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Aim: Rapid global warming is threatening global biodiversity, and it will likely lead to varying degrees of local adaptation, particularly amongst plant species. Besides, rising temperatures frequently result in upslope distribution shifts towards climatic optima (i.e. the escalator effect) within a limited dispersal space, such as in insular environments. Here, we integrated ecological and genetic approaches to investigate how climate change will impact the genetic compositions and spatial distributions of Taiwan's endemic maple Acer caudatifolium. Location: Taiwan. Methods: We estimate the distribution range shifts of A. caudatifolium under climate change through species distribution modelling (SDM). We also use 368 genotyped samples to infer dispersal and genetic hotspots and quantify the contributions of geography/environments to genetic variations. We further assess the potential risk to A. caudatifolium under different climate warming scenarios. Results: We detected three genetic diversity hotspots near mountainous glacial refugia and two dispersal hotspots in northern Taiwan and the central‐to‐southern Central Mountain Range. Overall range reductions and an altitudinal upslope shift were observed in SDM. Using both linear and nonlinear regression approaches, we found that genetic variation was significantly associated with geographic distance and elevation‐related climatic variables. The potential risk analysis revealed that the northernmost summit‐dwelling populations were the most vulnerable. Furthermore, the major risk factor differed amongst populations: for central populations, temperature and precipitation jointly determined the potential risk, whereas precipitation was the only risk factor for northern and southern populations. Main conclusions: This case study demonstrates how various climate factors, mountain height and the availability of corridors jointly determine the demographic fates and sustainability of island maples in the face of climate change. This study also provided estimates of the implications of global warming, which can be conducive to developing appropriate conservation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The Massenerhebung effect (Mass elevation effect) refers to heat‐ or wind‐driven altitudinal distribution patterns of temperature‐dependent parameters among massifs with narrower range and lower elevation around peripheral and isolated mountains compared to core and continuous ones. Although common in ecology, this effect is rarely discussed in population genetics. Here, we use genetic markers to reveal population genetic patterns and also test the mountain‐ and sky‐barrier hypotheses relevant to the Massenerhebung distribution pattern of Acer morrisonense in Taiwan's rugged topography and varied local climates. Location: The alpine and cloud forest of Taiwan. Taxon: Acer morrisonense Hayata. Methods: Two chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) fragments and 17 expressed sequence tag‐simple sequence repeat (EST‐SSR) loci, respectively, from 200 to 286 individuals were used to elucidate the phylogeographic pattern of pollen and seed dispersal of A. morrisonense. These data were combined with ecological niche modeling (ENM) to infer distribution range shifts and refugia. We also correlated the genetic‐divergence indices with spatial factors to clarify latitudinal and altitudinal effects on genetic diversity. Results: The incongruent phylogeographic patterns of genetic distributions between nuclear and cpDNA markers indicate unhindered pollen flow but spatially constrained seed dispersal. Taken together with ENM, the genetic pattern further reflects historical colonization from central‐mountain refugia to edges since the Holocene. The Massenerhebung reduces the gene flow by the surrounding mountains and also causes lower genetic diversity compared to central alpine populations. Main conclusions: This study is the first to reveal the influence of Massenerhebung effect on cpDNA genetic structure of montane trees and reflect the spatial trends of seed dispersal. This population genetic pattern can also be attributed to the demography‐related range shifts with paleoclimate fluctuations under complex mountain topography, supporting the mountain‐barrier hypothesis. The results have important implications for conserving the genetic diversity of species with a wide altitudinal distribution range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]