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The globalization process and the war in Ukraine show us that migration is one of the strongest global trends in the modern economy. For this paper, we determined three types of migration, depending on the intention of the people involved, these being labor, educational, and refugee migration. Each type has a different influence on the macroeconomic process. However, in this paper, we investigate the influence of general migration on GDP. We analyze five factors that have major influences on GDP, namely, migration (I), interest rate (IR), active population (AP), export (E), and the consumer price index (CPI). For the purposes of this paper, vector autoregressive models (VAR models) were chosen to perform the analysis. We used the Granger causality test to investigate the lag structure and identified the exogenous variables in the VAR model, such as GDP, migration, and the active population. We investigated the cross-influence between these factors and found that migration has a negative effect on the active population and a positive effect on GDP, while GDP growth leads to a decrease in migration. The Akaike and Schwartz criteria showed the high quality of the VAR models. The impulse analysis of shock influences identifies the structure of the reaction seen in GDP and migration, depending on their shock factors. Using decomposition analysis, we found that migration and GDP influence each other by 10–14%, which can improve the forecasting of these factors and the study of structural migration by the use of these three types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of New Economist / Novi Ekonomist is the property of University of East Sarajevo and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The paper empirically explores the impact of external public debt in Ukraine on key macroeconomic indicators such as real GDP growth, real effective exchange rate, and current account balance. The рrоЫеm of increasing external debt affects not only the рrоЫеms of balance of payments fluctuations but also economic security and economic growth. We have tested the hypotheses regarding the impact of Ukraine 's external public debt on these indicators in the short and long run. As an empirical tool for hypotheses testing vector autoregression models (VaR models) have been chosen. The results of constructed models show the acceleration of the extemal public debt growth provokes the GDP growth rate to fall with subsequent macrostabilization. The reaction of the GDP growth rate to the shock of the real effective exchange rate is mоrе noticeable. The shock of real effective exchange rate has led to increase in extemal public debt with а furtheir dampening to zero.Empirical data from the VaR model confirm that external debt has а negative impact on GDP and essentially behaves similarly to the shock of REER strengthening. Research results confirm the relationship between external public debt, real effective exchange rate, and GDP growth in Ukraine. Based on the models it was analyzed the external public debt and real effective exchange rate shocks influence the ideal gross domestic product growth rate. The growth of external public debt leads to the GDP growth rate fall bу 1 % during а year and а half with subsequent stabilization in the future. GDP growth fluctuations are explained mainly bу their own fluctuations while external public debt is accounting f or 2,5-8% of its fluctuations. Fluctuations in external public debt of 7-10% are explained bу current account fluctuations in Ukraine. The described results of the model correspond to the concept of dependent есоnоmу. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Finding a way of achieving economic growth in the crisis period due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and probable global regression aggravates the need for the implementation of managerial solutions of entering or intensifying participation in the perspective markets. The ICT industry has been a locomotive of economic development for the last decade for participating economies. The basic idea of the paper is based on the need to analyze the impact of countries' participation in the ICT services market on their economic growth, consumer price indices (CPI), and exchange rates. The purpose was achieved by performing an analysis of the state and dynamics of the main indicators of the world ICT services market. The results show that the volume of ICT services exported and imported is growing. Moreover, we aimed to provide empirical evidence on the ICT services market's impact on the economic parameters of the countries. We proposed a statistical model of Pearson's r regression, based on the data of GDP values, CPI, and exchange rates of the 30 largest markets accounting for more than 90% of the ICT world market. The core results demonstrate stronger ICT services export and import correlation with GDP for economies with lower GDP per capita. The model shows a high success rate depending on variables. Based on the results obtained during modelling, propositions, and recommendations for countries with different socio-economic development levels were given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article is devoted to the essence and features of the formation of personal income tax gaps. The object of the paper is 1795 publications indexed in the Scopus database on the tax gaps in the national economy. The time horizon of the study was in 1935—2021. On the basis of bibliometric analysis, the main directions of the study of tax gaps are determine, the trend of changing the number of publications on this issue is analyzed. It is concluded that the theory of tax gap management is quite young and is currently only in its infancy. By the VOSViewer tools, five patterns of frequency of use of keywords in scientific works devoted to the issues of forming tax gaps have been identified, their connection with other economic categories have been determined. The analysis of the publications indexed in the Scopus database on a geographical basis is carried out. Clustering international research networks based on bibliometric analysis of scientific papers on the theory of tax gaps management by geographical location have been done. The article identifies the top Scientific Journals indexed by the Scopus database in which the issues of tax gap management were published most often. According to the Scopus database the most popular theories within this problem are: social theories, inequality and tax morality, management and motivation theories, sustainable development theory, production theory, concepts of fiscal policy implementation. A methodical approach to the assessment of tax gaps for personal income tax is proposed. The personal income tax gaps for Ukraine and European Union countries has been estimated. An average volume of personal income tax gaps within 7—28 %, and there is no positive dynamics in its reducing. The countries with the highest volume of personal income tax gaps include Greece, Poland, the Slovak Republic, Turkey, with the lowest — Germany, Belgium, Latvia, Luxembourg. Based on the Multiple regressions test, the hypothesis about the significant impact of tax gaps on personal income tax on the country’s economic development indicators was tested. Graphical interpretation of the link between the personal income tax gap and GDP for Ukraine and European Union countries indicates a negative correlation between them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study explores the inter-relations between green and renewable energy and carbon risk. Key market participants with varying time horizons include traders, authorities, and other financial entities. This research examines these relationships and frequency dimensions from February 7, 2017, to June 13, 2022, using novel multivariate wavelet analysis approaches, such as partial wavelet coherency and partial wavelet gain. The multiple coherencies between green bond, clean energy, and carbon emission futures imply that these regions were situated at low frequencies (relating to approximately 124-day frequency) and run from the beginning of 2017 to the beginning of 2018, in the first half of 2020, and from the beginning of 2022 to the end of the sample. The relationship between the solar energy index, envitec biogas, biofuels, geothermal energy, and carbon emission futures, is significant in the low-frequency band starting from early 2020 to middle 2022 and in the high-frequency band starting from early 2022 to middle 2022. Our research demonstrates the partial coherencies between these indicators during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The partial coherency between the S&P green bond index and carbon risk suggests that carbon risk pushes anti-phase connectedness. The partial phase difference S&P global clean energy index and carbon emission futures (from early April 2022 to the end of April 2022) recommend that indicators are in-phase with carbon risk pushing and the phase (from early May 2022 to middle June 2022), suggesting that carbon emission futures are in-phase with S&P global clean energy index pushing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the article, the main alternatives to allocation of savings of households outside the banking system of Ukraine have been investigated. The main emphasis is made on the institutional investors and the potential growth of their assets, subject to the overflow of household savings from the banking system, as well as contributions of the individuals' income. Evidence shows multiple assets growths of mutual funds, private pension funds, and life insurance companies. The authors have formulated a list of factors that will contribute to such an overflow of funds. Among them are the following: the overall level of economic stability in the country, the level of individuals' income, their willingness to make long-term investments, dissemination of public information about the scope and methods of savings allocation. Given the fact that a substantial portion of institutional investors' assets is traditionally invested in capital market instruments, the importance of further development of such financial intermediaries is emphasized in this paper. The authors have proposed a linear multiple regression model which shows a direct dependence of the Ukrainian stock market trading volume from changes in GDP and gross public debt, as well as an inverse dependence from changes in the consumer price index, gross savings, and deposit rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current trends in economic development of most countries highlight the need to improve existing tools for their economic growth and sustainable development. An important aspect in this direction is the implementation of the policy of de-shadowing of the economy. The article analyzes the current world trends in the functioning of the shadow economy, identifies the most common schemes of shadow capital withdrawal and approaches to their classification. The systematization of the existing methodical approaches to the assessment of the level of shadowing of the economy is carried out, their advantages and disadvantages are determined. The expediency of developing a unified approach to estimating the volume of shadow financial flows, which is based on taking into account the multi-channel schemes of shadow capital outflow, is substantiated. An integral aspect of the functioning of Ukraine's economy in recent years is the shadow sector. Modern business conditions, characterized by instability of economic development indicators, variability of internal and external environment, serve as an additional stimulus to the transition of economic entities into the shadows or the use of various schemes of concealment of income within the legitimate field of their activity. In an effort to maximize their income, businesses are increasingly carrying out shady financial transactions. Therefore, the search for the main directions of improving the effectiveness of state policy to de-shadow the economy is an important scientific task in the context of macroeconomic instability of the country and the low level of its economic security. The aim of the article is to investigate current trends in the functioning of the shadow economy and to conduct a comparative analysis of methodological approaches to assessing its level. The paper analyzes the current world trends in the functioning of the shadow economy, identifies the most common schemes of shadow capital withdrawal and approaches to their classification. The results of the analysis allow us to conclude that there is a significant variety of schemes for the shadow withdrawal of funds, the number of which is growing every year. The use of new forms of entrepreneurial activity, digitalization of the economy often only deepen the existing imbalances in the economy and leads to the emergence of nontraditional (digital shadow economy) schemes of income concealment. The presence of already ineffective mechanisms to counteract the shadowing of the economy also does not contribute to the emergence of economic entities from the shadows. One of the reasons for this situation is the lack of a unified effective and objective methodological approach to assessing the level of the shadow economy, and therefore complete information about the actual volume of shadow financial flows in the country. The systematization of the existing methodical approaches to the assessment of the level of shadow economy is carried out, their advantages and disadvantages are determined. The priority task in the direction of de-shadowing of the economy is to develop an adequate approach to assessing the level of the shadow economy, which is based on all potential schemes of income concealment and identify priority measures to combat shadow capital flight. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study is concerned with forecasts of GDP growth for the Visegrad countries (V4-hereafter) and oil prices simultaneously. The series for GDP and Oil prices are quarterly, covering the period from December 1, 2000, to October 1, 2023. Neural network techniques were performed to generate individual forecasts. The forecasts for oil prices maintain higher accuracy than the GDP ones due to autoregressive lags. In other words, current oil prices absorb significant influence from past prices. The GDP forecasts for the V4 group indicate tremendous shock and moving growth to a lower steady state. The lower growth observed by the end of the period under review can be attributed to two subsequent non-economic shocks: the Russia-Ukraine war and the COVID-19 pandemic. The V4 countries faced difficulties after the outbreak of COVID-19, mainly due to the stringency measures. In addition to accelerating inflation, the war also disrupted energy commodities within supply chains. These and other facts justify the low growth that awaits these countries until 2028. Ultimately, the oil price until 2028 is estimated to oscillate between $60 and $90 per barrel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of economic development and the stability of economic processes of countries is a critically important task, as it helps to understand and analyze the processes taking place in the economic systems of countries. Countries differ significantly in terms of economic development, and their grouping according to certain parameters helps to better understand the general picture of the economic state of the country. The article proposes to group EU countries according to the level of economic development and the level of the economic processes’ stability based on GDP and GDP per capita indicators using ABC and XYZ analysis. The study was conducted on the basis of the countries of the European Union (EU) for the period 2015-2022 since the EU is a large regional association of countries with common economic, political and social goals. The statistical data of the World Bank served as the information base. The existence of discrepancies for countries between the level of GDP and the level of GDP per capita was revealed. Ukraine was also ranked according to the level of economic development and the level of the economic processes’ stability based on GDP and GDP per capita indicators since this country is a candidate for EU membership in 2022. The results of the study will help to understand the mosaic of the economic situation in different EU countries and highlight key conclusions for further research or decision-making. This information can be useful for understanding the main trends in the economy of the European region, identifying possible areas for cooperation and investment, as well as for developing strategies to improve development and stability in each of the EU countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper deals with analysis and evaluation of impact of information and communication technologies (ICT) on economic growth at the different hierarchical levels. Based on global tendencies of ICT development and their use as a factor of competitive advantages, it is proved that sustainable socioeconomic growth has acquired features of permanent digital development. For developing countries steep ICT development can enforce new impulse of economic progress, which in turn, is proved by correlation analysis and modeling of ICT factors influence on the main financial results. Considering current ICT development trends in business (based on case study of Ukraine ICT use statistics as one of the developing countries) and their relations with financial results, the main policy making actions aiming at further economic development can be defined. They should be aimed mainly at Internet access outspread and webtechnologies effective use, particularly in the field of e-commerce. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Energy Policy Journal / Polityka Energetyczna is the property of Mineral & Energy Economy Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Informacion Comercial Espanola Revista de Economia is the property of S.G.E.E.I.P.C., Secretaria de Estado de Comercio, Ministerio de Industria, Comercio y Turismo and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article presents an overview of Ukraine's economic dilemma in the aftermath of the recent elections in the country. A former economic advisor to the government and co-chair of the United Nation's Blue Ribbon Commission for Ukraine relates his insights into the causes of three acute problems including inflation, corruption, and the lack of structural reforms. The paper focuses on the state of economic affairs in 2008, which includes data on economic growth and exchange rates. It also discusses the potential consequences of rising food and commodity prices and Ukranian monetary unit peg to the dollar.

Copyright of Economy of Industry is the property of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Institute of the Economy of Industry and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article examines the role of the digital economy as a factor in the economic development of the state. It is established that the impact of the digital economy on the economic development of the state can be assessed based on its impact on macroeconomic indicators. To assess the impact of the digital economy as a factor in Ukraine’s economic development, regression models of the impact of the digital economy on gross domestic product, inflation and the hryvnia exchange rate against the US dollar were built. It is established that the development of IT services in Ukraine has an upward trend, the reliability of which is 96%. It is proved that the correlation between the growth dynamics of the volume of IT services provided in Ukraine and the gross domestic product is 79%. This proves the existence of a connection between the growth of gross domestic product and the development of the digital economy in Ukraine. The inverse influence of the development of the digital economy on the inflation rate in Ukraine is proved. The correlation between them is 67% and is negative, as the development of IT services helps to reduce inflation and maintain price stability. A low level of correlation between the volume of IT services in Ukraine and the dynamics of the hryvnia exchange rate against the US dollar was revealed. This is due to the fact that IT services are consumed by residents and lead to a direct inflow of foreign currency into Ukraine. Testing of the models of the impact of the digital economy represented by IT services on the indicators of Ukraine’s economic development has shown that IT services have a statistically significant impact on the inflation rate. It is established that the low impact of the digital economy on the gross domestic product in Ukraine is due to the small share of the digital economy. It is proved that with the increase of the share of digital economy its influence on the economic development of the state grows. Forecasting the trend values of economic development parameters showed that in the future the volume of IT services in Ukraine will increase, which will help maintain price stability and increase the volume of gross domestic product. Given the export of IT services, the digital economy will have a positive impact on the strengthening of the hryvnia against the US dollar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the article is to study the relationship between vocational training costs and economic benefits at different levels of economic relations. In the structure of labour costs in the EU, there was the highest share of vocational training costs in Ireland (2.79%), Great Britain (2.53%), France (1.51%), which is reflected in the economic success of these countries. A comparison with Ukraine, which has European integration intentions, confirms that the underestimated role of investing in lifelong learning has relevant links to economic performance. This study at the enterprise level (based on the survey of 356 employees) found that higher costs of vocational training are a sign of profitable enterprises. At the same time, employees' interest in short-term training programs is higher, which they obviously assess from the standpoint of higher personal economic benefits in the short term. At the same time, the analysis performed by means of the Fechner correlation coefficient confirms the existence of a positive impact of vocational training costs on changes in the main macroeconomic benefits indicator - GDP per capita. This allows drawing conclusions about the need to develop professional training programs for staff as one of the drivers of macroeconomic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Economy of Industry is the property of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Institute of the Economy of Industry and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Raising social standards is an essential instrument of social policy by the state. However, the decision to raise the minimum wage rather sharply should consider its impact on fiscal and monetary policy. The article aims to study how government decisions on social standards (in particular minimum wages) can influence monetary policy decisions based on inflation targeting. Results of the research. The method of analysis of indicators and consequences of the introduction of inflation targeting in Ukraine, geographical neighbors and countries with similar economies is described. It is determined that the final effect of changes in social standards on inflation depends on the entire transmission mechanism, which includes several interrelated reactions, and maybe stretched over time, depending on both the speed of transmission of the impulse and the specifics of institutional regulation. It is established that the criterion for a dramatic increase in the minimum wage is a significant upward shift of the minimum wage to the average wage ratio curve. In this case, as we have shown, inflation expectations worsen, which modifies somewhat the behaviour of economic agents and is transferred to current inflation rates in the future. Raising social standards is a good decision of the government in order to maintain household incomes. However, to ensure the neutrality of such a decision for fiscal and monetary policy, it needs to be aligned with its objectives and strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ensuring stable economic development of the country is the main task of state authorities. Investment security is an important component of economic security, plays an important role during the sustainable development of the country’s economy. Modern globalization processes play an important role during the development of the system for the formation and protection of investment security. In addition, the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic has led to the identification of new negative factors, endogenous and exogenous changes, which have made significant adjustments to the development of a stable economy in the country. To combat this pandemic, a state of emergency was introduced, it concerned either an entire country or a separate region or a separate sphere. The countries of the world, for their part, introduced sanitary and epidemiological measures to avoid the spread of the disease. The rapid introduction of these measures, as well as the development and implementation of steps that dealt with mitigating the consequences of the pandemic, caused a slowdown in economic development not only in the countries of the world, but also in Ukraine. The main factor in determining the level of investment security can be a study of the state of the investment climate in the country. The pandemic significantly affected the stability of the economy, in particular, created a negative field for ensuring investment security. Investments, being a long-term «feeding» of the economy, is not only a key condition for modernizing the national economy, but also the main factor of its economic security. The «safe» properties of investments are determined by the ability to make capital investments and production savings at a level that guarantees sufficient rates of expanded reproduction, technological re-equipment and economic restructuring, directly increases the potential for protecting economic interests from threats of various approaches. GDP. Assessment of the current level of investment made it possible to determine the adequacy of the provision of the Ukrainian economy with investments, is an indicator of the country’s investment security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The ASEAN member states have very different levels of economic development, population, and area, but the Association is quite successful and has become an important player in the international arena, influencing global economy and policy. The purpose of the article is to analyze the macroeconomic indicators and trends in the foreign and domestic trade of the ASEAN member states, as well as to study the courses of developing cooperation with Ukraine for the organization, in general, and for each member state, in particular. The article suggests draft recommendations on the association’s further development and on the priority of this market for Ukraine. The composition, main goals and areas of cooperation between the ASEAN member states have been outlined. The role and position of the Association’s individual member states has been described. The main macroeconomic indicators of the ASEAN member states have been analyzed, namely: the population size and the occupational patterns for individual countries; trends for the GDP (in total and per country); the structure and evolution of trade relations; the Extra- and Intra-exports structure; the export and import structure and regional pattern of the ASEAN trade. The export-import turnover between the ASEAN member states and Ukraine has been assessed in terms of its commodity composition. A prognostic model of the GDP growth rate has been developed. The PEST analysis carried out has resulted in identifying the economic, political, technological and social factors which caused the creation of the association. A number of measures designed for improving cooperation between the ASEAN member states and Ukraine have been provided. The authors come to conclusion that the volume of trade between the member states within the Association, on the one hand, and between the member states and other countries outside the Association, including Ukraine, on the other hand, has increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today, the question of introducing state-of-the-art economic management technologies in Ukraine is very urgent, especially in the area of fiscal policy. Among all instruments of such policy, it is necessary to distinguish fiscal rules, which have positively proved themselves in foreign countries in the process of managing economic fluctuations, in overcoming economic crises and achieving sustainable economic growth. So, the study of the essence of such rules as the main tool for anti-cyclical regulation of the national economy, the peculiarities of their impact on the socioeconomic situation of the country and the possibility of their introduction in Ukraine are urgent questions. The purpose of the article is to study the impact of fiscal rules on the economic situation in the country, as well as the definition of place of such tools in the system of counter-cyclical regulation of the economy and the feasibility of their implementation in fiscal practice of Ukraine. It was established that the introduction of fiscal rules is associated with economic fluctuations, economic crises that shocked the economies of the world during the twentieth century - beginning of the XXI century. It was found that the introduction of fiscal rules is preceded by strategic planning and forecasting of the economic development of the country, which should be based and include a set of indicative indicators necessary to achieve future goals, and not a spontaneous solution, which can lead to further aggravation economic and social situation. The fiscal rule is a multifaceted instrument that aims to achieve overall macroeconomic stabilization and economic equilibrium. The authors believe that fiscal rules are the psychological tool for the government to enforce fiscal policy discipline. In the socio-economic conditions of Ukraine, it will be advisable to introduce fiscal restrictions that will serve to shape discipline, transparency in the budget process, debt policy, government spending policy and tax policy. Transparent, predetermined parameters will lead to the formation of a positive investment climate, increase the level of confidence in the government, reduce the shadow economy, and increase the social standards of living. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]