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There is a range of problems in assessing how protection of a specific forest to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) affect global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper shows how knowledge and information about the biophysical characteristics of forests can be combined with theories of forest management and economic behaviour to derive the impacts on global emissions of REDD+. A modelling experiment from India, where 10% of the forest plantations in eight different regions are protected, shows that the biophysical characteristics of forests are decisive for the global impacts on emissions. In regions with slow-growing forests, agents in the non-protected forests are able to increase their output significantly to fill the demand from the protected forests. This opportunity is strictly limited in regions with fast-growing forests. Therefore, prices increase far more in regions with fast-growing forests than in slow-growing forests. Over time, the markets for Indian forestry products contribute to reduce the resulting price differences across regions. When the carbon uptake from protected forests approaches zero, the leakage of emissions to other Indian forests is between 20 and 40%. Only a small part of this is international leakage. Combining different models also helps to identify knowledge gaps, and to distinguish gaps that potentially may be filled with data and new knowledge, and gaps due to different angling of modelling biophysical processes and modelling of economic behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper combines available assessments on the impacts of climate change with climate projections from an earth system model to estimate the economic consequences for 15 sectors in 11 world regions. If the standard way of thinking about how economies work, the theory of market equilibrium, applies. The aim is to identify potential sources of conflicts between economic interests if the world succeeds in reducing emissions from a pathway with high emissions, where temperatures increase at around +6 °C in 2100 to a lower emission path, where the temperatures increase by +3 °C. Both pathways are recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as standard descriptions of anthropogenic drivers for climate modelling. It is difficult to identify conflicts between developed and developing regions, but conflicts between sector interests are apparent. Fossil fuel extracting industries lose by mitigation in all regions. Nearly all other sectors gain in all regions. The results also reveal potential conflicts between socioeconomic groups. The main challenges relate to conflicts of interest between generations. The present generation can commence on a transformation to low-carbon economies without notable economic consequences, but the next generation stands to lose, while generations beyond will clearly gain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents selected results of the interdisciplinary research project Impacts of extreme weather events on infrastructure in Norway (InfraRisk) carried out between 2010 to 2013, as part of the program NORKLIMA (2004 2013) of the Research Council of Norway (RCN). The project has systematized large amounts of existing data and generated new results that are important for our handling of risks associated with future extreme weather and natural hazards threatening the transport infrastructure in Norway. The results of the InfaRisk project range widely, from the establishment of trends in key weather elements to studies of human response to threats from extreme weather. The analyses of weather elements have provided a clearer understanding of the trends in the development of extreme weather. The studies are based on both historical data and available future scenarios (projections) from climate models. Compared to previous studies, we calculated changes in climate variables that are particularly important in relation to nature hazards. Overall, the analyses document an increase in frequency as well as intensity of both precipitation and wind. Results of projections show that the observed changes will continue throughout this century. We could also identify large regional differences, with some areas experiencing, e.g., a reduction in the intensity of heavy rainfall events. However, most of the country will experience the opposite, i.e., both increased intensity and increased frequency of heavy precipitation. Our analyses show that at least 27 per cent of Norwegian roads and 31 per cent of railroads are exposed to rock fall and snow avalanches hazards. The project has also assessed relationships between different parameters that can affect the likelihood of debris flows. Variables such as terrain slope and size of watercourses are important, while local climate, which varies widely in Norway, determines threshold values for rainfall that can trigger debris flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]