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We examine the financial performance of the forest products industry in the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, employing data for publicly trading companies in the industry globally. We first examine the market investor reaction to the declaration of a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) in March 2020 by conducting an event-study analysis. Then, we analyze medium-term changes in stock returns and their systematic risk by an econometric estimation of the capital asset pricing model. Our event-study analysis of the forest products industry shows that the forestry subsector was impacted more than the paper subsector when the WHO declared the pandemic. The effect was most prominent in North America. We find that the systematic risk for the forestry subsector tended to increase during 2020, until October. Again, this effect was most clear in North America. Conversely, the impact on the paper subsector was more stable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Syndromic surveillance provides public health intelligence to aid in early warning and monitoring of public health impacts (e.g. seasonal influenza), or reassurance when an impact has not occurred. Using information collected during routine patient care, syndromic surveillance can be based on signs/symptoms/preliminary diagnoses. This approach makes syndromic surveillance much timelier than surveillance requiring laboratory confirmed diagnoses. The provision of healthcare services and patient access to them varies globally. However, emergency departments (EDs) exist worldwide, providing unscheduled urgent care to people in acute need. This provision of care makes ED syndromic surveillance (EDSyS) a potentially valuable tool for public health surveillance internationally. The objective of this study was to identify and describe the key characteristics of EDSyS systems that have been established and used globally., Methods: We systematically reviewed studies published in peer review journals and presented at International Society of Infectious Disease Surveillance conferences (up to and including 2017) to identify EDSyS systems which have been created and used for public health purposes. Search criteria developed to identify "emergency department" and "syndromic surveillance" were applied to NICE healthcare, Global Health and Scopus databases., Results: In total, 559 studies were identified as eligible for inclusion in the review, comprising 136 journal articles and 423 conference abstracts/papers. From these studies we identified 115 EDSyS systems in 15 different countries/territories across North America, Europe, Asia and Australasia. Systems ranged from local surveillance based on a single ED, to comprehensive national systems. National EDSyS systems were identified in 8 countries/territories: 2 reported inclusion of ≥85% of ED visits nationally (France and Taiwan)., Conclusions: EDSyS provides a valuable tool for the identification and monitoring of trends in severe illness. Technological advances, particularly in the emergency care patient record, have enabled the evolution of EDSyS over time. EDSyS reporting has become closer to 'real-time', with automated, secure electronic extraction and analysis possible on a daily, or more frequent basis. The dissemination of methods employed and evidence of successful application to public health practice should be encouraged to support learning from best practice, enabling future improvement, harmonisation and collaboration between systems in future., Prospero Number: CRD42017069150 .

In less than five months, COVID-19 has spread from a small focus in Wuhan, China, to more than 5 million people in almost every country in the world, dominating the concern of most governments and public health systems. The social and political distresses caused by this epidemic will certainly impact our world for a long time to come. Here, we synthesize lessons from a range of scientific perspectives rooted in epidemiology, virology, genetics, ecology and evolutionary biology so as to provide perspective on how this pandemic started, how it is developing, and how best we can stop it., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

This paper takes a novel approach for forecasting the risk of disease emergence by combining risk management, signal processing and econometrics to develop a new forecasting approach. We propose quantifying risk using the Value at Risk criterion and then propose a two staged model based on Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis and Quantile Regression (MSSA-QR model). The proposed risk measure (PLVaR) and forecasting model (MSSA-QR) is used to forecast the worst cases of waterborne disease outbreaks in 22 European and North American countries based on socio-economic and environmental indicators. The results show that the proposed method perfectly forecasts the worst case scenario for less common waterborne diseases whilst the forecasting of more common diseases requires more socio-economic and environmental indicators., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Addressing critical global health issues, such as antimicrobial resistance, infectious disease outbreaks, and natural disasters, requires strong coordination and management across sectors. The One Health approach is the integrative effort of multiple sectors working to attain optimal health for people, animals, and the environment, and is increasingly recognized by experts as a means to address complex challenges. However, practical application of the One Health approach has been challenging. The One Health Systems Mapping and Analysis Resource Toolkit (OH-SMART) introduced in this paper was designed using a multistage prototyping process to support systematic improvement in multi-sectoral coordination and collaboration to better address complex health concerns through an operational, stepwise, and practical One Health approach. To date, OH-SMART has been used to strengthen One Health systems in 17 countries and has been deployed to revise emergency response frameworks, improve antimicrobial resistance national action plans and create multi agency infectious disease collaboration protocols. OH-SMART has proven to be user friendly, robust, and capable of fostering multi-sectoral collaboration and complex system-wide problem solving. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Several populations of Coho salmon have been maintained in aquaculture, but the extent of the genetic diversity in these strains is unknown. This paper describes the genetic status of several aquaculture strains of Coho salmon from North America, Chile, and Japan and a wild-type hatchery strain from the Pacific Northwest of North America. The Chilean strains in particular have been subject to changes in population sizes attributable to their establishment, reductions due to disease outbreaks, and maintenance of small population sizes in culture. An assumption-free method for estimating the changes in genetic diversity showed that many aquaculture strains had reduced variability. These results highlight the importance of monitoring the genetic diversity of aquaculture species from the start of breeding programs to secure their future genetic variation, particularly in challenging environments such as those expected from climate change. Understanding the genetic status of aquaculture strains is essential for developing management guidelines aimed at sustaining the rates of genetic gain for economically important traits, as well as securing populations that will be robust to climate change. Coho salmon was the first salmonid introduced to Chile for commercial purposes and now comprises an essential component of the country's aquaculture industry. Several events, such as admixture, genetic bottlenecks, and rapid domestication, appear to be determinants in shaping the genome of commercial strains representing this species. To determine the impact of such events on the genetic diversity of these strains, we sought to estimate the effective population size (Ne) of several of these strains using genome-wide approaches. We compared these estimates to commercial strains from North America and Japan, as well as a hatchery strain used for supportive breeding of wild populations. The estimates of Ne were based on a method robust to assumptions about changes in population history, and ranged from low (Ne = 34) to relatively high (Ne = 80) in the Chilean strains. These estimates were higher than those obtained from the commercial North American strain but lower than those observed in the hatchery population and the Japanese strain (with Ne over 150). Our results suggest that some populations require measures to control the rates of inbreeding, possibly by using genomic information and incorporating new genetic material to ensure the long-term sustainability of these populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Avian influenza virus reveals persistent and recurrent outbreaks in North American wild waterfowl, and exhibits major outbreaks at 2-8 years intervals in duck populations. The standard susceptible-infected- recovered (SIR) framework, which includes seasonal migration and reproduction, but lacks environmental transmission, is unable to reproduce the multi-periodic patterns of avian influenza epidemics. In this paper, we argue that a fully stochastic theory based on environmental transmission provides a simple, plausible explanation for the phenomenon of multi-year periodic outbreaks of avian flu. Our theory predicts complex fluctuations with a dominant period of 2 to 8 years which essentially depends on the intensity of environmental transmission. A wavelet analysis of the observed data supports this prediction. Furthermore, using master equations and van Kampen system-size expansion techniques, we provide an analytical expression for the spectrum of stochastic fluctuations, revealing how the outbreak period varies with the environmental transmission.

In this paper, we study the stability and saddle-node bifurcation of a model for the West Nile virus transmission dynamics. The existence and classification of the equilibria are presented. By the theory of K-competitive dynamical systems and index theory of dynamical systems on a surface, sufficient and necessary conditions for local stability of equilibria are obtained. We also study the saddle-node bifurcation of the system. Explicit subthreshold conditions in terms of parameters are obtained beyond the basic reproduction number which provides further guidelines for accessing control of the spread of the West Nile virus. Our results suggest that the basic reproductive number itself is not enough to describe whether West Nile virus will prevail or not and suggest that we should pay more attention to the initial state of West Nile virus. The results also partially explained the mechanism of the recurrence of the small scale endemic of the virus in North America.

Objective: In this paper, we review evidence of HCV prevalence among injecting drug users (IDUs) worldwide., Methods: We undertook a desk-based review of both 'grey' and published literature released between 1998 and 2005., Results: Data on HCV prevalence among IDUs was found in 57 countries and in 152 sub-national areas. We found reports of HCV prevalence of at least 50% among IDUs in 49 countries or territories. Available regional estimates varied widely, from 10 to 96% in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, from 10 to 100% in South and South-East Asia, from 34 to 93% in East-Asia and the Pacific, from 5 to 60% in North Africa and the Middle-East, from 2 to 100% in Latin America, from 8 to 90% in North America, from 25 to 88% in Australia and New Zealand, and from 2 to 93% in Western Europe. Only in Colombia and Lebanon were all HCV prevalence estimates below 20%. In addition, evidence of HIV/HCV co-infection among IDUs was found in 16 countries. In China, Poland, Puerto Rico, Russia, Spain, Switzerland, Thailand and Viet Nam, estimates of the prevalence of HIV/HCV co-infection among IDUs reached 90%., Discussion: Taken together, data suggest high global prevalence of HCV and HIV/HCV co-infection among IDUs. We suggest exploring protective factors in sites of low HCV prevalence.

We reviewed evidence of hand-washing compliance in community settings during the 2003 SARS outbreak. Literature was searched through PubMed, Cochrane Library, Wan Fang database and Google. English and Chinese papers were reviewed. Studies containing data on hand-washing, self-reported or directly observed, in community settings were selected. Case-control studies and studies in healthcare settings were excluded. Fourteen studies were reviewed. Self-reported hand-washing compliance increased in the first phase of the SARS outbreak and maintained a high level 22 months after the outbreak. The decline of hand-washing in Hong Kong after SARS was relatively slow. A significant gender difference in hand-washing compliance (female > male) was found in eight studies. The importance of family support and 'significant female others' in hand hygiene promotion are noted. The impact of education is uncertain. Perceived susceptibility to and severity of SARS, and perceived efficacy of hand-washing in preventing SARS, also predicted self-reported hand-washing compliance.

This paper examines past occurrences in North America relevant to the possibility of biological disasters with animal origins. With respect to naturally occurring animal disease outbreaks, North America, while not as adversely affected by epizootics as other regions, has had its fair share of such outbreaks of both 'traditional' and emerging animal diseases. The traditional category includes such diseases as anthrax, classical swine fever, bluetongue, brucellosis, foot and mouth disease, and the family of equine encephalomyelitis viruses. The emerging diseases include relatively more recent culprits such as postweaning multisystemic wasting syndrome, poultry enteritis mortality syndrome, and newly discovered examples of the transmissible spongiform encephalopathies. Additionally, several serious diseases of human beings that involve animal vectors or reservoirs occur naturally in North America or have emerged in recent decades; these include plague, hantavirus, monkeypox, West Nile virus and avian-derived influenza. At the same time, there have been very few intentional attacks on livestock using biological agents and no recorded cases in North America of animals intentionally being used to transmit disease to humans. According to the historical record, therefore, naturally occurring emerging zoonoses probably constitute the greatest threat in terms of biological disasters with animal origins. However, some of the general trends in terrorist activity, such as the intensification of activities by animal rights extremists against facilities undertaking animal research, mean that the possibility of intentional animal-related biological disasters should not be discounted.

The intricate causal relationships between disease in man and disease in animals first began to be elucidated in the mid-19th century. Although the connections between animal and human disease are now generally understood, individuals as well as societies remain slow to act on this knowledge. This paper examines the gradual recognition of these disease connections and explores the parallel theme of man's reluctance to appreciate the implications of these connections. It identifies factors that have inhibited the realization of the links between disease in man and animals, and discusses several milestones in the scientific elucidation of these links. Beginning with emerging concerns over the relationship between bovine and human tuberculosis in the 1860s, it follows the discovery of insect vectors, animal reservoirs, and the links between animals, influenza, and man. Despite warnings of the potential significance for human disease of patterns of changes in the relationship with animals and the natural world, scientists have continued to treat human and animal health as largely independent disciplines, while historians too have neglected this important aspect of human disease.

Avian influenza virus reveals persistent and recurrent outbreaks in North American wild waterfowl, and exhibits major outbreaks at 2-8 years intervals in duck populations. The standard susceptible-infected- recovered (SIR) framework, which includes seasonal migration and reproduction, but lacks environmental transmission, is unable to reproduce the multiperiodic patterns of avian influenza epidemics. In this paper, we argue that a fully stochastic theory based on environmental transmission provides a simple, plausible explanation for the phenomenon of multi-year periodic outbreaks of avian flu. Our theory predicts complex fluctuations with a dominant period of 2 to 8 years which essentially depends on the intensity of environmental transmission. A wavelet analysis of the observed data supports this prediction. Furthermore, using master equations and van Kampen system-size expansion techniques, we provide an analytical expression for the spectrum of stochastic fluctuations, revealing how the outbreak period varies with the environmental transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animal health emergency management (AHEM) is one of the most important issues confronting the world today and is the key to both food security (safety, quality, wholesomeness, affordability and abundance) and economic stability for many countries. Although the primary objective of emergency management in each of the countries of North America (Canada, Mexico and the United States of America [USA]) is implemented through individual AHEM systems, North America shares four common goals, as follows: preventing the introduction of foreign animal pathogens into North America being prepared to manage the outbreak of a foreign animal disease developing appropriate response strategies for control and eradication of disease taking active measures to recover from the animal health emergency in question. In the course of this paper, the authors provide an introduction to, and overview of, AHEM in North America. Furthermore, they outline the general infrastructure of prevention, preparedness, response and recovery strategies for Canada, Mexico and the USA. Finally, the authors discuss the future of AHEM in North America, concluding with a review of some of the joint activities currently being conducted with regard to AHEM.

Hantaviruses can cause hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in the Americas and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Eurasia. In recent decades, repeated outbreaks of hantavirus disease have led to public concern and have created a global public health burden. Hantavirus spillover from natural hosts into human populations could be considered an ecological process, in which environmental forces, behavioral determinants of exposure, and dynamics at the human–animal interface affect human susceptibility and the epidemiology of the disease. In this review, we summarize the progress made in understanding hantavirus epidemiology and rodent reservoir population biology. We mainly focus on three species of rodent hosts with longitudinal studies of sufficient scale: the striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius, the main reservoir host for Hantaan virus [HTNV], which causes HFRS) in Asia, the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus, the main reservoir host for Sin Nombre virus [SNV], which causes HPS) in North America, and the bank vole (Myodes glareolus, the main reservoir host for Puumala virus [PUUV], which causes HFRS) in Europe. Moreover, we discuss the influence of ecological factors on human hantavirus disease outbreaks and provide an overview of research perspectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In the aftermath of the global spread of 2009 influenza A (pH1N1) virus, still very little is known of the early stages of the outbreak in Mexico during the early months of the year, before the virus was identified. Methodology/Main Findings: We fit a simple mathematical model, the Richards model, to the number of excess laboratoryconfirmed influenza cases in Mexico and Mexico City during the first 15 weeks in 2009 over the average influenza case number of the previous five baseline years of 2004-2008 during the same period to ascertain the turning point (or the peak incidence) of a wave of early influenza infections, and to estimate the transmissibility of the virus during these early months in terms of its basic reproduction number. The results indicate that there may have been an early epidemic in Mexico City as well as in all of Mexico during February/March. Based on excess influenza cases, the estimated basic reproduction number R0 for the early outbreak was 1.59 (0.55 to 2.62) for Mexico City during weeks 5-9, and 1.25 (0.76, 1.74) for all of Mexico during weeks 5-14. Conclusions: We established the existence of an early epidemic in Mexico City and in all of Mexico during February/March utilizing the routine influenza surveillance data, although the location of seeding is unknown. Moreover, estimates of R0 as well as the time of peak incidence (the turning point) for Mexico City and all of Mexico indicate that the early epidemic in Mexico City in February/March had been more transmissible (larger R0) and peaked earlier than the rest of the country. Our conclusion lends support to the possibility that the virus could have already spread to other continents prior to the identification of the virus and the reporting of lab-confirmed pH1N1 cases in North America in April. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study was to review documented outbreaks of gastrointestinal illness in schools, published in the last 10 years, to identify etiology, mode of transmission, the number of children affected, morbidity and mortality patterns, and interventions for control and prevention. Searches of electronic databases, public health publications, and federal, state, and provincial public health Web sites were completed. Of the 121 outbreaks that met the inclusion criteria, 51% were bacterial, 40% viral, 7% were from Cryptosporidium, and 2% from multiple organisms. Transmission routes recorded in 101 reports included foodborne (45%), person-to-person (16%), waterborne (12%), and animal contact (11%). Actions to control outbreaks included alerting medical and public health authorities or the community to the outbreak (13%), treating cases (12%), enhancing hand washing (11%), and increased vigilance during food preparation (8%). Recommendations to prevent future outbreaks were compared with previously published studies that demonstrated effectiveness. The risk of foodborne illness was reduced when food handlers practiced effective hand washing technique and received food safety training and certification. Student training programs on hand hygiene, enhanced cleaning and disinfection of the school, and hepatitis A vaccination were found effective. Children should be supervised on farm visits, hand washing strictly enforced, and food eaten in an area separated from the animals. Staff and students should have a positive, continuous communication with public health authorities including educational sessions and immediate reporting of possible outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using two tests for direct density dependence and standard techniques of time series analysis, we identified density dependence in defoliation time series of the spruce budworm across its outbreak range in eastern North America over the years 1945–1988. We carried out analyses for the entire region and for grid cells of defoliation maps at five spatial scales created by aggregating the smallest grid cells. The rate of detection of direct density dependence, as assessed by two previously published methods, decreased with increasing spatial scale. Using both methods, density dependence was detected more frequently at the periphery of the outbreak range, where defoliation rate was lower. This result suggested that density-dependent regulation may be stronger in those areas. The first order autoregressive process was the basic model for defoliation dynamics overall and the most common model across spatial scales. Second-order processes were encountered much less frequently, and those commonly identified as resulting from delayed density dependence generally occurred across spatial scales at a rate expected by chance alone. Our results were similar to those of other published studies, which have found the detection of density dependence to decrease at larger spatial scales. The results also reinforced the importance of considering spatial scale when diagnosing population processes using time series of abundance for single species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]