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Gridded precipitation (PRP) data have been largely used in diagnostic studies on the climate variability in several time scales, as well as to validate model results. The three most used gauge-based PRP datasets are from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), University of Delaware (UDEL), and Climate Research Unit (CRU). This paper evaluates the performance of these datasets in reproducing spatiotemporal PRP climatological features over the entire South America (SA) for the 1901–2015 period, aiming to identify the differences and similarities among the datasets as well as time intervals and areas with potential uncertainties involved with these datasets. Comparisons of the PRP annual means and variances between the 1901–2015 period and the non-overlapping 30-year subperiods of 1901–1930, 1931–1960, 1961–1990, and the 25-year subperiod of 1991–2015 for each dataset show varying means of the annual PRP over SA depending on the subperiod and dataset. Consistent patterns among datasets are found in most of southeastern SA and southeastern Brazil, where they evolved gradually from less to more rainy conditions from 1901–1930 to the 1991–2015 subperiod. All three datasets present limitations and uncertainties in regions with poor coverage of gauge stations, where the differences among datasets are more pronounced. In particular, the GPCC presents reduced PRP variability in an extensive area west of 50° W and north of 20° S during the 1901–1930 subperiod. In monthly time scale, PRP time series in two areas show differences among the datasets for periods before 1941, which are likely due to spurious or missing data: central Bolivia (CBO), and central Brazil (CBR). The GPCC has less monthly variability before 1940 than the other two datasets in these two areas, and UDEL presents reduced monthly variability before 1940 and spurious monthly values from May to September of the years from 1929 to 1941 in CBO. Thus, studies with these three datasets might lead to different results depending on the study domain and period of analysis, in particular for those including years before 1941. The results here might be relevant for future diagnostic and modelling studies on climate variability from interannual to multidecadal time scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rise in the Earth's global average surface temperature and the increase of extreme weather events have been the focus of scientific discussion in the last decades. Extreme heat combined with other environmental extremes, like high concentrations of air pollution, may induce health problems—especially in socioeconomically vulnerable populations. Spring in South America requires particular attention due to its association with hot, dry weather and air pollution in most parts of the continent. This paper intends to better comprehend the behaviour of heatwaves during the austral winter–spring transition. We propose identifying the spatial coverage, frequency and intensity of heatwaves in homogeneous areas of maximum air temperature near the surface (Tmax). We employed cluster analyses during the period between July and October for 41 years (1979–2019) through the ERA5 reanalysis. Homogeneous Tmax areas in South America were defined by cluster analyses that indicated three homogeneous Tmax regions, as follows: a larger area of the continent including the tropical region (Area 1), eastern and southeastern South America (Area 2) and southernmost and steep areas in the Andes (Area 3). The heatwave events identified via ERA5 reanalysis were classified according to their intensity (intense, moderate and weak events). Spatial frequency and trend analyses were also performed regarding the intensity and persistence of heatwave episodes. These methods allowed the identification of the behavioural aspect of heatwaves spanning the last four decades. The Mann–Kendall statistical test (MK) was applied in order to analyse the heatwave trend with a statistical significance level of 5%. A total of 191 heatwave episodes were identified. Of this total, 47.12, 35.60 and 17.28% of episodes occurred in Areas 2, 3 and 1, respectively. The hotter area extending from northeast to southwest in central South America stood out by its largest frequencies of intense heatwave episodes. Across the continent there was a significant increase in the intensity and persistence of heatwaves over the period of 1979 through to 2019. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the existence of convergence in residential water consumption across geographical regions using econometric methods taken from the economic growth literature and a panel of water consumption of 348 Chilean localities from 2010 to 2015. Convergence was found, and the main causes were factors related to economic and climate variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents new modeling evidence showing the added value of high-resolution information from South America (SA) in the simulation of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical circulation. LMDZ, a coarse-resolution atmospheric global general circulation model constitutes the main tool for this investigation. Parallel to the control simulation, a two-way nesting (TWN) simulation of LMDZ is performed with an interactive coupling to the same model, but with a higher-resolution zoom over SA. The third simulation is a perfect boundary simulation for which re-analysis information from ERA-Interim is used to nudge LMDZ, but only over SA. Results indicate that enhanced resolution over SA improves the representation of the most important processes that influence extratropical eddy activity. The local improvement is followed by a better representation of the global extratropical circulation, especially in austral summer. The regional climate enhancement over SA has positive effects on simulation of the midlatitude jet position during the austral summer by significantly reducing the bias of the mean zonal kinetic energy outside the nudged zone. On the other hand, the wintertime general circulation outside the nudged-zone shows a limited bias-reduction for the regional-driven simulations, especially in the case of the TWN system. However, improvements of the TWN system compared to the control experiment are noticed in early stages of cyclone lifecycle, as it is identified in a better simulation of transient meridional heat transport and transient kinetic energy intensity. The findings of the present study suggest, thus, that improvements in resolution over SA effectively excite the simulation of the mean atmospheric circulation in the SH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Anuario do Instituto de Geociencias is the property of Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Instituto de Geociencias and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

On a hemispheric scale, it is now well established that stratospheric ozone depletion has been the principal driver of externally forced atmospheric circulation changes south of the Equator in the last decades of the 20th Century. The impact of ozone depletion has been felt over the entire hemisphere, as reflected in the poleward drift of the midlatitude jet, the southward expansion of the summertime Hadley cell and accompanying precipitation trends deep into the subtropics. On a regional scale, however, surface impacts directly attributable to ozone depletion have yet to be identified. In this paper we focus on South Eastern South America (SESA), a region that has exhibited one of the largest wetting trends during the 20th Century. We study the impact of ozone depletion on SESA precipitation using output from 6 different climate models, spanning a wide range of complexity. In all cases we contrast pairs of model integrations with and without ozone depletion, but with all other forcings identically specified. This allows for unambiguous attribution of the computed precipitation trends. All 6 climate models consistently reveal that stratospheric ozone depletion results in a significant wetting of SESA over the period 1960-1999. Taken as a whole, these model results strongly suggest that the impact of ozone depletion on SESA precipitation has been as large as, and quite possibly larger than, the one caused by increasing greenhouse gases over the same period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper extends the work of Dinku and Anagnostou overland rain retrieval algorithm for use with Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) observations. In Dinku and Anagnostou, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) rainfall estimates were used to calibrate TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) retrieval. Regional differences in PR-based TMI calibration were investigated by testing the algorithm over four geographic regions, consisting of Africa, northern South America (containing the Amazon basin), the continental United States, and south Asia. In this paper the performance of Dinku and Anagnostou's technique applied on SSM/I data over three of these regions (Africa, Amazon, and South Asia) is demonstrated. Two approaches are investigated for using PR rainfall products to calibrate the algorithm parameters. In the first approach, TMI channels are remapped to the spatial resolutions of the corresponding SSM/I channels; then, PR is used to calibrate the rain retrieval on the remapped TMI data. In the second approach, the PR-based TMI algorithm calibration is performed at a coarser (0.25°) resolution. To assess the quality of algorithm estimates with respect to PR, rainfall fields derived from Dinku and Anagnostou, applied to SSM/I observations (using parameters determined from both approaches), are compared with matched (within ±15 min of the satellites' overpass time difference) PR surface rain rates. Calibration data come from the wet seasons (January–March) of 2000 and 2001. To assess the quality of the estimates with respect to PR, data from a 5-month period (December–April) of 2002, 2003, and 2004 are used. In comparison with the latest version of the Goddard profiling (GPROF) algorithm rain estimates, the current algorithm shows significant improvements in terms of both bias and random error reduction. The paper also shows that rain estimation based on TMI observations is associated with lower error statistics in comparison with the corresponding SSM/I retrievals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts are already happening through the world, and it is now clear that there is the need for an adaptive response from global institutions down to the local level. Reducing vulnerability to cope with climate variability might be more challenging in tropical countries than in North America or Europe. The ten papers of this special issue were presented during the Adaptclim conference that was held by the Sinergia Project, the CLARIS LPB project, and the GeoData Institute in Asunción, Paraguay, in 2010. All papers, except one regarding the Brahmaputra Basin in South Asia, present studies from South America. These studies are first contextualized geographically and then are related one to another by a simplified vulnerability concept linking climate stress to sensitivity and adaptive capacity of natural and human systems. One half of the papers focus on actual or future climate change and the present-day causes of the vulnerability of natural and agrosystems. Droughts are and will be the main source of stress for agriculture in South America. Increasing fragmentation of forest of the center of this continent is aggravating their vulnerability to dry spells. Another half of the studies of this special issue deal with the adaptive capacity human populations to system perturbations produced or enhanced by climate change. The studies point out inclusion of traditional knowledge and involvement of local actors in their own vulnerability assessment to increase adaptive capacity. These elements of climate justice, giving voice to those less responsible for carbon emissions but bearing their most severe consequences, allow the particular needs of a community to be considered and can direct adaptation policy toward preserving or rebuilding their specific capabilities under threat from climate change. The special issue also made clear that a basin analysis of the climate change problem could provide information, results, and methods more readily of use for the local population and decision makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the relations between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode in the tropical Pacific and the sea surface temperature (SST) modes in the South Atlantic for the 1900-2006 period. In the South Atlantic, two modes are analysed in more detail: the South Atlantic dipole (SAD) mode, with centres at (15°S, Greenwich longitude) and at (37.5°S, 25°W) and the southwestern South Atlantic (SWSA) mode, with centres at (30°S, 40°W) and at the southern midlatitudes. The ENSO and SAD modes are lagged or lead connected depending on the period of analysis. An El Niño (a La Niña) precedes by up to 6 months the establishment of a positive (negative) SAD mode during the 1920-1930 and 1940-1980 periods. Otherwise, a positive (negative) SAD mode precedes by up to 1 year the establishment of a La Niña (El Niño) during the 1975-2000 period. On the other hand, the SWSA is strongly driven by the ENSO. The effects of both the SAD and SWSA modes on the South American rainfall are also discussed on a seasonal basis. In general, the SAD (ENSO) mode has a weak influence on the ENSO-related (SAD-related) rainfall anomalies over South America. On the other hand, in general, the SWSA and ENSO modes have a combined effect on rainfall of the southern and southeastern regions of South America. A particularly important result of the present analysis for climate monitoring and forecasting purposes seems to be the changing relations between the SAD and ENSO modes. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines moisture transport on intraseasonal timescales over the continent and over the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) during the South America (SA) summer monsoon. Combined Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOFc) of Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad precipitation, specific humidity, air temperature, zonal and meridional winds at 850 hPa (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) are performed to identify the large-scale variability of the South America monsoon system and the SACZ. The first EOFc was used as a large-scale index for the South American monsoon (LISAM), whereas the second EOFc characterized the SACZ. LISAM (SACZ) index showed spectral variance on 30-90 (15-20) days and were both band filtered (10-100 days). Intraseasonal wet anomalies were defined when LISAM and SACZ anomalies were above the 75th percentile of their respective distribution. LISAM and SACZ wet events were examined independently of each other and when they occur simultaneously. LISAM wet events were observed with the amplification of wave activity in the Northern Hemisphere and the enhancement of northwesterly cross-equatorial moisture transport over tropical continental SA. Enhanced SACZ was observed with moisture transport from the extratropics of the Southern Hemisphere. Simultaneous LISAM and SACZ wet events are associated with cross-equatorial moisture transport along with moisture transport from Subtropical Southwestern Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Albedo is an important factor affecting global climate, but uncertainty in the sources and magnitudes of albedo change has led to simplistic treatments of albedo in climate models. Here, the authors examine nine years (2000--08) of historical 1-km Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) albedo estimates across South America to advance understanding of the magnitude and sources of large-scale albedo changes. The authors use the magnitude of albedo change from the arc of deforestation along the southeastern edge of the Brazilian Amazon (++2.8%%) as a benchmark for comparison. Large albedo increases (>++2.8%%) were 2.2 times more prevalent than similar decreases throughout South America. Changes in surface water drove most large albedo changes that were not caused by vegetative cover change. Decreased surface water in the Santa Fe and Buenos Aires regions of Argentina was responsible for albedo increases exceeding that of the arc of deforestation in magnitude and extent. Although variations in the natural flooding regimes were likely the dominant mechanism driving changes in surface water, it is possible that human manipulations through dams and other agriculture infrastructure contributed. This study demonstrates the substantial role that land-cover and surface water change can play in continental-scale albedo trends and suggests ways to better incorporate these processes into global climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses water availability and use within and between the Challenge Program on Water and Food basins. It describes the main features of water demand and supply in the basins and indicates where there are deficits and opportunities for development of water resources. A typology of basin water resources status uses a range of global spatial datasets. The main outcomes of basin activities on water availability are identified. Interbasin assessment of water availability is very challenging for such very large basins, due in large part to difficulties in collecting and integrating local data sets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Anuario do Instituto de Geociencias is the property of Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Instituto de Geociencias and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The Andes as mountain regions worldwide, provide fundamental resources, not only for the local population. Due to the topographic characteristics, the potential for natural hazards is higher than elsewhere. In these areas, assessments of climate change impacts and the development of adequate adaptation strategies therefore become particular important. The data basis, however, is often scarce. Moreover, perceptions of changes and needs are often divergent between national and local levels, which make the implementation of adaptation measures a challenge. Taking the Peruvian Andes as an example, this paper aims at initiating a discussion about scientific baseline and integrative concepts needed to deal with the adverse effects of climate change in mountain regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to investigate the longevity and diversity of the Amazonian rainforest and to assess its likely future. Palaeoclimate and palaeoecological records suggest that the Amazon rainforest originated in the late Cretaceous and has been a permanent feature of South America for at least the last 55 million years. The Amazon rainforest has survived the high temperatures of the Early Eocene climate optimum, the gradual Cenozoic cooling, and the drier and lower carbon dioxide levels of the Quaternary glacial periods. Two new theories for the great diversity of the Amazon rainforest are discussed – the canopy density hypothesis and the precessional-forced seasonality hypothesis. We suggest the Amazon rainforest should not be viewed as a geologically ephemeral feature of South America, but rather as a constant feature of the global Cenozoic biosphere. The forest is now, however, entering a set of climatic conditions with no past analogue. The predicted future hotter and more arid tropical climates may have a disastrous effect on the Amazon rainforest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective combination schemes of predictions from different models have been applied to seasonal climate forecasts. These schemes are successful in producing a deterministic forecast superior to individual member models and better than the multi-model ensemble mean forecast. Recently, a variant of the conventional superensemble formulation was created to improve skills for seasonal climate forecasts, the Florida State University (FSU) Synthetic Superensemble. The idea of the synthetic algorithm is to generate a new data set from the predicted multimodel datasets for multiple linear regression. The synthetic data is created from the original dataset by finding a consistent spatial pattern between the observed analysis and the forecast data set. This procedure is a multiple linear regression problem in EOF space. The main contribution this paper is to discuss the feasibility of seasonal prediction based on the synthetic superensemble approach and to demonstrate that the use of this method in coupled models dataset can reduce the errors of seasonal climate forecasts over South America. In this study, a suite of FSU coupled atmospheric oceanic models was used. In evaluation the results from the FSU synthetic superensemble demonstrate greater skill for most of the variables tested here. The forecast produced by the proposed method out performs other conventional forecasts. These results suggest that the methodology and database employed are able to improve seasonal climate prediction over South America when compared to the use of single climate models or from the conventional ensemble averaging. The results show that anomalous conditions simulated over South America are reasonably realistic. The negative (positive) precipitation anomalies for the summer monsoon season of 1997/98 (2001/02) were predicted by Synthetic Superensemble formulation quite well. In summary, the forecast produced by the Synthetic Superensemble approach outperforms the other conventional forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work presents results which help to understand the behaviour of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies over the South America continent during the two strongest El Niño events of the last century (1982-1983 and 1997-1998). The data used are parts of a long-term series (July 1981 to December 1999) of calibrated NDVI data derived from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA AVHRR) datasets. Special emphasis has been given to the analysis of the response of the major Brazilian vegetation types. This paper introduces an approach that enhances NDVI anomalies relative to the long-term climatology of the region. We find a negative NDVI anomaly for most of the region during the 1982-1983 event, whereas for the 1997-1998 event positive NDVI anomalies were observed over most regions. Only the 'Nordeste' region showed a similar vegetation response for both events. We identify three possible factors that may play a role in the different NDVI responses to the two El Niño events. Firstly, poor intercalibration of sensors may account for some, but not all of the differences. Secondly the response of the vegetation may depend upon the climate conditions prior to the El Niño events. Thirdly, the difference in the onset date and the duration of the mature phase of the two El Niño events, associated with very different Atlantic surface temperatures are shown to have dynamical consequences which may impact upon the vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper a methodology is proposed to downscale coarse-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) seasonal simulations. Anomaly nesting involves replacing the climatology of the driving AGCM with observed (in this case the National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis) climatology at the lateral boundaries of the nested regional climate model (the regional spectral model). In this study the methodology is tested over South America and the neighboring ocean basins. A comparison of the austral summer seasonal simulation with the conventional way of nesting, namely driving the regional model with full AGCM forcing, reveals that substantial gains in the deterministic skill are realized through anomaly nesting. It is also shown that the high-frequency variance (at 3–30- and 30–40-day time scales) is more realistic from the anomaly nesting procedure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This second paper of a three-part series documents the ability of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) to successfully replicate some known aspects of the rainfall of northwestern South America. The success of the control simulation justifies the use of the model in Part III for sensitivity experiments and more detailed diagnosis. The simulation is produced using multiply nested grids, with grid increments from 72 km down to 2 km. Three coarser-resolution grids are integrated for a period of 10 days, with the finest-resolution grid run for a 2-day subset of that period. Several features of the rainfall field are examined as metrics of the model's performance. On the largest scales, the model reasonably simulates easterly waves in the western Atlantic and Caribbean, although it tends to develop them into tropical cyclones too readily. Over the Amazon River basin, diurnally initiated rainbands are observed to propagate westward, crossing the basin in 2-3 days. The simulation contains a similar phenomenon, whose propagation appears to involve both moisture advection and ducted gravity wave dynamics in the presence of an easterly jet near the 700-hPa level. On a finer scale, the model replicates the diurnal shift in precipitation across the west coast of Colombia, with afternoon and evening convection over land, and oceanic convection that begins immediately offshore after midnight and moves out to sea through the morning. On the finest scale, the simulation contains what appears to be a hydraulic jump, as the leading edge of the cool maritime air of the sea breeze surmounts the low coastal mountain range and flows eastward into the Atrato valley, to the foot of the Western Cordillera of the Andes. A similar feature has been previously documented to occur in a narrow valley in western Colombia, between north-south-oriented ridges of similar dimension and distance inland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with the relationship between the interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) and its associated atmospheric circulation and rainfall variability over southeastern South America (SSA), namely the subtropical region east of the Andes between 20° and 4°S, during the austral spring. Rainfall in SSA and SST interannual variability is studied using canonical correlation analysis. The first two modes show the wellknown warm-wet and cold-dry pattern between the equatorial SST and rainfall over most of this part of the world. However, SST in the equatorial regions does not modulate rainfall variability among El Niño (EN) years or among La Niña (LN) years. On the other hand, it does modulate this variability between EN and LN cases as a whole and among neutral cases indicating that the SSA rainfall response to equatorial Pacific SST is not linear over the observed SST range, having no dependence on the extremes of this range. In contrast, among EN events, SST in the subtropical south-central Pacific (SSCP) modulates the seasonal rainfall over most of SSA. Also, when all the years are considered, this SST has a correlation with precipitation of magnitude similar to those corresponding to the SST in EN regions. Consistent with this, the circulation field has enhanced cyclonic (anticyclonic) advection over subtropical SSA when SST in the SSCP is cold (warm). SSTs in EN-3 or EN-3.4 regions and in the SSCP are negatively correlated, but their correlation is practically zero when only EN cases or only neutral cases are considered, and very small in LN cases. This allows a stratification analysis composing cases according to different SSTs in EN-3 and EN-3.4 regions with almost constant SST in the SSCP and similarly according to different SST in the SSCP with approximately constant SST in EN regions. The composite difference fields with constant equatorial SST and with constant SST in the SSCP have a wave train in the Pacific... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of testing the homogeneity of the basic data used in this study, that is, the mean monthly maximum and minimum temperature (as derived from daily observations) of several long-term climatological stations of Venezuela and Colombia, and an evaluation of the fluctuations and deviations from long-term means of such parameters, as well as of the diurnal temperature ranges (DTR) during the 73-yr period, 1918-90. The 14 longest-term climatological stations in Venezuela and Colombia with available metadata and the most consistent temperature records were used. Homogeneity tests were done by application of the Alexandersson's Test. Eleven stations (the ones with less inhomogeneities) were finally left for partial data adjustments of their records when needed (only a few of them), following the technique developed by Easterling and Peterson. Then, the temperature trends and deviations from long-term averages (1918-90) were determined. The most remarkable feature of the analysis is a relative and sustained increase of the minimum temperature series and a DTR decrease during the last 25 yr of the period at a significant rate in most of the station records. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global impacts of El Niño on precipitation have been long‐recognized, but more understanding of the mechanisms behind this influence is needed. For instance, previous studies have largely overlooked the potential impacts of El Niño on terrestrial moisture recycling (TMR). We perform a 40‐year forward tracking simulation to derive a global climatology of recycled precipitation and use a composite analysis to investigate how El Niño affects TMR. We identify seven regions where the El Niño impact on TMR is most significant and find that, in these regions, changes in precipitation and TMR are directly related: they increase or decrease together. In addition, we find a marked latitudinal contrast between the Southern Hemisphere, where TMR increases during El Niño, and the Northern Hemisphere and the tropics, where it decreases. Our results indicate that the weakening and strengthening of TMR can be behind precipitation changes caused by El Niño globally. Plain Language Summary: El Niño is recognized as a climate variability phenomenon with significant impacts on precipitation worldwide. However, the mechanisms behind these impacts are not fully understood. Here we use model simulations to argue that one of those mechanisms is the effect of El Niño on terrestrial moisture recycling (TMR), that is, the fraction of precipitation fed by atmospheric moisture originating not in the ocean but on the continents. We show that El Niño significantly affects TMR globally, especially in seven regions of South America, Africa, North America, Europe, and Asia. In these regions, precipitation and TMR increase or decrease together. We find a contrast between the South and North of the planet: during El Niño, TMR increases in the Southern Hemisphere while decreasing in the Northern Hemisphere and the tropics. Overall, our results indicate that TMR weakening or strengthening are previously overlooked mechanisms behind precipitation changes caused by El Niño globally. Key Points: El Niño exerts significant effects on terrestrial moisture recycling worldwideEl Niño's impacts on terrestrial moisture recycling are most significant in seven regions worldwidePrecipitation and terrestrial moisture recycling increase or decrease together due to El Niño [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we assess the performance of the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) in simulating the climatology of the cyclones near the west coast of South America. The synoptic evolution and seasonality of these systems are thoroughly investigated. The analyses are based on four simulations from the CORDEX-CORE Southern America (SA) domain, at 0.25° of horizontal resolution: one driven by ERA-Interim and three driven by different GCMs. The reference dataset is represented by ERA5. Cyclones were detected by an objective scheme in the period 1995–2005 and classified in three different classes: (i) Coastal Lows (CLs) and cyclones affecting the coast (CAC) (ii) crossing and (iii) not crossing the Andes. In general, RegCM4 is able to reproduce the climatology of cyclones affecting the western coast of SA. In particular: (i) CLs are shown to be more frequent in austral summer although their frequency is underestimated by the simulations in this season; (ii) CAC not crossing the Andes represent 76% of all CAC and are more frequent in winter, with simulation underestimating their frequency by ~ 22% due to the differences in the simulated upper-level jets, which tend to get weaker (by ~ 5–10 m s− 1) northwards of 30°S; (iii) the frequency of CAC crossing the Andes tends to be overestimated mainly in winter, which is associated with the combination of the stronger upper-level jets and weaker SLP in the simulations, especially southwards of 40°S. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper summarizes the calibration and validation of a 35-year wave hindcast database used to create the Chilean Wave Atlas. The hindcast was generated with the Wavewatch III wave model and consists of: i) time series of wave statistical parameters in a 1° × 1° grid throughout the Pacific Ocean; ii) spectral data at points latitudinally spaced every 2° off the Chilean coast. A comprehensive calibration process was undertaken in order to assess the performance of statistical parameters at different locations under normal and extreme conditions. A multi-criteria performance score was defined to select the optimal Wavewatch III model configuration. Few buoy records available and a broad set of satellite data were used in this process. A correction method was then applied to the statistical parameters in order to reduce systematic errors of the model. The Atlas showed better performance when compared to existing databases under normal wave conditions. However, the accuracy was shown to be lesser for the highest wave heights, consistently following the behaviour of other databases. This deficiency in the estimate of extreme values has important consequences in the design of coastal structures, and its improvement remains to be solved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Overshooting cloud tops (OTs) form in deep convective storms when strong updrafts overshoot the tropopause. An OT is a well-known indicator of convective updrafts and severe weather conditions. Here, we develop an OT detection algorithm using thermal infrared (IR) channels and apply this algorithm to about 20 years' worth of MODIS data from both Terra and Aqua satellites to form an extensive, near-global climatology of OT occurrences. The algorithm is based on a logistic model which is trained using A-Train observations. We demonstrate that the overall accuracy of our approach is about 0.9 when the probability of the OT candidates is larger than 0.9. The OT climatology reveals a pattern that follows the climatology of deep convection and shallow convection over the midlatitude oceans during winter cold-air outbreaks. OTs appear most frequently over the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), central and southeastern North America, tropical and subtropical South America, southeastern and southern Asia, tropical and subtropical Africa, and northern middle–high latitudes. OT spatial distributions show strong seasonal and diurnal variabilities. Seasonal OT variations shift with large-scale climate systems such as the ITCZ and local monsoonal systems, including the South Asian monsoon, North American monsoon, and West African monsoon. OT diurnal variations agree with the known diurnal cycle of convection. Maximum OT occurrences are in the afternoon over most land areas and around midnight over ocean, and the OT diurnal cycle is stronger and more varied over land than over ocean. OTs over land are usually colder than over ocean, except at around 10:30 LT (Equator-crossing time). The top 10 coldest OTs from both Terra and Aqua mostly occur over land and at night. This study provides OT climatology for the first time, as derived from 2 decades of MODIS data, that represents the longest and stable satellite records. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An updated climatology for the occurrence of blockings in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) using daily reanalysis data from 1948–2021 is presented. Geopotential height (z) at 500 hPa was the working variable. The blocking index (BI) was defined for every 2.5° of longitude whenever z (35 °   S) − z (50 °   S) < 0 . The results were organized in longitudinal bands of a width of 10° in order to compare them with previous findings. The primary region for the occurrence of blockings was located around the date line, with a secondary region in southern South America (SSA) and its vicinities, with a third-rank region situated in southern Africa and its surroundings. The results were also stratified by the intensity and duration (persistence) of the events, and the annual and seasonal differences were discussed. Additionally, three different areas were defined to study the distribution of the blockings therein, with the Pacific region (110° E–80° W) having the maximum intensities and longest durations. Linear trends were estimated for the annual and the seasonal time series of the BI and for the number of episodes. On an annual basis, more frequent and the strongest events are expected at 180° E and their surroundings in the future. An alternative BI, using radiosonde data, was built for SSA at 58.50° W. The time evolution of this index was in general agreement with the one estimated from the reanalysis data at some longitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, a challenge in Climate Science is the seasonal forecast and knowledge of the model's performance in different regions. The challenge in South America reflects its huge territory; some models present a good performance, and others do not. Nevertheless, reliable seasonal climate forecasts can benefit numerous decision-making processes related to agriculture, energy generation, and extreme events mitigation. Thus, given the few works assessing the ECMWF-SEAS5 performance in South America, this study investigated the quality of its seasonal temperature and precipitation predictions over the continent. For this purpose, predictions from all members of the hindcasts (1993–2016) and forecasts (2017–2021) ensemble were used, considering the four yearly seasons. The analyses included seasonal mean fields, bias correction, anomaly correlations, statistical indicators, and seasonality index. The best system's performance occurred in regions strongly influenced by teleconnection effects, such as northern South America and northeastern Brazil, in which ECMWF-SEAS5 even reproduced the extreme precipitation anomalies that happened in recent decades. Moreover, the system indicated a moderate capability of seasonal predictions in medium and low predictability regions. In summary, the results show that ECMWF-SEAS5 climate forecasts are potentially helpful and should be considered to plan various strategic activities better. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the relationship between the frequency of occurrence of the Orinoco low-level jet (OLLJ) and hydroclimatic variables over northern South America. We use data from the ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of the OLLJ in light of the low-level jet (LLJ) classification criteria available in the literature. An index for the frequency of occurrence of an LLJ was used, based on the hourly maxima of wind speed. The linkages among the OLLJ, water vapor flux, and precipitation were analyzed using a composite analysis. Our results show that during December–February (DJF), the OLLJ exhibits its maximum wind speed, with values around 8–10 m s−1. During DJF, the analysis shows how the OLLJ transports atmospheric moisture from the tropical North Atlantic Ocean. During this season, the predominant pathway of the OLLJ is associated with an area of moisture flux divergence located over northeastern South America. During June–August (JJA), an area of moisture flux convergence associated with the northernmost location of the ITCZ inhibits the entrance of moisture from northerlies. We also show that the occurrence of the OLLJ is associated with the so-called cross-equatorial flow. During DJF, the period of strongest activity of the OLLJ is associated with the northerly cross-equatorial flow and dry season, whereas during JJA the southerly cross-equatorial flow from the Amazon River basin predominates and contributes to the rainy season over the Orinoco region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Several regions of the world have developed capability in providing services on climate information for risk management, but there are still gaps in service delivery due to inadequate information regarding the needs within the regions. This paper highlights the role of Regional Climate Outlook Forums, assesses the needs for some regions and extracts examples of how regional associations could benefit through the provision of better climate services. Problems are given for Africa, South-East Asia, South America, the Pacific and Europe. Different geographical climate features lead to different climate phenomena and in turn determine the type of climate delivery needs for risk management. Short discussions of regional socio-economic factors that shape the needs for climate information provide further context for the unique character of delivery services. Recommendations and future plans follow this assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Moisture is transported in South America westward from the tropical Atlantic Ocean to the Amazon basin, and then southward toward the extratropics. A regional intensification of this circulation to the east of the Andes Mountains is called the South American low-level jet (SALLJ), with the strongest winds found over eastern Bolivia. SALLJ is present all year and channels moisture to the La Plata basin, which is analogous to the better-known Amazon basin in terms of its biological and habitat diversity, and far exceeds the latter in its economic importance to southern and central South America in terms of hydroelectricity and food production. The relatively small SALLJ spatial scale (compared with the density of the available sounding network) has a limited understanding of and modeling capability for any variations in the SALLJ intensity and structure as well as its possible relationship to downstream rainfall. The SALLJ Experiment (SALLJEX), aimed at describing many aspects of SALLJ, was carried out between 15 November 2002 and 15 February 2003 in Bolivia, Paraguay, central and northern Argentina, western Brazil, and Peru. Scientists, collaborators, students, National Meteorological Service personnel, and local volunteers from South American countries and the United States participated in SALLJEX activities in an unprecedented way, because SALLJEX was the most extensive meteorological field activity to date in subtropical South America, and was the first World Climate Research Program/ Climate Variability and Prediction Program international campaign in South America. This paper describes the motivation for the field activity in the region, the special SALLJEX observations, and SALLJEX modeling and outreach activities. We also describe some preliminary scientific conclusions and discuss some of the remaining questions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents an assessment of the ability of the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2—Earth system configuration (HadGEM2-ES)—in simulating the mid-latitude storm tracks over the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The storm tracks are primarily assessed using cyclone tracking using data from a 4 member ensemble of 27-year simulations of HadGEM2-ES over the historical period, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis. Both winter and summer periods are considered and contrasted. Results show that the storm track (ST) climatology of HadGEM2-ES presents similar patterns to those of the reanalysis. However, the model tends to represent the austral winter ST position with an equatorward bias and a zonal bias in the spiral towards the pole. The main differences were found during the austral winter, with large track density biases over the Indian Ocean indicating a poor representation of the ST in this specific region. This was found to be related to two factors. First, the large negative genesis biases over South America, Antarctic Peninsula and the Antarctic coast. Second, the model resolution and the representation of the Andes Mountains in South America. The link between STs and the large-scale circulation is examined and shows at upper levels an equatorward jet position bias of the subtropical jet and a negative bias in the eddy-driven, associated with a large cold bias over the extratropical and polar regions. The analysis of the large-scale circulation shows that the split jet during winter has problems in the model linked to these biases, including geopotential anomaly and sea surface temperature biases. Consequently, in general the track densities over the Southern oceans are underestimated in the austral winter. During summer, the results show the STs move poleward and there is a single eddy-driven jet, which is represented relatively well compared with the winter situation. These factors tend to reduce the differences seen in the cyclone track distribution biases. Although the model has biases in the ST behaviour in the SH it is still considered that these do not preclude this model being used for perturbation and future projection studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study is to assess the ability of a set of large ensembles (LE) of Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations from the Multi‐Model Large Ensemble Archive, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change in reproducing the variability and change of the austral summer precipitation observed in South America along the second part of the 20th century and beginning of the 21st. LE show similar biases in the mean austral summer rainfall and interannual variability than those detected in previous model sets, such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The positive trends in south‐eastern South America (SESA) and negative ones in the southern Andes (SAn), that are the most significant observed regional features, are identified to some extent in LE simulations. The negative trend in SAn is a feature consistently shown among different models. For all models, mean trend is negative in that particular region and larger than the inter‐member dispersion for each large ensemble. Trend magnitudes in the SESA region show a larger dispersion between models than the SAn region. While the mean trend among models is consistent with the observations, models underestimate the observed trend. The multi‐model ensemble of selected models that best reproduce both mean and interannual variability features of rainfall in South America shows an 18% larger positive mean trend in SESA rainfall than those that have the worst performance. However, internal variability uncertainty is still higher than the mean trend for both sets of multi‐model ensembles [5% (18%) for selected (non‐selected) models]. Improvements in the representation of the main features of mean rainfall and variability are needed in order to better describe and reduce the uncertainties associated with the main climate change related signals in the continent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global monsoon is characterised by transitions between pronounced dry and wet seasons, affecting food security for two-thirds of the world's population. Rising atmospheric CO2 influences the terrestrial hydrological cycle through climate-radiative and vegetation-physiological forcings. How these two forcings affect the seasonal intensity and characteristics of monsoonal precipitation and runoff is poorly understood. Here we use four Earth System Models to show that in a CO2-enriched climate, radiative forcing changes drive annual precipitation increases for most monsoon regions. Further, vegetation feedbacks substantially affect annual precipitation in North and South America and Australia monsoon regions. In the dry season, runoff increases over most monsoon regions, due to stomatal closure-driven evapotranspiration reductions and associated atmospheric circulation change. Our results imply that flood risks may amplify in the wet season. However, the lengthening of the monsoon rainfall season and reduced evapotranspiration will shorten the water resources scarcity period for most monsoon regions. Monsoon systems have strong impacts on precipitation and food security over large areas of the world. Here, the authors show that plant responses to rising CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere play a key role in modulating seasonal rainfall and water resources over global land monsoon regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Premise: The Climate Reconstruction Analysis using Coexistence Likelihood Estimation (CRACLE) method utilizes a robust set of modeling tools for estimating climate and paleoclimate from vegetation using large repositories of biodiversity data and open access R software. Methods: Here, we implement a new R package for the estimation of climate from extant and fossil vegetation. The 'cRacle' package implements functions for data access, aggregation, and modeling to estimate climate from plant community compositions. 'cRacle' is modular and includes many best‐practice features. Results: Performance tests using modern vegetation survey data from North and South America shows that CRACLE outperforms alternative methods. CRACLE estimates of mean annual temperature are usually within 1°C of the actual values when optimal model parameters are used. Generalized boosted regression (GBR) model correction improves CRACLE estimates by reducing bias. Discussion: CRACLE provides accurate estimates of climate based on the composition of modern plant communities. Non‐parametric CRACLE modeling coupled with GBR model correction produces the most accurate results to date. The 'cRacle' R package streamlines the estimation of climate from plant community data, which will make this modeling more accessible to a wider range of users. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Cenozoic climate of tropical South America was fundamental to the development of its biota, the most biodiverse on Earth. No previous studies have explicitly addressed how the very different atmospheric composition and Atlantic geometry during the early Eocene (approximately 55 million years ago) may have affected South American climate. At that time, the Atlantic Ocean was approximately half of its current width and the CO2 concentration of Earth's atmosphere ranged from ~550 to ~1500 ppm or even higher. Climate model simulations were performed to examine the effects of these major state changes on the climate of tropical South America. Reducing the width of the Atlantic by approximately half produces significant drying relative to modern climate. Drying is only partly offset by an enhancement of precipitation due to the higher CO2 of the early Eocene. The main mechanism for drier conditions is simple. Low-level air crosses the tropical Atlantic from North Africa in much less time for a narrower Atlantic (2 days) than for the modern Atlantic (~6 days); as a result, much less water is evaporated into the air and thus there is far lower moisture imported to the continent in the Eocene simulation than in the modern control. The progressive wetting (during the mid- to late Cenozoic) of the Amazon due to the widening Atlantic and the rising Andes, only partly offset by decreasing CO2 values, may have been partly responsible for the accumulating biodiversity of this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In South America the biogeographic history has produced different biomes with different vegetation types and distinct floras. As these vegetation types may diverge in evolutionary histories, we analysed how alpha and beta phylogenetic diversity vary across them and determine the main drivers of variation in phylogenetic diversity. To this end, we compiled a list of 205 sites and 1222 tree species spread over four biomes and eight vegetation types in central South America. For each site we evaluated six measures of evolutionary alpha diversity (species richness, phylogenetic diversity sensu stricto and the standardized effect size of phylogenetic diversity, mean phylogenetic distance and mean nearest taxon distance) and beta diversity (phylogenetic Sorensen's similarity). We checked the influence of spatial and environmental variables using generalized least squares models. The greatest phylogenetic differentiation was found between west and east of central South America, mainly between the Chaco communities and the other vegetation types, suggesting that species found in this biome come from different lineages, comparing with the others vegetation types. Our results also showed a clustered phylogenetic structure for the Dry Chaco woodlands, which may be associated with harsh environmental conditions. In addition to historical process, climatic conditions are the main drivers shaping phylogenetic patterns among the distinct vegetation types. Understanding patterns of phylogenetic diversity and distribution can greatly improve conservation planning and management since it allows the conservation of unique biome characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The South Pacific Subtropical High (SPSH) is a predominant feature of the South American climate. The variability of this high-pressure center induces changes in the intensity of coastal alongshore winds and precipitation, among others, over southwestern South America. In recent decades, strengthening and expansion of the SPSH have been observed and attributed to the current global warming. These changes have led to an intensification of the southerly winds along the coast of northern to central Chile and a decrease in precipitation from central to southern Chile. Motivated by improving our understanding about the regional impacts of climate change in this part of the Southern Hemisphere, we analyzed SPSH changes during the two most extreme climate events of the last millennium, the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Current Warm Period (CWP: 1970–2000), based on paleoclimate records and CMIP5/PMIP3 model simulations. In order to assess the level of agreement of general circulation models, we also compare them with ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the 1979–2009 period as a complementary analysis. Finally, with the aim of evaluating future SPSH behavior, we include 21st century projections under a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) scenario in our analyses. Our results indicate that during the relative warm (cold) period, the SPSH expands (contracts). Together with this change, alongshore winds intensify (weaken) south (north) of ∼35 ∘ S; also, southern westerly winds become stronger (weaker) and shift southward (northward). Model results generally underestimate reanalysis data. These changes are in good agreement with paleoclimate records, which suggest that these variations could be related to tropical climate dynamics but also to extratropical phenomena. However, although models adequately represent most of the South American climate changes, they fail to represent the Intertropical Convergence Zone–Hadley cell system dynamics, emphasizing the importance of improving tropical system dynamics in simulations for a better understanding of its effects on South America. Climate model projections indicate that changes recently observed will continue during the next decades, highlighting the need to establish effective mitigation and adaptation strategies against their environmental and socioeconomic impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates hindcast simulations performed with a regional climate model (RCM, RegCM4) driven by reanalysis data (ERA-Interim) over the Pacific coast and Andes Cordillera of extratropical South America. A nested domain configuration at 0. 44 ∘ (∼ 50 km) and 0. 09 ∘ (∼ 10 km) spatial resolutions is used for the simulations. RegCM4 is also driven by a global climate model (GCM, MPI-ESM-MR) on the same domain configuration to asses the added values for temperature and precipitation (historical simulations). Overall, both 10 km hindcast and historical simulation results are promising and exhibit a better representation of near-surface air temperature and precipitation variability compared to the 50 km simulations. High-resolution simulations suppress an overestimation of precipitation over the Andes Cordillera of northern Chile found with the 50 km simulations. The simulated daily temperature and precipitation extreme indices from 10 km hindcast simulation show a closer estimation of the observed fields. A persistent warm bias ( ∼ + 4 ∘ C ) over the Atacama Desert in 10 km hindcast simulation reveals the complexity in representing land surface and radiative processes over the desert. Difficulties in capturing the temperature trend in northern Chile are notable for both hindcast simulations. Both resolutions exhibit added values for temperature and precipitation over large parts of Chile, in particular, the 10 km resolves the coastal-valley Andes transitions over central Chile. Our results highlight that resolutions coarser than 50 km (e.g., GCMs and reanalysis) miss important climate gradients imposed by complex topography. Given that the highest spatial resolution of the current regional simulations over the South America is about 50 km, higher resolutions are important to improve our understanding of the dynamical processes that determine climate over complex terrain and extreme environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From the perspective of Central and South America, the peopling of the New World was a complex process lasting thousands of years and involving multiple waves of Pleistocene and early Holocene period immigrants entering into the neotropics. These Paleoindian colonists initially brought with them technologies developed for adaptation to environments and resources found in North America. As the ice age ended across the New World people adapted more generalized stone tools to exploit changing environments and resources. In the neotropics these changes would have been pronounced as patchy forests and grasslands gave way to broadleaf tropical forests. We document a late Pleistocene/early Holocene stone tool tradition from Belize, located in southern Mesoamerica. This represents the first endogenous Paleoindian stone tool technocomplex recovered from well dated stratigraphic contexts for Mesoamerica. Previously designated Lowe, these artifacts share multiple features with contemporary North and South American Paleoindian tool types. Once hafted, these bifaces appear to have served multiple functions for cutting, hooking, thrusting, or throwing. The tools were developed at a time of technological regionalization reflecting the diverse demands of a period of pronounced environmental change and population movement. Combined stratigraphic, technological, and population paleogenetic data suggests that there were strong ties between lowland neotropic regions at the onset of the Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work we analyze potential environmental drivers of malaria cases in Northwestern Argentina. We inspect causal links between malaria and climatic variables by means of the convergent cross mapping technique, which provides a causality criterion from the theory of dynamic systems. Analysis is based on 12 years of weekly malaria P. vivax cases in Tartagal, Salta, Argentina—at the southern fringe of malaria incidence in the Americas—together with humidity and temperature time-series spanning the same period. Our results show that there are causal links between malaria cases and both maximum temperature, with a delay of five weeks, and minimum temperature, with delays of zero and twenty two weeks. Humidity is also a driver of malaria cases, with thirteen weeks delay between cause and effect. Furthermore we also determined the sign and strength of the effects. Temperature has always a positive non-linear effect on cases, with maximum temperature effects more pronounced above 25°C and minimum above 17°C, while effects of humidity are more intricate: maximum humidity above 85% has a negative effect, whereas minimum humidity has a positive effect on cases. These results might be signaling processes operating at short (below 5 weeks) and long (over 12 weeks) time delays, corresponding to effects related to parasite cycle and mosquito population dynamics respectively. The non-linearities found for the strength of the effect of temperature on malaria cases make warmer areas more prone to higher increases in the disease incidence. Moreover, our results indicate that an increase of extreme weather events could enhance the risks of malaria spreading and re-emergence beyond the current distribution. Both situations, warmer climate and increase of extreme events, will be remarkably increased by the end of the century in this hot spot of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the present study, five-year of precipitation features (PFs) datasets, based on Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), are used to investigate the global and regional characteristics of extreme rainfall events (EREs). The EREs are defined based on the PFs area, depth (maximum height of radar reflectivity), and the rain rate and called them largest, deepest, and intense EREs, respectively. The EREs are divided into top 10%, 1%, 0.1%, and 0.01% based on their frequency of occurrences. It is observed that occurrences of EREs belonging to less than top 0.01% EREs follow the tropical rainfall climatology over the tropics based on all the parameters. Subtropical oceanic areas consist of a higher frequency of largest EREs, whereas tropical land areas consist of the higher number of deepest EREs. The most intense EREs (top 0.01%) are uniformly distributed over tropical areas and subtropical oceans, and spatial distribution shows that a deepest ERE belongs to intense EREs in the tropical land areas. Large differences between the precipitation contribution from the largest and deepest EREs are seen; for example, the top 1% of largest EREs contribute to ∼80.7% of Earth's precipitation, whereas the corresponding percentage for deepest EREs is only 53%. On the regional and seasonal scale, South Asia (SAsia) and South America (SA) nearly show common features, as oceanic and land areas consist of largest and deepest EREs, respectively, and contribute to higher precipitation. Subtropical latitudes over South America, including Sierra de Cordoba and La Plata basin, consist of deepest and intense EREs and match with those of the Indo-Gangetic plain over South Asia, which also shows the similar characteristics. EREs based on various parameters are strongly linked over SAsia compared to SA. For example, the largest top 10% EREs have a higher probability to be part of the top 10% deepest and intense EREs over SAsia. The seasonal and regional water budget reveals different characteristics, as in the southern hemisphere, the deeper EREs contribute to the higher fraction of rainfall, but over SAsia, the shallower EREs could also contribute to significant rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change alters the dynamic of natural ecosystems and directly affects species distributions, persistence and diversity. The impacts of climate change may lead to dramatic changes in biotic interactions, such as pollination and seed dispersal. Life history traits are extremely important to consider the vulnerability of a species to climate change, producing more robust models than those based primarily on species distributions. Here, we hypothesized that rising temperatures and aridity will reduce suitable habitats for the endemic flora of the Caatinga, the most diverse dry tropical forest on Earth. Specifically, species with specialized reproductive traits (e.g. vertebrate pollination, biotic dispersal, obligatory cross-pollination) should be more affected by climate change than those with generalist traits. We performed two ecological niche models (current and future) to simulate the effects of climate change on the distribution area of endemic species in relation to life-history traits. We used the MIROC-ESM and CCSM4 models for both intermediate (RCP4.5) and highest predicted (RCP8.5) GHG emission scenarios, with a resolution of 30' (~1 km2). Habitat with high occurrence probability (>80%) of endemic species will be reduced (up to ~10% for trees, ~13% for non-arboreous, 10–28% for species with any pollination/reproductive system), with the greatest reductions for species with specialized reproductive traits. In addition, the likely concentration of endemic plants in the extreme northeastern portion of the Caatinga, in more mesic areas, coincides with the currently most human-modified areas of the ecosystem, which combined with climate change will further contract suitable habitats of endemic species. In conclusion, plant species endemic to the Caatinga are highly vulnerable to even conservative scenarios of future climate change and may lose much of their climatic envelopes. New protected areas should be located in the northeastern portion of the Caatinga, which hosts a more favorable climate, but is currently exposed to escalating agricultural intensification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The bias correction of the General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs has become a routine step that is taken in climate change impact assessments. To responsibly support the decision‐making processes, the climate‐modeling community has been debating about the conceptual requirements that bias‐correction methods should fulfill. Bearing in mind these requirements, we propose to decompose atmospheric variables into three temporal elements that represent the climate mean state, the interannual variability, and the daily variability. This decomposition is aimed at correcting the biases at one time scale without affecting the simulated climate (mean state) trend or the distributional properties at other time scales. The novelty of the proposed approach is, nevertheless, marked by the adjustment of interannual and daily variability that is made by replacing the GCM‐simulated data with synthetic samples drawn from Stable Distributions (SDs) that are fitted to the observed variability. The replacement prevents the transfer of the sampling variability of the calibration period and gives the corrected data the distributional properties of the observed climate. The employment of SDs was motivated by the fact that the climate‐change‐induced changes in the scale, the symmetry, and the frequency of extremes can be measured and applied to the SDs of the observed data. We correct the biases in the GCM‐simulated temperature and precipitation over northern South America using our proposed approach and two other existing ones. Our proposed method is capable of not only preserving the simulated climate trends but also reproducing the observed extremes as well as a more flexible method based on nonparametric distributions. Key Points: We decompose GCM's daily time series into terms that represent the climate mean state, the interannual variability, and the daily variabilityWe replace the modeled daily variability using trend‐preserving synthetic samples that are drawn from stable distributionsThe mathematical properties of stable distributions allow the inclusion of simulated climate change in the correction process [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new set of CORDEX simulations over South America, together with their coarser-resolution driving Global Climate Models (GCMs) are used to investigate added value of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing mean climate conditions over the continent. There are two types of simulations with different lateral boundary conditions: five hindcast simulations use re-analysis as boundary conditions, and five other historical simulations use GCMs outputs. Multi-model ensemble means and individual simulations are evaluated against two or three observation-based gridded datasets for 2-m surface air temperature and total precipitation. The analysis is performed for summer and winter, over a common period from 1990 to 2004. Results indicate that added value of RCMs is dependent on driving fields, surface properties of the area, season and variable considered. A robust added value for RCMs driven by ERA-Interim is obtained in reproducing the summer climatology of surface air temperature over tropical and subtropical latitudes. Mixed results can be seen, however, for summer precipitation climatology in both hindcast and historical experiments. For winter, there is no noticeable improvement by the RCMs for the large-scale precipitation and surface air temperature climatology. To further understand the added value of RCMs, models deviations from observation are decomposed according to different terms that reflect the observational uncertainty, the representativeness error, the interpolation error, and the actual performance of the model. Regions where these errors are not negligible, such as in complex terrain regions, among others, can be identified. There is a clear need for complementary assessment to understand better the real value added by RCMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When assessing the more pressing challenges of the Paris Agreement, four aspects become relevant. First, the lack of reliable sources and resources of climate finances-related information. Second, only developed countries' contributions are being accounted and disseminated. The omission of the resources invested by the developing world to combat climate change skews theoretical analysis, limits accuracy in policy, and has the potential to alienate the Global South against adopting climate policies. Third, loans represent a majority share of the climate finances and are swelling the debt of developing countries, especially in Latin America. Finally, Kyoto's leaves as legacy a governance model predominantly hierarchical both at general climate finances as well as in REDD+ in the three regions. The goal of this article is to draw a baseline on the quantity and quality of climate finances and specifically those of REDD+, a mechanism targeted at developing countries. There were three distinct stages to this review: (1) the assessment of 13,000 projects implemented in Asia, Africa, and Latin America between 2008 and 2015; (2) the assessment of 312 REDD+ initiatives implemented in the three regions in this period; and (3) the analysis of the governance model propelled by these transactions. Policy implications of the results presented in this article conclude this analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: An international spread of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection has attracted global attention in 2015. The infection also affected Guangdong province, which is located in southern China. Multiple factors, including frequent communication with South America and Southeast Asia, suitable climate (sub-tropical) for the habitat of Aedes species, may increase the risk of ZIKV disease transmission in this region.Methods: An analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method was used to develop a semi-quantitative ZIKV risk assessment model. After selecting indicators, we invited experts in related professions to identify the index weight and based on that a hierarchical structure was generated. Then a series of pairwise comparisons were used to determine the relative importance of the criteria. Finally, the optimal model was established to estimate the spatial and seasonal transmission risk of ZIKV.Results: A total of 15 factors that potentially influenced the risk of ZIKV transmission were identified. The factor that received the largest weight was epidemic of ZIKV in Guangdong province (combined weight [CW] =0.37), followed by the mosquito density (CW = 0.18) and the epidemic of DENV in Guangdong province (CW = 0.14). The distribution of 123 districts/counties' RIs of ZIKV in Guangdong through different seasons were presented, respectively.Conclusions: Higher risk was observed within Pearl River Delta including Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Jiangmen, and the risk is greater in summer and autumn compared to spring and winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim We analysed in detail a past marine incursion event in north-western Amazonia and measured its effect on the forest composition. We also determined the sediment provenance in the fluvio-estuarine system and reconstructed the overall floral composition of the Amazon lowland forest during the Miocene climatic optimum. Location A 60-m-thick sedimentary succession situated along the Caquetá River in Colombian Amazonia (0.77° S; 71.97° W). Methods Palynological, geochemical and statistical analyses were performed on samples from organic-rich sediments. Results The lower section was formed by fluvial floodplain deposits of Andean provenance rich in pollen of Malvacipolloides maristellae (aff. Abutilon) and Rhoipites guianensis (aff. Vasivaea). The middle section was formed by fluvial channel and estuarine swamp deposits of central Venezuelan provenance dominated by pollen of Mauritiidites franciscoi (Mauritia). Towards the top, the swamp deposits represent an estuarine floodplain with aquatic biomarkers, marine palynomorphs and mangrove pollen. The succession ended with fluvial floodplain deposits of central to southern Venezuelan origin with R. guianensis as dominant pollen type. Palynological diversity was high throughout the section with Andean- and Venezuelan-derived sediments each with their characteristic taxa. Tropical rain forest taxa, such as Arecaceae, Fabaceae, Sapotaceae, Malpighiaceae and Bombacoideae, were common in these sediments, although taxa adapted to drier conditions also occurred. We provide a 'figshare' link to an image library of selected taxa, as well as the raw counts and processed data. Main conclusions The fluvio-estuarine system was of mixed origin with sediments and palynomorphs from the emerging Andes, but also from an area situated in the modern Orinoco Basin. Marine influence was linked to the Venezuelan source area and thus of indisputable Caribbean origin. Overall, a mixed forest with drought-resistant components existed in the drainage system during the Miocene climatic optimum. Our data provide a novel insight into the composition of the tropical lowland forest and the environments in north-western Amazonia prior to the main uplift of the central and northern Andes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified landcover map, from which 25% of the map’s coverage was randomly selected to fuel distribution models. We selected the best geographical distribution models among twelve techniques, validating the predicted distribution for current climate with the landcover map and used the best technique to predict the future distribution. All landcover categories showed changes in area and displacement of the latitudinal/longitudinal centroid. Closed vegetation was the only landcover type predicted to expand its distributional range. The range contractions predicted for other categories were intense, even suggesting extirpation of the sparse vegetation category. The landcover refuges under future climate change represent a small proportion of the South American area and they are disproportionately represented and unevenly distributed, predominantly occupying five of 26 South American countries. The predicted changes, regardless of their direction and intensity, can put biodiversity at risk because they are expected to occur in the near future in terms of the temporal scales of ecological and evolutionary processes. Recognition of the threat of climate change allows more efficient conservation actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (A-ITCZ) exhibits variations on several time-scales and plays a crucial role in precipitation regimes of northern South America and western Africa. Here we investigate the variability of the A-ITCZ on intraseasonal time-scales during austral summer (November-March) and winter (May-September) based on a multivariate index that describes the main atmospheric features of the A-ITCZ and retains its variability on interannual, semiannual, and intraseasonal time-scales. This index is the time coefficient of the first combined empirical orthogonal function mode of anomalies (annual cycle removed) of precipitation, and zonal and meridional wind components at 850 hPa from the climate forecast system reanalysis (1979-2010). We examine associations between the intraseasonal variability of the A-ITCZ and the activity of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). We show that during austral summer intraseasonal variability of the A-ITCZ is associated with a Rossby wave train in the Northern Hemisphere. In austral winter this variability is associated with the propagation of a Rossby wave in the Southern Hemisphere consistent with the Pacific-South American pattern. Moreover, we show that intense A-ITCZ events on intraseasonal time-scales are more frequent during the phase of MJO characterized by convection over western Pacific and suppression over the Indian Ocean. These teleconnection patterns induce anomalies in the trade winds and upper level divergence over the equatorial Atlantic that modulate the intensity of the A-ITCZ. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies based on contemporary plant occurrences and pollen fossil records have proposed that the current disjunct distribution of seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) across South America is the result of fragmentation of a formerly widespread and continuously distributed dry forest during the arid climatic conditions associated with the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), which is known as the modern-day dry forest refugia hypothesis. We studied the demographic history of Tabebuia rosealba (Bignoniaceae) to understand the disjunct geographic distribution of South American SDTFs based on statistical phylogeography and ecological niche modeling (ENM). We specifically tested the dry forest refugia hypothesis; i.e., if the multiple and isolated patches of SDTFs are current climatic relicts of a widespread and continuously distributed dry forest during the LGM. We sampled 235 individuals across 18 populations in Central Brazil and analyzed the polymorphisms at chloroplast (trnS-trnG, psbA-trnH and ycf6-trnC intergenic spacers) and nuclear (ITS nrDNA) genomes. We performed coalescence simulations of alternative hypotheses under demographic expectations from two a priori biogeographic hypotheses (1. the Pleistocene Arc hypothesis and, 2. a range shift to Amazon Basin) and other two demographic expectances predicted by ENMs (3. expansion throughout the Neotropical South America, including Amazon Basin, and 4. retraction during the LGM). Phylogenetic analyses based on median-joining network showed haplotype sharing among populations with evidence of incomplete lineage sorting. Coalescent analyses showed smaller effective population sizes for T. roseoalba during the LGM compared to the present-day. Simulations and ENM also showed that its current spatial pattern of genetic diversity is most likely due to a scenario of range retraction during the LGM instead of the fragmentation from a once extensive and largely contiguous SDTF across South America, not supporting the South American dry forest refugia hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]