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Through an empirical investigation of the historical relationship between the destination climate and tourist arrivals in the Caribbean, this study presents the first revealed preference evaluation of a climate index informed by tourists' stated climatic preferences for coastal-beach tourism (i.e., a sun-sand-surf or 3S travel market). The goal of this multi-organization collaboration was to examine the potential application of a newly designed climate index—the Holiday Climate Index (HCI):Beach—for three Caribbean destinations (Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Saint Lucia). This paper provides an overview of the evolution of climate indices, including the development of the (HCI):Beach. To test the validity of climate indices for a beach travel market, daily climate ratings based on outputs from the Tourism Climate Index and the HCI were correlated with monthly arrivals data from Canada (a key source market) at an island destination scale. The results underscore the strength of the new index, with each destination scoring consistently higher using the HCI:Beach, including a stronger relationship (R2) between index scores and tourist arrivals. These findings demonstrate the value of combining stated and revealed preference methodologies to predict tourism demand and highlight opportunities for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea level rise (SLR) is considered a growing, certain and prominent consequence of anthropogenic climate change. Despite the high value of tourism properties and economic activity in the coastal zone, the tourism sector is largely absent from the SLR literature. This study created a geo-referenced database of 906 major coastal resort properties in 19 Caribbean Community (CARICOM) countries to assess their potential risk to a scenario of one-metre SLR. An estimated 266 (29%) resort properties would be partially or fully inundated by one-metre SLR; between 440 (49%) and 546 (60%) of resort properties would be at risk of beach erosion damage associated with the same SLR scenario. In addition, many resorts would experience significant losses of beach area prior to resort property loss. The vulnerability and the adaptive capacity of individual coastal tourism properties and destination communities is argued to differ substantially. Losses of over 50% of coastal properties are likely in five countries, three of which are highly dependent on tourism. These differentials would transform the competitive position and sustainability of coastal tourism destinations in the region, with important implications for property values, potential tourism revenues, insurance costs, destination marketing, as well as local and national economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]