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The article focuses on a study which aims at analyzing four-dimensional (4D) climatology datasets of aerosol optical depth (AOD) distributed over the Mediterranean basin. It describes the methodology of the study, in which eight different AOD products derived by satellite are used and shows differences in dust aerosols and other marine and continental aerosols.

Ever since there has been an increase in the number of automatic wildfire monitoring and surveillance systems in the last few years, natural landscape images have been of great importance. In this paper we propose an expert system for fast segmentation and classification of regions on natural landscape images that is suitable for real-time applications. We focus primarily on Mediterranean landscape images since the Mediterranean area and areas with similar climate are the ones most associated with high wildfire risk. The proposed expert system is based on cogent confabulation theory and knowledge bases that contain information about local and global features, optimal color spaces suitable for classification of certain regions, and context of each class. The obtained results indicate that the proposed expert system significantly outperforms well-known classifiers that it was compared against in both accuracy and speed, and that it is effective and efficient for real-time applications. Additionally, we present a FESB MLID dataset on which we conducted our research and that we made publicly available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines future climate change scenarios for the Mediterranean region using the Tourism Climatic Index. Currently, an estimated 100 million tourists visit the Mediterranean region annually, largely because of its favourable climate. Experiments with climate change scenarios suggest likely changes, with the Mediterranean becoming too hot in summer, with northern Europe having a more attractive climate, and with the Mediterranean becoming a more pleasant destination in spring and autumn. These spatial and temporal changes in climatic attractiveness could have major impacts on the sustainability of tourism development. Preliminary results for the case study of the Balearic Islands suggest that changes are likely to be detrimental from an economic and social point of view, and neutral or favourable from a resource management and biodiversity perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on early Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) records in the Mediterranean zone, which are under-represented in continental archives (9.2 to 8.2 ka events) and on their impact on prehistoric societies. This lack of data handicaps the general interpretation of climate impacts on human societies, which flourished in recent years. Key questions remain about the impact of early Holocene cooling events on the Mediterranean climate, ecosystems and human societies. In this paper, we discuss some examples from river and lake systems from the eastern to central Mediterranean area (central Anatolia, Cyprus, northeastern and northwestern Greece) that illustrate some palaeohydrological and erosion variations that modified the sustainability of the first Neolithic populations in this region. Results allow us to present direct land-sea correlations and to reconstruct regional long-term trends as well as millennial- to centennial-scale climatic changes. In this context, we question the socio-economic and geographical adaptation capacities of these societies (mobility, technology, economic practices, social organisation) during the "early Holocene" interval (11.7 to 8.2 ka), which corresponds partly to the Sapropel 1 deposition in the eastern Mediterranean sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims at conducting the first science mapping analysis of the Mediterranean forest research in order to elucidate its research structure and evolution. We applied a science mapping approach based on co-term and citation analyses to a set of scientific publications retrieved from the Elsevier’s Scopus database over the period 1980–2014. The Scopus search retrieved 2,698 research papers and reviews published by 159 peer-reviewed journals. The total number of publications was around 1% (N = 17) during the period 1980–1989 and they reached 3% (N = 69) in the time slice 1990–1994. Since 1995, the number of publications increased exponentially, thus reaching 55% (N = 1,476) during the period 2010–2014. Within the thirty-four years considered, the retrieved publications were published by 88 countries. Among them, Spain was the most productive country, publishing 44% (N = 1,178) of total publications followed by Italy (18%, N = 482) and France (12%, N = 336). These countries also host the ten most productive scientific institutions in terms of number of publications in Mediterranean forest subjects. Forest Ecology and Management and Annals of Forest Science were the most active journals in publishing research in Mediterranean forest. During the period 1980–1994, the research topics were poorly characterized, but they become better defined during the time slice 1995–1999. Since 2000s, the clusters become well defined by research topics. Current status of Mediterranean forest research (20092014) was represented by four clusters, in which different research topics such as biodiversity and conservation, land-use and degradation, climate change effects on ecophysiological responses and soil were identified. Basic research in Mediterranean forest ecosystems is mainly conducted by ecophysiological research. Applied research was mainly represented by land-use and degradation, biodiversity and conservation and fire research topics. The citation analyses revealed highly cited terms in the Mediterranean forest research as they were represented by fire, biodiversity, carbon sequestration, climate change and global warming. Finally, our analysis also revealed the multidisciplinary role of climate change research. This study provides a first holistic view of the Mediterranean forest research that could be useful for researchers and policy makers as they may evaluate and analyze its historical evolution, as well as its structure and scientific production. We concluded that Mediterranean forest research represents an active scientific field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The general objective of the international MEDiterranean EXperiment (MEDEX) was the better understanding and forecasting of cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean. This paper reviews the motivation and foundation of MEDEX, the gestation, history and organisation of the project, as well as the main products and scientific achievements obtained from it. MEDEX obtained the approval of World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and can be considered as framed within other WMO actions, such as the ALPine EXperiment (ALPEX), the Mediterranean Cyclones Study Project (MCP) and, to a certain extent, THe Observing System Research and Predictability EXperiment (THORPEX) and the HYdrological cycle in Mediterranean EXperiment (HyMeX). Through two phases (2000-2005 and 2006-2010), MEDEX has produced a specific database, with information about cyclones and severe or high impact weather events, several main reports and a specific data targeting system field campaign (DTS-MEDEX-2009). The scientific achievements are significant in fields like climatology, dynamical understanding of the physical processes and social impact of cyclones, as well as in aspects related to the location of sensitive zones for individual cases, the climatology of sensitivity zones and the improvement of the forecasts through innovative methods like mesoscale ensemble prediction systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares the heating and cooling loads between a double skin façade and a single skin façade in different and contrasting climates. The thermal and lighting properties of both types of facades are calculated, based on the hypothesis of a virtual south facing office room. The results of the above calculations show that in climates with high sunshine duration, the difference in heating and cooling loads is less for a double skin façade in comparison to a single skin facade. This difference ranges from about 30% in the Mediterranean to about 40% in the Arabian peninsula in the case that the single skin building is not equipped with automatic shading devices, whereas in the case that both buildings have automatic shading devices the above percentages range from about 5.5% to 7.5%, respectively. The same difference in heating and cooling loads between the two types of facades is significantly reduced in colder Continental climates such as Moscow, as well as temperate climates such as London. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Technology transfer, scientific research and education could have a key role in Mediterranean regions, in order to reduce the environmental impact of the building sector. Recently, the Department of Engineering of University of Sannio has developed a laboratory suitable for performing researches on the dynamic interactions between building envelope components, indoor environment and mechanical systems for a typical climate of south of Italy. The work described within this paper is a part of this large-scale project. Its goals are: (a) to design, test and validate a poly-equipped test room, (b) to perform transient tests to determine performances of common and innovative building components and alternative HVAC systems. More in detail, this paper focuses on the first goal, with the aim to generalize the design approach, requirements and capabilities of calibrated outdoor test facilities, specifically thought for Mediterranean climate. The facility has undergone a substantial amount of characterization tests, aimed at determining its response under yearly operations. The primary conclusions are that the new test facility is usable for a wide range of environmental and indoor conditions, it is functional and has been validated through characterization and preliminary investigations of the behavior of the thermal envelope. Moreover, some experimental results are here analyzed, by evidencing the potentialities of vacuum insulation panels for improving the performances of the thermal envelope, for what concerns both winter and summer seasons. Then, some numerical analyses have been carried out. A 3D CFD model has been calibrated for studying the real distribution of temperatures and water vapor partial pressures within VIP panels. Furthermore, a dynamic energy model of the test cell has been developed by means of Energy Plus, with the aim to use its capability to compare potential configurations that would be installed in future researches, or to evaluate energy, environmental and economic issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Particulate air pollution is associated with adverse health effects to the population exposed. The aim of this paper is the identification of local and regional sources, affecting PM 10 and PM 2.5 levels in four large cities of southern Europe, namely: Lisbon, Madrid, Marseille, and Rome. Air pollution data from seven sampling sites of the European Union network were used. These stations were selected due to their ability of monitoring PM 2.5 concentrations and providing reliable series of data. Each station’s background was also taken into account. Pearson correlation coefficients and primal component analysis components were extracted separately for cold and warm periods in order to define the relationships among particle matters (PM s) and gaseous pollutants (CO, NO 2, SO 2, and O 3) and evaluate the contributions of local sources. Possible seasonal variations of PM 2.5/PM 10 ratio daily values were also used as markers of PM sources, influencing particulate size distribution. Particle emissions were primarily attributed to traffic and secondarily to natural sources. Minimum daily values of PM 2.5/PM 10 ratio were observed during warm periods, particularly at suburban stations with rural background, due to dust resuspension and also due to the increase of biogenic coarse PM (pollen, dust, etc.). Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model trajectory model was used in order to compute the 4-day backward trajectories of the air masses that affected the four cities which are under study during days with recorded PM 10 exceedances, within a 5-year period (2003–2007), at 300, 750, and 1,500 m above ground level (AGL). The trajectories were then divided to clusters with a K-means analysis. In all four cities, the influence of slow-moving air masses was associated with a large fraction of PM 10 exceedances and with high average and maximum daily mean PM 10 concentrations, principally at the 300 m AGL analysis. As far the issue of the increased PM 10 concentrations, the results were weaker in Marseille and particularly in Rome, probably due to their greater distance from Northwest Africa, in comparison to Madrid and Lisbon. Dust intrusions from the Sahara desert and transportation of Mediterranean/Atlantic sea spray, were characterized as primary regional sources of exogenous PM 10 in all four cities. Continental trajectories from the industrialized northern Italy affected PM 10 levels particularly in Marseille and Rome, due to their more eastern geographical position. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the thermal performance of different urban configurations of the housing complexes located in the Mediterranean climate of the Gaza Strip. The research is carried out using the computer programs ECOTECT and IES. The results indicate significant thermal effects due to the urban configurations. The paper concluded that the high site coverage and plot ratio are advisable from the thermal point of view. Buildings in the high plot ratio have a better thermal response in the summer periods with a more reasonable difference in the ground and middle floors. Therefore, Buildings' proportions have to be determined with a full understanding to their relations with the urban morphology. It is also recommended to utilize the advantages of the mutual vertical arrangements of building in achieving shading on the roof and building's façades by using different heights of buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies carried out worldwide show that topography influences rainfall climatology. As in most western Mediterranean regions, the mountainous Cévennes-Vivarais area in France regularly experiences extreme precipitation that may lead to devastating flash floods. Global warming could further aggravate this situation, but this possibility cannot be confirmed without first improving the understanding of the role of topography in the regional climate and, in particular, for extreme rainfall events. This paper focuses on organized banded rainfall and evaluates its contribution to the rainfall climatology of this region. Stationary rainfall systems made up of such bands are triggered and enhanced by small-scale interactions between the atmospheric flow and the relief. Rainbands are associated with shallow convection and are also present in deep-convection events for specific flux directions. Such precipitation patterns are difficult to observe both with operational weather radar networks, which are not designed to observe low-level convection within complex terrain, and with rain gauge networks, for which gauge spacing is typically larger than the bandwidth. A weather class of banded orographic shallow-convection events is identified, and the contribution of such events to annual or seasonal precipitation over the region is assessed. Moreover, a method is also proposed to quantify the contribution of banded convection during specific deep-convection events. It is shown that even though these orographically driven banded precipitation events produce moderate precipitation intensities they have long durations and therefore represent a significant amount of the rainfall climatology of the region, producing up to 40%% of long-term total precipitation at certain locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal development along the Mediterranean coast needs to be tackled with an integrated approach, in order to safeguard people and properties from extreme events, maintain environmental flows and ecosystems functions, protect coastal landscapes and ensure public accessibility to the shore. The complexity of the Mediterranean countries legal and administrative framework and its morphological heterogeneity make the implementation of new the Protocol on ICZM provisions on coastal setbacks,-claiming for a 100 m wide buffer zone where construction is not allowed- a challenge for the success of the initiative. European countries and the European Commission are party to the protocol but the European legal framework lacks of specific provisions addressing the definition of coastal setbacks. Moreover, climate change, in terms of sea level rise and maritime climate, could play a major role in the future position of setback lines. While arbitrary setbacks should be put in place to halt short-term unwise coastal development, science can improve the identification of coastal setbacks by providing integrated methodologies to be implemented at the local level. The objective of this paper is to review concepts and practices in the use of coastal setbacks, in the context of the provisions of the ICZM protocol and taking into account new challenges posed by climate change. A stepwise route map is proposed as a base to identify coastal setbacks, applicable to the Mediterranean region and elsewhere, to be used as a base to improve arbitrary setback approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper presents and assesses the model MedREM, in which annual-based climate and rainstorm data are used to estimate the long-term (R)Universal Soil Loss Equations and its Revisions (USLE) annual rainfall erosivity over a large region. Two known models of rainfall erosivity (named after the first author of the original paper, Torri and Yang) were also assessed and compared with the MedREM. Yang and Torri models are both based on the annual precipitation models. MedREM also takes annual maximum daily precipitation data into account, and incorporates a longitude-dependent coefficient. The test area was a large region centered on the Mediterranean basin, in which 66 weather stations were available – 43 Italian and 23 out-of-Italy sites (12 countries, about 30–50° latitude North, and 10–50° longitude East) – with multi-year data of (R)USLE annual erosivity. The three models were calibrated against (R)USLE rainfall erosivity data from 55 stations and evaluated over a validation dataset from 11 Italian stations. On the validation dataset, the MedREM estimates generally compared well with the (R)USLE data according to Nush–Sutcliffe coefficient (0.87 against 0.76 and 0.73 with Torri and Yang model, respectively). Implications for erosivity modelling were discussed in the context of climatic features concluding that accurate estimations of site-specific annual erosivity for the Mediterranean region require process-based model with spatially-explicit parameterization. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The European Field Experiment in a Desertification-Threatened Area (EFEDA) provides a comprehensive land surface dataset for a semiarid Mediterranean environment with natural vegetation and cultivated dry and irrigated land. This paper discusses the methods and practical aspects of deriving area-averaged fluxes for a range of areas from the whole EFEDA region to several numerical weather prediction model grid cells (on 10–100-km scales). A time series of grid-scale surface fluxes for the entire observational period of 1 month was obtained from weighted surface averages, using a crop phenology–based land use classification together with a homogenized set of surface observations representative of the four major vegetation classes. The flux-aggregated surface observations were compared with two other approaches to obtain grid-scale fluxes (airborne flux observations and radiosondes in conjunction with a simple mixed-layer model). The area-aggregated fluxes (in particular of latent heat) depend strongly on the location of the area boundaries whenever a significant fraction of irrigated land is present. This result confirms clearly the importance of adequately accounting for tiles of irrigated land in surface schemes and corresponding physiographic databases of large-scale models. A simple way to accommodate for minimum information on the canopy water status is proposed in terms of the distinction of at least two seasonal classes of irrigated crops—one of spring and one of summer growing cycles. The main lesson from this aggregation exercise concerns the role of irrigation. First, this study quantifies the uncertainties in the space–time pattern and its effects on aggregated surface fluxes for the first time on the grounds of observational data. Second, it demonstrates practical ways to accomplish the parameterization of irrigation in flux aggregation schemes, by identifying the key data along with their possible sources and by defining a practical implementation procedure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper deals some important aspects concerning the study of desertification phenomenon that has significantly interested all European countries of the Mediterranean basin in the last decades. The territorial sensibility, qualitatively and/or quantitatively, of the risk related to the desertification processes has been valued as grade of susceptibility to the phenomenon in the study area, with respect to the hydraulic and hydrologic conditioning factors. The methodological approach followed is based on the classification of desertification indicators by means of a suitable conceptual model applied to the study area in Basilicata region. The classical desertification indexes have been evaluate referring to the study area generating temporal informative map. To achieve such objective, the historical series of temperatures and rainfall of several gauge-stations have been analysed, and the first results show an increasing trend for the temperature in last years, according to the global scale. An increase of aridity and erosion index values is, also, outlined by the collected data with slight reductions at higher altitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Aim To understand how vegetation mediates the interplay between fire and climate. Specifically, we predict that neither the switching of climatic conditions to high flammability nor the sensitivity of fire to such conditions are universal, but rather depend on fuel (vegetation) structure, which in turn changes with productivity. Location An aridity/productivity gradient on the Iberian Peninsula (Mediterranean Basin). Methods We defined 13 regions distributed along an aridity gradient, which thus differ in productivity and fuel structure. We then assessed the changes in the temporal fire-climate relationship across regions. Specifically, for each region we estimated three variables: the aridity level for switching to flammable conditions (i.e. climatic conditions conducive to fire), the frequency of these flammable conditions and the area burnt under such conditions. These variables were then related to regional aridity and fuel structure indicators. Results In mediterranean ecosystems, the aridity level for switching to flammable conditions increased along the aridity gradient. Differences in fire activity between regions were not explained by the frequency of flammable conditions but by the sensitivity of fire to such conditions, which was higher in wetter and more productive regions. Main conclusions Under mediterranean climatic conditions, fuel structure is more relevant in driving fire activity than the frequency of climatic conditions conducive to fire. At a global scale, fuel also drives the fire-climate relationship because it determines the climatic (aridity) threshold for switching to flammable conditions. Our results emphasize the role of landscape structure in shaping current and future fire-climate relationships at a regional scale, and suggest that future changes in the fire regime (i.e. under global warming) might be different from what it is predicted by climate alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the French Mediterranean, large fires have significant socioeconomic and environmental impacts. We used a long-term georeferenced fire time series (1958–2017) to analyze both spatial and temporal distributions of large fires (LFs; ≥100 ha). The region was impacted in some locations up to six times by recurrent LFs and 21 % of the total area burned by LFs occurred on a surface that previously burned in the past, with potential impact on forest resilience. We found contrasting patterns between the east and the west of the study area, the former experiencing fewer LFs but of a larger extent compared to the latter, with an average time of occurrence between LFs exceeding 4000 ha <7 years mostly in the eastern coastal area and >50 years in the west. This longitudinal gradient in LF return level contrasts with what we would expect from mean fire weather conditions strongly decreasing eastwards during the fire season but is consistent with larger fuel cover in the east, highlighting the strong role of fuel continuity in fire spread. Additionally, our analysis confirms the sharp decrease in both LF frequency and burned area in the early 1990s, due to the efficiency of fire suppression and prevention reinforced at that time, thereby weakening the functional climate–fire relationship across the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a climatological application of the combination of remote sensing data and multivariate analysis. It proposes a methodology to perform an agroclimatic characterization of a region with the aim of determining homogeneous areas. This methodology is applied to Catalonia, in the northwest of the Mediterranean Sea, in the Iberian Peninsula. To this end various multivariate analysis techniques have been applied to data from 107 meteorological stations and to digitally processed AVHRR images from a NOAA satellite (ground surface temperature and thermal inertia). Values of emissivity and albedo for different land uses and phenomenological states, in addition to the most suitable algorithms for the soil surface temperature, have been obtained. Combining this information with orographic characteristics andthe Papathakis classification, a final map is obtained with 68 homogeneous zones for the period between April and October, the most important for the agriculture of the area studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to provide convenient data to assess rainfall simulated by Regional Climate Models, a spatial database (hereafter called K-REF) has been designed. This database is used to examine climatological features of rainfall in Southeast France, a study region characterized by two mountain ranges of comparable altitude (the Cévennes and the Alps foothill) on both sides of the Rhône valley. Hourly records from 1993 to 2013 have been interpolated to a 0.1∘×0.1∘ latitude-longitude regular grid and accumulated over 3-h periods in K-REF. The assessment of K-REF relatively to the SAFRAN daily rainfall reanalysis indicates consistent patterns and magnitudes between the two datasets even though K-REF fields are smoother. A multi-scale analysis of the occurrence and non-zero intensity of rainfall is performed and shows that the maps of the 50th and 95th percentiles of 3- and 24-h rain intensity highlight different patterns. The maxima of the 50th and 95th percentiles are located over plain and mountainous areas respectively. Moreover, the location of these maxima is not the same for the 3- and 24-h intensities. To understand these differences between median and intense rainfall on the one hand and between the 3- and 24-h rainfall on the other hand, we analyze the statistical distributions and the space-time structure of occurrence and intensity of the 3-h rainfall in two classes of days, defined as median and intense. This analysis illustrates the influence of two factors on the triggering and the intensity of rain in the region: the solar cycle and the orography. The orographic forcing appears to be quite different for the two ranges of the domain and is much more pronounced over the Cévennes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme heat events will become more frequent under anthropogenic climate change, especially in Mediterranean ecosystems. Microhabitats can considerably moderate (buffer) the effects of extreme weather events and hence facilitate the persistence of some components of the biodiversity. We investigate the microclimatic moderation provided by two important microhabitats (cavities formed by the leaves of the grass-tree Xanthorrhoea semiplana F.Muell., Xanthorrhoeaceae; and inside the leaf-litter) during the summer of 2015/16 on the Fleurieu Peninsula of South Australia. We placed microsensors inside and outside these microhabitats, as well as above the ground below the forest canopy. Grass-tree and leaf-litter microhabitats significantly buffered against high temperatures and low relative humidity, compared to ground-below-canopy sensors. There was no significant difference between grass-tree and leaf-litter temperatures: in both microhabitats, daily temperature variation was reduced, day temperatures were 1–5°C cooler, night temperatures were 0.5–3°C warmer, and maximum temperatures were up to 14.4°C lower, compared to ground-below-canopy sensors. Grass-tree and leaf-litter microhabitats moderated heat increase at an average rate of 0.24°C temperature per 1°C increase of ambient temperature in the ground-below-canopy microhabitat. The average daily variation in temperature was determined by the type (grass-tree and leaf-litter versus ground-below-canopy) of microhabitat (explaining 67%), the amount of canopy cover and the area of the vegetation fragment (together explaining almost 10% of the variation). Greater canopy cover increased the amount of microclimatic moderation provided, especially in the leaf-litter. Our study highlights the importance of microhabitats in moderating macroclimatic conditions. However, this moderating effect is currently not considered in species distribution modelling under anthropogenic climate change nor in the management of vegetation. This shortcoming will have to be addressed to obtain realistic forecasts of future species distributions and to achieve effective management of biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between the Mediterranean 500-hPa storm tracks and wet season (November-April) rainfall over Saudi Arabia is investigated. The analysis is based on the application of an objective tracking scheme to the 6-hourly 500-hPa geopotential height ERA-Interim dataset (0.75° × 0.75°) for the period 1979-2012. The resulting tracks are then associated with the ERA-Interim rainfall events over Saudi Arabia. The association procedure showed that 34 % of the tracks are related to about 70 % of the rainfall. These associated tracks are used to construct climatology. A climatology of these storm tracks revealed that the eastern Mediterranean region is the preferred location for cyclogenesis with a maximum in the southwest parts of the Black Sea. The study also examined the mean radius, average intensity and average depth of the storms. The number of tracks in winter (December-February) is about 60 % of the total number which confirms the major contribution of the Mediterranean storms to rainfall over Saudi Arabia. A significant negative trend was found for storm cyclogenesis over the central Mediterranean, and the Black sea. A significant trend decrease in track density is observed over most of the northern parts of Saudi Arabia. The peaks of storm activities are observed in December and January in 1996, 1997 and 2009. Storm activity generally declines after 2000, especially in the second half of the wet season months (February-April). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change impacts in both their terrestrial (nesting beach) and oceanic habitats. From 1982 to 2012, air and sea surface temperatures at major high use foraging and nesting regions (n = 5) of loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nesting in Greece have steadily increased. Here, we update the established relationships between sea surface temperature and nesting data from Zakynthos (latitude: 37.7°N), a major nesting beach, while also expanding these analyses to include precipitation and air temperature and additional nesting data from two other key beaches in Greece: Kyparissia Bay (latitude: 37.3°N) and Rethymno, Crete (latitude: 35.4°N). We confirmed that nesting phenology at Zakynthos has continued to be impacted by breeding season temperature; however, temperature has no consistent relationship with nest numbers, which are declining on Zakynthos and Crete but increasing at Kyparissia. Then using statistically downscaled outputs of 14 climate models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we projected future shifts in nesting for these populations. Based on the climate models, we projected that temperature at the key foraging and breeding sites (Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Crete, Gulf of Gabès and Zakynthos/Kyparissia Bay; overall latitudinal range: 33.0°—45.8°N) for loggerhead turtles nesting in Greece will rise by 3–5°C by 2100. Our calculations indicate that the projected rise in air and ocean temperature at Zakynthos could cause the nesting season in this major rookery to shift to an earlier date by as much as 50–74 days by 2100. Although an earlier onset of the nesting season may provide minor relief for nest success as temperatures rise, the overall climatic changes to the various important habitats will most likely have an overall negative impact on this population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In being at the base of the marine food web, phytoplankton is particularly important for marine ecosystem functioning (e.g., biodiversity). Strong anthropization, over-exploitation of natural resources, and climate change affect the natural amount of phytoplankton and, therefore, represent a continuous threat to the biodiversity in marine waters. In particular, a concerning risks for coastal waters is the increase in nutrient inputs of terrestrial/anthropogenic origin that can lead to undesirable modifications of phytoplankton concentration (i.e., eutrophication). Monitoring chlorophyll (Chl) concentration, which is a proxy of phytoplankton biomass, is an efficient tool for recording and understanding the response of the marine ecosystem to human pressures and thus for detecting eutrophication. Here, we compute Chl trends over the Mediterranean Sea by using satellite data, also highlighting the fact that remote sensing may represent an efficient and reliable solution to synoptically control the “good environmental status” (i.e., the Marine Directive to achieve Good Environmental Status of EU marine waters by 2020) and to assess the application of international regulations and environmental directives. Our methodology includes the use of an ad hoc regional (i.e., Mediterranean) algorithm for Chl concentration retrieval, also accounting for the difference between offshore (i.e., Case I) and coastal (i.e., Case II) waters. We apply the Mann-Kendall test and the Sens’s method for trend estimation to the Chl concentration de-seasonalized monthly time series, as obtained from the X-11 technique. We also provide a preliminary analysis of some particular trends by evaluating their associated inter-annual variability. The high spatial resolution of our approach allows a clear identification of intense trends in those coastal waters that are affected by river outflows. We do not attempt to attribute the observed trends to specific anthropogenic events. However, the trends that we document are consistent with the findings of several previous studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Republic of Croatia is renowned for its natural beauty and mild Mediterranean climate. The consequences are significant tourism revenues each year which is why the tourism is considered as the most important activity. However, tourism is a specific activity that occurs seasonally (at certain time of the year). It would therefore be interesting to analyze how much can tourism revenues distributed throughout the entire financial year contribute to financial result presented in financial statements, that is, to analyze whether their impact on profitability ratios is above average. The main aim of this research is to compare financial performance of listed companies which belong to accommodation and food service activities on one side and financial performance of companies from all other activities on another side. Intention of the research is to determine the financial potential of tourism listed companies. Sample consists of non-financial companies in Republic of Croatia listed on Zagreb Stock Exchange (ZSE) which are divided into two subsamples. First subsample consists of companies which belong to accommodation and food service activities and second subsample comprises companies from other activities. Activities are classified according to National Classification of Activities. Statistical analysis will be applied on financial data collected from financial statements publicly available on ZSE official website. Sample includes non-financial companies and excludes banks, insurance companies and other financial companies due to their particularities in comparison with non-financial companies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mediterranean region is characterized by its vulnerability to changes in the water cycle, with the impact of global warming on the water resources being one of the major concerns in social, economical and scientific ambits. Even if precipitation is the best-known term of the Mediterranean water budget, large uncertainties remain due to the lack of suitable offshore observational data. In this study, we use the data provided by the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-B (AMSU-B) on board NOAA satellites to detect and analyze precipitating and convective events over the last decade at spatial resolution of 0.2° latitude x 0.2° longitude. AMSU-B observation shows that rain occurrence is widespread over the Mediterranean in wintertime while reduced in the eastern part of the basin in summer. Both precipitation and convection occurrences display a weak diurnal cycle over sea. In addition, convection occurrences, which are essentially located over land during summertime, shift to mostly over the sea during autumn with maxima in the Ionian sub-basin and the Adriatic Sea. Precipitation occurrence is also inferred over the sea from two other widely used climatological datasets, HOAPS (Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite Data) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis interim (ERA-Interim). There is generally a rather fair agreement between these climatologies for describing the large-scale patterns such as the strong latitudinal gradient of rain and eastward rain signal propagation. Furthermore, the higher spatial resolution of AMSU-B measurements (16 km at nadir) gives access to mesoscale details in the region (e.g., coastal areas). AMSU-B measurements show less rain occurrences than HOAPS during wintertime, thereby suggesting that some of the thresholds used in our method might be too stringent during this season. We also observed that convection occurrences in ERA-Interim are systematically lower than those derived from AMSU-B. These results are potentially valuable to evaluate the rainfall parameterization in weather and climate models and to constrain ocean models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, human-induced climate change over the Eastern Mediterranean-Black Sea region has been analyzed for the twenty-first century by performing regional climate model simulations forced with large-scale fields from three different global circulation models (GCMs). Climate projections have been produced with Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2, A1FI and B1 scenarios, which provide greater diversity in climate information for future period. The gradual increases for temperature are widely apparent during the twenty-first century for each scenario simulation, but ECHAM5-driven simulation generally has a weaker signal for all seasons compared to CCSM3 simulations except for the Fertile Crescent. The contrast in future temperature change between the winter and summer seasons is very strong for CCSM3-A2-driven and HadCM3-A2-driven simulations over Carpathians and Balkans, 4-5 °C. In addition, winter runoff over mountainous region of Turkey, which feeds many river systems including the Euphrates and Tigris, increases in second half of the century since the snowmelt process accelerates where the elevation is higher than 1,500 m. Moreover, analysis of daily temperature outputs reveals that the gradual decrease in daily minimum temperature variability for January during the twenty-first century is apparent over Carpathians and Balkans. Analysis of daily precipitation extremes shows that positive trend is clear during the last two decades of the twenty-first century over Carpathians for both CCSM3-driven and ECHAM5-driven simulations. Multiple-GCM driven regional climate simulations contribute to the quantification of the range of climate change over a region by performing detailed comparisons between the simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this work is to investigate the recent past and future patterns of the Etesian winds, one of the most persistent localized wind systems in the world, which dominates the wind regime during warm period over the Aegean Sea and eastern Mediterranean. An objective classification method, the Two Step Cluster Analysis (TSCA), is applied on daily data from regional climate model simulations carried out with RegCM3 for the recent past (1961-1990) and future periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) constrained at lateral boundaries either by ERA-40 reanalysis fields or the global circulation model (GCM) ECHAM5. Three distinct Etesian patterns are identified by TSCA with the location and strength of the anticyclonic action center dominating the differences among the patterns. In case of the first Etesian pattern there is a ridge located over western and central Europe while for the other two Etesian patterns the location of the ridge moves eastward indicating a strong anticyclonic center over the Balkans. The horizontal and vertical spatial structure of geopotential height and the vertical velocity indicates that in all three Etesian patterns the anticyclonic action center over central Europe or Balkan Peninsula cannot be considered as an extension of the Azores high. The future projections for the late 21st century under SRES A1B scenario indicate a strengthening of the Etesian winds associated with the strengthening of the anticyclonic action center, and the deepening of Asian thermal Low over eastern Mediterranean. Furthermore the future projections indicate a weakening of the subsidence over eastern Mediterranean which is rather controlled by the deepening of the south Asian thermal Low in line with the projected in future weakening of South Asian monsoon and Hadley cell circulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of this study is to develop a high-resolution atmospheric hindcast over the Mediterranean area using the WRF-ARW model, focusing on offshore surface wind fields. In order to choose the most adequate model configuration, the study provides details on the calibration of the experimental saet-up through a sensitivity test considering the October-December 2001 period (the 2001 super-storm event in the West Mediterranean). A daily forecast outperforms the spectral technique of previous products and the boundary data from ERA-Interim reanalysis produces the most accurate estimates in terms of wind variability and hour-to-hour correspondence. According to the sensitivity test, two data sets of wind hindcast are produced: the SeaWind I (30-km horizontal resolution for a period of 60 years) and the SeaWind II (15-km horizontal resolution for 20 years). The validation of the resulting surface winds is undertaken considering two offshore observational datasets. On the one hand, hourly surface buoy stations are used to validate wind time series at specific locations; on the other hand, wind altimeter satellite observations are considered for spatial validation in the whole Mediterranean Sea. The results obtained from this validation process show a very good agreement with observations for the southern Europe region. Finally, SeaWind I and II are used to characterize offshore wind fields in the Mediterranean Sea. The statistical structure of sea surface wind is analyzed and the agreement with Weibull probability distribution is discussed. In addition, wind persistence and extreme wind speed (50 year return period) are characterized and relevant areas of wind power generation are described by estimating wind energy quantities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the huge resources invested in fire suppression, the impact of wildfires has considerably increased across the Mediterranean region since the second half of the 20th century. Modulating fire suppression efforts in mild weather conditions is an appealing but hotly-debated strategy to use unplanned fires and associated fuel reduction to create opportunities for suppression of large fires in future adverse weather conditions. Using a spatially-explicit fire–succession model developed for Catalonia (Spain), we assessed this opportunistic policy by using two fire suppression strategies that reproduce how firefighters in extreme weather conditions exploit previous fire scars as firefighting opportunities. We designed scenarios by combining different levels of fire suppression efficiency and climatic severity for a 50-year period (2000–2050). An opportunistic fire suppression policy induced large-scale changes in fire regimes and decreased the area burnt under extreme climate conditions, but only accounted for up to 18–22% of the area to be burnt in reference scenarios. The area suppressed in adverse years tended to increase in scenarios with increasing amounts of area burnt during years dominated by mild weather. Climate change had counterintuitive effects on opportunistic fire suppression strategies. Climate warming increased the incidence of large fires under uncontrolled conditions but also indirectly increased opportunities for enhanced fire suppression. Therefore, to shift fire suppression opportunities from adverse to mild years, we would require a disproportionately large amount of area burnt in mild years. We conclude that the strategic planning of fire suppression resources has the potential to become an important cost-effective fuel-reduction strategy at large spatial scale. We do however suggest that this strategy should probably be accompanied by other fuel-reduction treatments applied at broad scales if large-scale changes in fire regimes are to be achieved, especially in the wider context of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seabirds are affected by changes in the marine ecosystem. The influence of climatic factors on marine food webs can be reflected in long-term seabird population changes. We modelled the survival and recruitment of the Mediterranean storm petrel (Hydrobates pelagicus melitensis) using a 21-year mark-recapture dataset involving almost 5000 birds. We demonstrated a strong influence of prebreeding climatic conditions on recruitment age and of rainfall and breeding period conditions on juvenile survival. The results suggest that the juvenile survival rate of the Mediterranean subspecies may not be negatively affected by the predicted features of climate change, i.e., warmer summers and lower rainfall. Based on considerations of winter conditions in different parts of the Mediterranean, we were able to draw inferences about the wintering areas of the species for the first time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid advection of extremely warm and dry air is studied during two events in the Mediterranean Basin. On 27 August 2010 a rapid advection of extremely warm and dry air affected the northeast Iberian Peninsula during a few hours. At the Barcelona city center, the temperature reached 39.3 °C, which is the maximum temperature value recorded during 230 yr of daily data series. On 23 March 2008 a rapid increase of temperature and drop of relative humidity were recorded for a few hours in Heraklion (Crete). During the morning on that day, the recorded temperature reached 34 °C for several hours on the northern coastline of this island. According to theWorld Meteorological Organization none of these events can be classified as a heat wave, which requires at least two days of abnormally high temperatures; neither are they a heat burst as defined by the American Meteorological Society, where abnormal temperatures take place during a few minutes. For this reason, we suggest naming this type of event flash heat. By using data from automatic weather stations in the Barcelona and Heraklion area and WRF mesoscale numerical simulations, these events are analyzed. Additionally, the primary risks and possible impacts on several fields are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European protected-area network will cease to be efficient for biodiversity conservation, particularly in the Mediterranean region, if species are driven out of protected areas by climate warming. Yet, no empirical evidence of how climate change influences ecological communities in Mediterranean nature reserves really exists. Here, we examine long-term (1998–2011/2012) and short-term (2011–2012) changes in the butterfly fauna of Dadia National Park (Greece) by revisiting 21 and 18 transects in 2011 and 2012 respectively, that were initially surveyed in 1998. We evaluate the temperature trend for the study area for a 22-year-period (1990–2012) in which all three butterfly surveys are included. We also assess changes in community composition and species richness in butterfly communities using information on (a) species’ elevational distributions in Greece and (b) Community Temperature Index (calculated from the average temperature of species' geographical ranges in Europe, weighted by species' abundance per transect and year). Despite the protected status of Dadia NP and the subsequent stability of land use regimes, we found a marked change in butterfly community composition over a 13 year period, concomitant with an increase of annual average temperature of 0.95°C. Our analysis gave no evidence of significant year-to-year (2011–2012) variability in butterfly community composition, suggesting that the community composition change we recorded is likely the consequence of long-term environmental change, such as climate warming. We observe an increased abundance of low-elevation species whereas species mainly occurring at higher elevations in the region declined. The Community Temperature Index was found to increase in all habitats except agricultural areas. If equivalent changes occur in other protected areas and taxonomic groups across Mediterranean Europe, new conservation options and approaches for increasing species’ resilience may have to be devised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the variability of the climate-growth relationship of Aleppo pine across its distribution range in the Mediterranean Basin. We constructed a network of tree-ring index chronologies from 63 sites across the region. Correlation function analysis identified the relationships of tree-ring index to climate factors for each site. We also estimated the dominant climatic gradients of the region using principal component analysis of monthly, seasonal, and annual mean temperature and total precipitation from 1,068 climatic gridpoints. Variation in ring width index was primarily related to precipitation and secondarily to temperature. However, we found that the dendroclimatic relationship depended on the position of the site along the climatic gradient. In the southern part of the distribution range, where temperature was generally higher and precipitation lower than the regional average, reduced growth was also associated with warm and dry conditions. In the northern part, where the average temperature was lower and the precipitation more abundant than the regional average, reduced growth was associated with cool conditions. Thus, our study highlights the substantial plasticity of Aleppo pine in response to different climatic conditions. These results do not resolve the source of response variability as being due to either genetic variation in provenance, to phenotypic plasticity, or a combination of factors. However, as current growth responses to inter-annual climate variability vary spatially across existing climate gradients, future climate-growth relationships will also likely be determined by differential adaptation and/or acclimation responses to spatial climatic variation. The contribution of local adaptation and/or phenotypic plasticity across populations to the persistence of species under global warming could be decisive for prediction of climate change impacts across populations. In this sense, a more complex forest dynamics modeling approach that includes the contribution of genetic variation and phenotypic plasticity can improve the reliability of the ecological inferences derived from the climate-growth relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this work is to gain a general insight into the key mechanisms involved in the impact of nudging on the large scales and the small scales of a regional climate simulation. A 'Big Brother experiment' (BBE) approach is used where a 'reference atmosphere' is known, unlike when regional climate models are used in practice. The main focus is on the sensitivity to nudging time, but the BBE approach allows to go beyond a pure sensitivity study by providing a reference which model outputs try to approach, defining an optimal nudging time. Elaborating upon previous idealized studies, this work introduces key novel points. The BBE approach to optimal nudging is used with a realistic model, here the weather research and forecasting model over the European and Mediterranean regions. A winter simulation (1 December 1989-28 February 1990) and a summer simulation (1 June 1999-31 August 1999) with a 50 km horizontal mesh grid have been performed with initial and boundary conditions provided by the ERA-interim reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast to produce the 'reference atmosphere'. The impacts of spectral and indiscriminate nudging are compared all others things being equal and as a function of nudging time. The impact of other numerical parameters, specifically the domain size and update frequency of the large-scale driving fields, on the sensitivity of the optimal nudging time is investigated. The nudged simulations are also compared to non-nudged simulations. Similarity between the reference and the simulations is evaluated for the surface temperature, surface wind and for rainfall, key variables for climate variability analysis and impact studies. These variables are located in the planetary boundary layer, which is not subject to nudging. Regarding the determination of a possible optimal nudging time, the conclusion is not the same for indiscriminate nudging (IN) and spectral nudging and depends on the update frequency of the driving large-scale fields τ. For IN, the optimal nudging time is around τ = 3 h for almost all cases. For spectral nudging, the best results are for the smallest value of τ used for the simulations (τ = 1 h) for frequent update of the driving large-scale fields (3 and 6 h). The optimal nudging time is 3 for 12 h interval between two consecutive driving large-scale fields due to time sampling errors. In terms of resemblance to the reference fields, the differences between the simulations performed with IN and spectral nudging are small. A possible reason for this very similar performance is that nudging is active only above the planetary boundary layer where small-scale features are less energetic. As expected from previous studies, the impact of nudging is weaker for a smaller domain size. However the optimal nudging time itself is not sensitive to domain size. The proposed strategy ensures a dynamical consistency between the driving field and the simulated small-scale field but it does not ensure the best 'observed' fine scale field because of the possible impact of incorrect driving large-scale field. This type of downscaling provides an upper bound on the skill possible for recent historical past and twenty-first century projections. The optimal nudging strategy with respect to dynamic downscaling could add skill whenever the parent global model has some level of skill. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Late Bronze Age world of the Eastern Mediterranean, a rich linkage of Aegean, Egyptian, Syro-Palestinian, and Hittite civilizations, collapsed famously 3200 years ago and has remained one of the mysteries of the ancient world since the event’s retrieval began in the late 19th century AD/CE. Iconic Egyptian bas-reliefs and graphic hieroglyphic and cuneiform texts portray the proximate cause of the collapse as the invasions of the “Peoples-of-the-Sea” at the Nile Delta, the Turkish coast, and down into the heartlands of Syria and Palestine where armies clashed, famine-ravaged cities abandoned, and countrysides depopulated. Here we report palaeoclimate data from Cyprus for the Late Bronze Age crisis, alongside a radiocarbon-based chronology integrating both archaeological and palaeoclimate proxies, which reveal the effects of abrupt climate change-driven famine and causal linkage with the Sea People invasions in Cyprus and Syria. The statistical analysis of proximate and ultimate features of the sequential collapse reveals the relationships of climate-driven famine, sea-borne-invasion, region-wide warfare, and politico-economic collapse, in whose wake new societies and new ideologies were created. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change involves warmer temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, increased climatic variability and, in Mediterranean regions, increased frequency and severity of droughts. Tree species may show different growth responses to these components of climatic change, which may trigger changes in forest composition and dominance. We assessed the influence of recent climatic changes on secondary growth of mature trees from four species co-occurring in a Mediterranean continental forest: Quercus ilex, Quercus faginea, Pinus nigra and Juniperus thurifera. We used dendrochronology to relate radial-growth variables [earlywood and latewood widths, basal area increment (BAI)] to annual and seasonal climatic variables for the period 1977-2007. Our results showed that Q. faginea BAI has declined, whereas J. thurifera BAI has increased over time while Q. ilex and P. nigra have maintained their growth rates. Growth was mainly favored by higher precipitations and tree size for all species. Reduced growth during extremely dry years was observed for all study species, but all of them except Q. faginea recovered their growth levels 2 years after drought. Our findings illustrate how the effects of climatic changes on growth should include analyses of seasonal climatic trends and extreme events such as severe droughts. We conclude that the seasonal timing of warming and precipitation alterations leading to drought events caused contrasting effects on growth of co-occurring Mediterranean tree species, compromising their future coexistence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mediterranean climate allows for rainfed cropping in the relatively moist cool period from autumn to late spring/early summer. Drought has a constant influence. Soil fertility was partly maintained by fallowing, nitrogen-fixing plants, and animal manures. Considerable changes have occurred due to land use pressure, i.e. decreasing fallow and increasing crop diversification, irrigation, and chemical inputs, especially chemical fertilizers. Generally, N use has increased about 20-fold, while phosphate has also increased significantly. Due to adequate reserves in the soils, there is a limited potassium fertilizer use. Awareness of the significance of micronutrients has developed. This presentation gives a broad overview of nutrients in relation to soil properties and crops, emphasizing nutrient dynamics in agroecosystems and nutrient use efficiency. Chemical fertilizers have contributed significantly to increasing crop output in the Mediterranean region. Fertilizers and nutrients are considered in the broadest sense, i.e. agricultural production, human and animal health, and the environment. Attention is given to the potential contribution of soil and cropping systems to the emission of greenhouse gasses and how soil management is likely to need to respond to the likelihood of climate change. Projections about future changes related to soil resources of the Mediterranean region are seen in the light of global trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The outputs of three GCMs, ECHAM5, CCSM3 and HadCM3, are downscaled for the eastern Mediterranean-Black Sea region for the period 1961-1990 using a regional climate model, RegCM3, to assess the capability of these models in simulating the climatology of the region. In addition, the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data are also downscaled for the same period to display the performance of the regional climate model for the same region, which constitutes a relatively complex terrain and rich variety of climates. The gridded observational dataset of CRU is primarily used in the evaluation of the models, however, a regional dataset, which is based on a relatively dense gauging network, is also used to see how it affects the performance measures of the models. The reanalysis simulation indicates that RegCM3 is able to simulate the precipitation and surface temperature as well as the upper level fields reasonably well. However, it tends to overestimate the precipitation over the mountainous areas. All three GCM models are found to be highly skilled in simulating the winter precipitation and temperature in the region. The two models, ECHAM5 and HadCM3, are also good at simulating the summer precipitation and temperature, but the CCSM3 simulation generates dryer and warmer conditions than the observations for the whole region, which are most likely a result of the dryness in the upper levels of the original outputs. The use of the regional observational dataset does not necessarily improve the pattern correlations, but it yields better match between the modeled and observed precipitation in terms of variability and root-mean-square difference. It could be said that the outputs of these GCMs can be used in the climate change downscaling and impact assessment studies for the region, given that their strengths and weaknesses that are displayed in the present study are considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have shown that climate anomalies over the North Atlantic-Europe (NAE) can influence the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) variability. It is, however, still an outstanding question whether the latter has a significant impact on the former. In this study, observational evidences indicate that the interannual variability of ISM is closely linked to the climate anomalies over NAE. A strong ISM is often associated with significant above normal precipitation over most of western Europe. Meanwhile, positive surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies are usually observed over the Mediterranean, accompanied by below normal SAT in Western Europe during a strong ISM summer. The situation is just opposite during a weak ISM summer. A global primitive equation model is utilized to assess the mechanism of the above observed connection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new precipitation and convection dataset for the Mediterranean Basin, derived from operational satellite microwave data is documented. The dataset is derived from diagnostics that rely on brightness temperatures measured since 1999 in the water vapour absorption line (183-- 191 GHz). The dataset consists of twice-daily (a.m. and p.m.) and monthly maps of precipitation and convection occurrences on a 0.2° latx0.2° long grid for the area 25°-- 60° N, 10°W--50° E. The instruments used so far are the AMSU-B sensor on the NOAA-15 to -17 satellites, and the MHS sensor on the NOAA-18 and -19 and METOP-2 satellites, with precipitation and convection available separately for the different sensors. The slightly different radiometric characteristics of MHS compared to AMSU-B do not affect significantly the continuity of the dataset. Precipitation and convection data from different sensors on different satellites are remarkably consistent, with generally small biases between the instruments. When larger biases appear, they can be explained either by the drifts in the satellite orbit, scan asymmetry, or temporal aliasing from insufficiently resolving the diurnal cycle of precipitation and convection. After a description of climatological aspects of rain and deep convection occurrence, the interest of this dataset to evaluate model uncertainties for simulating a high-impact weather event and for climatic regional runs over this area is illustrated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations and simulations of rainfall events are usually compared by analyzing (i) the total rainfall depth produced by the event and (ii) the location of the rainfall maximum. A different approach is proposed here that compares the mesoscale simulated rainfall fields with the ground rainfall observations within the multiscale framework of maximum intensity diagrams and severity diagrams. While the first simply displays the maximum rainfall intensity of an event at a number of scales, the second gives the frequency of occurrence of the maximum rainfall intensities as a function of the spatial and temporal aggregation scales, highlighting the space-time scales of the event severity. For use in a region featuring complex relief, severity diagrams have been generalized to incorporate the regional behavior of heavy rainfall events. To assess simulation outputs from a meteorological mesoscale model, three major storms that have occurred in the last decade over a mountainous Mediterranean region of southern France are analyzed. The severity diagrams detect the critical space-time scales of the rainfall events for comparison with those predicted by the simulation. This validation approach is adapted to evaluate the ability of the mesoscale model to predict various types of storms with different regional climatologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The generation of cyclone climatologies has recently received a renewed interest. Cyclones are closely related to the climate of certain regions, and thus, their variability is one of the key points in current climate research. The Mediterranean is a region with high density of cyclones, but due to its location and its particular morphology, cyclones are subject to large spatial and seasonal variability. Moreover, some cyclones are related to hazardous weather events, in particular, heavy precipitation and strong winds. Improved knowledge of Mediterranean cyclones would contribute to the improvement of the forecasts of such damaging events. In this study, objective detection and tracking algorithms are used on the ERA-40 reanalysis to derive a climatology of surface cyclones for the Mediterranean region. The detection algorithm is also applied at various vertical levels, characterizing the three-dimensional structure of the cyclones, and allowing to derive their vertical thickness. The relatively high spatial resolution, but mainly the long period (45 years) makes the ERA-40 reanalysis especially suitable for the generation of a cyclone climatology. The aim of this study is twofold. First, a detailed description of the Mediterranean surface cyclones is obtained. This includes the spatial and seasonal variability and some of their main individual features, like the intensity, size, vertical thickness and life cycle. Moreover, some regions with a large cyclogenetic frequency are studied in detail. Second, the results of the present climatology are compared with many other studies. The qualitative comparison indicates a general agreement with most of previous climatologies. However, as a consequence of the ERA-40 resolution, the comparison with high-resolution cyclone datasets shows a shortcoming related to the detection of small cyclones. Nevertheless, it is concluded that the current climatology depicts a comprehensive view of the synoptic and sub-synoptic cyclonic activities in the Mediterranean. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in precipitation patterns and the frequency and duration of drought are likely to be the feature of anthropogenic climate change that will have the most direct and most immediate consequences for human populations. The latest generation of state-of-the-art climate models project future widespread drying in the subtropics. Here, we reconstruct spatially-complete gridded Palmer drought severity index values back to A.D. 1179 over Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. The reconstructions provide long-term context for northwest African hydroclimatology, revealing large-scale regional droughts prior to the sixteenth century, as well as more heterogeneous patterns in sixteenth, eighteenth, and twentieth century. Over the most recent decades a shift toward dry conditions over the region is observed, which is consistent with general circulation model projections of greenhouse gas forced enhanced regional subtropical drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temporal precipitation irregularities, extreme rainfall, or droughts represent great climate concerns and have major impacts on the natural environment. The present study focuses on 41 stations spread over the entire Mediterranean region. The datasets contain daily rainfall totals, with a median length of 56 years within the period of 1931-2006. The study aims at detecting significant trends in the time series and the uncertainties of four parameters: annual rainfall total, number of rain spells, the rain-spells yields, and rainy season length. In addition, it aims to detect significant temporal changes in the occurrence of extreme events of these parameters. Several methodologies have been used in this study, and the main conclusion is that despite the general assumption of tremendous changes in the rainfall regime, no significant temporal trends or uncertainty trends were found in most of the stations, neither in their annual totals, their number of rain spells, and their rain-spell yields, nor in their rainy season length. However, in the few cases that a significant trend was detected, former years tended to be wetter, longer, and with more abundant rain spells, while the opposite is seen in the later years; and uncertainty, tends to increase more than to decrease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extremes of precipitation and river flow obtained using three different statistical downscaling methods applied to the same regional climate simulation have been compared. The methods compared are the anomaly method, quantile mapping and a weather typing. The hydrological model used in the study is distributed and it is applied to the Mediterranean basins of France. The study shows that both quantile mapping and weather typing methods are able to reproduce the high and low precipitation extremes in the region of interest. The study also shows that when the hydrological model is forced with these downscaled data, there are important differences in the outputs. This shows that the model amplifies the differences and that the downscaling of other atmospheric variables might be very relevant when simulating river discharges. In terms of river flow, the method of the anomalies, which is very simple, performs better than expected. The methods produce qualitatively similar future scenarios of the extremes of river flow. However, quantitatively, there are still significant differences between them for each individual gauging station. According to these scenarios, it is expected that in the middle of the 21st century (2035-2064), the monthly low flows will have diminished almost everywhere in the region of our study by as much as 20 %. Regarding high flows, there will be important increases in the area of the Cévennes, which is already seriously affected by flash-floods. For some gauging stations in this area, the frequency of what was a 10-yr return flood at the end of the 20th century is expected to increase, with such return floods then occurring every two years in the middle of the 21st century. Similarly, the 10-yr return floods at that time are expected to carry 100 % more water than the 10-yr return floods experienced at the end of the 20th century. In the northern part of the Rh6ne basin, these extremes will be reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Average monthly precipitation, the original Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and a recent adaptation to Europe, the Self Calibrated PDSI (scPDSI) have been used here to analyse the spatial and temporal evolution of drought conditions in the Mediterranean during the 20th century. Monthly, seasonal and annual trends were computed for the period 1901-2000 and also for the first and second halves of this period. The statistical significance of trends was obtained with a modified version of the Mann-Kendall test that accounts for serial auto-correlation. The results show a clear trend towards drier conditions during the 20th century in most western and central Mediterranean regions, with the exceptions of northwestern Iberia and most of Turkey that reveal an increase of moisture availability. A Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) analysis was applied to the maximum and minimum regional values of scPDSI, with results pointing towards a significant decline of absolute extreme values in central areas (Italy and Balkans) and a less clear picture emerging in western (Iberia) and eastern (Turkey) realms. The inter-annual variability of the scPDSI index series is shown to be more realistic than the corresponding PDSI version, fitting better the drought episodes sequence and magnitude described in the literature for each sub-region. We assess the decadal and inter-annual variability of the scPDSI for each sub-domain and evaluate the role played by the major teleconnection patterns, and by several sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The main driver of scPDSI in western and central Mediterranean areas is the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern that is also relevant during the following spring and summer seasons with anti-correlation values below -0.60. The second most important mode corresponds to the Scandinavian Pattern that is significantly associated to the scPDSI between winter and summer over central Mediterranean (correlation values around 0.50). Finally, the teleconnection and SST analysis has allowed us to calibrate a stepwise regression model, enabling the forecasting of summer drought conditions six months in advance. The final model obtained is capable of reproducing the observed scPDSI time series fairly well, with a correlation coefficient of 0.79 (0.77 after cross-validation) and a significant gain over climatology (SSc=59%), while the corresponding result against persistence is more modest (SSp6=11%). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]