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The paper presents trends for three categories of variables: average annual, average maximum and average minimum air temperatures. Data was provided by the meteorological yearbooks of the Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia. The main goal of this paper is to detect possible temperature trends in Central Serbia. The trend equation, trend magnitude, and Mann-Kendall non-parametric test were used in the analysis of climate parameters. The used statistical methods were supplemented by GIS numerical analysis, which aimed to analyze the spatial distribution of isotherms from 1949 to 2018. The obtained results indicate that out of the 72 analyzed time series, an increase in air temperature is dominant in 61 time series, while 11 time series show no changes. The highest increase was recorded in the average maximum time series (4.2 °C), followed by an increase of 3.5°C in average maximum air temperatures. The highest increase in the average annual time-series was 3.0 °C. The lowest increases in air temperature were recorded in the average minimum time series (0.1 and 0.2 °C). In two average minimum time series a decrease in average air temperatures was identified (-0.6 and -0.4 °C. The application of GIS tools indicates the existence of interregional differences in the arrangement of isotherms, leaded by the orography of the terrain. In the spatial distribution of the analyzed variables, "poles of heat" and "poles of cold" stand out, and the influence of the urban heat island is evident (especially in the case of the urban agglomeration of Belgrade). The manifested spatial patterns of air temperature need to be further examined and the correlation with possible causes need to be determined. For these reasons, the paper provides a solid basis for studying the climate of this area in the future, as it provides insight into climate dynamics over the past decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the research is the examination of the factors influencing the public perception of climate change and its impact on natural disasters. This paper presents the results of quantitative research regarding testing the central hypothesis where education is the predicting variable of public perception of climate change and its impact on natural disasters. A multivariate regression analysis was used, identifying the extent of the total scores of the main dependent variables (perception of vulnerability to climate change, perception of the climate change impact on natural disasters, knowledge and fear scores) were associated with five demographic and socio-economic variables: gender, age, marital status, education level, and employment status. A series of 208 face-to-face interviews were conducted during the beginning of 2020 on the central squares in the selected cities in Serbia, Belgrade (76.92%) and Sremska Mitrovica (23.08%). The results showed that education level was the most effective predictor of the mentioned research variables. Besides, employment status has been found to affect perceptions of vulnerability, while age affects the perceptions of climate change. Based on the obtained results, policies and strategies to improve people's awareness of climate change must take into account a comprehensive understanding of behavioral dispositions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose -- The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether is Belgrade (Serbia) suitable candidate for introduction of Heat Health Warning System (HHWS). Belgrade has high population density, considerable share of built up area and lot of multi floor buildings that are factors of heat-health vulnerability. Design/methodology/approach -- The authors analyzed the impact of weather conditions on human health in Belgrade during the summer 2007 that was extremely warm in Southeastern Europe and Serbia. Daily cardiovascular, cerebrovascular and respiratory mortality counts were used in Poisson regression model with air temperature as predictor variable. Also, three different heat wave indices (Warm Spell Duration Index, apparent temperature and index based on daily minimum temperature) were tested in order to estimate their ability to capture episodes with mortality higher than expected. Findings -- The temperature has the highest influence on cerebrovascular and cardiovascular mortality, while slightly modifies respiratory mortality. According to regression equation, a 1°C increase in mean daily temperature is associated with a 4.6 percent (p < 0.0001), 2.2 percent (p < 0.0001) and 1.6 percent (insignificant for p <0.10) increase in cerebrovascular, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, respectively. Originality/value -- Even thought the Law recognizes the heat wave as natural hazard, there is no concrete measures and action for prevention of excess mortality. It is shown that extreme temperature had numerous social consequences on city's residents in the summer 2007. Given the results the authors got, it is recommended that the HHWS should be implemented in health protection plans in Belgrade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil erosion is a global problem that negatively affects the quality of the environment, the availability of natural resources, as well as the safety of inhabitants. Soil erosion threatens the functioning of urban areas, which was the reason for choosing the territory of the Master Plan of Belgrade (Serbia) as the research area. The calculation of soil erosion loss was analyzed using the G2 erosion model. The model belongs to a group of empirical models and is based on the synthesis of the equation from the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and the Erosion Potential Method (EPM). The estimation of soil degradation was analyzed in two time periods (2001 and 2019), which represent the time boundaries of the management of the Master Plan of Belgrade. The novel approach used in this research is based on using the land cover inventory as a dynamic indicator of the urbanization process. Land cover was identified using remote sensing, machine learning techniques, and the random forest algorithm applied to multispectral satellite images of the Landsat mission in combination with spectral indices. Climatic parameters were analyzed on the basis of data from meteorological stations (first scenario, i.e., 2001), as well as on simulations of changes based on climate scenario RCP8.5 (representative concentration pathways) concerning the current condition of the land cover (second scenario). A comparative analysis of the two time periods identified a slight reduction in total soil loss. For the first period, the average soil loss value is 4.11 t·ha−1·y−1. The analysis of the second period revealed an average value of 3.63 t·ha−1·y−1. However, the increase in non-porous surfaces has led to a change in the focus of soil degradation. Increased average soil loss as one of the catalysts of torrential flood frequencies registered on natural and semi-natural areas were 43.29% and 16.14%, respectively. These results are a significant contribution to the study of soil erosion in urban conditions under the impact of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Simulated and discussed proposed district heating system development. • The climate issues are not in focus in Belgrade's strategic documents. • The heat energy from TPP provoke reduction of import dependency for almost 4 times. • The positive effect of the introduction of RES is nullified by the introduction of lignite. • Without energy efficiency measures, the CO 2 emission is growing. The district heating system (DHS) is one of the key elements of the Belgrade energy system. Overview of the current state and basic characteristics of the DHS are presented in this paper. The focus is on the planned development of DHS and on the analyses of effects of realization of measures and projects defined by strategic documents related to DHS which are adopted by city authorities (Development Strategy of DHS and Strategy of Belgrade Development). Two exploratory scenarios were developed by using the LEAP tool. Heat consumption, fuel mix, and CO 2 emission are presented for both scenarios. Different measures on the demand side and infrastructural development in these two scenarios are analyzed using indicators related to the security of supply (primary energy factor, import dependency) and to climate change (CO 2 emissions). The results show that the aim of current strategic documents was to provide security of supply (mostly by the introduction of heat from the thermal powerplant and to less extent by the introduction of RES and improvement of efficiency), while the climate issues were mostly neglected. The positive effect of the introduction of RES to CO 2 emission was nullified by the indirect introduction of lignite in the energy mix. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interactions between plants, insects and pathogens are complex and not sufficiently understood in the context of climate change. In this study, the impact of a root pathogen on a leaf-eating insect hosted by a tree species at elevated CO2 concentration is reported for the first time. The combined and isolated effects of CO2 and infection by the root pathogen Phytophthora plurivora on English oak (Quercus robur) seedlings were used to assess growth rates of plants and of gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) larvae. For this purpose, two Q. robur provenances (Belgrade and Sombor) were used. At ambient CO2 concentration, the relative growth rates of larvae consuming leaves of plants infected by P. plurivora was higher than those consuming non-infected plants. However, at elevated CO2 concentration (1000 ppm) higher relative growth rates were detected in the larvae consuming the leaves of non-infected plants. At ambient CO2 concentration, lower growth rates were recorded in L. dispar larvae hosted in Q. robur from Belgrade in comparison to larvae hosted in Q. robur from Sombor. However, at elevated CO2 concentration, similar growth rates irrespective of the provenance were observed. Defoliation by the gypsy moth did not influence the growth of plants while P. plurivora infection significantly reduced tree height in seedlings from Belgrade. The results confirm that a rise of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere modifies the existing interactions between P. plurivora, Q. robur, and L. dispar. Moreover, the influence of the tree provenances on both herbivore and plant performance at elevated CO2 concentrations suggests a potential for increasing forest resilience through breeding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]