The article presents the conference paper "Crisis Deferred: An Operational Code Analysis of Chinese Leaders Across the Strait" that was prepared for the "Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association" in Honolulu, Hawaii. It examines the beliefs and belief changes of China's President Chen Shuibian and Hu Jintao, chairman of the Chinese Central Military Committee, during the 2004 presidential election crisis. An operational code analysis of their beliefs and the subjective games in their belief systems are discussed.
The article looks at the future of cross-strait relations after the election of fourth-generation leaders in China in 2002. It cites that China has adopted a cool dealing strategy toward Taiwan after Chen Sui-bian was elected President in 2002 and condemned the defensive referendum proposed by the president. It argues that maintaining status quo in Taiwan Strait is the key to pursue the stability and peace in the strait. It explains the factors that resulted to the conflict in Taiwan Strait and the role played by the U.S. concerning the issue.
Published
2005
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