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The paper studies the ice cover of the Trooz Glacier, Kyiv Peninsula, West Antarctic Peninsula. The main goal of the work is to study the velocity dynamics of various parts of the Trooz Glacier in 2016-2022 based on remote sensing data and to compare them with changes in meteorological variables. The glacier's velocity was determined using 7-year data from the Copernicus Sentinel-1 satellite system based on the offset tracking technique. The characteristics of climatic changes during the same time intervals were determined according to the POWER project from NASA. To analyze the velocity field of the Trooz Glacier over time, 100 control points were selected along the entire valley from the mouth to the upland of the tributaries. For these points, values of the glacier velocity were calculated every 12 days for seven years, from 23.11.2015 to 28.12.2022. The entire glacier valley was divided into subclusters with their own average surface velocities and accelerations. To determine the level of climate change's influence on the velocities of different parts of the Trooz Glacier, we used the method of cross-correlation. The ice flow reacted to climatic changes with a certain delay. Annual velocity fluctuations of various parts and a slight glacier movement acceleration from 2015 to 2022 were identified. The latter amounted to 7-9% of the 2016-year speed. At the same time, only in the terminus area during the studied period was there a slight slowdown in the average annual velocity detected from 2.25 m day-1 in 2016 to 2.1 m day-1 in 2022. The most intensive climatic parameters affect the middle and lower parts of the Trooz Glacier. Among the main parameters, the near-surface environment temperature can be seen as the most influential force. Temperature changes impact the glacier velocity within the first 12 to 36 days; the effect can appear later with lag intervals of up to 120 days. The role of environmental temperature is significant for the middle part of the glacier, where its valley becomes wide. For the lower part and terminus region of the glacier, the temperature effect is most significant, with the reaction of the ice flow to temperature changes occurring in the coming days. Shortwave solar radiation and ultraviolet index were also established as influencers, but only for the lower and middle glacier parts, with a lag from 12 to 48 days. The influence of the precipitation amount was the most detectable only in the lower part of the glacier. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This dataset relates to the biodiversity census carried out during the Belgica 121 (B121) expedition to the Western Antarctic Peninsula from February to March 2019. One of the aims of the campaign was to explore the surroundings of the Gerlache Strait and to carry out a detailed biodiversity census focusing on inter- and subtidal shallow-water areas using both classic descriptive marine ecology methods, as well as state-of-the art techniques (habitat mapping, genetics, trophic ecology). The biodiversity census was carried out onboard a nimble research vessel, RV Australis. This dataset will offer access to the raw data on biodiversity occurrences, obtained using a range of methods described in this data paper. New information: New raw biodiversity data for a poorly-sampled region (Western Antarctic Peninsula) with a special focus on shallow ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The upward evolution of temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula has weakened and even reversed in the last two decades. Due to the long-term variability in the region it is not easy to assess whether recent cooling trends are consistent with the internal variability or not. For this reason, this paper assesses the robustness of the trends by analysing their sensitivity with respect to the period selected. Every possible temperature trend in the interval 1958–2016 has been calculated and displayed in a two-dimensional parameter diagram. The results suggest that the warming observed in the Antarctic Peninsula since 1958 is quite robust, as all periods longer than 30 years exhibit statistically significant changes, especially in summer (with lower magnitude and higher significance) and autumn and winter (with larger magnitude and lower significance). Periods shorter than 30 years exhibit alternations of warming and cooling periods, and therefore do not represent robust trends even if they are statistically significant. Consequently, the recent 20-year cooling trend cannot be considered at the moment as evidence of a shift in the overall sign of the trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the relationship between surface air temperature and glacial discharge has been studied in the Northern Hemisphere for at least a century, similar studies for Antarctica remain scarce and only for the past four decades. This data scarcity is due to the extreme meteorological conditions and terrain inaccessibility. As a result, the contribution of glacial discharge in Antarctica to global sea-level rise is still attached with great uncertainties, especially from partly glaciated hydrological basins as can be found in the Antarctic Peninsula. In this paper, we propose a simplified model based on the Monte Carlo method and Fourier analysis for estimating discharge in partly glaciated and periglacial hydrological catchments with a summer melt period. Our model offers the advantage of scarce data requirements and quick recognition of periglacial environments. Discharge was found to be highly correlated with surface air temperature for the partially glaciated hydrological catchments on Potter Peninsula, King George Island (Isla 25 Mayo). The model is simple to implement and requires few variables to make most versatile simulations. We have obtained a monthly simulated maximum flow estimates between 0.74 and 1.07m³ s-1 for two creeks (South and North Potter) with a very good fit to field observations. The glacial mean monthly discharge during summer months was estimated to 0.44 ± 0.02m³ s-1 for South Potter Creek and 0.55 ± 0.02m³³ s-1 for North Potter Creek. This article is part of the theme issue 'The marine system of the West Antarctic Peninsula: status and strategy for progress in a region of rapid change'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The western Antarctica Peninsula and Scotia Sea ecosystems appear to be driven by complex links between climatic variables, primary productivity, krill and Avian predators. There are several studies reporting statistical relationships between climate, krill and Penguin population size. The Adélie ( Pygoscelis adeliae), Chinstrap ( P. antarctica) and Gentoo ( P. papua) penguins appear to be influenced by interannual variability in sea-ice extent and krill biomass. In this paper we developed simple conceptual models to decipher the role of climate and krill fluctuations on the population dynamics of these three Pygoscelis penguin species inhabiting the Antarctic Peninsula region. Our results suggest that the relevant processes underlying the population dynamics of these penguin species at King George Island (South Shetland Islands) are intra-specific competition and the combined effects of krill abundance and sea-ice cover. Our results using population theoretical models appear to support that climate change, specifically regional warming on the western Antarctic Peninsula, represents a major driver. At our study site, penguins showed species-specific responses to climate change. While Chinstrap penguins were only influenced by krill abundance, the contrasting population trends of Adélie and Gentoo penguins appear to be better explained by the 'sea-ice hypothesis'. We think that proper population dynamic modeling and theory are essential for deciphering and proposing the ecological mechanisms underlying dynamics of these penguin populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drastic changes were detected in glacial systems of the Antarctic Peninsula in the last decades. The observed phenomena comprise the disintegration of ice shelves, acceleration and thinning of glaciers, and retreat of glacier fronts. However, due to the lack of consistent systematic observations in particular of the higher parts of the glacial systems, it is difficult to predict further responses of the Antarctic Peninsula glaciers to climatic change. The present paper analyses spatial and temporal variations of changes in the dry-snow line altitude on the Antarctic Peninsula as extracted from a time series (1992–2005) of ERS-1/2 SAR and Envisat ASAR data. Upward changes in dry-snow line altitude were observed in general, and are attributed to extreme high-temperature events impacting the central plateaus of the Antarctic Peninsula and the increasing duration of warming periods. A mean decrease in dry-snow line altitude was detected on the west side of the peninsula and is identified as a response to recorded increase in precipitation and accumulation. These results validate the capability of SAR data for deriving superficial parameters of glaciers to be used as indicators of climatic changes in high-latitude regions where operational restrictions limit conventional meteorological observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the fastest-warming regions on Earth, but its palaeoenvironmental history south of 63° latitude is relatively poorly documented, relying principally on the marine geological record and short ice cores. In this paper, we present evidence of late-Quaternary environmental change from the Marguerite Bay region combining data from lake sediment records on Horseshoe Island and Pourquoi-Pas Island, and raised beaches at Horseshoe Island, Pourquoi-Pas Island and Calmette Bay. Lake sediments were radiocarbon dated and analysed using a combination of sedimentological, geochemical and microfossil methods. Raised beaches were surveyed and analysed for changes in clast composition, size and roundness. Results suggest a non-erosive glacial regime could have existed on Horseshoe Island from 35,780 (38,650–33,380) or 32,910 (34,630–31,370) cal yr BP onwards. There is radiocarbon and macrofossil evidence for possible local deglaciation events at 28,830 (29,370–28,320) cal yr BP, immediately post-dating Antarctic Isotopic Maximum 4, and 21,110 (21,510–20,730 interpolated) cal yr BP coinciding with, or immediately post-dating, Antarctic Isotopic Maximum 2. The Holocene deglaciation of Horseshoe Island commenced from 10,610 (11,000–10,300) cal yr BP at the same time as the early Holocene temperature maximum recorded in Antarctic ice cores. This was followed by the onset of marine sedimentation in The Narrows, Pourquoi-Pas Island, before 8850 (8480–9260) cal yr BP. Relative sea level high stands of 40.79 m above present at Pourquoi-Pas Island and 40.55 m above present at Calmette Bay occurred sometime after 9000 cal yr BP and suggest that a thicker ice sheet, including grounded ice streams, was present in this region of the Antarctic Peninsula than that recorded at sites further north. Isolation of the Narrows Lake basin on Pourquoi-Pas Island shows relative sea level in this region had fallen rapidly to 19.41 m by 7270 (7385–7155) cal yr BP. Chaetoceros resting spores suggest high productivity and stratified surface waters in The Narrows after 8850 (9260–8480) cal yr BP and beach clasts provide evidence of a period of increased wave energy at approximately 8000 yr BP. Lake sediment and beach data suggest an extended period of regional warming sometime between 6200 and 2030 cal yr BP followed by the onset of Neoglacial conditions from 2630 and 2030 cal yr BP in Narrows Lake and Col Lake 1, respectively. Diatom and δ13C vs C/N and macrofossil evidence suggest a potential increase in the number of birds and seals visiting the Narrows Lake catchment sometime after 2100 (2250–2000) cal yr BP, with enhanced nutrient enrichment evident after 1150 (1230–1080) cal yr BP, and particularly from c. 460 (540–380) cal yr BP. A very recent increase in Gomphonema species and organic carbon in the top centimetre of the Narrows Lake sediment core after c. 410 (490–320) cal yr BP, and increased sedimentation rates in the Col Lake 1 sediment core, after c. 400 (490–310) cal yr BP may be a response to the regional late-Holocene warming of the Antarctic Peninsula. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The Antarctic Peninsula is under pressure from non-native plants and this risk is expected to increase under climate warming. Establishment and subsequent range expansion of non-native plants depend in part on germination ability under Antarctic conditions, but quantifying these processes has yet to receive detailed study. Viability testing and plant growth responses under simulated Antarctic soil surface conditions over an annual cycle show that 16 non-native species, including grasses, herbs, rushes and a succulent, germinated and continued development under a warming scenario. Thermal germination requirement (degree day sum) was calculated for each species and field soil-temperature recordings indicate that this is satisfied as far south as 72° S. Here, we show that the establishment potential of non-native species, in number and geographical range, is considerably greater than currently suggested by species distribution modelling approaches, with important implications for risk assessments of non-native species along the Antarctic Peninsula. Stef Bokhorst et al. simulate a warming scenario in Antarctic soil under laboratory conditions and report the germination and growth of sixteen non-native plant species. These experimental results, combined with calculations of thermal germination requirement at +3 °C and +5 °C warming scenarios demonstrate that the risk of establishment by non-native species in Antarctica may be greater than previously suggested by species distribution modelling approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parts of Antarctica were amongst the most rapidly changing regions of the planet during the second half of the Twentieth Century. Even so, today, most of Antarctica remains in the grip of continental ice sheets, with only about 0.2% of its overall area being ice-free. The continent's terrestrial fauna consists only of invertebrates, with just two native species of insects, the chironomid midges Parochlus steinenii and Belgica antarctica. We integrate ecophysiological information with the development of new high-resolution climatic layers for Antarctica, to better understand how the distribution of P. steinenii may respond to change over the next century under different IPCC climate change scenarios. We conclude that the species has the potential to expand its distribution to include parts of the west and east coasts of the Antarctic Peninsula and even coastal ice-free areas in parts of continental Antarctica. We propose P. steinenii as an effective native sentinel and indicator species of climate change in the Antarctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate‐induced range overlap can result in novel interactions between similar species and potentially lead to competitive exclusion. The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is one of the most rapidly warming regions on Earth and is experiencing a poleward climate migration from a polar to subpolar environment. This has resulted in a range expansion of the ice‐intolerant gentoo penguins (Pygoscelis papua) and a coincident decrease in ice‐obligate Adélie penguins (P. adeliae) near Palmer Station, Anvers Island, WAP. Ecologically similar species that share a limited prey resource must occupy disparate foraging niches in order to co‐exist. Therefore, we determined the extent of foraging and dietary niche segregation between Adélie and gentoo penguins during the austral breeding season near Palmer Station. This research was conducted across six breeding seasons, from 2009 to 2014, which allowed us to investigate niche overlap in the context of interannual resource variability. Using biotelemetry and diet sampling, we found substantial overlap in the diets of Adélie and gentoo penguins, who primarily consumed Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba); however, our results showed that Adélie and gentoo penguins partitioned this shared prey resource through horizontal segregation of their core foraging areas. We did not find evidence that Antarctic krill were a limiting resource during the breeding season or that climate‐induced sympatry of Adélie and gentoo penguins resulted in competition for prey or caused the subsequent differing population trajectories. This apparent absence of resource competition between Adélie and gentoo penguins throughout this study implies that current population trends in this region are governed by other biological and physical factors. Our results highlight the importance of understanding the mechanistic processes that influence top predator populations in the context of climate‐driven ecosystem shifts. In this study, we investigated foraging and dietary niche partitioning between two recently sympatric Pygoscelis penguin populations on the West Antarctic Peninsula. We did not find evidence that climate‐induced sympatry in this scenario resulted in competitive exclusion. The results of this study provide important and timely insight into the underlying mechanistic processes driving penguin population changes in the Southern Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Almost three decades of bottom pressure recorder (BPR) measurements at the Drake Passage, and 31 years of hourly tide gauge data from the Vernadsky Research Base on the Antarctic Peninsula, have been used to investigate the temporal and spatial variations in this region of the three main long-period tides Mf, Mm and Mt (in order of decreasing amplitude, with periods of a fortnight, a month and one-third of a month, respectively). The amplitudes of Mf and Mt, and the phase lags for all three constituents, vary over the nodal cycle (18.61 years) in essentially the same way as in the equilibrium tide, so confirming the validity of Doodson's "nodal factors" for these constituents. The amplitude of Mm is found to be essentially constant, and so inconsistent at the 3δ level from the ±13% (or ~ ±0:15 mbar) anticipated variation over the nodal cycle, which can probably be explained by energetic non-tidal variability in the records at monthly timescales and longer. The north-south differences in amplitude for all three constituents are consistent with those in a modern ocean tide model (FES2014), as are those in phase lag for Mf and Mt, while the phase difference for Mm is smaller than in the model. BPR measurements are shown to be considerably superior to coastal tide gauge data in such studies, due to the larger proportion of non-tidal variability in the latter. However, correction of the tide gauge records for non-tidal variability results in the uncertainties in nodal parameters being reduced by a factor of 2 (for Mf at least) to a magnitude comparable (approximately twice) to those obtained from the BPR data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is a bellwether of global climate change and natural laboratory for identifying interactions between climate and ecosystems. The Palmer Long‐Term Ecological Research (LTER) project has collected data on key ecological and environmental processes along the WAP since 1993. To better understand how key ecological parameters are changing across space and time, we developed a novel seascape classification approach based on in situ temperature, salinity, chlorophyll a, nitrate + nitrite, phosphate, and silicate. We anticipate that this approach will be broadly applicable to other geographical areas. Through the application of self‐organizing maps (SOMs), we identified eight recurrent seascape units (SUs) in these data. These SUs have strong fidelity to known regional water masses but with an additional layer of biogeochemical detail, allowing us to identify multiple distinct nutrient profiles in several water masses. To identify the temporal and spatial distribution of these SUs, we mapped them across the Palmer LTER sampling grid via objective mapping of the original parameters. Analysis of the abundance and distribution of SUs since 1993 suggests two year types characterized by the partitioning of chlorophyll a into SUs with different spatial characteristics. By developing generalized linear models for correlated, time‐lagged external drivers, we conclude that early spring sea ice conditions exert a strong influence on the distribution of chlorophyll a and nutrients along the WAP, but not necessarily the total chlorophyll a inventory. Because the distribution and density of phytoplankton biomass can have an impact on biomass transfer to the upper trophic levels, these results highlight anticipated links between the WAP marine ecosystem and climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southern Hemisphere humpback whales breed in tropical waters and migrate to Antarctica to forage. While the breeding grounds are well defined, the population structure on Antarctic feeding grounds is poorly described. The Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is of particular interest, where rapidly changing environmental conditions could alter prey distribution or migration pathways. To examine changes in the population of whales around the WAP, we used mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and 15 microsatellite loci. We compared our WAP dataset to a dataset collected 18 years earlier, and identified new haplotypes for the region, but found no significant difference between the datasets. We compared whales from the WAP to breeding populations in Oceania, Colombia, and Brazil. We used an Analysis of Molecular Variance to confirm significant genetic differentiation between the WAP and each breeding ground (overall FST = 0.035/0.007 mtDNA/microsatellite, p < 0.001) except Colombia. Bayesian mixed-stock analyses showed a large apportionment to Colombia (mtDNA 93.0%; CL 91–99%; microsatellites 86%; CL 72–93%) and a small apportionment to French Polynesia/Samoan Islands (mtDNA 2.9%; CL 0.0–11.5%; microsatellites 8.9%; CL 0–22%), supporting the strong connection between Colombia and the WAP. Assignment tests allocated 81 individuals to Colombia and two to French Polynesia/Samoan Islands. No other breeding grounds had significant apportionments. Direct connectivity of French Polynesia to the WAP was confirmed with the first genotype match of French Polynesia to a feeding area. Continued genetic monitoring will highlight the complex patterns of humpbacks in this rapidly changing climate. Our results serve as a baseline for humpback whale population structure, illustrate mixed-stock analysis as a useful tool for migrating wildlife, and aid in future management considerations for humpbacks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study characterizes the spatial distribution of seaweed diversity on eight islands from the South Shetlands based on an updated taxonomic survey, discussing the higher number of species compared with previous studies and the possible relationships with environmental parameters. Seaweeds were sampled in Deception, Livingston, Halfmoon, Robert, Nelson, King George, Penguin, and Elephant Islands during the austral summer between 2010 and 2013 in intertidal and shallow subtidal zones. The taxonomic analyses evaluated morphological characteristics, reproductive structures, and molecular features. Physicochemical parameters of seawater were also monitored using standard analytical methods. A total of 104 species of benthic marine algae were identified (28 Phaeophyceae, 24 Chlorophyta, and 52 Rhodophyta), ~82% of all seaweeds taxa described to Antarctica, including six new records previously recorded only at lower latitudes, four confirmed taxa, and two putative new species. Spatial variation in species diversity was observed among the collecting sites, and Livingston and King George Islands showed the highest diversity among the islands. Deception, an area with geothermal activity and intense tourism, was dominated by opportunistic and broadly distributed filamentous green algae. Antarctic macroalgae diversity was higher than in previous studies, most likely due to more efficient techniques of sampling, and combined taxonomical methods. However, changes in the biogeographical distribution or introduction of some taxa, resulting from anthropogenic activities and/or climate changes, should be considered. Therefore, the higher number of taxa and the new records reported in this study suggest the need for long-term monitoring in the area for conservation purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sponge communities on the Antarctic continental shelf currently represent one of the most extensive sponge grounds in the world, and all sponge classes are known to occur in the Southern Ocean. Main objectives of this study conducted at the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula were (1) to identify all sampled sponges and (2) to investigate whether the species composition and species richness of Southern Ocean sponge communities in the area of the Antarctic Peninsula are significantly influenced by environmental variables. The studied material originated from 25 AGT catches and was sampled during the expedition ANT-XXIX/3 of RV Polarstern. Samples were collected in three large-scale areas in the vicinity of the Antarctic Peninsula: Bransfield Strait, Drake Passage and Weddell Sea. The following six environmental variables were measured from bottom water samples (except for sea-ice cover): depth (m), light transmission (%), oxygen (µmol/kg), salinity, sea-ice cover (%) and temperature (°C). Two hundred and sixty-three sponge samples were analyzed, and 81 species of 33 genera from all Porifera classes (Calcarea, Demospongiae, Hexactinellida and Homoscleromorpha) were identified. Total numbers of sponge species per sample station ranged from 1 to 29. A detrended correspondence analysis and a backward-stepwise model selection were performed to check whether species composition and richness were significantly influenced by environmental variables. The analyses revealed that none of the measured environmental variables significantly influenced species composition but that species richness was significantly influenced by (1) temperature and (2) the combination of temperature and depth. Results of this study are of crucial importance for development, performance and assessment of future protection strategies in case of ongoing climatic changes at the Antarctic Peninsula. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Benthic ecological surveys using standardized methods are crucial for assessing changes associated with several threats in the Southern Ocean. The acquisition of data on assemblage structure over a variety of spatial scales is important to understand the variation of biodiversity patterns. During the ANT XXIX/3 (PS81) expedition of RV Polarstern, three different regions at the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula were sampled: the northwestern Weddell Sea, the Bransfield Strait, and the northern boundary of the South Shetland Archipelago in the Drake Passage. The aim of this study was to characterize the distribution and biodiversity patterns of ophiuroid assemblages in these regions and depths. We quantified different community parameters in terms of the number of species, abundance, and biomass. Additionally, we calculated various components of species diversity (alpha, beta, and gamma diversity) over the three regions. Based on the benthic surveys, we collected 3331 individuals that were identified to species level (17 species). Overall, species diversity, as measured based on rarefaction, species richness and evenness estimators, was higher in the Bransfield Strait compared to the Weddell Sea and Drake Passage. Two deep stations in the Weddell Sea showed high dominance only of Ophionotus victoriae. Significant differences in the patterns of alpha diversity were found among the regions but not between depth zones, whereas beta diversity showed no differences. Regarding the resemblance among the ophiuroid assemblages of each region, there was a significant gradient from east to west with a maximum distance between the stations in the Drake Passage and the Weddell Sea. This study provides a baseline for detecting potential effects related to climate change, and it furnishes a basis for the implementation of monitoring schemes of Antarctic assemblages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the areas where the climate is changing at the fastest pace, having several effects on the populations of pygoscelid penguins. Few studies have analysed the variation in immune parameters of antarctic birds in a geographical context; thus, analyses of geographical differences in the immune components of wild pygoscelid penguins are still scarce. Leukocyte counts in birds provide information on their immunity and physiological stress. The objective of this study was to analyse the leukocyte counts in penguins of the genus Pygoscelis (gentoo, Adélie and chinstrap penguins), covering sites along the South Shetland Islands and some islands on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. Our results revealed differences in the number of heterophils and eosinophils and in the heterophil/lymphocyte ratio in the northeastern populations of gentoo and Adélie penguins as compared to the rest of the colonies studied. The results contribute to better understanding of the variations in physiological parameters of penguins related to a geographical context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At a global scale, there is no evidence for synchronous multi-decadal warm (‘Medieval Warm Period’, MWP) or cold (‘Little Ice Age’, LIA) periods in the late Holocene. On the other hand, there is good correspondence globally in the timing of MWP or LIA and phases of glacier retreat and advance, respectively, with local exceptions mainly explained by the precipitation regime. Antarctica exhibits contrasting patterns, both regarding the existence of these two historical climatic periods and the glacial responses to climatic forcing. Here, we present evidence for glacial retreat corresponding to the MWP and a subsequent LIA advance at Rothera Point (67°34′S; 68°07′W) in Marguerite Bay, western Antarctic Peninsula. Deglaciation started at ca. 961–800 cal. yr BP or before, reaching a position similar to or even more withdrawn than the current state, with the subsequent period of glacial advance commencing between 671 and 558 cal. yr BP and continuing at least until 490–317 cal. yr BP. Based on new radiocarbon dates, during the MWP, the rate of glacier retreat was 1.6 m yr−1, which is comparable with recently observed rates (~0.6 m yr−1 between 1993 and 2011 and 1.4 m yr−1 between 2005 and 2011). Moreover, despite the recent air warming rate being higher, the glacial retreat rate during the MWP was similar to the present, suggesting that increased snow accumulation in recent decades may have counterbalanced the higher warming rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intense regional warming was observed in the western Antarctic Peninsula ( WAP) over the last 50 years. Here, we investigate the impact of climate change on primary production ( PP) in this highly productive region. This study is based on temporal data series of ozone thickness (1972-2010), sea ice concentration (1978-2010), sea-surface temperature (1990-2010), incident irradiance (1988-2010) and satellite-derived chlorophyll a concentration (Chl-a, 1997-2010) for the coastal WAP. In addition, we apply a photosynthesis/photoinhibition spectral model to satellite-derived data (1997-2010) to compute PP and examine the separate impacts of environmental forcings. Since 1978, sea ice retreat has been occurring earlier in the season (in March in 1978 and in late October during the 2000s) while the ozone hole is present in early spring (i.e. August to November) since the early 1990s, increasing the intensity of ultraviolet-B radiation ( UVBR, 280-320 nm). The WAP waters have also warmed over 1990-2010. The modelled PP rates are in the lower range of previously reported PP rates in the WAP. The annual open water PP in the study area increased from 1997 to 2010 (from 0.73 to 1.03 Tg C yr−1) concomitantly with the increase in the production season length. The coincidence between the earlier sea ice retreat and the presence of the ozone hole increased the exposure to incoming radiation ( UVBR, UVAR and PAR) and, thus, increased photoinhibition during austral spring (September to November) in the study area (from 0.014 to 0.025 Tg C yr−1). This increase in photoinhibition was minor compared to the overall increase in PP, however. Climate change hence had an overall positive impact on PP in the WAP waters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sinking of dense water from Antarctic coastal polynyas produces Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), which is the densest water in the global overturning circulation and is a key player in climate change as a significant sink for heat and carbon dioxide. Very recent studies have suggested that landfast sea ice (fast ice) plays an important role in the formation and variability of the polynyas and possibly AABW. However, they have been limited to regional and case investigations only. This study provides the first coincident circumpolar mapping of Antarctic coastal polynyas and fast ice. The map reveals that most of the polynyas are formed on the western side of fast ice, indicating an important role of fast ice in the polynya formation. Winds diverging from a boundary comprising both coastline and fast ice are the primary determinant of polynya formation. The blocking effect of fast ice on westward sea ice advection by the coastal current would be another key factor. These effects on the variability in sea ice production for 13 major polynyas are evaluated quantitatively. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that a drastic change in fast ice extent, which is particularly vulnerable to climate change, causes dramatic changes in the polynyas and possibly AABW formation that can potentially contribute to further climate change. These results suggest that fast ice and precise polynya processes should be addressed by next-generation models to produce more accurate climate projections. This study provides the boundary and validation data of fast ice and sea ice production for such models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of climate change along the climatically sensitive Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) on active layer dynamics have just begun to be monitored. But extreme climates and difficult access make borehole installation here challenging. This study was designed to examine the ability of two commonly used, minimally intrusive techniques (the Stefan and Kudryavtsev equations) to predict active layer temperature dynamics and maximum active layer thickness (ALT) on Amsler Island, on the WAP. The ALT in soils and unconsolidated materials was predicted to be between 4.7 and 8.7 m, and between 11.9 and 18.6 m in bedrock, consistent with measurements made in a 14.6 m deep borehole. The thermal model HYDRUS accurately predicted temperature dynamics at several monitored borehole depths. The success of the HYDRUS method indicates that the model can be a useful tool in predicting active layer temperatures and approximating ALTs in regions that are too difficult to install monitoring boreholes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapidly rising sea temperatures off the western Antarctic Peninsula ( WAP) are placing the Antarctic benthos at risk of increasing predation from durophagous (shell-breaking) brachyuran and anomuran crabs. Crabs are at present excluded from Antarctic-shelf environments by their limited capacity to down-regulate magnesium ions in their blood, a constraint that paralyses and kills them under cold conditions. Interspecific variation in the ability of Subantarctic crabs to flush out magnesium ions predicts which species should be capable of extending their ranges to shelf environments along the Antarctic Peninsula. In agreement with those predictions, the brachyuran Halicarcinus planatus was recently found in the shallow subtidal zone at Deception Island, an emergent volcanic cone located off the WAP. Geothermal activity at Deception Island provides a warm-water opportunity for persistence in a cold ocean, and heavy ship-traffic there could accelerate the delivery of non-native species. Large populations of anomuran king crabs (Lithodidae) have recently been discovered on the continental slope off the WAP, at ambient sea temperatures slightly warmer than the waters over the shelf. The lithodids are generalized, durophagous predators that could expand to shelf habitats as the overlying waters warm rapidly. Another brachyuran, the globally invasive, durophagous European green crab Carcinus maenas, also appears poised to expand to nearshore habitats in Antarctica. Successful expansion of predators and other benthic species to the Antarctic shelf would accelerate the global trend towards functional homogenization of the marine biota. Long-term monitoring programmes should be established immediately to assess the extent of the problem in Antarctica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sixty-seven species of diatoms of 28 genera were identified in Core GC03-C2 acquired from the north slope of Elephant Island, Antarctic Peninsula. The number of diatom valves per gram of dry sediment ranged from 0.2∼17.3×10g, and these were dominated by Fragilariopsis kerguelensis (65.8%). Diatom assemblage analysis reconstructed the Quaternary paleoclimatic change the Elephant Islands. Four diatom assemblage zones were identified according to the frequency of critical taxa as follows: zone I, from 830 to 710 cm (Antarctic Cold Reversal); zone II, from 700 to 550 cm (Deglaciation zone); zone III, from 540 to 260 cm (warm period; Holocene); and zone IV, from 250 to 0 cm (cool period; Holocene). The high abundance of reworked species includes Actinocyclus ingens, Denticulopsis hustedtii, D. praedimorpha, and D. dimorpha appeared in Zone I by turbidity currents and ice rafting in the area during the glaciations-deglaciation event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, Antarctica has experienced pronounced climate changes. The Antarctic Peninsula exhibited the strongest warming of any region on the planet, causing rapid changes in land ice. Additionally, in contrast to the sea-ice decline over the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice has not declined, but has instead undergone a perplexing redistribution. Antarctic climate is influenced by, among other factors, changes in radiative forcing and remote Pacific climate variability, but none explains the observed Antarctic Peninsula warming or the sea-ice redistribution in austral winter. However, in the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (a leading mode of sea surface temperature variability) has been overlooked in this context. Here we show that sea surface warming related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation reduces the surface pressure in the Amundsen Sea and contributes to the observed dipole-like sea-ice redistribution between the Ross and Amundsen-Bellingshausen-Weddell seas and to the Antarctic Peninsula warming. Support for these findings comes from analysis of observational and reanalysis data, and independently from both comprehensive and idealized atmospheric model simulations. We suggest that the north and tropical Atlantic is important for projections of future climate change in Antarctica, and has the potential to affect the global thermohaline circulation and sea-level change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A one-dimensional, temperature-dependent model was used to simulate the descent–ascent cycle of the embryos and early larval stages of Antarctic krill to determine which regions of the western Antarctic Peninsula (wAP) continental shelf support successful completion of this cycle under present environmental conditions and those projected to occur as a result of climate change. The transport and fate of the embryo and larva under present and modified conditions was investigated with Lagrangian particle tracking simulations. The two modeling studies were implemented using temperature and density (embryo–larva model) and circulation distributions (Lagrangian particle tracking) obtained from a high resolution version of the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the wAP shelf region. Additional simulations used temperature and circulation distributions obtained from simulations that were forced with increased wind speed and increased transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), both projected to possibly occur with climate change in the wAP region. Simulations using present conditions showed that successful completion of the descent–ascent cycle occurred along the outer shelf and on the shelf in regions with bottom depths of 600–700m. Estimated residence times for the shelf regions that support success of the embryo and larva were 20–30 days. Thus, krill spawned in the mid and inner shelf regions can be retained in these regions through development to the first feeding stage (calyptopis 1). Increased winds and ACC transport resulted in more onshelf transport of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW), which increased the volume of warm (1–1.5°C) water at depth. These conditions supported a moderate increase in success of the krill embryo and larva, but only for limited areas of the shelf where hatching depths decreased by 10–30m (<5%) and development time to the calyptopis 1 stage decreased by 15–20%. The modified circulation conditions also supported increased advection of krill larvae into areas of the shelf that would experience the largest reduction of sea ice, especially in winter. Projected changes in wind strength and CDW transport may potentially enhance larval survival and advection onto the wAP shelf, but recruitment may be decreased by modifications to local sea ice distributions that would impede survival of Antarctic krill that overwinter on the shelf. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The West Antarctic ice sheet is particularly sensitive to global warming and its evolution and impact on global climate over the next few decades remains difficult to predict. In this context, investigating past sea ice conditions around Antarctica is of primary importance. Here, we document changes in sea ice presence, upper water column temperatures (0-200 m) and primary productivity over the last 9000 yr BP (before present) in the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) margin from a sedimentary core collected in the Palmer Deep Basin. Employing a multi-proxy approach, based on the combination of two biomarkers proxies (highly branched isoprenoid (HBI) alkenes for sea ice and TEX86L for temperature) and micropaleontological data (diatom assemblages), we derived new Holocene records of sea ice conditions and upper water column temperatures. The early Holocene (9000-7000 yr BP) was characterized by a cooling phase with a short sea ice season. During the mid-Holocene (~7000-3800 yr BP), local climate evolved towards slightly colder conditions and a prominent extension of the sea ice season occurred, promoting a favorable environment for intensive diatom growth. The late Holocene (the last ~2100 yr) was characterized by warmer temperatures and increased sea ice presence, accompanied by reduced local primary productivity, likely in response to a shorter growing season compared to the early or mid-Holocene. The gradual increase in annual sea ice duration over the last 7000 yr might have been influenced by decreasing mean annual and spring insolation, despite increasing summer insolation. We postulate that, in addition to precessional changes in insolation, seasonal variability, via changes in the strength of the circumpolar Westerlies and upwelling activity, was further amplified by the increasing frequency/amplitude of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, between 3800 and 2100 yr BP, the lack of correlation between ENSO and climate variability in the WAP suggests that other climatic factors might have been more important in controlling WAP climate at this time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, new observations of ice-sheet mass balance and improved computer simulations of ice-sheet response to continuing climate change have been published. Whereas Greenland is losing ice mass at an increasing pace, current Antarctic ice loss is likely to be less than some recently published estimates. It remains unclear whether East Antarctica has been gaining or losing ice mass over the past 20 years, and uncertainties in ice-mass change for West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula remain large. We discuss the past six years of progress and examine the key problems that remain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study was to contribute to a general understanding of the response of the Antarctic macrobenthos to environmental variability and climate-induced changes. The change in population size of selected macrobenthic organisms was investigated in the Larsen A area east of the Antarctic Peninsula in 2007 and 2011 using ROV-based imaging methods. The results were complemented by data from the Larsen B collected in 2007 to allow a conceptual reconstruction of the environment-driven changes before the period of investigation. Both Larsen areas are characterised by ice-shelf disintegration in 1995 and 2002, respectively, as well as high inter-annual variability in sea-ice cover and oceanographic conditions. In 2007 one ascidian species, Molgula pedunculata, was abundant north and south of the stripe of remaining ice shelf between Larsen A and B. Population densities decreased drastically in the Larsen A between 2007 and 2011, coincident with the decrease in Corella eumyota, another ascidian. Among the ophiuroids, the population of deposit feeders increased, while suspension feeders halved their abundance. Current measurements indicated a northward flow between the Larsen B and Larsen A, suggesting that a major physical forcing on benthic population development comes from the South. The results demonstrate that Antarctic macrobenthic populations can exhibit dramatic population dynamics. Analyses of sea-ice dynamics, salinity, temperature and surprisingly ice-shelf disintegration history, however, did not provide any clear evidence for environmental drivers underlying the apparent changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic continent contains the majority of the global ice volume and plays an important role in a changing climate. The nature and causes of Antarctic climate variability are, however, poorly understood beyond interannual time scales due to the paucity of long, reliable meteorological observations. This study analyzes decadal-interdecadal climate variability over Antarctica using a network of annually resolved ice core records and various instrumental and tropical proxy data for the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. During the twentieth century, Antarctic ice core records indicate strong linkages to sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic on decadal-interdecadal time scales. Antarctic surface temperature anomalies inferred from the ice cores are consistent with the associated changes in atmospheric circulation and thermal advection. A set of atmospheric general circulation model experiments supports the idea that decadal SST variations in the tropics force atmospheric teleconnections that affect Antarctic surface temperatures. When coral and other proxies for tropical climate are used to extend the analysis back to 1799, a similar Antarctic-tropical Pacific linkage is found, although the relationship is weaker during the first half of the nineteenth century. Over the past 50 years, a change in the phase of Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal variability may have contributed to the rapid warming of the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica and related changes in ice sheet dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the response of variable glaciers to atmospheric warming in northern Antarctic Peninsula from 1988-2009. It states that the precipitation-starved glaciers were affected by warming temperature and the reduce shrinkage on the western Peninsula might be a result of higher snowfall. It mentions that the slow rate of area loss was attributed to the floating ice tongues withdrawing into the fjords.

Significant strides in our understanding of the marine pelagic ecosystem of the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) region have been made over the past two decades, resulting from research conducted aboard ARSV Laurence M. Gould and RVIB Nathaniel B. Palmer. These advances range from an understanding of the physical forcing on biology, to food web ecology (from microbes to top predators), to biogeochemical cycling, often in the larger context of rapid climate warming in the region. The proximity of the WAP to the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and WAP continental shelf bathymetry affects the hydrography and helps structure the biological community. Seasonal, spatial, and interannual variability at all levels of the food web, as well as the mechanisms supporting their production, are now more clearly understood. New tools and technologies employed in the region were critical for making this research possible. As a result, our knowledge of the WAP pelagic ecosystem during a time of rapid climate change has vastly improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is a region of rapid climate change that is altering plankton community structure. To investigate how these changes may impact carbon and energy transfer in the pelagic food web, grazing rates of the five dominant macrozooplankton species (euphausiids Euphausia superba, Euphausia crystallorophias, and Thysanöessa macrura; the pteropod Limacina helicina, and the salp Salpa thompsoni) in the WAP were measured in January 2009 and 2010 as part of the Palmer Antarctica Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) study. Measurements were made across the coastal-shelf-offshore and north–south gradients of the LTER survey grid. Highest grazing rates occurred offshore in both years, and in the south during 2009 and north during 2010, all associated with the presence of large localized salp blooms. During both years, E. superba was the major grazer at the coast, while S. thompsoni dominated grazing offshore. L. helicina was an important grazer throughout the study area during both years, but especially so over the shelf during 2009. During 2009, there was little difference in the relative importance of the macrozooplankton grazers along the north–south gradient. The presence of a salp bloom in the north during 2010, though, resulted in a distinct shift in the relative importance of major grazers from the euphausiids and L. helicina in the south to salps in the north. Grazing impact was low in coastal waters (≤0.3% of phytoplankton standing stock and ≤0.6% of primary productivity). In contrast, in the offshore waters, where salp blooms were observed, grazing impacts of up to 30% of standing stock and 169% of primary productivity were recorded. If S. thompsoni and L. helicina continue to expand their ranges and increase in abundance, the associated shift in the food web dynamics of the WAP will alter the regional flow of carbon through the WAP food webs and the export of carbon to depth. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The article examines the climate variability in the northern Antarctic Peninsula region. It investigates the association between stable isotope content of precipitation and firn, and the major meteorological variables such as air, temperature, and sea surface. It reveals that deuterium excess oscillation constitutes a strong indicator of the meteorological variability on a seasonal to sub-seasonal scale.

The Antarctic Peninsula has warmed significantly since the 1950s. This pronounced and isolated warming trend is collectively captured by 29 twentieth-century climate hindcasts participating in the version 3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. To understand the factors driving warming trends in the hindcasts, we examine trends in Peninsula region's atmospheric heat budget in every simulation. We find that atmospheric latent heat release increases in nearly all hindcasts. These increases are generally anthropogenic in origin, and account for about 60% of the ensemble-mean warming trend in the Peninsula. They are driven primarily by well-understood features of the anthropogenic intensification of global hydrological cycle. As sea surface temperature increases, moisture contained in atmospheric flows increases. When such flows are forced to ascend the Peninsula's topography, enhanced local latent heat release results. The mechanism driving the warming of the Antarctic Peninsula is therefore clear in the models. Evidence for a similar mechanism operating in the real world is seen in the increasing snow accumulation rates inferred from ice cores drilled in the Peninsula. However, the relative importance of this mechanism and other processes previously identified as potentially causing the observed warming, such as the recent sea ice retreat in the Bellingshausen Sea, is difficult to assess. Thus the relevance of the simulated warming mechanism to the observed warming is unclear, in spite of its robustness in the models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic Peninsula is considered to be the last region of Antarctica to have been fully glaciated as a result of Cenozoic climatic cooling. As such, it was likely the last refugium for plants and animals that had inhabited the continent since it separated from the Gondwana supercontinent. Drill cores and seismic data acquired during two cruises (SHALDRIL I and II) in the northernmost Peninsula region yield a record that, when combined with existing data, indicates progressive cooling and associated changes in terrestrial vegetation over the course of the past 37 million years. Mountain glaciation began in the latest Eocene (approximately 37-34 Ma), contemporaneous with glaciation elsewhere on the continent and a reduction in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This climate cooling was accompanied by a decrease in diversity of the angiosperm-dominated vegetation that inhabited the northern peninsula during the Eocene. A mosaic of southern beech and conifer-dominated woodlands and tundra continued to occupy the region during the Oligocene (approximately 34-23 Ma). By the middle Miocene (approximately 16-11.6 Ma), localized pockets of limited tundra still existed at least until 12.8 Ma. The transition from temperate, alpine glaciation to a dynamic, polythermal ice sheet took place during the middle Miocene. The northernmost Peninsula was overridden by an ice sheet in the early Pliocene (approximately 5.3-3.6 Ma). The long cooling history of the peninsula is consistent with the extended timescales of tectonic evolution of the Antarctic margin, involving the opening of ocean passageways and associated establishment of circumpolar circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological relationships of krill and whales have not been explored in the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), and have only rarely been studied elsewhere in the Southern Ocean. In the austral autumn we observed an extremely high density (5.1 whales per km2) of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) feeding on a super-aggregation of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) in Wilhelmina Bay. The krill biomass was approximately 2 million tons, distributed over an area of 100 km2 at densities of up to 2000 individuals m-3; reports of such 'super-aggregations' of krill have been absent in the scientific literature for >20 years. Retentive circulation patterns in the Bay entrained phytoplankton and meso-zooplankton that were grazed by the krill. Tagged whales rested during daylight hours and fed intensively throughout the night as krill migrated toward the surface. We infer that the previously unstudied WAP embayments are important foraging areas for whales during autumn and, furthermore, that meso-scale variation in the distribution of whales and their prey are important features of this system. Recent decreases in the abundance of Antarctic krill around the WAP have been linked to reductions in sea ice, mediated by rapid climate change in this area. At the same time, baleen whale populations in the Southern Ocean, which feed primarily on krill, are recovering from past exploitation. Consideration of these features and the effects of climate change on krill dynamics are critical to managing both krill harvests and the recovery of baleen whales in the Southern Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A recent study on cloud observations reports an increase in total cloud cover at Faraday/Vernadsky since 1960 in the annual and wintertime data. The aim of this present study is to investigate whether this increase in total cloud cover has influenced the precipitation in this region. For this purpose, precipitation observations at the Antarctic base Faraday/Vernadsky between 1960 and 1999 were analysed. A positive trend, significant at the 5% level, was found in the number of precipitation events recorded during winter, showing an increase of 13 events per decade. The annual number of precipitation days has increased by 5.7 per decade during the period of investigation, with highest increase rates being observed in winter and autumn. The characteristics of these findings confirm that results previously published though trends presented here are ∼50% smaller due to a more thorough data quality control of the observational data. These results indicate that an increase in total cloud cover at Faraday/Vernadsky observed since 1960 in the annual and wintertime data is reflected in higher numbers of precipitation events and days. Analyses of the precipitation type found an increase in the proportion of events of non-frozen precipitation, which is significant (1% level) on an annual basis as well as in spring and autumn (both significant at 5% level). This is a clear manifestation of the year round temperature increase observed over the Antarctic Peninsula. The increase in non-frozen precipitation will have reduced the albedo in the region and will thus have contributed to the temperature-albedo feedback. To refreeze rain that is draining through glaciers energy is extracted from the surrounding ice, thereby physically corroding the ice. This will have contributed to the observed retreat of glaciers around the Antarctic Peninsula. As non-frozen precipitation falling on frozen ground cannot be stored but instead runs off, less water will be available for the ecosystem. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ecosystems of the western Antarctic Peninsula, experiencing amongst the most rapid trends of regional climate warming worldwide, are important "early warning" indicators for responses expected in more complex systems else- where. Central among responses attributed to this regional warming are widely reported population and range expansions of the two native Antarctic flowering plants, Deschampsia antarctica and Colobanthus quitensis. However, confirmation of the predictions of range expansion requires baseline knowledge of species distributions. We report a significant southwards and westwards extension of the known natural distributions of both plant species in this region, along with several range extensions in an unusual moss community, based on a new survey work in a previously unexamined and un-named low altitude peninsula at 69°22.0'S 71°50.7'W in Lazarev Bay, north-west Alexander Island, southern Antarctic Peninsula. These plant species therefore have a significantly larger natural range in the Antarctic than previously thought. This site provides a potentially important monitoring location near the southern boundary of the region currently demonstrated to be under the influence of rapidly changing climate trends. Combined radiocarbon and lead isotope radiometric dating suggests that this location was most likely deglaciated sufficiently to allow peat to start accumulating towards the end of the 19th century, which we tentatively link to a phase of post-1870 climate amelioration. We conclude that the establishment of vegetation in this location is unlikely to be linked to the rapid regional warming trends recorded along the Antarctic Peninsula since the mid-20th century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the relationship between climate change and hydrate stability in two peri-Antarctic areas: Antarctic Peninsula and South Chile. We consider these areas because the polar and subpolar areas are the most sensitive about global change. The zone, where the methane can be easily released by hydrate melting, is the shallow water, that is, in proximity of the intersection between the BSR and the sea bottom. In order to simulate the effect of climate change on hydrate stability, we consider the following seven scenarios for both areas: present environmental condition; sea bottom temperature increase/decrease of 1◦C water depth increase/decrease of 100 m; sea bottom temperature and water depth increase/decrease of 1◦C and 100 m, respectively. On the basis of our result, we can draw the conclusion that the modeling is a useful tool to understand the effect of the climate change on hydrate stability. Moreover, in these areas where the sea bottom temperature is influenced by temperature increase, slides could be easily triggered by hydrate dissociation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyses of a 12 m marine sediment core from Neny Fjord, Marguerite Bay, Antarctic Peninsula (68.2571°S, 66.9617°W), yield a high-resolution record of Holocene climate variability. The sediments preserve signals of past glacial and marine environments and offer a unique insight into atmospheric and oceanic forcings on the western Antarctic Peninsula climate. Dating of basal material reveals that deglaciation of the fjord occurred prior to 9040 cal. yr BP and provides a minimum constraint on the timing of deglaciation close to the southern Antarctic Peninsula ice-divide. Continuous deposition of ice-distal sediments and seasonally open-water diatoms indicates that the site has not been over-ridden by glacier ice during the Holocene. A facies of sand-rich material offers the only evidence of a localized glacier advance, during the mid Holocene. Statistical analysis of diatom assemblage data reveals several climatic episodes of varying magnitude and duration. These include an early-Holocene warm period (∼9000 and ∼7000 cal. yr BP), potentially associated with influx of Circumpolar Deep Water onto the continental shelf and coinciding with widespread glacial retreat and Holocene collapse of the George VI Ice Shelf. The mid-Holocene (∼7000 to ∼2800 cal. yr BP) sediments are characterized by diatom assemblages indicative of less pervasive sea-ice cover and prolonged growing seasons with evidence of increased meltwater discharge from ∼4000 cal. yr BP. The youngest sediments (∼2800 cal. yr BP to present) contain a record that is consistent with the widely documented 'neoglacial' period followed by an abrupt reversal and climate amelioration from sometime after ∼200 cal. yr BP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examined the influence of warming and supplemental precipitation on plant production and abundance of the dominant microarthropod, the springtail Cryptopygus antarcticus (Collembola), in tundra dominated by the vascular plants Colobanthus quitensis and Deschampsia antarctica along the Antarctic Peninsula. Tundra cores were placed in plots near Palmer Station where they were warmed with infrared heaters in combination with receiving supplemental precipitation. Diel canopy air and soil temperatures and air vapor pressure deficits in warmed plots were elevated 0.8 °C, 2.2 °C and 0.13 kPa, respectively. After two growing seasons, total aboveground plant production was greater under warming as a result of enhanced production by C. quitensis, which more than offset declines in moss biomass. Total aboveground plant production was also greater under supplemental precipitation primarily as a result of enhanced moss production. Total aboveground plant production was greatest under the combination of warming and supplemental precipitation, primarily as a result of enhanced C. quitensis production. C. antarcticus were more abundant in cores receiving supplemental precipitation and there was a strong treatment interaction; these springtails were most abundant in warmed cores receiving supplemental precipitation. Over 50% of the variability in the abundance of C. antarcticus could be explained by differences in aboveground plant biomass. However, plant production did not appear directly responsible for differences in C. antarcticus abundance; when we examined C. antarcticus abundance per unit of aboveground plant biomass, differences in its abundance among treatments were still apparent implying these differences were not the direct result of plant biomass. The responses of C. antarcticus were consistent with its known moisture and thermal preferences, suggesting that abiotic factors played a dominant role in controlling its abundance. Precipitation regime had large impacts on warming responses and these were species specific, illustrating the importance of future precipitation regimes in predicting system responses to warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the three fastest warming regions on Earth. Here we review Holocene proxy records of marine and terrestrial palaeoclimate in the region, and discuss possible forcing mechanisms underlying past change, with a specific focus on past warm periods. Our aim is to critically evaluate the mechanisms by which palaeoclimate changes might have occurred, in order to provide a longer-term context for assessing the drivers of recent warming. Two warm events are well recorded in the Holocene palaeoclimate record, namely the early Holocene warm period, and the 'Mid Holocene Hypsithermal' (MHH), whereas there are fewer proxy data for the 'Mediaeval Warm Period' (MWP) and the 'Recent Rapid Regional' (RRR) warming. We show that the early Holocene warm period and MHH might be explained by relatively abrupt shifts in position of the Southern Westerlies, superimposed on slower solar insolation changes. A key finding of our synthesis is that the marine and terrestrial records in the AP appear to show markedly different behaviour during the MHH. This might be partly explained by contrasts in the seasonal insolation forcing between these records. Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) has been implicated in several of the prominent changes through the Holocene but there are still differences in interpretation of the proxy record that make its influence difficult to assess. Further work is required to investigate contrasts between marine and terrestrial proxy records, east-west contrasts in palaeoclimate, the history of CDW, to retrieve a long onshore high resolution record of the Holocene, and determine the role of sea ice in driving or modulating palaeoclimate change, along with further efforts to study the proxy record of the RRR and the MWP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We passively warmed tundra on the Antarctic Peninsula over four growing seasons and assessed its effect on dry mass and C and N stocks associated with the vascular plants Colobanthus quitensis (a cushion-forming forb) and Deschampsia antarctica (a tussock grass), and mosses. Temperature treatments involved a warmed treatment that raised diurnal and diel canopy air temperatures by 2.3 and 1.3 °C, respectively, and a near-ambient temperature treatment that raised diurnal and diel temperatures by 0.2 °C. These two different temperature regimes were achieved by wrapping filters around the frames to different extents and were nested within three UV treatments that filtered different solar UV wavebands. The experiment also included an ambient control treatment (unfiltered frames), and supplemental water and fertilizer treatments (applied to unfiltered frames). After four growing seasons, we collected cores of each vascular plant species and assessed the mass and C and N content of the aboveground current-year biomass, the litter layer (which included nongreen live stems), and the organic soil horizon (which included roots). The thin nature of the organic soil horizon allowed us to sample this complete horizon and estimate near-total ecosystem C and N stocks. A comparison of the warmed and near-ambient temperature treatments found that warming led to greater aboveground biomass of C. quitensis, and more C in the aboveground biomass of both vascular plant species. Warming resulted in lower N concentrations of the aboveground biomass of both species. The water use efficiency of both species was greater under warming, based on their higher δ13C values. The mass of the litter layer under C. quitensis was greater under warming, and this layer contained more C and N and had a higher C : N ratio. The mass of the organic soil horizon under both species was greater under warming, and this horizon also contained more C and N. Warming also changed the species composition of the plant community – cover of C. quitensis increased while that of mosses declined. Warming resulted in the input of biomass into the system that had greater C : N ratios (and was likely more recalcitrant to decomposition) because (1) warming increased the C : N ratio of the biomass produced by both vascular plant species, (2) these inputs increased with warming because of greater biomass production, and (3) increases in C. quitensis cover led to greater biomass inputs by this species and its biomass had a greater C : N ratio than D. antarctica. Water or fertilizer supplements had few effects on aboveground biomass or C and N concentrations or pools, consistent with the relatively wet maritime climate and high soil nutrient levels of this system. Total C pools in the aboveground biomass, litter, and organic soil horizon were greater under warming. Warmed plots contained from 272 to 319 g m−2 more C than plots under near-ambient temperatures, corresponding to a 23–34% increase in ecosystem C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disturbance has always shaped the evolution and ecology of organisms and nowhere is this more apparent that on the iceberg gouged continental shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). The vast majority of currently described polar biodiversity occurs on the Southern Ocean shelf but current and projected climate change is rapidly altering disturbance intensities in some regions. The AP is now amongst the fastest warming and changing regions on earth. Seasonal sea ice has decreased in time and extent, most glaciers in the region have retreated, a number of ice shelves have collapsed, and the surface waters of the seas west of the AP have warmed. Here, we review the influences of disturbance from ice, sedimentation, freshening events, wave action and humans on shallow water benthic assemblages, and suggest how disturbance pressures will change during the 21st century in the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) and Scotia Arc region. We suggest that the intensity of ice scouring will increase in the region over the next few decades as a result of decreased winter sea ice periods and increased ice loading into coastal waters. Thus, the most frequently disturbed environment on earth will become more so, which will lead to considerable changes in community structure and species distributions. However, as ice fronts retreat past their respective grounding lines, sedimentation and freshening events will become relatively more important. Human presence in the region is increasing, through research, tourism, and resource exploitation, which represents a considerable threat to polar biodiversity over the next century. Adapting to or tolerating multiple, changing environmental stressors will be difficult for a fauna with typically slow generation turnovers that has evolved largely in isolation. We suggest that intensifying acute and chronic disturbances are likely to cause significant changes in ecosystem structure, and probably a considerable loss of polar marine biodiversity, over relatively short timescales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the mid-1960s, rapid regional summer warming has occurred on the east coast of the northern Antarctic Peninsula, with near-surface temperatures increasing by more than 2°C. This warming has contributed significantly to the collapse of the northern sections of the Larsen Ice Shelf. Coincident with this warming, the summer Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) has exhibited a marked trend, suggested by modeling studies to be predominantly a response to anthropogenic forcing, resulting in increased westerlies across the northern peninsula. Observations and reanalysis data are utilized to demonstrate that the changing SAM has played a key role in driving this local summer warming. It is proposed that the stronger summer westerly winds reduce the blocking effect of the Antarctic Peninsula and lead to a higher frequency of air masses being advected eastward over the orographic barrier of the northern Antarctic Peninsula. When this occurs, a combination of a climatological temperature gradient across the barrier and the formation of a föhn wind on the lee side typically results in a summer near-surface temperature sensitivity to the SAM that is 3 times greater on the eastern side of the peninsula than on the west. SAM variability is also shown to play a less important role in determining summer temperatures at stations west of the barrier in the northern peninsula (∼62°S), both at the surface and throughout the troposphere. This is in contrast to a station farther south (∼65°S) where the SAM exerts little influence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide the first comprehensive account of habitat preference, mating, oviposition and developmental stages of Parochius steinenii. There are eight records from the South Shetland Islands. On King George Island, none out of 40 temporary ponds and 9% out of 44 lakes with variable water levels were inhabited by P. steinenii. By contrast, 94% of 52 lakes with stable water levels were occupied, for 92% of which breeding was confirmed. Lakes were occupied independently of their height above sea level ranging from 5 to 115 m. The midges aggregated at two different microhabitats at the shoreline of lakes. Terrestrial swarms of more than 5000 individuals at open wind sheltered rocks were strongly dominated by males. Their mean density was 40, their maximum 150 ind. cm-2. Aggregations under stones at the water edge showed a female-biased or equal sex ratio; their densities seasonally increased from 0.17 to 2.02 ind. cm-2. Female midges produced one to four egg batches totalling on average 247 eggs/female. Four larval stages can be clearly discriminated by head length. Our data on the habitat preferences and the high reproductive output predict that P. steinenii will rapidly colonize habitats that become available in the course of the regional warming of the Antarctic Peninsula region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term records from meteorological stations on the Antarctic Peninsula show strong rising trends in the annual duration of melting conditions. In each case, the trend is statistically significant and represents a major increase in the potential for melting; for example, between 1950 and 2000 the record from Faraday/Vernadsky Station showed a 74% increase in the number of positive degree-days (PDDs). A simple parameterization of the likely effects of the warming on the rate of snow melt suggests an increase across the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet from 28 ± 12 Gt a-1 in 1950, to 54 ± 26 Gt a-1 by 2000. Given a similar rate of warming over the next 50 years this may reach 100 ± 46 Gt a-1. The majority of this increased meltwater does not drain into the sea but is refrozen in the ice sheet, and it is difficult to predict the fraction of ablation that will become runoff; however, a calculation based on an established criterion for runoff indicates that the contribution from the Antarctic Peninsula, as a direct and immediate response to climate warming is significant, equivalent to (0.008-0.055) mm a-1 of global sea level rise. Given future warming this could easily treble in the coming 50 years. This contribution due to increased runoff could be augmented by any dynamic imbalance in the glaciers draining the ice sheet. This finding appears to contradict the conclusions of previous assessments, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which considered the contribution of runoff from Antarctica to sea level rise would be insignificant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human faecal waste has been discarded at inland Antarctic sites for over 100 years, but little is known about the long-term survival of faecal microorganisms in the Antarctic terrestrial environment or the environmental impact. This study identified viable faecal microorganisms in 30-40 year old human faeces sampled from the waste dump at Fossil Bluff Field Station, Alexander Island, Antarctic Peninsula. Viable aerobic and anaerobic bacteria were predominantly spore-forming varieties (Bacillus and Clostridium spp.). Faecal coliform bacteria were not detected, indicating that they are less able to survive Antarctic environmental conditions than spore-forming bacteria. In recent years, regional warming around the Antarctic Peninsula has caused a decrease in permanent snow cover around nunataks and coastal regions. As a result, previously buried toilet pits, depots and food dumps are now melting out and Antarctic Treaty Parties face the legacy of waste dumped in the Antarctic terrestrial environment by earlier expeditions. Previous faecal waste disposal on land may now start to produce detectable environmental pollution as well as potential health and scientific problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed that mean global warming was 0.6 ± 0.2 °C during the 20th century and cited anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases as the likely cause of temperature rise in the last 50 years. But this mean value conceals the substantial complexity of observed climate change, which is seasonally- and diurnally-biased, decadally-variable and geographically patchy. In particular, over the last 50 years three high-latitude areas have undergone recent rapid regional (RRR) warming, which was substantially more rapid than the global mean. However, each RRR warming occupies a different climatic regime and may have an entirely different underlying cause. We discuss the significance of RRR warming in one area, the Antarctic Peninsula. Here warming was much more rapid than in the rest of Antarctica where it was not significantly different to the global mean. We highlight climate proxies that appear to show that RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula is unprecedented over the last two millennia, and so unlikely to be a natural mode of variability. So while the station records do not indicate a ubiquitous polar amplification of global warming, the RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula might be a regional amplification of such warming. This, however, remains unproven since we cannot yet be sure what mechanism leads to such an amplification. We discuss several possible candidate mechanisms: changing oceanographic or changing atmospheric circulation, or a regional air-sea-ice feedback amplifying greenhouse warming. We can show that atmospheric warming and reduction in sea-ice duration coincide in a small area on the west of the Antarctic Peninsula, but here we cannot yet distinguish cause and effect. Thus for the present we cannot determine which process is the probable cause of RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula and until the mechanism initiating and sustaining the RRR warming is understood, and is convincingly reproduced in climate models, we lack a sound basis for predicting climate change in this region over the coming century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated one active and three abandoned Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colonies in northern Marguerite Bay, Antarctic Peninsula, during austral summer 2000. Extinct colonies were located by ground survey on small islands and recognized by concentrations of nest pebbles. The colonies were excavated to recover organic remains from ornithogenic soils. Radiocarbon dates on penguin bone and eggshell provided a 6,000-year occupation history after correction for the marine-carbon reservoir effect; this history was compared to the paleoclimate record (ice cores and marine sediments) to assess patterns in occupation by penguins with episodes of climate change. We quantified prey remains recovered from the sites to examine potential dietary shifts by penguins with climatic change. Two species, Antarctic silverfish (Pleuragramma antarcticum) and squid (Psychroteuthis glacialis), were most commonly represented in the sediments. The data indicate that silverfish may have been exploited more during cool, and squid in warm climatic intervals in the past. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]