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Projected climatic warming has direct implications for future disturbance regimes, particularly fire-dominated ecosystems at high latitudes, where climate warming is expected to be most dramatic. It is important to ascertain the potential range of climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, which is relevant to making projections of the response of the Earth system and to decisions by policymakers and land managers. Computer simulation models that explicitly model climate–fire relationships represent an important research tool for understanding and projecting future relationships. Retrospective model analyses of ecological models are important for evaluating how to effectively couple ecological models of fire dynamics with climate system models. This paper uses a transient landscape-level model of vegetation dynamics, Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code (ALFRESCO), to evaluate the influence of different driving datasets of climate on simulation results. Our analysis included the use of climate data based on first-order weather station observations from the Climate Research Unit (CRU), a statistical reanalysis from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis project (NCEP), and the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5). Model simulations of annual area burned for Alaska and western Canada were compared to historical fire activity (1950–2000). ALFRESCO was only able to generate reasonable simulation results when driven by the CRU climate data. Simulations driven by the NCEP and MM5 climate data produced almost no annual area burned because of substantially colder and wetter growing seasons (May–September) in comparison with the CRU climate data. The results of this study identify the importance of conducting retrospective analyses prior to coupling ecological models of fire dynamics with climate system models. The authors’ suggestion is to develop coupling methodologies that involve the use of anomalies from future climate model simulations to alter the climate data of more trusted historical climate datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results from a palaeoecological study to establish the impact of prehistoric human activity and climate change on the vegetation and soils of the Goualougo area of the Nouabalé-Ndoki National Park, in the Republic of Congo (Congo–Brazzaville). This is a region that is known from previous work (through evidence of pottery, furnaces and charcoal layers beneath the present day rainforest vegetation) to have had prehistoric settlement dating back to at least 2000 calibrated years before present. In addition, there is climatic evidence to suggest that significant variations in precipitation have occurred in central Africa over the last few millennia. Presently, the region is covered in uninhabited moist semi-evergreen rainforest. Key research questions addressed in this paper include the extent to which the present-day composition of rainforest in this region is as a result of processes of the past (climate change and/or human activity), and the resilience of the rainforest to these perturbations.Statistical analyses of pollen, microscopic charcoal and geochemical data are used to determine the relationship over time between vegetation dynamics and climate change, anthropogenic burning and metal smelting. Significant changes in forest composition are linked to burning and climate change but not metallurgy. The strongest influence on the present day composition appears to be related to the increased anthropogenic burning that started approximately 1000 years ago. Results from this study are discussed in terms of their implications for the present and future management of this globally important forested region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the effect of climate change (described in terms of temperature and rainfall) on forest cover and vegetation (described in terms of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) in the Betwa river basin, a tributary of River Yamuna in Central India. Temperature and rainfall data of 18 stations, forest cover and vegetation (derived using 5 years data from Landsat images employing ERDAS Imagine and ArcGIS) were used in the analysis. The effect of climate change was studied for both the premonsoon and post-monsoon seasons. In this study, the simple regression method was used to evaluate their relationship. In pre-monsoon season, temperature and forest cover analysis shows regression coefficient value of 0.6876 and, temperature and vegetation analysis shows regression coefficient value of 0.5751. Further, in post-monsoon season analysis rainfall and forest cover shows regression coefficient value of 0.8417 and, temperature and vegetation analysis shows regression coefficient value of 0.6854. The study reveals that, in pre-monsoon season temperature was significantly related with forest cover and vegetation. In postmonsoon season rainfall exhibited positive response to forest cover and, temperature exhibited negative response to vegetation in the Betwa river basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and the change of climate variables will eventually have a great impact on vegetation cover and agricultural practices, especially in the arid area Xinjiang in China, whose agriculture and ecosystems are heavily vulnerable to climate change. In this paper, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was used to study the vegetation growth and its response to climate change in Xinjiang. Firstly, two NDVI datasets (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)) were merged through a pixel-wise regression analysis to obtain a long time series of NDVI data, and then, relationships between yearly NDVI and yearly climate variables, and monthly NDVI and monthly climate variables were extensively investigated for grassland and cropland in northern and southern Xinjiang, respectively. Results show the following: (1) there was an increasing trend in NDVI for both grassland and cropland in both northern and southern Xinjiang over the past decades and trends were significant except that for grassland in northern Xinjiang; (2) precipitation and evaporation were more important than temperature for grassland in northern Xinjiang, while precipitation and temperature were more important than evaporation for grassland in southern Xinjiang and cropland in both northern and southern Xinjiang; (3) NDVI was highly correlated with accumulated monthly precipitation instead of monthly precipitation, and there was a lagged effect of precipitation, temperature, and evaporation on NDVI change. However, lagged effects were only significant in specific months. The results could be helpful to agricultural practices; e.g., based on lagged effect of precipitation, irrigation in July is very important for crop growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Time series of vegetation indices (VI) derived from satellite imagery provide a consistent monitoring system for terrestrial plant productivity. They enable detection and quantification of gradual changes within the time frame covered, which are of crucial importance in global change studies, for example. However, VI time series typically contain a strong seasonal signal which complicates change detection. Commonly, trends are quantified using linear regression methods, while the effect of serial autocorrelation is remediated by temporal aggregation over bins having a fixed width. Aggregating the data in this way produces temporal units which are modifiable. Analogous to the well-known Modifiable Area Unit Problem (MAUP), the way in which these temporal units are defined may influence the fitted model parameters and therefore the amount of change detected. This paper illustrates the effect of this Modifiable Temporal Unit Problem (MTUP) on a synthetic data set and a real VI data set. Large variation in detected changes was found for aggregation over bins that mismatched full lengths of vegetative cycles, which demonstrates that aperiodicity in the data may influence model results. Using 26 yr of VI data and aggregation over full-length periods, deviations in VI gains of less than 1% were found for annual periods (with respect to seasonally adjusted data), while deviations increased up to 24% for aggregation windows of 5 yr. This demonstrates that temporal aggregation needs to be carried out with care in order to avoid spurious model results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the stratigraphic occurrence of n -alkanes (C n) is investigated in three peat cores (Mildred, JPH4 and McMurray) from the ombrotrophic peatlands in northeastern Alberta, Canada, to determine their origin, biomass input, and paleoclimatic significance. The molecular composition of n -alkanes is dominated by the >C 21 medium- to long-chain homologues, with a strong odd over even predominance. A number of n -alkane-based indices (e.g. predominant n -alkane, C 23 /C 29 , C 23 /(C 27 + C 31), P aq , ACL, and CPI), show changing conditions in the organic matter (OM) input from Sphagnum species or terrestrial vascular plants, which increasingly contributed upwards in the peat profiles, and through time. P aq and C 23 /(C 27 + C 31) proxies are similar in the three cores, and allow us to infer vegetation variations that coincide with the climate alternations of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), Little Ice Age (LIA), and modern Recent Warming (RW). The utilization of ACL-ket and (C 23 + C 25)/(C 27 + C 29 + C 31)-ket proxies, performed in comparison with n -alkane proxies, further support the biomarker-based reconstructions of paleoclimate variations over recent centuries. This study suggests that n -alkane homologues are sensitive to vegetation and climate changes and thus are reliable biomarkers for tracking past shifts in vegetation and climate variations in peat archives. • Determine organic matter source of peat sediments from n -alkane biomarkers. • C 23 /(C 27 +C 31) n -alkane proxy is proposed and can effectively characterize climate changes. • P aq proxy indication could be misleading when the contribution of Sphagnum fuscum to the peat is large. • n -Alkan-2-one proxy is studied to further confirm the biomarker-based reconstruction of paleoclimatic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents empirical evidence of historical vegetation and climate change in the arid Pro-Namib and hyper-arid Namib Desert spanning the late 19th century to the present based on one hundred archival landscape photographs that have been re-photographed or 'matched'. Each photo site was evaluated for changes in woody cover and taken together serve as a proxy for how climate has changed in the region. Vegetation change was related to values for precipitation and temperature derived from the Global Land Data Assimilation System for the period 1948–2017 as well as the number of fog days expected at a site. The resulting analysis reveals a trend of increased vegetation cover associated with increased precipitation (fog and rain) in the coastal Fogbelt and the inland Savanna transition with a shrinking of the hyper-arid Minimum zone between the two. These findings accord with projected effects of global warming on the Benguela upwelling system but are at variance with regional climate model forecasts that project widespread aridification. In the absence of long-term climate data, the results of this research are an important contribution of evidence-based knowledge of past climate trends and their relationship to future climate change scenarios for the region. • Global change models predict Namibia becoming hotter leading to aridification. • We used historical photos of the Pro-Namib and Namib Desert to test this forecast. • Correlations between historical climate values and vegetation change were analysed. • Contrary to expectations, woody plant cover has increased at most locations. • Past trends of increased rainfall and fog predict environmental futures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Vegetation affects water balance of the land surface by e.g. storage of precipitation water in the canopy and soil water extraction by transpiration. Therefore, it is essential to consider the role of vegetation in affecting water balance by taking into account the temporal dynamics of e.g. leaf area index, rooting depth and stomatal conductance in hydrological models. However until now, most conceptual hydrological models do not treat vegetation as a dynamic component. This paper presents an analysis of the effects of the application of two different complex vegetation models combined with a hydrological model on the model outputs evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge. Both model combinations were used for the assessment of the effects of climate change on water balance in a mesoscale catchment loctated in the Northeastern German Lowlands. One vegetation model assumes a static vegetation development independent from environmental conditions. The other vegetation model calculates dynamic development of vegetation based on photosynthesis, respiration, allocation, and phenology. The analysis of the results obtained from both model combinations indicated the importance of taking into account vegetation dynamics in hydrological models especially if such models are used for the assessment of the impacts of climate change on water balance components. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Sahel belt of Africa has been the focus of intensive scientific research since the 1960s, spurred on by the chronic vulnerability of its population to recurring drought and the threat of long-term land degradation. But satellite sensors have recently shown that much of the region has experienced significant increases in photosynthetic activity since the early 1980s, thus re-energizing long-standing debates about the role that people play in shaping land surface status, and thus climate at regional scales. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that people have had a measurable impact on vegetation dynamics in the Sahel for the period 1982-2002. We compare potential natural vegetation dynamics predicted by a process-based ecosystem model with satellite-derived greenness observations, and map the agreement between the two across a geographic grid at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. As aggregated data-model agreement is very good, any local differences between the two could be due to human impact. We then relate this agreement metric to state-of-the-art data sets on demographics, pasture, and cropping. Our findings suggest that demographic and agricultural pressures in the Sahel are unable to account for differences between simulated and observed vegetation dynamics, even for the most densely populated areas. But we do identify a weak, positive correlation between data-model agreement and pasture intensity at the Sahel-wide level. This indicates that herding or grazing does not appreciably affect vegetation dynamics in the region. Either people have not had a significant impact on vegetation dynamics in the Sahel or the identification of a human "footprint" is precluded by inconsistent or subtle vegetation response to complex socio-environmental interactions, and/or limitations in the data used for this study. We do not exclude the possibility of a greater human influence on vegetation dynamics over the coming decades with changing land use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the coastal lowlands of Mozambique, an expansion of savannas at the cost of forests has been attributed to anthropogenic influence. There are few investigations that have studied vegetation dynamics over the long term. Pollen analysis from two sedimentary cores in the Chibuene area, 7 km south of Vilanculos presented in this paper show that the coastal area 1600 years ago consisted of a mosaic of forests, Miombo woodlands and grasslands. The data also show that the area supported extensive forests in the past until AD 1400-1600 when the forests declined dramatically. Changing settlement patterns, as suggested from archaeological excavations, cannot be correlated with the forest decline and the charcoal abundance, in the sedimentary cores does not suggest an intensification of farming. Instead the decline of forests appears to be temporally correlated with a prolonged period of repeated dry spells associated with the 'Little Ice Age', which caused a shift in vegetation whereby typical forest species as Trema, Celtis and Moraceae were outcompeted on account of the droughts. This study challenges rooted assumptions about the cause of decline of forests in the coastal region. It also suggests that the forest fragments present on the Mozambique coast today are naturally subject to threat from climatic stress and as such are highly sensitive areas to future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent climatic changes have affected terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP). This paper presents an investigation of the impact of climatic changes on Chinese terrestrial vegetation NPP by analyzing 18 years' (1982 to 1999) climatic data and satellite observations of vegetation activity. Results indicate that climatic changes in China have eased some critical climatic constraint on plant growth. (1) From 1982 to 1999, modeled NPP increased by 1.42% · a-1 in water-limited regions of Northwest China, 1.46% · a-1 in temperature-limited regions of Northeast China and Tibet Plateau, and 0.99% · a-1 in radiation-limited regions of South China and East China. (2) NPP increased by 24.2%, i.e. 0.76 petagram of carbon (Pg C) over 18 years in China. Changes in climate (with constant vegetation) directly contributed nearly 11.5% (0.36 Pg C). Changes in vegetation (with constant climate) contributed 12.4% (0.40 Pg C), possibly as a result of climate-vegetation feedbacks, changes in land use, and growth stimulation from other mechanisms. (3) Globally, NPP declined during all three major El Niño events (1982 to 1983, 1987 to 1988, and 1997 to 1998) between 1982 and 2000, but Chinese vegetation productivity responded differently to them because of the monsoon dynamics. In the first three events (1982 to 1983, 1987 to 1988, and 1992), Chinese vegetation NPP declined, while in the later two events (1993, 1997 to 1998) increasing obviously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the mid- to late-Holocene (c. 6850-1160 cal. yr BP) environmental history of Sierra de Gádor in southern Spain. The local vegetation dynamics are reconstructed through the palaeoecological record obtained from a lacustrine deposit situated at 1530 m. Various hypotheses are considered to explain the vegetation dynamics apparent in the palaeoecological evidence, including climatic change, fire occurrence and human activity. Although the vegetation in this region is sensitive to climatic change, threshold events driven by ecological factors are also apparent. Climatic events include a thermo-mesophytic optimum with abundance of deciduous trees and maximum lake water level found from c. 6850 to 5500 cal. yr BP. In contrast, changes in the frequency of major fire episodes appear to have shaped interspecific relationships and vegetation change, especially from c. 4200 cal. yr BP onwards. Biotic properties of the ecosystem such as the inertia of established tree populations, interconnected with competition adjustments, appear also to have played a role. Over the last two millennia, overgrazing, combined with natural and/or human-set fires, appears to have pushed mountain forests over a threshold leading to the spread of grassland, thorny scrub, junipers and nitrophilous communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to reconstruct the variation in the vegetation during the Holocene on the Northern Meseta through pollen analysis in order to determine the roles played by Pinus and Quercus in the vegetation dynamics. A new pollen sequence, Camporredondo, in the centre of the Duero River basin, Northern Meseta, Spain, is presented. It covers the period from ca 11,250 to 1630 cal yr BP. The Camporredondo sequence suggests that a forested landscape existed from the start of the Holocene with values of approximately 90% of arboreal pollen mainly derived from pine forests in the surroundings. Shortly after 8600 cal yr BP pine forests continued to dominate but the landscape became more open while stands of deciduous and evergreen Quercus developed. Around 4500 years ago, coinciding with the start of a period of less rainfall, the lacustrine areas in these territories began to silt up, favouring hydrophytic taxa such as Salix or Cyperaceae. A comparison with other Holocene pollen sequences from the central-eastern part of the Northern Meseta confirms the presence of pine forests in the whole region since the early Holocene. We discuss the variations of the general vegetation pattern in terms of the local or regional conditions at each site. Throughout the Holocene, Pinus forests dominated at least in the eastern half of the Duero River basin. The typical Holocene substitution of conifers by broadleaf species as recorded in other parts of the Iberian Peninsula and Europe, never takes place in the study area. The results of the present study suggest that the current view of the potential vegetation in the Spanish Northern Meseta should be reviewed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Quantifying the historical range and variability of landscape composition and structure using simulation modeling is becoming an important means of assessing current landscape condition and prioritizing landscapes for ecosystem restoration. However, most simulated time series are generated using static climate conditions which fail to account for the predicted major changes in future climate. This paper presents a simulation study that generates reference landscape compositions for all combinations of three climate scenarios (warm-wet, hot-dry, and current) and three fire regime scenarios (half historical, historical, and double historical fire frequencies) to determine if future climate change has an effect on landscape dynamics. We applied the spatially explicit, state-and-transition, landscape fire succession model LANDSUM to two large landscapes in west-central Montana, USA. LANDSUM was parameterized and initialized using spatial data generated from the LANDFIRE prototype project. Biophysical settings, critical spatial inputs to LANDSUM, were empirically modeled across the landscape using environmental gradients created from historical and modeled future climate daily weather data summaries. Successional pathways and disturbance probabilities were assigned to these biophysical settings based on existing field data and extensive literature reviews. To assess the impact of changes in climate and fire regime, we compared simulated area burned and landscape composition over time among the different simulation scenario combinations using response variables of Sorenson''s index (a global measure of similarity) and area occupied by the dominant vegetation class (simple indicator of change in landscape composition). Results show that simulated time series using future predicted climate scenarios are significantly different from the simulated historical time series and any changes in the fire regime tend to create more dissimilar and more variable simulated time series. Our study results indicate that historical time series should be used in conjunction with simulated future time series as references for managing landscapes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to illustrate the importance of variation in water availability to temporal variation in vegetation dynamics in arid and semi-arid ecosystems. We hypothesize that fine-scale pulses of precipitation interact with longer scale variation in climate and weather to generate temporal variation in plant community composition. Arid and semi-arid regions exhibit great temporal variability in water availability as a result of variation in climate and weather at multiple scales and vegetation-soil water feedbacks. The scales of variation include: shifting climate regimes over centuries and decades, inter-annual variation in weather patterns, seasonal differences in winter and summer precipitation, and within-season variability in precipitation frequency and magnitude. In arid and semi-arid regions, pulses of rainfall are separated by intervening dry periods of variable lengths. This situation results in fluctuating availability of water that limits plant production and controls other ecological processes, such as rates of nutrient cycling. In some semi-arid and arid systems, temporal variation in water availability may create positive feedbacks that facilitate encroachment of C3 woody plant species into areas formerly dominated by C4 grasses. Our ability to predict these complex shifts in vegetation composition may be improved by including temporal variation in climate, weather, and ecosystem processes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The new pollen record from the upper 12.75 m of a sediment core obtained in Lake Ladoga documents regional vegetation and climate changes in northwestern Russia over the last 13.9 cal. ka. The Lateglacial chronostratigraphy is based on varve chronology, while the Holocene stratigraphy is based on AMS14C and OSL dates, supported by comparison with regional pollen records. During the Lateglacial (c. 13.9–11.2 cal. ka BP), the Lake Ladoga region experienced several climatic fluctuations as reflected in vegetation changes. Shrub and grass communities dominated between c. 13.9 and 13.2 cal. ka BP. The increase in Picea pollen at c. 13.2 cal. ka BP probably reflects the appearance of spruce in the southern Ladoga region at the beginning of the Allerød interstadial. After c. 12.6 cal. ka BP, the Younger Dryas cooling caused a significant decrease in spruce and increase in Artemisia with other herbs, indicative of tundra‐ and steppe‐like vegetation. A sharp transition from tundra‐steppe habitats to sparse birch forests characterizes the onset of Holocene warming c. 11.2 cal. ka BP. Pine forests dominated in the region from c. 9.0 to 8.1 cal. ka BP. The most favourable climatic conditions for deciduous broad‐leaved taxa existed between c. 8.1 and 5.5 cal. ka BP. Alder experiences an abrupt increase in the local vegetation c. 7.8 cal. ka BP. The decrease in tree pollen taxa (especially Picea) and the increase in herbs (mainly Poaceae) probably reflect human activity during the last 2.2 cal. ka. Pine forests have dominated the region since that time. Secale and other Cerealia pollen as well as ruderal herbs are permanently recorded since c. 0.8 cal. ka BP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Rapid changes in the composition of hillslope vegetation due to a combination of changing climate and land use make estimating slope stability a significant challenge. The dynamics of root growth on any individual hillslope result in a wide range of root distributions and strengths that are reflected as up to an order of magnitude variability in root cohesion. Hence the challenge of predicting the magnitude of root reinforcement for hillslopes requires both an understanding of the magnitude and variability of root distributions and material properties (e.g. tensile strength, elasticity). Here I develop a model for estimating the reinforcement provided by plant roots based on the distribution of biomass measured at the biome level and a compilation of root tensile strength measurements measured across a range of vegetation types. The model modifies the Wu/Waldron method of calculating root cohesion to calculate the average lateral root cohesion and its variability with depth using the Monte Carlo method. The model was validated in two ways, the first against the predicted depth‐reinforcement characteristics of Appalachian soils and the second using a global dataset of landslides. Model results suggest that the order of magnitude difference in root cohesions measured on individual hillslopes can be captured by the Monte Carlo approach and provide a simple tool to estimate root reinforcement for data‐poor areas. The model also suggests that future hotspots of slope instability will occur in areas where land use and climate convert forest to grassland, rather than changes between different forest structures or forest and shrubland. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paleoecological records are an important source of data to better understand ecological responses to climate. To help understand vegetation-climate relationships in the Great Basin cold desert of North America, we analyzed 154 plant taxa from 52 fossil woodrat middens that spanned both an 800-m elevation gradient and the last 35,000 yr (35 ka) within a single study area. Vegetation was analyzed by community assemblage (CA), by plant functional type, and by individual species. Concordant with a predominant trend of increased aridity since glacial maximum, CA change was largely unidirectional despite centennial-scale cycles of climate variation. Richness of forb and other herbaceous plant functional types peaked from 15 to 26 ka during glacial maximum and then gradually decreased from ~15 ka to present. Analysis of individual taxa indicates that once a herbaceous species was lost from the study area, that species did not re-occur. In contrast, woody (shrubs and trees) species richness peaked from 8 to 15 ka during and following the Bolling-Allerod rapid warming. However, most tree taxa that established during this period of warming were subsequently lost as climate became more arid after the beginning of Mid-Holocene Temperature Maximum warming ~8 ka. These shifts in plant functional types decreased relative richness of forbs compared to shrubs (i.e., decreased forb/shrub ratio), and these shifts continue to the present despite intervening cycles of climate cooling and warming. We conclude that the relative importance of herbaceous species in current CAs of the Great Basin cold desert has been decreasing for the last 15 ka. We also speculate that decreased richness of herbaceous species has, in part, provided opportunities for exotic species to establish and proliferate in the Great Basin during the last 100 yr. Thus, observations of past vegetation change suggest that increased aridity with future climate warming will continue to favor woody vegetation over herbaceous species at our cold desert locale, at least until invasive species displace native shrub species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfire area is predicted to increase with global warming. Empirical statistical models and process-based simulations agree almost universally. The key relationship for this unanimity, observed at multiple spatial and temporal scales, is between drought and fire. Predictive models often focus on ecosystems in which this relationship appears to be particularly strong, such as mesic and arid forests and shrublands with substantial biomass such as chaparral. We examine the drought-fire relationship, specifically the correlations between water-balance deficit and annual area burned, across the full gradient of deficit in the western USA, from temperate rainforest to desert. In the middle of this gradient, conditional on vegetation (fuels), correlations are strong, but outside this range the equivalence hotter and drier equals more fire either breaks down or is contingent on other factors such as previous-year climate. This suggests that the regional drought-fire dynamic will not be stationary in future climate, nor will other more complex contingencies associated with the variation in fire extent. Predictions of future wildfire area therefore need to consider not only vegetation changes, as some dynamic vegetation models now do, but also potential changes in the drought-fire dynamic that will ensue in a warming climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Asia-Pacific (AP) region has experienced faster warming than the global average in recent decades and has experienced more climate extremes, however little is known about the response of vegetation growth to these changes. The updated Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies third-generation global satellite Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index dataset and gridded reanalysis climate data were used to investigate the spatiotemporal changes in both trends of vegetation dynamic indicators and climatic variables. We then further analyzed their relations associated with land cover across the AP region. The main findings are threefold: (1) at continental scales the AP region overall experienced a gradual and significant increasing trend in vegetation growth during the last three decades, and this NDVI trend corresponded with an insignificant increasing trend in temperature; (2) vegetation growth was negatively and significantly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in AP; and (3) at pixel scales, except for Australia, both vegetation growth and air temperature significantly increased in the majority of study regions and vegetation growth spatially correlated with temperature; In Australia and other water-limited regions vegetation growth positively correlated with precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Long-term remote sensing normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) datasets have been widely used in monitoring vegetation changes. In this study, the NASA Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) NDVI3g dataset was used as the data source, and the dimidiate pixel model, intensity analysis, and residual analysis were used to analyze the changes of vegetation coverage in Inner Mongolia--from 1982 to 2010--and their relationships with climate and human activities. This study also explored vegetation changes in Inner Mongolia with respect to natural factors and human activities. The results showed that the estimated vegetation coverage exhibited a high correlation (0.836) with the actual measured values. The increased vegetation coverage area (49.2% of the total area) was larger than the decreased area (43.3%) from the 1980s to the 1990s, whereas the decreased area (57.1%) was larger than the increased area (35.6%) from the 1990s to the early 21st century. This finding indicates that vegetation growth in the 1990s was better than that in the other two decades. Intensity analysis revealed that changes in the average annual rate from the 1990s to the early 21st century were relatively faster than those in the 1980s-1990s. During the 1980s-1990s, the gain of high vegetation coverage areas was active, and the loss was dormant; in contrast, the gain and loss of low vegetation coverage areas were both dormant. In the 1990s to the early 21st century, the gains of high and low vegetation coverage areas were both dormant, whereas the losses were active. During the study period, areas of low vegetation coverage were converted into ones with higher coverage, and areas of high vegetation coverage were converted into ones with lower coverage. The vegetation coverage exhibited a good correlation (R² = 0.60) with precipitation, and the positively correlated area was larger than the negatively correlated area. Human activities not only promote the vegetation coverage, but also have a destructive effect on vegetation, and the promotion effect during 1982 to 2000 was larger than from 2001 to 2010, while, the destructive effect was larger from 2000 to 2010. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grapevine varietal suitability is strongly linked to regional environmental conditions and growers tend to select varieties that are best suited to these conditions. A high agreement between current growing regions and optimal climatic zones is thus anticipated for a given variety. A changing climate is, however, expected to impose new challenges to this long-term varietal selection. The present research examines the spatial distribution of the main grapevine varieties in Portugal, establishing current and future optimal climatic zones for each variety. The spatial locations of 44 varieties are assessed, and their growing degree-day (GDD) requirements are computed using a high resolution climatic dataset (<1 km). A clustering methodology is applied to the spatial patterns of the optimal GDD of each variety, leading to three varietal groupings (early, intermediate and late). Future changes (2041-2060) in those patterns are then analysed using a 17 model-ensemble and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). Results indicate that Portuguese varieties have high adaptability, because they are grown over a large range of thermal conditions. Although the three clusters provide a good agreement with the current growth conditions, a strong warming trend is projected in the future, resulting in projections of a northward shift and move to higher elevations for the cluster patterns. Hence, other European regions may experience improved growing conditions for the settlement of these Portuguese varieties. Nonetheless, future varietal selection will heavily depend on the interest of winemakers and global market policies for the production of specific wines. Adaptation measures may indeed be required for maintaining the current varietal distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, the monitoring of vegetation dynamics has become crucial because of its important role in terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, a satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was combined with climate factors to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation change during the growing season, as well as their driving forces in China from 2001 to 2012. Our results showed that the growing season NDVI increased continuously during 2001-2012, with a linear trend of 1.4%/10 years (p < 0.01). The NDVI in north China mainly exhibited an increasing spatial trend, but this trend was generally decreasing in south China. The vegetation dynamics were mainly at a moderate intensity level in both the increasing and decreasing areas. The significantly increasing trend in the NDVI for arid and semi-arid areas of northwest China was attributed mainly to an increasing trend in the NDVI during the spring, whereas that for the north and northeast of China was due to an increasing trend in the NDVI during the summer and autumn. Different vegetation types exhibited great variation in their trends, where the grassforb community had the highest linear trend of 2%/10 years (p < 0.05), followed by meadow, and needle-leaf forest with the lowest increasing trend, i.e., a linear trend of 0.3%/10 years. Our results also suggested that the cumulative precipitation during the growing season had a dominant effect on the vegetation dynamics compared with temperature for all six vegetation types. In addition, the response of different vegetation types to climate variability exhibited considerable differences. In terms of anthropological activity, our statistical analyses showed that there was a strong correlation between the cumulative afforestation area and NDVI during the study period, especially in a pilot region for ecological restoration, thereby suggesting the important role of ecological restoration programs in ecological recovery throughout China in the last decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landscape-scale vulnerability assessment from multiple sources, including paleoecological site histories, can inform climate change adaptation. We used an array of lake sediment pollen and charcoal records to determine how soils and landscape factors influenced the variability of forest composition change over the past 2000 years. The forests in this study are located in northwestern Wisconsin on a sandy glacial outwash plain. Soils and local climate vary across the study area. We used the Natural Resource Conservation Service's Soil Survey Geographic soil database and published fire histories to characterize differences in soils and fire history around each lake site. individual site histories differed in two metrics of past vegetation dynamics: the extent to which white pine (Pinus strobus) increased during the Little Ice Age (LIA) climate period and the volatility in the rate of change between samples at 50- 120 yr intervals. Greater increases of white pine during the LIA occurred on sites with less sandy soils (R² = 0.45, P < 0.0163) and on sites with relatively warmer and drier local climate (R² = 0.55, P < 0.0056). Volatility in the rate of change between samples was positively associated with LIA fire frequency (R² = 0.41, P < 0.0256). Over multi-decadal to centennial timescales, forest compositional change and rate-of-change volatility were associated with higher fire frequency. Over longer (multi-centennial) time frames, forest composition change, especially increased white pine, shifted most in sites with more soil moisture. Our results show that responsiveness of forest composition to climate change was influenced by soils, local climate, and fire. The anticipated climatic changes in the next century will not produce the same community dynamics on the same soil types as in the past, but understanding past dynamics and relationships can help us assess how novel factors and combinations of factors in the future may influence various site types. Our results support climate change adaptation efforts to monitor and conserve the landscape's full range of geophysical features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long- and short-term climate variations in the North Atlantic have been of sufficient magnitude to leave a discernible mark on the history of vegetation and landscape stability in Iceland during the Holocene. A reconstruction of early- and mid-Holocene vegetation around Lake Kagaðarhóll, Northwest Iceland, examines how climate fluctuations have affected the terrestrial ecosystem. A thorough reconstruction has been made using pollen and plant macrofossil analyses combined with proxies for organic and inorganic matter. The record shows the development from a period of pioneer vegetation towards a woodland ecosystem. The deposition of the Saksunarvatn tephra at c. 10,300 cal. yr BP caused a 100-year period of instability, followed by a gradual trend of stabilization over several centuries while material left behind by retreating glaciers and tephra was being contained by expanding and developing vegetation. Early-Holocene warmth is indicated by high pollen production of Juniperus communis around the lake by c. 10,100 cal. yr BP and birch woodland being established around the lake by c. 9200 cal. yr BP, much earlier than previously believed for this locale. Cooling climate between c. 8700 and 8200 cal. yr BP halted woodland development, with reduced plant reproduction likely caused by cold spring and summer temperatures. Woodlands became re-established from c. 7900 cal. yr BP before entering a decline from c. 6000 cal. yr BP, with harsher environmental conditions apparent after c. 4200 cal. yr BP. The Kagaðarhóll record compares favourably with other palaeoclimatic data from the North Atlantic, demonstrating the potential of pollen and macrofossil data for reconstructions of environmental change in Iceland and as an indicator of climate variability in the North Atlantic during the Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantitative vegetation models combined with fossil pollen records have large potentials for assessing long-term vegetation dynamics. In this study, vegetation cover as a function of July temperatures was modelled for the Dividalen valley area situated in the northern Scandinavian Mountains. Site-specific pollen deposition values of the two dominating tree species pine and birch were simulated and compared with empirical fossil pollen values. The applied vegetation model could not explain the forest dynamics prior to 7400 cal. BP, although after this date, the forest seemed to have received a modern structure, and summer temperatures could potentially explain the long-term variations in forest cover. The most extensive forest cover occurred c. 7400–3800 cal. BP, corresponding to July temperatures of 0.5–1°C above the present. The approach proved sensitive to both site location and data quality. Careful site-selection is of importance for the application, and pollen accumulation rates are to be preferred as pollen percentage values proved problematic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A pollen diagram from Lac Brulé in southwestern Québec (45°43′09″N, 75°26′32″W, 270 m) provides a late Holocene history of the vegetation. The presence of varved sediments permitted the development of a high-resolution (10-year), cross-dated chronology with an estimated error of approximately 1%. During the last 1400 years, the forests were dominated by Tsuga, Fagus, Betula, Acer and Pinus. A peak in microcharcoal and evidence of post-fire succession suggest that the changes in the pollen assemblages around ad 1375 were a consequence of a fire in the region. There was a decrease in pollen influx of several deciduous taxa and Tsuga between ad 1600 and 1700, suggesting a rapid climate change that was significant enough to have affected pollen production of these taxa. This change, associated with the beginning of the ‘Little Ice Age’ in the region, affected the forest composition for the subsequent centuries. A detailed comparison of this pollen record with that from a nearby pollen diagram also prepared at high-temporal resolution shows the ability of pollen records to record short-period climate variations and disturbances. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Ecologists have long been concerned that contemporary fire regimes of central Australia have poor consequences for some plant species, vegetation communities and the native animals they support. Fire frequency, size and intensity (the 'fire regime') have all been implicated in the decline of native biota and in vegetation changes that potentially constitute ecological drift. However, not all perceived declines and changes are quantified or proven. The fire regimes themselves defy quantification and are arguably unknowable. We examine the relationships between fire, vegetation and the physical landscape and consider the adequacy of available knowledge for guiding fire management. Devising targeted 'fire management regimes', which take into account vegetation type and management objectives such as pastoral production, conservation and cultural observance, and which actively use fire to achieve those objectives, is a more realistic goal than controlling unquantifiable fire regimes in spatially diverse landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Models of vegetation dynamics that are designed for application at spatial scales larger than individual forest gaps suffer from several limitations. Typically, either a population average approximation is used that results in unrealistic tree allometry and forest stand structure, or models have a high computational demand because they need to simulate both a series of age-based cohorts and a number of replicate patches to account for stochastic gap-scale disturbances. The detail required by the latter method increases the number of calculations by two to three orders of magnitude compared to the less realistic population average approach. In an effort to increase the efficiency of dynamic vegetation models without sacrificing realism, we developed a new method for simulating stand-replacing disturbances that is both accurate and faster than approaches that use replicate patches. The GAPPARD (approximating GAP model results with a Probabilistic Approach to account for stand Replacing Disturbances) method works by postprocessing the output of deterministic, undisturbed simulations of a cohort-based vegetation model by deriving the distribution of patch ages at any point in time on the basis of a disturbance probability. With this distribution, the expected value of any output variable can be calculated from the output values of the deterministic undisturbed run at the time corresponding to the patch age. To account for temporal changes in model forcing (e.g., as a result of climate change), GAPPARD performs a series of deterministic simulations and interpolates between the results in the postprocessing step. We integrated the GAPPARD method in the vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, and evaluated it in a series of simulations along an altitudinal transect of an inner-Alpine valley. We obtained results very similar to the output of the original LPJ-GUESS model that uses 100 replicate patches, but simulation time was reduced by approximately the factor 10. Our new method is therefore highly suited for rapidly approximating LPJ-GUESS results, and provides the opportunity for future studies over large spatial domains, allows easier parameterization of tree species, faster identification of areas of interesting simulation results, and comparisons with large-scale datasets and results of other forest models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A long-term, consistent Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR) product is necessary to study the spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation dynamics associated with climatic changes and human activities. In this study, Eurasia was selected as the study area. The relationship between FPAR and simple infrared/red ratio relationship (SR FPAR), and that between Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) FPAR and a Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) look-up table (LUT FPAR) were employed to estimate FPAR from 1982 to 2006 by different land cover types, focusing on the comparisons of spatiotemporal FPAR patterns between the two FPAR datasets. The results showed high agreement between MODIS standard FPAR and estimated FPAR in seasonal dynamics with peak values in July. The LUT FPAR was close to MODIS standard FPAR and larger than SR FPAR. The SR and LUT FPAR showed the same spatial distribution and inter-annual variation patterns and were primarily determined by land cover types. An overall increasing trend in FPAR was observed from 1982 to 2006, with reductions from 1991 to 1994 and 2000 to 2002. The inter-annual dynamics in evergreen broadleaf forests showed a decreasing trend over 25 years, while non-forest vegetation FPAR values had slow, stable growth in inter-annual variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study which describes the modelling of carbon fluxes and vegetation dynamics in version 2.2 of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). Several features of the JULES are highlighted which include a coupled scheme of leaf photosynthesis, a canopy scheme for light interception and a description of methane emissions. It concludes that the JULES model is well-suited in studies about the carbon cycle and climate change.

Current predictions of how species will respond to climate change are typically based on coarse-grained climate surfaces utilizing bioclimate envelope modelling. However, the suitability of environmental conditions for a given species might result from a variety of factors including some unrelated to climate. To address this issue, we investigated whether the inclusion of topographical and soil information in bioclimatic envelope models would significantly alter predictions of climate change-induced fine-scale tree and shrub species range size changes at the tree-limit in subarctic Europe. Using generalized additive models and data on current climate and species distributions and three different climate scenarios for the period 2040-2069, we developed predictions of the currently suitable area and potential range size changes of seven tree and shrub species in an area of 1,100 km at a resolution of 1-ha. The inclusion of topography and soil information increased the predictive accuracy of climate-only models for all studied species. The predicted changes in species distribution volumes were contradictory, and the predicted occurrences varied greatly depending on the model used. Our results therefore support the arguments that vegetation responses to climate change can be influenced by local environmental conditions and that attention should be paid to the combined effects of these factors. We conclude that disregarding local topography and soil conditions in bioclimatic models may result in biased projections of range expansions and the associated colonization, extinction and turnover assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extensive studies have investigated the relationships between climate change and vegetation dynamics. However, the geographic controls on vegetation dynamics are rarely studied. In this study, the geographic controls on the trends and variation of vegetation greenness in middle and eastern Inner Mongolia, China (mid-eastern Inner Mongolia) were investigated. The SPOT VEGETATION 10-day period synthesis archive of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 1999 to 2007 was used for this study. First, the maximum value compositing (MVC) method was applied to derive monthly maximum NDVI (MNDVI), and then yearly mean NDVI (YMNDVI) was calculated by averaging the MNDVIs. The greenness rate of change (GRC) and the coefficient of variation (CV) were used to monitor the trends and variation in YMNDVI at each raster grid for different vegetation types, which were determined from a land use dataset at a scale of 1:100,000, interpreted from Landsat TM images in 2000. The possible effects of geographic factors including elevation, slope and aspect on GRC and CV for three main vegetation types (cropland, forest and steppe) were analyzed. The results indicate that the average NDVI values during the 9-year study period for steppe, forest and cropland were 0.26, 0.41 and 0.32, respectively; while the GRC was 0.008, 0.042 and 0.033 per decade, respectively; and CVs were 10.2, 4.8 and 7.1%, respectively. Cropland and steppe shared a similar trend in NDVI variation, with both decreasing initially and then increasing over the study period. The forest YMNDVI increased throughout the study period. The GRCs of the forest also increased, although GRCs for cropland and steppe decreased with increasing elevation. The GRCs of cropland and steppe increased with increasing slope, but the forest GRCs were not as closely related to slope. All three vegetation types exhibited the same effects in that the GRC was larger on north-facing (shady) slopes than south-facing slopes due to differences in water conditions. The CVs of the three vegetation types showed different features to the GRC. The CVs for all three vegetation types were not affected by aspect. The CVs for forest and cropland showed minor effects with changes in elevation and slope, but the CV for steppe decreased with increasing slope, and increased with increasing elevations to 1,200 m, before decreasing at higher elevations. Our findings suggest that the role of geographic factors in controlling GRC should also be considered alongside climate factors . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the role of vegetation dynamics in regional predictions of future climate change in western Africa using a dynamic vegetation model asynchronously coupled to a regional climate model. Two experiments, one for present day and one for future, are conducted with the linked regional climate-vegetation model, and the third with the regional climate model standing alone that predicts future climate based on present-day vegetation. These simulations are so designed in order to tease out the impact of structural vegetation feedback on simulated climate and hydrological processes. According to future predictions by the regional climate-vegetation model, increase in LAI is widespread, with significant shift in vegetation type. Over the Guinean Coast in 2084-2093, evergreen tree coverage decreases by 49% compared to 1984-1993, while drought deciduous tree coverage increases by 56%. Over the Sahel region in the same period, grass cover increases by 31%. Such vegetation changes are accompanied by a decrease of JJA rainfall by 2% over the Guinean Coast and an increase by 23% over the Sahel. This rather small decrease or large increase of precipitation is largely attributable to the role of vegetation feedback. Without the feedback effect from vegetation, the regional climate model would have predicted a 5% decrease of JJA rainfall in both the Guinean Coast and the Sahel as a result of the radiative and physiological effects of higher atmospheric CO concentration. These results demonstrate that climate- and CO-induced changes in vegetation structure modify hydrological processes and climate at magnitudes comparable to or even higher than the radiative and physiological effects, thus evincing the importance of including vegetation feedback in future climate predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change science is increasingly concerned with methods for managing and integrating sources of uncertainty from emission storylines, climate model projections, and ecosystem model parameterizations. In tropical ecosystems, regional climate projections and modeled ecosystem responses vary greatly, leading to a significant source of uncertainty in global biogeochemical accounting and possible future climate feedbacks. Here, we combine an ensemble of IPCC-AR4 climate change projections for the Amazon Basin (eight general circulation models) with alternative ecosystem parameter sets for the dynamic global vegetation model, LPJmL. We evaluate LPJmL simulations of carbon stocks and fluxes against flux tower and aboveground biomass datasets for individual sites and the entire basin. Variability in LPJmL model sensitivity to future climate change is primarily related to light and water limitations through biochemical and water-balance-related parameters. Temperature-dependent parameters related to plant respiration and photosynthesis appear to be less important than vegetation dynamics (and their parameters) for determining the magnitude of ecosystem response to climate change. Variance partitioning approaches reveal that relationships between uncertainty from ecosystem dynamics and climate projections are dependent on geographic location and the targeted ecosystem process. Parameter uncertainty from the LPJmL model does not affect the trajectory of ecosystem response for a given climate change scenario and the primary source of uncertainty for Amazon ‘dieback’ results from the uncertainty among climate projections. Our approach for describing uncertainty is applicable for informing and prioritizing policy options related to mitigation and adaptation where long-term investments are required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this work was to test the hypotheses that the species composition of the vegetation of one pool in Morocco change continuously along with rainfall fluctuations, that among the vegetation can be recognized Pool species and Opportunistic species with distinct dynamics in time. We expected the Pool species to show lower inter-annual variation than the Opportunistic species. This hypothesis was tested in a 10-year study of the species composition of the vegetation along two permanent transects. The results showed high cumulative species richness (95 species) with large differences between years and a predominance of annual species (77). The proportion of Pool species during these 10 years was low (39%) when compared to opportunists (61%). In dry years the Opportunistic species were dominant and declined during wet years. The number of Pool species was correlated with the amount of rainfall. A large number of these species revealed a preference for wet years. No negative interaction between annuals/perennials and pools/non-pools species was found, suggesting that competition was not a major process during the survey. The intensity of the drought and flood stress, related to climate fluctuations, seems to be the main factors controlling the species composition of the vegetation of this unstable habitat. However, beyond the inter-annual fluctuation of the species composition of the vegetation a directional change was noticed. This directional change could result from a recovery process of the vegetation during the first years of the study after a severe flood which extirpated most of the Opportunistic species of the pool. In the last years this directional change of the species composition of the vegetation is less clear and random recruitment of the Opportunistic species from the surrounding forested habitats could contribute to explain inter-annual changes. The data collected over these 10 years led to the speculation of hypotheses on the consequences of climate change. The expected reduction of humid years and of rainfall regionally may lead to important changes in the species composition of the vegetation of the temporary pools in Morocco. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study which investigates the temporal trends and spatial distribution of precipitation, air temperature, evapotranspiration and runoff in the Yiluo River basin in China. It notes the use of Mann-Kendall, Yamamoto and linear fitted models in exploring the climatic variability. It discusses the implication of the findings on the temporal trends of the variables, the downward trend of annual runoff and the vegetation changes.

A dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) is coupled to an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to investigate the influence of vegetation dynamics on climate change under conditions of global warming. The model results are largely in agreement with observations and the results of previous studies in terms of the present climate, present potential vegetation, present net primary productivity (NPP), and pre-industrial carbon budgets. The equilibrium state of climate properties are compared among pre-industrial, doubled, and quadrupled atmospheric CO2 values using DGVM–AGCM and current AGCM with fixed vegetation to evaluate the influence of dynamic vegetation change. We also separated the contributions of temperature, precipitation and CO2 fertilization on vegetation change. The results reveal an amplification of global warming climate sensitivity by 10% due to the inclusion of dynamic vegetation. The total effects of elevated CO2 and climate change also lead to an increase in NPP and vegetation coverage globally. The reduction of albedo associated with this greening results in enhanced global warming. Our separation analysis indicates that temperature alters vegetation at high latitudes such as Siberia or Alaska, where there is a switch from tundra to forest. On the other hand, CO2 fertilization provides the largest contribution to greening in arid/semi-arid region. Precipitation change did not cause any drastic vegetation shift. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since inter-annual climatic variability influences composition and structure of seed bank and extant vegetation, it is expected that it also affects the relationship between both compartments at small scales along time. We hypothesize that seed bank and aboveground vegetation are closely and sequentially linked at small spatial and time scales. We conducted a field spatially explicit investigation to explore the spatial and temporal relationship between both compartments. Abundance, composition and spatial structure at different small-scales of seed bank and aboveground vegetation were analysed through 100 permanent plots during two consecutive (dry and wet) periods of growth. Following a conceptual transition path model, we analysed changes in correlation values in composition and spatial aggregation between both compartments along time including seasonal variations of seed bank. Shape of spatial structures were evaluated using partial Mantel correlograms. Annuals and perennials guilds were studied separately. During the wet year, annuals increased their aerial spatial aggregation and cover, whereas the opposite happened for perennials. Density and spatial aggregation of the seed bank increased for both guilds in the two seasons following the rain period, especially in annuals. The clumped structure of the transient seed bank is a consequence of the addition of spatial structure of extant vegetation and the persistent seed bank. Expression of the persistent seed bank is much lower during the dry period for the annual guild. In spite of the strong yearly variability, the community maintained a highly structured spatiotemporal pattern. The mechanisms promoting this stability differed for annual and perennial guilds. Temporal persistence in perennials relied mainly in established plants longevity, whereas annual guild persistence depended solely on seed bank. This tight structure was coherent with the existence of successional dynamics in the community, although persistent seed bank could moderate the pace. Longer term studies of seed bank–standing vegetation dynamics are required to fully understand this process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Questions: What are the long-term effects of climate change on the plant species composition and carbon sequestration in peat bogs? Methods: We developed a bog ecosystem model that includes vegetation, carbon, nitrogen and water dynamics. Two groups of vascular plant species and three groups of Sphagnum species compete with each other for light and nitrogen. The model was tested by comparing the outcome with long-term historic vegetation changes in peat cores from Denmark and England. A climate scenario was used to analyse the future effects of atmospheric CO2, temperature and precipitation. Results: The main changes in the species composition since 1766 were simulated by the model. Simulations for a future warmer, and slightly wetter, climate with doubling CO2 concentration suggest that little will change in species composition, due to the contrasting effects of increasing temperatures (favouring vascular plants) and CO2 (favouring Sphagnum). Further analysis of the effects of temperature showed that simulated carbon sequestration is negatively related to vascular plant expansion. Model results show that increasing temperatures may still increase carbon accumulation at cool, low N deposition sites, but decrease carbon accumulation at high N deposition sites. Conclusions: Our results show that the effects of temperature, precipitation, N-deposition and atmospheric CO2 are not straightforward, but interactions between these components of global change exist. These interactions are the result of changes in vegetation composition. When analysing long-term effects of global change, vegetation changes should be taken into account and predictions should not be based on temperature increase alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Questions: Is plant diversity in mesic grassland ecosystems vulnerable in the short-term to extreme climate change events? How rapidly can responses in vegetation composition occur in perennial grasslands?Are the expected compositional changes related to rare species losses or to shifts in the relative abundance of the dominants? Location: Subalpine mesic grasslands on limestone in the Pyrenees. Methods: Transplanting turves from the upland, with cold- temperate climate, to a lowland location, with continental Mediterranean climate. Results: Transplanting led to decreased biodiversity and strong shifts in vegetation composition. Results from both permutation tests and traditional multivariate analysis suggested different trajectories of vegetation depending on the initial species pool. Vegetation showed a tendency to converge in composition in the lowland over time, independently of initial differences. Estimated changes in relative biomass of the five most abundant species between the upland and the lowland ranged from -89 to +96 %. The ensemble of all other species was reduced by 80%. The most dominant species in the upland, Festuca nigrescens, reduced its abundance in the lowland, shifting from having mainly positive to mainly negative associations with other species. Conclusions: Mesic grassland ecosystems in the Pyrenees showed strong shifts in plant diversity and composition after a short period of warming and drought, as a consequence of acute vulnerability of some dominant grasses, losses of rare species, and aggregate and trigger effects of originally uncommon forb species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been hypothesized that a positive feedback between vegetation cover and monsoon circulation may lead to the existence of two alternative stable states in the Sahara region: a vegetated state with moderate precipitation and a desert state with low precipitation. This could explain the sudden onset of desertification in the region about 5000 years ago. However, other models suggest that the effect of vegetation on the precipitation may be insufficient to produce this behavior. Here, we show that inclusion of the microscale feedback between soil and vegetation in the model greatly amplifies the nonlinearity, causing alternative stable states and considerable hysteresis even if the effect of vegetation on precipitation is moderate. On the other hand, our analysis suggests that self-organized vegetation patterns known from models that only focus at the microscale plant–soil feedback will be limited to a narrower range of conditions due to the regional scale climate-feedback. This implies that in monsoon areas such as the Western Sahara self-organized vegetation patterns are predicted to be less common than in areas without monsoon circulation such as Central Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) is used to project transient impacts of changes in climate on vegetation of the Barents Region. We incorporate additional plant functional types, i.e. shrubs and defined different types of open ground vegetation, to improve the representation of arctic vegetation in the global model. We use future climate projections as well as control climate data for 1981-2000 from a regional climate model (REMO) that assumes a development of atmospheric CO2-concentration according to the B2-SRES scenario [IPCC, Climate Change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution working group I to the Third assessment report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2001)]. The model showed a generally good fit with observed data, both qualitatively when model outputs were compared to vegetation maps and quantitatively when compared with observations of biomass, NPP and LAI. The main discrepancy between the model output and observed vegetation is the overestimation of forest abundance for the northern parts of the Kola Peninsula that cannot be explained by climatic factors alone. Over the next hundred years, the model predicted an increase in boreal needle leaved evergreen forest, as extensions northwards and upwards in mountain areas, and as an increase in biomass, NPP and LAI. The model also projected that shadeintolerant broadleaved summergreen trees will be found further north and higher up in the mountain areas. Surprisingly, shrublands will decrease in extent as they are replaced by forest at their southern margins and restricted to areas high up in the mountains and to areas in northern Russia. Open ground vegetation will largely disappear in the Scandinavian mountains. Also counter-intuitively, tundra will increase in abundance due to the occupation of previously unvegetated areas in the northern part of the Barents Region. Spring greening will occur earlier and LAI will increase. Consequently, albedo will decrease both in summer and winter time, particularly in the Scandinavian mountains (by up to 18%). Although this positive feedback to climate could be offset to some extent by increased CO2 drawdown from vegetation, increasing soil respiration results in NEE close to zero, so we cannot conclude to what extent or whether the Barents Region will become a source or a sink of CO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. We investigated the potential drivers of Holocene vegetation changes recorded at four Scandinavian pollen sites, two in Sweden and two in Finland, at a time when they were largely free of anthropogenic influence. 2. We used the generalized dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS forced with climate anomaly output from an atmospheric general circulation model to simulate tree species dynamics from 10 000 years ago to the present. The model results were compared to high-resolution pollen accumulation rates gathered at the sites. 3. Our results indicate that both the observed northern distributional limits of temperate trees, and the limits of Pinus sylvestris and Alnus incana at the tree line, are a result of millennial variations in summer and winter temperatures. The simulation of several distinct trends in species occurrence observed in the pollen record indicates that a time lag due to the slow spreading of species need not be invoked for most species. 4. Sensitivity studies indicate that competition, natural disturbance and the magnitude of interannual variability play key roles in determining the biomass, establishment and even the presence of species near their bioclimatic limits. However, neither disturbance due to fire nor limits on establishment due to drought were likely to have been major determinants of the observed trends on the timescales considered. 5. We were unable to limit the modelled occurrence of Picea abies at the study sites to the periods at which it was observed in the pollen records, indicating that we have still not completely understood the driving or limiting factors for Holocene changes in Picea abies abundance. 6. Synthesis. This study shows that by combining quantitative vegetation reconstructions with a modern, process-based dynamic vegetation model, we may gain new insights into the potential biotic and abiotic drivers of Holocene vegetation dynamics, and their relative importance. This knowledge will be crucial in enabling us to assess more confidently the response of northern European vegetation to future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The two main goals of this study are: (i) to examine the range shifts of a currently northwards expanding species, the map butterfly (Araschnia levana), in relation to annual variation in weather, and (ii) to test the capability of a bioclimatic envelope model, based on broad-scale European distribution data, to predict recent distributional changes (2000-2004) of the species in Finland. A significant relationship between annual maximum dispersal distance of the species and late summer temperature was detected. This suggests that the map butterfly has dispersed more actively in warmer rather than cooler summers, the most notable dispersal events being promoted by periods of exceptionally warm weather and southerly winds. The accuracy of the broad-scale bioclimatic model built for the species with European data using Generalized Additive Models (GAM) was good based on split-sample evaluation for a single period. However, the model's performance was poor when applied to predict range shifts in Finland. Among the many potential explanations for the poor success of the transferred bioclimatic model, is the fact that bioclimatic envelope models do not generally account for species dispersal. This and other uncertainties support the view that bioclimatic models should be applied with caution when they are used to project future range shifts of species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between climate change and vegetation dynamics in the southwestern karst region of China has been identified by recent studies. Based on previous researches and AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) GIMMS (Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling Studies) NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) (1982–2003) and AVHRR GloPEM (Global Production Efficiency Model) NPP (Net Primary Production) (1981–2000) datasets, vegetation dynamics impacted by climate change in the southwestern karst region of China were assessed. The results show that: (1) since the early 1980s, both vegetation cover density and net primary production have insignificant ascending tendencies. However, the inter-annual variation rates of vegetation indexes have apparent spatial differentiations; (2) the correlation coefficients between the inter-annual variations of vegetation indexes and the inter-annual variations of climate factors vary geographically; (3) as indicated by NDVI and NPP, various vegetation types have different responses to climate change, and the annual mean temperature variation has more significant impact on vegetation dynamics than the annual precipitation variation in the study area; (4) distribution laws of correlation coefficients between the inter-annual variations of vegetation indexes and the inter-annual variations of climate factors in different climate conditions are apparent. All these findings will enrich our knowledge of the natural forces which impact the stability of the karst ecosystems and provide scientific basis for the management of the karst ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying climate-induced changes in vegetation patterns is essential to understanding land–climate interactions and ecosystem changes. In the present study, we estimated various distributional changes of vegetation under different climate-change scenarios in the 21st century. Both hypothetical scenarios and Hedley RCM scenarios show that the transitional vegetation types, such as shrubland and grassland, have higher sensitivity to climatic change compared to vegetation under extreme climatic conditions, such as the evergreen broadleaf forest or desert, barren lands. Mainly, the sensitive areas in China lie in the Tibetan Plateau, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, northeastern plain of China and eco-zones between different vegetations. As the temperature increases, mixed forests and deciduous broadleaf forests will shift towards northern China. Grassland, shrubland and wooded grassland will extend to southeastern China. The RCM-project climate changes generally have caused positive vegetation changes; vegetation cover will probably improve 19% relative to baseline, and the forest will expand to 8% relative to baseline, while the desert and bare ground will reduce by about 13%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Terrestrial ecosystems originate when particular plant species attain dominance at specific locations under specific environmental regimes. Ecosystems terminate, gradually or abruptly, when the dominant species or functional types are replaced by others, usually owing to environmental change or severe and irreversible disturbance. Assessing whether current ecosystems are sustainable in the face of future environmental change can be aided by examining the range of environmental variation those ecosystems have experienced in the past, and by determining the environmental conditions under which those ecosystems arose. The range of environmental variation depends on the time scale at which it is assessed. A narrow time span (e.g. 200–300 years) may underestimate the range of variation within which an ecosystem is sustainable, and it may also underestimate the risk of major transformation or disruption of that ecosystem by environmental change. Longer time spans (e.g. 1000–2000 years) increase the range of variation, by encompassing a larger sample of natural variability as well as non-stationary variability in the earth system. Most modem ecosystems disappear when the time span is expanded to 10,000–15,000 years owing to secular changes in earth's climate system. Paleo-ecological records can pinpoint the time of origination of specific ecosystems, and paleo-environmental records can reveal the specific environmental changes that led to development of those ecosystems and the range of environmental variation under which those ecosystems have maintained themselves in the past. This information can help identify critical environmental thresholds beyond which specific modem ecosystems can no longer be sustained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Systematic evaluation of food security throughout the Sahel has been attempted for nearly two decades. Food security analyses have used both food prices to determine the ability of the population to access food, and satellite-derived vegetation indices that measure vegetation production to establish how much food is available each year. The relationship between these two food security indicators is explored here using correspondence analysis and through the use of Markov chain models. Two sources of quantitative data were used: 8 km normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRR) carried on the NOAA series of satellites, and monthly millet prices from 445 markets in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. The results show that the growing season vegetation production is related to the price of millet at the annual and the seasonal time scales. If the growing season was characterized by erratic, sparse rainfall, it resulted in higher prices, and well-distributed, abundant rainfall resulted in lower prices. The correspondence between vegetation production and millet prices is used to produce maps of millet prices for West Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]