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In this study, a probabilistic analysis of the critical velocity for an axially moving cracked elastic and isotropic plate is presented. Axially moving materials are commonly used in modelling of manufacturing processes, like paper making and plastic forming. In such systems, the most serious threats to runnability are instability and material fracture, and finding the critical value of velocity is essential for efficiency. In this paper, a formula for the critical velocity is derived under constraints for the probabilities of instability and fracture. The significance of randomness in different model parameters is investigated for parameter ranges typical of paper material and paper machines. The results suggest that the most significant factors are variations in the crack length and tension magnitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper realize the Internet management for every step of undergraduate paper, and grantee the quality through some technique ways. And then applying D-S evidence theory for result evaluation is put forward in this paper, and using expert's evidence resources sufficiently for the last result. The study shows that, this method could promote the objectification and standardization of management and evaluation, and then promote the level of paper management efficiently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present theory for the shrinkage on drying of the cross-sectional area of cellulosic fibres and show that this depends on their initial moisture content only. For the linear shrinkage of cross-sectional dimensions, an additional parameter is required, which we estimate from comparison of the theory with experimental data from the literature. We proceed to combine our model of fibre shrinkage with probabilistic theory for fibre contacts in random fibrous networks to obtain a model for the unrestrained shrinkage of isotropic paper sheets. The expression obtained depends only on the moisture content of fibres and the extent of inter-fibre contact and exhibits good agreement with experimental data for laboratory-formed paper sheets. The results have relevance to the commercial manufacture of paper and potential for application to the study of cellulose nano-composites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Bayesian statistics was applied to a small sample database of the tensile properties of five different brands of writing paper which were perceptibly similar. The measured parameters in the database were found to overlap for the five brands. This posed a limitation to the application of the classical approach for “match” or “no match”. It was found that using Bayesian statistics for source correspondence, a mere 2–3 measurements corresponding to a particular brand raised the probabilities associated with that brand to as high a 72% and eliminating a couple of brands. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper, a vector-form factor graph representation is derived for intersymbol interference (ISI) channels. The resultant graphs have a tree-structure that avoids the short cycle problem in existing graph approaches. Based on a joint Gaussian approximation, we establish a connection between the LLR (log-likelihood ratio) estimator for a linear system driven by binary inputs and the LMMSE (linear minimum mean-square error) estimator for a linear system driven by Gaussian inputs. This connection facilitates the application of the recently proposed Gaussian message passing technique to the cycle-free graphs for ISI channels. We also show the equivalence between the proposed approach and the Wang-Poor approach based on the LMMSE principle. An attractive advantage of the proposed approach is its intrinsic parallel structure. Simulation results are provided to demonstrate this property. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The decisions of if and when to have a first child are very important for any woman or couple. This paper develops a model to examine when a woman should begin trying to conceive, which depends on the personal circumstances and values of each woman. The model incorporates separate objectives for a woman's professional, social, and family aspects of life and integrates them into a quality-of-life function that includes the changing relative importance of these aspects with age over a woman's life. Descriptions of the relative quality of each of these three aspects of a woman's life are modeled over time for different cases. One case involves no child and other cases involve the woman giving birth at different ages from 21 to 50. The probabilities of conceiving when trying, as a function of a woman's age, are included. The relative pros and cons of waiting until the late thirties to have a child to avoid perceived detrimental impacts on one's career or social life are investigated. Several illustrations are included in the paper to demonstrate insights that can be generated using the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces two-player bargaining problems allowing for asymmetric subjective uncertainty about factors that determine whether agreement is achieved, focusing on surprising events, i.e. events believed possible by only one player. A ‘subjective Nash’ solution is proposed, in which a bargaining outcome is defined as immune to all possible appeals given the subjective uncertainty of disagreement. In addition to Pareto optimality and independence of irrelevant alternatives, the main axiom in the solution characterization is ‘subjective symmetry’. The solution is shown to be equivalent to a specific, non-symmetric, Nash solution, with preference dependent weights that equal the subjective probability players assign to the intersection of their belief supports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent interest in the spatial structure and dynamics of populations motivated numerous theoretical and empirical studies of spatial synchrony, the tendency of populations to fluctuate in unison over regional areas. The first comprehensive framework applied to spatial synchrony was probably the one elaborated by P. A. P. Moran back in 1953. He suggested that if two populations have the same linear density-dependent structure, the correlation between them will be equal to that between the local density-independent conditions. Surprisingly, the consequences of violating the assumption that the dynamics of the populations are identical has received little attention. In this paper, making the assumption that population dynamics can be described by linear and stationary autoregressive processes, I show that the observed spatial synchrony between two populations can be decomposed into two multiplicative components: the demographic component depending on the values of the autoregressive coefficients, and the correlation of the environmental noise. The Moran theorem corresponds to the special case where the demographic component equals unity. Using published data, I show that the spatial variability in population dynamics may substantially contribute to the spatial variability of population synchrony, and thus should not be neglected in future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The present paper explores the notion that an important difference between prior operational definitions of “cue” or “heuristic” information versus “message argument” information has to do with differential processing difficulty, and relative ordinal position of these two information types. In previous work, “cue/heuristic” information typically differed from “message argument” information not only in its contents, but also in it being (1) briefer, and (2) presented prior to the message information. We find that it is relative brevity and ordinal position rather than contents that ultimately explain the differences in persuasive impact between “cue/heuristic” versus “message argument” information. In so far as both “cues” and “message arguments” can vary in brevity and order with which they are presented, these findings are consistent with the view that these two information types do not necessarily differ in their persuasive impact. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper we investigate the following question: if NP is slightly hard on average, is it very hard on average? We give a positive answer: if there is a function in NP which is infinitely often balanced and (1-1/poly(n))-hard for circuits of polynomial size, then there is a function in NP which is infinitely often (1/2+n-1/2+#x03B5;)-hard for circuits of polynomial size. Our proof technique is to generalize the Yao XOR Lemma, allowing us to characterize nearly tightly the hardness of a composite function g( f(x1),…,f(xn)) in terms of: (i) the original hardness of f, and (ii) the expected bias of the function g when subjected to random restrictions. The computational result we prove essentially matches an information-theoretic bound. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]