Search

This paper aims to present an input-output model of the forest-based bioeconomy, enabling insight into its contribution to total gross value added (GDP), employment, and CO2 emissions in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Finland. To quantify this contribution, the paper utilizes input-output tables of the four countries. The forest-based bioeconomy includes forestry, the processing of forestry products (forward linkages), and the direct and indirect use of inputs (backward linkages) from forestry and processing industries. Our analysis reveals that while forestry itself is a small industry, contributing minimally to GDP (ranging from 0.40% in Lithuania to 1.90% in Finland), and the forest-based bioeconomy is considerably larger. For instance, its contribution to GDP ranges from 3.59% in Lithuania to 7.22% in Estonia. Moreover, the forestry-based bioeconomy exhibits negative net CO2 emissions, primarily due to CO2 sequestration by forest lands and harvested wood products. Despite the substantial negative CO2 emissions associated with forestry activities, without sequestration, the forestry-based bioeconomy's share in total emissions ranges from 5.14% in Lithuania to 14.88% in Finland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Mineral Resources Management / Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi is the property of Mineral & Energy Economy Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In this paper, we address the effects of two fiscal policy delays on the dynamical analysis of macroeconomics. First, a time gap between the accrual of taxes and their payment is considered. Second, the time spent between the purchasing decisions and the actual expenditure is also taken into consideration. Since both these delays are significant in controlling macroeconomic conditions, this paper incorporates aforementioned delays into the IS–LM model. At first, a mathematical model is developed using delayed differential equations. Then a unique steady state solution is obtained. Around the equilibrium point, linear stability analysis is done. Also, the occurance of Hopf bifurcation is observed when delay crosses a critical point and switches in stability are also detected. Properties of Hopf bifurcation using center manifold theorem are discussed. Lastly, numerical simulations are run to verify our analysis. In this work, we considered a case study to perform simulation wherein GDP of India for last ten years is recorded for estimating some parameters. In different investment scenarios, numerical simulations corroborate the analytical findings of the model. Furthermore, rigorous analysis shows that adding the right mix of delays can help in maintaining/ regaining the stability after periods of instability, or even gaining stability in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The travel and tourism industry plays a crucial role in economies around the world. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism industry has been very pronounced. This paper aims to study the relationship between the country's T&T industry Share of Employment (TTEMPL) and the country's T&T industry Share of Gross Domestic Product (TTGDP). This study is specific because we do not focus on the development of indicators over time; instead, we propose the models for 117 countries using the quantile regression (QR) while comparing models in the context of COVID-19 (between 2019 and 2021). The results of the QR determined that individual percentiles of the TTGDP are more affected by the TTEMPL than other percentiles of the TTGDP, which is then reflected in the changes in regression coefficients. In addition, we compare analyzed indicators among countries according to region and income group. The study reveals that the tourism downturn caused by COVID-19 has adverse effects on the TTEMPL and the TTGDP. In addition, the results show that the impact of COVID-19 on the tourism industry appears to be varied among countries, regions, and income groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Green taxes are taxes collected to protect the environment by controlling the negative effects of certain activities and products on the environment. They are also an instrument of environmental policy and can therefore contribute to several sustainable development goals. According to the studies carried out, the green economy aims to ensure sustainable development. The main objective of this paper is to identify the existing relationships between green taxes and sustainable economic development through a dynamic panel analysis. A dynamic panel analysis was therefore carried out on the existing links between environmental taxes and charges at the European level and the indicators of the circular economy. The results of the two dynamic regressions for the two dependent variables, namely total green taxes and energy taxes, show a positive and significant correlation with the variation of GDP and with primary energy consumption, confirming the hypothesis that environmental taxes and energy taxes are closely linked to these two important indicators of sustainable development. Thus, as GDP changes, the taxes on energy production and the energy products used in both transport and stationary applications increase. As a result of the analysis, we can note that the increase in primary energy consumption and the consumption of raw materials leads to an increase in environmental and energy taxes. Energy taxes are a possible solution to reduce CO2 emissions in third world countries and may even stimulate climate action. In contrast, we found no significant correlation between green taxes and the following variables: Human Development Index, net greenhouse gas emissions, private investment and gross value added related to circular economy sectors, the consumption of raw materials, waste generated, waste treatment, the supply, transformation, and consumption of renewable energy, public expenditure on environmental protection, and climate-related economic losses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many economies, the publication of gross domestic product (GDP) figures tends to lag actual economic performance. In India, for example, the time lag is currently almost three months. This paper assesses whether real-time gross settlement (RTGS) data can be used to 'nowcast' Indian GDP. As RTGS data are available to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on an almost daily basis, such data can be used to construct timely GDP forecasts. This paper reports some initial results on using payments systems data to enhance GDP forecasts. The paper shows that GDP and RTGS are co-integrated, and using an ARIMA-type model demonstrates that RTGS volume data have considerable predictive ability for real GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tourism is one of the sectors of the economy most affected by the situation caused by the spread of COVID-19. For the re-growth of international tourism competitiveness, it is important to know the main determinants affecting tourism performance, specifically international tourism inbound receipts (ITIR). This paper aims to find out whether a country's ITIR is determined by travel and tourism gross domestic product (GDP) and travel and tourism competitiveness measured by the Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index (TTCI). The data was obtained from the Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report from 2019. The proposed new model for 125 countries is specific because we consider conditional quantiles of the dependent variable. The results of a quantile regression determined that individual percentiles of the ITIR are more affected by travel and tourism GDP and TTCI than other percentiles of the ITIR, which was then reflected in the changes of regression coefficients. Considering the findings of this paper, it is possible to implement a competitive destination policy not only for the specific geographical cluster, as in the existing literature, but also for groups of countries created according to the affiliation to selected quantiles. This study significantly contributes to the theory and empirical evidence of the influence of tourism competitiveness when modeling tourism performance. Moreover, even though existing studies encourage quantile regression usage in tourism research, this paper appears to be original in determining the variables entering the analysis (ITIR, TTCI, travel, and tourism GDP). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of the paper is to assess the resilience of UK's economy towards two economic shocks: the Covid-19 pandemic that hit the global economy in Q4 2019, in years 2020, 2021 and 2022 and the Brexit following the withdrawal of UK from the European Union on 31 January 2020. To assess the resilience of UK's economy, two sets of forecasts are generated: forecasts using historical data including the pandemic and the Brexit (from Q1 1998 to Q4 2021) and not including the pandemic and the Brexit (from Q1 1998 to Q3 2019). The computation of the difference of their averages is an indicator of the resilience of the economy during the pandemic, the greater the difference the greater the resilience. Eurozone is used as benchmark. By subtracting the average forecasted 2022- 2050 Eurozone quarterly GDP growth rate (annualized) obtained with the Q1 1998-Q4 2021 data, +2.93%, by the one obtained with the Q1 1998-Q3 2019 data, +1.59%, the difference is +1.33%, whereas with UK the difference is -2.33% [-0.24% - (-2.09%)]. Thus, Eurozone shows a greater resilience (+1.33%) than the UK (-2.33%) based on 2022-2050 forecasts. In addition, the authors pointed out that the average of the 2022-2050 quarterly (annualized) growth rate forecasts of the Eurozone is expected to be +2.93% with the 1998-2021 data whereas it is expected to be only -2.09% forUK The Eurozone economy shows better prospects than the UK economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents the connection between economic development and sport. The objective of the paper is to identify the correlation between income generated by sports and GDP. To confirm this causal relationship the correlation and regression method has been applied. The object of analysis is the impact of the income of English clubs and two Spanish clubs Barcelona and Real Madrid on the GDP of the respective countries, for the last decade. The paper also provides a lot of information on sports developments in the year of the pandemic (2020) The hypothesis is tested and after H1 ≠ 0 it is proved that there is a correlation between the two variables. The regression function for the English and Spanish economies shows that football revenues affect GDP formation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents economic development and the economic structure in the two regions mentioned above. Given the fact that the economic structure is strongly related to the development whether of the region or of the national economy, which is presented with GDP, and it is taken as an indicator of analysis. The purpose of the research in this paper is to identify the economic areas which are carriers of development in the two regions mentioned above, which are one of the most underdeveloped regions of North Macedonia. The paper uses an empirical method - analysis of changes in regional components, which reveals economic sectors that are larger or smaller contributors to GDP in the two regions. The analysis shows that in these regions depressive economic structures dominate. The highest contribution to the formation of GDP in the two regions was made by trade (the best option with allotment effect 4), a sector which has limited accumulative capabilities and as such can't give impetus to economic development. The worst option sector in both regions is that of agriculture, in Polog it marks the aloof effect1 and in the southwest the aloof effect 2. The results of the empirical analysis show that in these regions government policies should be much more active with state instruments to help the economic structure to improve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the trade-off between economics and ethics applying them to "lockdowns" as a policy measure to counter the Covid-19-pandemic. This is an academic research on the nature and mechanism of trade-offs in so far as they apply to decision making. In the course of the line of inquiry pursued here, several different ways of trading off are assessed. In applying them to the pandemics, each yield a different answer to the adequacy of lockdowns as measures against the pandemic. The economic trade-off found "optimalcy" conditions, the utilitarian-ethical trade-off failed to do so revealing that there is a problem using "scientific evidence" as basis for such a trade-off. The value-ethical trade-off found out that lockdowns do not pass the test of proportionality within the usual constitutional framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses how Cyprus' economy coped with the Covid-19 pandemic by generating two series of forecasts with wavelet analysis: forecasts using data including the pandemic (from Q4 1997 to Q2 2022) and not including the pandemic (from Q4 1997 to Q3 2019). The difference of their averages is an indicator of the resilience of the economy during the pandemic, the greater the difference, the more resilient the economy. Eurozone and Germany are used as benchmarks: subtracting the Q3 2022 to Q4 2050 GDP growth rate (quarterly and annualized) average forecast of Cyprus obtained with the Q4 1997-Q2 2022 data, +1.62%, by the one obtained with the Q4 1997-Q3 2019 data, +1.47%, the difference is +0.15% whereas with Eurozone the difference is +0.11%, [+0.68% - (+0.57%)] and with Germany the difference is -0.12% [+0.89% - (+1.01%)]. Thus, Cyprus' economy shows a slightly higher resilience (+0.15%) than the Eurozone's (+0.11%) based on Q3 2022-Q4 2050 forecasts and a stronger resilience than Germany's (-0.12%). Moreover, the average of the Q3 2022-Q4 2050 quarterly (annualized) growth rate forecasts of Cyprus is expected to be +1.62% with the Q4 1997-Q2 2022 data whereas it is expected to be only +0.68% for the Eurozone and +0.89% for Germany. Cyprus' economy shows better prospects than the Eurozone's and Germany's economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main purpose of this paper is to address and research interest rates and how they affect employment or job creation. Hence, what are the favourable interest rates for job creation, taking into account that in Kosovo the banking operation is that of commercial banks, whether local or foreign. Through this paper are researched the changes that have occurred in recent years with fiscal policies in our country, as a country in transition. Its basic objective includes the impact of interest rates on business development in Kosovo, as well as the impact of interest rates on the social and economic development of Kosovo. Are credit policies in Kosovo favourable for the development of local and foreign businesses operating in the country? In the beginnings of banking operations in Kosovo, interest rates were very high. In 2010, for instance, interest rates were brought to the value of 13.97%, while in 2016 they reach the value of 7.22%. Regarding the issue of the unemployment rate in Kosovo, during the period 2001 - 2015, it has decreased by 42.38%, calculating that in 2001 it was 57.1%, while in 2015 it reached 32.9%, respectively the annual average of the unemployment rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates the Granger-causal relationship between government spending (G) and income (Y) for Saudi Arabia for which G is the main driver of economic growth. Previous studies investigated two-way causality, from G to Y (Keynesian) and from Y to G (Wagnerian). This paper investigates a new explanation (post-Keynesian) that links Y to G through banks' loan-making and deposit-creation. The latter is accompanied by an increase in statutory reserves (R). The findings are consistent with the post-Keynesian theory (from Y to R, and to G). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past few years, Online Education has been an interesting research topic. Many educationists are working on the future and the scope of online education. The COVID-19 outbreak has become a major source of imparting knowledge among children about their health and safety. While talking about EdTech, it should be kept in mind that internet connectivity and the lecturer play an important role in defining the effectiveness of online education. The paper mainly focuses on online education as the new emerging business in the country. The paper also talks about its growing role and increasing contribution to GDP in reference to the COVID-19 pandemic. Earlier, there was less awareness and trend of online learning; however, it is interesting to know that the outbreak of the pandemic has highlighted the importance of online learning, and it has emerged as a rare business that has shown an upward trend in the crisis. Online learning has emerged as an affordable, convenient and time-efficient method of gaining knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Local economy should be an important determinant of commercial real estate (CRE) performance. This paper empirically examines how the economic conditions of a metropolitan area drive the performance of CRE in the area. This paper shows that areas with better economic conditions provide a higher total return on commercial properties than those with worse economic conditions. Further analysis indicates that both the income return and capital appreciation of CRE are significantly affected by the size of the economy (proxied as GDP level), while the capital return (but not income return) is significantly affected by the growth of the economy (proxied as GDP growth). The results are largely consistent in the Fama–MacBeth regression, the portfolio analysis, and the propensity score matching model, providing solid evidence on the important effects of local economy on CRE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The so-called 'Oxford Study' by Flyvbjerg et al shows Olympic cost overrun of 170-750% with a substantial risk of a further cost overrun above this range in the future. The aim of this paper is to re-analyse the results by using a method in accordance with the international convention of comparing across time and geographies. The dataset used has abundantly more governmental data than in the Oxford Study. The results of the Oxford Study for the period of 2000–2016 could not be replicated. It is argued why the statistical analysis and their data reliability are misleading, thus leading to a discovery of six typical misperceptions. In contrast to those authors, this paper shows cost overruns (Olympics 2000–2014) for direct non-OCOG investments in the range of 13–178%. Further, it shows that the costs of the Olympic Games represent less than 0.28% of the GDP; hence, it is clear that the Games cannot cause a severe national economic crisis. This paper provides a discussion on the underlying assumptions of the Oxford study, thus providing valuable insights for politicians who intend to submit an Olympic bid, and contextualises cost overruns caused by fixed deadlines and long planning horizons. I disagree with the claim by Flyvbjerg et al. that hosts give a blank cheque to the IOC and I contend that demands and a tight coupling are fixed in the Host City Contract, thus negating the blank cheque assertion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused major economic imbalances and impeded economic activity in all Western Balkan (WB) countries. This paper analyzes the strength of economic impact of the ongoing health crisis on key macroeconomic variables (GDP, public debt, fiscal balance, and unemployment) in the WB countries. In addition, the paper points out the main challenges that the economies of these countries will face in the years to come. The analysis has shown that the crisis slowed down the WB economies, but its intensity differed among the observed countries. The main economic challenges in the coming period relate to the further course and duration of the pandemic. Due to the great level of uncertainty, more detailed analysis of the crisis' impact on the economic potential will be possible only after the end of the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the first reconstruction of the value-added in Italy during the Liberal Age at the provincial level for four benchmark years: 1871, 1881, 1901 and 1911. Figures are provided for agriculture, industry, and services, for all 69 Italian provinces. The exercise is performed using an implementation of the Geary-Stark framework. Additionally, this paper also addresses the accounting problem in the textile workforce known as the «textile bias». The results provide an extensive look into the economy of each province. They show that the Industrial Triangle constituted by the provinces of Genoa, Milan and Turin was the cornerstone of the entire economy, fostering growth in the surrounding provinces. However, the reconstruction shows a large heterogeneity amongst provinces even within each macro-area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the impacts of alternative energy use, urbanization, GDP, agriculture, ICT development, and FDI on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the 14 leading CO2-emitting countries in Asia. This research comprises various econometric techniques, including MMQR, FMOLS, DOLS, and Driscoll–Kraay, to extend the data analysis from 1996 to 2020. The findings provide significant support for an inverted U-shaped link between economic expansion and environmental deterioration, known as the environmental Kuznets curve. Moreover, this paper verifies that the GDP square, renewable energy use, and agriculture are shown to help to decrease pollution, as indicated by the research findings. On the contrary, urbanization and the GDP are demonstrated to be variables that contribute to carbon emissions. Furthermore, the panel quantile regression models validate that the impacts of each explanatory variable on CO2 emissions vary across various quantiles. Finally, this analysis provides valuable suggestions to scholars, environmentalists, politicians, and authorities for identifying and mitigating the main cause of emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Against the backdrop of the current political developments in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, such as Ukraine, Poland, and Romania, the question arises as to the role played by economic transformation and the resulting innovation linkages in these countries over the last 20 years. The main purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of economic and institutional dimensions on the development of CEE countries, explicitly distinguishing between European Union (EU) members and non‐members, and thus reflecting the differences in institutions and path dependency. Furthermore, the paper contrasts the performance of CEE countries with that of Western European countries. To achieve these objectives, the impact of factors such as innovation, institutions, and political practices on the economic development of 37 European countries from 2000 until 2020 is followed using fixed effects regression and Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. The results of the analysis show the importance of institutional factors such as low levels of corruption, political freedoms, and intellectual property. The effect of institutional variables was particularly pronounced in the case of non‐EU countries, which indicates the particular importance of the development of stable institutions for achieving higher levels of economic development for this category of countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a lack of understanding of the fisheries production impact on the national economy, as the contribution of the industry to the Turkish economy has not been adequately reflected in the official Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics and economic research. Therefore, this paper aims to reveal the industry's contribution to Türkiye's economic growth. We analysed the effect of fisheries production on economic growth by employing the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model from 1990-2019. The results showed a positive relationship between fisheries production and economic growth in the long-term. We hope this paper will support the policy-makers and development agencies in their efforts to reshape the industry in Türkiye towards an increased role in economic development in a sustainable manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates whether global uncertainty predicts economic growth rates using a global sample of 136 countries. We use the panel regression model and find strong evidence that global uncertainty negatively predicts the economic growth rate. Further, the negative impact of global uncertainty on economic growth rates is amplified during pandemic periods versus non-pandemic periods. Our main findings hold after a range of robustness tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper proposes an insight into the relation existing between economic development and resource consumption and the associated implications and challenges for forested areas in Romania. In accordance with this purpose, the methods used are both qualitative and quantitative by using a relevant literature review, including international and national reports. In the 1950s and 1960s, Simon Kuznets introduced to modern economic theory the idea that there are certain market forces directly correlated with economic development. After almost two decades of a market economy in Romania, we are witnessing a relative decoupling process between economic development and social inequality. Moreover, the country strives to make the transition to a circular economy by involving all relevant stakeholders and by attracting the necessary financial support. Sustainable development offers the perspective of reaching an equilibrium between economic, social, and environmental aspects. Finding the right tools to assess multiple impacts has always been challenging as regards decoupling the economic development from natural resource consumption. Although there are multiple interpretations of the outcomes of a decoupling process, this paper aims at assessing the evolution of forested areas through econometric research using the Environmental curve of Simon Kuznets. As our main results, we have observed a decoupling process in the GDP growth that will not lead to a decrease in wooded areas in our country, mainly due to rural–urban migration, shifts in consumption patterns (from firewood toward natural gases, etc.) and improvement in the legislative framework in the case of forestry products. Among the weaknesses of the model used are the limited data availability and the reduced number of observations with annual frequency (data were taken only for 22 years), the use of a square pattern instead of a cubic one (it is possible for the results to differ and consequently another form of this curve, either N or N-inverted) or the use of data with a low accuracy related to the total forest areas in Romania. Among the conclusions of the papers, the decoupling process is not a single action process. Our research focused on forest area and the need to connect it with other policy actions related to mainstreaming sustainability, promoting a circular economy or bioeconomy, or developing innovative public policies and instruments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper has comparatively analyzed the role of tourism in the economic growth of Bulgaria and Romania, using the specific system of indicators: GDP, employment, multiplicator effect, efficiency, investments, visitor exports, and competitiveness. The methodology was based on the formulas provided by literature at present and the data were collected from UNWTO Data Base. Bulgaria and Romania are important tourism destinations grace to their rich cultural and historical heritage, beautiful landscapes, landmarks, tourism forms, service quality and hospitality. Bulgaria has more visitors and receipts than Romania, but in absolute value, tourism has a higher contribution to GDP in Romania, while in relative value, 11.5% of GDP is produced by tourism and in Romania just 5.3%. Tourism supports employment 3.7 times better in Romania than in Bulgaria regarding the number of jobs. The multiplicator effect is almost similar in the both countries, proving that tourism growth stimulated the development of other economic sectors. Tourism increases labor productivity in the economy of the both countries, but 1.4 times more in Bulgaria. Visitor exports in Bulgaria are higher than in Romania, while investments in tourism are 4.5 higher in Romania than in Bulgaria. Tourism competitiveness is low in the both countries, but Bulgaria comes on a lower position than Romania in the international market. As a conclusion, both Bulgaria and Romania has to intensify the efforts to sustain tourism growth, its contribution to the development of the economy and become a more competitive sector. Bulgaria and Romania have to better evaluate all their resources, to diversify their offers, to improve service quality and increase tourism performance. Only in this way, a new tourism strategy could attract more visitors and increase the role of tourism in the economy and improve the image of each country in Europe and in the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to promote ecological sustainability, the issue of sulphur dioxide emissions is of increasing interest to researchers. Majority of the current research, however, focuses on the relationship between sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions, foreign direct investment (FDI), and trade, as well as the effects of trade on SO2 emissions, thus rarely takes it into account that the greater impact of the institutional environment and economic growth on SO2 emissions. Using the 2008–2017 provincial panel data, this paper uses a fixed effects model to empirically test the institutional environment and economic growth of sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions. The results show that GDP growth and SO2 emissions had an inverted "U"-shaped relationship. The institutional environment and the higher level of government intervention in the region led to SO2 emissions decreasing significantly, and the institutional environment and the level of government intervention on economic growth and SO2 emissions form a negative regulatory role. In this paper, environmental governance research, specified by the regional environmental governance, and government environmental performance audit policy provide empirical evidence, thus promoting sustainable ecological and environmental development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The scientific impact and rankings of individual persons, institutions, or nations are very important for their international recognition and prestige. At the same time, they are also vital for the governments, businesses and trusts which must decide scientific priorities and funding. In this paper we show that the ranking of a country changes significantly when we take into consideration its scientific personnel that has migrated abroad (i.e., brain-drain). Given that immigrant scientists are considered recoverable assets who can always return home, we believe that governments, businesses and trusts should anticipate immigrant scholars when deciding their scientific priorities, optimizing their research allocations, re-orienting their research support, or augmenting research productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Business Studies / Poslovne Studje is the property of Business Studies / Poslovne Studje and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Transformations in Business & Economics is the property of Vilnius University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper examines the causal relationship between human capital and economic factors in BRICS countries using a panel vector autoregressive model and data from 1997 to 2020. The economic factors considered include foreign direct investment (FDI), imports, exports, and gross domestic product (GDP). The study conducts a comparative analysis of Brazil, India, China, Russia, and South Africa by adopting a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The findings indicate a bidirectional causality between human capital and FDI in China, while a unidirectional causality from FDI to human capital is observed in Brazil. Moreover, a unidirectional causality exists from human capital to GDP in Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa. Additionally, a unidirectional causality is found from human capital to imports and exports in South Africa. Overall, the results suggest the pivotal role of human capital in achieving sustainable economic development in BRICS countries. Policymakers should ensure sustained investment in human capital, focusing on economic growth, FDI, and international trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the long‐term effects of population and GDP changes requires a multisectoral and regional understanding of the coupled human‐Earth system, as the long‐term evolution of this coupled system is influenced by human decisions and the Earth system. This study investigates the impact of compounding economic and population growth uncertainties on long‐term multisectoral outcomes. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to explore the influence of compounding and feedback between future GDP and population growth on four key sectors: final energy consumption, water withdrawal, staple food prices, and CO2 emissions. The results show that uncertainties in GDP and population compound, resulting in a magnification of tail risks for outcomes across sectors and regions. Compounding uncertainties significantly impact metrics such as CO2 emissions and final energy consumption, particularly at the upper tail at both global and regional levels. However, the impact of staple food prices and water withdrawal depends on regional factors. Additionally, an alternative low‐carbon transition scenario could compound uncertainties and increase tail risk, particularly in staple food prices, highlighting the influence of emergent constraints on land availability and food‐energy competition for land use. The findings underscore the importance of considering and adequately accounting for compounding uncertainties in key drivers of multisectoral systems to enhance our comprehensive understanding of the complex nature of multisectoral systems. The paper provides valuable insights into the potential implications of compounding uncertainties. Plain Language Summary: Understanding how future population and economic growth changes could impact our energy, water, food, and environment requires looking across multiple sectors and regions. This is because these systems are all connected. For example, increasing population drives higher food demand but requires more energy and water to grow food. At the same time, reducing greenhouse gas emissions from energy through increased biofuel consumption can compete with food production for land resources. This study explored how uncertainties in future population and GDP growth could compound and interact to affect future energy use, water withdrawal, staple food prices, and carbon dioxide emissions. Using a model that connects all these systems, the study found that combined uncertainties in population and GDP lead to more significant risks of extreme outcomes than individually looking at those uncertainties. There are substantial regional differences in future outcomes, like higher uncertainty in food prices for India and West Africa compared to other regions. We highlight the need to consider multisector and multisystem interactions between uncertainties across different regions. Accounting for these compounding uncertainties provides valuable insights into potential risks, like higher extreme projections for food prices or water use. These insights are essential for long‐term planning in our connected human‐Earth system. Key Points: Long‐term implications of population and GDP changes on the coupled human‐Earth system focusing on multisectoral and regional understandingUncertainties in GDP and population growth can compound, resulting in more extreme outcomes for multisectoral systemsCompounding uncertainties differ by region and metrics; staple food prices and water withdrawal show significant regional variability [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether a country's innovative capacity increases when the business sector invests more in research and development. The empirical investigation covers Serbia and its three neighboring countries in the European Union - Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria - for the period from 2011 to 2021. The results indicate that an increase in investment by the business sector at the current level of GDP influences the increase in innovation in the case of Serbia, Hungary, and Bulgaria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research proposes that economic policy uncertainty (EPU) leads to exchange rate fluctuations. Given that African countries experience higher levels of uncertainty in developed/emerging markets, we examine the extent to which domestic and foreign EPU affect exchange rates for a panel of 12 ECOWAS countries covering the period 1996–2018. In order to account for non-stationarity, cross-sectional dependence, and heterogeneity, the paper employs the dynamic heterogeneous panel approach. The ECOWAS has a dual currency arrangement ranging from a common currency union (CFA) to floating exchange rates (Non-CFA). To account for this, this study splits the sample data into CFA and Non-CFA areas. In addition, this study considers the role of the global financial crisis in the exchange rate-EPU nexus. Our results show that domestic EPU has a positive effect on exchange rates in the long run for Non-CFA areas. Different from the existing literature, our results suggest that domestic EPU does not explain exchange rate fluctuations in the short run. For all countries, foreign EPU leads to appreciation in the long run and depreciation in the short run. Interestingly, foreign EPU has a more dominant effect on exchange rate fluctuations in the selected countries than domestic EPU. This may reflect the weak institutional framework in these countries, which allows external fluctuations to have a greater impact. Moreover, this could be attributed to the increase in foreign capital flows during the sample period. Thus, these countries must develop effective policies to effectively absorb these external shocks. Results are robust to different proxies of EPU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines Nordic economic convergence from the sixteenth to twentieth century respective of the economic leaders, in effect the UK before 1914 and USA thereafter. The paper uses a novel approach of combining the analysis of both GDP and wages. The examination of real GDP per capita suggests that there was a catch-up process in play, both with the economic leaders and among the Nordic states, from the early nineteenth century onwards. However, the examination of the adjusted silver wages suggests convergence among the Nordic economies by the end of the eighteenth century. Therefore, we argue, no single Nordic Model emerged from these development patterns, even though the Nordic states today do have striking similarities. Furthermore, they diverged from the West European growth path until the twentieth century, thus they were a part of the Little Divergence at Europe's other peripheries. The world wars and other crises delayed the full impacts of the convergence process until the latter part of the twentieth century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of New Economist / Novi Ekonomist is the property of University of East Sarajevo and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Proceedings of the Faculty of Economics in East Sarajevo / Zbornik Radova Ekonomskog Fakulteta u Istočnom Sarajevu is the property of University of East Sarajevo and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The aim of this paper is to diagnose the cause-and-effect relationships between reinvestment of earnings (RoE) and other components of FDI inflows and GDP in Poland in the years of 2004–2019, using the VECM model**. Changes in the structure of FDI inflows in Poland are in line with the stages of the FDI life cycle. The increase in the share of RoE in the structure of these investments is also accompanied by an increase in the impact and the degree of explanation of changes in GDP. Studies confirmed that changes in the structure of FDI in Poland was adequate to the theoretical cycle of FDI life. The increase in the share of RoE in the structure of FDI inflows is accompanied by a decrease in equities. The VECM model, impulse response function and decomposition analysis confirmed that among FDI components mainly equities, and next, RoE have large participation in the degree of explanation of GDP. In the short-term, mainly equity has the most important impact on GDP, and additionally, RoE. In the long-time, the importance of equity decreases, while increases the impact of RoE, and also, debt instruments. The increase in the share of RoE in the structure of FDI inflows accompanied by the increase in the impact of these investments on GDP changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper estimates dynamic effects of pandemics on GDP per capita with local projections, controlling for the effects of wars and weather conditions, using a novel dataset that covers 33 countries and stretches back to the thirteenth century. On average, pandemics are found to have prolonged and highly statistically significant effects on GDP per capita—a pandemic killing 1% of the population tends to increase GDP per capita by approx. 0.3% after about 20 years. The study of a more detailed dataset available for the UK reveals that this results mainly from an increase in per capita land and a disproportionate impact of pandemics on low-productivity workers, while monetary expansion, institutional change and innovation could also play some role. At the same time, the effects of pandemics are found to vary with scale and across time and countries, with positive effects present following the Black Death and the Spanish flu pandemics, especially in Northern Europe. This suggests that only the largest and most unexpected pandemics have a positive impact on income. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper analyzes the economic consequences of the US–China trade war on economics in ASEAN-4. The analysis uses the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. The simulation scenarios depicted short-run potential effects of manufacturing protection with appropriate retaliation response from China. The results showed escalation of trade wars has an impact on various countries, that is on exports, investment and domestic-sector growth. The US and China trade war has resulted in shifts in US imports by country of origin, Indonesia's GDP and investments have increased, but are still relatively lower compared to other ASEAN-4 countries (Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]