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Entered into force in 2011, the Protocol on Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) in the Mediterranean is a major innovation in that it is the first supra-State legal instrument aimed at coastal zone management. However, the nature and magnitude of change it is actually generating, or is likely to generate, in domestic coastal zones management systems, are highly uncertain. Investigating such prospects for change in contrasted contexts around the Mediterranean, and therefore providing a critical view of the Protocol as a game-changer, is the aim of this article. Results call for vigilance: the risk is real that the Protocol will not change much and that it will become a paper-protocol only. Ratifying it is – relatively – easy. Avoiding “ratifications of convenience” is more demanding. For various reasons the Protocol is likely to have mostly limited impacts on domestic coastal law development. It probably has more potential in terms of influencing changes in governance processes and increasing the social demand for ICZM. But this potential may only be translated into facts under stringent conditions on political will and good faith from Parties to adopt an ambitious understanding of the Protocol, and on appropriation by civil societies around the Mediterranean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A widespread increase in forest cover is underway in northern Mediterranean forests because of land abandonment and decreased wood demand, but the resilience of these successional forests to climate change remains unresolved. Here we use 18-year time series of canopy greenness derived from satellite imagery (NDVI) to evaluate the impacts of climate change on Spain's forests. Specifically, we analyzed how NDVI was influenced by the climatic water balance (i.e. Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI), using monthly time-series extracted from 3,100 pixels of forest, categorized into ten forest types. The forests increased in leaf area index by 0.01 per year on average (from 1.7 in 2000 to 1.9 in 2017) but there was enormous variation among years related to climatic water balance. Forest types varied in response to drought events: those dominated by drought-avoiding species showed strong covariance between greenness and SPEI, while those dominated by drought-tolerant species showed weak covariance. Native forests usually recovered more than 80% of greenness within the 18 months and the remainder within 5 years, but plantations of Eucalyptus were less resilient. Management to increase the resilience of forests-a key goal of forestry in the Mediterranean region-appears to have had a positive effect: canopy greenness within protected forests was more resilient to drought than within non-protected forests. In conclusion, many of Spain's successional forests have been resilient to drought over the past 18 years, from the perspective of space. Future studies will need to combine remote sensing with field-based analyses of physiological tolerances and mortality processes to understand how Mediterranean forests will respond to the rapid climate change predicted for this region in the coming decades., (© 2020 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

This study evaluates three different metrics of vegetation water content estimated from proximal sensing and MODIS satellite imagery: Fuel Moisture Content (FMC), Equivalent Water Thickness (EWT) and Canopy Water Content (CWC). Dry matter (Dm) and Leaf area Index (LAI) were also analyzed in order to connect FMC with EWT and EWT with CWC, respectively. This research took place in a Fluxnet site located in Mediterranean wooded grassland (dehesa) ecosystem in Las Majadas del Tietar (Spain). Results indicated that FMC and EWT showed lower spatial variation than CWC. The spatial variation within the MODIS pixel was not as critical as its temporal trend, so to capture better the variability, fewer plots should be sampled but more times. Due to the high seasonal Dm variability, a constant annual value would not work to predict EWT from FMC. Relative root mean square error (RRMSE) evaluated the performance of nine spectral indices to compute each variable. VARI provided the worst results in all cases. For proximal sensing, GEMI worked best for both FMC (RRMSE = 34.5 %) and EWT (RRMSE = 27.43 %) while NDII and GVMI performed best for CWC (RRMSE = 30.27% and 31.58% respectively). For MODIS data, results were a bit better with EVI as the best predictor for FMC (RRMSE = 33.81 %) and CWC (RRMSE = 27.56 %) and GEMI for EWT (RRMSE = 24.6 %). To explain these differences, proximal sensing measures only grasslands at nadir view angle, but MODIS includes also trees, their shades, and other artifacts at up to 20_ view angle. CWC was better predicted than the other two water content variables, probably because CWC depends on LAI, which is highly correlated to the spectral indices. Finally, these empirical methods outperformed FMC and CWC products based on radiative transfer model inversion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies discuss the economic and technical aspects of flood warnings. Less attention has been given to the social and psychological patterns that affect alert services. In particular, the literature focuses on warnings activated in river basins or marine environments without providing clear evidence of relevance to Mediterranean coastal areas, even though these are subjected to growing flood risk related to climate change. This paper is a first attempt to bridge this gap. Our research develops an in- depth analysis of the village of Cesenatico on the Adriatic Sea coast. Here the municipality adopted two complementary warning systems: a siren and an alert via Short Message Service (SMS). The analysis focuses on a survey conducted in 2011 and 2012 with 228 participants. The relationships between social and behavioural variables and warning services are investigated, and so are flood preparedness and information dissemination. Qualitative evidence from informal interviews is used to support the understanding of key responses. The conclusions show how different social and behavioural patterns can influence the effectiveness and use of warning systems, regardless of the technology adopted and the structural mitigation measures implemented. Education, training and accountability are seen to be critical elements for improvement. Finally, the statistical output is used to suggest new questions and new directions for research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatic drivers limit several important physiological processes involved in ecosystem carbon dynamics including gross primary productivity (GPP) and carbon allocation in vegetation. Climatic variability limits these two processes differently. We developed an existing mechanistic model to analyse photosynthesis and variability in carbon allocation in two evergreen species at two Mediterranean forests. The model was calibrated using a combination of eddy covariance CO2 flux data, dendrochronological time series of secondary growth and forest inventory data. The model was modified to be climate explicit in the key processes addressing acclimation of photosynthesis and allocation. It succeeded to fit both the high- and the low-frequency response of stand GPP and carbon allocation to the stem. This would support its capability to address both carbon source and sink limitations. Simulations suggest a decrease in mean stomatal conductance in response to environmental changes and an increase in mean annual intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) in both species during the last 50 years. However, this was not translated on a parallel increase in ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE). A long-term decrease in annual GPP matched the local trend in precipitation since the 1970s observed in one site. In contrast, GPP did not show a negative trend and the trees buffered the climatic variability observed at the site where long-term precipitation remained stable. In our simulations these temporal changes would be partly related to increasing [CO2] because the model includes biochemical equations where photosynthesis is directly linked to [CO2]. Long-term trends in GPP did not match those in growth, in agreement with the C-sink hypothesis. There is a great potential to use the model with abundant dendrochronological data and analyse forest performance under climate change. This would help to understand how different interfering environmental factors produce instability in the climatic signal expressed in tree-rings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fertilizing potential of atmospheric deposition on ocean production in the Mediter- ranean is a matter of debate. In this study, eight years (from 2000 to 2007) of weekly chlorophyll concentration data derived from SeaWiFS satellite observations and dust deposition data provided by the BSC-DREAM8b model are investigated in a basin-wide scale in the Mediterranean Sea to describe the geographical distribution and dynamics of both variables and to find potential relationships between them. In all analyses the largest positive cross correlation values are found with a time lag of 0 8-d periods. The coupling between annual cycles of chlorophyll and dust deposition may on average explain an 11.5% in chlorophyll variation in a large part of the Mediterranean. The Eastern Mediterranean shows the largest annual correlations, while the responsiveness to large events is small. The contrary is true for the Western and Northwestern Mediterranean where, if anything, only large events may add to the chlorophyll variability. The Central Mediterranean shows the highest responsiveness of chlorophyll to mineral dust deposition with annual contributions from seasonal variability as well as stimulations owing to large events. These results highlight the importance of dust deposition from African and Middle East origin in the potential stimulation of phytoplankton production in the nutrient depleted surface layers of the Mediterranean Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate and land use change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect natural and agricultural ecosystems by decreases in precipitation, increases in temperature as well as biodiversity loss and anthropogenic degradation of natural resources. Demographic growth in the Eastern and Southern shores will require increases in food production and put additional pressure on agro-ecosystems and water resources. Coping with these challenges requires informed decisions that, in turn, require assessments by means of a comprehensive agro-ecosystem and hydrological model. This study presents the inclusion of 10 Mediterranean agricultural plants, mainly perennial crops, in an agro-ecosystem model (LPJmL): nut trees, date palms, citrus trees, orchards, olive trees, grapes, cotton, potatoes, vegetables and fodder grasses. The model was successfully tested in three model outputs: agricultural yields, irrigation requirements and soil carbon density. With the development presented in this study, LPJmL is now able to simulate in good detail and mechanistically the functioning of Mediterranean agriculture with a comprehensive representation of ecophysiological processes for all vegetation types (natural and agricultural) and in a consistent framework that produces estimates of carbon, agricultural and hydrological variables for the entire Mediterranean basin. This development pave the way for further model extensions aiming at the representation of alternative agro-ecosystems (e.g. agroforestry), and opens the door for a large number of applications in the Mediterranean region, for example assessments on the consequences of land use transitions, the influence of management practices and climate change impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire weather indices predict fire extent from meteorological conditions assuming a monotonic function; this approach is frequently used to predict future fire patterns under climate change scenarios using linear extrapolation. However, the relationship between weather and fire extent may potentially depend on the existence of fuel humidity thresholds above which this relationship changes dramatically, challenging this statistical approach. Here we combine the continuous and the threshold approaches to analyze satellite-detected fires in Europe during 2001-2010 in relation to meteorological conditions, showing that fire size response to increasing dryness follows a ramp function, i.e. with two plateaus separated by a phase of monotonic increase. This study confirms that at a continental and a high-resolution temporal scales, large fires are very unlikely to occur under moist conditions, but it also reveals that fire size stops to be controlled by fuel humidity above a given threshold of dryness. Thus, fuel humidity control only applies when fire is not limited by other factors such as fuel load, as large fires are virtually absent in dry regions with less than 500mm of average annual rainfall, i.e. where fuel amount is insufficient. In regions with sufficient fuel, other factors such as fire suppression or fuel discontinuity can impede large fires even under very dry weather conditions. These findings are relevant under current climatic trends in which the fire season length, in terms of number of days with DC (drought code) values above the observed thresholds (break points), is increasing in many parts of the Mediterranean, while it is decreasing in Eastern Europe and remains unchanged in Central Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use the process-based VS (Vaganov-Shashkin) model to investigate whether a regional Pinus halapensis tree-ring chronology from Tunisia can be simulated as a function of climate alone by employing a biological model linking day length and daily temperature and precipitation (AD 1959-2004) from a climate station to ring-width variations. We use two periods to calibrate (1982-2004) and verify (1959-1981) the model. We have obtained highly significant positive correlation between the residual chronology and estimated growth curve (r = 0.76 p < 0.001). The model shows that the average duration of the growing season is 191 days. On average, soil moisture limits tree-ring growth for 128 days and temperature for 63 days. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clarifying which factors cause an increase or decrease in soil organic carbon (SOC) after agricultural abandonment requires integration of data on the temporal dynamics of the plant community and SOC. A chronosequence of abandoned vineyards was studied on a volcanic island (Pantelleria, Italy). Vegetation in the abandoned fields was initially dominated by annual and perennial herbs, then by Hyparrhenia hirta (L.) Stapf, and finally by woody communities. As a consequence, the dominant photosynthetic pathway changed from C3 to C4 and then back to C3. Conversion of a plant community dominated by one photosynthetic pathway to an other changes the 13C/12C ratio of inputs to soil organic carbon (SOC). Using the time since abandonment and the shift in belowground δ13C of SOC relative to the aboveground δ13C plant community, we estimated SOC turnover rate. SOC content (g kg-1) increased linearly (R² =0.79 and 0.73 for 0-15 and 15-30cm soil depth) with the age of abandonment, increasing from 12 g kg-1 in cultivated vine yards to as high as 26 g kg-1 in the last stage of the succession. δ13C increased in the bulk soil and its three fractions during succession, but only for soil fractions the effects of soil depth and its interaction with succession age were significant. Polynomial curves described the change in δ13C over the chronosequence for both depths. δ13C in the bulk soil had increased from -28 to -24‰ by 30 yr after abandonment for both depths but then decreased to -26‰ at 60 yr after abandonment corresponding with maturity of the woody plant community). Overall, the results indicate that abandoned vineyards on volcanic soil in a semi-arid environment are C sinks and that C storage in these soils is closely related to plant succession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The overall goal of the BOUM (Biogeochemistry from the Oligotrophic to the Ultraoligotrophic Mediterranean) experiment was to obtain a better representation of the interactions between planktonic organisms and the cycle of biogenic elements in the Mediterranean Sea (MS), in the context of global climate change and, more particularly, on the role of the ocean in carbon sequestration through biological processes. The BOUM experiment was organized around three main objectives which are: (1) to give a longitudinal description of the biogeochemistry and the biological diversity of the MS during the strongest stratified period, (2) to study processes at the centre of three anticyclonic eddies, and (3) to obtain a representation of the main biogeochemical fluxes and the dynamics of the planktonic trophic network. The international BOUM cruise took place between 16 June and 20 July 2008, involved 32 scientists on board, and covered around 3000 km in the MS from the South of Cyprus to Marseilles (France). This paper describes in detail the objectives of the BOUM experiment, the implementation plan of the cruise, the water masses and general biogeochemical trends encountered, and lays particular emphasis on description of the sections and the main physical characteristics of the three anticyclonic eddies studied, before concluding with first order biogeochemical budgets and a general overview of the 24 other papers published in this special issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In fire-prone environments, the "event-dependent hypothesis" states that plant population changes are driven by the unique set of conditions of a fire (e.g., fire season, climate). Climate variability, in particular changes in rainfall patterns, can be most important for seeder species, since they must regenerate after fire from seeds, and for Mediterranean shrublands, given the high yearly variability of rainfall in these ecosystems. Yet, the role of rainfall variability and its interaction with fire characteristics (e.g., fire season) on plant populations has received little attention. Here we investigated the changes in seedling emergence and recruitment of three seeder species (Cistus ladanifer, Erica umbellata and Rosmarinus officinalis) after fires lit during three different years and at two times during the fire season (early and late in the fire season) to account for potential changes in the soil seed-bank during the year. Three plots were burned at each season, for a total of 18 plots burned during the three years. After fire, emerged seedlings were tallied, tagged and monitored during three years (two the last burning year). Rainfall during the study period was rather variable, and in some years was well below average. Seedling emergence after fire varied by a factor of 3 to 10, depending on the species and on the burning year. The bulk of seedling emergence occurred in the first year after fire, and seedling recruitment at the end of the study period was tightly correlated with this early emergence. Seedling emergence in E umbellata and R officinalis, but not in C ladanifer, were correlated with precipitation in the fall and winter immediately after the fire, being E umbellata most sensitive to low rainfall. Fire season was generally not an important factor in controlling emergence and recruitment. We discuss how projected changes in rainfall patterns with global warming can alter the balance of species in this shrubland, and can drive some species to near local extinction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nitrogen (N) has emerged in recent years as a key factor associated with global changes, with impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems functioning and human health. In order to ameliorate the effects of excessive N, safety thresholds have been established, such as critical loads (deposition fluxes) and levels (concentrations). For Mediterranean ecosystems, few studies have been carried out to assess these parameters. Our objective was therefore to determine the critical loads of N deposition and long-term critical levels of atmospheric ammonia for Mediterranean evergreen woodlands. For that we have considered changes in epiphytic lichen communities, which have been shown to be one of the most sensitive to excessive N. Based on a classification of lichen species according to their tolerance to N we grouped species into response functional groups, which we used as a tool to determine the critical loads and levels. This was done under Mediterranean climate, in evergreen cork-oak woodlands, by sampling lichen functional diversity and annual atmospheric ammonia concentrations and modelling N deposition downwind from a reduced N source (a cattle barn). By modelling the highly significant relationship between lichen functional groups and N deposition, the critical load was estimated to be below 26 kg (N) ha-1 yr-1, which is within the upper range established for other semi-natural ecosystems. By modelling the highly significant relationship of lichen functional groups with annual atmospheric ammonia concentration, the critical level was estimated to be below 1.9 µg m-3, in agreement with recent studies for other ecosystems. Taking into account the high sensitivity of lichen communities to excessive N, these values should be taken into account in policies that aim at protecting Mediterranean woodlands from the initial effects of excessive N. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An increase in the annual daily temperature is documented and predicted to occur in the coming decades. Climate change has a direct effect and adverse impact on human health, as well as on multiple ecosystems and their species. The purpose of this paper is to review the effect of climate change on neglected tropical diseases including leishmaniasis, schistosomiasis, and lymphatic filariasis in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR). A list of engine web searches was done; 280 full-text records were assessed for eligibility. Only 48 original records were included within the final selection for the review study. Most research results show an alteration of neglected diseases related to climate change influencing specifically the Eastern Mediterranean Region, in addition to the expectation of more effects at the level of vectors and reservoir whether its vector transmission route or its egg hatching and replication or even the survival of adult worms in the coming years. At the same time, not all articles related to the region interpret the direct or indirect effect of climate variations on these specific diseases. Although few studies were found describing some of climate change effects on neglected tropical diseases in the region, still, the region lacks research funding, technical, and mathematical model expertise regarding the direct effect of climate change on the ecosystems of these neglected tropical diseases., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

In Europe, regions in the Mediterranean area share common characteristics in terms of high sensitivity to climate change impacts. Does this translate into specificities regarding climate action that could arise from these Mediterranean characteristics? This paper sheds light on regional and local climate mitigation actions of the Mediterranean Europe, focusing on the plans to reduce greenhouse gases emissions in a representative sample of 51 regions and 73 cities across 9 Mediterranean countries (Croatia, Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain). The study investigates: (i) the availability of local and regional mitigation plans, (ii) their goals in term of greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets on the short and medium-long term, and (iii) the impact of transnational climate networks on such local and regional climate mitigation planning. Results of this study indicate an uneven and fragmented planning, that shows a Mediterranean West-East divide, and a link with population size. However, overall, both regional and city action seem insufficiently ambitious with regards to meeting the Paris Agreement, at least at city level. While national frameworks are currently weak in influencing regional and local actions, transnational networks seem to be engaging factors for commitment (at city level) and ambitiousness (at regional level). The uneven and fragmented progress revealed by this study, does not align with the characteristics shared by investigated regions and cities in terms of environmental, socio-political, climatic and economic conditions. The results support the call of a common green deal at the Mediterranean level to further address specific Mediterranean challenges and related needs. This will allow to capitalise on available resources, generate local-specific knowledge, build capacities, and support Mediterranean regions and cities in preparing the next generation of more ambitious mitigation plans., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Barriers and constraints to adapting water resources management to climate change in the Mediterranean region are analysed in this paper. First, we analysed the risks to the water resources sector derived from climate change. We then identified the main objective of water adaptation measures: ensuring there is enough water for food, for people, and for ecosystems. This implies visions about availability - being sufficient water -, accessibility - both physical and economic access -, and adequacy - being safe for ecosystems and human consumption. A portfolio of local and collective actions to adapt water management for agriculture to climate change in Mediterranean countries is presented. Adaptation strategies included improved efficiency, optimisation of governance, enhancement of participation, development of risk-based choices, and economic instruments. Finally, the paper categorised the constraints to implement the measures, give specific examples about these issues and also quantify their impact. When considering constraints and opportunities to implement these water management practices, any environmental policy regulating their adoption should be based on recommending the use of extension and training to local actors on the application of the practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Groundwater is key to economic growth in the Mediterranean region. This is particularly true of areas such as southern Spain, where aquifers underpin social development by supplying water to a booming tourist industry. Intensive groundwater use raises sustainability concerns, as pumping often exceeds the long-term recharge rate. Climate change and population growth are likely to exacerbate the water supply challenge in the coming years, due to the expected decrease in rainfall and to increasing competition among users. This paper examines some of the main aquifers in the Costa del Sol region, one of Spain's leading tourist destinations, where intensive groundwater extraction has led to water table drawdowns and the desiccation of all major springs. A numerical model was developed and calibrated for the purpose of evaluating the likely evolution of the system in the future. Downscaled scenarios from global circulation models were coupled with population growth forecasts to establish a range of plausible water management scenarios. Given the relatively small size of the aquifers and the limited recharge rate, the current pumping patterns appear unsustainable. Results suggest that drawdowns in excess of 150 m could take place within the next decade, thus compromising domestic supplies., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interests The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

World olive production is based on the cultivation of different varieties that respond differently to abiotic factors. Climate change may affect the area of land suitable for olive cultivation and change production levels, thus causing serious damage to this economically-relevant and highly-productive olive grove agroecosystem. In Mediterranean regions such as Andalusia, one of the main areas of olive production, the effect of climate change seems threatening. Thus, our main aims are: (1) to examine the abiotic factors that characterise the current cultivated locations and predict the current and potential distribution of these locations; (2) to evaluate the effect of climate change (based on regional scenarios) on the future environmental suitability of each olive variety; and (3) to analyse the expected alteration in the annual olive production. We used the seven most-productive olive varieties in Andalusia and the wild olive species to develop Species Distribution Models (SDMs), coupled with soil properties, geomorphology, water balance and (bio-)climatic predictors at a fine scale. We also derived future climate projections to assess the effect of climate change on the environmental suitability and productivity of each olive variety. We found that soil pH was the most-important factor for most distribution models, while (bio-)climatic predictors - such as continentality index, summer and autumn precipitation and winter temperature - provided important contributions. In general, projections based on regional climate change scenarios point to a decrease in the area suitable for olive crops in Andalusia, due to an increase in evapotranspiration and a decrease in precipitation. These changes in suitable area are also projected to decrease olive production for almost all the olive-growing provinces investigated. Our findings may anticipate the effects of climate change on olive crops and provide early estimates of fruit production, at local and regional scales, as well as forming the basis of adaptation strategies., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

This paper investigates the correlation between climate, environment and human land use in the Westernmost Mediterranean on both sides of the Strait of Gibraltar during the Late Glacial. Using a multi-proxy approach on a sample of 300 sites from the Solutrean and Magdalenian of the Iberian Peninsula and from the Iberomaurusian in Morocco, we find evidence for significant changes in settlement patterns and site density after the Last Glacial Maximum. In Southern Iberia, during Heinrich Stadial 1, hyperarid zones expanded drastically from the south-eastern coast to the West through the Interior. This aridification process heavily affected Magdalenian settlement in the South and caused a strong decline of hunter-gatherer population. Southern Iberia during Heinrich Stadial 1 turned out to be a high-risk environment when compared to Northern Iberia. At the same time, the Late Iberomaurusian of Morocco, although considered to be situated in a high-risk environment as well, experiences an increase of sites and expansion of settlement area., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

This paper focuses on early Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) records in the Mediterranean zone, which are under-represented in continental archives (9.2 to 8.2 ka events) and on their impact on prehistoric societies. This lack of data handicaps the general interpretation of climate impacts on human societies, which flourished in recent years. Key questions remain about the impact of early Holocene cooling events on the Mediterranean climate, ecosystems and human societies. In this paper, we discuss some examples from river and lake systems from the eastern to central Mediterranean area (central Anatolia, Cyprus, northeastern and northwestern Greece) that illustrate some palaeohydrological and erosion variations that modified the sustainability of the first Neolithic populations in this region. Results allow us to present direct land-sea correlations and to reconstruct regional long-term trends as well as millennial- to centennial-scale climatic changes. In this context, we question the socio-economic and geographical adaptation capacities of these societies (mobility, technology, economic practices, social organisation) during the "early Holocene" interval (11.7 to 8.2 ka), which corresponds partly to the Sapropel 1 deposition in the eastern Mediterranean sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper deals with a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) as a reliable solution for capturing the kinematics of a fire front spreading over a fuel bed. To provide reliable information in fire studies and support fire fighting strategies, a Wireless Sensor Network must be able to perform three sequential actions: 1) sensing thermal data in the open as the gas temperature; 2) detecting a fire i.e., the spatial position of a flame; 3) tracking the fire spread during its spatial and temporal evolution. One of the great challenges in performing fire front tracking with a WSN is to avoid the destruction of motes by the fire. This paper therefore shows the performance of Wireless Sensor Network when the motes are protected with a thermal insulation dedicated to track a fire spreading across vegetative fuels on a field scale. The resulting experimental WSN is then used in series of wildfire experiments performed in the open in vegetation areas ranging in size from 50 to 1,000 m2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines future climate change scenarios for the Mediterranean region using the Tourism Climatic Index. Currently, an estimated 100 million tourists visit the Mediterranean region annually, largely because of its favourable climate. Experiments with climate change scenarios suggest likely changes, with the Mediterranean becoming too hot in summer, with northern Europe having a more attractive climate, and with the Mediterranean becoming a more pleasant destination in spring and autumn. These spatial and temporal changes in climatic attractiveness could have major impacts on the sustainability of tourism development. Preliminary results for the case study of the Balearic Islands suggest that changes are likely to be detrimental from an economic and social point of view, and neutral or favourable from a resource management and biodiversity perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims at conducting the first science mapping analysis of the Mediterranean forest research in order to elucidate its research structure and evolution. We applied a science mapping approach based on co-term and citation analyses to a set of scientific publications retrieved from the Elsevier’s Scopus database over the period 1980–2014. The Scopus search retrieved 2,698 research papers and reviews published by 159 peer-reviewed journals. The total number of publications was around 1% (N = 17) during the period 1980–1989 and they reached 3% (N = 69) in the time slice 1990–1994. Since 1995, the number of publications increased exponentially, thus reaching 55% (N = 1,476) during the period 2010–2014. Within the thirty-four years considered, the retrieved publications were published by 88 countries. Among them, Spain was the most productive country, publishing 44% (N = 1,178) of total publications followed by Italy (18%, N = 482) and France (12%, N = 336). These countries also host the ten most productive scientific institutions in terms of number of publications in Mediterranean forest subjects. Forest Ecology and Management and Annals of Forest Science were the most active journals in publishing research in Mediterranean forest. During the period 1980–1994, the research topics were poorly characterized, but they become better defined during the time slice 1995–1999. Since 2000s, the clusters become well defined by research topics. Current status of Mediterranean forest research (20092014) was represented by four clusters, in which different research topics such as biodiversity and conservation, land-use and degradation, climate change effects on ecophysiological responses and soil were identified. Basic research in Mediterranean forest ecosystems is mainly conducted by ecophysiological research. Applied research was mainly represented by land-use and degradation, biodiversity and conservation and fire research topics. The citation analyses revealed highly cited terms in the Mediterranean forest research as they were represented by fire, biodiversity, carbon sequestration, climate change and global warming. Finally, our analysis also revealed the multidisciplinary role of climate change research. This study provides a first holistic view of the Mediterranean forest research that could be useful for researchers and policy makers as they may evaluate and analyze its historical evolution, as well as its structure and scientific production. We concluded that Mediterranean forest research represents an active scientific field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the study of the impact of precipitation changes on alluvial aquifer systems in Xanthi Prefecture plain region, Greece. Two study areas were investigated, taking into account several hydrological and hydrogeological data for a time period of 23 years (1989-2011) measured and elaborated in the framework of the hydrogeological conceptual model assessment of the aquifer systems. It is considered that the evaluation and presentation of this kind of material is informative and quite necessary enforcing the reliability of the approach of the research presented in this paper. Graphs are designed showing precipitation monthly values and groundwater level fluctuation values recorded by three groundwater level loggers installed at the study areas. The conjunctive and synthetic assessment of the impact of precipitation on groundwater level fluctuation is carried out at three levels regarding precipitation moving average values fluctuation classified into thee time periods, high groundwater level values distinguished in three time periods, and correlation between precipitation moving average values and groundwater level values with temporal discrimination within specific hydrological years. It is concluded that the influence of precipitation on groundwater level fluctuation in the study area can almost responsibly be indicated based on original and reliable data contributing to better understanding and managing the functioning of the investigated aquifer system under several climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the intentions of tourists to purchase climate insurance as part of their holiday packages. A research model, based on Bagozzi's reformulation of attitude theory designed to examine the relationships between climate expectation-disconfirmation and the behavioral intentions of tourists in purchasing tourism climate insurance, with destination loyalty as an outcome. The model hypothesizes and tests whether expectation-disconfirmation can be resolved by insuring the product-climate. A structural equation modeling is utilized. The results reveal that the expectation-disconfirmation of tourists in relation to climate is positively associated with their intentions to purchase insurance and negatively affects loyalty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Croatia is one of the well-known Mediterranean destinations for nautical tourism which full development potential is waiting to be used. Cultural attractions, indented coastline, numerous islands, climatic and other advantages are not enough. Croatia needs new infra- and supra-structures, which are reflected through investments in new marinas, anchorages and other facilities. Portugal is an Atlantic country, but with a Mediterranean culture due to its proximity and (potentially) benefiting from its extensive shoreline, two archipelagos, and being located in a geographical position where thousands of yachts pass by each year. The article aims to analyse the accommodation capacities of nautical tourism ports in Croatia and in Portugal. The authors have given an overview of the current situation with an emphasis on the differences and possibilities. The purpose of this article is to analyse the legal objective of nautical tourism and the growing need for accommodation capacities in ports of nautical tourism in both countries. The authors have carried out the research and have analysed data from different years and regions. Although more in Croatia, nautical tourism is a significant part of the national economy in both countries with a strong incentive on the local community. The special goal of this paper is to research into and analyse the economic and ecological impact of nautical tourism through ports of nautical tourism and with a special emphasis on marinas. The result obtained and the critical overview has been presented as one of the important contributions of this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate continentality or oceanity is one of the main characteristics of the local climatic conditions, which varies with global and regional climate change. This paper analyzes indexes of continentality and oceanity, as well as their variations in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in the period 1950–2015. Climatology and changes in continentality and oceanity are examined using Conrad’s Continentality Index (CCI) and Kerner’s Oceanity Index (KOI). The impact of Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns on continentality/oceanity conditions was also evaluated. According to CCI, continentality is more significant in Northeast Siberia and lower along the Pacific coast of North America as well as in coastal areas in the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean. However, according to KOI, areas of high continentality do not precisely correspond with those of low oceanity, appearing to the south and west of those identified by CCI. The spatial patterns of changes in continentality thus seem to be different. According to CCI, a statistically significant increase in continentality has only been found in Northeast Siberia. In contrast, in the western part of North America and the majority of Asia, continentality has weakened. According to KOI, the climate has become increasingly continental in Northern Europe and the majority of North America and East Asia. Oceanity has increased in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and in some parts of the Mediterranean region. Changes in continentality were primarily related to the increased temperature of the coldest month as a consequence of changes in atmospheric circulation: the positive phase of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic (EA) patterns has dominated in winter in recent decades. Trends in oceanity may be connected with the diminishing extent of seasonal sea ice and an associated increase in sea surface temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The soils of the Mediterranean Basin are the products of soil processes that have been governed by a unique convergence of highly differentiated natural and anthropogenic drivers. These soils are expected to be dramatically affected by future climate and societal changes. These changes imply that suitable adaptive management strategies for these resources cannot simply be transposed from experiments that are performed in other regions of the world. Following a framework that considers the chain of “drivers-soil process-soil capital-ecosystem services/disservices,” the paper review the research undertaken in the Mediterranean area on three types of Mediterranean soil degradation than can be expected under global change: (i) soil losses due to the increase of drought and torrential rainfall; (ii) soil salinization due the increase of droughts, irrigation, and sea level; and (iii) soil carbon stock depletion with the increase of temperature and droughts. The possible strategies for mitigating each of these degradations have been largely addressed and are still studied in current research projects. They should include changes in agricultural practices, soil water management, and vegetal material. As a pre-requisite for the site-specific adaptations of such mitigation strategies within viable Mediterranean agrosystems, it is highlighted that methodological advances are necessary in integrated assessment of agricultural systems and in finer resolution soil mapping. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water resources in Mediterranean regions are under increasing pressure due to climate change, economic development, and population growth. Many Mediterranean rivers have their headwaters in mountainous regions where hydrological processes are driven by snowpack dynamics and the specific variability of the Mediterranean climate. A good knowledge of the snow processes in the Mediterranean mountains is therefore a key element of water management strategies in such regions. The objective of this paper is to review the literature on snow hydrology in Mediterranean mountains to identify the existing knowledge, key research questions, and promising technologies. We collected 620 peer-reviewed papers, published between 1913 and 2016, that deal with the Mediterranean-like mountain regions in the western United States, the central Chilean Andes, and the Mediterranean basin. A large amount of studies in the western United States form a strong scientific basis for other Mediterranean mountain regions. We found that: (1) the persistence of snow cover is highly variable in space and time but mainly controlled by elevation and precipitation; (2) the snowmelt is driven by radiative fluxes, but the contribution of heat fluxes is stronger at the end of the snow season and during heat waves and rain-on-snow events; (3) the snow densification rates are higher in these regions when compared to other climate regions; and (4) the snow sublimation is an important component of snow ablation, especially in high-elevation regions. Among the pressing issues is the lack of continuous ground observation in high-elevation regions. However, a few years of snow depth (HS) and snow water equivalent (SWE) data can provide realistic information on snowpack variability. A better spatial characterization of snow cover can be achieved by combining ground observations with remotely sensed snow data. SWE reconstruction using satellite snow cover area and a melt model provides reasonable information that is suitable for hydrological applications. Further advances in our understanding of the snow processes in Mediterranean snow-dominated basins will be achieved by finer and more accurate representation of the climate forcing. While the theory on the snowpack energy and mass balance is now well established, the connections between the snow cover and the water resources involve complex interactions with the sub-surface processes, which demand future investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mediterranean region is undergoing rapid local and global social and environmental changes. All indicators point to an increase in environmental and water scarcity problems with negative implications towards current and future sustainability. Water management in Mediterranean countries is challenged these pressures and needs to evolve to reach the target of increasing population with reliable access to freshwater established by the Millennium Development Goals. This paper first reviews and evaluates current and future social and environmental pressures on water resources, including climate change. The results show that pressures are not homogeneous across the region and sectors of water use. Second the paper evaluates the adaptation strategies to cope with water scarcity, including technology, use of strategic groundwater, and management. Finally, the paper proposes a framework for managing the risk of water scarcity based on preparedness rather than a crisis approach. The importance of local management at the basin level is emphasized, but the potential benefits depend on the appropriate multi-institutional and multi-stakeholder coordination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mediterranean Region exhibits significant contrasts in its demographic and hydrologic features that have shaped the water management policies of the Mediterranean countries. Although awareness is raising with respect to sustainable water management, the extent to which it is applied in practice is debatable. Use conflicts and non-renewable water extraction in water scarce part of the region like the Southern and Eastern rim countries are exposed as overriding management issues. Furthermore climatic variations are superimposed on natural hydro-stress and water dependency on external resources in most of the cases. Decision-making process needs measurable, comparable and reliable tools in order to be able to make trade-offs when facing conflicting issues. Indicators are valuable tools for understanding the trends and challenges encountered in water resources management. The Contracting Parties to the Barcelona Convention adopted, in November 2005, the Mediterranean Strategy for Sustainable Development (MSSD). Integrated water resources and demand management constitute the first priority among the range of actions of the adopted strategy. Increasing efficiency by reducing losses and wasteful use is expected to help stabilise water demand in the Southern and Eastern part of the Mediterranean countries. In this paper, an assessment of the existing water management concepts and policies in Mediterranean countries will be presented based on sustainable development indicators related to water management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lakes in the Mediterranean climate zone experience high variation in rainfall and are vulnerable to changes in climate, land cover and anthropogenically induced effects on water level and salinity. This paper presents the results from the analyses of spatiotemporal changes of land cover/uses at catchment scale of two connected lakes in Greece that have recently exhibited a dramatic loss of water volume, and investigates the potential role of climate change as a main driver of the lake water loss. The classification of the historical land cover/uses was based on a series of LANDSAT images from 1972 to 2011. Changes in the landscape structure were assessed using landscape metrics that were calculated with FRAGSTATS software. Climate data and temporal series of water level, conductivity and chloride concentration, were analyzed to investigate the potential role of climate variability to the lake hydrology and water quality. The results showed that between 1972 and 2011 almost 28% of Lake Vegoritis and 13% of Lake Petron were replaced by cultivations and reed beds. Landscape metrics showed that the lake catchment's area is highly fragmented, indicating a heterogeneous spatial pattern and degradation of the rural habitats. Regarding the climatic factors, it appears that precipitation follows a declining trend correlating with water level fluctuations. The water level in Lake Vegoritis also correlated with the conductivity and chloride concentration, indicating a relationship between hydrological alteration and water quality. Overall, a combined effect of climate- and human-induced land cover changes appeared to be responsible for the drastic environmental changes that urge the need for implementing effective restoration and mitigation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change will further exacerbate wetland deterioration, especially in the Mediterranean region. On the one side, it will accelerate the decline in the populations and species of plants and animals, this resulting in an impoverishment of biological abundance. On the other one, it will also promote biotic homogenization, resulting in a loss of species' diversity. In this context, different climate change adaptation policies can be designed: those oriented to recovering species' abundance and those aimed at restoring species' diversity. Based on the awareness that knowledge about visitors' preferences is crucial to better inform policy makers and secure wetlands' public use and conservation, this paper assesses the recreational benefits of different adaptation options through a choice experiment study carried out in S'Albufera wetland (Mallorca). Results show that visitors display positive preferences for an increase in both species' abundance and diversity, although they assign a higher value to the latter, thus suggesting a higher social acceptability of policies pursuing wetlands' differentiation. This finding acquires special relevance not only for adaptation management in wetlands but also for tourism planning, as most visitors to S'Albufera are tourists. Thus, given the growing competition to attract visitors and the increasing demand for high environmental quality and unique experiences, promoting wetlands' differentiation could be a good strategy to gain competitive advantage over other wetland areas and tourism destinations.

Climate change significantly affects every day’s human activities such as agriculture and tourism by altering the composition and parameters of global atmosphere over long period of time. In Greece, a substantial part of the national gross domestic product comes from agricultural production the efficiency (e.g. crop yield) of which mainly depends on adequacy and sufficiency of resources such as water and soil fertility. In this concept, the water footprint (WF) could be used as a monitoring indicator to evaluate applied agricultural schemes and potential adaptation measures in cultivated regions in Greece with respect to consumption of freshwater resources and deterioration of water receptors considering climate change scenarios. In the present paper, agricultural WF in two plains in Crete, Messara and Chania, are calculated in order to estimate the environmental impacts of the currently applied agricultural schemes on freshwater resources and soil productivity in the two plains. The analysis was based on a climate change scenario that has been developed up to 2100 to assess the effects of precipitation and temperature variability on crop yield and consumption of freshwater resources in the two plains. The results analysis showed that for all the crops in both Messara and Chania plains the two components of WF, blue and green have a substantial contribution to the overall WF of crops. However, the changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation as they are estimated in the examined climate change scenario may affect the evolution of blue and green WF till 2100 by alternating the source of consumed water between water reserves and rainfall. In both also Cretan plains is observed that an estimation of future water needs based on WF indicator could be obtained considering the particular climate scenario only for irrigated crops due to the similar trend that is followed by temperature and total WF. A similar estimation could not be made for rain-fed crops due to the high variability in future precipitation values (lowR2). Finally, the impact of climate change with respect to WF estimation is considerably higher in water scarce areas like Messara plain. The crop yield sensitivity analysis for citrus demonstrated that there is no pattern by which it is possible to estimate their crop yield considering only mean monthly temperature and precipitation values. The crop yield is decisively influenced by the timing that the different rainfall and temperature events happened during the growing season. By concluding special concern should be paid on adaptation measures in local, regional, and national level in order to control the impact of climate change on crop yields. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The effects of climate changes are being strongly perceived in the studied area as in the rest of the Mediterranean basin, and groundwater resources are obviously affected. In this paper, Figeh karst spring discharge and precipitation in Damascus basin were analyzed by normalized methods on a yearly time scale. Trends and fluctuations have been highlighted by moving average and the time series are transformed by the rescaled adjusted partial sum (RAPS). Cumulative drought analyses were carried out using SPI30 and SQI30. Finally, the decreasing trends of the spring discharge due the decrease in rainfall were analyzed. The main results reveal that moving averages and linear trends of SPI and SQI delineate very well the drought periods and exhibit clear decrease of precipitation and spring discharge. The RAPS method identifies a consecutive drought that lasted for 8-9 years separated by 2-3 years of wet periods, during the last three decades. The cumulative droughts using SPI30 and SQI30 reveal that wet period (1970-1983) with positive SPI30 and SQI30 was characterized by high precipitation and spring discharge, followed by transition period (1984-1997) with around zero values, was affected by the beginning of successive severe and extended droughts. Finally, dry period (1998-2013) with negative indexes values distinguished by the effect of severe and extended droughts. The decreasing trends analysis using DPI and DQI showed annual decreasing rates of −0.36 % and of −0.63 %, respectively. Thus, the results reveal that precipitation will be decreased to about DPI = −27 % and the discharge decline of about −47 % by 2050. Consequently, Figeh karstic system is affected by severe extended hydrological droughts during the past three decades especially where the SPI30 and SQI30 values decrease below −10. Accordingly, it requires the development of sustainable groundwater management to reduce long-terms drought risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A growing number of studies argue that forest transition should be enhanced by policymakers given its potential benefits, for instance in slowing climate change through carbon sequestration. Yet the effects of forest transition in landscape heterogeneity and biodiversity remain poorly understood. In this paper we explore the relationships between the forest transition and the landscape changes occurred in a Mediterranean mountain area. Historical land-use maps were built from cadastral cartography (1854; 1956; 2012). Metrics on land-cover change, landscape structure, and landscape functioning were calculated. Multiyear data on butterfly assemblages from two transects (1994-2012) was used as indicator of land-use change effects on biodiversity. Results show a forest expansion process in former cereal fields, vineyards and pasturelands along with rural out-migration and land abandonment. Such forest transition involved large changes in landscape structure and functioning. As peasant management of integrated agrosilvopastoral systems disappeared, landscape became less diverse. Even if forest area is now larger than in mid-nineteenth century, ecological connectivity among woodland did not substantially improve. Instead, ecological connectivity across open habitats has greatly decreased as cereal fields, vineyards, meadows and pasturelands have almost disappeared. Butterfly assemblages under changing land-uses highlights the importance of agro-forest mosaics not only for these species but for biodiversity at large in the last decades. Our work emphasizes that conservation of landscapes with a long history of human use needs to take into account the role of humans in shaping ecological features and biodiversity. Hence the suitability of forest transitions should be critically examined in relation to context and policy objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some broom species have the ability to modify elements of the fire regime in invaded areas. One such species, Teline monspessulana (Syn. Genista monspessulana; French Broom), has expanded notoriously in south-central Chile's Mediterranean climate. The biota of this area may be particularly vulnerable to effects of invasive species on the fire regime, as it is less adapted to wildfires. The properties of the fuel accumulated in T. monspessulana populations of different ages are characterised in this paper. For this, models were constructed to estimate fuel accumulation in T. monspessulana populations, and tests for flammability of foliage were also performed. The results show that the rapid growth of this invasive shrub ensures a significant accumulation of fuel (close to 90 ton ha-1) in periods shorter than a decade, which may influence the severity of wildfires. Further, the fuel has a significant accumulation of fine material and high flammability, both of which may facilitate the ignition of fires. The large volume and high flammability of the fuel accumulated in T. monspessulana populations can thus play an important role in changing the fire regime in areas where it has invaded. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rainfall erosivity, playing a decisive role into erosion and degradation of soils, is a relevant factor for land-use planning and environmental risk assessment. Its decisive role must be studied by also taking in mind the outlook of climate change. The observations needed to determine the erosivity with adequate temporal and spatial detail, however, are rarely available. The aim of this study consists in assessing the spatial and seasonal distribution of rainfall erosivity in the Mediterranean environment. A regional analysis of erosivity was conducted considering more than 45 thousands erosive rainstorms in Calabria (Southern Italy). A network of 155 rain gauges, well distributed over the region, provided the necessary information with a time detail of 5 min between 1989 and 2008. After a concise review of the literature, three time scales were considered: monthly, daily and 'single event' scale. A power law relationship between the values of rainfall and erosivity, obtained by analysing the erosive rainstorms, was applied, showing systematic seasonal variations. The climatic control on erosivity was well described by regression equations formed by a constant value (wet period) and a cosine curve (dry months). This seasonal trend testifies that a greater erosivity per unit of rainfall has to be expected in the driest months. In addition, altitude ranges in Calabria from sea level to over 2,000 m a.s.l., affecting the rainfall regime. Considering this aspect, the regression equations were slightly improved by including the influence of the altitude in the analysis of erosivity. The erosivity maps, achievable in the Mediterranean climate area through the methods and equations proposed in this paper, can provide a significant contribution towards the modelling of detachment and transport of soil particles at the catchment scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scientific community and policy-makers share the common interest in identifying and evaluating potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems, relying mainly on probabilistic methods of exploring the risks. In this perspective, the concept of ensemble forecasting makes possible to handle uncertainties associated with climate risk analysis by focusing on a range of potential or probable impact scenarios rather than actualizing a single case. In this paper, an ensemble of simulations based on the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) model was used to investigate the uncertainty upon predictions of the future Euro-Mediterranean vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics, and water budget. Twenty simulations from past to future were based on the combination of different climate inputs, vegetation model parameterizations, and configurations. The evaluation of results combined the separate deterministic future projections from the LPJ model into a single probabilistic projection, associating a likelihood degree in accordance with the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change terminology. Results projected a general critical situation in terms of water availability, made more serious if considering that also the occurrence of extreme-related events, e.g., fires, is expected to become more frequent as favored by more recurrent drought episodes. Although more uncomfortable climate conditions were projected for vegetation, net primary production (NPP) was predicted to increase due to the potential enrichment of CO in atmosphere and its fertilization effects on vegetation. The combination of rising NPP and fire frequency may shape the carbon cycle components, as the carbon losses by fire also were projected to increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background In the last decades, climate change and globalisation have been exacerbating the introduction of non-native beetles worldwide. Due toits peculiar territory, climate and geographical position in the middle of the Mediterranean Basin, Italy is one of the European countries with the highest number of intercepted, adventive and established nonnative beetles, some of which are invasive. In this perspective, producing new faunistic records and continuously updating reliable and easily accessible distributional data is a fundamental step in investigating and potentially preventing further species introduction. New information The aim of this contribution is to report and discuss new faunistic records of non-native Coleoptera in Italy. For some species, new records enlarge the previously-known distribution (e.g. the ambrosia beetles Anisandrus maiche (Kurentzov, 1941) and Cnestus mutilatus (Blandford, 1894) or the click beetle Monocrepidius posticus (Eschscholtz, 1829)), while for others (e.g. the scarab beetle Archophileurus spinosus Dechambre, 2006), data confirm their establishment and highlight a possible expansion phase. The false powderpost beetles Ptilineurus marmoratus (Reitter, 1877) and the longhorn beetle Xylotrechus chinensis (Chevrolat, 1852) are two new additions to the Italian fauna, while the establishment of the monotomid beetle Monotoma americana Aubé 1837 is confirmed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mediterranean mountains harbour some of Europe's highest floristic richness. This is accounted for largely by the mesoclimatic variety in these areas, along with the co-occurrence of a small area of Eurosiberian, Boreal and Mediterranean species, and those of Tertiary Subtropical origin. Throughout the twenty-first century, we are likely to witness a climate change-related modification of the biogeographic scenario in these mountains, and there is therefore a need for accurate climate regionalisations to serve as a reference of the abundance and distribution of species and communities, particularly those of a relictic nature. This paper presents an objective mapping method focussing on climate regions in a mountain range. The procedure was tested in the Cordillera Central Mountains of the Iberian Peninsula, in the western Mediterranean, one of the ranges occupying the largest area of the Mediterranean Basin. This regionalisation is based upon multivariate analyses and upon detailed cartography employing 27 climatic variables. We used spatial interpolation of data based on geographic information. We detected high climatic diversity in the mountain range studied. We identified 13 climatic regions, all of which form a varying mosaic throughout the annual temperature and rainfall cycle. This heterogeneity results from two geographically opposed gradients. The first one is the Mediterranean-Euro-Siberian variation of the mountain range. The second gradient involves the degree of oceanicity, which is negatively related to distance from the Atlantic Ocean. The existing correlation between the climatic regions detected and the flora existing therein enables the results to be situated within the projected trends of global warming, and their biogeographic and ecological consequences to be analysed.

This paper discusses the relative performance of several climate models in providing reliable forcing for hydrological modeling in six representative catchments in the Mediterranean region. We consider 14 Regional Climate Models (RCMs), from the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project, run for the A1B emission scenario on a common 0.22º (about 24 km) rotated grid over Europe and the Mediterranean region. In the validation period (1951 to 2010) we consider daily precipitation and surface temperatures from the observed data fields (E-OBS) data set, available from the ENSEMBLES project and the data providers in the ECA&D project. Our primary objective is to rank the 14 RCMs for each catchment and select the four best-performing ones to use as common forcing for hydrological models in the six Mediterranean basins considered in the EU-FP7 CLIMB project. Using a common suite of four RCMs for all studied catchments reduces the (epistemic) uncertainty when evaluating trends and climate change impacts in the 21st century. We present and discuss the validation setting, as well as the obtained results and, in some detail, the difficulties we experienced when processing the data. In doing so we also provide useful information and advice for researchers not directly involved in climate modeling, but interested in the use of climate model outputs for hydrological modeling and, more generally, climate change impact studies in the Mediterranean region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Free convection is the most often used method in order to reduce solar load gains on a building with double glazed façades (DGFs). However, depending on the climate factors, the thermal performance of a DGF may not be satisfactory and extra energy costs are required to obtain suitable comfort conditions inside the building. Forced ventilation systems are a feasible alternative to improve the thermal performance of a DGF in Mediterranean climates where large solar gains are a permanent condition throughout the year. In this paper the feasibility of using diverse forced ventilation methods in DGF is evaluated. In addition, an economical comparison between different mechanical ventilation systems was performed in order to demonstrate the viability of DGF forced ventilation. Moreover, an environmental study was carried out to prove the positive energetic balance on cooling loads between free and forced convection in DGF for Mediterranean climates. For this investigation, a CFD model was used to simulate the thermal conditions in a DGF for the different ventilation systems. Results obtained for heat flux, temperature and reductions in solar load gains were analyzed and applied for the economic and environmental research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of climate change on wildfires constitutes a serious concern in fire-prone regions with complex fire behavior such as the Mediterranean. The coarse resolution of future climate projections produced by General Circulation Models (GCMs) prevents their direct use in local climate change studies. Statistical downscaling techniques bridge this gap using empirical models that link the synoptic-scale variables from GCMs to the local variables of interest (using e.g. data from meteorological stations). In this paper, we investigate the application of statistical downscaling methods in the context of wildfire research, focusing in the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), one of the most popular fire danger indices. We target on the Iberian Peninsula and Greece and use historical observations of the FWI meteorological drivers (temperature, humidity, wind and precipitation) in several local stations. In particular, we analyze the performance of the analog method, which is a convenient first choice for this problem since it guarantees physical and spatial consistency of the downscaled variables, regardless of their different statistical properties. First we validate the method in perfect model conditions using ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Overall, not all variables are downscaled with the same accuracy, with the poorest results (with spatially averaged daily correlations below 0.5) obtained for wind, followed by precipitation. Consequently, those FWI components mostly relying on those parameters exhibit the poorest results. However, those deficiencies are compensated in the resulting FWI values due to the overall high performance of temperature and relative humidity. Then, we check the suitability of the method to downscale control projections (20C3M scenario) from a single GCM (the ECHAM5 model) and compute the downscaled future fire danger projections for the transient A1B scenario. In order to detect problems due to non-stationarities related to climate change, we compare the results with those obtained with a Regional Climate Model (RCM) driven by the same GCM. Although both statistical and dynamical projections exhibit a similar pattern of risk increment in the first half of the 21st century, they diverge during the second half of the century. As a conclusion, we advocate caution in the use of projections for this last period, regardless of the regionalization technique applied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The understanding of regional vulnerability to climate change in Mediterranean mountain forests is not well developed. Climate change impacts on tree growth should be strongly related to the steep environmental gradients of mountainous areas, where a temperature-induced upward shift of the lower elevation limit is expected, particularly amongst drought-sensitive species. Trees will adapt not only to changes in mean climate variables but also to increased extreme events such as prolonged drought. In this paper, we investigate the sub-regional temperature and precipitation trends and measure the basal area increment (BAI) in Pinus nigra subsp. salzmannii (Dunal) Franco. Significant differences related to altitudinal and latitudinal gradients and stand-age structure were found in response to long-term trends in climate dryness. Old trees growing at higher elevations showed similar extreme drought sensitivity but maintained almost steady BAI. Declining BAI found in trees at lower elevations and drier sites may imply a higher vulnerability to temperature-induced drought stress, suggesting an impending growth decline and an enhanced die-off risk. Our results illustrate how the effects of long-term warming and short-term drought on tree BAI are influenced by both site conditions and mean stand age in a drought-sensitive Mediterranean pine.

This paper reviews the forest resources in Turkey in the light of published literature and summarises extensive fieldwork undertaken in the Mediterranean phytogeograhical region of Turkey. The issues of landscape change and the associated drivers are addressed and the threats to the forest diversity are considered. It notes the impacts of climate change and forest fires and attemepts have been made to put forth future options for sustainable forest development.