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This paper deals with the ways in which the intellectual and political history of AIDS can assist in the chronological conceptualization of a pandemic such as COVID-19 as it is unfolding. It problematizes the idea of pandemic "beginnings" and "ends" to show that such definitions are shaped by the disciplinary location and thematic foci of relevant scholars. Central to this analysis is the notion that ethical and political contexts affect research on a pandemic in different ways at national and global levels at various points in its trajectory. The article develops this argument in relation to two main themes: firstly, with reference to the history of AIDS research in South Africa; secondly, with the philosophical concept of bioagency to understand the ways in which viruses and humans co-shape the course of epidemics over time. I first make the case for the development of historically informed, long-term ethnographic studies of COVID-19. Using bioagency as a point of departure to consider viruses as social actors, the essay then critiques the notion of bioinformationalism as catalyzing the widening accessibility of biomedical research. Instead, I discuss the biotechnology and pharmaceutical industries as protagonists in the operation of biocapital. I argue that the history of AIDS in South Africa can provide methodological and theoretical insights into how to interpret an unfolding epidemic, outlining an ambitious transdisciplinary research agenda for thinking about the temporality of a pandemic spanning the different, interconnected, scales of life., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press.)

Currently, the global report of COVID-19 cases is around 110 million, and more than 2.43 million related death cases as of February 18, 2021. Viruses continuously change through mutation; hence, different virus of SARS-CoV-2 has been reported globally. The United Kingdom (UK), South Africa, Brazil, and Nigeria are the countries from which these emerged variants have been notified and now spreading globally. Therefore, these countries have been selected as a research sample for the present study. The datasets analyzed in this study spanned from March 1, 2020, to January 31, 2021, and were obtained from the World Health Organization website. The study used the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast coronavirus incidence in the UK, South Africa, Brazil, and Nigeria. ARIMA models with minimum Akaike Information Criterion Correction (AICc) and statistically significant parameters were chosen as the best models in this research. Accordingly, for the new confirmed cases, ARIMA (3,1,14), ARIMA (0,1,11), ARIMA (1,0,10), and ARIMA (1,1,14) models were chosen for the UK, South Africa, Brazil, and Nigeria, respectively. Also, the model specification for the confirmed death cases was ARIMA (3,0,4), ARIMA (0,1,4), ARIMA (1,0,7), and ARIMA (Brown); models were selected for the UK, South Africa, Brazil, and Nigeria, respectively. The results of the ARIMA model forecasting showed that if the required measures are not taken by the respective governments and health practitioners in the days to come, the magnitude of the coronavirus pandemic is expected to increase in the study's selected countries., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022 Cai Li et al.)

It is no doubt that the outbreak of the novel coronavirus caught the world including South Africa, off-guard. This statement refers in particular, to the fact that the outbreak of the pandemic firstly exposed the level of unpreparedness of government and its different departments, including the private sector to deal with unforeseen outbreaks like the coronavirus which leads to COVID-19. This is a typical example of systemic problems within the government and the private sector. Secondly and most importantly, this outbreak exposed the level of inequality between schools in rural areas and those in townships and affluent parts of the country which are mostly habited by black middle class and white people. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the systemic challenges and the emotional impact of this virus on the learners and their parents; the learners and their teachers, and to venture into the policymaking and implementation terrain of the Department of Basic education with a specific focus on how the DBE responded to the outbreak. Furthermore, this paper makes a case out of the emerging case by case approach of the government and the DBE in dealing with the threats which are posed by this pandemic to communities and schools. The researchers hold the view that this paper will expose the levels of inequality between schools in different parts of the country and advocate for a culture of foresight in the education management system; a culture that acknowledges that schools, like communities and business entities, are vulnerable and susceptible to external forces that may have long-lasting effects on their functionality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On March 11, 2020, the outbreak of Novel Coronavirus (SARS‐CoV‐2) Disease, or COVID‐19, was officially declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). As its effects roll through societies and economies across the globe, women are expected to bear the heaviest impact. Unfortunately, despite gender‐focused reporting on the consequences of the COVID‐19 crisis, few government policies and public health efforts have explicitly addressed the gendered impacts of the pandemic. This academic review paper presents literature, from both academic and media sources, on the early effects of the COVID‐19 crisis on women, specifically within the South African context. Preliminary research and reporting of the effects of COVID‐19 on the South African population indicate that inequitable gendered practices negatively impact women in the general economy, the workplace, and the home. These settings are discussed in this article, along with recommendations to ameliorate the lived experiences of South African women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a new strain of virus in the Coronavirus family that has not been previously identified. Since SARS-CoV-2 is a new virus, everyone is at risk of catching the Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). No one has immunity to the virus. Despite this, misconceptions about specific groups of people who are immune to Covid-19 emerged with the onset of the pandemic. This paper explores South African communities' misconceptions about who is most vulnerable to Covid-19. A rapid qualitative assessment was conducted remotely in Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape provinces of South Africa. Recruitment of study participants took place through established relationships with civil society organizations and contacts made by researchers. In total, 60 key informant interviews and one focus group discussion was conducted. Atlas.ti.8 Windows was used to facilitate qualitative data analysis. The qualitative data was coded, and thematic analysis used to identify themes. The results show a high level of awareness and knowledge of the transmission and prevention of SARS-CoV-2. Qualitative data revealed that there is awareness of elderly people and those with immunocompromised conditions being more vulnerable to catching Covid-19. However, misconceptions of being protected against the virus or having low or no risk were also evident in the data. We found that false information circulated on social media not only instigated confusion, fear and panic, but also contributed to the construction of misconceptions, othering and stigmatizing responses to Covid-19. The study findings bring attention to the importance of developing communication materials adapted to specific communities to help reduce misconceptions, othering and stigmatization around Covid-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to be a global health problem whose impact has been significantly felt in South Africa. With the global spread increasing and infecting millions, containment efforts by countries have largely focused on lockdowns and social distancing to minimise contact between persons. Social distancing has been touted as the best form of response in managing a rapid increase in the number of infected cases. In this paper, we present a deterministic model to describe the impact of social distancing on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in South Africa. The model is fitted to data from March 5 to April 13, 2020, on the cumulative number of infected cases, and a scenario analysis on different levels of social distancing is presented. The model shows that with the levels of social distancing under the initial lockdown level between March 26 and April 13, 2020, there would be a projected continued rise in the number of infected cases. The model also looks at the impact of relaxing the social distancing measures after the initial announcement of the lockdown. It is shown that relaxation of social distancing by 2% can result in a 23% rise in the number of cumulative cases whilst an increase in the level of social distancing by 2% would reduce the number of cumulative cases by about 18%. The model results accurately predicted the number of cases after the initial lockdown level was relaxed towards the end of April 2020. These results have implications on the management and policy direction in the early phase of the epidemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several variants of SARS-CoV-2 have been identified in different parts of the world, including Gamma, detected in Brazil, Delta, detected in India, and the recent Omicron variant, detected in South Africa. The emergence of a new variant is a cause of great concern. This work considers an extended version of an SIRD model capable of incorporating the effects of vaccination, time-dependent transmissibility rates, mortality, and even potential reinfections during the pandemic. We use this model to characterise the Omicron wave in Brazil, South Africa, and Germany. During Omicron, the transmissibility increased by five for Brazil and Germany and eight for South Africa, whereas the estimated mortality was reduced by three-fold. We estimated that the reported cases accounted for less than 25 % of the actual cases during Omicron. The mortality among the nonvaccinated population in these countries is, on average, three to four times higher than the mortality among the fully vaccinated. Finally, we could only reproduce the observed dynamics after introducing a new parameter that accounts for the percentage of the population that can be reinfected. Reinfection was as high as 40 % in South Africa, which has only 29 % of its population fully vaccinated and as low as 13 % in Brazil, which has over 70 % and 80 % of its population fully vaccinated and with at least one dose, respectively. The calibrated models were able to estimate essential features of the complex virus and vaccination dynamics and stand as valuable tools for quantifying the impact of protocols and decisions in different populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a considerable impact on global health and economics. The impact in African countries has not been investigated thoroughly via fitting epidemic models to the reported COVID-19 deaths. We downloaded the data for the 12 most-affected countries with the highest cumulative COVID-19 deaths to estimate the time-varying basic reproductive number ( R 0 (t) ) and infection attack rate. We develop a simple epidemic model and fitted it to reported COVID-19 deaths in 12 African countries using iterated filtering and allowing a flexible transmission rate. We observe high heterogeneity in the case-fatality rate across the countries, which may be due to different reporting or testing efforts. South Africa, Tunisia, and Libya were most affected, exhibiting a relatively higher R 0 (t) and infection attack rate. Thus, to effectively control the spread of COVID-19 epidemics in Africa, there is a need to consider other mitigation strategies (such as improvements in socioeconomic well-being, healthcare systems, the water supply, and awareness campaigns). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since early 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused an excess in morbidity and mortality rates worldwide. Containment strategies rely firstly on rapid and sensitive laboratory diagnosis, with molecular detection of the viral genome in respiratory samples being the gold standard. The reliability of diagnostic protocols could be affected by SARS-CoV-2 genetic variability. In fact, mutations occurring during SARS-CoV-2 genomic evolution can involve the regions targeted by the diagnostic probes. Following a review of the literature and an in silico analysis of the most recently described virus variants (including the UK B 1.1.7 and the South Africa 501Y.V2 variants), we conclude that the described genetic variability should have minimal or no effect on the sensitivity of existing diagnostic protocols for SARS-CoV-2 genome detection. However, given the continuous emergence of new variants, the situation should be monitored in the future, and protocols including multiple targets should be preferred. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has spread very fast around the world. A few days after the first detected case in South Africa, an infection started in a large hospital outbreak in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal (KZN). Phylogenetic analysis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genomes can be used to trace the path of transmission within a hospital. It can also identify the source of the outbreak and provide lessons to improve infection prevention and control strategies. This manuscript outlines the obstacles encountered in order to genotype SARS-CoV-2 in near-real time during an urgent outbreak investigation. This included problems with the length of the original genotyping protocol, unavailability of reagents, and sample degradation and storage. Despite this, three different library preparation methods for Illumina sequencing were set up, and the hands-on library preparation time was decreased from twelve to three hours, which enabled the outbreak investigation to be completed in just a few weeks. Furthermore, the new protocols increased the success rate of sequencing whole viral genomes. A simple bioinformatics workflow for the assembly of high-quality genomes in near-real time was also fine-tuned. In order to allow other laboratories to learn from our experience, all of the library preparation and bioinformatics protocols are publicly available at protocols.io and distributed to other laboratories of the Network for Genomics Surveillance in South Africa (NGS-SA) consortium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]