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This paper provides a detailed analysis of the Tokyo Metropolitan Emissions Trading Scheme (Tokyo ETS), Japan’s first emissions trading scheme with mandatory cap initiated by the government of Tokyo. Unlike trading schemes in other countries, the Tokyo ETS covers indirect emissions from the commercial sector. It is well known that a variety of market barriers impede full realization of energy efficiency opportunities, especially in the commercial sector. Experiences with the Tokyo ETS should therefore provide important lessons for the design of climate change mitigation policies, especially when targeting the commercial sector. The emissions from covered entities have been drastically reduced from those at the scheme’s outset, with an average 14% reduction as of the end of the first commitment period of five years (2010-2014) compared with 2009 levels. This paper shows that the Tokyo ETS alone did not cause these reductions; there were other drivers. Among them, the energy savings triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 were crucial. The contribution of credit trading, in contrast, was limited since most of the covered entities reduced emissions by themselves. Through an investigation of official reports, an assessment of the emissions data from the covered entities compared to those of uncovered entities and in-depth interviews with firms covered by the scheme, this paper confirms that the main drivers of emissions reductions by covered entities were separate from the ETS. In fact, the advisory aspect of the scheme seems to be much more important in encouraging energy-saving actions. Key policy insights Most of the observed emission reductions were not caused by the Tokyo ETS alone. An advisory instrument was crucial to the effectiveness of the Tokyo ETS. The experience of the Tokyo ETS suggests that making full use of the advantages of emissions trading is difficult in the case of the commercial sector. Price signals have not provided a stimulus to climate change mitigation actions, which implies that establishing a cap to yield effective carbon prices poses a challenge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tokyo Metropolitan Government has been actively promoting comprehensive policy measures to reduce carbon emissions from non-residential buildings. Among them, the Tokyo Cap-and-Trade Program (TCTP), implemented since 2010, is an important measure to accelerate the building sector’s emission reduction to achieve Tokyo’s greenhouse gas target, 25% reduction by 2020 from a year 2000 baseline level. Under TCTP, all large commercial and industrial facilities are required to achieve the 25% reduction in two compliance periods (FY2010–14 and FY2015–19). An emission-trading scheme was established that allows building owners to purchase carbon credits to compensate for shortfalls and sell excess reductions over the obligations. This paper assesses the effectiveness of TCTP based on extensive data obtained from 1300 facilities covered by the programme and surveys among facility owners from the first compliance phase. Data indicate that TCTP has been working effectively to reduce energy consumption in participating facilities to meet the ambitious emission reduction goals, to introduce new technologies, and to raise awareness and drive behavioural changes for energy demand reduction. TCTP is examined as an alternative policy instrument to building energy codes in a portfolio of sustainable building policies, highlighting its unique capacity for driving deeper and longer-term improvements for more ambitious mitigation targets. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Recently, local governments have an increasing need to take extensive and effective local measures to adapt to regional climate change, but have difficulty knowing how and when to adapt to such change. This study aims: 1) to characterize an efficient and cost-effective database management tool (DMT) for developing a Geographic Information System (GIS) based approach to using observed and projected data, for decision-making by non-expert government authorities, and 2) to document how DMT can be used to provide specialized yet understandable climate change information to assist local decision-makers in clarifying regional priorities within a wide array of adaptation options. The DMT combines climate change mapping, statistical GIS, and a vulnerability assessment. Okutama-machi, a 225.63 km sparsely populated mountainous region (2012 population 5,856) northwest of Tokyo, Japan, was chosen for this pilot study. In this paper, the most recent regional climate projections (5 km resolution) are transcribed into an understandable form for use by non-expert citizens who use the GIS-based DMT. Results illustrate qualitative agreement in projection of summer daily mean temperatures; the mean temperature increase at Okutama-machi is the greatest of any area in Tokyo. In comparing near future and future conditions, August monthly mean temperature will increase more than 0.7-0.9 °C and 2.8-2.9 °C, and monthly precipitation by 50 % and 25-41 %, respectively. However, the root mean square (RMS) errors and bias of percentage change for monthly precipitation in summertime are 26.8 % and 4.3 %, respectively. These data provide an early warning and have implications for local climate policy response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate change research community has developed shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) that can be applied to a diverse range of climate research throughout the world (Moss et al., 2010; van Vuuren et al., 2014; O’Neill et al., 2014., Kriegler et al., 2014). However, the regional scenario specifically for cities is also increasing in importance since SSPs are described as being of a global scale. Based on the projected world’s pathways which are defined by SSPs, this paper attempts to develop Tokyo’s long-term socioeconomic scenarios. Firstly, important factors and elements were investigated through literature reviews, and then a basic theoretical framework was developed. Secondly, expert interviews were conducted to gather more relevant narratives and elements based on the theoretical framework. Three alternative Tokyo future pathways by 2050 were established. The Local Vitality scenario and the Efficiency scenario belong to the sustainability scenario in the SSPs, with a comparison with the business as usual (BAU) case. An important feature of such a city-scale scenario is to address urban form elements and infrastructure. The elements used for Tokyo can be applied for other cities. Projecting the future is fraught with a number of uncertainties, however, describing possible pathways can provide significant support for developing sustainable mechanisms for society as a whole. This work can lay the groundwork for developing further quantitative approaches to examine strategies for reducing environmental and societal impacts in different pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of climate change are apparent in various regions of the world. Even though climate change may have a positive effect, it is anticipated that there will be many severely negative effects on human and natural resources in the future. Therefore, in addition to the need for stronger promotion of mitigation policies, it is urgently necessary to study and implement adaptation policies over the longer term to prepare for the possible negative impact of climate change. To implement climate change adaptation measures rapidly in Japan, it would seem practical and effective to make good use of the various countermeasures already promoted by both the national and the local governments for many sectors such as disaster prevention, environmental management, food production, and protection of the nation's health. These countermeasures are considered to have potential for effecting climate change adaptation. This study, focusing on adaptation to climate change negative impacts, investigates to what extent the existing policies of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government could contribute to climate change adaptation, based on a comprehensive examination of targeted fields and indicators for which adaptation policies could be pursued. The results showed many of the existing policies could be useful for adaptation to climate change in many sectors. Furthermore, less than half of these policies need to take future climate change into account in order to contribute to climate change adaptation. This study proposes three basic steps that consider future climate change and local governmental propositions for the rapid implementation of adaptation policies in Japan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea level rise and an increase in typhoon intensity are two of the expected consequences from future climate change. In the present work, a methodology to change the intensity of tropical cyclones in Japan was developed, which can be used to assess the inundation risk to different areas of the country. As a result, the probability of a storm with an equivalent return period in the year 2100 to that of the worst storm in the 20th century overcoming sea defences around Tokyo Bay could be calculated. The risk of higher storm surges, coupled with different sea-level-rise scenarios, highlights how the dykes around Tokyo or Kawasaki could fail unless adaptation measures against climate change are attempted. The cost of adapting to both of these effects by building higher coastal dykes and raising port areas outside them was quantified. Finally, an estimation of the cost of allowing the areas behind the defences to be flooded was also made, clearly showing that the cost of adaptation measures is clearly lower than the cost of inaction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The process of adopting policy ideas is extremely complex and requires a close examination of the political context in which the idea is learned, articulated, contested, adapted, and accepted by agents, both individual and collective. Why and how was the world's first urban scheme of mandatory reduction of total emissions adopted in Tokyo and not elsewhere? What might cause diffusion of this idea in other urban areas? One key explanation behind the idea adoption is a policy evolution of trial-and-error lessons about effective policy design, desirable policy goals, and politically feasible judgments. This study finds that both agency effects and structural opportunities of policy adoption in the case of Tokyo's cap-and-trade are too specific to result in a more coherent diffusion of ideas, policies, and practices in other urban areas. Although there is a sign of diffusion of Tokyo's cap-and-trade throughout Japan, it is more likely to derive from mimicking behaviors than from learning. The policy transfer of Tokyo's cap-and-trade requires the continuous learning of adaptive capacity to make it better fit to locally specific conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In this study, the impact of global climate change and anticipated urbanization over the next 70 years is estimated with regard to the summertime local climate in the Tokyo metropolitan area (TMA), whose population is already near its peak now. First, five climate projections for the 2070s calculated with the aid of general circulation models (GCMs) are used for dynamical downscaling experiments to evaluate the impact of global climate changes using a regional climate model. Second, the sensitivity of future urbanization until the 2070s is examined assuming a simple developing urban scenario for the TMA. These two sensitivity analyses indicate that the increase in the surface air temperature from the 1990s to the 2070s is about 2.0°C as a result of global climate changes under the A1B scenario in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) and about 0.5°C as a result of urbanization. Considering the current urban heat island intensity (UHII) of 1.0°C, the possible UHII in the future reaches an average of 1.5°C in the TMA. This means that the mitigation of the UHII should be one of the ways to adapt to a local temperature increase caused by changes in the future global climate. In addition, the estimation of temperature increase due to global climate change has an uncertainty of about 2.0°C depending on the GCM projection, suggesting that the local climate should be projected on the basis of multiple GCM projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In April 2010 the Tokyo Metropolitan Government launched the Tokyo Cap-and-Trade Program to reduce energy consumption-related CO2 emissions at the city level. This is the world's first cap-and-trade programme to cover buildings in the commercial, industrial and public sectors. Its main aim is to reduce CO2 emissions from energy consumption in existing buildings in urban areas; therefore, it is called an ‘urban cap-and-trade programme’. The appropriateness and effectiveness of this demand-side mechanism are examined, as well as the key policy and strategy components for introducing this new mechanism. Crucial factors for the successful introduction of this programme include the implementation of a mandatory reporting programme prior to the cap-and-trade programme and a consultation process involving open discussions among stakeholders for creating a consensus. Actual outcomes of the programme will take several years to assess; however, given the significant impact of growing carbon emissions from existing urban buildings, an urban cap-and-trade mechanism can be a worthwhile action at the level of local governance. Based on these lessons, other cities can consider this urban cap-and-trade scheme as a viable policy instrument. En avril 2010, l'Administration Métropolitaine de Tokyo a lancé le Programme de Plafonnement et d'Echange de Droits d'Emission de Tokyo afin de réduire les émissions de CO2 liées à la consommation d'énergie au niveau de la ville. Il s'agit là du premier programme au monde de plafonnement et d'échange de droits d'émission de gaz à effet de serre à couvrir les bâtiments des secteurs commercial, industriel et public. Son principal but est de réduire les émissions de CO2 dues à la consommation d'énergie dans les immeubles existants des zones urbaines ; il est par conséquent considéré comme un « programme urbain de plafonnement et d'échanges de droits d'émission ». L'opportunité et l'efficacité de ce mécanisme axé sur la demande sont examinées, ainsi que les éléments clés politiques et stratégiques permettant d'introduire ce nouveau mécanisme. Les facteurs cruciaux pour une introduction réussie de ce programme comprennent la mise en œuvre d'un programme de reporting obligatoire préalablement au programme de plafonnement et d'échange de droits d'émission et un processus de consultation impliquant un débat ouvert entre les parties prenantes afin de créer un consensus. L'évaluation des résultats concrets de ce programme prendra plusieurs années ; cependant, étant donné l'impact significatif de l'augmentation des émissions de carbone provenant des bâtiments urbains existants, un mécanisme urbain de plafonnement et d'échange des droits d'émission peut être une mesure utile au niveau de la gouvernance locale. Sur la base de ces enseignements, d'autres grandes villes peuvent considérer ce système urbain de plafonnement et d'échange des droits d'émission comme étant un instrument viable de politique. Mots clés: bâtiments, plafonnement et échange de droits d'émission, villes, changement climatique, émissions de CO2, demande énergétique, gouvernance, formulation d'une politique, motivation des parties prenantes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines why the persistence of easterly wind during major stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) varies from one SSW to another. From the 22 SSWs identified between 1979 and 2009, six long and six short SSWs of easterly wind periods longer than 20 days and shorter than 10 days, respectively, are chosen and their composites are compared. While the polar-night jet is stronger than the climatological jet before long SSWs, the preconditioning of the polar-night jet tends to occur before short SSWs. After the occurrence of SSWs, the easterly wind of short SSWs quickly returns to a westerly wind due to large positive Eliassen-Palm (E-P) flux divergence in the winter polar stratosphere. The easterly wind of long SSWs lasts for 20-40 days because the E-P flux divergence is small whether it is positive or negative. Such a difference in the E-P flux divergence originates from the difference in the upward E-P flux from the troposphere. On the other hand, the positive E-P flux divergence during short SSWs is not caused by the variation of upward E-P flux from the troposphere but could be due to the shear instability caused by the overreflection of zonal wavenumber 1 planetary waves at the critical surface. The difference in the persistence of easterly wind between long and short SSWs also has a large impact on the planetary wave activity in the winter stratosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We have recovered instrumental temperature and pressure observations from Tokyo covering the periods 1825-1828, 1839-1855, and 1872-1875; from Yokohama covering the periods 1860-1871 and 1874; from Osaka covering the periods 1828-1833 and 1869-1871; and from Kobe covering the periods 1869-1871 and 1875-1888. The newly recovered records contain data before the 1870s, which is a period where, until recently, no instrumental data in Japan were believed to exist. Their addition to the previous backward extension of Japanese series, as based on the recently recovered intermittent Dejima/Nagasaki series 1819-1878, implies that the nineteenth-century extension of the Japanese instrumental record no longer contains major temporal gaps. The recovered data were used for a preliminary calculation of the west-Japan temperature (WJT) series, which is a representative temperature series for the area. The existence of a warm epoch in the 1850s over W-Japan and a downward temperature trend till the early twentieth century, as previously inferred from documentary data, is confirmed from the WJT data. The pressure data implies that the temperature differences between the nineteenth and twentieth centuries are at least partly caused by a change in atmospheric circulation. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]