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In his paper in Climate Monitor, TML Wigley uses basic probability arguments to illustrate how a slowly changing climate could potentially affect the frequency of extreme events. In the time since the paper appeared, there has been increased interest in assessing how weather extremes may be altered by climate change. Much of the work has been conducted using extreme value analysis, which is the branch of statistics developed specifically to characterize extreme events. This commentary discusses the advantages of an EVA approach and reviews some EVA techniques that have been used to describe climate change’s potential impact on extreme phenomena. Additionally, this commentary illustrates basic EVA techniques in an analysis of temperatures for central England. In parallel to Wigley’s analysis, a time-varying EVA analysis is compared to a stationary one, and furthermore, the trend from the EVA analysis is compared to the trend in means. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extreme conditions of the summer season in 2018 in England gave rise to comparisons with earlier drought events. Using the information provided by documentary records, such as chronicles, accounts and diaries, this paper investigates extreme summer droughts in the period 1200–1700, and their impacts under the conditions of natural climate variability and before the provision of modern infrastructure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change adaptation presents particular challenges in urban areas, where historic and current investment in fixed stock and infrastructure might constrain adaptation. This paper explores how two elements of adaptive capacity - building that capacity and delivering adaptation actions - are likely to be constrained by wider social and economic factors affecting urban societies. Public open space in urban areas, although having a vital role to play under conditions of climate change, is already a contested policy area. Using the field of outdoor thermal comfort as an example of current adaptive behaviour, the paper reports on a study that examined the perceptions of thermal comfort of different users of public spaces in Manchester. It considers the implications of climate change scenarios for the ability to maintain thermal comfort in open spaces and examines the scope for physical intervention, such as through urban and built form design, to build adaptive capacity. However, it also explores possible scenarios of urban life under conditions of climate change and concludes that socio-economic determinants of access to and management of open space are likely to be of critical significance in delivering adaptation options, which are accessible to all and meet objectives of social justice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the problems of flood risk management in the context of public and private insurance. It demonstrates the important role of insurance in reducing flood risk with examples from the U.K. and France. It includes a brief description of the summer 2007 floods in England.The Geneva Papers (2008) 33, 117–132. doi:10.1057/palgrave.gpp.2510151 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper asserts that three principal frameworks for climate change adaptation can be recognised in the literature: scenario-led (SL), vulnerability-led (VL) and decisioncentric (DC) frameworks. A criterion is developed to differentiate these frameworks in recent adaptation projects. The criterion features six key hallmarks as follows: (1) use of climate model information; (2) analysis of metrics/units; (3) socio-economic knowledge; (4) stakeholder engagement; (5) adaptation of implementation mechanisms; (6) tier of adaptation implementation. The paper then tests the validity of this approach using adaptation projects on the Suffolk coast, UK. Fourteen adaptation plans were identified in an online survey. They were analysed in relation to the hallmarks outlined above and assigned to an adaptation framework. The results show that while some adaptation plans are primarily SL, VL or DC, the majority are hybrid, showing a mixture of DC/VL and DC/SL characteristics. Interestingly, the SL/VL combination is not observed, perhaps because the DC framework is intermediate and attempts to overcome weaknesses of both SL and VL approaches. The majority (57 %) of adaptation projects generated a risk assessment or advice notes. Further development of this type of framework analysis would allow better guidance on approaches for organisations when implementing climate change adaptation initiatives, and other similar proactive long-term planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we show how a seemingly unremarkable object - a cattle grid - has come to presence climate change in partial and contingent ways on the Lizard Peninsula, Cornwall, UK. We identify the cattle grid as an 'anticipatory object' through which conservation organisations seek to manage the future and adapt to climate change, but which at the same time presences that unthought-of future for others in the landscape. We explore the ways in which the cattle grid acts to presence something that is not only absent - climate change - but has uncertain imminence. We investigate the ways in which the cattle grid make climate relevant as an embodied and experiential process, a physical and intellectual artefact, and the means to imagine climate and the ways it might change. Drawing upon interpretative approaches informed by theorisations of materiality, presence and absence to understand climate change as a social phenomenon, we go beyond a consideration of this ordinary object defined by its function to consider how the object is experienced, the processes and practices through which people relate to it, and the ways in which social meaning accumulates around it. The empirical basis for this argument is provided by in-depth interviews with local representatives of Natural England, residents and farmers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is already having impacts on biodiversity within Europe, with habitats and species needing to change and adapt to rising global temperatures and shifts in bio-climatic zones. Spatial planning represents an important intervention to further European, national and local biodiversity objectives for climate change adaptation. Drawing on case-studies of plans for inland and coastal areas, and involving stakeholder workshops, this paper reports on a trans-national study examining the scope of spatial plans in the Netherlands, England and France in addressing the impact of climate change. It concludes that spatial planning is making provision for biodiversity and dynamic natural processes. However, while good practice in planning for biodiversity under conditions of climate change is developing, systematic use is not being made of available procedures. The paper examines some of the barriers to implementation of this new policy commitment to climate change adaptation. Recommendations are made covering policy development to include climate change impacts upon biodiversity, modified procedures for plan-making and the appraisal of plans and projects. Amongst the specific measures recommended are the climate-proofing of projects and plans through the use of EIA and SEA; the integration of plans through adoption of common objectives and review of time horizons and boundaries; and an ecosystem-based planning approach. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes an assessment of the ways in which water supply companies in England and Wales are adapting to climate change, evaluated in the context of a model of the adaptation process. The four components of the model are (i) awareness of and concern about the potential impacts of climate change, (ii) adaptation strategy, (iii) the concept of an adaptation space from which options are selected, and (iv) the notion that three groups of factors influence awareness, strategy and option selection: susceptibility to change, internal characteristics of the organisation, and regulatory and market context. Public water supply in England and Wales is provided by private sector companies, subject to environmental and economic regulation. Hydrological simulations suggest that climate change has the potential to reduce the reliability of supply sources over the next few decades. The industry in December 2004 completed a review of investment requirements over the next five years. Awareness of climate change is high in the water industry, but by developing assessment procedures and incorporating them into the investment review the regulators forced companies to consider explicitly the potential impacts of climate change in a consistent and rigorous manner. These analyses combined climate change with other pressures on water resources, and in practice companies did not attribute specific investment decisions or proposals to climate change or indeed any other individual drivers. The broad strategy adopted by all water supply companies - to maintain standards of service - is determined by regulatory controls and market considerations, but the degree of concern about the impacts of climate change and precise adaptation options necessary to address supply-demand imbalances varied between water supply companies, reflecting local geographic conditions. The water supply companies and regulators have different perspectives on the relative merits of supply-side and demand-side measures, reflecting different organisational priorities. The 2004 investment review determined that no specific actions were necessary to deal with future climate change, but that measures set in place - in terms of methodologies and investment in investigations into specific resource developments - provided a sound foundation for more specific actions in the next investment review in five years time. The paper concludes by summarising the factors assisting and constraining adaptation over the next few decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a new 300-year daily series of Mean Sea-Level Pressure (MSLP) for the city of London. Daily barometer readings recorded in the vicinity of London were digitised from several sources and by joining these data with previously available data, a near-continuous series was constructed to span the period 1692-2007. The data were quality controlled and then corrected to represent daily means of MSLP at standard modern-day conditions. This series was then subjected to a statistical homogenisation procedure. The Penalized Maximal t-test was used with several reference series to identify breakpoints in the series over the period 1780-2007. In the absence of suitable reference series, the homogeneity of the earlier 1692-1779 period was tested using the Penalized Maximal F-test. Both tests were implemented through the RHtestV2 software on the monthly and annual means derived from the daily data. The majority of the identified breakpoints could be supported by meta-data and most occur at the juncture of the component series. A major feature of the homogenised series is that the long-term mean is 1.2 hPa lower than that of the previous monthly series for London created under the EU ADVICE project for the period 1774-1999. The long-term mean of 1015.2 hPa for the new series is more consistent with other long MSLP series in the UK. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme weather events can have severe consequences for the local environment and population. Projected future changes in climate (e.g. UKCP09) indicate that North West England is likely to experience an increasing frequency and intensity of meteorological extremes, leading to flooding, heat waves and storms. Consequently, it is important that the region enhances its preparedness for such events. This paper explores the possibility of developing quantifiable climate risk indices for the case study area of Greater Manchester, using a combination of archival research and statistical analysis of past climate data. For extremes which are the function of a single meteorological variable (e.g. heat waves, pluvial flooding and heavy snowfall) the thresholds proved to be reliable and skillful. Days with maximum daily temperature greater than or equal to 29.2 °C, daily snowfall amount greater than or equal to 6 cm or maximum gust speed greater than or equal to 60 knots are found to be indicative of weather-related impacts which have in the past affected human health/well-being, have caused damage to the urban infrastructure or have severely disrupted services. Extreme events which are the result of a more complex interaction between variables (e.g. drought, freezing conditions) were less well captured by applying the thresholds associated with a single variable in isolation. Such critical threshold indices can be used in conjunction with future projections of climate change to establish weather-related risk for the future. This risk-based approach can subsequently be integrated to climate change adaptation strategies and development planning to ensure future preparedness. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Winter weather can be a significant cause of road traffic accidents. This paper uses UKCIP climate change scenarios and a temporal analogue to investigate the relationship between temperature and severe road accidents in the West Midlands, UK. This approach also allows quantification of the changes in the severity of the winter season over the next century in the region. It is demonstrated that the predicted reduction in the number of frost days should in turn reduce the number of road accidents caused due to slipperiness by approximately 50%. However, the paper concludes by warning against complacency in winter maintenance regimes. A warmer climate may result in budget cuts for highway maintenance which in turn may well reverse declining accident trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes numerical experiments using a climate--storm surge simulation system for the coast of the United Kingdom, with a particular focus on the southern North Sea and the Thames estuary in southeastern England. Time series of surges simulated in the southern North Sea by a surge model driven by atmospheric data from a regional climate model and surges simulated by the same surge model driven by atmospheric data from a global climate model are compared. A strong correspondence is demonstrated, and a linear scaling factor relating them is derived. This factor varies slowly with location. Around the Thames estuary, extreme surges are compared in the same way, and the linear scaling factor for the extremes is found to be similar to that for the full time series. The authors therefore assert that in seeking significant trends in surge at this location using this model arrangement, the regional model downscaling stage could be avoided, if observations were used to establish a suitable scaling factor for each location. The influence of the tide--surge phase relationship is investigated, and extreme sea levels at the mouth of the River Thames from regional-model-driven simulations are compared to the extreme event of 1953. Although the simulated levels are slightly lower, they are found to be comparable given the observational uncertainty. The assumption that time-mean sea level changes can be added linearly to surge changes is investigated at this location for large changes in time-mean sea level. The authors find that the primary effect of such an increase is on the speed of propagation of tide and surge, supporting the case for a simple linear addition of mean and extreme sea level changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the uncertainty in the impact of climate change on flood frequency in England, through the use of continuous simulation of river flows. Six different sources of uncertainty are discussed: future greenhouse gas emissions; Global Climate Model (GCM) structure; downscaling from GCMs (including Regional Climate Model structure); hydrological model structure; hydrological model parameters and the internal variability of the climate system (sampled by applying different GCM initial conditions). These sources of uncertainty are demonstrated (separately) for two example catchments in England, by propagation through to flood frequency impact. The results suggest that uncertainty from GCM structure is by far the largest source of uncertainty. However, this is due to the extremely large increases in winter rainfall predicted by one of the five GCMs used. Other sources of uncertainty become more significant if the results from this GCM are omitted, although uncertainty from sources relating to modelling of the future climate is generally still larger than that relating to emissions or hydrological modelling. It is also shown that understanding current and future natural variability is critical in assessing the importance of climate change impacts on hydrology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper reports the results of a series of parametric and correlation studies that have been conducted on a longwall coal district climatic prediction planning model developed at the University of Nottingham. The results of these simulation exercises have been correlated against continuously recorded climatic survey data collected from longwall coal districts at two representative deep UK coal mines. The survey data used was continuously measured to record the climate across the longwall districts during both weekday production periods and weekend non-production periods. An analysis of the measured data was able to establish average dry and wet bulb temperatures, which characterised the climate within the workings during weekday production and weekend non-production periods. To determine the major contribution that the geothermal properties of the surrounding rock mass have on the heat transfer to the ventilating air stream, a series of climatic simulation and correlation exercises were conducted to establish a base line data set for these parameters during non-production periods. A second series of parametric and correlation exercises were conducted on the longwall climatic simulation model to identify the range of values to be taken by the parameters governing the contribution of heat transfer from the installed electrical machinery and cut mineral during the weekday production periods. It is concluded that these exercises were able to identify a base set of values for the model input parameters that enabled the longwall climatic models to satisfactorily replicate the climatic conditions experienced across two representative UK deep mine longwall districts during production and non-production periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice clouds are an important yet largely unvalidated component of weather forecasting and climate models, but radar offers the potential to provide the necessary data to evaluate them. First in this paper, coordinated aircraft in situ measurements and scans by a 3-GHz radar are presented, demonstrating that, for stratiform midlatitude ice clouds, radar reflectivity in the Rayleigh-scattering regime may be reliably calculated from aircraft size spectra if the “Brown and Francis” mass–size relationship is used. The comparisons spanned radar reflectivity values from -15 to +20 dBZ, ice water contents (IWCs) from 0.01 to 0.4 g m-3, and median volumetric diameters between 0.2 and 3 mm. In mixed-phase conditions the agreement is much poorer because of the higher-density ice particles present. A large midlatitude aircraft dataset is then used to derive expressions that relate radar reflectivity and temperature to ice water content and visible extinction coefficient. The analysis is an advance over previous work in several ways: the retrievals vary smoothly with both input parameters, different relationships are derived for the common radar frequencies of 3, 35, and 94 GHz, and the problem of retrieving the long-term mean and the horizontal variance of ice cloud parameters is considered separately. It is shown that the dependence on temperature arises because of the temperature dependence of the number concentration “intercept parameter” rather than mean particle size. A comparison is presented of ice water content derived from scanning 3-GHz radar with the values held in the Met Office mesoscale forecast model, for eight precipitating cases spanning 39 h over southern England. It is found that the model predicted mean IWC to within 10% of the observations at temperatures between -30° and -10°C but tended to underestimate it by around a factor of 2 at colder temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the progress that local authorities in England and Wales are making in adapting to the threat of climate change and taking action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The responses from surveys of local authorities in England and Wales carried out in 2000 (IDeA , Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions: survey of activities and initiatives by local authorities. (Questionnaire and results) Improvement and Development Agency, 2000 ) and 2002 (Allman et al., Climate Change: a survey of local authorities, Local Government Association, 2002) were compared. Progress in implementing the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) five-step methodology (ICLEI , Local Government Implementation of Climate Protection--report to the United Nations, International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives, 1997 ) was used to identify the 'successful' local authorities. The barriers faced by these authorities were then compared with those faced by the remaining local authorities . Most local authorities are not making substantial progress. However, a small number have successfully prepared greenhouse gas emissions inventories, developed strategies and implemented adaptation and greenhouse gas reduction measures. These successful authorities have made progress despite the fact that addressing climate change is not a legal requirement. Their success is due to three key factors. Firstly, they have recognised the secondary benefits of tackling climate change, e.g. potential employment, improved quality of life and reduction in fuel poverty. Secondly, they have the strong political, professional and technical support necessary to champion climate change activities. Finally, they have worked in partnership with utilities, private, public and voluntary groups to raise the finance needed to implement measures both to adapt to climate change and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The weight of scientific evidence suggests that human activities are noticeably influencing the world's climate. However, the effects of global climate change will be unevenly spread, due to local variations in vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Using downscaled projections of future UK climates over the next 50 years, this paper investigates the impacts of, and possible responses to, climate change in one small area in eastern England, selected as a test-bed for sustainable agriculture. It shows that local agricultural systems are vulnerable to changes in the climate. At present, however, these considerations have a limited effect on agricultural operations, which are mainly driven by short-term events and 'non-climate' policies, such as agricultural price support. The capacity of agricultural systems to adapt successfully to climate change will be determined by the ability of producers to integrate climate change into their planning strategies with a view to ultimately ensuring sustainable agricultural practices in the long term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A total lightning (cloud‐ground and cloud‐cloud) climatology of the UK and Ireland is presented combining three different ground‐based lightning location systems over a 12‐year period (2008–2019). The study area is divided into seven geographical regions using k‐means clustering to identify areas with distinctive seasonal distributions of lightning flashes per km2/year (referred to as flash density [FD]). Different regions exhibit contrasting summer thunderstorm seasons (e.g., from April to August in the southeast of England and May to July in southern England coastal regions). Summer FD peaks in July in the English Channel and southeast and midland areas of England range from 0.1 to 0.3 FD whilst the southern England coastal region sees FDs in the range 0.03–0.06 FD. Regions more prone to winter thunderstorms are identified as having northwest facing coastlines (<0.02 FD in Northwest Scotland). Diurnal lightning distributions are also shown to have regional dependence with stronger afternoon peaks over‐land (0.05–0.1 FD in the south of England), whilst in the South coastal and English Channel regions early morning or overnight peaks (0.03–0.09 FD) are more pronounced relative to afternoon FDs (0.015–0.03). This study has demonstrated the benefit of using multiple lightning detection networks to mitigate the effects of inhomogeneities within any one data source. It is also shown that significant additional insight comes from taking a regional approach to analysing temporal distributions of lightning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The peat moors of lowland Somerset contain a wealth of waterlogged archaeological sites, including some of the most significant prehistoric monuments in the country. There has been a long history of attempts to preserve archaeological sites In Situ and monitoring of the burial environment began in 1982. The monitoring has become more complex over time, but the results suggest the same continuing problem of a drop in the water table over the summer months across the whole landscape. With the sole exception of the portion of the Neolithic Sweet Track that benefits from an irrigation system, all the other known sites remain at risk of gradual destruction. The solutions must be found on a landscape scale using agri-environment payments to secure sustainable management of the peat resource. Unfortunately, short-term changes to these payments and long-term changes to the climate are likely to worsen the situation and eventually to require a more drastic solution to the problem. Evidence has been generated to support an ecosystems approach to sustainable peatland management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper traces the history, and current challenges, of climate science and urban design in Greater Manchester, UK. The Mancunian metropolis is a remarkable example of a ‘climatic city’, one that shapes its climate as much as it is shaped by it. From the efforts to control smoke and clear slums in the 19th century, to today’s race to be at the forefront of ‘green’ and ‘sustainable’ cities, climate is a central actor in Manchester’s history and will likely be so in the near future. We analyse the continuities and inflections of this history of climate science and urban planning in the metropolis by drawing on historical material and interviews with key local stakeholders, to understand the natural, social and political construction of this singular ‘industrial ecology’. Ultimately, we ask whether stakeholders in the Greater Manchester area can overcome existing challenges to go towards a greener, more resilient and sustainable city. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Irrigated agriculture is facing rising competition worldwide for access to reliable, low cost, high quality water. In England, farmers are under regulatory pressure to improve irrigation efficiency; indeed, demonstrating efficient water use is now a prerequisite for renewing an irrigation abstraction licence (permit). However, there are differences between the concepts of efficient water use as viewed by scientists, regulators and farmers, further confused by the overlap of similar terminology with both precise technical and wider less specific meanings. Most farmers’ concepts of water efficiency are linked to maximising the farms’ economic productivity rather than saving water per se, except perhaps when their own allocated resources may be inadequate. Using a financial criteria for water efficiency rather than an engineering one appears a sensible approach when assessing irrigation performance at the farm level, since any managerial (e.g. scheduling) and operational (e.g. equipment) inefficiencies associated with irrigation are implicitly included in the assessment. It also allows comparison between individual irrigators (benchmarking) and between different water sectors (e.g. agriculture, leisure, industry). However, estimating the direct financial benefits (value) of water to the farm is only part of the equation; assessing indirect economic benefits, such as the importance of irrigated production to the sustainability of rural communities is equally important, but much harder to achieve. Demonstrating efficient or ‘best’ use of water is not straightforward, but farmers and the water regulator need a rational approach that reflects the needs of the farming community whilst providing a policy framework for protecting the environment. This paper reviews the concept of irrigation efficiency in a temperate climate, considers the farmer perspectives, and supports using the ‘pathway to efficiency’ as a means to assist farmers and the water regulator in achieving better irrigation management and abstraction control. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Observations from space and in situ from the R.V. Corystes 8/03 Cruise show that a massive Karenia mikimotoi bloom occured during summer 2003 in the western English Channel. Due to exceptional climatoligical conditions that occured in June 2003, the installation of a very strong thermocline enhanced the development of a massive bloom over 1 millioncellsl−1 in the Central English Channel. This paper presents the application of a mathematical model of this species, previously developed in for the Bay of Biscay, into a general 3D model of the primary production of the English Channel and southern Bight of the North Sea. Allelopathic interactions exerted by K. mikimotoi on other phytoplankton species and the role of agitation in the mortality of this species are taken into account. The model includes the dynamics of the bloom and consequently reproduces with good agreement the geographical distribution of the K. mikimotoi bloom both surface and subsurface. The model suggests that the apparent transport of the bloom towards the French coasts as inferred from the satellite observation was not due to advection but was only caused by the establishment of suitable conditions. The sensivity of the K. mikimotoi distribution to boundary conditions, initialization and the role of turbulence is discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Correlations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with climate variables in continental Europe are strong but weak over Britain. This article presents evidence that interannual variations of British climate are explained more successfully by variations of the Icelandic Low (IL), the northern component of the NAO. The IL changes continuously in intensity as well as position, and these variations are not represented in the NAO. Monthly values of intensity and latitude and longitude positions for the IL are estimated from gridded sea level pressure data. These are used to analyse their impact on interannual variations of winter precipitation and temperature over Britain for the period 1981–2014. It is found that the primary influence on the interannual variations of winter precipitation over Britain are the pressure and the longitude position of the IL. When the IL is deeper or situated east of its mean location, there is above normal precipitation over Britain. The primary influence on air temperature is the meridional migration of the IL; it is warmer when the IL is situated north of its mean position. The impact of the IL on precipitation and air temperature are evaluated also for Scotland, North England and South England separately. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

British pre-industrial economic growth has traditionally been analysed from the Malthusian point of view and other more optimistic approaches, but in many cases, ignoring environmental factors. This article explores the inclusion of the climate in this general debate, focusing on one of the colder periods of the last 500 years, known as the Maunder Minimum. The provisional results suggest that climate change and the resulting adaptations may have influenced the start of the English Agricultural Revolution, the Energy Transition and the European Divergence. However, from an econometric point of view these results are not fully conclusive, making it necessary to continue working with better primary sources and other alternative methodologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyses the relationship between prison moral and social climate and reoffending. It relates data from the measuring the quality of prison life (MQPL) survey carried out in all prisons in England and Wales to official data on proven reoffending from the Ministry of Justice. The sample contains data from 224 prison surveys conducted between 2009 and 2013 (a total of 24,508 prisoners completed the survey). Results indicate that several of the MQPL dimensions were found to be related to rates of proven reoffending for each prison. As the MQPL survey measures the moral, relational and organizational quality of prison life for prisoners, overall these findings suggest that higher moral quality of life, or higher interior legitimacy, supports better outcomes for prisoners on release. This is consistent with theoretical expectations about the links between legitimacy, engagement in prison programs, well-being, and compliance with the law. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The aim of the study was to measure the effect of colder winters compared to warmer winters on hospital admission rates in Suffolk County. Methods The setting of this study was Suffolk County in eastern England. The period of the study was financial years 2003/04–2012/13. The study was an analytic ecological study. Analysis involved calculation of rate ratios of hospital admission rates in colder winters compared to warmer winters, in all persons and the elderly. Results The main finding of the study was that all rate ratios for hospital admission rates in colder winters compared to warmer winters were significantly raised with effects of 2–5%. Rate ratios for all admissions in persons of all ages and persons aged 65 years and over were, respectively, 1.02 (99% confidence interval (CI): 1.01, 1.03; P < 0.001) and 1.02 (99% CI: 1.01, 1.04; P < 0.001). Rate ratios for emergency admissions in persons of all ages and persons aged 65 years and over were, respectively, 1.05 (99% CI: 1.03, 1.06; P < 0.001) and 1.04 (99% CI: 1.01, 1.06; P < 0.001). Conclusion In Suffolk County, hospital admission rates are significantly raised in colder winters compared to warmer winters. This evidence may be useful in planning hospital services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Marine Isotope Stage 11 (MIS 11) is considered one of the best analogues for the Holocene. In the UK the long lacustrine sequence at Marks Tey, Essex, spans the entirety of the Hoxnian interglacial, the British correlative of MIS 11c. We present multiproxy evidence from a new 18.5-m core from this sequence. Lithostratigraphy, pollen stratigraphy and biomarker evidence indicate that these sediments span the pre-, early and late temperate intervals of this interglacial as well as cold climate sediments that post-date the Hoxnian. The δ18O signal of endogenic carbonate from this sequence produces several clear patterns that are interpreted as reflecting the climatic structure of the interglacial. As well as providing evidence for long-term climate stability during the interglacial and a major post-Hoxnian stadial/interstadial oscillation the δ18O signal provides strong evidence for abrupt cooling events during the interglacial itself. One of these isotopic events occurs in association with a short-lived increase in non-arboreal pollen (the NAP phase). The results presented here are discussed in the context of other MIS 11 records from Europe and the North Atlantic, particularly with respect to our understanding of the occurrence of abrupt climatic events in pre-Holocene interglacials. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Quaternary Science Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Rates of active travel vary by socio-economic position, with higher rates generally observed among less affluent populations. Aspects of both social and built environments have been shown to affect active travel, but little research has explored the influence of physical environmental characteristics, and less has examined whether physical environment affects socio-economic inequality in active travel. This study explored income-related differences in active travel in relation to multiple physical environmental characteristics including air pollution, climate and levels of green space, in urban areas across England. We hypothesised that any gradient in the relationship between income and active travel would be least pronounced in the least physically environmentally-deprived areas where higher income populations may be more likely to choose active transport as a means of travel. Methods: Adults aged 16+ living in urban areas (n = 20,146) were selected from the 2002 and 2003 waves of the UK National Travel Survey. The mode of all short non-recreational trips undertaken by the sample was identified (n = 205,673). Three-level binary logistic regression models were used to explore how associations between the trip being active (by bike/walking) and three income groups, varied by level of multiple physical environmental deprivation. Results: Likelihood of making an active trip among the lowest income group appeared unaffected by physical environmental deprivation; 15.4% of their non-recreational trips were active in both the least and most environmentally-deprived areas. The income-related gradient in making active trips remained steep in the least environmentally-deprived areas because those in the highest income groups were markedly less likely to choose active travel when physical environment was 'good', compared to those on the lowest incomes (OR = 0.44, 95% O = 0.22 to 0.89). Conclusions: The socio-economic gradient in active travel seems independent of physical environmental characteristics. Whilst more affluent populations enjoy advantages on some health outcomes, they will still benefit from increasing their levels of physical activity through active travel. Benefits of active travel to the whole community would include reduced vehicle emissions, reduced carbon consumption, the preservation or enhancement of infrastructure and the presentation of a 'normalised' behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports on regional climates and weather in South West England and the Channel Islands. It mentions that the South West area of the country is considered a suitable location to live in which attracted 15 million visitors annually. An overview of its yearly temperature range is also presented.

Climate change debates seldom link the insights derived from the physical sciences to the concerns of social scientists. Understanding how failures in built infrastructures increase the caring burden on women is one of these instances. This article draws on a pilot study on climate change and older people to demonstrate that women who provide informal care services are called upon to fill the gap between declining levels of formal care provisions and care needs when the infrastructures serving a community fail. This research challenges policymakers, emergency planners, and practitioners to think about the increased care burdens that women are expected to undertake during disasters involving extreme weather events like heat waves, cold snaps, and flooding, and reconsider policies that pass this responsibility down to the level of community without the necessary support services and built infrastructures being in place. This issue acquires additional urgency in the context of declining levels of care being publicly funded through the age of austerity as public expenditure cuts begin to bite. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperate grassland ecosystems face a future of precipitation change, which can alter community composition and ecosystem functions through reduced soil moisture and waterlogging. There is evidence that functionally diverse plant communities contain a wider range of water use and resource capture strategies, resulting in greater resistance of ecosystem function to precipitation change. To investigate this interaction between composition and precipitation change we performed a field experiment for three years in successional grassland in southern England. This consisted of two treatments. The first, precipitation change, simulated end of century predictions, and consisted of a summer drought phase alongside winter rainfall addition. The second, functional group identity, divided the plant community into three groups based on their functional traits- broadly described as perennials, caespitose grasses and annuals- and removed these groups in a factorial design. Ecosystem functions related to C, N and water cycling were measured regularly. Effects of functional groupidentity were apparent, with the dominant trend being that process rates were higher under control conditions where a range of perennial species were present. E.g. litter decomposition rates were significantly higher in plots containing several perennial species, the group with the highest average leaf N content. Process rates were also very strongly affected by the precipitation change treatmentwhen perennial plant species were dominant, but not where the community contained a high abundance of annual species and caespitose grasses. This contrasting response could be attributable to differing rooting patterns (shallower structures under annual plants, and deeper roots under perennials) and faster nutrient uptake in annuals compared to perennials. Our results indicate that precipitation change will have a smaller effect on key process rates in grasslandscontaining a range of perennial and annual species, and that maintaining the presence of key functional groups should be a crucial consideration in future grassland management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines whether Tim Ingold's concept of the 'weather-world' can be applied within discussions of climate in archaeology. Using a case study of eighteenth century Cumbria, the article first looks at the issues arising when environmental models are used to investigate landscape change. It then assesses the insights on landscape, weather and farming that can be gained from two historical diaries. It is recognised that advances in complex ecosystem and agent-based modelling have improved 'climate change archaeology', but that there are aspects of people's relationships with the weather and climate that are ill-suited to quantification. The article concludes by arguing that people's qualitative engagements with the weather are integral to how past people viewed and used the landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article opens a debate on how to make social care in England more sustainable in the context of environmental, social and economic changes. Based on an innovative research project commissioned by the Department of Health through the Social Care Institute for Excellence, we provide an analysis of the policy context for sustainability in the social care sector as set out by New Labour and discuss the extent to which the new coalition government has taken this agenda forward. Drawing on case studies from England and Wales, the article describes a range of good practice for embedding sustainability within the commissioning and delivery of social care services. We then consider how to develop frameworks that support sustainable practices within social care services, and critically discuss some of drivers and challenges. We conclude that social care can only be sustainable if an integrated approach is taken that combines environmental, economic and social considerations. The current fiscal crisis has added urgency to the need to develop innovative systems of social care based on co-production, mutualism and localism. Piloting and mainstreaming approaches such as these can only be done with strong leadership, long-term thinking and meaningful incentives. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The UK National Oceanography Centre has maintained an observatory in Liverpool Bay since August 2002. Over 8 years of observational measurements are used in conjunction with regional ocean modelling data to describe the physical and dynamical oceanography of Liverpool Bay and to validate the regional model, POLCOMS. Tidal dynamics and plume buoyancy govern the fate of the fresh water as it enters the sea, as well as the fate of its sediment, contaminants and nutrient loads. In this context, an overview and summary of Liverpool Bay tidal dynamics are presented. Freshwater forcing statistics are presented showing that on average the bay receives 233 m s. Though the region is salinity controlled, river input temperature is shown to significantly modulate the plume buoyancy with a seasonal cycle. Stratification strongly influences the region's dynamics. Data from long-term moored instrumentation are used to analyse the stratification statistics that are representative of the region. It is shown that for 65% of tidal cycles, the region alternates between being vertically mixed and stratified. Plume dynamics are diagnosed from the model and are presented for the region. The spring-neap modulation of the plume's westward extent, between 3.5 ° W and 4° W, is highlighted. The rapid eastward erosion of the plume during spring tides is identified as a potentially important freshwater mixing mechanism. Novel climatological maps of temperature, salinity and density from the CTD surveys are presented and used to validate numerical simulations. The model is found to be sensitive to the freshwater forcing rates, temperature and salinities. The existing CTD survey grid is shown to not extend sufficiently near the coast to capture the near coastal and vertically mixed component the plume. Instead the survey grid captures the westward spreading, shallow and transient, portion of the plume. This transient plume feature is shown in both the long-term averaged model and observational data as a band of stratified fluid stretching between the mouth of the Mersey towards the Isle of Man. Finally the residual circulation is discussed. Long-term moored ADCP data are favourably compared with model data, showing the general northward flow of surface water and southward trajectory of bottom water. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study that deals with the gridded climate data's accuracy and its usefulness in climatological research in Exeter, England. These data has been released by the National Climate Information Centre's Meteorological Office and used to assess weather anomalies in the country. Researchers sighted the possible errors that may be encountered in using such gridded data.

Flow and turbulence above urban terrain is more complex than above rural terrain, due to the different momentum and heat transfer characteristics that are affected by the presence of buildings (e.g. pressure variations around buildings). The applicability of similarity theory (as developed over rural terrain) is tested using observations of flow from a sonic anemometer located at 190.3 m height in London, U.K. using about 6500 h of data. Turbulence statistics—dimensionless wind speed and temperature, standard deviations and correlation coefficients for momentum and heat transfer—were analysed in three ways. First, turbulence statistics were plotted as a function only of a local stability parameter z/Λ (where Λ is the local Obukhov length and z is the height above ground); the σ/ u values ( i = u, v, w) for neutral conditions are 2.3, 1.85 and 1.35 respectively, similar to canonical values. Second, analysis of urban mixed-layer formulations during daytime convective conditions over London was undertaken, showing that atmospheric turbulence at high altitude over large cities might not behave dissimilarly from that over rural terrain. Third, correlation coefficients for heat and momentum were analyzed with respect to local stability. The results give confidence in using the framework of local similarity for turbulence measured over London, and perhaps other cities. However, the following caveats for our data are worth noting: (i) the terrain is reasonably flat, (ii) building heights vary little over a large area, and (iii) the sensor height is above the mean roughness sublayer depth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the uncertainties in Central England temperature (CET) record. It mentions that uncertainties in historical climate records restrict the understanding of natural variability of climate but enables the placement of recent climate events and extremes into a realistic perspective thru its estimation. Moreover, it presents information on temperature measurements from the late 17th and 18th centuries.

Over the centuries, London has progressively encroached into the tidal Thames River as it has developed into a ''World City''. This encroachment has exacerbated the flood risk to new and adjacent land, despite continual upgrading of flood defences. The pressure for further encroachment remains, despite the new threat of human-induced climate change—that is, the combined effect of (1) increased peak river flow in the winter, (2) more intense precipitation events, (3) accelerated sea-level rise, and possibly (4) more severe storms and resulting storm surges. Costly upgrade of defences is inevitable to manage the increased flood risk, and this has caused a re-evaluation of the Thames Estuary's flood defence program. For the first time, managed realignment in urban areas is being considered as a flood management tool. This offers a range of potential benefits including (1) increasing storage for floodwater, (2) improving ecological functioning, (3) improving riverside access for people, and (4) reversing the long-term trend of encroachment into the river. Planned managed realignment can widen the scope for future defence upgrade, but has been limited in urbanised areas. Several projects in London (e.g., Tate Modern and Millennium Dome) have shown that realignment can achieve the benefits described above, which supports the government's recent ''Making Space for Water'' policy. This study investigates the feasibility of managed realignment in the Thames Estuary. Fragmentation between flood defence and spatial development policies, lack of political support, and riverside encroachment continue to delay urban realignment projects. Successful application will require long-term planning (over decades) that exploits all opportunities for landward realignment offered by redevelopment. With the uncertainties behind climate change and more development in the ''Thames Gateway'', further research is needed to understand the contribution of urban realignment to any flood management strategy that may be applied to other coastal urban areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Climatic effects are increasingly being recognised as an important factor causing inter-annual variability in organism abundances in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. This study investigated the relationships between water temperature (cumulative degree-days >12 °C), river discharge (cumulative discharge-days above basal discharge rate), the position of the North Wall of the Gulf Stream (NWGS), and the 0+ growth (September mean length) and recruitment success (year-class strength, YCS) of three species of cyprinid fishes in two contrasting English lowland rivers, using a 21-year dataset. 2. Contrary to the majority of studies on 0+ fishes, growth in the Yorkshire Ouse was most significantly correlated with river discharge, with water temperature of less importance. By contrast, temperature was more influential than discharge in the River Trent, possibly because of its regulated hydrological regime, although none of the relationships were statistically significant for this river. 3. Year-class strength of roach ( Rutilus rutilus) was positively correlated with the position of the NWGS, and there was evidence of synchrony in recruitment success between rivers, but the relationships were poorer for chub ( Leuciscus cephalus) and dace ( Leuciscus leuciscus). The strongest relationships between YCS and discharge during specific time periods were for when the fish were in their early (especially larval) developmental stages, although none of the relationships were statistically significant because of inter-annual variations in river discharge relative to the timing of fish hatching. 4. Fishes are key predators in the majority of aquatic ecosystems and, as such, fluctuations in their abundances can have implications for ecosystem functioning as a whole. This study has demonstrated an underlying influence of broad-scale climatic effects on the recruitment of riverine fishes, in spite of local variations in biotic and abiotic conditions. The relative importance of various abiotic factors on the recruitment success of riverine cyprinid populations varies spatially and temporally. For example, river discharge is likely to be of relatively greater importance in poorly-structured rivers or those that are prone to large and rapid fluctuations in flow, while temporal variations occur because of inter-annual differences in river discharge relative to the timing of fish hatching. Biotic factors may also be important determinants of fish recruitment success, especially in rivers with stable and predictable flow regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A stochastic analytical model of mass transfer was used to analyze processes of drying thin layers of grain ventilated with unheated air. As an excitation to the drying system, stochastic analytical models of variations in input air parameters during the post-harvest period of drying were used. Stochastic models were based on historical weather data of two different climates: the maritime climate of England, and the climate that is the mixture of continental and maritime climates. Changes in time of the mean and the standard deviation values of grain moisture content during drying were compared with statistical characteristics of input air parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The degree to which population vulnerability to outdoor temperature is reduced by improvements in infrastructure, technology, and general health has an important bearing on what realistically can be expected with future changes in climate. Using autoregressive Poisson models with adjustment for season, the authors analyzed weekly mortality in London, United Kingdom, during four periods (1900–1910, 1927–1937, 1954–1964, and 1986–1996) to quantify changing vulnerability to seasonal and temperature-related mortality throughout the 20th century. Mortality patterns showed an epidemiologic transition over the century from high childhood mortality to low childhood mortality and towards a predominance of chronic disease mortality in later periods. The ratio of winter deaths to nonwinter deaths was 1.24 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.34) in 1900–1910, 1.54 (95% CI: 1.42, 1.68) in 1927–1937, 1.48 (95% CI: 1.35, 1.64) in 1954–1964, and 1.22 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.31) in 1986–1996. The temperature-mortality gradient for cold deaths diminished progressively: The increase in mortality per 1°C drop below 15°C was 2.52% (95% CI: 2.00, 3.03), 2.34% (95% CI: 1.72, 2.96), 1.64% (1.10, 2.19), and 1.17% (95% CI: 0.88, 1.45), respectively, in the four periods. Corresponding population attributable fractions were 12.5%, 11.2%, 8.7%, and 5.4%. Heat deaths also diminished over the century. There was a progressive reduction in temperature-related deaths over the 20th century, despite an aging population. This trend is likely to reflect improvements in social, environmental, behavioral, and health-care factors and has implications for the assessment of future burdens of heat and cold mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Wealden strata of southern England provide a range of evidence for Early Cretaceous non-marine environments and their inhabitants, and a climate of warm to hot, ‘Mediterranean’ aspect. Because of its exposure, and its range of facies, distinguishing a variety of sedimentary environments, the Wealden has long fascinated geologists intent on providing an environmental model. This article is one of two intended to give an overview of Wealden environments, providing the geological framework of these strata. In this article, the type-succession in the Weald Sub-basin of south-east England is summarized and briefly interpreted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperature measurements were taken at three pilot-scale facultative ponds located at Esholt wastewater treatment works in West Yorkshire, UK over two one-year periods. The measurements were taken at different depths using a technology called Thermochron iButton. The iButton readings were compared with temperature measurements taken by a YSI sonde probe and maximum/minimum thermometers: they were found to be within 1 .C. In the temperature range 3.18 .C the mean weekly and monthly air temperatures were found to be good predictors for the mean weekly and monthly pond water-column temperatures. The level of stratification in the ponds under UK climatic conditions was assessed; the data revealed that the ponds remained thermally stratified for significant periods during the year despite their shallow depth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to projections by the United Nations, 60% of the world's population will reside in urban areas by 2030. Studies of the ecology of cities and ecology in cities will therefore assume increasing relevance as urban communities seek to protect and/or enhance their ecological resources. Presently, the most serious threats to wildlife include the degradation and/or loss of habitats, the introduction and spread of problem species, water pollution, unsympathetic management, and the encroachment of inappropriate development. Climate change could add to these problems through competition from exotic species, the spread of disease and pests, increased summer drought stress for wetlands and woodland, and sea-level rise threatening rare coastal habitats. Earlier springs, longer frost-free seasons, and reduced snowfall could further affect the dates of egg-laying, as well as the emergence, first flowering and health of leafing or flowering plants. Small birds and naturalized species could thrive in the warmer winters associated with the combined effect of regional climate change and enhanced urban heat island. This article reviews the range of climate-related threats to biodiversity in the aquatic, intertidal and terrestrial habitats of urban areas. London is used as a case study to illustrate potential impacts, and to contend that 'green spaces' in cities could be used by planners to counter climate-related threats to biodiversity, as well as to improve flood control and air quality, and reduce urban heat island effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subfossil wood from White Moss, south Cheshire, has become the focus of palaeoenvironmental research employing not only conventional coring, pollen analysis, radiocarbon dating and dendrochronology on pine and oak, but also the exhumation of in situ peat areas and dendroecology of the pine ring-width records. Initial dendrochronological research at the site yielded five pine chronologies dating from 3520 to 2462 cal. bc. These and other data indicate three episodes of pine colonization of the mire in the period between 3643 and 1740 cal. bc. Comparison of the pollen and spore records suggest that pine became marginalized at the site c. 2500 cal. bc after successive episodes of increased wetness, and this may represent a staged response to climatic deterioration. Two oak chronologies were dated by reference to the Belfast and to English oak master chronologies to 3228–2898 bc and 2190–1891 bc, respectively, showing the possible co-existence of pine and oak on the mire for part of the time. Further dendrochronological work on subfossil pine at the site resulted in a chronology (WM4) that was cross-matched with pine from elsewhere in England, and subsequently dated absolutely to 2881–2559 bc. Detailed dendroecological information, such as fire episodes and periods of environmental stress indicated in the tree-ring records, have been assigned, precisely and accurately, to calendar years in prehistory. The detailed data show the potential for both dendroecological and wider palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental information that may become available from prehistoric bog-pine chronologies, which might then permit precise correlation and comparisons of proxy-climate data between sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When plants of Sedum rosea (L.) Scop. and S. telephium L. ssp. fabaria Syme are grown in competition at different altitudes it is found that the growth of the species is affected differentially. This effect is such that at low altitudes S. telephium is a larger plant than S. rosea, while the reverse is the case at high attitudes. The observed differences are caused by a marked sensitivity of the growth of S. telephium to differences in altitude, whileS. rosea is very insensitive. The most probable cause of these responses would appear to be differences of climate. The influence of altitude in northern England on air temperature, saturation deficit and irradiance has been investigated in order to establish the magnitude of the differences which may cause these responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An analysis of annual, quarterly, and monthly data for recorded crime in England and Wales yielded strong evidence that temperature has a positive effect on most types of property and violent crime. The effect was independent of seasonal variation. No relationship between crime and rainfall or hours of sunshine emerged in the study. The main explanation advanced is that in England and Wales higher temperatures cause people to spend more time outside the home. Time spent outside the home, in line with routine activity explanations for crime, has been shown to increase the risk of criminal victimization for most types of crime. The results suggest that temperature is one of the main factors to be taken into account when explaining quarter-to-quarter and month-to-month variations in recorded crime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the climate change projections are produced by global models, studying the impact of climatic change on water resources is commonly investigated at catchment scale where the measurements are taken, and water management decisions are made. For this study, the Frome catchment in the UK was investigated as an example of midland England. The DiCaSM model was applied using the UKCP09 future climate change scenarios. The climate projections indicate that the greatest decrease in groundwater recharge and streamflow was projected under high emission scenarios in the 2080s. Under the medium and high emission scenarios, model results revealed that the frequency and severity of drought events would be the highest. The drought indices, the Reconnaissance Drought Index, RDI, Soil Moisture Deficit, SMD and Wetness Index, WI, predicted an increase in the severity of future drought events under the high emission scenarios. Increasing broadleaf forest area would decrease streamflow and groundwater recharge. Urban expansion could increase surface runoff. Decreasing winter barley and grass and increasing oil seed rape, would increase SMD and slightly decrease river flow. Findings of this study are helpful in the planning and management of the water resources considering the impact of climate and land use changes on variability in the availability of surface and groundwater resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]