Search

Ships' logbooks are now an accepted part of the repertoire of data sources in climate change studies. This article examines some of the particular issues surrounding logbooks from the Arctic region in the so-called pre-instrumental period. Attention is given to the means by which narrative descriptions of wind, weather and sea ice cover can be reliably expressed in index form. Consideration is also given to the various means by which these data can be most effectively managed for scientific analysis as in most cases they were not recorded for such purposes. Many such logbooks remain yet to be digitized and the methods described here can be applied with equal confidence in future through such undertakings using English language documents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the Arctic and its rivers continue to warm, a better understanding of the possible future impacts on people would benefit from close partnership with Indigenous communities and scientists from diverse fields of study. We present efforts by the Arctic Rivers Project to conduct community‐engaged research to increase collective understanding of the historical and potential future impacts of climate change on rivers, fish, and Indigenous communities. Working in central to northern Alaska and the Yukon Territory in Canada, the project seeks to engage with Indigenous communities in ethical and equitable ways to produces science that is useful, useable, and used that may serve as an example for future research efforts. Toward this goal, we formed an Indigenous Advisory Council and together developed project‐specific knowledge co‐production protocols. This paper provides a novel model of design and implementation to co‐produce knowledge with communities across a large study domain. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic and rivers located in the Arctic and subarctic are warming due to climate change. To understand the impacts this warming will have on people, partnering with impacted Indigenous communities in the region is important. It is also important that these partnerships are ethical and equitable and produce science that is actionable. This paper discusses efforts undertaken by a specific project, the Arctic Rivers Project, to conduct ethical and equitable research with Indigenous communities and generate science that is useful to those communities. Through this research our goal is to better understand potential future impacts of climate change on rivers, fish, and Indigenous communities in central northern Alaska and the Yukon Territory in Canada. To achieve this goal, the project formed an Indigenous Advisory Council (IAC) and together developed guidelines for how we can work collaboratively with Indigenous communities. Our specific process of forming an IAC and guidelines is, to our knowledge, a new way to approach collaborative research when working across a large geographic area. We present our process here so that it may provide an example for other research efforts. Key Points: Arctic climate information can be made useful, useable, and used by equitably accounting for diverse community adaptation needs through knowledge co‐productionInstitutional and community capacity, including means and ability, is necessary for equitable knowledge co‐production to occurWe present an approach for co‐producing knowledge with Indigenous communities that can serve as an example for other scientific efforts [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research paper explores S M Nazmuz Sakib's hypothesis of aerosol-sea ice feedback and its implications for climate system dynamics. The hypothesis suggests that changes in aerosol emissions significantly impact sea ice concentration and thickness in the Arctic, which, in turn, affect aerosol transport and deposition over the Tibetan Plateau. The paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the hypothesis, including the underlying facts, a proposed formula for the aerosol-sea ice feedback, and the potential variations of this feedback based on regional and temporal patterns of aerosol emission changes. Furthermore, the paper introduces the Sea Ice-Aerosol-Cloud Feedback (SIACF) Index and its application to historical incidents related to aerosol emission changes. The SIACF Index provides a quantitative measure to evaluate the influence of changes in aerosol emissions on sea ice concentration and thickness. The paper concludes by emphasizing the importance of testing this hypothesis through global aerosol models, observations, and historical incidents to gain a deeper understanding of aerosol-climate interactions and develop effective mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A review of many studies published since the late 1920s reveals that the main driving mechanisms responsible for the early-twentieth-century Arctic warming (ETCAW) are not fully recognized. The main obstacle seems to be our limited knowledge about the climate of this period and some forcings. A deeper knowledge based on greater spatial and temporal resolution data is needed. The article provides new (or improved) knowledge about surface air temperature (SAT) conditions (including their extreme states) in the Arctic during the ETCAW. Daily and subdaily data have been used (mean daily air temperature, maximum and minimum daily temperature, and diurnal temperature range). These were taken from 10 individual years (selected from the period 1934–50) for six meteorological stations representing parts of five Arctic climatic regions. Standard SAT characteristics were analyzed (monthly, seasonal, and yearly means), as were rarely investigated aspects of SAT characteristics (e.g., number of characteristic days, day-to-day temperature variability, and the onset, end, and duration of thermal seasons). The results were compared with analogical calculations done for data taken from the contemporary Arctic warming (CAW) period (2007–16). The Arctic experienced warming between the ETCAW and the CAW. The magnitude of warming was greatest in the Pacific (2.7°C) and Canadian Arctic (1.9°C) regions. A shortening of winter and lengthening of summer were noted. Furthermore, the climate was also a little more continental (except the Russian Arctic) and less stable (greater day-to-day variability and diurnal temperature range) during the ETCAW than during the CAW. Significance Statement: It is well established that human activity (particularly increased greenhouse gas emissions) is the primary driving mechanism of the recent dramatic warming in the Arctic. However, the causes of a similar warming here in the first half of the twentieth century remain uncertain. The limited knowledge about the climate of that period—which mainly results from the low resolution of data—is a significant obstacle to a definitive determination of the forcing mechanisms. Therefore, the main aim of our paper is to improve our understanding of specific aspects of weather and climate (including extremes) using long-term series of daily and subdaily data that have rarely been applied for this purpose. This new, more comprehensive knowledge about the historical Arctic climate should allow the scientific community (particularly climate modelers) to better validate both climate models and reanalysis products and, consequently, to more precisely identify the causes of the early-twentieth-century Arctic warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents the results of a bifurcation analysis of a simple energy balance model (EBM) for the future climate of the Earth. The main focus is on the following question: can the nonlinear processes intrinsic to atmospheric physics, including natural positive feedback mechanisms, cause a mathematical bifurcation of the climate state, as a consequence of continued anthropogenic forcing by rising greenhouse gas emissions? Our analysis shows that such a bifurcation could cause an abrupt change to a drastically different climate state in the EBM, which is warmer and more equable than any climate existing on Earth since the Pliocene epoch. In previous papers, with this EBM adapted to paleoclimate conditions, it was shown to exhibit saddle-node and cusp bifurcations, as well as hysteresis. The EBM was validated by the agreement of its predicted bifurcations with the abrupt climate changes that are known to have occurred in the paleoclimate record, in the Antarctic at the Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT) and in the Arctic at the Pliocene–Paleocene transition (PPT). In this paper, the EBM is adapted to fit Anthropocene climate conditions, with emphasis on the Arctic and Antarctic climates. The four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) considered by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) are used to model future CO2 concentrations, corresponding to different scenarios of anthropogenic activity. In addition, the EBM investigates four naturally occurring nonlinear feedback processes which magnify the warming that would be caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions alone. These four feedback mechanisms are ice–albedo feedback, water vapour feedback, ocean heat transport feedback, and atmospheric heat transport feedback. The EBM predicts that a bifurcation resulting in a catastrophic climate change, to a pre-Pliocene-like climate state, will occur in coming centuries for an RCP with unabated anthropogenic forcing, amplified by these positive feedbacks. However, the EBM also predicts that appropriate reductions in carbon emissions may limit climate change to a more tolerable continuation of what is observed today. The globally averaged version of this EBM has an equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of 4.34 K, near the high end of the likely range reported by the IPCC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A better understanding of the interannual variability in temperature and precipitation datasets used as forcing fields for hydrologic models will lead to a more complete description of hydrologic model uncertainty, in turn helping scientists study the larger goal of how the Arctic terrestrial systemis responding to global change. Accordingly, this paper investigates temporal and spatial variability in monthly mean (1992--2000) temperature and precipitation datasets over the Western Arctic Linkage Experiment (WALE) study region. The six temperature datasets include 1) the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University--National Center for Atmospheric Research MesoscaleModel (MM5); 2) the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40); 3) the Advanced Polar Pathfinderall-sky temperatures (APP); 4) National Centers for Environmental Prediction--National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP--NCAR) reanalyses (NCEP1); 5) the Climatic Research Unit/University of East Anglia CRUTEM2v (CRU); and 6) the Matsuura and Wilmott 0.5° × 0.5° Global Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation (MW). Comparisons of monthly precipitation are examined for MM5, ERA-40, NCEP1, CRU, and MW. Results of the temporal analyses indicate significant differences between at least two datasets (for either temperature or precipitation) in almost every month. The largest number of significant differences for temperature occurs in October, when there are five separate groupings; for precipitation, there are four significantly different groupings from March through June, and again in December. Spatial analyses of June temperatures indicate that the greatest dissimilarity is concentrated in the central portion of the study region, with the NCEP1 and APP datasets showing the greatest differences. In comparison, the spatial analysis of June precipitation datasets suggests that the largest dissimilarity is concentrated in the eastern portion of the study region. These results indicate that the choice of forcing datasets likely will have a significant effecton the output from hydrologic models, and several different datasets should beused for a robust hydrologic assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Late Pleistocene and Holocene ground ice are common throughout the Arctic. Some forms of relict ground ice preserve local meteoric water, and their stable oxygen‐ and hydrogen‐isotope ratios can be used to reconstruct past air temperatures. In this paper, we review the formation and sampling of two forms of relict ground ice—wedge ice and pore ice—and recent (2010–2019) advances in paleoclimatological studies of ground‐ice stable isotope records in the Arctic. Recent advances are attributed to better chronological constraints and refined understandings of the systematics and seasonality of relict wedge ice and pore ice. A rich network of ice‐wedge records has emerged, primarily from the Siberian Arctic, whereas pore‐ice records are less common. The ice‐wedge network depicts a robust pattern of late Pleistocene cooling, and remarkably similar temperature depressions during Marine Isotope Stages 3 and 2. Very high‐resolution wedge‐ and pore‐ice stable isotope chronologies have been established recently and used to reconstruct winter and summer climate histories and to assess seasonal dependencies in insolation‐forced climate. Reports of ancient (>125 ka BP) ground ice demonstrate its long‐term persistence, and its potential to expand our knowledge of Quaternary climate dynamics in the terrestrial Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trace gases and aerosols play a crucial role in shaping Arctic climate through their impacts on radiation and chemistry. The concentration of these substances over the Arctic is largely determined by long-range transport originating from midlatitude and tropical source regions. In this study, we explore how atmospheric circulation modulates the interannual variability of long-range transport into the Arctic by utilizing a chemistry–climate model. Idealized tracers, which have fixed lifetimes and spatially varying but temporally fixed surface emissions corresponding to the climatology of anthropogenic emissions of the year 2000, are employed to isolate the role of atmospheric transport from emission and chemistry in modulating interannual variability. Tracers emitted from different source regions are tagged to quantify their relative contributions. Model simulations reveal that tracers from Europe, East Asia, and North America contribute the most to Arctic tracer mass, followed by those from the Tibetan Plateau and South Asia, as well as the Middle East. These regional tracers are predominantly transported into the Arctic middle to upper troposphere, with the exception of tracers from Europe during winter, which are transported into the Arctic lower troposphere. Our analysis shows that the interannual variability of transport into the Arctic for each regional tracer is determined by the atmospheric circulation over the corresponding emission region; i.e., anomalous poleward and eastward winds over the source region promote transport into the Arctic. Considering tracers with global emissions, a southward shift of the midlatitude jet during winter favors increased transport into the Arctic, particularly for tracers emitted over Asia, aligning with previous studies. Comparisons of tracers with different lifetimes indicate that the interannual variability of shorter lifetime tracers is predominantly influenced by regional tracers with shorter transport pathways into the Arctic (e.g., Europe), while the interannual variability of longer lifetime tracers is more contributed by regional tracers with higher emissions (e.g., East Asia). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines search and rescue and backcountry medical response constraints in the Canadian Arctic and potential for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) to aid in response and preparedness. Semi-structured interviews (n = 18) were conducted with search and rescue responders, Elders, and emergency management officials to collect data on current emergency response and potential for UAV use. UAV test flights (n = 17) were undertaken with community members. We analyzed five years of weather data to examine UAV flight suitability. Numerous challenges face Arctic search and rescue and backcountry emergency response. Changing social and environmental conditions were described as increasing vulnerability to backcountry emergencies. Responders desired additional first aid and emergency training. Legal and weather restrictions were found to limit where, when and who could fly UAVs. UAVs were demonstrated to have potential benefits for hazard monitoring but not for SAR or medical response due to legal restrictions, weather margins, and local capacity. We find that communities are ill-prepared for ongoing SAR demands, let alone a larger disaster. There are numerous limitations to the use of consumer UAVs by Arctic communities. Prevention of backcountry medical emergencies, building resilience to disasters, and first responder training should be prioritized over introducing UAVs to the response system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The link between weather regimes (WRs) and polar low (PL) activity is examined over the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. Compared to earlier studies based on limited, regional PL datasets, our study conducts a more complete evaluation of regional WR–PL relationships using an expanded PL climatology. Our findings show that PL activity is increased over the Norwegian and Barents Seas during the Atlantic ridge regime and decreased over the former region during the Scandinavian blocking regime, with negative impacts also stretching to the Irminger Sea. Over the Labrador and Irminger Seas, PL activity is modulated strongest by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with positive impacts during the positive phase and vice versa. Over the North Pacific, the Arctic low contributes to increased PL activity over most regions, while the opposite is true for the Pacific wave train regime. The variability of PL activity associated with WRs is strongly related to changes in key environmental conditions. In general, regions of enhanced (reduced) PL activity are coincident with anomalous low-level northerly (southerly) flow and reduced (increased) static stability. Further analysis shows that certain persistent WRs can strongly modulate PL activity over some regions, either due to the amplification or propagation of favorable or unfavorable conditions, which cautions the limitation of regarding WRs as stationary patterns. A previously developed PL genesis potential index is shown to represent the observed impacts well, which serves to confirm the robustness of our findings and suggests the potential applicability of WRs to the subseasonal prediction of PLs. Significance Statement: Polar lows are intense small-scale (∼300 km) cyclones that form over high-latitude oceanic regions. The hazardous impacts they pose to coastal communities and maritime and air operations in the Arctic motivate their skillful prediction, which remains a major challenge at lead times beyond a few days. In this study, we relate PLs and the key environmental conditions that favor their development to weather regimes, which are recurrent large-scale circulation patterns that can persist for weeks at a time. We find that weather regimes have strong impacts on polar low activity through the modulation of key environmental conditions. These relationships can potentially be utilized in the extended-range prediction of polar lows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate estimates of the spatial and temporal variation in terrestrial water and energy fluxes and mean states are important for simulating regional hydrology and biogeochemistry in high-latitude regions. Furthermore, it is necessary to develop high-resolution hydroclimatological datasets at finer spatial resolutions than are currently available from global analyses. This study uses a regional climate model (RCM) to develop a hydroclimatological dataset for hydrologic and ecological application in the Western Arctic. The fifth-generation Penn State–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) forced by global reanalysis products at the boundaries is used to perform 12 yr of simulation (1990 through 2001) over the Western Arctic. An analysis that compares the RCM simulations with independent observationally derived data sources is conducted to evaluate the temporal and spatial distribution of the mean states, variability, and trends during the period of simulation. The RCM simulation of sea level pressure agrees well with the reanalysis in terms of mean states, seasonality, and interannual variability. The RCM also simulates major spatial patterns of the observed climatology of surface air temperature (SAT), but RCM SAT is generally colder in the summertime and warmer in the wintertime in comparison with other datasets. Although there are biases in the mean state of SAT, the RCM simulations of the seasonal and interannual variability of SAT are similar to variability in observationally derived datasets. The RCM also simulates general spatial patterns of observed rainfall, but the modeled mean state of precipitation is characterized by large biases relative to observationally derived datasets. In particular, the RCM tends to overestimate coastal region precipitation but underestimates precipitation in the interior of the Western Arctic. The Arctic terrestrial surface climate trends for the period of 1992 to 2001 of the RCM are similar to those derived from observations, with sea level pressure decreasing 0.15 hPa decade-1, SAT increasing 0.10°C decade-1, and precipitation decreasing slightly in the RCM simulations. In summary, the RCM dataset produced in this study represents an improvement over data currently available from large-scale global reanalysis and provides a consistent meteorological forcing dataset for hydrologic and ecological applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are the primary mechanism for transporting water vapor from low latitudes to polar regions, playing a significant role as drivers of extreme weather, such as heavy precipitation and heat waves in both the Arctic and Antarctica. With the rapidly growing interest in polar ARs during the past decade, it is imperative to establish an objective framework to quantify the strength and impact of these ARs for both scientific research and practical application. The AR scale introduced by Ralph et al. (2019) ranks ARs based on the duration of AR conditions and the intensity. However, the thresholds of integrated water vapor transport (IVT) used to rank ARs are selected based on the IVT climatology at middle latitudes. These thresholds are insufficient for polar regions due to the substantially lower temperature and moisture content. In this study, we analyze the IVT climatology in polar regions, focusing on the coasts of Antarctica and Greenland. Then we introduce an extended version of the AR scale tuned to polar regions by adding lower IVT thresholds of 100, 150, and 200 kg m-1 s-1 to the standard AR scale, which starts at 250 kg m-1 s-1. The polar AR scale is utilized to examine AR frequency, seasonality, trends, and associated precipitation and surface melt over the Antarctic and Greenland coasts. The polar AR scale better characterizes the strength and impacts of ARs in the Antarctic and Arctic regions, and has the potential to enhance communications across observation, research, and forecasts for polar regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper addresses the specter of a September ice-free Arctic in the 21st century using newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that large spread in the projected timing of the September ice-free Arctic in 30 CMIP5 models is associated at least as much with different atmospheric model components as with initial conditions. Here we reduce the spread in the timing of an ice-free state using two different approaches for the 30 CMIP5 models: (i) model selection based on the ability to reproduce the observed sea ice climatology and variability since 1979 and (ii) constrained estimation based on the strong and persistent relationship between present and future sea ice conditions. Results from the two approaches show good agreement. Under a high-emission scenario both approaches project that September ice extent will drop to ~ 1.7 million km2 in the mid 2040s and reach the ice-free state (defined as 1 million km2) in 2054-2058. Under a medium-mitigation scenario, both approaches project a decrease to ~1.7 million km2 in the early 2060s, followed by a leveling off in the ice extent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spaceborne radar altimeters record echo waveforms over all Earth surfaces, but their interpretation and quantitative exploitation over the Arctic Ocean is particularly challenging. Radar returns may be from all ocean, all sea ice, or a mixture of the two, so the first task is the determination of which surface and then an interpretation of the signal to give range. Subsequently, corrections have to be applied for various surface and atmospheric effects before making a comparison with a reference level. This paper discusses the drivers for improved altimetry in the Arctic and then reviews the various approaches that have been used to achieve the initial classification and subsequent retracking over these diverse surfaces, showing examples from both LRM (low resolution mode) and SAR (synthetic aperture radar) altimeters. The review then discusses the issues concerning corrections, including the choices between using other remote-sensing measurements and using those from models or climatology. The paper finishes with some perspectives on future developments, incorporating secondary frequency, interferometric SAR and opportunities for fusion with measurements from laser altimetry or from the SMOS salinity sensor, and provides a full list of relevant abbreviations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper suggests that the Polar Regions are excellent places for thinking about historical interactions between climate change, science, and politics from the beginning of the Cold War up to the present. Since the second half of the 1940s, science has played a central role in contesting claims to political authority in both the Arctic and the Antarctic. Research conducted in the Polar Regions has made a major contribution to the science of climate change on a global scale, and research agendas have been closely connected in the two regions. Viewed from a comparative perspective, however, the historical experiences of global warming in the Arctic and Antarctica have been quite different. Climate research has suggested that warming is generally happening faster over much of the Arctic than the Antarctic. In addition, the recent histories of the two regions show that climate change in the Arctic is destabilizing politics there, whereas in Antarctica climate change is helping to reinforce the existing political structures framed by the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS). A comparative approach to the history of climate change in the Polar Regions helps to demonstrate that science, politics, and environmental change have each played important roles without making any single factor deterministic. WIREs Clim Change 2012, 3:145-159. doi: 10.1002/wcc.161 For further resources related to this article, please visit the . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric icing on structures has proven to be an area of concern in many cold climate geographical regions like arctic and alpine. Difficulties encountered by the communication, construction and power industries in these areas are the subject of intense investigations for researchers from decades. Three main methods of investigation are generally employed by researchers to study atmospheric ice accretion on structures: a) continuous field measurements, b) lab based simulations using icing wind tunnel & c) numerical modelling. This paper presents a brief review study of various techniques to understand and measure the atmospheric ice accretion on structures, anti/de icing techniques and important parameters for numerical modelling of atmospheric ice accretion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented a report on global warming and the impact of human activities on global warming. Later the Lancet commission identified six ways human health could be affected. Among these were not environmental factors which are also believed to be important for human health. In this paper we therefore focus on environmental factors, climate change and the predicted effects on maternal and newborn health. Arctic issues are discussed specifically considering their exposure and sensitivity to long range transported contaminants. Methods: Considering that the different parts of pregnancy are particularly sensitive time periods for the effects of environmental exposure, this review focuses on the impacts on maternal and newborn health. Environmental stressors known to affects human health and how these will change with the predicted climate change are addressed. Air pollution and food security are crucial issues for the pregnant population in a changing climate, especially indoor climate and food security in Arctic areas. Results: The total number of environmental factors is today responsible for a large number of the global deaths, especially in young children. Climate change will most likely lead to an increase in this number. Exposure to the different environmental stressors especially air pollution will in most parts of the world increase with climate change, even though some areas might face lower exposure. Populations at risk today are believed to be most heavily affected. As for the persistent organic pollutants a warming climate leads to a remobilisation and a possible increase in food chain exposure in the Arctic and thus increased risk for Arctic populations. This is especially the case for mercury. The perspective for the next generations will be closely connected to the expected temperature changes; changes in housing conditions; changes in exposure patterns; predicted increased exposure to Mercury because of increased emissions and increased biological availability. Conclusions: A number of environmental stressors are predicted to increase with climate change and increasingly affecting human health. Efforts should be put on reducing risk for the next generation, thus global politics and research effort should focus on maternal and newborn health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the potential effects of future commercial shipping through the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage on the spread of nonindigenous species (NIS) between Europe, the United States, and the Asia-Pacific region. We modeled NIS spread risk as a function of two factors: NIS introduction and NIS establishment. The change in risk of NIS introduction from one region to another is based on the expected commodity trade flow between the two regions given Arctic shipping routes. The risk of NIS establishment is based on current marine climate similarities between regions and projected 2030 terrestrial climate similarities. Results indicate that the United States, China, and Japan are at greatest risk for increased terrestrial and marine NIS spread to and from one another given their relatively high levels of trading activity and terrestrial and marine climate similarities. While increased trade between European and Asia-Pacific countries is expected in the future, only Japan has terrestrial climate similar enough to that of European countries to be considered a substantial terrestrial NIS spread risk, while China has the potential to increase the risk of marine NIS species spread in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper is concerned with the mathematical modelling of complex interactions between plant species in a harsh environment such as in the arctic. The aim of the paper is to consider whether interactions between the species change in character as environments change. For example, if the effect of climate change is to make harsh climates more benign, will this imply changes in the way species interact and affect biodiversity? We consider the interaction of two species of grass. Our model is constructed based on the notion of a summer season when the plants grow, followed by a winter season when there is no growth but when the plants are subject to the effects of events such as winter storms. Our aim is to investigate changes when the summer season is lengthened, when the climate becomes more benign, when the susceptibility of plants to damage as a result of storms is increased, and when the intensity (and number) of winter storms is varied. The models we consider provide new insights into the known behaviour of plant species interactions in such situations and a basis for further modelling and prediction. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

As a part of the IPY project POLARCAT (Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements and Models, of Climate Chemistry, Aerosols and Transport), this paper studies the sources of equivalent black carbon (EBC), sulphate, light-scattering aerosols and ozone measured at the Arctic stations Zeppelin, Alert, Barrow and Summit during the years 2000-2007. These species are important pollutants and climate forcing agents, and sulphate and EBC are main components of Arctic haze. To determine where these substances originate, the measurement data were combined with calculations using FLEXPART, a Lagrangian particle dispersion model. The climatology of atmospheric transport from surrounding regions on a twenty-day time scale modelled by FLEXPART shows that the stations Zeppelin, Alert and Barrow are highly sensitive to surface emissions in the Arctic and to emissions in high-latitude Eurasia in winter. Emission sensitivities over southern Asia and southern North America are small throughout the year. The high-altitude station Summit is an order of magnitude less sensitive to surface emissions in the Arctic whereas emissions in the southern parts of the Northern Hemisphere continents are more influential relative to the other stations. Our results show that for EBC and sulphate measured at Zeppelin, Alert and Barrow, northern Eurasia is the dominant source region. For sulphate, Eastern Europe and the metal smelting industry in Norilsk are particularly important. For EBC, boreal forest fires also contribute in summer. No evidence for any substantial contribution to EBC from sources in southern Asia is found. European air masses are associated with low ozone concentrations in winter due to titration by nitric oxides, but are associated with high ozone concentrations in summer due to photochemical ozone formation. There is also a strong influence of ozone depletion events in the Arctic boundary layer on measured ozone concentrations in spring and summer. These results will be useful for developing emission reduction strategies for the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic region has exhibited dramatic changes in recent times. Many of these are intimately tied up with synoptic activity, but little research has been undertaken on how the characteristics of Arctic cyclones have changed. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of Arctic (here defined as the domain north of 70°N) cyclones diagnosed with the Melbourne University cyclone tracking scheme applied to the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and the NCEP–NCAR (NCEP1) and NCEP–Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-II (NCEP2) reanalysis sets (the last two extending to the end of 2006). A wide variety of cyclone characteristics is presented as befits these complex features. In winter the highest density of cyclones is found between Norway and Svalbard and to the east to the Barents and Kara Seas, and significant numbers are found in the central Arctic. In summer the greatest frequencies are found in the central Arctic. The total number of cyclones identified in the ERA-40 record exceeds those in the two NCEP compilations. The mean size of cyclones shows similar maxima in the central Arctic in both winter and summer. By contrast, the greatest mean system depth in winter (in excess of 8 hPa) is found to the southeast of Greenland, although average depths exceed 6 hPa over a considerable portion of the basin. In summer the deepest cyclones are found in the central portion of the Arctic. The analysis shows that the total number of cyclones in winter exceeds that in summer, a result in contrast to earlier studies. This difference comes about primarily due to the greater numbers of “open strong” systems in winter in all reanalyses. Cyclones in this category are associated with very active synoptic situations; it is of importance that they be included in cyclone counts but would not be considered in many cyclone identification schemes. Since 1979 neither the ERA-40 nor the NCEP2 sets show significant trends in any of the cyclone variables considered. However, over the entire record starting in 1958 the NCEP1 reanalysis exhibits a significant increase in summer cyclone frequency (due mainly to the increase in closed strong systems). Both NCEP1 and ERA-40 also reveal significant increases in the number of summer closed strong cyclones, as well as in their mean depth and intensity in that season. Interannual variations in Arctic cyclone numbers are closely related to the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index in the full reanalyses records. An even stronger relationship is found between the AO and the number of deep cyclones. These relationships have still held in the last decade when the AO has returned to more normal values but the summer and fall sea ice extent has continued to decrease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Downwelling radiation in six regional models from the Arctic Regional Climate Model Intercomparison (ARCMIP) project is systematically biased negative in comparison with observations from the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) experiment, although the correlations with observations are relatively good. In this paper, links between model errors and the representation of clouds in these models are investigated. Although some modeled cloud properties, such as the cloud water paths, are reasonable in a climatological sense, the temporal correlation of model cloud properties with observations is poor. The vertical distribution of cloud water is distinctly different among the different models; some common features also appear. Most models underestimate the presence of high clouds, and, although the observed preference for low clouds in the Arctic is present in most of the models, the modeled low clouds are too thin and are displaced downward. Practically all models show a preference to locate the lowest cloud base at the lowest model grid point. In some models this happens also to be where the observations show the highest occurrence of the lowest cloud base; it is not possible to determine if this result is just a coincidence. Different factors contribute to model surface radiation errors. For longwave radiation in summer, a negative bias is present both for cloudy and clear conditions, and intermodel differences are smaller when clouds are present. There is a clear relationship between errors in cloud-base temperature and radiation errors. In winter, in contrast, clear-sky cases are modeled reasonably well, but cloudy cases show a very large intermodel scatter with a significant bias in all models. This bias likely results from a complete failure in all of the models to retain liquid water in cold winter clouds. All models overestimate the cloud attenuation of summer solar radiation for thin and intermediate clouds, and some models maintain this behavior also for thick clouds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is already occurring in the Arctic and the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment recently concluded that future climate change could be devastating for Inuit. This paper characterises vulnerability to climate change in two Inuit communities in the Canadian territory of Nunavut, focusing on the resource harvesting sector. In both communities, Inuit have demonstrated significant adaptability in the face of current changes in climatic conditions. This adaptability is facilitated by traditional Inuit knowledge, strong social networks, flexibility in resource use, and institutional support. Changing Inuit livelihoods, however, have undermined certain aspects of adaptive capacity and have resulted in emerging vulnerabilities. Global and regional climate projections indicate that climatic conditions which currently pose risks are expected to be negatively affected by future climate change. These projections are not without precedent and analysis of current vulnerability and identification of adaptation constraints by Inuit in the two communities indicate the continued importance of traditional coping mechanisms. The ability to draw on these coping mechanisms in light of future climate change, however, will be unequal and the research indicates that young Inuit and those without access to economic resources, in particular, are vulnerable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The state-of-the-art AOGCM simulations have recently (late 2004–early 2005) been completed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in order to provide input to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The present paper synthesizes the new simulations of both the twentieth- and twenty-first-century arctic freshwater budget components for use in the IPCC AR4, and attempts to determine whether demonstrable progress has been achieved since the late 1990s. Precipitation and its difference with evapotranspiration are addressed over the Arctic Ocean and its terrestrial watersheds, including the basins of the four major rivers draining into the Arctic Ocean: the Ob, the Yenisey, the Lena, and the Mackenzie. Compared to the previous [IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR)] generation of AOGCMs, there are some indications that the models as a class have improved in simulations of the Arctic precipitation. In spite of observational uncertainties, the models still appear to oversimulate area-averaged precipitation over the major river basins. The model-mean precipitation biases in the Arctic and sub-Arctic have retained their major geographical patterns, which are at least partly attributable to the insufficiently resolved local orography, as well as to biases in large-scale atmospheric circulation and sea ice distribution. The river discharge into the Arctic Ocean is also slightly oversimulated. The simulated annual cycle of precipitation over the Arctic Ocean is in qualitative agreement between the models as well as with observational and reanalysis data. This is also generally the case for the seasonality of precipitation over the Arctic Ocean’s terrestrial watersheds, with a few exceptions. Some agreement is demonstrated by the models in reproducing positive twentieth-century trends of precipitation in the Arctic, as well as positive area-averaged P–E late-twentieth-century trends over the entire terrestrial watershed of the Arctic Ocean. For the twenty-first century, three scenarios are considered: A2, A1B, and B1. Precipitation over the Arctic Ocean and its watersheds increases through the twenty-first century, showing much faster percentage increases than the global mean precipitation. The arctic precipitation changes have a pronounced seasonality, with the strongest relative increase in winter and fall, and the weakest in summer. The river discharge into the Arctic Ocean increases for all scenarios from all major river basins considered, and is generally about twice as large as the increase of freshwater from precipitation over the Arctic Ocean (70°–90°N) itself. The across-model scatter of the precipitation increase for each scenario is significant, but smaller than the scatter between the climates of the different models in the baseline period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As part of the Western Arctic Linkage Experiment (WALE), simulations of carbon dynamics in the western Arctic (WALE region) were conducted during two recent decades by driving the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) with three alternative climate datasets. Among the three TEM simulations, we compared the mean monthly and interannual variability of three carbon fluxes: 1) net primary production (NPP), 2) heterotrophic respiration (Rh), and 3) net ecosystem production (NEP). Cumulative changes in vegetation, soil, and total carbon storage among the simulations were also compared. This study supports the conclusion that the terrestrial carbon cycle is accelerating in the WALE region, with more rapid turnover of carbon for simulations driven by two of the three climates. The temperature differences among the climate datasets resulted in annual estimates of NPP and Rh that varied by a factor of 2.5 among the simulations. There is much spatial variability in the temporal trends of NPP and Rh across the region in the simulations driven by different climates, and the spatial pattern of trends is quite different among simulations. Thus, this study indicates that the overall response of NEP in simulations with TEM across the WALE region depends substantially on the temporal trends in the climate dataset used to drive the model. Similar to the recommendations of other studies in the WALE project, this study indicates that coupling methodologies should use anomalies of future climate model simulations to alter the climate of more trusted datasets for purposes of driving ecosystem models of carbon dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The warming of the near-surface air in the Arctic region has been larger than the global mean surface warming. There is general agreement that the Arctic amplification of the surface air temperature (SAT) trend to a considerable extent is due to local effects such as the retreat of sea ice, especially during the summer months, and earlier melting of snow in the spring season. There is no doubt that these processes are important causes of the Arctic SAT trend. It is less clear, however, whether the trend may also be related to recent changes in the atmospheric midlatitude circulation. This question is the focus of the present paper. Model experiments have shown that in a warmer climate responding to, for example, a doubling of CO2, the atmospheric northward energy transport (ANET) will increase and cause polar SAT amplification. In the present study, the development of the ANET across 60°N and its linkage to the Arctic SAT have been explored using the ERA-40 reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). It is found that during 1979–2001, the ANET has experienced an overall positive but weak trend, which was largest during the period from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s. In addition, it is found that the Arctic SAT is sensitive to variability of the ANET across 60°N and hence to variability of the midlatitude circulation: A large ANET is followed by warming of the Arctic where ANET leads by about 5 days. The warming is located primarily north of the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, indicating that baroclinic weather systems developing around the Icelandic and Aleutian lows are important for the energy transport. Furthermore, it is suggested here that a small, but statistically significant, part of the mean Arctic SAT trend is linked to the trend in the ANET. Another important indicator of the midlatitude circulation is the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Through the 1980s and early 1990s the AO index has shown a positive trend. However, even though a part of the SAT trend can be related to the AO in localized parts of the Arctic area, the mean Arctic SAT trend shows no significant linkage to the AO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea ice is influential in regulating energy exchanges between the ocean and the atmosphere, and has figured prominently in scientific studies of climate change and climate feedbacks. However, sea ice is also a vital component of everyday life in Inuit communities of the circumpolar Arctic. Therefore, it is important to understand the links between the potential impacts of climate change on Arctic sea ice extent, distribution, and thickness as well as the related consequences for northern coastal populations. This paper explores the relationship between sea ice and climate change from both scientific and Inuit perspectives. Based on an overview of diverse literature the experiences, methods, and goals which differentiate local and scientific sea ice knowledge are examined. These efforts are considered essential background upon which to develop more accurate assessments of community vulnerability to climate, and resulting sea ice, change. Inuit and scientific perspectives may indeed be the ideal complement when investigating the links between sea ice and climate change, but effective and appropriate conceptual bridges need to be built between the two types of expertise. The complementary nature of these knowledge systems may only be realized, in a practical sense, if significant effort is expended to: (i) understand sea ice from both Inuit and scientific perspectives, along with their underlying differences; (ii) investigate common interests or concerns; (iii) establish meaningful and reciprocal research partnerships with Inuit communities; (iv) engage in, and improve, collaborative research methods; and, (v) maintain ongoing dialogue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polar bears depend on sea ice for survival. Climate warming in the Arctic has caused significant declines in total cover and thickness of sea ice in the polar basin and progressively earlier breakup in some areas. Inuit hunters in the areas of four polar bear populations in the eastern Canadian Arctic (including Western Hudson Bay) have reported seeing more bears near settlements during the open-water period in recent years. In a fifth ecologically similar population, no changes have yet been reported by Inuit hunters. These observations, interpreted as evidence of increasing population size, have resulted in increases in hunting quotas. However, long-term data on the population size and body condition of polar bears in Western Hudson Bay, as well as population and harvest data from Baffin Bay, make it clear that those two populations at least are more likely to be declining, not increasing. While the ecological details vary in the regions occupied by the five different populations discussed in this paper, analysis of passive-microwave satellite imagery beginning in the late 1970s indicates that the sea ice is breaking up at progressively earlier dates, so that bears must fast for longer periods during the open-water season. Thus, at least part of the explanation for the appearance of more bears near coastal communities and hunting camps is likely that they are searching for alternative food sources in years when their stored body fat depots may be depleted before freeze-up, when they can return to the sea ice to hunt seals again. We hypothesize that, if the climate continues to warm as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), then polar bears in all five populations discussed in this paper will be increasingly food-stressed, and their numbers are likely to decline eventually, probably significantly so. As these populations decline, problem interactions between bears and humans will likely continue, and possibly increase, as the bears seek alternative food sources. Taken together, the data reported in this paper suggest that a precautionary approach be taken to the harvesting of polar bears and that the potential effects of climate warming be incorporated into planning for the management and conservation of this species throughout the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The technical achievements of Lewis and Clark have been celebrated in fields ranging from cartography to zoology. As America commemorates the bicentennial of their historic journey across the continent, this paper shows that their meteorological data and personal weather-related observations also are worthy of celebration. While the primary goal of the mission, as described by then-President Jefferson to the Congress, was economic and strategic, both Jefferson and cocaptains Lewis and Clark showed an interest in and capacity for scientific understanding of the meteorology of the then-unknown West. The seasonal evolution and variability of temperatures recorded for the first time by Lewis and Clark on the High Plains can now be shown to be quite close to average, thanks to many decades of collection of modern data by the U.S. Cooperative Observer Network stations along their route. While the diets, lives, and experiences of these early explorers and their men were profoundly different from those of modern Americans, the climate that they documented for the first time with care and accuracy remains familiar to us today. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Current predictions of the effects of climate change indicate that the Arctic may experience a larger than average increase in temperature with consequent changes to the length of the snow-free active summer period, winter snow depth and amount and frequency of summer precipitation being highly probable. This paper reports on measurements of carbon dioxide flux at a high arctic site at Ny-Ålesund (78° 56′ N, 11° 55′ E), Svalbard and the physical climate variables that largely control this flux. It is shown that during three important precipitation-free periods of the active summer period, namely post snowmelt, high summer, and early autumn, the net balance between CO2 flux from the soil (due to respiration of roots and soil organisms) and CO2 assimilation by the vegetation is controlled largely by soil temperature and solar radiation. A simple combined photosynthetic assimilation-soil respiration model is shown to be capable of simulating the net CO2 flux during mid-summer, but is less proficient in the post snowmelt period and in early autumn when the simple models’ inability to simulate the effects of emergent growth and ponding during the former and senescence, freezing temperatures and dew during the latter indicates the need for a more complex descriptive model. The net CO2 flux during the measurement periods progresses from a net CO2 source of 0.3 gC m-2 d-1 during late snowmelt to a mid summer net CO2 sink of -0.39 gC m-2 d-1, returning to a net CO2 source of 0.1 gC m-2 d-1 in the early autumn. Simple extrapolation of the data indicates that, during the active summer season in 1995, this site was a net sink of CO2 of approximately - 9 gC m-2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we analyse the contribution of atmospheric rivers (ARs), cyclones, and fronts to the total precipitation in the Arctic. We focus on two distinct periods of different weather conditions from two airborne campaigns: ACLOUD (Arctic Cloud Observations Using airborne measurements during polar day; May/June 2017) and AFLUX (Aircraft campaign Arctic Boundary Layer Fluxes; March/April 2019). Both campaigns covered the northern North Atlantic sector, the area in the Arctic that is affected by the highest precipitation rates. Using ERA5 reanalysis, we identify pronounced regional anomalies with enhanced precipitation rates compared to the climatology during ACLOUD due to these weather systems, whereas during AFLUX enhanced precipitation rates occur over most of the area. We have established a new methodology that allows us to analyse the contribution of ARs, cyclones, and fronts to precipitation rates based on ERA5 reanalysis and different detection algorithms. Here, we distinguish whether these systems occur co-located or separately. The contributions differ between the two periods. During ACLOUD (early summer), the precipitation rates are mainly associated with AR- (40 %) and front-related (55 %) components, especially if they are connected, while cyclone-related components (22 %) play a minor role. However, during AFLUX (early spring) the precipitation is mainly associated with cyclone-related components (62 %). For both campaign periods, snow is the dominant form of precipitation, and the small rain occurrence is almost all associated with ARs. About one-third of the precipitation can not be attributed to one of the weather systems, the so-called residual. While the residual can be found more frequently as convective than as large-scale precipitation, the rare occasion of convective precipitation (roughly 20 %) can not completely explain the residual. The fraction of precipitation classified as residual is reduced significantly when a precipitation threshold is applied that is often used to eliminate "artificial" precipitation. However, a threshold of 0.1 mm h -1 reduces the total accumulated precipitation by a factor of 2 (ACLOUD) and 3 (AFLUX), especially affecting light precipitation over the Arctic Ocean. We also show the dependence of the results on the choice of the detection algorithm serving as a first estimate of the uncertainty. In the future, we aim to apply the methodology to the full ERA5 record to investigate whether the differences found between the campaign periods are typical for the different seasons in which they were performed and whether any trends in precipitation associated with these weather systems can be identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thermodynamic and dynamic sea ice thickness processes are affected by differing mechanisms in a changing climate. Independent observational datasets of each are essential for model validation and accurate projections of future sea ice conditions. Here, we present a monthly, Arctic-basin-wide, and 25 km resolution Eulerian estimation of thermodynamic and dynamic effects on wintertime sea ice thickness from 2010–2021. Estimates of thermodynamic growth rate are determined by coupling passive microwave-retrieved snow–ice interface temperatures to a simple sea ice thermodynamic model, total growth is calculated from a weekly Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) European Space Agency (ESA) CryoSat-2 and Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) combination product (CS2SMOS), and dynamic effects are calculated as their difference. The dynamic effects are further separated into advection and residual effects using a sea ice motion dataset. Our results show new detail in these fields and, when summed to a basin-wide or regional scale, are in line with previous studies. Across the Arctic, dynamic effects are negative and about one-fourth the magnitude of thermodynamic growth. Thermodynamic growth varies from less than 0.1 m per month in the central Arctic to greater than 0.3 m per month in the seasonal ice zones. High positive dynamic effects of greater than 0.1 m per month, twice that of thermodynamic growth or more in some areas, are found north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, where the Transpolar Drift and Beaufort Gyre deposit ice. Strong negative dynamic effects of less than -0.2 m per month are found where the Transpolar Drift originates, nearly equal to and opposite the thermodynamic effects in these regions. Monthly results compare well with a recent study of the dynamic and thermodynamic effects on sea ice thickness along the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) drift track during the winter of 2019–2020. Couplets of deformation and advection effects with opposite signs are common across the Arctic, with positive advection effects and negative deformation effects found in the Beaufort Sea and negative advection effects and positive deformation effects found in most other regions. The seasonal cycle shows residual deformation effects and overall dynamic effects increasing as the winter season progresses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropopause polar vortices (TPVs) are coherent circulations that occur over polar regions and can be identified by a local minimum in potential temperature and local maximum in potential vorticity. Numerous studies have focused on TPVs in the Arctic region; however, no previous studies have focused on the Antarctic. Given the role of TPVs in the Northern Hemisphere with surface cyclones and other extreme weather, and the role that surface cyclones can play on moisture transport and sea ice breakup, it is important to understand whether similar associations exist in the Southern Hemisphere. Here, characteristics of TPVs in the Antarctic are evaluated for the first time under the hypothesis that their characteristics do not significantly differ from those of the Northern Hemisphere. To improve understanding of Antarctic TPV characteristics, this study examines TPVs of the Southern Hemisphere and compares them to their Northern Hemisphere counterparts from 1979 to 2018 using ERA-Interim data. Common characteristics of TPVs including frequency, locations, lifetimes, strength, and seasonality are evaluated. Results indicate that topography correlates to the geographic distribution of TPVs and the locations of local maxima TPV occurrence, as observed in the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, TPVs in the Southern Hemisphere exhibit seasonal variations for amplitude, lifetime, and minimum potential temperature. Southern Hemisphere TPVs share many similar characteristics to those observed in the Northern Hemisphere, including longer summer lifetimes. The association of Southern Hemisphere TPVs and surface cyclone frequency is explored, and it appears that TPVs have a precursory role to surface cyclones, as seen in the Northern Hemisphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new version of the AWI Coupled Prediction System is developed based on the Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model v3.0. Both the ocean and the atmosphere models are upgraded or replaced, reducing the computation time by a factor of 5 at a given resolution. This allowed us to increase the ensemble size from 12 to 30, maintaining a similar resolution in both model components. The online coupled data assimilation scheme now additionally utilizes sea‐surface salinity and sea‐level anomaly as well as temperature and salinity profile observations. Results from the data assimilation demonstrate that the sea‐ice and ocean states are reasonably constrained. In particular, the temperature and salinity profile assimilation has mitigated systematic errors in the deeper ocean, although issues remain over polar regions where strong atmosphere‐ocean‐ice interaction occurs. One‐year‐long sea‐ice forecasts initialized on 1 January, 1 April, 1 July and 1 October from 2003 to 2019 are described. To correct systematic forecast errors, sea‐ice concentration from 2011 to 2019 is calibrated by trend‐adjusted quantile mapping using the preceding forecasts from 2003 to 2010. The sea‐ice edge raw forecast skill is within the range of operational global subseasonal‐to‐seasonal forecast systems, outperforming a climatological benchmark for about 2 weeks in the Arctic and about 3 weeks in the Antarctic. The calibration is much more effective in the Arctic: Calibrated sea‐ice edge forecasts outperform climatology for about 45 days in the Arctic but only 27 days in the Antarctic. Both the raw and the calibrated forecast skill exhibit strong seasonal variations. Plain Language Summary: Ocean data sparseness and systematic model errors pose problems for the initialization of coupled seasonal forecasts, especially in polar regions. Our global forecast system follows a seamless approach with refined ocean resolution in the Arctic. The new version presented here features higher computational efficiency and utilizes more ocean and sea‐ice observations. Ice‐edge forecasts outperform a climatological benchmark for about 1 month, comparable to established systems. Key Points: We describe an upgrade of the AWI Coupled Prediction System with new ocean and atmosphere models and more observations assimilatedIndependent evaluations show advances in the new version on the analysis of the sea‐ice and ocean states against the old oneCalibrated sea‐ice edge forecasts outperform a climatological benchmark for around 1 month in both hemispheres [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ECOSMO II is a fully coupled bio-physical model of 3D hydrodynamics with an intermediate-complexity NPZD (nutrient, phytoplankton, zooplankton, detritus) type biology including sediment-water column exchange processes originally formulated for the North Sea and Baltic Sea. Here we present an updated version of the model incorporating chlorophyll a as a prognostic state variable: ECOSMO II(CHL). The version presented here is online coupled to the HYCOM ocean model. The model is intended to be used for regional configurations for the North Atlantic and the Arctic incorporating coarse to high spatial resolutions for hind-casting and operational purposes. We provide the full descriptions of the changes in ECOSMO II(CHL) from ECOSMO II and provide the evaluation for the inorganic nutrients and chlorophyll a variables, present the modelled biogeochemistry of the Nordic Seas and the Arctic, and experiment on various parameterization sets as use cases targeting chlorophyll a dynamics. We document the performance of each parameter set objectively analysing the experiments against in situ, satellite and climatology data. The model evaluations for each experiment demonstrated that the simulations are consistent with the large-scale climatological nutrient setting and are capable of representing regional and seasonal changes. Explicitly resolving chlorophyll a allows for more dynamic seasonal and vertical variations in phytoplankton biomass to chlorophyll a ratio and improves model chlorophyll a performance near the surface. Through experimenting with the model performance, we document the general biogeochemisty of the Nordic Seas and the Arctic. The Norwegian and Barents seas primary production show distinct seasonal patterns with a pronounced spring bloom dominated by diatoms and low biomass during winter months. The Norwegian Sea annual primary production is around double that of the Barents Sea while also having an earlier spring bloom. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present an Arctic aerosol optical depth (AOD) climatology and trend analysis for 2003–2019 spring and summertime periods derived from a combination of multi-agency aerosol reanalyses, remote-sensing retrievals, and ground observations. This includes the U.S. Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System ReAnalysis version 1 (NAAPS-RA v1), the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), and the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service ReAnalysis (CAMSRA). Spaceborne remote-sensing retrievals of AOD are considered from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR), and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). Ground-based data include sun photometer data from AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) sites and oceanic Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN) measurements. Aerosol reanalysis AODs and spaceborne retrievals show consistent climatological spatial patterns and trends for both spring and summer seasons over the lower Arctic (60–70 ∘ N). Consistent AOD trends are also found for the high Arctic (north of 70 ∘ N) from reanalyses. The aerosol reanalyses yield more consistent AOD results than climate models, can be verified well with AERONET, and corroborate complementary climatological and trend analysis. Speciated AODs are more variable than total AOD among the three reanalyses and a little more so for March–May (MAM) than for June–August (JJA). Black carbon (BC) AOD in the Arctic comes predominantly from biomass burning (BB) sources in both MAM and JJA, and BB overwhelms anthropogenic sources in JJA for the study period. AOD exhibits a multi-year negative MAM trend and a positive JJA trend in the Arctic during 2003–2019, due to an overall decrease in sulfate/anthropogenic pollution and a significant JJA increase in BB smoke. Interannual Arctic AOD variability is significantly large, driven by fine-mode and, specifically, BB smoke, with both smoke contribution and interannual variation larger in JJA than in MAM. It is recommended that climate models should account for BB emissions and BB interannual variabilities and trends in Arctic climate change studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study is the first attempt to assess the role of climatic predictors in the rise of COVID-19 intensity in the Russian climatic region. The study used the Random Forest algorithm to understand the underlying associations and monthly scenarios. The results show that temperature seasonality (29.2 ± 0.9%) has the highest contribution for COVID-19 transmission in the humid continental region. In comparison, the diurnal temperature range (26.8 ± 0.4%) and temperature seasonality (14.6 ± 0.8%) had the highest impacts in the sub-arctic region. Our results also show that September and October have favorable climatic conditions for the COVID-19 spread in the sub-arctic and humid continental regions, respectively. From June to August, the high favorable zone for the spread of the disease will shift towards the sub-arctic region from the humid continental region. The study suggests that the government should implement strict measures for these months to prevent the second wave of COVID-19 outbreak in Russia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Attribution of extreme events is a challenging science and one that is currently undergoing considerable evolution. In this paper are 19 analyses by 18 different research groups, often using quite different methodologies, of 12 extreme events that occurred in 2012. In addition to investigating the causes of these extreme events, the multiple analyses of four of the events, the high temperatures in the United States, the record low levels of Arctic sea ice, and the heavy rain in northern Europe and eastern Australia, provide an opportunity to compare and contrast the strengths and weaknesses of the various methodologies. The differences also provide insights into the structural uncertainty of event attribution, that is, the uncertainty that arises directly from the differences in analysis methodology. In these cases, there was considerable agreement between the different assessments of the same event. However, different events had very different causes. Approximately half the analyses found some evidence that anthropogenically caused climate change was a contributing factor to the extreme event examined, though the effects of natural fluctuations of weather and climate on the evolution of many of the extreme events played key roles as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pithan and Mauritsen argue that the 2009 results of Boé et al. are not consistent with current understanding of the lapse-rate feedback in the Arctic. They also argue that these results arise to an important extent from self-correlation issues. In this response, the authors argue that their results are not inconsistent with current understanding of lapse-rate feedback and demonstrate that the conclusions remain unchanged when all possibilities of self-correlation are excluded. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although snow depth on sea ice is a key parameter for sea ice thickness (SIT) retrieval, there currently does not exist reliable estimations. In the Arctic, nearly all SIT products use a snow depth climatology (the modified Warren-99 climatology, W99m) constructed from in situ data obtained prior to the first significant impacts of climate change. In the Antarctic, the lack of information on snow depth remains a major obstacle in the development of reliable SIT products. In this study, we present the latest version of the altimetric snow depth (ASD) product computed over both hemispheres from the difference of the radar penetration into the snow pack between the Ka-band frequency SARAL/Altika and the Ku-band frequency CryoSat-2. The ASD solution is compared against a wide range of snow depth products including model data (Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modelling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) or its equivalent in the Antarctic the Global Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (GIOMAS), the MERCATOR model, and NASA's Eulerian Snow On Sea Ice Model (NESOSIM, only in the Arctic)), the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-2 (AMSR2) passive radiometer data, and the Dual-altimeter Snow Thickness (DuST) Ka–Ku product (only in the Arctic). The ASD product is further validated in the Arctic against the ice mass balance (IMB) buoys, the CryoSat Validation Experiment (CryoVEx) and Operation Ice Bridge's (OIB) airborne measurements. These comparisons demonstrate that ASD is a relevant snow depth solution, with spatiotemporal patterns consistent with those of the alternative Ka–Ku DuST product but with a mean bias of about 6.5 cm. We also demonstrate that ASD is consistent with the validation data: comparisons with OIB's airborne snow radar in the Arctic during the period of 2014–2018 show a correlation of 0.66 and a RMSE of about 6 cm. Furthermore, a first-guess monthly climatology has been constructed in the Arctic from the ASD product, which shows a good agreement with OIB during 2009–2012. This climatology is shown to provide a better solution than the W99m climatology when compared with validation data. Finally, we have characterised the SIT uncertainty due to the snow depth from an ensemble of SIT solutions computed for the Arctic by using the different snow depth products previously used in the comparison with the ASD product. During the period of 2013–2019, we found a spatially averaged SIT mean standard deviation of 20 cm. Deviations between SIT estimations due to snow depths can reach up to 77 cm. Using the ASD data instead of W99m to estimate SIT over this time period leads to a reduction in the average SIT of about 30 cm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The lidar and radar profiling capabilities of the CloudSat and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder (CALIPSO) satellites provide opportunities to improve the characterization of cloud properties. An Arctic cloud climatology based on their observations may be fundamentally different from earlier Arctic cloud climatologies based on passive satellite observations, which have limited contrast between the cloud and underlying surface. Specifically, the Radar–Lidar Geometrical Profile product (RL-GEOPROF) provides cloud vertical profiles from the combination of active lidar and radar. Based on this data product for the period July 2006 to March 2011, this paper presents a new cloud macrophysical property characteristic analysis for the Arctic, including cloud occurrence fraction (COF), vertical distributions, and probability density functions (PDF) of cloud base and top heights. Seasonal mean COF shows maximum values in autumn, minimum values in winter, and moderate values in spring and summer; this seasonality is more prominent over the Arctic Ocean on the Pacific side. The mean ratios of multi-layer cloud to total cloud over the ocean and land are between 24% and 28%. Low-level COFs are higher over ocean than over land. The ratio of low-level cloud to total cloud is also higher over ocean. Middle-level and high-level COFs are smaller over ocean than over land except in summer, and the ratios of middle-level and high-level clouds to total cloud are also smaller over ocean. Over the central Arctic Ocean, PDFs of cloud top height and cloud bottom height show (1) two cloud top height PDF peaks, one for cloud top heights lower than 1200m and another between 7 and 9km; and (2) high frequency for cloud base below 1000m with the majority of cloud base heights lower than 2000m. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The paper presents results of morphoscopic studies of quartz grains recovered from sands underlying surficial peat over the West Siberian Plain. The field materials were collected in the course of the Russian–American expedition in 1999–2001. The data obtained proved the existence of a vast area in West Siberia similar to cold deserts in appearance at the late glacial time (and probably even as early as the Last Glacial Maximum – 18–20 ka BP). The desert was confined to the arctic and temperate belts, the southernmost part of the plain being an area of loess accumulation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Progressive glacier thinning, retreat and mass loss in the High-Arctic is increasingly exposing forefield sediments to processes of mobilisation and redistribution. In this paper, we quantify forefield sediment redistribution at Midtre Lovénbreen, Svalbard, using repeat light detection and ranging (lidar) surveys conducted in 2003 and 2005 in combination with field-based observations. Average surface lowering of the forefield over the observation period identified from lidar surveys is −0.05ma−1; and two primary areas of sediment reworking are identified: active fluvial incision of proglacial streams by ~2m and lateral moraine downwasting of similar magnitude. Multivariate analysis of fluvial and climatological field data indicates that observed forefield sediment mobilisation is driven primarily by discharge forcing, but with contributions from thermoerosive processes and stochastic, autogenic sediment supply. During the period of observation, disparity between sediment loss in forefield fluvial systems as calculated from lidar data (3000–4000×103 kg) and monitoring of fluvial sediment load (1600–3500×103 kg) suggests the likely presence of significant quantities of buried ice beneath a thick debris mantle, as evidenced by field observations. Relatively uniform lowering of the moraine crest identified from our repeat lidar surveys indicates thermoerosion of an ice core. However, simple debris layer thickness modelling indicates an increase in variation of debris layer thickness at lower elevations, providing support for the assertion that moraine disintegration is driven by complex combinations of both thermal and mechanical processes. This study demonstrates the viability of using lidar in conjunction with field monitoring to better understand sedimentary deglaciation dynamics and processes, and also highlights the significance of forefield areas in controlling the sediment yield from deglaciating catchments. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: Concern has been expressed regarding the impacts of climate change on freshwater aquatic ecosystems in arctic regions. Populated with lakes controlled by flooding from spring break-up ice jams, arctic deltas such as the Mackenzie Delta in northern Canada are particularly sensitive to changing ice break-up conditions and the hydroclimatic controls on break-up and ice-jam flooding. An understanding of these controls is necessary for assessing future climate change effects. This paper presents an assessment of hydroclimatic conditions controlling break-up over the period 1974–2006, with a focus on extreme flood events. Both the upstream driving force, capturing elements of the spring discharge hydrograph, and the downstream resistance force, describing the competence of the downstream ice cover, were quantified with reference to the Mackenzie River at Arctic Red River hydrometric station such that the contribution of each to the severity and timing of break-up could be explored. Results show that the severity of peak break-up stage is most influenced by upstream discharge and the balance between upstream and downstream melt, while timing is related to delta ice conditions and the rise of the spring hydrograph. The highest peak stage events require a rapid rise in discharge and high peak discharge. Minimal downstream melting degree-days and greater ice thickness are also important, although no relationship of these appears to control the level of backwater produced from broken ice and ice jamming effects. The pattern of rapid (protracted) upstream melt and lower (higher) intensity melt in the delta characterizes the highest (lowest) break-up events. For the most severe events, upstream forces are important in controlling discharge-driven events, while an altered hydrologic response occurring for ice-driven events was noted, meriting future examination. Finally, trends toward a longer prebreak-up melt interval, lower peak discharge, rate of rise in discharge, and ice thickness, and higher freeze-up stage were observed, with greater variability of these controls and break-up severity in the most recent decade. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper argues that indigenous peoples'' responses to climate change are better understood in relation to emerging notions of citizenship than to climate change crisis narratives. The latter, like development narratives, are often used to license the intervention of experts in debates about resource management and conservation. Dominant climate change narratives about the Arctic emphasise the power of global climate systems to threaten northern communities by situating them as being intrinsically ‘at risk’. These narratives envisage Arctic citizenship within very narrow parameters which have largely masked the voices of northern citizens. Definitions of ecosystem resilience, while providing a framework for comparing disparate cultural and ecological contexts, are predicated on avoiding systemic collapse. It is argued that such definitions heighten the sense of risk implicit in climate change impacts. This may ultimately impede the development of different aspects of civic participation by northern citizens with climate change policy opportunities. Policy responses across a range of diverse geographical contexts require new narratives that put communities back into the calculus of risk and decision-making. One way to be more critical about the language of climate change narratives is to evaluate the extent to which they can account for, and mitigate, growing inequalities of power and wealth. Studies in the historical reception of science narratives are proposed as a better approach for making grounded comparisons of the discursive strategies with which climate change narratives are made to work. This also helps to bridge discussions of climate change across regions like the Arctic and Africa, which share much in common, but are too often studied in isolation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In a warming climate, permafrost is likely to be significantly reduced and eventually disappear from the sub-Arctic region. This will affect people at a range of scales, from locally by slumping of buildings and roads, to globally as melting of permafrost will most likely increase the emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas methane, which will further enhance global warming. In order to predict future changes in permafrost, it is crucial to understand what determines the presence or absence of permafrost under current climate conditions, to assess where permafrost is particularly vulnerable to climate change, and to identify where changes are already occurring. The Torneträsk region of northern sub-Arctic Sweden is one area where changes in permafrost have been recorded and where permafrost could be particularly vulnerable to any future climate changes. This paper therefore reviews the various physical, biological, and anthropogenic parameters that determine the presence or absence of permafrost in the Torneträsk region under current climate conditions, so that we can gain an understanding of its current vulnerability and potential future responses to climate change. A patchy permafrost distribution as found in the Torneträsk region is not random, but a consequence of site-specific factors that control the microclimate and hence the surface and subsurface temperature. It is also a product of past as well as current processes. In sub-Arctic areas such as northern Sweden, it is mainly the physical parameters, e.g., topography, soil type, and climate (in particular snow depth), that determine permafrost distribution. Even though humans have been present in the study area for centuries, their impacts on permafrost distribution can more or less be neglected at the catchment level. Because ongoing climate warming is projected to continue and lead to an increased snow cover, the permafrost in the region will most likely disappear within decades, at least at lower elevations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]