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We investigate the spatial dynamics of two-disease epidemics reaching a three-species cyclic model. Regardless of their species, all individuals are susceptible to being infected with two different pathogens, which spread through person-to-person contact. We consider that the simultaneous presence of multiple infections leads to a synergistic amplification in the probability of host mortality due to complications arising from any of the co-occurring diseases. Employing stochastic simulations, we explore the ramifications of this synergistic coinfection on spatial configurations that emerge from stochastic initial conditions. Under conditions of pronounced synergistic coinfection, we identify the emergence of zones inhabited solely by hosts affected by a singular pathogen. At the boundaries of spatial domains dominated by a single disease, interfaces of coinfected hosts appear. The dynamics of these interfaces are shaped by curvature-driven processes and display a scaling behavior reflective of the topological attributes of the underlying two-dimensional space. As the lethality linked to coinfection diminishes, the evolution of the interface network's spatial dynamics is influenced by fluctuations stemming from waves of coinfection that infiltrate territories predominantly occupied by a single disease. Our analysis extends to quantifying the implications of synergistic coinfection at both the individual and population levels Our outcomes show that organisms' infection risk is maximized if the coinfection increases the death due to disease by 30% and minimized as the network dynamics reach the scaling regime, with species populations being maximum. Our conclusions may help ecologists understand the dynamics of epidemics and their impact on the stability of ecosystems., (© 2023 Author(s). Published under an exclusive license by AIP Publishing.)

A group of TB experts with vast clinical and epidemiological experience were drawn from a pool of doctors, epidemiologists and scientists participating in NATCON 2020 Conference in a closed-door session to discuss, highlight, and prioritize key resolutions that are most pertinent at present to eliminate TB from India and other developing countries in the Covid and post-COVID era. These Scientific experts were non-industry persons who met on 17th December, 2020 and used the prevailing scientific literature along with 2019 Joint Monitoring Mission document as a starting point of the discussion on this specific topic to build an agreement upon the resolutions. After the meeting on the virtual platform, all the attending doctors gave a set of recommendations on rebuilding TB Elimination programme in the Covid and Post-Covid era. Focused scientific roundtable discussion on rebuilding TB Elimination Post-Covid. Develop actionable recommendations for the scientific community and the government leadership to consider in moving forward. To prioritize the recommendations in the categories of Build-Prevent-Detect-Treat., (Copyright © 2021 Tuberculosis Association of India. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

In past decades, we have seen several epidemics of respiratory infections from newly emerging viruses, most of which originated in animals. These emerging infections, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV), Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and the pandemic influenza A(H1N1) and avian influenza (AI) viruses, have seriously threatened global health and the economy. In particular, MERS-CoV and AI A(H7N9) are still causing infections in several areas, and some clustering of cases of A(H5N1) and A(H7N9) may imply future possible pandemics. Additionally, given the inappropriate use of antibiotics and international travel, the spread of carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative bacteria is also a significant concern. These infections with epidemic or pandemic potential present a persistent threat to public health and a huge burden on healthcare services in the Asia-Pacific region. Therefore, to enable efficient infection prevention and control, more effective international surveillance and collaboration systems, in the context of the 'One Health' approach, are necessary., (© 2019 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.)

ArgumentThe paper argues that epidemic surveillance and state-building were closely interconnected in interwar Poland. Starting from the paper technology of weekly epidemiological reporting it discusses how the reporting scheme of Polish epidemics came into being in the context of a typhus epidemic in 1919-20. It then shows how the statistics regarding nation-wide epidemics was put into practice. It is only when we take into account these practices that we can understand the epidemiological order the statistics produced. The preprinted weekly report form registered Jews and Christians separately. Yet, the imagined national epidemiological space that emerged from it hardly took notice of this separation. Rather, the category that differentiated Polish epidemiological space in medical discourse was the capacity of contributing to the state-making practices of epidemic surveillance. This category divided Poland into two regions: a civilized and modern western region and a backward and peripheral eastern region.

The advent of the HIV/AIDS crisis transformed the desirability of committed heterosexual relationships. This paper employs a difference-in-differences approach to investigate the impact of the HIV/AIDS crisis on marriage rates. By using HIV/AIDS death rates as a proxy for HIV incidence, the study exploits county-level variations in HIV/AIDS mortality and finds that counties with higher HIV/AIDS death rates experienced larger gains in marriage rates in the early years of the epidemic. Estimates suggest that the virus increased marriage rates by approximately 0.9% in the early years of the virus (1981-1988)., (© 2024 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has made a huge impact on the global industrial supply chains. Undoubtedly, COVID-19 is posing severe challenges to the pulp and paper industry worldwide. On the other hand, this pandemic may provide unprecedented possibilities for the pulp and paper manufacturers in areas such as the increasing demand for personal hygiene paper products, food packaging products, corrugated packaging materials, medical specialty papers, etc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Epidemic Diseases Act (EDA) was enacted in February 1897 by the Government of India to prevent and control the spread of the plague. Since then, the Act has become a key legal tool for the control of epidemics/pandemics in India. We attempted to understand the international and domestic pressures that led to the adoption of the EDA in three ways. First, we analyse the legislative structure (Bombay Municipal Act of 1888, Indian Railways Act of 1890, and Act I of 1870) that dealt with infectious or contagious diseases in colonial India before the EDA came into force. Second, we focus on the linkages between international and domestic pressures that necessitated the adoption of the EDA. Third, we analyse the discussions of the Council of the Governor General of India on the bill titled 'A Bill to Provide for the better prevention of the spread of Dangerous Epidemic Diseases', which later became the Epidemic Diseases Act No. III of 1897. We situate the EDA in an international context of International Sanitary Conferences, quarantine, trade concerns, and pilgrimage to Mecca in order to understand the pressures that impacted British epidemic policy formation in colonial India.

Recent work by Volz (J Math Biol 56:293-310, 2008) has shown how to calculate the growth and eventual decay of an SIR epidemic on a static random network, assuming infection and recovery each happen at constant rates. This calculation allows us to account for effects due to heterogeneity and finiteness of degree that are neglected in the standard mass-action SIR equations. In this note we offer an alternate derivation which arrives at a simpler-though equivalent-system of governing equations to that of Volz. This new derivation is more closely connected to the underlying physical processes, and the resulting equations are of comparable complexity to the mass-action SIR equations. We further show that earlier derivations of the final size of epidemics on networks can be reproduced using the same approach, thereby providing a common framework for calculating both the dynamics and the final size of an epidemic spreading on a random network. Under appropriate assumptions these equations reduce to the standard SIR equations, and we are able to estimate the magnitude of the error introduced by assuming the SIR equations.

In this paper, we are concerned with two SIS epidemic reaction-diffusion models with mass action infection mechanism of the form SI, and study the spatial profile of population distribution as the movement rate of the infected individuals is restricted to be small. For the model with a constant total population number, our results show that the susceptible population always converges to a positive constant which is indeed the minimum of the associated risk function, and the infected population either concentrates at the isolated highest-risk points or aggregates only on the highest-risk intervals once the highest-risk locations contain at least one interval. In sharp contrast, for the model with a varying total population number which is caused by the recruitment of the susceptible individuals and death of the infected individuals, our results reveal that the susceptible population converges to a positive function which is non-constant unless the associated risk function is constant, and the infected population may concentrate only at some isolated highest-risk points, or aggregate at least in a neighborhood of the highest-risk locations or occupy the whole habitat, depending on the behavior of the associated risk function and even its smoothness at the highest-risk locations. Numerical simulations are performed to support and complement our theoretical findings., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

We already know that 2020 is a year to remember. It is fair to wonder how many essays of this issue of Biography's International Year in Review will center on [...]

There is extensive evidence that network structure (e.g., air transport, rivers, or roads) may significantly enhance the spread of epidemics into the surrounding geographical area. A new compartmental modeling framework is proposed which couples well-mixed (ODE in time) population centers at the vertices, 1D travel routes on the graph's edges, and a 2D continuum containing the rest of the population to simulate how an infection spreads through a population. The edge equations are coupled to the vertex ODEs through junction conditions, while the domain equations are coupled to the edges through boundary conditions. A numerical method based on spatial finite differences for the edges and finite elements in the 2D domain is described to approximate the model, and numerical verification of the method is provided. The model is illustrated on two simple and one complex example geometries, and a parameter study example is performed. The observed solutions exhibit exponential decay after a certain time has passed, and the cumulative infected population over the vertices, edges, and domain tends to a constant in time but varying in space, i.e., a steady state solution., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to the Society for Mathematical Biology.)

Copyright of China Forestry Economy is the property of China Forestry Economy Magazine Agency and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Aims and Objectives: This study aimed to examine the lived experience of physicians and nurses who underwent hospitalised isolation during the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak that hit Korea in 2015, and how it may have affected their professional self-image., Background: Health professionals caring for patients during infectious outbreaks such as the Middle East respiratory syndrome have reported negative psychological effects. However, little is known about how the experience influences their professional self-image., Design: An interpretive phenomenological approach was applied using individual in-depth interviews., Methods: Through purposeful and snowball sampling, 11 health professionals who had experienced hospital isolation due to suspicious symptoms of Middle East respiratory syndrome during the outbreak, participated in face-to-face interviews (50-90 min). We adhered to the Consolidated Criteria for Reporting Qualitative Research guideline for reporting., Results: Six themes were identified: (a) engulfed in chaos and exhaustion; (b) feeling hurt and constrained by the rejection and blame; (c) anxiety induced by the enclosed environment; (d) dread of this uncertain and critical disease; (e) sustained by family and colleagues; and (f) reflection at this turning point, expanding self-understanding and seeking a balance., Conclusion: Hospitalised isolation was a "turning point" that appeared to change health professionals' sense of identity and direction., Relevance to Clinical Practice: Preparedness for infectious epidemics should ensure tangible assistance, protection, and clear communication with health professionals, with careful attention to their psychological needs and affirmation of their self-image in the aftermath., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Copyright of Revista Española de Quimioterapia is the property of Sociedad Espanola de Quimioterapia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Aim: This study aimed to investigate the impact of communicable diseases with epidemic potential in complex emergency (CE) situations, focusing on the epidemiological profile of incidence and mortality and exploring underlying factors contributing to increased epidemic risks., Methods: Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses for Scoping Review (PRISMA-ScR) guidelines, we conducted a scoping review of articles published between 1990 and 2022. The search included terms related to complex emergencies, communicable diseases, outbreaks, and epidemics. We identified 92 epidemics related to CE occurring in 32 different countries., Results: Communicable diseases like Shigellosis, Cholera, Measles, Meningococcal meningitis, Yellow Fever, and Malaria caused significant morbidity and mortality. Diarrhoeal diseases, particularly Cholera and Shigellosis, had the highest incidence rates. Shigella specifically had an incidence of 241.0 per 1000 (people at risk), with a mortality rate of 11.7 per 1000, while Cholera's incidence was 13.0 per 1000, with a mortality rate of 0.22 per 1000. Measles followed, with an incidence of 25.0 per 1000 and a mortality rate of 0.76 per 1000. Meningococcal Meningitis had an incidence rate of 1.3 per 1000 and a mortality rate of 0.13 per 1000. Despite their lower incidences, yellow fever at 0.8 per 1000 and malaria at 0.4 per 1000, their high case fatality rates of 20.1% and 0.4% remained concerning in CE. The qualitative synthesis reveals that factors such as water, sanitation, and hygiene, shelter and settlements, food and nutrition, and public health and healthcare in complex emergencies affect the risk of epidemics., Conclusion: Epidemics during complex emergencies could potentially lead to a public health crisis. Between 1990 and 2022, there have been no statistically significant changes in the trend of incidence, mortality, or fatality rates of epidemic diseases in CE. It is crucial to understand that all epidemics identified in CE are fundamentally preventable., (© 2024 The Authors Tropical Medicine & International Health Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The final infection size is defined as the total number of individuals that become infected throughout an epidemic. Despite its importance for predicting the fraction of the population that will end infected, it does not capture which part of the infected population will present symptoms. Knowing this information is relevant because it is related to the severity of the epidemics. The objective of this work is to give a formula for the total number of symptomatic cases throughout an epidemic. Specifically, we focus on different types of structured SIR epidemic models (in which infected individuals can possibly become symptomatic before recovering), and we compute the accumulated number of symptomatic cases when time goes to infinity using a probabilistic approach. The methodology behind the strategy we follow is relatively independent of the details of the model., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

To what extent does voluntary association participation correlate with reduced Ebola duration in districts of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone during the epidemic in West Africa in 2013-16? This study, the first cross-national quantitative analysis of Ebola outcomes across these countries, answers this question by investigating how social capital influences epidemic outcomes. Ebola virus disease struck along the borders of three countries with similar levels of human development as well as cultural practices, yet resulted in different outcomes. This study examines the role of social trust, political trust, voluntary association participation, religious organisation membership, and community meeting attendance in explaining international policy failure to reduce Ebola outcomes. Overall, in districts with a culture of raising issues and participating in voluntary and religious organisations, Ebola duration rates were lower. These findings have implications not only for health crisis response, but also for disaster response and the provision of international aid to civil society., (© 2022 The Authors Disasters © 2022 ODI.)

Background The recent emergence of Chikungunya Virus (CHIKV) in the Americas constitutes a major public health problem on this continent, where the mosquito vector is widespread. The rapid diagnosis of suspected cases is essential for the monitoring and control of this ongoing outbreak. However, this requires reliable tools that are difficult to establish in areas without specialized laboratories. Objectives The aim was to evaluate the performances of serum samples spotted onto filter paper for molecular and serological diagnosis of Chikungunya infection. Study design Analyses were performed from frozen sera and serum spotted onto filter paper provided from 121 Chikungunya suspected cases collected at a biological laboratory on Saint-Martin Island. Results This approach performed well in comparisons with standard methods, with a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 93.6% for the combined technical approaches (RT-PCR and serological results). Comparisons of serum samples spotted onto filter paper and frozen samples showed a concordance rate of 94.8% in molecular tests and 98.2% in serological tests. Conclusions This simple sampling technique could overcome the problems of the lack of efficient CHIKV diagnosis tools in remote regions, providing good results regardless of the molecular or serological approach used. This simple filter paper-based method can be used to diagnose both chikungunya and dengue infections, as previously demonstrated following transport at ambient temperature to specialized laboratories. Given the set-up costs and high performance of this method, it could be recommended for the monitoring and control of Chikungunya virus expansion in the Americas and in other affected regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the exponential growth of the number of subjects affected by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the entire Italian health care system had to respond promptly and in a very short time with the need of semi-intensive and intensive care units. Moreover, trained dedicated COVID-19 teams consisting of physicians were coming from different specialties (intensivists or pneumologists and infectiologists), while respiratory therapists and nurses have been recruited to work on and on without rest. However, due to still limited and evolving knowledge of COVID-19, there are few recommendations concerning the need in respiratory rehabilitation and physiotherapy interventions. The presentation of this paper is the result of a consensus promoted by the Italian societies of respiratory health care professionals who contacted pulmonologists directly involved in the treatment and rehabilitation of COVID-19. The aim was to formulate the more proper and common suggestions to be applied in different hospital settings in offering rehabilitative programs and physiotherapy workforce planning for COVID-19 patients. Two main areas of intervention were identified: organization and treatment, which are described in this paper to face the emergency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ebola is a highly infectious and often fatal zoonotic disease endemic to West and Central Africa. Local outbreaks of the disease are common, but the largest recorded Ebola epidemic originated in Guinea in December 2013, spreading to Liberia, and Sierra Leone in the following year and lasting until April 2016. The epidemic presented a serious challenge to local healthcare systems and foreign aid agencies: it degraded services, caused the loss of healthcare professionals, disrupted the economy, and reduced trust in modern healthcare. This study aims to estimate the extent to which variation in one long-term measure of the quality of local healthcare (the child vaccination rate) is a consequence of local variation in the intensity of the epidemic. Applying a "difference-in-differences" model to household survey data from before and after the epidemic, we show that in 2018-2019, overall rates of vaccination for BCG, DPT, measles, and polio are lower in Guinean and Sierra Leonean districts that had a relatively high incidence of Ebola; statistical analysis indicates that this is a causal effect. The effects of the epidemic on access to healthcare have been local effects, at least in part., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

The COVID-19 pandemic was characterized by multiple subsequent, overlapping outbreaks, as well as extremely rapid changes in viral genomes. The information about local epidemics spread and the epidemic control measures was shared on a daily basis (number of cases and deaths) via centralized repositories. The vaccines were developed within the first year of the pandemic. New modes of monitoring and sharing of epidemic data were implemented using Internet resources. We modified the basic SEIR compartmental model to include public health measures, multiwave scenarios, and the variation of viral infectivity and transmissibility reflected by the basic reproduction number R 0 of emerging viral variants. SVEIR(MH) model considers the capacity of the medical system, lockdowns, vaccination, and changes in viral reproduction rate on the epidemic spread. The developed model uses daily infection reports for assessing the epidemic dynamics, and daily changes of mobility data from mobile phone networks to assess the lockdown effectiveness. This model was deployed to six European regions Baden-Württemberg (Germany), Belgium, Czechia, Lombardy (Italy), Sweden, and Switzerland for the first 2 years of the pandemic. The correlation coefficients between observed and reported infection data showed good concordance for both years of the pandemic (ρ = 0.84-0.94 for the raw data and ρ = 0.91-0.98 for smoothed 7-day averages). The results show stability across the regions and the different epidemic waves. Optimal control of epidemic waves can be achieved by dynamically adjusting epidemic control measures in real-time. SVEIR(MH) model can simulate different scenarios and inform adjustments to the public health policies to achieve the target outcomes. Because this model is highly representative of actual epidemic situations, it can be used to assess both the public health and socioeconomic effects of the public health measures within the first 7 days of the outbreak., (© 2023 Wiley Periodicals LLC.)