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Spatial conflicts of land use (SCLU) arise during land-use change, which causes an imbalance of land-use spatial patterns and negatively affects society, the economy, and ecology. Previous research has focused on identifying and measuring SCLU, with less attention on the negative effects. The incorporation of risk assessment methods to evaluate potential conflict risks has been limited. The current study presents methods for measuring SCLU and assessing potential conflict risks from the ecological environment perspective. The spatial comprehensive conflicts index and potential conflict risk index were used to identify and measure the SCLU and to assess and warn against potential conflict risks, respectively, based on a case study in the Ili River Valley in China. The impacts of terrain restriction and land-use change on the SCLU were explored. Results indicate that (1) the SCLU area in the Ili River Valley decreased by 2,608 km2 from 2010 to 2020, compared to the previous decade, the degree of conflict weakened, and the main body of the SCLU gradually shifted northwest. (2) The potential risk areas cover 20,268 km2 in 2020–2030 and are mainly distributed in the "Khorgas City–Huocheng County–Yining City–Yining County" group of towns, as well as along the Ili–Kunes rivers and in the ecological protection zone in the south of the Ili River Valley, which shows the clustering along the city and distribution along the river in the spatial pattern. (3) Topography had a significant impact on the SCLU, and the main types of land-use change in the severe-conflict zone were the reduction of grassland and the expansion of arable and built-up land. For future conflict mitigation in the Ili River Valley, cautioning against urban sprawl and safeguarding land ecological security is critical. This study systematically investigates and analyzes SCLU across three dimensions: theory, methodology, and application to produce a theoretical and practical framework to identify SCLU and assess potential conflict risks. • Spatial conflicts of oasis is studied from the perspective of ecological environment. • Spatial conflicts of land use is identified by risk index and Eco-environmental value. • The warning areas of potential conflict risks are evaluated by Risk Matrix Approach. • Topography and land use type change have significant impacts on spatial conflicts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on carbon cycling has attracted attention from both scientists and policy-makers. Based on material flow analysis, this study systematically budgets the carbon inputs, outputs and balance from 1980 to 2013 for China's agro-ecosystem and its sub-systems, including agricultural land use, livestock breeding and rural life. The results show that from 1980 to 2013, both the carbon input and output were growing gradually, with the carbon input doubling from 1.6 Pg C/year in 1980 to 3.4 Pg C/year in 2013, while carbon output grew from 2.2 Pg C/year in 1980 to 3.8 Pg C/year in 2013. From 1980 to 2013, the crop production system in China has remained a carbon source, and the agricultural land uses were also almost all carbon sources instead of carbon sinks. As soil carbon stock plays a very important role in deciding the function of China's agro-ecosystem as a carbon sink or source, practices that can promote carbon storage and sequestration will be an essential component of low carbon agriculture development in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's 2060 carbon neutrality goal has significant implications for energy, water, and land systems. However, the multi-sector dynamics among China's energy-water-land system have rarely been examined explicitly. This study adopts an integrated assessment framework to simulate China's energy-water-land system co-evolution under alternative carbon neutrality scenarios and climate impacts. Results show that although the net zero emission target provides the incentive for the energy system to move away from fossil fuels, total water withdrawal will increase due to the deployment of nuclear, bioenergy, and coal power plants with carbon capture and storage. Diversifying the negative emission technologies, by leveraging direct air capture technology, can alleviate the potential water stress and land use conflicts, which would otherwise be exacerbated by large-scale deployment of afforestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Northwest and northeast regions of China are the hotspots experiencing water withdrawal increases, while Bohai Rim and coastal regions are identified to experience fierce land competition. This study demonstrates the potential for general applicability to carry out resource planning and policy evaluation from the multi-sector coordination perspective. • Water-intensive electricity generation technologies drive up water withdrawal. • Diversifying negative emission technologies can reduce the impacts on water system. • Climate policy imposes more significant impacts than climate change. • Water withdrawal increases concentrate in Northwestern and Northeastern China. • Land competition mostly occurs in China's population-dense area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A general equilibrium model augmented with explicit bioenergy sectors is developed. • The scale of negative emission technologies under carbon neutrality is simulated. • Implications on land use and macro-economy are quantified. • Deploying BECCS and afforestation could reduce the cost of deep-decarbonization. • Current biomass resources cannot meet the demand for carbon neutrality. Almost all global scenarios under ambitious climate targets rely on the deployment of negative emission technologies (NETs). Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and afforestation are two promising NET options. However, their roles in most countries' deep decarbonization pathways and the potential economic and environmental implications have not been fully investigated. Besides, broad economic interactions and complex technical information of NETs bring challenges for traditional top-down or bottom-up models. To address the methodological issues, we integrate energy technology details into a macroeconomic framework and develop a national hybrid computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for China. Based on this, insights are provided into the deployment scale of BECCS and afforestation in China's mitigation pathways towards carbon neutrality by 2060, as well as the induced macroeconomic and land-use consequences. The results indicate that NETs are necessary for realizing carbon neutrality. BECCS would enter the market around 2030 and the share of negative emissions provided by it would reach about 79% in 2060. The carbon removals in 2060 would be 2,118 MtCO 2 yr−1, 170 MtCO 2 yr−1, and 617 MtCO 2 yr−1 from bioelectricity with CCS, biofuel with CCS, and afforestation, respectively. When only BECCS is deployed as NET, more fossil energy needs to be phased out and renewable energy would take larger market shares. In 2060, most biomass would consist of cellulosic crops (43–47%) and residues (49–52%). Cropland would decrease by 6.9–8.3% due to land competition caused by NET deployment. GDP loss would be 6.4% in 2060 to reach near-zero without NETs. If BECCS and afforestation are both adopted, GDP loss would be alleviated to 4.8%. This study supplements the existing global literature to identify the local feasibility and trade-offs of NET expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Land use regression (LUR) has been used to predict NO 2 and NO distribution. However, previous studies overlooked the possibility that the effect of land-use configuration on NO 2 and NO may not always be constant across the study domain. The objective of this study was to depict the spatially varying effect so as to better predict NO 2 and NO. First, a LUR model was adopted to screen the land-use factors for NO 2 and NO predictions. Then, a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was developed to delineate the spatial non-stationarity in the relationship. The results show that the GWR model improved NO 2 and NO prediction accuracy, with increases of 29.3% and 6.9%, respectively. The road ERSD (i.e., shortest distance to express road) factor had a negative effect on NO 2. The impervious AWMSI (i.e., area-weighted mean shape index) factor had a larger effect on NO in the northwest of Foshan, due to more uneven and dense distribution of impervious patches. NO had a steeper distribution gradient than NO 2 , which implies that NO is more localized. The relationships between land-use configuration, NO 2 and NO concentrations are not constant in space. This means that the predictive abilities of land-use factors for NO 2 and NO are different across Foshan. Overall, our approach can obtain a higher estimation accuracy than the LUR at city scale. It could also be applied easily for other air pollutants and in cities worldwide. Highlights • Landscape metrics depict the spatial disparity of urban land-use configuration. • Discrepant influences of land-use configuration on NO 2 and NO were revealed. • GWR increased NO 2 and NO prediction accuracy by 29.3% and 6.9%, respectively. • NO had a steeper spatial distribution gradient than NO 2. • The findings benefit optimal regulation of the urban land-use configuration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]