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Educational access in developing countries has improved significantly in recent years, but less evidence is available on learning and learning progress in comparative perspective. This paper employs data from Young Lives to examine levels and trends in cognitive skill development and the links to enrolment in school across the four study countries for pupils aged five to 15. Non-continuous patterns of enrolment are linked to lower learning levels in all countries, as are key indicators of home background disadvantage. Large differences in learning and learning progress are also found between the four countries' education sytems, with "learning gains" being typically highest in Vietnam and much lower in India (Andhra Pradesh) and Ethiopia. Inequalities linked to prior learning and home backgrounds are wide in Peru, while in Ethiopia and India relatively low levels of learning progress are a more general concern. In Ethiopia, both enrolment and quality improvements remain priorities for policy, while in India high levels of primary school enrolment, at younger ages than in the other study countries, suggest that comprehensive quality improvements may be required, nonetheless with a focus on disadvantaged pupils and those with low attainment in the early years.

The changing population age structure has a significant influence on the economy, society, and numerous other aspects of a country. This paper has innovatively applied the method of compositional data forecasting for the prediction of population age changes of the young (aged 0–14), the middle-aged (aged 15–64), and the elderly (aged older than 65) in China, India, and Vietnam by 2030 based on data from 1960 to 2016. To select the best-suited forecasting model, an array of data transformation approaches and forecasting models have been extensively employed, and a large number of comparisons have been made between the aforementioned methods. The best-suited model for each country is identified considering the root mean squared error and mean absolute percent error values from the compositional data. As noted in this study, first and foremost, it is predicted that by the year 2030, China will witness the disappearance of population dividend and get mired in an aging problem far more severe than that of India or Vietnam. Second, Vietnam’s trend of change in population age structure resembles that of China, but the country will sustain its good health as a whole. Finally, the working population of India demonstrates a strong rising trend, indicating that the age structure of the Indian population still remains relatively “young”. Meanwhile, the continuous rise in the proportion of elderly population and the gradual leveling off growth of the young population have nevertheless become serious problems in the world. The present paper attempts to offer crucial insights into the Asian population size, labor market and urbanization, and, moreover, provides suggestions for a sustainable global demographic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]