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The increasing global warming trend has resulted in the mass loss of most glaciers. The Urumqi Vally, located in the dry and cold zone of China, and its widely dispersed glaciers are significant to the regional ecological environment, oasis economic development, and industrial and agricultural production. This is representative of glaciers in Middle Asia and represents one of the world's longest observed time series of glaciers, beginning in 1959. The Urumqi Headwater Glacier No. 1 (UHG-1) has a dominant presence in the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS). This paper supplies a comprehensive analysis of past studies and future modeling of glacier changes in the Urumqi Valley. It has received insufficient attention in the past, and the mass balance of UHG-1 was used to verify that the geodetic results and the OGGM model simulation results are convincing. The main conclusions are: The area of 48.68 ± 4.59 km2 delineated by 150 glaciers in 1958 decreased to 21.61 ± 0.27 km2 delineated by 108 glaciers in 2022, with a reduction of 0.47 ± 0.04 km2·a−1 (0.96% a−1 in 1958–2022). The glacier mass balance by geodesy is −0.69 ± 0.11 m w.e.a−1 in 2000–2022, which is just deviating from the measured result (−0.66 m w.e.a−1), but the geodetic result in this paper can be enough to reflect the glacier changes (−0.65 ± 0.11 m w.e.a−1) of the URB in 2000–2022. The future loss rate of area and volume will undergo a rapid and then decelerating process, with the fastest and slowest inflection points occurring around 2035 and 2070, respectively. High temperatures and large precipitation in summer accelerate glacier loss, and the corresponding lag period of glacier change to climate is about 2–3 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central Asia is considered a region highly vulnerable to climate change impact and susceptible to climate-induced migration. Rural populations throughout the region are particularly at risk of experiencing adverse effects of climate variability and (im) mobility due to increased exposure to environmental hazards and distress that can severely affect agricultural productivity. This paper explores how climate change impacts migration trends in rural areas of Central Asia with an aim to contribute to the research on climate mobility in the region focusing on most vulnerable inhabitants. By examining the ongoing region's environmental degradation with increased aridity and retreating glaciers that affect local agriculture, water and food security, this paper suggests possible outcomes of such effects on rural mobility trends across five Central Asian countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Together with other elevated areas, the Mountains of Central Asia are significantly threatened by ongoing climate change. The presence of refuges during the glaciations makes the region extremely rich in species, especially endemic ones. However, the limited potential for colonisation of other habitats makes rocky-related species with 'island‐like' distribution, particularly vulnerable to climate change. To understand the processes underlying species response to climate warming, we assessed differences in ecological niches and phylogenetic relationship of two geographically disjunctive alpine species belonging to the genus Sergia. The taxa are considered Tertiary relicts, endemic to the Tian Shan and Pamir-Alai Mountains. To illustrate range dynamics and differences in occupied niches of Sergia species, we used Ecological Niche Modelling of current and future distribution. Whereas, to reconstruct the phylogenetic relationship within and between Sergia and other related Campanulaceae species from the region we used molecular data (ITS, cpDNA, DArTseq-derived SNPs). Results: The results reveal that the genus Sergia is a polyphyletic group, and its representatives differ geographically, ecologically and genetically. Both S. regelii and S. sewerzowii constitute a common clade with Asyneuma group, however, S. sewerzowii is more closely related to Campanula alberti (a species that has never previously been considered closely related to the genus Asyneuma or Sergia) than to S. regelii. Sergia sewerzowii is adapted to lower elevations with higher temperatures, while S. regelii prefers higher elevations with lower temperatures. The future distribution models demonstrate a dramatic loss of S. regelii range with a shift to suitable habitats in higher elevations, while the potential range of S. sewerzowii increases and shifts to the north. Conclusions: This study shows that S. regelii and S. sewerzowii have a long and independent evolution history. Sergia regelii and S. sewerzowii significantly differ in realised niches. These differences are mirrored in the response of the studied endemics to future climate warming. As suitable habitats shrink, rapid changes in distribution can lead to species' range loss, which is also directly related to declines in genetic variability. The outcomes of this paper will help to more precisely assess the impact of climate changes on rocky-related plant species found in this world's biodiversity hotspot. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concern for the issues related to the growing needs of human civilization like resource depletion, pollution, climate changes, and health risk has led to a search for eco-friendly alternatives to environmental problems. Recently, hemp started gaining popularity for its medicinal, nontoxic, greenhouse negative, and biodegradable properties. Originating from the steppes of Central Asia, Cannabis sativa L. (hemp) is one of the oldest domesticated plants known to humans. Since 5000-4000 BC, different parts of the plant were used for spinning, weaving, papermaking, the seed for human feed, animal feeds, medicinal, and health purposes. Reports also suggest the use of hemp as an organic additive in the historic earthen plasters of Ellora Caves, India (6th Century). Due to its psychoactive and recreational properties, this environmentally friendly plant lost its importance eventually in the 19th century and its cultivation was made illegal. People, in general, changed their outlook towards the plant and considered it a sign of moral indignation. Recently, food, pharmaceutical, textile, paper, building, energy, and other industries found hemp to be a promising solution for synthetic-based economies. Since then, the cultivation of hemp has been reintroduced, legalized in some countries, and now in recent times, there has been a good reimplementation of the plant in creating a green economy. This review will highlight the application of hemp and display its outstanding qualities in minimizing environmental and health issues. Based on the knowledge gained from various scientific resources; the commercial, industrial, and agricultural potential of the plant will be unveiled to give more push towards the hemp cultivation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban areas continue to be the center of action for many countries due to their contribution to economic development. Many urban areas, through the urbanization process, have become vulnerable to climate risk, thereby making risk mitigation and adaptation essential components in urban planning. The study assessed the impacts of IPCC Assessment Reports (ARs) on academic research on risk mitigation and adaptation concerns in urban areas. The study systematically reviewed literature through searches of the Web of Science and Scopus databases; 852 papers were retrieved and 370 were deemed eligible. The results showed that the East Asia and Pacific, and Europe and Central Asia regions were most interested in IPCC ARs, while Sub-Saharan Africa showed little interest. Several urban concerns, including socio-economic, air quality, extreme temperature, sea level rise/flooding, health, and water supply/drought, were identified. Additionally, studies on negative health outcomes due to extreme temperatures and air pollution did not appear in the first four IPCC ARs. However, significant studies appeared after the launch of the AR5. Here, we must state that climate-related problems of urbanization were known and discussed in scientific papers well before the formation of the IPCC. For instance, the works of Clarke on urban structure and heat mortality and Oke on climatic impacts of urbanization. Though the IPCC ARs show impact, their emphasis on combined mitigation and adaptation policies is limited. This study advocates more combined risk mitigation and adaptation policies in urban areas for increased resilience to climate risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article aims to introduce different views regarding the concept of adaptive capacity in water governance and unpack it in the Central Asian context, specifically. The desk study research built on the recommendations provided by the academia, policy papers and by experts on enhancing adaptive water governance. The juxtaposition of the three sets of recommendations demonstrates that the further strengthening of IWRM, as well as experimental approach to resource management, improved access to climate knowledge and disaster risk reduction mechanisms can consolidate the adaptive capacities of Central Asian water governance systems. The research was limited by the specific set of selected opinions and should be expanded in the future. As a practical outcome, the analysis aimed to provide the decision-makers in Central Asian states with better science-based avenues to planning adaptation measures ensuite the water sector. Thus, the study can be considered a stepping stone in the discussion on the adaptive capacities of water governance in the Central Asian region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study quantitatively reviewed the literature related to SDG 11 (Sustainable Development Goal 11) between 2015 and 2022 using bibliometric and spatial autocorrelation methods. The results showed that the amount of SDG 11-related literature increased annually since 2015, with an accelerated growth after 2018. The collaborations among countries, institutions, and authors of SDG 11-related literature were identified, with some major authors and institutions acting as links Keyword cluster and timeline analysis indicated that 'Agenda 2030', 'appropriate technologies', and 'country' were the main clusters of research, while 'management,' 'climate change,' and 'impact' were the most popular keywords, and 'urban plan nexus,' 'social cooperation,' and 'renewable energy' were the emerging keywords since 2021. Spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed that countries with more SDG 11-related literature were dispersed geographically. In the Getis-Ord G* analysis, China, the United States, and the United Kingdom were identified as hotspots; whereas Africa and Central Asia were identified as cold spots. To ensure timely implementation of the SDG 11, this study recommends helping less developed countries, resolving sustainable urbanization issues through innovative technology, and promoting more effective planning. It not only attempts a novel approach of using spatial statistics to analyze the bibliometric results but also provides valuable information for policymakers and scholars. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With global warming, the frequency, intensity, and period of extreme climates in more areas will probably increase in the twenty first century. However, the impact of climate extremes on forest vulnerability and the mechanisms by which forests adapt to climate extremes are not clear. The eastern Tianshan Mountains, set within the arid and dry region of Central Asia, is very sensitive to climate change. In this paper, the response of Picea schrenkiana and Larix sibirica to climate fluctuations and their stability were analyzed by Pearson's correlation based on the observation of interannual change rates of climate indexes in different periods. Additionally, their ecological adaptability to future climate change was explored by regression analysis of climate factors and a selection of master control factors using the Lasso model. We found that the climate has undergone significant changes, especially the temperature, from 1958 to 2012. Around 1985, various extreme climate indexes had obvious abrupt changes. The research results suggested that: (1) the responses of the two tree species to extreme climate changed significantly after the change in temperature; (2) Schrenk spruce was more sensitive than Siberian larch to extreme climate change; and (3) the resistance of Siberian larch was higher than that of Schrenk spruce when faced with climate disturbance events. These results indicate that extreme climate changes will significantly interfere with the trees radial growth. At the same time, scientific management and maintenance measures are taken for different extreme weather events and different tree species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The primary aspiration of this paper is to learn about the effects of economic growth, energy consumption, agriculture and irrigation water consumption and agriculture productivity on environmental pollution in five countries of Central Asia. The data cover the period from 1992 to 2020 by applying panel data models, namely the Panel FMOLS, Panel DOLS and Panel ARDL-PMG approaches. The results indicate that there is a positive long-term impact of economic growth, water productivity, energy consumption and electricity production on CO2 emissions while agriculture value added and trade openness have a negative and statistically significant influence on CO2 emissions in Central Asia. Country specific short-run coefficients from Panel ARDL reveal that energy consumption is the main driver for rise in the level of CO2 emissions in the countries under the study. Indeed, country level analysis generates unique nexus correlation among agriculture, energy and environmental degradation in each country of Central Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the 1950s, divergence problems have reduced the temporal stability of tree rings in response to climate, shaken the foundations of dendroclimatology, and affected the reliability of reconstructed models based on tree rings and the accuracy of historical climate series. Therefore, it is of great importance to investigate divergence problems, which will help us to better understand the growth strategies of trees in response to climate warming and provide a scientific basis for accurate climate reconstruction and simulation of forest dynamics. This paper aims to elucidate the mechanism of divergent growth of Picea schrenkiana at high altitudes in the western Tianshan from three aspects: variations in atmospheric circulation, changes in climatic factors, and the coping strategy of trees with climate change. High spring temperatures accelerate the melting of snow cover. Large amounts of snowmelt initially replenish soil water, leading to the rapid growth of trees, but later, the continuous consumption of snowmelt reduces the available water capacity of soil, resulting in water stress on trees. The pattern of trees' response to changes in climate ranges from a pure temperature limitation to a collaborative temperature–moisture limitation. Since the 1990s, the weakening of the westerly circulation and the North Atlantic Oscillation has reduced their impacts on the hydroclimate in the Tianshan Mountains of Central Asia. The combination of heat-induced water deficit and a long-term weakening trend in atmospheric circulation has slowed tree growth over the past decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing demand for food, bioenergy and other agricultural products, as well as the intensification of climate change, pose special challenges for Central Asia's agricultural sector in terms of implementing sustainable land management. Central Asia is a climate change hot spot. Adaptation measures of agricultural land use to climate change imply new trade-offs in terms of quality and provision of ecosystem services. Based on literature studies, this paper identifies examples of such tradeoffs and presents possible solutions. The ecoregions of Central Asia show strong interdependencies. Therefore, a special focus has to be put on the transregional effects of the use of ecosystem services. Against the background of different concepts of sustainable development (ESS, SDG, Global Environmental Syndromes) integrative approaches for sustainable use and design of landscapes are necessary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glacier mass balance can be regarded as a major direct index of climate variations. In this paper, a geodetic method was used to evaluate the mass balance of Sawir glaciers based on topographic map DEM (Digital Elevation Model), SRTM 30 m DEM, ASTER 30 m DEM, and Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar 10 m DEM between 1959–2021, in order to explore the response to climatic alterations. In the case of Muz Taw glacier, the first comprehensive dataset concerning mass-balance readings for the 2014–2021 period was provided based on the eight-year consecutive field measurements. The glaciological average mass balance reached –883.4 ± 130 mm a–1 during this period. The geodetic mass balance for all glaciers of the Sawir Mountain range was −0.43 ± 0.12 m w. e. a−1 between 1959 and 2000, and accelerated to −0.56 ± 0.13 m w. e. a−1 between 2000 and 2021. A comparison of field measurements and remote-sensing approaches for determining the Muz Taw glacier's mass balance between 2014–2021 proves the feasibility of the remote-sensing approach, which involves mass-balance monitoring based on DEMdata. In addition, our findings support the contention that air temperature is the dominant factor for accelerated glacier mass loss and surface elevation change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The number and area of alpine lakes in Tien Shan (TS) are rapidly growing in response to a warming climate and retreating glaciers. This paper presents a comparative analysis of lake classification and changes by dividing alpine lakes (within a 10 km buffer of the glacier margins) into four types (supraglacial lakes, proglacial lakes, extraglacial lakes and non-glacial lakes), and subsequently determining the driving forces of change across the TS region from 1990 to 2015. The analysis utilized multiple satellite images and climatic data from gridded data sets and meteorological station observations. The results indicate that the total number and area of glacial lakes continuously increased during the study period, whereas non-glacial lakes intermittently expanded. Specifically, the total number and area of all glacial lakes (supraglacial lakes, proglacial lakes and extraglacial lakes) increased by 45.45% and 27.08%, respectively. Non-glacial lakes, in contrast, increased in quantity and area by 23.92% and 19.01%, respectively. Alpine lakes are closer to glaciers at high altitudes; in fact, some (e.g., proglacial lakes) are connected to glacier termini, and these show the highest expansion speed during the study period. The area of proglacial lakes expanded by 60.32%. Extraglacial lakes expanded by 21.06%. Supraglacial lakes, in marked contrast to the other types, decreased in area by 3.74%. Widespread rises in temperature and glacier wastage were the primary cause of the steady expansion of glacial lakes, particularly those linked to small- and medium-sized glaciers distributed in the Eastern TS where glacial lakes have rapidly increased. Both proglacial and extraglacial lakes expanded by 6.47%/a and 2%/a, respectively, from 1990 to 2015. While these proglacial and extraglacial lakes are located in largely glacierized areas, lakes in the Central TS exhibited the slowest expansion, increasing in area by 1.44%/a and 0.74%/a, respectively. Alterations in non-glacial lake areas were driven by changes in precipitation and varied spatially over the region. This study has substantial implications for the state of water resources under the complex regional changes in climate in the TS and can be used to develop useful water-resource management and planning strategies throughout Central Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on the no significant harm principle as applied to shared waters in Central Asia (CA): the Aral Sea basin shared by Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan; the Irtysh basin shared by China, Kazakhstan and Russia; and the Chu-Talas basin shared by Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. These transboundary basins are under increased pressure from growing population and economies, unsustainable development and the impact of climate change, making it essential to cooperate and enhance legal regulation. The paper seeks to contribute to a better understating of the nature of legal principles applied to transboundary waters in CA by analyzing whether and how transboundary harm is addressed in relevant treaties in the selected river basins. The paper finds that in most regional treaties the no-harm principle is phrased as a due diligence obligation, without defining a transboundary harm and specifying its threshold and potential activities that might cause it. In addition to improving the quality of regional agreements and enhancing procedural cooperation, the participation of countries in MEAs can offer a supportive legal framework to specify no-harm related obligations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compound droughts and heatwaves (CDHWs) are likely to cause more severe natural disasters than a single extreme event, and they have been exacerbated by rapid global warming. Based on high-resolution grid data, this study combines the daily-scale ERA5-Land dataset and the monthly-scale SPEI dataset with multiple indicators to analyze CDHWs. We calculated and analyzed the temporal and spatial modal distribution of CDHWs in Central Asia from 1981 to 2018, and in this paper, we discuss the sequence relationship between drought events, heatwave events, and CDHWs. The results show that the number of CDHWs in the study region have increased over time and expanded in terms of area, especially in eastern and southwestern Central Asia. The tsum (total frequency of CDHWs) was 0.5 times higher than the total heatwave frequency and it increased at a rate of 0.17/yr. The maximum duration of tmax (maximum duration of CDHWs in days) was 17 days. Furthermore, the occurrence rate of tmax was 96.67%, and the AH (CDHWs' accumulated heat) had a rate of 97.78%, which, upon examination of the spatial trend pattern, accounted for the largest increase in terms of area. We also found that the TAH (CDHWs' average temperature anomalies, SPEI < −0.5) shows obvious seasonality, with the increases in winter and spring being significantly greater than the increases in summer and autumn. The intensity of the CDHWs was stronger than that of a single extreme event, the temperature anomaly was higher than the average of 0.4–0.8 °C, and there was a north–south spatial pattern across the study region. In eastern and northwestern Central Asia, the AH and heatwaves (SPEI < −0.5) increased by 15–30 times per year on average. During the transition from the base period to the reference period, CDHWs increased by 25%, and the number of dry days prior to the CDHWs decreased by 7.35 days. The conclusion of our study can provide a theoretical basis for coping with climate change in arid zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on water management within the Aral Sea basin. By analyzing a wide range of literature the study reviews the anticipated effect of climate change and hydrological patens on water resources in the region. Providing an overview of the current situations and potential scenarios and solutions in the context of changing hydro-climatic conditions is crucial to efficiently managing the water quality and quantity of the Aral Sea basin. By reviewing existing findings and projections, this paper highlights the urgent need for effective water management strategies, sustainable agriculture practices, and regional cooperation to address the complex challenges posed by changing hydro-climatic conditions in the Aral Sea Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of plants to climate change has become a topical issue. However, there is no consensus on the synergistic processes of the canopy and trunk growth within different vegetation types, or on the consistency of the response of the canopy and trunk to climate change. This paper is based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), tree-ring width index (TRW) and climate data from the Irtysh River basin, a sensitive area for climate change in Central Asia. Spatial statistical methods and correlation analysis were used to analyze the spatial and temporal trends of plants and climate, and to reveal the differences in the canopy and trunk response mechanisms to climate within different vegetation types. The results show a warming and humidifying trend between 1982 and 2015 in the study area, and NDVI and TRW increases in different vegetation type zones. On an interannual scale, temperature is the main driver of the canopy growth in alpine areas and precipitation is the main limiting factor for the canopy growth in lower altitude valley and desert areas. The degree of response of the trunk to climatic factors decreases with increasing altitude, and TRW is significantly correlated with mean annual temperature, precipitation and SPEI in desert areas. On a monthly scale, the earlier and longer growing season due to the accumulation of temperature and precipitation in the early spring and late autumn periods contributes to two highly significant trends of increase in the canopy from March to May and August to October. Climatic conditions during the growing season are the main limiting factor for the growth of the trunk, but there is considerable variation in the driving of the trunk in different vegetation type zones. The canopy growth is mainly influenced by climatic factors in the current month, while there is a 1–2-month lag effect in the response of the trunk to climatic factors. In addition, the synergy between the canopy and the trunk is gradually weakened with increasing altitude (correlation coefficient is 0.371 in alpine areas, 0.413 in valley areas and 0.583 in desert areas). These findings help to enrich the understanding of the response mechanisms to climate change in different vegetation type zones and provide a scientific basis for the development of climate change response measures in Central Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The object of the study reported in this paper is to establish a dependence of the fatty acid composition of the fast-growing annual plant safflower on the agroclimatic cultivating conditions. The growth rate of safflower and the characteristics of the extracted oil are highly dependent on external temperature and moisture. At low temperatures, for example, the growth of safflower is significantly inhibited. With an increase in temperature and the length of daylight, the central stem begins to branch while growing faster. Flowering is mainly affected by the length of daylight. The period from the end of flowering to maturity is typically 28–30 days. However, the total ripening period of the crop depends on the variety, location, sowing time, and agro-climatic cultivating conditions. The need for water increases significantly during the flowering period of safflower, which ultimately affects the indicators of the fatty acid composition and yield. At the same time, safflower is sensitive to moisture in terms of disease. In case of excess water, it is subject to root rot. In addition, frequent rains and high humidity after ripening can provoke the germination of seeds on the head. Hence, it follows that in order to obtain a high yield with the specified characteristics of the fatty acid composition of safflower oil, it is necessary to take into consideration the quantitative indicators of moisture and its seasonality, as well as the temperature regime during the growing season. The study was conducted using arid or semiarid, sharply continental Central Asia with its hot summers and cold winters as an example. The dependence of the physicochemical parameters of plant-derived oils on agroclimatic indicators has been established. The reported results and conclusions will allow farmers to predict the yield of oilseeds with specified characteristics depending on the changing climatic parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of global warming, the melting of glaciers in the Tien Shan Mountains as the important "solid reservoir" in the arid area of Central Asia is accelerating in recent decades, leading to profound changes in regional water resources. Based on the simulated glaciological data from the Python Glacier Evolution Model (PyGEM) and the measured glaciological data from the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS), this paper analyzed the applicability of simulated data, the changes in glacier mass balance, and the responses of the glacier to climate change and its impacts on glacier runoff in the Tien Shan Mountains. The results show that (1) the PyGEM simulation dataset is in good agreement with the measurements, which can effectively reproduce the change in the glacier mass balance in the Tien Shan Mountains glaciers and is suitable for studying the regional scale glacier change. (2) From 1980 to 2016, the decadal average mass balance change rate of glaciers in the Tien Shan Mountains was −0.012 m w.e. yr−1. The regional mass balance showed an overall negative increasing trend (the area with increasingly negative accounted for 80.13% of the entire area), with a positive increase that only occurred in the West Tien Shan Mountains and western North Tien Shan Mountains (19.87%). (3) The correlation between the temperature and mass balance is much higher than that between the precipitation and mass balance. Temperature dominates the change and development of regional glaciers. The increase in negative glacier mass balance that was observed in the study area is mainly affected by the rising temperature, the decreasing solid precipitation in the accumulation period, and the rapid melting in the ablation period. (4) The glacier runoff in the six representative rivers showed an increasing trend. The contribution rate of glacier runoff to river runoff changed significantly after 2000 but differed among rivers. Overall, the larger the glacier area in the source region is, the greater the contribution rate of glacier runoff is, and the more the contribution rate continuously increases or fluctuates; otherwise, the contribution rate keeps declining, which means the runoff peak may have passed and future runoff may decrease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Climate change has altered global hydrological cycles mainly due to changes in temperature and precipitation, which may exacerbate the global and regional water shortage issues, especially in the countries along the Belt and Road (B&R). Methods: In this paper, we assessed water supply, demand, and stress under three climate change scenarios in the major countries along the Belt and Road. We ensembled ten Global Climate Model (GCM) runoff data and downscaled it to a finer resolution of 0.1 × 0.1 by the random forest model. Results: Our results showed that the GCM runoff was highly correlated with the FAO renewable water resources and thus could be used to estimate water supply. Climate change would increase water supply by 4.85%, 5.18%, 8.16% and water demand by 1.45%, 1.68%, 2.36% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios by 2050s, respectively. As a result, climate change will, in general, have little impact on water stress in the B&R countries as a whole. However, climate change will make future water resources more unevenly distributed among the B&R countries and regions, exacerbating water stress in some countries, especially in Central Asia and West Asia. Our results are informative for water resource managers and policymakers in the B&R countries to make sustainable water management strategies under future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation is an urgent and critical way to cope with the impact of climate change. The Paris Agreement has noted that adaptation is a key component of the global response to climate change. Nations with lower incomes and greater vulnerability to climate change have and will continue to suffer from the potential or actual impacts of climate change due to their limited and fragmented adaptation. Here, we consider Central Asia as a case study due to its increasing temperature, increasing rainfall variability, worsening drought, rapid institutional changes after independence, and uneven economic investment in adaptation. This paper identifies five urgent fields (including the theoretical basis, technology and measure, law and regulation, funding, and the political system) and analyzes the gap between ideal and real adaptation, finds the direction for future adaptation, and provides adaptation strategies for similar nations by using CiteSpace, which is based on the Web of Science Core Collection from 1990 to 2019. The detailed strategies present four mainstream development directions: (1) improve the theoretical basis of adaptation and increase investment in research; (2) encourage research and development into targeted approaches of adaptation and acquire technology transfer from developed countries; (3) integrate adaptation into medium- and long-term plans for national sustainable development, widely involving non-government agencies in the process; and (4) obtain financial support from international organizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Due to its extension, geography and the presence of several underdeveloped or developing economies, the Central Asia domain of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) is one of the most vulnerable regions on Earth to the effects of climate changes. Reliable information on potential future changes with high spatial resolution acquire significant importance for the development of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies for the region. In this context, regional climate models (RCMs) play a fundamental role. In this paper, the results of a set of sensitivity experiments with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM version 5.0, for the Central Asia CORDEX domain, are presented. Starting from a reference model setup, general model performance is evaluated for the present day, testing the effects of singular changes in the model physical configuration and their mutual interaction with the simulation of monthly and seasonal values of three variables that are important for impact studies: near-surface temperature, precipitation and diurnal temperature range. The final goal of this study is two-fold: having a general overview of model performance and its uncertainties for the considered region and determining at the same time an optimal model configuration. Results show that the model presents remarkable deficiencies over different areas of the domain. The combined change of the albedo, taking into consideration the ratio of forest fractions, and the soil conductivity, taking into account the ratio of liquid water and ice in the soil, allows one to achieve the best improvements in model performance in terms of climatological means. Importantly, the model seems to be particularly sensitive to those parameterizations that deal with soil and surface features, and that could positively affect the repartition of incoming radiation. The analyses also show that improvements in model performance are not achievable for all domain subregions and variables, and they are the result of a compensation effect in the different cases. The proposed better performing configuration in terms of mean climate leads to similar positive improvements when considering different observational data sets and boundary data employed to force the simulations. On the other hand, due to the large uncertainties in the variability estimates from observations, the use of different boundaries and the model internal variability, it has not been possible to rank the different simulations according to their representation of the monthly variability. This work is the first ever sensitivity study of an RCM for the CORDEX Central Asia domain and its results are of fundamental importance for further model development and for future climate projections over the area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Endorheic lakes, lacking river outflows, are highly sensitive to environmental changes and human interventions. Central Asia (CA) has over 6000 lakes that have experienced substantial water level variability in the past century, yet causes of recent changes in many lakes remain unexplored. Modelling hydrological processes for CA lakes poses challenges in separating climatic change impacts from human management impacts due to limited data and long-term variability in hydrological regimes. This study developed a spatially lumped empirical model to investigate the effects of climate change and human water abstraction, using Shortandy Lake in Burabay National Nature Park (BNNP) as a case study. Modelling results show a significant water volume decline from 231.7x106m3 in 1986 to 172.5x106m3 in 2016, primarily driven by anthropogenic water abstraction, accounting for 92% of the total volume deficit. The highest rates of water abstraction (greater than 25% of annual outflow) occurred from 1989 to 1993, coinciding with the driest period. Since 2013, the water volume has increased due to increased precipitation and, more importantly, reduced water abstraction. Despite limited observational data with which to calibrate the model, it performs well. Our analysis underscores the challenges in modelling lakes in data-sparse regions such as CA, and highlights the importance and benefits of developing lake water balance models for the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glaciers are critical water reservoirs in Central Asia, and their retreat has been the subject of scientific inquiry and regional water policy discourse in recent years. In the case of Kyrgyzstan, the total glaciated area has decreased approximately 25-35 % over the past 100 years-a statistic that has raised serious national security and economic development concerns. Scant research has addressed the topic of deglaciation from the perspective of local populations living in close proximity to glaciers. This paper reports on an effort to document local perceptions of, and relationships to, glaciers in the unique physical and socio-cultural context of the At-Bashy Range of Kyrgyzstan's Tien Shan Mountains. The analysis draws upon data collected over an 11 month period through interviews with Kyrgyz herders, focus group interviews with diverse community members, and extensive field observations and interactions in high-elevation pastures and sub-basins. The analysis suggests that interview participants are unanimous in recognizing the economic, cultural, and symbolic roles of glaciers and mountain environments in sustaining semi-nomadic, livestock-based livelihood systems. Nevertheless, wide ranging and often contradictory opinions emerged about glacial retreat-related vulnerabilities and impacts. Further, extant and pressing political, economic and institutional challenges influence and mediate the extent to which glacial retreat is perceived and assessed as a local priority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The robust carbon storage (CS) capacity of terrestrial ecosystems is crucial in mitigating climate change and holds indispensable significance for global sustainable development. The diverse topography of Central Asia (CA), comprising oases, grasslands, forests, deserts, and glaciers, has fostered industries like animal husbandry, irrigation agriculture, and mining. However, the fragile arid ecosystems of CA render it highly sensitive to climate change and human activities, with their impact on the sustainable development of multifunctional landscapes in this region remaining ambiguous in the future. This study linked land use changes with multiple socio-economic and ecological indicators to predict the dynamics of land use and changes in CS in CA. The findings reveal a significant spatial heterogeneity in CS, with considerable variations among five countries driven by differences in landscape composition. Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, characterized by grasslands, demonstrate higher CS per unit area, whereas Turkmenistan, dominated by barren land, exhibits the lowest CS per unit area. Strategies involving innovative development and improved biodiversity conservation have proven effective in augmenting CS. Meanwhile, high economic and population growth stimulates the expansion of cropland and urban land, reducing the CS capacity of ecosystems. This study contributes to a more precise assessment of CS dynamics in CA. Furthermore, by elucidating the interrelationships between future socio-economic development and environmental conservation in CA, it offers solutions for enhancing the conservation of multifunctional landscapes in CA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central Asia (CA) is one of the world's most significant arid regions, which is markedly impacted by global warming. A better understanding of the dynamical processes governing its Holocene climate variability is critical for a better understanding of possible future impacts of climate change in the region. To date, most of the existing CA paleoclimate records are from the summer precipitation-dominated eastern CA (ECA), with few records from the winter precipitation-dominated western CA (WCA). Here, we present a precisely dated (~6‰) and highly resolved (<4-y) record of hydroclimatic variations from the WCA covering the period between 7,774 and 656 y BP. Utilizing multiple proxies (δ18O, δ13C, and Sr/Ca) derived from a stalagmite from the Fergana Valley, Kyrgyzstan, we reveal a long-term drying trend in WCA, which is in contrast with the wetting trend in ECA. We propose that different responses of winter and summer westerly jets to seasonal solar insolation over the past 8,000 y may have resulted in an antiphased precipitation relationship between the WCA and ECA. Our data contain dominant quasiperiodicities of 1,400, 50 to 70, and 20 to 30 y, indicating close connections between the WCA climate and the North Atlantic. We further identified a series of droughts and pluvials on centennial-to-decadal timescales, which may have influenced regional societies and trans-Eurasian culture exchanges during historical and prehistorical times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central Asia is among the most heavily affected regions worldwide by climate change and water shortages. Impacts include changes in precipitation patterns, more frequent temperature extremes and increased aridity causing a negative impact on agricultural production, food availability, and environmental security. To combat this threat, it is important to enhance information literacy among all water users. This can be done through awareness campaigns, blended learning by providing the proper Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) programs and utilizing all available facilities. This will address relevant issues, such as miscommunication, complexities of transboundary water sharing issues, overexploitation of water resources, and poor flood-drought mitigation techniques. Proper and user-friendly lifelong blended learning for scientific information dissemination focusing water issues can provide stronger support to increase awareness among water users and decision policy makers. Worldwide, especially in North America and Australia, information literacy campaigns have proven successful. This strategy can be replicated in the Mountainous Kyrgyz-Kazakh Chu-Talas transboundary river basin. The issues concerning the Mountainous KyrgyzKazakh Chu-Talas transboundary river basin is elaborated and compared with Australian, Canadian, and US river basin management programs. The foresight analysis is presented, as to what would be a rationale to improve water resources more sustainably in Central Asia. Methodologies, programs, technologies, communities-based river basin committees, snow-water collection with agroforestry, and basin-based water market opportunities were analyzed to assess potential applications in Central Asia region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rivers in arid regions serve as crucial freshwater resources for local communities and play an essential role in global hydrological and biogeochemical cycles. The Aral Sea Basin (ASB) in Central Asia is characterized by an arid climate and river dynamics that are sensitive to climate change and human activities. Monitoring the spatiotemporal variations in river water extent in the ASB is essential to maintain an ecological balance and ensure water security. In this study, we extracted data regarding monthly river water bodies in the ASB from 2017 to 2022 by synthesizing monthly Sentinel-2 images. The water extents on the Sentinel images were automatically mapped using the Otsu method, and the river widths for all river channels were calculated using the RivWidth algorithm. We investigated the relationships between the river dynamics and the geomorphology, climatic change, human activities, and the annual and interannual variations in the river width in different reaches of the basin. The results show a seasonal variability in the river width, with most rivers reaching the largest width in the warm season and a few rivers in the middle and lower areas reaching the valley value in the warm season. Compared to their tributaries, the mainstem in the middle/lower regions showed less seasonal variability. According to interannual analysis, most of the rivers in the ASB significantly narrowed between 2017 and 2022, a phenomenon which is generally impacted by temperature and evapotranspiration variations. Comparisons show that our results provide improved information about the narrow river reaches and denser river networks compared to the previous global dataset, demonstrating the advantageous properties of high spatial resolution in Sentinel-2 imagery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses various challenges for agriculture and water management practices in Central Asia (CA). Central to these challenges are cryosphere dynamics, fragile mountain ecosystems, and ongoing natural hazards that highlight the need for robust projections of regional climate change. For the first time, dynamic downscaling was conducted in Central Asia at a spatial resolution of 5 km. This produced a regional dataset that incorporated periods between 1980 and 2000 and 2076 to 2096. Results show that dynamic downscaling significantly improves the simulation of temperature and precipitation across CA compared to General Circulation Models (GCMs) and other Regional Climate Models (RCMs) due to better representation of topography and related meteorological fields. Our analysis shows that there will be a significant warming trend in Central Asia with a projected increase of 6°C under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario SSP5-8.5 from 2076 to 2096. Pronounced warming is detected over mountainous areas of CA from autumn to spring, which can be explained by the snow-albedo feedback. Precipitation increases are projected from winter to spring and decreases are projected from summer to autumn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large parts of Central Asia are characterized by a semiarid to arid climate. Therefore, areas close to shallow groundwater, rivers and lakes are characterized by unique water-dependent ecosystems and human societies which have developed over millennia in close interaction with the naturally limited water resources. In the early 21st century, global climate change, population growth, river damming, large-scale water abstractions and rising levels of pollution exert multiple pressures on the region's water resources, aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems at historically high levels. Water scarcity threatens the livelihood of populations locally and in transboundary settings by a growing competition over a limited resource. This context is of particular importance since all major rivers of the region cross at least one international border. The complexity and character of water-related challenges in the region mean that management approaches need to be integrative, taking into account the natural resource basis, environmental limits and the socio-cultural and geopolitical dimension. This paper frames the thematic issue of Environmental Earth Sciences and provides a comprehensive overview about the current state of knowledge about water resources and their management in Central Asia. There is a focus on case studies looking at the Selenga-Baikal-Angara Basin, the Lake Aral Basin including the Syr Darya and Amu Darya river systems, the Tarim and the Illi River Basins. Aiming to be an up-to-date interdisciplinary scientific reference on the region's water-related challenges, this thematic issue gives theoretical and practical insights into solutions and best practice examples of water management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Past climatic oscillations are the main driving force of evolutionary changes in alpine species. Species' response to paleoclimatic oscillations is crucial in forecasting their future response in face of climate warming. The aim of this research is to explore the effect of climatic fluctuations on the evolutionary history, demography, and distribution of high‐mountain bellflowers (Campanula lehmanniana complex), the flagship and taxonomically problematic members of chasmophytic vegetation within an underexplored biodiversity hotspot, the Mountains of Central Asia. Location: Central Asia (Tian Shan, Alai and Zeravshan‐Hissar Mountains). Methods: We used molecular data (ITS, cpDNA, DArTseq‐based SNPs) of 262 individuals (70 for the phylogeny reconstruction, and 247 from 31 localities for population studies). We analysed the data using phylogenetic and molecular clock reconstructions, coalescent simulations, and ecological niche modelling. Results: Tertiary isolation between the Tian‐Shanian and Pamir‐Alaian populations led to the differentiation of the two main lineages (~5–6 Mya) corresponding to C. eugeniae and C. lehmanniana, whereas further Quaternary isolation into subregions led to intraspecific genetic differentiation, which starts almost simultaneously for both species (~2.7–1.5 Mya). The relatively small genetic admixture among populations indicates rare historic events of connectivity. In response to Holocene warming, the analysed species experienced a substantial decline in effective population size. Currently, the distribution of both taxa is highly influenced by precipitation in the coldest and driest quarters. Main Conclusions: Our results highlight a general principle that glacial–interglacial cycles and contemporary island‐like habitats distribution, shape the genomic variation of high‐mountain species. The similar declining demographic trend of examined taxa may suggest the overall response to ongoing climate warming. The results underline also the urgent need for conservation action in alpine regions to preserve their biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of global warming, the strength and frequency of drought events are projected to grow in the future, and the onset of drought can have dramatic effects on vegetation growth in terrestrial ecosystems. Central Asia is the largest non-territorial drought area in the world, and the response of vegetation to drought events is extremely sensitive in the area. However, few studies have quantified and compared the vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP) response to the lagged and cumulative effects of drought. In this research, the solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence GPP and Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) were used to analyze the time and space patterns of vegetation GPP and the SPEI in Central Asia and to quantify and compare the lagged and cumulative effects of drought on the GPP of various vegetation types. During the period from 2000 to 2018, the general trends of vegetation GPP showed a slight increase in Central Asia, with the ratio of variation being 1.35 g C m−2 y−1 and a spatially decreasing distribution from north to south. SPEI showed a trend of decreasing and then increasing over a period of 19 years, with a slight decreasing (drying) trend and a rate of change of −0.02 y−1, and the overall spatial pattern was drying out from north to south. In 13 months, 72.44% of regional droughts had lagged impacts on vegetation. The maximum correlation coefficients of vegetation and the lagged effectiveness of drought were concentrated in the range of 0.15–0.35, and the high correlation was distributed in southern and northwestern Kazakhstan, which are prairie regions. Of the regions in Central Asia, 75.86% showed cumulative drought effects concentrated at 9–12 months. The maximum correlation coefficients were concentrated in the range of 0.20–0.50, and the high correlation regions were primarily situated in south Kazakhstan and east Uzbekistan. Comparing the correlation coefficients of the lagged effect of vegetation GPP and SPEI with the cumulative effect shows that the cumulative rather than lagged impacts of drought on vegetation cover were found in 86.75% of the regions in Central Asia. This research enhances our comprehension of the influence of drought events on ecosystems in arid regions and has a certain reference value for helping arid region ecosystems to cope with global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to climate changes, most of the alpine glaciers have retreated dramatically during the past decades. Thus it is significant to predict the alpine glacier variability in the future for a better understanding of the impact of climate changes on water resource. In this paper, we perform the numerical simulation on Urumqi Glacier No.1 in the eastern Tianshan, central Asia (hereafter Glacier No.1 for short) by considering both the mass balance and ice flow. Given the shape of the Glacier No.1, the velocity of the glacier is obtained by solving a two-dimensional nonlinear Stokes equation and simulated result is in agreement with the observation. In order to predict the variability of Glacier No.1 in the next decades, a climatic scenario is constructed with a temperature rise rate as 0.17°C/10 a and precipitation as constant during the period of 2005-2070. The simulation shows that, the glacier terminus will retreat slowly and the glacier will thin dramatically before 2040, while after year 2040, the glacier terminus retreat will accelerate. This study confirms the increasing retreat rate of alpine glaciers under global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As reported in previous studies, global warming has caused a clear uptick in dryland areas since the 1950s. Meanwhile, the accelerated expansion of drylands has become particularly evident over the past 40 years, with dry/wet patterns showing significant differences prior to and after 1980. This paper uses the Precipitation/Potential evaporation (P/PET) index to analyze changes occurring in the dry/wet structure of various spatial and temporal scales during 1948–2008. The results show the emergence of complex aridity changes on a regional scale. While aridity generally decreased in the drylands of Asia during 1948–2008, the change in aridity was opposite in the drylands of the American and African continents between 1948 and 1979 and 1980–2008. Specifically, drylands in the American continent showed a wetting tendency during 1948–1979 and a drying tendency during 1980–2008, whereas drylands in the African continent underwent significant drying during 1948–1979 followed by subtle wetting in 1980–2008. Even though rapid warming since the 1980s has become an increasingly important cause of the recent global drying trend, especially in East and Central Asia, the changes in aridity in the American and African drylands is attributable to natural variabilities in precipitation associated with multi-decadal surface sea temperature changes, along with large-scale circulation patterns. • Dry/wet patterns in dryland areas show significant differences in the decades prior to and after 1980. • The change in aridity was opposite in American and African drylands between 1948–1979 and 1980–2008. • Aridity changes in American and African drylands are closely related to multi-decadal changes in surface sea temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A spate of archaeological, historical and scientific publications have recently argued that the dust veil from a volcanic eruption (or series of eruptions) caused climatic change, which 'forced' significant historical transformations in the middle of the sixth century AD. In this paper, I situate this phenomenon within a more general return to environmental determinism in archaeological explanation, a return which itself needs to be understood in the context both of contemporary fears about the devastation to be unleashed by the climatic change we have made, and of the rise of precise measurement in environmental and archaeological science. I do not doubt the reality of the climatic change reconstructed for AD536/546 but, given the coarseness of the dating of the historical transformations, I do question the causal connections drawn between the former and the latter. I suggest that for many archaeologists, the AD536 event (and similar phenomena) functions much as written texts once did – as both the framework for analysis and as the explanation of historical process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - This paper aims to demonstrate the importance of taking into account precipitation and the vegetation response to it when trying to analyse changes of vegetation cover in drylands with high inter-annual rainfall variability. Design/methodology/approach - Linear regression models were used to determine trends in NDVI and precipitation and their interrelations for each pixel. Trends in NDVI that were entirely supported by precipitation trends were considered to impose climate-induced vegetation change. Trends in NDVI that were not explained by trends in precipitation were considered to mark human-induced vegetation change. Modelling results were validated by test of statistical significance and by comparison with the data from higher resolution satellites and fieldtrips to key test sites. Findings - More than 26 percent of all vegetated area in Central Asia experienced significant changes during 1981-2000. Rainfall has been proved to enforce most of these changes (21 percent of the entire vegetated area). The trends in vegetation activity driven by anthropogenic factor are much scarcer and occupy about 5.75 percent of the studied area. Practical implications - Planners, decision makers and other interest groups can use the findings of the study for assessment and monitoring land performance/land degradation over dry regions. Originality/value - The study demonstrates the importance of taking into account precipitation and the vegetation response to it when trying to analyse changes of vegetation cover in drylands with high inter-annual rainfall variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper seeks to explore the normativeness of the EU by judging its capacity of creating desirable outcomes through its foreign-policy implementation process. From the 1990s on, the EU has become more visible in global politics as a unique, non-traditional actor using its norms and values as a deliberative force. Nevertheless, its conflict-management patterns, conduct of foreign affairs beyond its neighbourhood, participation in the sustainable-development efforts, fight against the climate change, and attitude towards the global financial crisis have all displayed that the EU is, in fact, not at ease in creating desirable outcomes subsequent to its foreign-policy actions. The failure of the Annan Plan in Cyprus is one of the quintessential examples of the EU's consequence-challenged foreign politics. This paper intends to probe the Cyprus question from the perspective of the EU's normative leadership. Georgia, Central Asia, the Doha Round, climate change, and the global financial crisis are among the topics that will be enquired into here in a similar light. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has significantly influenced water resource patterns in arid regions. Applying effective water-saving measures to improve irrigation efficiency and evaluate their future water-saving capabilities is crucial for ensuring the sustainable development of irrigation agriculture. Based on the daily meteorological data from 15 global climate models (GCMs) in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), this study used the AquaCrop model to perform high-resolution (0.1° × 0.1°) grid simulations of cotton yields and irrigation requirements. The study also investigated the ability of film-mulched drip irrigation (FMDI) to improve future irrigation efficiency under two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) in the Tarim River Basin (TRB), Central Asia, from 2025 to 2100. The results showed that the cotton yield and irrigation water productivity (WPI) in the TRB exhibited an upward trend of 13.82 kg/ha/decade (80.68 kg/ha/decade) and 0.015 kg/m3/decade (0.068 kg/m3/decade), respectively, during the study period. The cotton yield and WPI were higher in the northern, northwestern plains, and northeastern intermountain basin areas, where they reach over 4000 kg/ha and 0.8 kg/m3/decade. However, the cotton yield and WPI were lower in the southwestern part of the study area. Therefore, large-scale cotton production was not recommended there. Furthermore, compared to flood irrigation, the use of FMDI can, on average, improve the WPI by approx. 25% and reduce irrigation water requirements by more than 550 m3/ha. Therefore, using FMDI can save a substantial amount of irrigation water in cotton production, which is beneficial for improving irrigation efficiency and ensuring the future stable production of cotton in the TRB. The research results provide a scientific reference for the efficient utilization and management of water resources for cotton production in the TRB and in similar arid regions elsewhere in the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central Asia is a drought-prone region that is sensitive to global climate change. The increased actual evapotranspiration intensifies the drought impacts in this area. However, little is known about the similarities and differences between various types of drought in Central Asia, as well as the relative importance of water income and consumption processes during drought events. Therefore, this study evaluates the trends and characteristics of meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts in Central Asia using precipitation, soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage as indicators; explores the temporal correlation of and spatial similarity between various types of drought; and quantitatively assesses the contribution of water balance variables to drought intensity. The results indicate that drought has intensified in Central Asia, and the trends of precipitation, soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage in this region were −0.75 mm·yr−1 (p = 0.36), −0.0003 m3·m−3 yr−1 (p < 0.01), and −0.3742 cm·yr−1 (p < 0.001), respectively. Severe droughts are typically short in duration and high in intensity. Three various types of drought have low temporal correlation and spatial similarity. Furthermore, agricultural and hydrological droughts were primarily driven by actual evapotranspiration, accounting for relative contributions of 64.38% and 51.04% to these drought types, respectively. Moreover, the extent of increased actual evapotranspiration expanded to cover 49.88% of the region, exacerbating agricultural and hydrological droughts in 23.88% and 35.14% of the total study area, respectively. The study findings demonstrate that actual evapotranspiration plays a critical role in causing droughts. This study establishes a theoretical foundation to carry out drought assessment, the construction of multivariate drought indices, and water resource management in Central Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study develops a convolutional recurrent deep learning model to accurately predict fine‐resolution spatiotemporal changes in grass coverage in arid regions. Applying the model to the Gobi Desert reveals that ecological flow regulation contributes to 61.8% of the total increase in grass cover (130.6 km2) in the study area (40,423 km2) over 2005–2015, nearly triple the contribution of local climate change (+23.0%). The transboundary hydrological impact (+32.4%) and interactions between drivers (−17.2%) are also significant. In an intermediate future climate change scenario, we found no statistically significant trend for the total grass‐covered area due to the counteracting effects among different drivers. The study findings suggest that timely, adaptive and spatially heterogeneous ecological flow management is crucial for addressing grassland degradation in arid regions. This study provides a promising approach to land surface modeling under climate change and human disturbance and expands the existing understanding of the global greening process. Plain Language Summary: The Earth's recent greening (i.e., vegetation increase) has boosted the terrestrial carbon sink, intensified the hydrologic cycle, and contributed to mitigating global warming. CO2 fertilization has been identified as the primary cause at the global scale, while climate change, land use changes, and nitrogen deposition also contribute. However, there are still many gaps in our understanding of how grasslands in arid areas are being affected. Studies in Central Asia identified precipitation as the dominant factor affecting grassland change and grazing as the main influence from humans. Based on satellite data, we employ a novel deep learning (DL) approach to emulate spatiotemporal changes in grass coverage at a 1‐km resolution over an area of 40,423 km2 in the Gobi Desert in northwestern China. Our study identified previously overlooked mechanisms contributing to the increase in grass coverage, including ecological flow management and transboundary hydrological impact. Ecological flow management was found to be responsible for almost three times the increase in grass coverage over 2005–2015 than that of local climate changes. Our findings suggest that timely, adaptive, and spatially targeted ecological flow management is urgently needed to prevent further grassland degradation in arid regions, and DL‐based artificial intelligence can offer valuable management suggestions. Key Points: Deep learning (DL) precisely emulates spatiotemporal changes in grass coverage at a 1‐km resolution over an area of 40,423 km2DL interprets ecological flow regulation (EFR) as the leading cause of grassland greening in the Gobi DesertTimely, adaptive and spatially heterogeneous ecological flow management is desired to prevent grassland degradation in arid regions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Addressing food security in high mountains is a multidimensional conundrum because of complex climate patterns and environmental attributes. These conditions affect water supplies, biodiversity, droughts, and other hazards. The climate change–land degradation nexus, although it is difficult to disentangle, poses formidable challenges. Isolated mountain villages, coupled with poverty, a strained subsistence existence, conflict, and marginal lands make the residents vulnerable to malnutrition, stunting, and food access. Because the arable land is mostly in confined valleys, food production is insufficient. The soils are typically infertile, with little organic matter; on hillslopes, thin soil and rock cover, coupled with short growing seasons, restrict crop production. High-elevation pastures are overgrazed, and the natural hazard impacts on food security are often overlooked. We examine food security through these multifaceted stressors, instead of merely focusing on production and distribution, and present an integrated approach to assess natural and anthropogenic stressors and feedback loops affecting food security linked to planning, mitigation, and coping strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the climatically suitable habitat of species plays a vital role in the sustainable use and management of target species. Calligonum mongolicum Turcz., a native shrub species found in desert areas of Central Asia, is generally considered as one of the top four tree species for desertification control. However, previous works on suitable habitat simulation had focused mainly on either the national or specific geographical scales rather than entire biota scales, which have underestimated the climatic tolerance of the species. Furthermore, the uncertainty outcomes of climate change were largely ignored. With these questions, the arid regions of Central Asia were selected as our research background area. Occurrence data of C. mongolicum were obtained from various sources, such as the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, the Chinese Virtual Herbarium, and the iPlant website. The maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to simulate the suitable habitat change dynamics under various climate change scenarios [5 general circulation models (GCMs) × 3 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)]. The uncertainty of climate change induced by GCMs and SSPs were decomposed by the two-way ANOVA method. Our results show that hydrological-related variables are more important for the species' habitat suitability than thermal-related variables. The climatic threshold for the core suitable habitat was 1–30 mm for precipitation of the coldest quarter, 14–401 mm for annual precipitation, −16.01–12.42 °C for mean temperature of the driest quarter, 9.48–32.63 °C for mean temperature of the wettest quarter, and −25.01–−9.77 °C for the minimum temperature of the coldest month. The size of suitable habitat was about 287.4 × 104 km2 under the current climate condition, located in China and Mongolia. Climate change has less impact on the total area size, but it has bigger impacts on the gain area and loss area sizes. The loss area is mainly located in the southeast boundaries, whereas the gain area is mainly located in Mongolia and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The decomposition uncertainty of climate change indicates that GCMs could explain 14.5%, 66.4%, and 97.0% of total variation, respectively, and SSPs could explain 85.5%, 33.6%, and 3.0% of the total variation for gain, loss, and total habitat sizes, respectively. Our work clearly demonstrates that while C. mongolicum has great planting potential in Central Asia under various climate change scenarios, the sensitive areas possess large uncertainties requiring long-term climate monitoring for afforestation projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This special issue of GeoHealth, entitled Rhythms of the Earth: Ecological Calendars and Anticipating the Anthropogenic Climate Crisis, is a transdisciplinary articulation of a methodology of hope to confront the multiple injustices of the Anthropocene. One of the greatest challenges of the climate crisis is the lack of predictability at the scale of communities where impacts are most immediate. Indigenous and rural societies face an ever shifting "new normal" through increasing inconsistency in the seasonality of temperature and precipitation, as well as greater frequency of extreme weather events. With global food systems dependent on local and small producers, climatic variability disrupts access to affordable, nutritious, and culturally relevant food. Ecological calendars are context‐specific knowledge systems grounded in a particular cultural milieu and ecological space, that build anticipatory capacity for seasonal change. They measure and give meaning to time. Based on close observation of one's habitat, human societies have used such calendars for hundreds of years and potentially millennia. By engaging with the interactions among physical phenomena (such as the first snowfall or last frost) and biological events (such as blossoming of specific trees, arrival of migratory birds or mammals, appearance of plants or insects), human societies have been able to identify optimal time windows for their livelihood activities. The 11 research articles in Rhythms of the Earth cover a considerable geographical breadth from Africa to the Arctic; and, from North and South America to Central Asia. They provide evidence that spans millennia from the Roman Empire to the contemporary Anthropocene. Key Points: Rhythms of the Earth is a transdisciplinary collaboration between Indigenous Knowledge and ScienceIn Rhythms of the Earth , an innovative culturally and ecologically grounded way to anticipate seasonal change is proposedSignificant diversity of thought from around the world is engaged in Rhythms of the Earth because the research articles are co‐authored by artists, Indigenous community members, and scholars in the biological, physical, and social sciences as well as the humanities [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We have investigated the drivers behind the observed spatiotemporal mass balance heterogeneity in Tien Shan and Pamir, in High Mountain Asia. To study the consistency of the different interpretations derived from the available meteorological reanalysis and remote sensing products, we used correlation analyses between climatic and static drivers with novel estimates of region-wide annual glacier mass balance time series. These analyses were performed both spatially using different spatial classifications of glaciers and temporally for each individual glacier. Our results show that the importance of the variables studied depends strongly on the dataset used and which spatial classification of glaciers is chosen. This extends to opposing results using the different products. Even supposedly similar datasets lead to different and partly contradicting assumptions on dominant drivers of mass balance variability. The apparent but false consistencies across studies using a single dataset are related, according to our results, to the chosen dataset or spatial classification rather than to the processes or involved environmental variables. Without a glaciological, meteorological, and hydrological in situ observation network providing data that allow for the direct calibration and validation of extensive datasets, our understanding of neither the changing cryosphere at the regional scale for Tien Shan and Pamir nor glacier response to climate change or the assessment of water availability for the region's growing population can improve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evapotranspiration (ET) affects the dry and wet conditions of a region, particularly in arid Central Asia, where changes in evapotranspiration profoundly influence society, the economy, and ecosystems. However, the changing trends in and driving factors of evapotranspiration in Central Asia remain unclear. Therefore, we used estimated ET and reanalysis data to answer research questions. Our results showed that (1) potential evapotranspiration (PET) and ET showed a generally downward trend, in which PET and ET decreased in 37.93% and 17.42% of the total area, respectively. However, PET and ET showed opposite trends in 59.41% of the study area, mainly showing a decrease in PET and an increase in ET. (2) The absolute contribution rates of vegetation–human activity coupling factor (VH), PET, and precipitation (P) to ET were 43.19%, 40.02%, and 16.79%, respectively, and the VH was the main determiner of ET. (3) Transpiration (ETc) dominated the change in ET in 56.4% of the region, whereas soil evaporation (ETs) dominated the change in ET in the rest of the region. The coverage threshold that determines the dominant contributions of ETc and ETs to ET was approximately 18–19%. Below this coverage threshold, the contribution rate of ETs to ET exceeded that of ETc and vice versa. In the context of global climate change, this study can provide scientific support for the restoration of water resources and sustainability evaluation of water resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the years ensuring water securitisation in Central Asia is assuming geopolitical dimensions. Historical experiences, the rapid industrialisation and diversification of agricultural practices along with the pattern of water distribution in the Central Asian space rooted in historical trajectories to a greater extent are some of the factors contributing to the dynamics of water insecurity in Central Asia. It needs to be underlined here that though Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan constitute the upstream countries but their dependence on gas from Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to a greater extent limits the "hydro-hegemony" model. However, the same model can be applied in the context of China–Kazakhstan water dispute over sharing the river Ili. At the same time, what one witnessed over some time is the proliferation of identity-based primordial conflict largely accentuated due to sharing of scarce water resources. This is aptly visible in the Ferghana region of Central Asia where three Central Asian countries—Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan—share a common border along with water bodies also. The existence of the contested geopolitical space, climate change, competition over scarce resources like water and its impact on human security are some of the factors responsible for aggravating the insecurity of Central Asia. In this regard, the existing regional mechanisms also need to be strengthened which to a substantial extent address the issue of the water crisis in a more holistic manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]