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With the aim of developing a fully coupled atmosphere-hydrology model system, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was enhanced by integrating a new set of hydrologic physics parameterizations accounting for lateral water flow occurring at the land surface. The WRF-Hydro modeling system was applied for a 3 year long simulation in the Crati River Basin (Southern Italy), where output from the fully coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro was compared to that provided by original WRF model. Prior to performing coupled land-atmosphere simulations, the stand-alone hydrological model ('uncoupled' WRF-Hydro) was calibrated through an automated procedure and validated using observed meteorological forcing and streamflow data, achieving a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency value of 0.80 for 1 year of simulation. Precipitation, runoff, soil moisture, deep drainage, and land surface heat fluxes were compared between WRF-only and WRF/WRF-Hydro simulations and validated additionally with ground-based observations, a FLUXNET site, and MODIS-derived LST. Since the main rain events in the study area are mostly dependent on the interactions between the atmosphere and the surrounding Mediterranean Sea, changes in precipitation between modeling experiments were modest. However, redistribution and reinfiltration of local infiltration excess produced higher soil moisture content, lower overall surface runoff, and higher drainage in the fully coupled model. Higher soil moisture values in WRF/WRF-Hydro slightly influenced precipitation and also increased latent heat fluxes. Overall, the fully coupled model tended to show better performance with respect to observed precipitation while allowing more water to circulate in the modeled regional water cycle thus, ultimately, modifying long-term hydrological processes at the land surface. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: A number of future water availability scenarios in the Crati River Basin (Southern Italy) are made by applying the outputs of three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) RegCM, HIRHAM and COSMO-CLM to the newly developed Intermediate Space Time Resolution Hydrological Model (In-STRHyM). In-STRHyM is a fully distributed hydrological model detailed enough to describe the hydrological processes of several small-medium sized Mediterranean basins. It has a relatively simple structure and is suitable for long period simulations to be undertaken within acceptable time frames. The analysis was performed using two time slices (1961–1990 and 2070–2099) with the SRES A2 (HAD3AM) and A1B (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) scenarios. Observed biases in simulated precipitation and temperature fields during the control period (1961–1990) were corrected before using meteorological outputs from each RCM as input for In-STRHyM. A sensitivity analysis is used to help verify this procedure. While hydrological model simulations are based on different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, GCMs, RCMs and bias correction parameters and hence show noticeable differences, they all agree on a general reduction in future water resource availability. An increase in the average annual temperature between +3.5°C and +3.9°C and a decrease between −9% and −21% in the cumulative annual precipitation are projected, leading to a drastic reduction in snow accumulation of between −82% and −92%. Evapotranspiration is expected to increase in the wintertime and decrease in summertime, with the water stress period increasing on average by 15days. Mean annual reductions are predicted for root zone soil moisture (between −12.8±1.9% and −20.7±1.9%, with reductions reaching −37.7±2.4% during summer), groundwater storage (−6.5±1.4% and −11.6±1.6%), surface runoff (−25.4±6.0% and −41.2±5.0%) and a significant increase in runoff variability. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]