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Power system unreliability tracing model allocates the system's reliability index to individual components, identifying potential weaknesses. This study expands its scope by considering the impact of storage resources. Unreliable factors leading to load shedding are categorized into two groups: objective factors inherent to the component and insufficient storage resources. The latter requires a retrospective analysis of other components that caused unreliability previously. When allocating responsibility for load shedding at a certain time, it begins by allocating it among components based on differences between fixed expected output and actual supply. Expected output insufficiency is considered as the unreliable factor. This insufficiency due to insufficient storage resources is then decomposed into segments, each caused by excessive output in earlier instances of the same component. The expected output excess is attributed to the expected output insufficiency of other components in previous times, for which responsibility has been allocated to each component. Consequently, the expected output insufficiency at a particular time can be traced back based on a temporal recursive model, with the load shedding further allocated to components before that time. Case studies based on several systems demonstrate that the proposed model's allocation results are reasonable and more accurate than the traditional model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The integration of the variable renewable energies makes the operation conditions of the power system ever-changeable. Consequently, the power system operational reliability evaluation is increasingly important. This paper introduces the concept of decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU) in the operational reliability evaluation. Unlike the exogenous uncertainties, DDU reveals that the decisions of the system operation could significantly affect the resolution of the uncertainties which influence the reliability metrics. In this paper, the proposed DDU modeling method links the device reliability indices, i.e., the forced outage rate, and the operational-decision variables. The impacts of DDU on operational reliability are analyzed based on a reliability-constrained stochastic unit commitment (UC) model. An adaptive reliability improvement UC (ARIUC) algorithm is proposed to efficiently solve the problem. Case studies underline the necessity of considering DDU in power system operational reliability evaluations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cross-entropy (CE) method can accelerate power system reliability evaluation effectively. An importance sampling (IS) based iterative parameter updating algorithm is usually used in CE optimization. However, the efficiency in capturing the concerned samples for parameter updating may be unsatisfactory, especially for a system with intrinsic nature of rare failure events. Besides, the stopping criterion of this iterative algorithm is usually determined subjectively, incurring insufficient or excessive parameter updating and a resultant higher computational burden of the entire simulation. To address the above two problems, a CE method based on subset simulation and minimum computational burden criterion is proposed. In CE optimization, the subset simulation combined with M-H sampling is adopted as an alternative to IS to effectively improve the efficiency of capturing desired samples for parameter updating at each iteration. Moreover, a novel quantitative stopping criterion is presented in such a way that the computational burden for the entire simulation is estimated and compared after each parameter updating iteration, and the optimal parameters corresponding to the minimum computational burden can be determined. The computational performance of the proposed method is validated by comparing the proposed approach with existing methods under several numerical tests including a realistic power system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The electrical power grid is a critical infrastructure that plays a key role in supporting modern society. The reliability of power systems needs to be continuously maintained to deliver high-quality electric services. Due to the tremendous amounts of potential investment demanded for constructing new electricity transmission facilities, electric utilities need economical solutions that can enable them to supply electricity to their customers in a cost-effective and reliable way. Dynamic thermal rating (DTR) and network topology optimization (NTO) technologies aim to maximize the use of existing transmission assets and to provide flexible ways to enhance reliability of the power system. In this study, the DTR and NTO are incorporated into the power grid reliability assessment procedure using the sequential Monte Carlo simulation. Multiple case studies are carried out based on the modified IEEE RTS-79 and IEEE RTS-96 systems, accounting for long-term multiarea weather conditions. The numerical results indicate that with the incorporation of DTR and NTO, the reliability of power systems can be improved. The effect of these methods is especially significant for power grids with lower electricity delivery capabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, an optimal reliability allocation (ORA) model of ±800 kV ultra-high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission system is proposed. The model intends to provide the means to determine the availability requirements of components in the bidding process of ±800 kV ultra HVDC transmission projects. In this model, the component availability is optimized based on the prespecified system reliability. The objective function is composed of the component investment cost and the operation and maintenance cost. The ORA is formulated as a constrained nonlinear programming problem, and the genetic algorithm (GA) is used to find its solution. An improved dagger sampling (IDS) method is proposed to evaluate the reliability of ultra HVDC systems, and a bisection method is used to generate the initial population of the GA. An actual ultra HVDC project is used to conduct the case study. Results show that the proposed ORA model can minimize the component investment, operation, and maintenance costs, while achieving optimal allocation of the system reliability index to obtain the availability of components. In addition, the impact of the component spare on the ORA result is investigated. Performance comparison on the sampling efficiency of the IDS method and the direct Monte Carlo sampling method is also presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic and reliability benefits of adding a wind energy conversion system (WECS) to a power system are highly dependent on the wind turbine generator (WTG) installation design, i.e., the type and number of WTG. This paper presents an approach to determine the optimum installation design at each wind site considering the WTG parameters, the total cost of WECS and the power system reliability performance. The model is formulated as a combinatorial constrained optimization problem with a nonlinear, nondifferentiable objective function, which consists of the capital, maintenance and operating costs, and the costumer interruption costs. A number of constraints, including the total installed capacity at a specific wind site and the capital cost, are considered in the model. The model is solved using a genetic algorithm with adaptive crossover and mutation probabilities based on the standard deviation of chromosome fitness in a generation population. The proposed model and algorithm are tested on two power systems. The results show that the proposed approach can be used to obtain the maximum economic and reliability benefits associated with a WECS installation and is a powerful search technique for determining the optimum number and type of WTG considering reliability performance and costs. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Abstract: Power system component failures can generally be classified into two categories: repairable random failures and aging failures. An essential step in power system reliability evaluation is the calculation of component unavailability. The paper presents a new model for calculating the unavailability due to aging failures using the normal distribution. It is based on the strictly mathematical derivation and can be used more easily with high accuracy compared to the traditional model. An example of seven generating units and two test systems of the RBTS and the IEEE-RTS were used to demonstrate effectiveness of the proposed model and its applications in power system reliability evaluation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]