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Karst spring water dynamic characteristics and its response to atmospheric precipitation are of great significance for water resources utilization under the background of climate change. This paper selects Longzici spring area, North China, as the study area. Based on a long series of spring water flow and precipitation data, the dynamic characteristics of spring flow were analyzed and the numerical simulation of the groundwater flow model was established. The results show that the groundwater kept the sustained decline over the past decades which is in a negative equilibrium state, with a storage variable of − 2.26 million m3/year. The sensitivity of spring flow to precipitation under different precipitation scenarios shows that the water level changes in the recharge and drainage areas are similar about (3–5 cm) and slightly larger than that in the runoff area(1.5 cm) when minimum rainfall (287.24 mm) happens. When the precipitation is at its maximum (867.66 mm), the water level change in the runoff area can reach 95 cm which is much larger than those in the recharge and discharge areas. The results indicate that Longzici karst spring has a relatively good regulation water resource capacity and the runoff area is more sensitive which plays an important role in response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantitatively evaluation of satellite precipitation and potential evapotranspiration products with the high resolution, wide coverage and dynamic continuity is an important foundation for drought monitoring over mainland China. This paper examined the accuracy of products and the utility of drought monitoring using the newly released long-term (more than 30 years) satellite precipitation products (climate hazards group infrared precipitation with station, CHIRPS) data version 2.0 and potential evapotranspiration products (global land-surface evaporation: the Amsterdam methodology, GLEAM) dataset. We selected standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and six statistical and classification measures indexes to evaluate accuracy and the utility of CHIRPS and GLEAM-Ep (potential evapotranspiration derived from GLEAM), with China Gauge-based Precipitation Daily Analysis dataset (CGDPA) and potential evapotranspiration calculated by Penman-Monteith (PM-Ep) as evaluation reference data sets. The results showed that CHIRPS and GLEAM-Ep performed well in eastern and southwest of China. However, their performance in western China was uncertain due to the sparsity of meteorological stations. SPEIs (SPEI value calculated by the CHIRPS and GLEAM-Ep) had a good performance on drought monitoring in eastern and southwestern China. Values of correlation coefficient (CC) between SPEIs and SPEIm (SPEI value calculated by the CGDPA and PM-Ep) were more than 0.6 in southeastern China, southwestern China, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River region and northern China, especially in relatively humid areas, which the correlation coefficient values were more than 0.7 and the root mean-squared error (RMSE) values were less than 0.8. In order to further evaluate the performance of SPEIs in drought monitoring at spatial and temporal scales, the SPEIs3 (SPEIs at three-month scale) and SPEIm3 (SPEIm at three-month scale) in southeastern China, southwestern China, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River region and northern China were compared. SPEIs3 had a better simulation effect on the evolution process of the ratio of drought area in those regions during1981-2016. And the success ratio of simulating drought duration was about 0.93, 0.57, 0.71 and 0.81, respectively. Moreover, SPEIs3 displayed a high accuracy over the four regions in capturing drought, which was the spatial distribution of typical drought events on specific month. In conclusion, SPEI based on long-term CHIRPS and GLEAM-Ep could be applied to monitor and evaluate drought in eastern and southwestern China. This paper can provide reliable reference for monitoring and warning of drought events and water resources management in those regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intensity of interannual variation of spring precipitation over southern China during 1979–2014 and possible reasons for it are investigated in this paper. There is a significant interdecadal change in the intensity of interannual variation of spring precipitation over southern China around 1995/96. The intensity of interannual variation of spring rainfall over South China is stronger during 1979–95 than that during 1996–2014. The possible reason may be the larger amplitude of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the western Pacific Ocean (WP) before 1995/96. The cooler (warmer) SSTA in WP may trigger an abnormal local anticyclone (cyclone) at lower levels. The anomalous southwesterly (northeasterly) flow at the northwestern flank of the WP anticyclone (cyclone) covers South China, transporting more (less) moisture to South China. Meanwhile, the anomalous winds converge (diverge) in South China at lower levels and diverge (converge) at upper levels, which causes the anomalous ascent (descent) to enhance (reduce) the precipitation over there. However, during 1996–2014, the intensity of interannual variation of spring rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley becomes much stronger than that during 1979–95, which is related to the intensified interannual variation of the atmospheric circulation in the middle and high latitudes over Eurasia. The weak (strong) Siberian high and East Asian trough may reduce (enhance) the northerly wind from the middle and high latitudes. As a result, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley are subjected to the anomalous southerly wind, favoring more (less) precipitation over there. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous circulation indices have been applied in practical climate services focused on regional precipitation. It is beneficial to identify the most influential or decisive indices, but this is difficult with conventional correlation analyses because of the underlying nonlinear mechanisms for precipitation. This paper demonstrates a set of the most influential indices for July–August precipitation in North China, based on the recursive random forest (RRF) method. These decisive circulation indices include the Polar–Eurasia teleconnection, North African subtropical high ridge position, India–Burma trough, Antarctic Oscillation, Northern Hemisphere polar vortex central latitude, North Atlantic Oscillation, and western Pacific subtropical high northern boundary position. Some of these factors have been recognized as directly influential to the regional precipitation, for example, those of the northwestern Pacific subtropical high; however, some are not easily understood. Decision tree (DT) models using these indices were developed to facilitate composite analyses to explain the RRF results. Taking one of the most interesting DT rules as an example, when the North African subtropical high ridge position is sufficiently far south, an anomalous anticyclone occurs in the upstream and an anomalous cyclone in the downstream of North China. This is unfavorable for northward moisture transport in eastern China and hence causes less precipitation in North China than climatology. The present results are not only helpful for improving diagnostic models of regional precipitation, but also enlightening for exploring how global climate change could impact a region by modulating large-scale circulation patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we evaluate a 48‐member multiphysics ensemble using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the JJA extreme precipitation and temperature in 2003 over the CORDEX‐EA‐II domain. The simulated precipitation and temperature are reasonable in the subregions controlled by a large‐scale circulation, yet the biases for both precipitation and temperature are evident over the subregions where the effects of mesoscale processes are important. The performance of various combinations of WRF physical schemes for simulating the JJA precipitation is dependent on the region. Meanwhile, the cumulus and microphysical schemes have substantial influences on the simulation of precipitation, and the land surface models and cumulus schemes play crucial roles in the surface temperature. Our analysis shows that the combination of Noah for the land surface process, Lin for the microphysics, G3D for the cumulus parameterization, and CAM for the radiation scheme can provide the most reliable reproduction of both precipitation and temperature extremes over China. Ensemble analysis shows that the simulated climate extremes are usually accompanied by a large ensemble spread, implying sensitivities to the model physical processes in some subregions. The simulated wind fields at low‐to‐middle atmospheric levels display responses to the options of the land surface models and cumulus schemes. The essential impact of the land–atmospheric interaction on simulating the extremes can be largely attributed to the active convective processes. WRF has difficulties in reproducing the observed temporal evolution of the rainfall process, which consists of continuous large rainfall episodes in the observation data set during the simulation period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the annual and seasonal precipitation variability at 20 stations over upper Indus River basin (UIRB) by using an innovative trend analysis (ITA) method, Mann-Kendall (MK) and Sen's slope estimator tests. Moreover, the annual precipitation time series is investigated for five precipitation intensities i.e. light, low, moderate, high and heavy; and on a seasonal scale for extreme values i.e. light and heavy precipitation intensities. Annual precipitation showed an increasing trend at four stations in the northeast region and a decreasing trend at two stations in the southeast region of UIRB. On a seasonal scale, the results showed that Garidopatta, Peshawar, Astore and Gupis stations are more sensitive to seasonal precipitation variabilities. Changes in heavy precipitation (> 90th percentile) are found more severe in winter and summer seasons in the northern regions suggesting a probable flooding aggravation. However, a reduction in flooding event observed during the spring season in the southern regions of the UIRB indicating a shift in the precipitation regime from south to north. The results of light precipitation (< 10th percentile) intensity showed that winter and spring seasons are more vulnerable to the occurrence of prolonged drought events. Moreover, ITA method has the advantage of detecting the sub-trends in the precipitation series because of its ability to present the results in graphical format. The results of this study could help to understand seasonal and annual precipitation variability over UIRB and will have imperative insinuations for further studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is important that developing and utilizing of unconventional water resources such as pond water in the lowland area of North China Plain due to the shortage of fresh water resource. Thus, making clear the storage capacity of pond as irrigation water resources in years with different amount of precipitation and studying the relationship between precipitation and pond water storage are of great significance to the usages of multiple water resources in agriculture. Taking Nanpi County in Hebei Province as study area, this paper used the methods of Cl- and stable isotope balance to calculate the contribution of precipitation to pond water in rainy season. Besides, based on the Landsat TM remote sensing data during 2013- 2015, the improved normalized difference water body index was used to extract the pond information and analyze the water storage capacity of ponds in Nanpi County in years with different amount of precipitation. The results showed that precipitation is the main source of pond water, and the groundwater was the second source. According to the calculation of Cl- and stable isotope, precipitation accounts for 74.3%-86.0% of water supply for medium and small ponds during the rainy season in wet year, however, it accounts for only less than 30% of water supply for large ponds. The ponds are mainly small ponds with area less than 0.5 hm2. The number and the water storage area of ponds with different areas changed with precipitation. The water storage capacity of ponds in flat water year, dry year and wet year were 1.49×107, 0.84×107 and 1.90× 107 m3, respectively. The results provide important infromation for the pond water management and utilization in the lowland area of North China Plain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deriving high quality precipitation estimates at high spatial resolution is of prime importance for many hydrological, meteorological, and environmental investigations. Rain gauge observations and satellite-derived precipitation data are two main sources of precipitation estimates. Gauge observations are accurate and reliable, but are heavily point-based and sparse in areas of rugged or complex terrains. Satellite-derived precipitation products can cover large areas, but they are generally characterized by inherent bias. To optimize the use of both datasets, we propose in this paper, a downscaling-integration framework to generate high quality monthly precipitation datasets at 1 km spatial resolution by merging rain gauge observations and TRMM 3B43 products. Firstly, an area-to-point kriging (ATPK) approach is used to downscale the original TRMM product to 1 km, so as to ensure a fair comparison with rain gauge data. Then, the downscaled TRMM precipitation datasets are integrated with the gauge observations using geographically weighted regression kriging (GWRK). The geographical factors (i.e. longitude, latitude and elevation) are also used as auxiliary variables in the GWRK model. Applying this approach to an experiment conducted at the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China from 2001 to 2014 shows that: (1) the downscaled monthly TRMM precipitation data by ATPK are more accurate than the original TRMM estimates; (2) the GWRK model employing the downscaled TRMM precipitation data and geographical factors provides better monthly precipitation estimates than the conventional ordinary kriging (OK) interpolation and the commonly used merging methods (i.e. geographical difference analysis, GDA and kriging with external drift, KED); (3) the GWRK method reduces the influence of the inaccuracy (bias) of satellite-derived precipitation data on the precipitation estimates compared to GDA. The approach presented in this study has provided an efficient alternative for solving the scale mismatch problem between point-based gauge data and low resolution satellite data, and producing improved precipitation data at high spatial resolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Loess Plateau has great uncertainty on drought occurrence due to climate change. This paper analyzes the evolution of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) based on the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) data and regional downscaling model (RegCM4.0). Results indicate that, under RCP2.6 Scenario, the precipitation will increase significantly (5% confidence level) at the rate of 16.40 mm/10 a. However, the potential evapotranspiration is showing non-significant decreasing trend at the rate of 2.16 mm/10 a. Moreover, the SPEI will decrease in the south and northernmost area and increase in the central northern area of Loess Plateau. Under RCP8.5 Scenario, the precipitation will increase significantly (5% confidence level) at the rate of 19.12 mm/10 a. The potential evapotranspiration will non-significantly decrease at the rate of 2.16 mm/10 a and the SPEI is showing increasing trend almost in the whole Loess Plateau. Generally, Loess Plateau is becoming wetter in the central part under RCP2.6 Scenario and the wet area will be enlarged to almost the whole plateau under RCP8.5 Scenario. Based on the results, the water resources will increase under global warming, which may alleviate the water scarcity issue in the Loess Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: In this paper, the trends of the annual streamflow and precipitation and cross correlations between them were analyzed in nine large river basins of China during 1956–2005. The results indicate that: (1) the annual mean streamflow decreases in arid and semi-arid regions of north China; however, increasing trends occur in south and Southwest China; (2) the annual streamflow and precipitation exhibit reasonable correlation in nine large river basins except those located in inland areas. The annual streamflow over most areas of China is fed by precipitation; however, the decline in streamflow is faster than the decreases of precipitation since 1970s in the arid and semi-arid regions of north China. The relationship between the annual precipitation and streamflow presents a non-stationary state in north China. This non-stationary relationship is strongly influenced by both human activities and precipitation changes; (3) a significant increase of water use might be the major factor responsible for the steeper decline in streamflow than in precipitation in Haihe River, Yellow River and Songliao River basins in north China. In inland river areas, increase of water use and actual evapotranspiration might result in decline in streamflow although precipitation has an increase tendency. This paper sheds light on the non-stationary relationship between annual precipitation and streamflow and possible underlying causes, which will be helpful for a better understanding of the changes of precipitation and streamflow in China at large scale and in other regions of the world. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Middle and eastern routes of the South-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) of China, which are approximately located within the area 28°-42°N and 110°-122°E, are being constructed. This paper investigates the past climatic variations on various time scales using instrumental and proxy data. It is found that annual mean surface air temperature has increased significantly during the past 50-100 years, and winter and spring temperatures in the northern part of the region have undergone the most significant changes. A much more significant increase occurs for annual mean minimum temperature and extreme low temperature than for annual mean maximum temperature and extreme high temperature. No significant trend in annual precipitation is found for the region as a whole for the last 50 and 100 years, although obvious decadal and spatial variation is detectable. A seesaw pattern of annual and summer precipitation variability between the north and the south of the region is evident. Over the last 100 years, the Haihe River basin has witnessed a significant negative trend of annual precipitation, but no similar trend is detected for the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins. Pan evaporation has significantly decreased since the mid-1960s in the region in spite of the fact that the trend appears to have ended in the early 1990s. The negative trend of pan evaporation is very significant in the plain area between the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers. There was a notable series of dry intervals lasting decades in the north of the region. The northern drought of the past 30 years is not the most severe in view of the past 500 years; however, the southern drought during the period from the 1960s to the 1980s may have been unprecedented. The dryness-wetness index (DWI) shows significant oscillations with periodicities of 9.5 and 20 years in the south and 10.5 and 25 years in the north. Longer periodicities in the DWI series include 160-170- and 70-80-yr oscillations in the north, and 100-150-yr oscillations in the south. The observed climate change could have implications for the construction and management of the SNWDP. The official approval and start of the hydro project was catalyzed by the severe multiyear drought of 1997-2003 in the north, and the operation and management of the project in the future will also be influenced by climate change-in particular by precipitation variability. This paper provides a preliminary discussion of the potential implications of observed climate change for the SNWDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The start and duration of a drought are often not easy to define. The advance and onset are usually slow and the social and economic impacts can then extend over a long period. In this study, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to describe and compare droughts in different periods and regions under different climatic conditions. The importance of the index lies in its simplicity and in its ability to identify the beginning and end of a drought event. Thus it may be a useful tool for drought contingency planning. This paper examines the SPI by evaluating its application using historical precipitation data from nine weather stations in China. Different time series data covering the period 1980 to 2011 and for differing timescales of 3, 9 and 24 months were used. The results underline the potential of the SPI to inform drought alerts and forecasting efforts as part of a drought contingency planning strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzed the data of temperature and precipitation in Turpan and Nantong, in the west and east of China, respectively, during the period of 1961 –2007 by linear groWh rate, moving average methods, Mann-Kendall nonparametric and moving Ttests. The result indicated that the annual average temperature in Turpan had a linear groWh rate of 0.42 °C/10 a, while the annual average temperature in Nantong had a linear tendency of 0.48 °C/10 a. The annual average maximum temperature in Turpan with linear groWh rate of 0.16 °C/10 a was lower than 0.56 °C/ 10 a of Nantong, and the annual average minimum temperature in Turpan with linear growh rate of 0.86 °C/10 a was higher than 0.70 °C/10 a of Nantong. The annual average temperature of Turpan increasing was 7 years earlier than Nantong. The annual average maximum temperature of Turpan increasing was 5 years later than Nantong. The annual average minimum temperature of Turpan increased as same as Nantong in 1986, but the curve showed different process completely. The abrupt change year of average temperature between Turpan and Nantong were same in 1996, and the abrupt change year of average maximum temperature of Turpan was 5 years later than Nantong. For precipitation, Turpan and Nantong had the same trend of increased and decreased. The reason of almost identical trend of temperature and precipitation between Turpan and Nantong may be urbanization and population increasing influencing climate change in a small area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary The climate elasticity of runoff is an important indicator that is used to quantify the relationship between changes in runoff and changes in climate variables. It is a function of both climate and catchment characteristics. Recently, Yang and Yang (2011) proposed an analytical derivation of climate elasticity (YY2011), in which a parameter n was used to represent the impact of the catchment characteristics. In China, both climate and catchment characteristics have large spatial variations. To understand the spatial variation of hydrologic response to climate change, this paper divided China into 210 catchments, further calculated the parameter n , and then estimated the climate elasticity and evaluated the contribution of climate change to runoff for each catchment. The results show that n ranges from 0.4 to 3.8 (with a mean of 1.3 and a standard deviation of 0.6), which has a logarithmic relationship with catchment slope; the precipitation elasticity ranges from 1.1 to 4.8 (with a mean of 1.9 and a standard deviation of 0.6), which shows a large regional variation, smaller values (1.1–2.0) mainly appearing in Southern China, the Songhua River basin and the Northwest, and larger values (2.1–4.8) mainly appearing in the Hai River basin, the Liao River basin and the Yellow River basin. In addition, climate contribution to runoff exhibits a large regional variation, the largest positive values (1.1–3.1%/a) occurring in the Northwest, the largest negative values (−1.0 to −0.5%/a) occurring in the Hai River basin and the middle reach of the Yellow River basin. In theory, the YY2011 method is a first-order approximation. The approximation underestimates the precipitation ( P ) contribution to runoff when P increases and overestimates that when P decreases, and the relative error has a median of ∼3% and a maximum of ∼20% when 10% precipitations change in those catchments of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of the 30-60 day oscillation (intraseasonal oscillation, ISO) of summer rainfall in China and the effects of East Asian monsoon on the rainfall ISO are analyzed in this paper. Results show that the annual and decadal variations of the oscillation exist between 1960 and 2008, and the intensity is weakest in the late 1970s and early 1980s. In the typical strong years of the rainfall ISO obtained from empirical orthogonal functions (EOF mode 1), an anticyclone is in northwestern Pacific and a cyclone is in the east of China. In the typical weak years, the wind ISO is much weaker. The low-frequency zonal wind and water vapor transport from the low latitudes to mid-latitudes in the typical strong years, and the oscillation strength of diabatic heating is much stronger than that in the weak years of the rainfall ISO. The anomaly characteristics of the rainfall ISO show anti-phases between the Yangtze River basin and south of China. As for the typical strong years of the rainfall ISO in the Yangtze River basin (EOF mode 2), the main oscillation center of water vapor is in the east of China (20-30°N, 110-130°E). In the peak (break) phase of the rainfall oscillation, a low-frequency cyclone (anticyclone) is in the Yangtze River basin and an anticyclone (cyclone) is near Taiwan Island. In addition, the peak rainfall corresponds to the heat source in the Yangtze River basin and the heat sink in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. As for the typical strong years of the rainfall ISO in the south of China, the main oscillation center of water vapor is south of 20°N. In the peak (break) phase of the rainfall ISO, a low-frequency cyclone (anticyclone) is in the south of China and an anticyclone (cyclone) is in the Philippines. The peak rainfall corresponds to the heat source in the south of China and the South China Sea, and the heat sink in the west of Indochina. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The availability of precipitation data with high spatial resolution is of fundamental importance in several applications such as hydrology, meteorology and ecology. At present, there are mainly two sources of precipitation estimates: raingauge stations and remote sensing technology. However, a large number of studies demonstrated that traditional point measurements based on raingauge stations cannot reflect the spatial variation of precipitation effectively, especially in ungauged basins. The technology of remote sensing has greatly improved the quality of precipitation observations and produced reasonably high resolution gridded precipitation fields. These products, derived from satellites, have been widely used in various parts of the world. However, when applied to local basins and regions, the spatial resolution of these products is too coarse. In this paper, we present a statistical downscaling algorithm based on the relationships between precipitation and other environmental factors in the Qaidam Basin such as topography and vegetation, which was developed for downscaling the spatial precipitation fields of these remote sensing products. This algorithm is demonstrated with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B43 dataset, the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and SPOT VEGETATION. The statistical relationship among precipitation, DEM and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which is a proxy for vegetation, is variable at different scales; therefore, a multiple linear regression model was established under four different scales (0.25°, 0.50°, 0.75° and 1.00°, respectively). By applying a downscaling methodology, TRMM 3B43 0.25°×0.25° precipitation fields were downscaled to 1×1km pixel precipitation for each year from 1999 to 2009. On the basis of three criteria, these four downscaled results were compared with each other and the regression model established at the resolution of 0.50° was selected as the final downscaling algorithm in this study. The final downscaled results were validated by applying the observations for a duration of 11years obtained from six raingauge stations in the Qaidam Basin. These results indicated that the downscaled result effectively captured the trends in inter-annual variability and the magnitude of annual precipitation with the coefficient of determination r 2 ranging from 0.72 to 0.96 at six different raingauge stations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Beijing’s mountainous areas have an important ecological significance because they are ecological conservation and water source protection areas of Beijing. The impact of precipitation on the vegetation coverage of Beijing’s mountainous areas is qualitatively analyzed using multi-temporal Landsat images obtained during the last 20 years. Firstly, the influence of external factors, such as phenology and relative radiometric correction, on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are removed by the normalization of remote sensing images for different periods. Then, the vegetation coverage is calculated using the method of the dimidiate pixel model. Finally, based on that, the relationship between precipitation in different seasons and change of vegetation coverage is discussed. The results indicate that the mean vegetation coverage has the same change trends with winter and summer precipitation, but an opposite change trend with spring precipitation. The paper provides a theoretical basis and data support for further research on driving models of natural vegetation restoration in Beijing’s mountainous areas. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: Oxygen and hydrogen stable isotopes (δ 18O and δD) in precipitation collected in every event from 2007 to 2009 in Guangzhou, South China, are presented in this paper. The total correlation between δ 18O and δD is obtained as δD =(8.46±0.13) δ 18O+(15.0±0.9). More negative δ 18O and δD generally occur during summer and autumn, while less negative or even positive δ 18O and δD occur during winter and spring. Significant negative correlations between precipitation δ 18O and temperature, and between precipitation δ 18O and precipitation amount are observed. Regression line changes from year to year are likely due to changes in moisture sources for the precipitation. The moisture contributed by adjacent seas or local evaporation account for the main precipitation during winter and early spring, while summer monsoon brings huge amounts of moisture from remote seas associated with higher temperature and larger precipitation amounts. Seasonal variations of the precipitation D-excess provide more details for changes in moisture sources. Higher D-excess values during winter and early spring are estimated to correspond to a lesser proportion of remote moisture, while lower D-excess values during summer and autumn correspond to larger remote moisture transported by summer monsoons. This generally agrees with the results of model analysis on single isobaric backward trajectories for air parcels during specific time periods. Results of this study imply that precipitation δ 18O and δD, as well as some related paleoclimate proxies such as δ 18O in speleothem and tree ring, and δD in plant-derived organic compounds and tree ring, currently cannot indicate changes in temperature or precipitation amount separately, but should be comprehensive proxies for monsoon climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Long-term changes to the Yellow River delta in China have received considerable attention not only because of the growing economic importance of the delta region but also because they provide a clear example of the dominant role played by anthropogenic effects upon a large dynamic river delta. This paper presents a detailed study on the morphological consequences of reduction in river sediment load and influence of human activities based on sediment load data at three gauging stations in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River basin from 1950 to 2007. The results indicate that sediment loads at all three gauging stations display a gradually decreasing trend over the past 58years. The primary reason for this decrease is shown to be due to various human activities, including the construction of Longyangxia and Liujiaxia reservoirs in the upper reaches, water–soil conservation practices and the commissioning of Sanmenxia and Xiaolangdi reservoirs in the middle reaches. It is estimated that water–soil conservation practices which are a major factor to the decrease of sediment load at Huayuankou gauging station account for 40% of the total amount of reduction, sediment trapping by Sanmenxia and Xiaolangdi reservoirs account for 30% of the total amount of reduction and the 10% decrease is caused by human activities in the upper reaches. The remaining 20% decrease is attributed to precipitation decrease. The reduction of sediment load has directly impacted on the lower Yellow River and the delta region, causing alternate changes between siltation and scouring in the lower river channel along with an increased rate of erosion over the whole Yellow River delta. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Vegetation around the Daihai Lake, northern China, is very sensitive to climate changes. In this paper, pollen-based quantitative climate reconstructions using three methods [weighted averaging partial least squares method (WAPLS), modern analog technique (MAT), and pollen response surface method (PRS)] were conducted to obtain robust reconstructions of Holocene climate changes in the Daihai Lake area. The result obtained by the three methods all consistently show the annual precipitation to have been 50–100 mm lower in the early Holocene, 100–200 mm higher in the Mid-Holocene, and 50–100 mm lower again in the late Holocene than at present. The WAPLS and the MAT methods also show quasi-synchronous oscillations of the mean annual temperature (Ta); 1°–2°C lower in the Early Holocene and 1°–3°C higher in the Mid-Holocene than today. The time period from 6200 to 5100 cal yr BP was the wettest and the warmest interval, with an annual precipitation (Pa) greater than 550 mm and mean annual temperature Ta higher than 6.5°C. Several cold and dry events can be identified to occur about 8200, 6000, and 4400 cal yr BP, with an annual precipitation less than 400 mm and a mean annual temperature colder than 4.5°C, respectively. The mean temperature of the warmest month (Tw) as reconstructed using both WAPLS and MAT methods was relatively stable during the Holocene, fluctuating about ±2°C relative to the present level, but the PRS method suggests more varied Tw values in both amplitude and frequency. After 1500 cal yr BP, no consistent pattern can be observed from these three different analyses, probably because of the impact of intensified human disturbances on the natural vegetation. The fluctuations of annual precipitation (Pa) correspond to that observed in Dongge Cave in southern China. The differences might be linked to Indian monsoon and East Asia monsoon climates or caused by the different degree of dating precision, different temporal resolution, and different sensitive response of climate proxies to the climate variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Dynamic yield prediction with the integral regression model at any time intervals. • Remote sensing-based TVDI replaces precipitation to represent the actual amount of water available to crops. • We couple the three types of factors (sunshine hours, temperature, and precipitation/TVDI) into a comprehensive factor for yield prediction. • The combination of sunshine hours, temperature, and TVDI has better dynamic yield prediction results. This paper describes integrating remote sensing and meteorological data for dynamic winter wheat yield prediction at fixed date intervals with an integral regression model. In most cases, both rainfall and irrigation supply the water needs of crops. We postulated that meteorological precipitation could not fully represent the actual amount of water available to crops, whereas the temperature vegetation dryness index (TVDI) can represent actual water, which monitors soil moisture. According to this, meteorological and remote-sensing data based on sunshine hours, temperature, and TVDI formed a light–temperature–water data combination, which are the three most fundamental and critical factors related to crop growth. The new data combination was used as the input variables of the integral regression model, which could predict the crop yield at a fixed date interval of any length. The dynamic results were then compared with that of the meteorology data combination (sunshine hours, temperature, and precipitation). We selected a total of seven county-level areas in semi-humid and arid regions in China. The proposed dynamic prediction approach achieved good results at the county level from March 21 to maturity at 16-day intervals with predicted R2 > 0.94 and root mean squared error range of 15.54–121.01 kg ha−1 between predicted and actual yield with leave-one-year-out cross-validation for each prediction date. The trend of dynamic prediction accuracy had a relatively stable state. In addition, TVDI contained more crop water information, and prediction results using TVDI and meteorology were generally superior to that using only meteorology for semi-humid and arid areas, with the best results for arid regions. Thus, integrating meteorology and TVDI could effectively dynamically predict yield at county level for most agroclimatic regions, and particularly for arid regions. The work has implications for dynamic yield prediction and improving prediction accuracy and can be extended to other areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The purpose of the paper is to extract and make the best use of rainfall information contained in the Chinese historical archives of Qing Dynasty, and reconstruct the precipitation series during 1736–1911. The study followed the Yu-Fen-Cun (rainfall infiltration depth) observation method in Qing Dynasty, to conduct soil infiltration experiment under the natural rainfall conditions during 2004–2006. The related parameters, such as precipitation, intensity, initial soil moisture content and infiltration depth have been measured at 10 stations (east of 105°E, 30°–40°N) with representative climatic conditions and soil physical texture in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley. The statistical results indicate that precipitation is the primary influencing factor to infiltration depth and is positively correlated with the infiltration depth. Additionally, the effects of every factor on infiltration depth are significantly different between the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley. Finally, the relationship equations of precipitation and infiltration depth are established for each site, most of which can pass over 60% of the variance explanations and provide quantitative models to reconstruct the precipitation series using Yu-Fen-Cun records in Qing Dynasty. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The large scale character of the interannual variation of precipitation and the urban effect on local annual precipitation anomaly are investigated in this paper based on the 1960-2000 annual precipitation observations at 20 stations in the Beijing region. The results show that: the annual precipitation in the Beijing region possesses the large scale variation character with the linear trend of -1. 197/10 yr, which corresponds to a total reduction of 27.82 mm in annual precipitation in the 41 years; the local annual precipitation anomalies (percent of the normal 1960-2000) show a positive center near the urban area, i. e. urban precipitation island (UPI), whose intensity increases with the linear trend of 0.6621% /10 yr, opposite to the interannual trend of large scale precipitation over the Beijing region; changes in the UPI are also associated with the intensity of synoptic processes of precipitation, and when the synoptic processes are strong (wet years), the intensity of UPI strengthens, while the synoptic processes are weak (dry years), and the UPI disappears in the Beijing region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of urbanization on regional precipitation is one of the most important issues in hydrology. This paper selected the North Haihe Basin as the study area and explored the connection between summer precipitation and urbanization index (URBI) based on satellite precipitation and nighttime lights datasets. A moving spatial percentage anomaly method (MSP) was used to signify the local induced enhancement of precipitation (LIEP). Local indicators of spatial association (LISA) clustering for LIEP and URBI based on Bivariate Moran's I coupled with digital elevation model (DEM) segmentation was used to separate the impacts caused by urbanization and terrain uplifting, and thus, the regions of interest (ROI) where the urban induced enhancement of precipitation (UIEP) plays a dominant role were located. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was used to reveal the spatial variation of the sensitivity of UIEP to URBI within the ROI. Pearson correlation and cross-wavelet analyses (XWT) were adopted to investigate the teleconnection between UIEP and climate anomalies, using Niño3.4 and SOI as indices. The results indicated that: (1) Urbanization effects on precipitation spatial variation in the upstream mountainous area would be hidden away by topographic factors. (2) From the perspective of the basin, the highest urbanization level areas have the Lowest LIEP, while the suburban areas have the highest LIEP, and the rural areas are in the middle. (3) The UIEP and the URBI are generally negatively correlated within ROI. (4) UIEP versus Niño3.4 and SOI both show a significant common high-power period at a time scale of 2 years. This work can help comprehensively understand the hydrological response to urbanization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the diurnal variations of various clouds are analyzed using hourly cloud observations at weather stations in China from 1985 to 2011. In combination with merged hourly precipitation data, the relationship between the diurnal variations of clouds and precipitation in the summers from 2008 to 2011 are studied. The results show that the occurrence frequencies of total cloud and various cloud types exhibit significant diurnal variations. The diurnal variations of the occurrence frequencies of altocumulus and stratocumulus show a bimodal pattern, with peaks appearing in the early morning and late afternoon. The early morning peaks of altocumulus and stratocumulus appear earlier in the summer than in the other seasons, while the late afternoon maxima show an opposite trend. The occurrence frequency of nimbostratus peaks in the morning between 07 and 12 LST (local solar time), and the peak value lags 2 to 3 h from west to east along the Yangtze River valley; meanwhile, the diurnal variation shows no clear differences caused by changes in the latitude or seasons. Cumulus shows an afternoon (14 LST) maximum, while cumulonimbus peaks in the late afternoon during 16–20 LST, and both of them present a great diurnal range. Cirrus usually reaches its peak at 17–18 LST, and it differs by 1 to 2 h with a change in the latitude. The results of the study first show that the diurnal variations of precipitation among different regions are dominated by different clouds. The upper reaches of the Yangtze River valley present a midnight precipitation maximum that is mainly dominated by cumulonimbus. For the middle reaches of the Yangtze River valley impacted by nimbostratus, the precipitation peaks in the early morning. In South and Northeast China, the precipitation peaks in the afternoon and is determined by the diurnal variations of convective clouds. In the region between the Yangtze River valley and Yellow River valley, the precipitation peaks in the early morning and afternoon; the early morning peak is mainly determined by stratiform clouds, while the afternoon peak is closely related to convective clouds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]