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In this paper we develop further the satellite radiothermovision methods for analyzing the evolution of tropical cyclones. The complicated case of Goni and Atsani interacting typhoons is considered. It has been shown that, although their interaction does not explicitly influence the features of the typhoon trajectories, indications of the formation of complex advective fluxes in the lower troposphere can be revealed from both a qualitative analysis of miscellaneous satellite data and a quantitative estimation of latent heat advection. At the same time, in contrast to the previous works, we had to introduce the integration contours of a complex form (differing from a circular one) into the analysis, so that the energy balance of the typhoon system is correctly described. In a general way, defining such contours is a separate problem whose solution is probably related to the invocation of a large volume of additional satellite information. Due to the peculiarity of the considered case of Goni and Atsani twin typhoons, we demonstrated the effectiveness of a simplified approach that uses a composite contour formed by overlapping two circular ones. Generally, as in the cases previously considered, we found the interrelation between the intensification and dissipation of typhoons (tropical cyclones) and the modes of convergent and divergent advection of latent heat with amplitudes sufficient to support the total power of the system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to provide a new blocking definition with applicability to observations and model simulations. An updated review of previous blocking detection indices is provided and some of their implications and caveats discussed. A novel blocking index is proposed by reconciling two traditional approaches based on anomaly and absolute flows. Blocks are considered from a complementary perspective as a signature in the anomalous height field capable of reversing the meridional jet-based height gradient in the total flow. The method succeeds in identifying 2-D persistent anomalies associated to a weather regime in the total flow with blockage of the westerlies. The new index accounts for the duration, intensity, extension, propagation, and spatial structure of a blocking event. In spite of its increased complexity, the detection efficiency of the method is improved without hampering the computational time. Furthermore, some misleading identification problems and artificial assumptions resulting from previous single blocking indices are avoided with the new approach. The characteristics of blocking for 40 years of reanalysis (1950-1989) over the Northern Hemisphere are described from the perspective of the new definition and compared to those resulting from two standard blocking indices and different critical thresholds. As compared to single approaches, the novel index shows a better agreement with reported proxies of blocking activity, namely climatological regions of simultaneous wave amplification and maximum band-pass filtered height standard deviation. An additional asset of the method is its adaptability to different data sets. As critical thresholds are specific of the data set employed, the method is useful for observations and model simulations of different resolutions, temporal lengths and time variant basic states, optimizing its value as a tool for model validation. Special attention has been paid on the devise of an objective scheme easily applicable to General Circulation Models where observational thresholds may be unsuitable due to the presence of model bias. Part II of this study deals with a specific implementation of this novel method to simulations of the ECHO-G global climate model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the physical processes controlling how synoptic midlatitude temperature variability near the surface changes with climate. Because synoptic temperature variability is primarily generated by advection, it can be related to mean potential temperature gradients and mixing lengths near the surface. Scaling arguments show that the reduction of meridional potential temperature gradients that accompanies polar amplification of global warming leads to a reduction of the synoptic temperature variance near the surface. This is confirmed in simulations of a wide range of climates with an idealized GCM. In comprehensive climate simulations (CMIP5), Arctic amplification of global warming similarly entails a large-scale reduction of the near-surface temperature variance in Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, especially in winter. The probability density functions of synoptic near-surface temperature variations in midlatitudes are statistically indistinguishable from Gaussian, both in reanalysis data and in a range of climates simulated with idealized and comprehensive GCMs. This indicates that changes in mean values and variances suffice to account for changes even in extreme synoptic temperature variations. Taken together, the results indicate that Arctic amplification of global warming leads to even less frequent cold outbreaks in Northern Hemisphere winter than a shift toward a warmer mean climate implies by itself. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a set of high-resolution global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations focusing on the model's ability to represent tropical storms and their statistics. We find that the model produces storms of hurricane strength with realistic dynamical features. We also find that tropical storm statistics are reasonable, both globally and in the north Atlantic, when compared to recent observations. The sensitivity of simulated tropical storm statistics to increases in sea surface temperature (SST) is also investigated, revealing that a credible late 21st century SST increase produced increases in simulated tropical storm numbers and intensities in all ocean basins. While this paper supports previous high-resolution model and theoretical findings that the frequency of very intense storms will increase in a warmer climate, it differs notably from previous medium and high-resolution model studies that show a global reduction in total tropical storm frequency. However, we are quick to point out that this particular model finding remains speculative due to a lack of radiative forcing changes in our time-slice experiments as well as a focus on the Northern hemisphere tropical storm seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the availability of hemispheric gridded data sets from observations, analysis and global climate models, objective cyclone identification methods were developed and applied to these data sets. Due to the large amount of investigation methods combined with the variety of different datasets, a multitude of results exist, not only for the recent climate period but also for the next century, assuming anthropogenic changed conditions. Different thresholds, different physical quantities, and considerations of different atmospheric vertical levels add to a picture that is difficult to combine into a common view of cyclones, their variability and trends, in the real world and in GCM studies. Thus, this paper will give a comprehensive review of the actual knowledge on climatologies of mid-latitude cyclones for the Northern and Southern Hemisphere for the present climate and for its possible changes under anthropogenic climate conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In boreal summer, circumglobal Rossby waves can promote stagnating weather systems that favor extreme events like heat waves or droughts. Recent work showed that amplified Rossby wavenumber 5 and 7 show phase-locking behavior which can trigger simultaneous warm anomalies in different breadbasket regions in the Northern Hemisphere. These types of wave patterns thus pose a potential threat to human health and ecosystems. The representation of such persistent wave events in summer and their surface anomalies in general circulation models (GCMs) has not been systematically analyzed. Here we validate the representation of wavenumbers 1–10 in three state-of-the-art global climate models (EC-Earth, CESM, and MIROC), quantify their biases, and provide insights into the underlying physical reasons for the biases. To do so, the ExtremeX experiments output data were used, consisting of (1) historic simulations with a freely running atmosphere with prescribed ocean and experiments that additionally (2) nudge towards the observed upper-level horizontal winds, (3) prescribe soil moisture conditions, or (4) do both. The experiments are used to trace the sources of the model biases to either the large-scale atmospheric circulation or surface feedback processes. Focusing on wave 5 and wave 7, we show that while the wave's position and magnitude are generally well represented during high-amplitude (> 1.5 SD) episodes, the associated surface anomalies are substantially underestimated. Near-surface temperature, precipitation and mean sea level pressure are typically underestimated by a factor of 1.5 in terms of normalized standard deviations. The correlations and normalized standard deviations for surface anomalies do not improve if the soil moisture is prescribed. However, the surface biases are almost entirely removed when the upper-level atmospheric circulation is nudged. When both prescribing soil moisture and nudging the upper-level atmosphere, then the surface biases remain quite similar to the experiment with a nudged atmosphere only. We conclude that the near-surface biases in temperature and precipitation are in the first place related to biases in the upper-level circulation. Thus, relatively small biases in the models' representation of the upper-level waves can strongly affect associated temperature and precipitation anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extratropical meridional energy transport in the atmosphere is fundamentally intermittent in nature, having extremes large enough to affect the net seasonal transport. Here, we investigate how these extreme transports are associated with the dynamics of the atmosphere at multiple spatial scales, from planetary to synoptic. We use the ERA5 reanalysis data to perform a wavenumber decomposition of meridional energy transport in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes during winter and summer. We then relate extreme transport events to atmospheric circulation anomalies and dominant weather regimes, identified by clustering 500 hPa geopotential height fields. In general, planetary-scale waves determine the strength and meridional position of the synoptic-scale baroclinic activity with their phase and amplitude, but important differences emerge between seasons. During winter, large wavenumbers (k = 2–3) are key drivers of the meridional-energy-transport extremes, and planetary- and synoptic-scale transport extremes virtually never co-occur. In summer, extremes are associated with higher wavenumbers (k = 4–6), identified as synoptic-scale motions. We link these waves and the transport extremes to recent results on exceptionally strong and persistent co-occurring summertime heat waves across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. We show that the weather regime structures associated with these heat wave events are typical for extremely large poleward-energy-transport events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

previously defined automatic method is applied to reanalysis and present-day (1950-1989) forced simulations of the ECHO-G model in order to assess its performance in reproducing atmospheric blocking in the Northern Hemisphere. Unlike previous methodologies, critical parameters and thresholds to estimate blocking occurrence in the model are not calibrated with an observed reference, but objectively derived from the simulated climatology. The choice of model dependent parameters allows for an objective definition of blocking and corrects for some intrinsic model bias, the difference between model and observed thresholds providing a measure of systematic errors in the model. The model captures reasonably the main blocking features (location, amplitude, annual cycle and persistence) found in observations, but reveals a relative southward shift of Eurasian blocks and an overall underestimation of blocking activity, especially over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Blocking underestimation mostly arises from the model inability to generate long persistent blocks with the observed frequency. This error is mainly attributed to a bias in the basic state. The bias pattern consists of excessive zonal winds over the Euro-Atlantic sector and a southward shift at the exit zone of the jet stream extending into in the Eurasian continent, that are more prominent in cold and warm seasons and account for much of Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian blocking errors, respectively. It is shown that other widely used blocking indices or empirical observational thresholds may not give a proper account of the lack of realism in the model as compared with the proposed method. This suggests that in addition to blocking changes that could be ascribed to natural variability processes or climate change signals in the simulated climate, attention should be paid to significant departures in the diagnosis of phenomena that can also arise from an inappropriate adaptation of detection methods to the climate of the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we present five-year (2000–2004) climatological statistics of Northern Hemisphere spectral white-sky albedo for the 16 International Geosphere–Biosphere Program (IGBP) ecosystem classes when accompanied by the presence of snow on the ground. These statistics are obtained using validated, high quality Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface albedo (MOD43B3) data flagged as snow in the associated Quality Assurance (QA) fields. Near Real-Time Ice and Snow Extent (NISE) data are used as an additional discriminator of snow extent. Statistics are provided for the first seven MODIS bands, ranging from 0.47 to 2.1 μm, and for three broadbands, 0.3–0.7, 0.3–5.0 and 0.7–5.0 μm. The statistics demonstrate that each ecosystem classification has a discernible spectral albedo signature when accompanied by snow on the ground. This indicates that winter canopy and the underlying surface radiative properties are impacted by the presence of snow overlying these surfaces. For example, the 0.47 μm albedo of winter snow-free evergreen needleleaf forests increases from 0.03 to 0.36 in the presence of snow, compared to an increase of 0.04 to 0.76 for croplands. In general, the albedo of snow-covered ecosystems with some winter canopy has lower albedos than ecosystems with little to no winter canopy; for example the 0.47 μm albedo of snow-covered mixed forests is 0.39 compared to 0.87 for barren/deserts and 0.95 for permanent snow. These statistics can be used within land surface models in a stand-alone mode, to prescribe albedo values in atmospheric General Circulation Models (GCMs), or be incorporated into research and operational projects. They are intended to provide researchers with representative spectral albedo values of IGBP ecosystems in the presence of snow that are derived from validated satellite data. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The aim of this study is to investigate if the representation of Northern Hemisphere blocking is sensitive to resolution in current-generation atmospheric global circulation models (AGCMs). An evaluation is conducted of how well atmospheric blocking is represented in four AGCMs whose horizontal resolution is increased from a grid spacing of more than 100 km to about 25 km. It is shown that Euro-Atlantic blocking is simulated overall more credibly at higher resolution (i.e., in better agreement with a 50-yr reference blocking climatology created from the reanalyses ERA-40 and ERA-Interim). The improvement seen with resolution depends on the season and to some extent on the model considered. Euro-Atlantic blocking is simulated more realistically at higher resolution in winter spring and autumn and robustly so across the model ensemble. The improvement in spring is larger than that in winter and autumn. Summer blocking is found to be better simulated at higher resolution by one model only, with little change seen in the other three models. The representation of Pacific blocking is not found to systematically depend on resolution. Despite the improvements seen with resolution, the 25-km models still exhibit large biases in Euro-Atlantic blocking. For example, three of the four 25-km models underestimate winter northern European blocking frequency by about one-third. The resolution sensitivity and biases in the simulated blocking are shown to be in part associated with the mean-state biases in the models' midlatitude circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking is a primary weather and climate system that accompanies extreme cold spells and heat waves. This study assesses effects of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the largest continental mountain belt, on the blocking frequency (BF) and amplitude (BA) with progressive TP uplift experiments from 0 to 100 % using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The TP uplift increases the annual-mean BF by 3 and 21 % over the Pacific and Atlantic basins, respectively. A particular focus is placed on the seasonally distinct mechanism in the effects of TP uplift on the boreal winter and summer blockings. During winter, the TP uplift increases the BF over the active centers of both ocean basins via amplifying the eddy kinetic energy of stationary waves. On the other hand, in summer, the TP uplift tends to shift the location of BF northward due to notable poleward displacement of the jet stream and transient eddy activities, particularly over the Atlantic. Compared to the considerable BF increase in both seasons, the amplification of BA due to the TP uplift is much stronger in winter than in summer, reaffirming the seasonally varying TP effect on the blocking. Further analyses reveal that in summer, the TP uplift modulates more effectively the jet displacement than its strength, leading more linear northward shift of jet and BF, especially over the Atlantic. This study will contribute to advances in simulation and prediction of atmospheric blocking events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The multimodel ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 ( CMIP5) synthesizes the latest research in global climate modeling. The freshwater system on land, particularly runoff, has so far been of relatively low priority in global climate models, despite the societal and ecosystem importance of freshwater changes, and the science and policy needs for such model output on drainage basin scales. Here we investigate the implications of CMIP5 multimodel ensemble output data for the freshwater system across a set of drainage basins in the Northern Hemisphere. Results of individual models vary widely, with even ensemble mean results differing greatly from observations and implying unrealistic long-term systematic changes in water storage and level within entire basins. The CMIP5 projections of basin-scale freshwater fluxes differ considerably more from observations and among models for the warm temperate study basins than for the Arctic and cold temperate study basins. In general, the results call for concerted research efforts and model developments for improving the understanding and modeling of the freshwater system and its change drivers. Specifically, more attention to basin-scale water flux analyses should be a priority for climate model development, and an important focus for relevant model-based advice for adaptation to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate, for the first time, the response of the North African summer monsoon to separate precession and obliquity forcings using a high-resolution state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model, EC-Earth. Our aim is to better understand the mechanisms underlying the astronomical forcing of this low-latitude climate system in detail. The North African monsoon is strengthened when northern hemisphere summer insolation is higher, as is the case in the minimum precession and maximum obliquity experiments. In these experiments, the low surface pressure areas over the Sahara are intensified and located farther north, and the meridional pressure gradient is further enhanced by a stronger South Atlantic high pressure area. As a result, the southwesterly monsoon winds are stronger and bring more moisture into the monsoon region from both the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. The monsoon winds, precipitation and convection also extend farther north into North Africa. The precession-induced changes are much larger than those induced by obliquity, but the latter are remarkable because obliquity-induced changes in summer insolation over the tropics are nearly zero. Our results provide a different explanation than previously proposed for mechanisms underlying the precession- and, especially, obliquity-related signals in paleoclimate proxy records of the North African monsoon. The EC-Earth experiments reveal that, instead of higher latitude mechanisms, increased moisture transport from both the northern and southern tropical Atlantic is responsible for the precession and obliquity signals in the North African monsoon. This increased moisture transport results from both increased insolation and an increased tropical insolation gradient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An assessment of six coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) is undertaken in order to evaluate their ability in simulating winter atmospheric blocking highs in the northern hemisphere. The poor representation of atmospheric blocking in climate models is a long-standing problem (e.g. D'Andrea et al. in Clim Dyn 4:385-407, ), and despite considerable effort in model development, there is only a moderate improvement in blocking simulation. A modified version of the Tibaldi and Molteni (in Tellus A 42:343-365, ) blocking index is applied to daily averaged 500 hPa geopotential fields, from the ERA-40 reanalysis and as simulated by the climate models, during the winter periods from 1957 to 1999. The two preferred regions of blocking development, in the Euro-Atlantic and North Pacific, are relatively well captured by most of the models. However, the prominent error in blocking simulations consists of an underestimation of the total frequency of blocking episodes over both regions. A more detailed analysis revealed that this error was due to an insufficient number of medium spells and long-lasting episodes, and a shift in blocking lifetime distributions towards shorter blocks in the Euro-Atlantic sector. In the Pacific, results are more diverse; the models are equally likely to overestimate or underestimate the frequency at different spell lengths. Blocking spatial signatures are relatively well simulated in the Euro-Atlantic sector, while errors in the intensity and geographical location of the blocks emerge in the Pacific. The impact of models' systematic errors on blocking simulation has also been analysed. The time-mean atmospheric circulation biases affect the frequency of blocking episodes, and the maximum event duration in the Euro-Atlantic region, while they sometimes cause geographical mislocations in the Pacific sector. The analysis of the systematic error in time-variability has revealed a negative relationship between the high-frequency variability of the transient eddies in the areas affected by blocking and blocking frequency. The blocking responses to errors in the low-frequency variability are different according to the region considered; the amplitude of the low-frequency variability is positively related to the blocking frequency and persistence in the Euro-Atlantic sector, while no such consistency is observed in the Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The internal variability of the global meridional overturning circulation (GMOC) in long-term integration of the earth system model Community Earth System Models (COSMOS) is examined in this study. Two distinct modes of the GMOC, which are closely linked to the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds (SWW) anomalies, are found to vary on multidecadal and centennial time scales. The dominant mode is characterized by Southern Ocean dynamics: strengthening and poleward shift of the SWW associated with a positive phase of the southern annular mode yield Ekman-induced northward mass transport, including a zonally asymmetric response in the Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and a cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean due to large-scale upwelling. The second mode projects mainly onto the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). It is driven by a combination of SWW variation and buoyancy forcing. Based on the relationship between the two modes together with the wind perturbation experiments, the authors emphasize that the full AMOC response to the SWW change takes several centuries in their model. The sea surface temperature in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes is significantly affected in this mode, showing a large-scale warming. Their results from a mid-Holocene experiment imply that both modes are independent from the climate background conditions in the Holocene. Finally, the authors argue that the natural modes of GMOC are important to understand trends in ocean circulation, with consequences for heat and carbon budgets for past, present, and future climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the chemistry climate model Intermediate General Circulation Model-Fast Stratospheric Ozone Chemistry (IGCM-FASTOC), the authors analyze the response in the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere to idealized thermal forcing imposed at the surface. The forcing is a 2-K temperature anomaly added to the control surface temperature at all grid points within a latitudinal window of 10° or 30°. The bandwise forcing is applied systematically throughout all latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Thermal forcing applied anywhere equatorward of 20°N, or continuously from the equator to 30°N, increases planetary-wave generation in the troposphere and enhances the flux of wave activity propagating vertically into the stratosphere. Consequently, a greater flux of wave activity breaks in the polar vortex, increasing the Brewer-Dobson circulation and leading to a warm anomaly in the polar stratosphere. Ozone concentration increases at high latitudes and decreases at low latitudes. Thermal surface forcing imposed between 30° and 60°N has the reverse effect-decreased planetary-wave generation in the lower troposphere and reduced vertically propagating wave flux entering the stratosphere-and leads to a stronger and colder vortex. Thermal forcing applied poleward of 60°N has little effect on the tropospheric mean state but nonetheless decreases the planetary-scale eddy heat flux from the surface to the tropopause, resulting in a sufficient decrease of the vertical flux of wave activity for the vortex to be anomalously strong and cold. When surface forcing is imposed only poleward of 30°N, ozone concentration decreases at high latitudes but is not affected at low latitudes. Combining the forcing in an equatorial and an extratropical band leads to a response similar to that of the equatorial forcing, demonstrating that the subtropical surface temperature changes determine the sign of the surface-driven response in the vortex. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Northern Hemisphere storm tracks have maximum intensity over the Pacific and Atlantic basins; their intensity is reduced over the continents downstream. Here, simulations with an idealized aquaplanet general circulation model are used to demonstrate that even without continents, storm tracks have a self-determined longitudinal length scale. Their length is controlled primarily by the planetary rotation rate and is similar to that of Earth's storm tracks for Earth's rotation rate. Downstream, storm tracks self-destruct: the downstream eddy kinetic energy is lower than it would be without the zonal asymmetries that cause localized storm tracks. Likely involved in the downstream self-destruction of storm tracks are the energy fluxes associated with them. The zonal asymmetries that cause localized storm tracks enhance the energy transport through the generation of stationary eddies, and this leads to a reduced baroclinicity that persists far downstream of the eddy kinetic energy maxima. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the Earth's orbit lead to changes in the seasonal and meridional distribution of insolation. We quantify the influence of orbitally induced changes on the seasonal temperature cycle in a transient simulation of the last 6000 years - from the mid-Holocene to today - using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) including a land surface model (JSBACH). The seasonal temperature cycle responds directly to the insolation changes almost everywhere. In the Northern Hemisphere, its amplitude decreases according to an increase in winter insolation and a decrease in summer insolation. In the Southern Hemisphere, the opposite is true. Over the Arctic Ocean, decreasing summer insolation leads to an increase in sea-ice cover. The insulating effect of sea ice between the ocean and the atmosphere leads to decreasing heat flux and favors more "continental" conditions over the Arctic Ocean in winter, resulting in strongly decreasing temperatures. Consequently, there are two competing effects: the direct response to insolation changes and a sea-ice insulation effect. The sea-ice insulation effect is stronger, and thus an increase in the amplitude of the seasonal temperature cycle over the Arctic Ocean occurs. This increase is strongest over the Barents Shelf and influences the temperature response over northern Europe. We compare our modeled seasonal temperatures over Europe to paleo reconstructions. We find better agreements in winter temperatures than in summer temperatures and better agreements in northern Europe than in southern Europe, since the model does not reproduce the southern European Holocene summer cooling inferred from the paleo reconstructions. The temperature reconstructions for northern Europe support the notion of the influence of the sea-ice insulation effect on the evolution of the seasonal temperature cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A dry primitive equation model is used to explain how the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the tropical stratosphere can influence the troposphere, even in the absence of tropical convection anomalies and a variable stratospheric polar vortex. QBO momentum anomalies induce a meridional circulation to maintain thermal wind balance. This circulation includes zonal wind anomalies that extend from the equatorial stratosphere into the subtropical troposphere. In the presence of extratropical eddies, the zonal wind anomalies are intensified and extend downward to the surface. The tropospheric response differs qualitatively between integrations in which the subtropical jet is strong and integrations in which the subtropical jet is weak. While fluctuation--dissipation theory provides a guide to predicting the response in some cases, significant nonlinearity in others, particularly those designed to model the midwinter subtropical jet of the North Pacific, prevents its universal application. When the extratropical circulation is made zonally asymmetric, the response to the QBO is greatest in the exit region of the subtropical jet. The dry model is able to simulate much of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime tropospheric response to the QBO observed in reanalysis datasets and in long time integrations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The steady-state extratropical atmospheric response to thermal forcing is investigated in a simple atmospheric general circulation model. The thermal forcings qualitatively mimic three key aspects of anthropogenic climate change: warming in the tropical troposphere, cooling in the polar stratosphere, and warming at the polar surface. The principal novel findings are the following: 1) Warming in the tropical troposphere drives two robust responses in the model extratropical circulation: poleward shifts in the extratropical tropospheric storm tracks and a weakened stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation. The former result suggests heating in the tropical troposphere plays a fundamental role in the poleward contraction of the storm tracks found in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-class climate change simulations; the latter result is in the opposite sense of the trends in the Brewer–Dobson circulation found in most previous climate change experiments. 2) Cooling in the polar stratosphere also drives a poleward shift in the extratropical storm tracks. The tropospheric response is largely consistent with that found in previous studies, but it is shown to be very sensitive to the level and depth of the forcing. In the stratosphere, the Brewer–Dobson circulation weakens at midlatitudes, but it strengthens at high latitudes because of anomalously poleward heat fluxes on the flank of the polar vortex. 3) Warming at the polar surface drives an equatorward shift of the storm tracks. The storm-track response to polar warming is in the opposite sense of the response to tropical tropospheric heating; hence large warming over the Arctic may act to attenuate the response of the Northern Hemisphere storm track to tropical heating. 4) The signs of the tropospheric and stratospheric responses to all thermal forcings considered here are robust to seasonal changes in the basic state, but the amplitude and details of the responses exhibit noticeable differences between equinoctial and wintertime conditions. Additionally, the responses exhibit marked nonlinearity in the sense that the response to multiple thermal forcings applied simultaneously is quantitatively different from the sum of the responses to the same forcings applied independently. Thus the response of the model to a given thermal forcing is demonstrably dependent on the other thermal forcings applied to the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) integrations coupled to a fully interactive sulfur cycle scheme were run on the climateprediction.net platform to investigate the uncertainty in the climate response to sulfate aerosol and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing. The sulfate burden within the model (and the atmosphere) depends on the balance between formation processes and deposition (wet and dry). The wet removal processes for sulfate aerosol are much faster than dry removal and so any changes in atmospheric circulation, cloud cover, and precipitation will feed back on the sulfate burden. When CO2 is doubled in the Hadley Centre Slab Ocean Model (HadSM3), global mean precipitation increased by 5%; however, the global mean sulfate burden increased by 10%. Despite the global mean increase in precipitation, there were large areas of the model showing decreases in precipitation (and cloud cover) in the Northern Hemisphere during June–August, which reduced wet deposition and allowed the sulfate burden to increase. Further experiments were also undertaken with and without doubling CO2 while including a future anthropogenic sulfur emissions scenario. Doubling CO2 further enhanced the increases in sulfate burden associated with increased anthropogenic sulfur emissions as observed in the doubled CO2-only experiment. The implications are that the climate response to doubling CO2 can influence the amount of sulfate within the atmosphere and, despite increases in global mean precipitation, may act to increase it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mid-latitude eddies are an important component of the climatic system due to their role in transporting heat, moisture and momentum from the tropics to the poles, and also for the precipitation associated with their fronts, especially in winter. We study northern hemisphere storm-tracks at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and their influence on precipitation using ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM) simulations from the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2). The difference with PMIP1 results in terms of sea-surface temperature forcing, fundamental for storm-track dynamics, is large, especially in the eastern North Atlantic where sea-ice extends less to the south in OAGCMs compared to atmospheric-only GCMs. Our analyses of the physics of the eddies are based on the equations of eddy energetics. All models simulate a consistent southeastward shift of the North Pacific storm-track in winter, related to a similar displacement of the jet stream, partly forced by the eddies themselves. Precipitation anomalies are consistent with storm-track changes, with a southeastward displacement of the North Pacific precipitation pattern. The common features of North Atlantic changes in the LGM simulations consist of a thinning of the storm-track in its western part and an amplification of synoptic activity to the southeast, in the region between the Azores Islands and the Iberian Peninsula, which reflects on precipitation. This southeastward extension is related to a similar displacement of the jet, partly forced by the eddies. In the western North Atlantic, the synoptic activity anomalies are at first order related to baroclinic generation term anomalies, but the mean-flow baroclinicity increase due to the presence of the Laurentide ice-sheet is partly balanced by a loss of eddy efficiency to convert energy from the mean flow. Moisture availability in this region is greatly reduced due to more advection of dry polar air by stationary waves, leading to less synoptic-scale latent heat release and hence less precipitation also. In terms of seasonality, the stormy season is shifted later in the year by a few days to a month depending on the season and the model considered. This shift does not directly reflect on the first-order seasonal cycle of precipitation, which also depends on other mechanisms, especially in summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, a dry global circulation model is used to examine the contributions made by orographic and diabatic forcings in shaping the zonal asymmetries in the earth's Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter climate. By design, the model mean flow is forced to bear a close resemblance to the observed zonal mean and stationary waves. The model also provides a decent simulation of the storm tracks. In particular, the maxima over the Pacific and Atlantic, and minima over Asia and North America, are fairly well simulated. The model also successfully simulates the observation that the Atlantic storm track is stronger than the Pacific storm track, despite stronger baroclinicity over the Pacific. Sensitivity experiments are performed by imposing and removing various parts of the total forcings. In terms of the NH winter stationary waves in the upper troposphere, results of this study are largely consistent with previous studies. Diabatic forcings explain most of the modeled stationary waves, with orographic forcings playing only a secondary role, and feedbacks due to eddy fluxes probably play only minor roles in most cases. Nevertheless, results of this study suggest that eddy fluxes may be important in modifying the response to orographic forcings in the absence of zonal asymmetries in diabatic heating. On the other hand, unlike the conclusion reached by previous studies, it is argued that the convergence of eddy momentum fluxes is important in forcing the oceanic lows in the lower troposphere, in agreement with one's synoptic intuition. Regarding the NH winter storm-track distribution, results of this study suggest that NH extratropical heating is the most important forcing. Zonal asymmetries in NH extratropical heating act to force the Pacific storm track to shift equatorward and the Atlantic storm track to shift poleward, attain a southwest–northeast tilt, and intensify. It appears to be the main forcing responsible for explaining why the Atlantic storm track is stronger than the Pacific storm track. Tibet and the Rockies are also important, mainly in suppressing the storm tracks over the continents, forcing a clearer separation between the two storm tracks. In contrast, asymmetries in tropical heating appear to play only a minor role in forcing the model storm-track distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is thought that the Northern Hemisphere experienced only ephemeral glaciations from the Late Eocene to the Early Pliocene epochs (about 38 to 4 million years ago), and that the onset of extensive glaciations did not occur until about 3 million years ago. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain this increase in Northern Hemisphere glaciation during the Late Pliocene. Here we use a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model and an ice-sheet model to assess the impact of the proposed driving mechanisms for glaciation and the influence of orbital variations on the development of the Greenland ice sheet in particular. We find that Greenland glaciation is mainly controlled by a decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide during the Late Pliocene. By contrast, our model results suggest that climatic shifts associated with the tectonically driven closure of the Panama seaway, with the termination of a permanent El Niño state or with tectonic uplift are not large enough to contribute significantly to the growth of the Greenland ice sheet; moreover, we find that none of these processes acted as a priming mechanism for glacial inception triggered by variations in the Earth’s orbit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ice sheet-climate interaction as well as the climatic response to orbital parameters and atmospheric CO2 concentration are examined in order to drive an ice sheet model throughout an ice age cycle. Feedback processes between ice sheet and atmosphere are analyzed by numerical experiments using a high resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) under different conditions at the Last Glacial Maximum. Among the proposed processes, the ice albedo feedback, the elevation-mass balance feedback and the desertification effect over the ice sheet were found to be the dominant processes for the ice-sheet mass balance. For the elevation-mass balance feedback, the temperature lapse rate over the ice sheet is proposed to be weaker than assumed in previous studies. Within the plausible range of parameters related to these processes, the ice sheet response to the orbital parameters and atmospheric CO2 concentration for the last glacial/interglacial cycle was simulated in terms of both ice volume and geographical distribution, using a three-dimensional ice-sheet model. Careful treatment of climate-ice sheet feedback is essential for a reliable simulation of the ice sheet changes during ice age cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A 3-dimensional thermo-mechanical ice-sheet model is used to simulate the evolution of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets through the last glacial-interglacial cycle. The ice-sheet model is forced by the results from six different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The climate evolution over the period under study is reconstructed using two climate equilibrium simulations performed for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and for the present-day periods and an interpolation through time between these snapshots using a glacial index calibrated against the GRIP δ18O record. Since it is driven by the timing of the GRIP signal, the temporal evolution of the ice volume and the ice-covered area is approximately the same from one simulation to the other. However, both ice volume curves and spatial distributions of the ice sheets present some major differences from one AGCM forcing to the other. The origin of these differences, which are most visible in the maximum amplitude of the ice volume, is analyzed in terms of differences in climate forcing. This analysis allows for a partial evaluation of the ability of GCMs to simulate climates consistent with the reconstructions of past ice sheets. Although some models properly reproduce the advance or retreat of ice sheets in some specific areas, none of them is able to reproduce both North American or Eurasian ice complexes in full agreement with observed sea-level variations and geological data. These deviations can be attributed to shortcomings in the climate forcing and in the LGM ice-sheet reconstruction used as a boundary condition for GCM runs, but also to missing processes in the ice-sheet model itself. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The leading pattern of Northern Hemisphere winter height variability exhibits an annular structure, one related to tropical west Pacific heating. To explore whether this pattern can be excited by tropical Pacific SST variations, an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab mixed layer ocean is employed. Ensemble experiments with an idealized SST anomaly centered at different longitudes on the equator are conducted. The results reveal two different response patterns—a hemispheric pattern projecting on the annular mode and a meridionally arched pattern confined to the Pacific–North American sector, induced by the SST anomaly in the west and the east Pacific, respectively. Extratropical air–sea coupling enhances the annular component of response to the tropical west Pacific SST anomalies. A diagnosis based on linear dynamical models suggests that the two responses are primarily maintained by transient eddy forcing. In both cases, the model transient eddy forcing response has a maximum near the exit of the Pacific jet, but with a different meridional position relative to the upper-level jet. The emergence of an annular response is found to be very sensitive to whether transient eddy forcing anomalies occur within the axis of the jet core. For forcing within the jet core, energy propagates poleward and downstream, inducing an annular response. For forcing away from the jet core, energy propagates equatorward and downstream, inducing a trapped regional response. The selection of an annular versus a regionally confined tropospheric response is thus postulated to depend on how the storm tracks respond. Tropical west Pacific SST forcing is particularly effective in exciting the required storm-track response from which a hemisphere-wide teleconnection structure emerges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The phase space structure of the attractor of a baroclinic quasigeostrophic model is analyzed in terms of mean tendencies in dominant EOF space. The dominant EOFs as well as the probability density functions in the planes spanned by the dominant EOFs are similar to corresponding features of the NCAR general circulation model, the Community Climate Model (CCM0). It is found that the mean motion is characterized by a cyclic motion involving the Northern Hemisphere annular mode (NAM), the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern, and a third pattern. States with positive (negative) projection onto this third pattern are characterized by a mean tendency toward increasing (decreasing) NAM and PNA amplitudes. The time scale of the cycle is about 20 days, and it compares well with an observed westward-propagating wave. Three regimes are identified in the space of the dominant EOFs. Preferred transition routes between these regimes exist and correspond to particular phases of the cycle. The authors hypothesize that the cycle corresponds to an unstable periodic orbit that is a remnant of a heteroclinic connection between the stationary points underlying the regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]