Search

International audience; Warm drylands represent 19% of land surfaces worldwide and host ca. 1100 tree species. The risk of decline due to climate aridification of this neglected biodiversity has been overlooked despite its ecological and societal importance. To fill this gap, we assessed the risk of decline due to climate aridification of tree species in warm drylands based on spatialized occurrence data and climate models. We considered both species vulnerability and exposure, compared the risk of tree species decline across five bioregions and searched for phylogenetic correlates. Depending on the future climate model, from 44% to 88% of warm drylands' tree species will undergo climate aridification with a high risk of decline even under the most optimistic conditions. On a regional scale, the rate of species that will undergo climate aridification in the future varies from 21% in the Old World North, to 90% in Australia, with a risk of decline confirming the high level of risk predicted at the global scale. Using generalized linear mixed models, we found that, species more exposed to climate aridification will be more at risk, but also that species vulnerability is a key driver of their risk of decline. Indeed, the warm drylands specialist species will be less at risk due to climate aridification than species being marginal in warm drylands. We also found that the risk of decline is widespread across the main clades of the phylogeny and involves several evolutionary distinct species. Estimating a high risk of decline for numerous tree species in all warm drylands, including emblematic dryland endemics, our work warns that future increase in aridity could result in an extensive erosion of tree biodiversity in these ecosystems

International audience; Drylands represent about 41% of Earth’s land area, host more than 1,500 tree species and support more than 20% of the world’s human population. Trees are key to the functioning of numerous dryland ecosystems and contribute to goods and services for many local humancommunities, but many are threatened by global changes. From this perspective, mapping tree species assemblages of drylands can provide valuable information for conservation. To our knowledge, warm drylands, including hot deserts, have never been subject to a comprehensivetree biodiversity analysis independent of administrative boundaries or pre-defined regions. Our study aimed to address this gap by redefining warm drylands based on climate data and delineating bioregions using tree species assemblages at the global scale. We based the analyseson aridity and temperature data and a co-occurrence network approach using more than 1,000 tree species.Our data are mined from the Desert Trees of the World database, the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database, and the African Plant Database. This new delimitation of warm drylands reveals eight bioregions, covering about 19% of Earth’s land area across all continents. These are: North America, two bioregions in South America, the southern Mediterranean Basin and Macaronesian islands, the Saharo-Sindian region and the Horn of Africa, Southern Africa, the Socotra archipelago, and Australia. These bioregions have very distinct treespecies assemblages, as well as high rates of endemism.This original diversity is found under a wide range of aridity conditions both within and between bioregions, offering the opportunity to anticipate different responses of tree assemblages face to future climate change among the world’s warm drylands. It will aid in conservation,restoration, and rehabilitation strategies involving the use of native trees among the most threatened regions worldwide.

Trees play a key role in the structure and function of many ecosystems worldwide. In the Mediterranean Basin, forests cover approximately 22% of the total land area hosting a large number of endemics (46 species). Despite its particularities and vulnerability, the biodiversity of Mediterranean trees is not well known at the taxonomic, spatial, functional, and genetic levels required for conservation applications. The WOODIV database fills this gap by providing reliable occurrences, four functional traits (plant height, seed mass, wood density, and specific leaf area), and sequences from three DNA-regions (rbcL, matK, and trnH-psbA), together with modelled occurrences and a phylogeny for all 210 Euro-Mediterranean tree species. We compiled, homogenized, and verified occurrence data from sparse datasets and collated them on an INSPIRE-compliant 10 × 10 km grid. We also gathered functional trait and genetic data, filling existing gaps where possible. The WOODIV database can benefit macroecological studies in the fields of conservation, biogeography, and community ecology.

International audience; Niche differentiation by spatial segregation facilitates the coexistence of species sharing ecological preferences, which can buffer the impact of biological invasions on native species. The introduction of two semi-aquatic rodents, the coypu Myocastor coypus and the muskrat Ondatra zibethicus, to most freshwater ecosystems across Western Europe, has been pinpointed as a cause for the decline of the southern water vole (SWV) Arvicola sapidus. We investigated the co-occurrence of these three species in a river catchment of northwest France and whether spatial habitat segregation took place at two spatial scales, using hierarchical modelling accounting for imperfect detection. At a large spatial scale (river catchment), the occupancy rate of the SWV was 0.52 +/- 0.06, i.e. noticeably smaller compared to coypu (0.58) and muskrat (0.80). We found no evidence of a negative effect of the presence of the two invasive rodents on SWV occurrence. At a smaller spatial scale (SWV home range), we found weak evidence of spatial segregation in habitat use with a negative, although not significant, effect of muskrat. Overall, our results suggest that riparian habitats in the study area allow the southern water vole to coexist with two larger invasive rodents, provided that hygrophytic vegetation is preserved alongside rivers

Background: Tree species represent 20% of the vascular plant species worldwide and they play a crucial role in the global functioning of the biosphere. The Mediterranean Basin is one of the 36 world biodiversity hotspots, and it is estimated that forests covered 82% of the landscape before the first human impacts, thousands of years ago. However, the spatial distribution of the Mediterranean biodiversity is still imperfectly known, and a focus on tree species constitutes a key issue for understanding forest functioning and develop conservation strategies. Methods: We provide the first comprehensive checklist of all native tree taxa (species and subspecies) present in the Mediterranean-European region (from Portugal to Cyprus). We identified some cases of woody species difficult to categorize as trees that we further called “cryptic trees”. We collected the occurrences of tree taxa by “administrative regions”, i.e. country or large island, and by biogeographical provinces. We studied the species-area relationship, and evaluated the conservation issues for threatened taxa following IUCN criteria. Results: We identified 245 tree taxa that included 210 species and 35 subspecies, belonging to 33 families and 64 genera. It included 46 endemic tree taxa (30 species and 16 subspecies), mainly distributed within a single biogeographical unit. The countries with the highest tree richness are Greece (146 taxa), Italy (133), Albania (122), Spain (155), Macedonia (116), and Croatia (110). The species-area relationship clearly discriminated the richest central-eastern (Balkans) and northern (Alpine and Cevenno-Pyrenean) biogeographical provinces, against the five western provinces in the Iberian Peninsula. We identified 44 unrecognized “cryptic trees”, representing 21% of the total trees. Among the 245 taxa identified, 19 are considered to be threatened (15 CR + EN + VU) or near threatened (4 NT) by IUCN. Conclusions: The Mediterranean-European region includes an unsuspectedly high number of tree taxa, almost 200 tree taxa more than in the central European region. This tree diversity is not distributed evenly and culminates in the central-eastern part of the Mediterranean region, whereas some large Tyrrhenian islands shelter several narrow endemic tree taxa. Few taxa are recognized as threatened in the IUCN Red list, and the vulnerability of these species is probably underestimated. French Foundation for Research on Biodiversity (FRB). Centre for Synthesis and Analysis of Biodiversity data ANR-11-LABX-0061

Aim: The Mediterranean Basin is a major hotspot of plant biodiversity, including forest trees. Over the past centuries, Mediterranean forests have been fragmented and over-exploited, to which the threats of climate change are now added. Our aim is to better understand patterns and processes of tree biodiversity in the Mediterranean and to provide indicators complementing the traditional approaches to biodiversity conservation based on species counts and occurrences, using georeferenced phylogenetic diversity and endemism analyses in a spatial ecological context. Location: Mediterranean Europe. Methods: Using a dated phylogeny of the 64 Euro-Mediterranean tree genera, we calculated phylogenetic diversity for all 50 × 50 km2 grid cells spanning Mediterranean Europe (n = 643) and compared values with those obtained for genus-level taxonomic diversity. Then, we tested the relative influence of geography, past and present climate, and soil on tree diversity (phylogenetic or taxonomic) and its geographical turnover. Geographical patterns of phylogenetic endemism were inferred using the Categorical Analyses of Neo- and Paleo-Endemism (CANAPE) methodology. Results: We showed that phylogenetic and taxonomic diversity within and among cells are correlated and influenced by soil parameters as well as current, Holocene and Late Glacial Maximum climate. Southern Spain, Cyprus and some Aegean islands contained areas of disproportionately high phylogenetic diversity and a concentration of phylogenetic paleo-endemics, while phylogenetic neo-endemism was high in eastern Sicily. Mixed phylogenetic endemism regions were detected in southern Spain and Portugal, in the Balkans and in Crete. Main conclusions: Our phylogenetic approach provides relevant indicators for better protecting forests of the Mediterranean, encompassing past and present evolutionary processes and factors. We consider areas that show a concentration of evolutionary history manifested by high phylogenetic endemism as high priority targets for the conservation of the European tree flora. Aix-Marseille University ANR-11-LABX-0061

International audience; Adopting a multifaceted approach of biodiversity is believed to capture different aspects of the ecosystem functioning and it is thus advised for conservation prioritisation, especially for anthropogenic ecosystems but this key topic has never been conducted for the Mediterranean tree assemblages, despite their ecological importance. We explored how the multi-faceted diversity of woody plant assemblages, as measured by taxonomic (TD), functional (FD) and phylogenetic (PD) diversities, are distributed over space in the French part of the Mediterranean biome, and to which extend they are spatially correlated to each other, in order to understand whether one facet can be used as a proxy for another, especially for conservation management purposes. We analysed data from 5885 plots over the study area. We estimated several FD types by considering separately (i) regeneration, (ii) morphology traits (iii) modalities on species ecological properties, and finally (iv) considering all traits together. We used the Rao quadratic entropy to estimate the TD, FD and PD diversity facets. We tested for the links and spatial correlation (congruence) levels among these facets, using simultaneous au-toregressive (SAR) models and partial Mantel tests. Spatial structure varied among diversity facets and spatial autocorrelation patterns were identified for all diversity indices from 30 to 50 km distances. We observed a functional convergence and a phylogenetic divergence within tree assemblages comparing to the ones expected given the regional species pool, indicating that even in tree communities with functional similarities, phylogenetic diversity may be high. PD was zero to slightly congruent to FD, regardless the type of functional traits considered. The highest SAR slope (=0.3) and partial Mantel test (=0.2) were revealed between the PD and the FD based on species morphological traits, but still remained considerably low. Each one of the diversity indicators reflected a different tree community spatial pattern. Functional diversity patterns varied according to the type of traits considered. Using only taxonomic indices may be misleading for responding to Mediterranean tree assemblages conservation needs and additional information about the species phylogeny and functional responses to disturbance pressures should be considered in large scale analyses.

Dens are important for species that need to survive and reproduce during harsh winters. Brown bears (Ursus arctos) in Romania, listed by the European Union as a population of concern, use dens for several months each year. To date, few quantitative assessments of denning habitat have been carried out for this population or others in Europe. In 2008–2013 and 2015–2017, we used local knowledge and telemetry data from brown bears fitted with GPS collars to identify 115 winter dens and eight open ground nests used by bears in eastern Transylvania, Romania. We located most dens in mountainous areas (64%) and fewer in foothills (36%). Den entrances in mountainous areas were significantly narrower than entrances in foothills, likely due to the need for reduced thermal loss during more severe winters at higher elevations. We selected seven habitat characteristics (abiotic and biotic) and human-related covariates associated with known locations of dens and open nests to identify potential brown bear denning habitat using maximum entropy modeling. We found that terrain ruggedness was the single most important factor when predicting bear denning habitat. The habitat map derived from this study can be used in the future to safeguard bear denning areas from potential human disturbances.

International audience; Scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) are key for decision-makers to understand the consequences of future environmental change on BES. Though a major driver of terrestrial biodiversity loss, land use and land cover changes (LUCC) have been largely overlooked in previous BES assessments. But ecologists lack practical guidance for the general use of LUCC projections. We review the practices in use in LUCC-driven BES assessments and summarize the questions ecologists should address before using LUCC projections. LUCC-driven BES scenarios rely on a substantial set of different socioeconomic storylines (> 200 for 166 papers). Studies explore different futures, but generally concentrate on projections obtained from a single LUCC model. The rationale regarding time horizon, spatial resolution, or the set of storylines used is rarely made explicit. This huge heterogeneity and low transparency regarding the what, why, and how of using LUCC projections for the study of BES futures could discourage researchers from engaging in the design of such biodiversity scenarios. Our results call on those using LUCC projections to more systematically report on the choices they make when designing LUCC-based BES scenarios (e.g. time horizon, spatial and thematic resolutions, scope of contrasted futures). Beyond the improvement of reliability, reproducibility, and comparability of these scenarios, this could also greatly benefit others wanting to use the same LUCC projections, and help land use modellers better meet the needs of their intended audiences. The uncertainties in LUCC-driven BES futures should also be explored more comprehensively, including different socioeconomic storylines and different LUCC models, as recommended in studies dealing with climate-driven BES futures.

International audience; We produced the first time-calibrated phylogeny of all 64 native tree genera occurring on the European side of the Mediterranean Basin. This phylogeny is based on 3 plastid DNA sequences (rbcL matK and trnH-psbA), 4 recognized fossil dates and 10 secondary calibrations. Based on the inferred topology, we then tested whether the investigated tree flora exhibits phylogenetic clustering in both life-history traits known to influence reproduction and species' vulnerability to extinction. Our topology and the estimated dates mostly conform to published partial phylogenies and are highly congruent with the Angiosperm Phylogeny Group classification except for some minor incongruences including the still debated phylogenetic position of Magnoliids. The four strictly endemic genera of the Mediterranean Basin (Chamaerops, Phillyrea, Spartium and Tetraclinis) all showed emergence dates (11-72 Ma) long before the onset of the Mediterranean climate. We did not find any imprints of phylogenetic sorting processes on the life-history traits we studied, except for the mode of seed dispersal, which showed a clustered distribution across our topology. The presence of species at risk of potential extinction within a given genus was randomly distributed along the phylogenetic tree. Species with deficient data were significantly nested within a few of the most recently evolved angiosperm genera. Our analysis closes knowledge gaps and provides a valuable basis for studying the biogeo-graphical and ecological processes that have generated the Mediterranean tree flora. It can also inform conservation planning strategies that aim at broadening traditional taxonomy-focused perspectives with components of evolutionary history and phylogenetic singularity.

International audience; The simultaneous application of species distribution modelling (SDM) and study of genetic imprints left by range dynamics is appropriate when examining the biogeographical processes that have favoured the survival of plants through past climate changes. Nevertheless, such an approach is rarely performed on the scale of the entire Mediterranean and almost never concerns widespread thermophilous plants. Here, we examine the biogeographical responses of an important Mediterranean shrub, Myrtus communis (Myrtaceae), to severe Quaternary climate conditions. Our analysis combines SDM and phylogeography based on plastid/nuclear DNA sequences and AFLP data. Palaeoclimatic models using MaxEnt and levels of genetic diversity in M. communis are used to infer drastic changes in areas of climatic suitability during the last 130000 years, with a southward range contraction during the Last Glacial Maximum. Modelling of past areas of suitability for M. communis identifies a few relatively small long-term refugia, suggesting that it survived in temporary refugia during glacial periods. Myrtus communis is characterized by a higher genetic diversity and distinctiveness in the southern part of its range, where it was less impacted by glaciations. The structure of genetic diversity reveals stronger range expansions in the western part of the range, whereas migration processes remained much more restricted in the eastern Mediterranean.

International audience; Coastal urban expansion will continue to drive further biodiversity losses, if conservation targets for coastal ecosystems are not defined and met. Prioritizing areas for future protected area networks is thus an urgent task in such urbanization-threatened ecosystems. Our aim is to quantify past and future losses of coastal vegetation priority areas due to urbanization and assess the effectiveness of the existing protected area network for conservation. We conduct a prioritization analysis, based on 82 coastal plants, including common and IUCN red list species, in a highly-urbanized but biotically diverse region, in South-Eastern France. We evaluate the role of protected areas, by taking into account both strict and multi-use areas. We assess the impact of past and future urbanization on high priority areas, by combining prioritization analyses and urbanization models. We show that half of the highly diverse areas have already been lost due to urbanization. Remaining top priority areas are also among the most exposed to future urban expansion. The effectiveness of the existing protected area (PA) network is only partial. While strict PAs coincide well with top priority areas, they only represent less than one third of priority areas. The effectiveness of multi-use PAs, such as the Natura 2000 network, also remains limited. Our approach highlights the impact of urbanization on plant conservation targets. By modelling urbanization, we manage to identify those areas where protection could be more efficient to limit further losses. We suggest to use our approach in the future to expand the PA network in order to achieve the 2020 Aichi biodiversity targets.

International audience; Species occurrence data provide crucial information for biodiversity studies in the current context of global environmental changes. Such studies often rely on a limited number of occurrence data collected in the field and on pseudo-absences arbitrarily chosen within the study area, which reduces the value of these studies. To overcome this issue, we propose an alternative method of prospection using geo-located street view imagery (SVI). Following a standardised protocol of virtual prospection using both vertical (aerial photographs) and horizontal (SVI) perceptions, we have surveyed 1097 randomly selected cells across Spain (0.1x0.1 degree, i.e. 20% of Spain) for the presence of Arundo donax L. (Poaceae). In total we have detected A. donax in 345 cells, thus substantially expanding beyond the now two-centuries-old field-derived record, which described A. donax only 216 cells. Among the field occurrence cells, 81.1% were confirmed by SVI prospection to be consistent with species presence. In addition, we recorded, by SVI prospection, 752 absences, i.e. cells where A. donax was considered absent. We have also compared the outcomes of climatic niche modeling based on SVI data against those based on field data. Using generalized linear models fitted with bioclimatic predictors, we have found SVI data to provide far more compelling results in terms of niche modeling than does field data as classically used in SDM. This original, cost-and time-effective method provides the means to accurately locate highly visible taxa, reinforce absence data, and predict species distribution without long and expensive in situ prospection. At this time, the majority of available SVI data is restricted to human-disturbed environments that have road networks. However, SVI is becoming increasingly available in natural areas, which means the technique has considerable potential to become an important factor in future biodiversity studies.

Summary 1. Gridded climatologies have become an indispensable component of bioclimatic modelling, with a range of applications spanning conservation and pest management. Such globally conformal data sets of historical and future scenario climate surfaces are required to model species potential ranges under current and future climate scenarios. 2. We developed a set of interpolated climate surfaces at 10¢ and 30¢ resolution for global land areas excluding Antarctica. Input data for the baseline climatology were gathered from the WorldClim and CRU CL1AE0 and CL2AE0 data sets. A set of future climate scenarios were generated at 10¢ resolution. For each of the historical and future scenario data sets, the full set of 35 Bioclim variables was generated. Climate variables (including relative humidity at 0900 and 1500 hours) were also gener

Biosecurity agencies are particularly concerned to know the potential distribution of invasive alien species under present, and to a lesser extent, future climates; expensive decisions can hinge upon the degree of perceived threat a pest species poses. Climate-based niche modelling techniques are available to inform these decisions. These tools now regularly employ gridded climate datasets of moderate spatial resolution (0.5 degree), though biosecurity decision-makers continually seek greater spatial precision in the risk map products. Various splining techniques are capable of generating gridded climate datasets approaching the precision limits imposed by the availability of digital elevation model data. As the spatial precision of climate datasets increases, more detailed effects of topographic relief become apparent in the climatic data. When these datasets are used to develop and apply species niche models, the climate data is spatially intersected with species location data to infer relationships between the climate and the species' geographic distribution. Here we investigate the effect of changing climate precision on projections of species' niche models developed with CLIMEX, including the effect of upscaling and downscaling the outputs. We found that there were noticeable increases in sensitivity in models developed using more precise climate datasets. The largest differences in projections were noted where species range limits coincided with regions of strong climatic gradients such as where there was marked topographic relief in relation to the spatial precision of the climatic dataset. Upscaling (fitting a model with a fine resolution dataset and then projecting the results with a coarser grid), tended to produce smaller potential ranges for a species, albeit at the cost of model sensitivity. Downscaling had the opposite effect, identifying additional, mostly marginally climatically suitable habitat. It remains unclear how sensitive the fine resolution results are to the number and spatial arrangement of input location records used to build the model. The results indicate some benefits of improving the spatial resolution of climate datasets, though not at the expense of climatic data accuracy. Decision-makers should be mindful of the inherent uncertainties in these models, and modellers have a responsibility to identify and convey these uncertainties to their intended audience.

International audience; Modelling moth dispersal in relation to wind direction and strength could greatly enhance the role of pheromone traps in biosecurity and pest management applications. Anemotaxis theory, which describes moth behaviour in the presence of a pheromone plume and is used as a framework for such models. Currently, however, that theory includes only three components: upwind, zigzagging, and sideways casting behaviour. We test anemotaxis theory by analysing the data from a series of mark– release–recapture experiments where the wind direction was known and the insects were trapped using an irregular grid of pheromone traps. The trapping results provide evidence of a downwind component to the flight patterns of the released insects. This active or passive downwind dispersal is likely to be an appetitive behaviour, occurring prior to the elicitation of pheromone-oriented flight patterns (pheromone anemotaxis). Given the potential for significant displacement during down-wind dispersal, this component will have impact on final trap captures and should be considered when constructing moth dispersal models.

A CLIMEX model of the Oriental fruit fly (OFF) indicates that under the reference climate (19611990) OFF could persist throughout most of the central Pacific In New Zealand it could establish throughout much of the lowlying areas of the North Island and much of New Zealand could support shortterm populations during the summer months Climate change scenarios for the 2080s indicate that in the central Pacific the change in potential distribution is relatively minor However parts of New Zealand could become substantially more climatically suitable increasing the likelihood of successful establishment of OFF after an incursion and seriously threatening the horticultural sector Should OFF become established in New Zealand it is likely to follow any expansion of the horticultural sector into the coastal areas of the eastern part of the South Island as far south as Oamaru

International audience; Background and Aims: The hypothesis of an ancient introduction, i.e. archaeophyte origin, is one of the most challenging questions in phylogeography. Arundo donax (Poaceae) is currently considered to be one of the worst invasive species globally, but it has also been widely utilzed by man across Eurasia for millennia. Despite a lack of phylogenetic data, recent literature has often speculated on its introduction to the Mediterranean region.Methods: This study tests the hypothesis of its ancient introduction from Asia to the Mediterranean by using plastid DNA sequencing and morphometric analysis on 127 herbarium specimens collected across sub-tropical Eurasia. In addition, a bioclimatic species distribution model calibrated on 1221 Mediterranean localities was used to identify similar ecological niches in Asia.Key Results: Despite analysis of several plastid DNA hypervariable sites and the identification of 13 haplotypes, A. donax was represented by a single haplotype from the Mediterranean to the Middle East. This haplotype is shared with invasive samples worldwide, and its nearest phylogenetic relatives are located in the Middle East. Morphometric data characterized this invasive clone by a robust morphotype distinguishable from all other Asian samples. The ecological niche modelling designated the southern Caspian Sea, southern Iran and the Indus Valley as the most suitable regions of origin in Asia for the invasive clone of A. donax.Conclusions: Using an integrative approach, an ancient dispersion of this robust, polyploid and non-fruiting clone is hypothesized from the Middle East to the west, leading to its invasion throughout the Mediterranean Basin.

International audience; Puccinia psidii sensu lato (s.l.) is an invasive rust fungus threatening a wide range of plant species in the family Myrtaceae. Originating from Central and South America, it has invaded mainland USA and Hawai'i, parts of Asia and Australia. We used CLIMEX to develop a semi-mechanistic global climatic niche model based on new data on the distribution and biology of P. psidii s.l. The model was validated using independent distribution data from recently invaded areas in Australia, China and Japan. We combined this model with distribution data of its potential Myrtaceae host plant species present in Australia to identify areas and ecosystems most at risk. Myrtaceaeous species richness, threatened Myrtaceae and eucalypt plantations within the climatically suitable envelope for P. psidii s.l in Australia were mapped. Globally the model identifies climatically suitable areas for P. psidii s.l. throughout the wet tropics and sub-tropics where moist conditions with moderate temperatures prevail, and also into some cool regions with a mild Mediterranean climate. In Australia, the map of species richness of Myrtaceae within the P. psidii s.l. climatic envelope shows areas where epidemics are hypothetically more likely to be frequent and severe. These hotspots for epidemics are along the eastern coast of New South Wales, including the Sydney Basin, in the Brisbane and Cairns areas in Queensland, and in the coastal region from the south of Bunbury to Esperance in Western Australia. This new climatic niche model for P. psidii s.l. indicates a higher degree of cold tolerance; and hence a potential range that extends into higher altitudes and latitudes than has been indicated previously. The methods demonstrated here provide some insight into the impacts an invasive species might have within its climatically suited range, and can help inform biosecurity policies regarding the management of its spread and protection of valued threatened assets.

International audience; Biosecurity agencies need robust bioeconomic tools to help inform policy and allocate scarce management resources. They need to estimate the potential for each invasive alien species (IAS) to create negative impacts, so that relative and absolute comparisons can be made. Using pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa sensu lato) as an example, these needs were met by combining species niche modelling, dispersal modelling, host impact and economic modelling. Within its native range (the Mediterranean Basin and adjacent areas), T. pityocampa causes significant defoliation of pines and serious urticating injuries to humans. Such severe impacts overseas have fuelled concerns about its potential impacts, should it be introduced to New Zealand. A stochastic bioeconomic model was used to estimate the impact of PPM invasion in terms of pine production value lost due to a hypothetical invasion of New Zealand by T. pityocampa. The bioeconomic model combines a semi-mechanistic niche model to develop a climate-related damage function, a climate-related forest growth model, and a stochastic spread model to estimate the present value (PV) of an invasion. Simulated invasions indicate that Thaumetopoea pityocampa could reduce New Zealand’s merchantable and total pine stem volume production by 30%, reducing forest production by between NZ$1,550 M to NZ$2,560 M if left untreated. Where T. pityocampa is controlled using aerial application of an insecticide, projected losses in PV were reduced, but still significant (NZ$30 M to NZ$2,210 M). The PV estimates were more sensitive to the efficacy of the spray program than the potential rate of spread of the moth. Our novel bioeconomic method provides a refined means of estimating potential impacts of invasive alien species, taking into account climatic effects on asset values, the potential for pest impacts, and pest spread rates.

This paper focuses on the spatial pattern of the shoot density of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica through kriging methods. Kriging is a group of geostatistical techniques to predict the value of a field at an unobserved location from observations of its value at nearby locations. The results of an ordinary kriging of both raw values of shoot density and normalized shoot density with reference to a density vs. depth model (Dn) were compared. Results confirmed the existence of spatially organized parameters other than depth that influence patterns of P. oceanica shoot density. Although still requiring additional testing for complete validation, Dn mapping appears to be a valuable tool to (1) infer causes for the meadow's condition and to design a cost-effective field survey; (2) define areas where protection policies should be undertaken.

There are presently few tools available for estimating epidemic risks from forest pathogens, and hence informing pro-active disease management. In this study we demonstrated that a bioclimatic niche model can be used to examine questions of epidemic risk in temperate eucalypt plantations. The bioclimatic niche model, CLIMEX, was used to identify regional variation in climate suitability for Mycosphaerella leaf disease (MLD), a major cause of foliage damage in temperate eucalypt plantations around the world. Using historical observations of MLD damage, we were able to convert the relative score of climatic suitability generated by CLIMEX into a severity ranking ranging from low to high, providing for the first time a direct link between risk and impact, and allowing us to explore disease severity in a way meaningful to forest managers. We determined that the ‘Compare Years’ function in CLIMEX could be used for site-specific risk assessment to identify severity, frequency and seasonality of MLD epidemics. We explored appropriate scales of risk assessment for forest managers. Applying the CLIMEX model of MLD using a 0.25° or coarser grid size to areas of sharp topographic relief frequently misrepresented the risk posed by MLD, because considerable variation occurred between individual forest sites encompassed within a single grid cell. This highlighted the need for site-specific risk assessment to address many questions pertinent to managing risk in plantations.

We examined the impacts of a defoliating pest, Mycosphaerella leaf disease (MLD), on rotation-length Eucalyptus globulus plantation productivity under current and future climates by using the ecoclimatic species niche model CLIMEX to generate severity, frequency and seasonality scenarios for MLD for specific E. globulus sites. These scenarios were used as inputs to the process-based forest productivity model CABALA. Climate projections from two global climate models were used to drive CABALA with either no or full acclimation of photosynthesis to elevated atmospheric CO 2 assumed. In addition we varied water and nitrogen availability to examine the impacts of different severities of MLD on plantation productivity across environmental gradients. We predicted that, under current climatic conditions, rotation-length reductions in V associated with MLD damage would be no greater than 12%, with an across-site average of 6%. There was considerable between-site variation in predictions that reflected variation in site productivity. Under future climates, we predicted that MLD may reduce rotation length V by as much as 42%, although the reduction averaged across all sites was 11%. The predicted impact of MLD on V was greatest at lower productivity sites. The importance of N and water availability in recovery following MLD attack was highlighted. Uncertainty in model predictions revolved around the climate models used and assumptions of degree of photosynthetic acclimation to elevated CO 2 . Large differences in predicted impact of MLD were associated with this uncertainty. Our results suggest that the effects of defoliation due to pests on plantation productivity should not be ignored when considering future management of forest plantations. The approach developed here provides managers with a tool to appraise risk and examine possible impacts of management interventions designed to reduce or manage risk.

The risks and benefits associated with efforts to control invasive alien species using classical biological control are being subjected to increasing scrutiny. A process-based population dynamics model was developed to explore the interactions between a folivorous biological control agent, Cleopus japonicus, and its plant host Buddleja davidii. The model revealed that climate could have a significant impact upon the interactions between B. davidii and C. japonicus. At the coolest sites, the impact of C. japonicus on B. davidii was slowed, but it was still eventually capable of controlling populations of B. davidii. At the warmer sites where both B. davidii and C. japonicus grew faster, B. davidii succumbed rapidly to weevil damage. We hypothesise that barring an encounter with a natural enemy, C. japonicus will eventually be able to provide sustained control B. davidii throughout the North Island of New Zealand. The model scenarios illustrate the potential for the C. japonicus population to attain high densities rapidly, and to defoliate patches of B. davidii, creating the potential for spill-over feeding on non-target plants. The potential magnitude of this threat will depend partly on the climate suitability for C. japonicus, the pattern by which it migrates in response to a reduction in the available leaf resource, and the suitability of non-target plants as hosts. In all migration scenarios considered, the pattern of population growth and resource consumption by C. japonicus was exponential, with a strong tendency toward complete utilisation of resource patches more quickly at the warmer compared to colder sites. In addition to providing some useful hypotheses about the effects of climate on the biological control system, and the non-target risks, it also provides some insight into the mechanisms by which climate affects the system.

Summary Cytisus scoparius is a serious weed of pastoral systems, natural ecosystems and plantation forestry, which has become invasive in a number of countries. CLIMEX™ was used to infer the climatic requirements of C. scoparius from its native range, as well as its current range as an exotic in the United States and New Zealand. The parameterised model was used to examine the invasive potential of C. scoparius under current and future climatic conditions, assuming a range of climate-change scenarios. The modelled global potential distribution of C. scoparius compared favourably with the known distributions, in both the fitted and validation dataset, encompassing almost all temperate and Mediterranean regions. The predicted distribution also included most sub-tropical regions and extended into continental areas in North America and Europe and savanna regions in Africa. Under current climate, the projected potential distribution exceeded the known distribution. Places most at risk from range expansion include China, Australia, Argentina and North America, as C. scoparius is already present, but has not yet colonised all areas with apparently high climatic suitability. Climate change is likely to lead to a poleward shift in the range of C. scoparius and a contraction of areas of suitable climate for the species in southern Europe, central Africa, Australia, China, Brazil and the southern United States. With climate change, currently uncolonised areas within northern Scandinavia, southern Canada and western regions of the Russian Federation are projected to become climatically suitable.

Dothistroma needle blight, one of the most important foliar diseases of Pinus spp., is caused primarily by the fungus Dothistroma septosporum (Dorog.) Morelet, and to a lesser extent by Dothistroma pini Hulbary. The potential distribution and abundance of Dothistroma spp. was determined by (i) developing a process-oriented model of potential distribution of Dothistroma spp. from known locations, (ii) compiling a comprehensive list of susceptible host species from existing scientific literature and (iii) determining the distribution of susceptible hosts in areas predicted to be suitable for range expansion of Dothistroma spp. Using these three sources of information regions at risk were identified as those that were predicted to be suitable for range expansion by Dothistroma spp. and included significant areas of susceptible host species. The process-oriented distribution model, CLIMEX was used to infer the climatic requirements of Dothistroma spp. from laboratory based measurements and 248 disease records in North America and Asia. When validated against 7594 disease observations from Europe, Africa, South America and Oceania, the model correctly predicted that all observations had a suitable climate for Dothistroma spp. The model indicated that the fungi can persist in climates ranging from sub-arctic through temperate, Mediterranean, continental, subtropical to dry tropical regions. The low level of disease detection in many regions projected to be climatically suitable may be due to the low occurrence of susceptible hosts. When areas that were not suitable for susceptible hosts were excluded results suggest that Dothistroma spp. could further extend their range into south east China, Vietnam, Ireland, Western Australia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, Panama, Turkey, Albania and many countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea.

The oriental fruit fly,Bactrocera dorsalis(Hendel), is a major pest throughout South East Asia and in a number of Pacific Islands. As a result of their widespread distribution, pest status, invasive ability and potential impact on market access,B. dorsalisand many other fruit fly species are considered major threats to many countries. CLIMEX™ was used to model the potential global distribution ofB. dorsalisunder current and future climate scenarios. Under current climatic conditions, its projected potential distribution includes much of the tropics and subtropics and extends into warm temperate areas such as southern Mediterranean Europe. The model projects optimal climatic conditions forB. dorsalisin the south-eastern USA, where the principle range-limiting factor is likely to be cold stress. As a result of climate change, the potential global range forB. dorsalisis projected to extend further polewards as cold stress boundaries recede. However, the potential range contracts in areas where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially. The significant increases in the potential distribution ofB. dorsalisprojected under the climate change scenarios suggest that the World Trade Organization should allow biosecurity authorities to consider the effects of climate change when undertaking pest risk assessments. One of the most significant areas of uncertainty in climate change concerns the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results are provided that span the range of standard Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios. The impact on the projected distribution ofB. dorsalisis striking, but affects the relative abundance of the fly within the total suitable range more than the total area of climatically suitable habitat.

Despite the fact that coverage is one of the most widely used descriptors for seagrass meadows, the spatial structure of coverage at mesoscale has not often been taken into account. The present work investigates the structure of P. oceanica coverage at mesoscale and its possible relationship with several factors (depth, type of substrate, relative level within the meadow, type of shoot density and level of anthropic pressure). Five classes of coverage structure are delineated within P. oceanica meadows and statistical analysis of the data did not provide evidence of a link with the factors taken into consideration. This result could be explained by the prevailing role of endogenic processes in the structuring of the P. oceanica meadow. To cite this article: A. Leriche et al., C. R. Biologies 329 (2006).

The Bay of Saint-Cyr (Provence, France, Mediterranean Sea) is the site of two harbours, coastal urban development, trawling, boat anchoring and a sewage outfall. The Posidonia oceanica seagrass distribution was mapped with the help of aerial photographs, side scan sonar and GIS. In addition, the temporal variations of its distribution were studied by aerial photographs and GIS from 1955 to 2000. Finally, coverage and shoot density were measured via scuba-diving. This work reveals (i) the regression of theP. oceanica meadow at sites where harbours have been built, (ii) the occurrence of spaces within the meadow free of live P. oceanica (‘‘intermattes’’), which account for 8% of its surface area, (iii) a deep area where P. oceanica coverage and shoot density are low and (iv) evidence of regression, although modest, of the meadow at its lower limit. Nevertheless, the study site also exhibits an extensive and on the whole relatively healthy meadow whose limits have changed little over time. # 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The response of Posidonia oceanica(Linnaeus) Delile to the warm-water episode of summer 1999 was studied by means of the technique of lepidochronology. Study sites include three sites affected by the mass mortality event of benthic invertebrates and one not affected. The results showed a significant decline in some parameters (number of leaves and/or rhizome growth) for the three sites affected by the mass mortality event for the year following the warm-water episode (1999–2000). A similar decline was not observed for the unaffected site. The fact that high temperatures could have a negative impact on deep Posidonia oceanica near its cold limit of distribution is an unexpected result. To cite this article: N. Mayot et al., C. R. Biologies 328 (2005).

To assess the dynamics of seagrass beds, it is necessary to be able to compare their present day and former distribution patterns. In most cases, ancient data are available in the form of maps whose reliability must be estimated before comparison. In the study area (near Marseilles, France), a series of maps of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica beds spanning more than one century (dating from 1883, 1897, 1958, 1975, 1979, 1991 and 2000, respectively) are available. In addition, a new map was established, using aerial photography (shallow areas), side scan sonar (deeper areas) and data validation by ground truth. In order to help assess the value of the ancient maps, a Reliability Index (RI) is proposed. The RI, rated from 0 to 50, weighs three parameters: (i) the initial scale of the map (source map) and the working scale (target map); (ii) the method of data acquisition (e.g. dredges, grabs, aerial photography, side scan sonar, scuba diving); and (iii) the method of data georeferencing. Dramatic differences in the distribution of seagrass beds are apparent between the eight maps. In view of the biological features of P. oceanica (e.g. slow rate of change of the meadow limits under natural conditions and the persistence of rhizomes after its death), it is possible that some of these differences may not reflect change over time but may be due to errors in the ancient maps. In contrast, other differences are plausible and validated by field data, e.g. the regression of the lower limit of the meadow. It was thus possible to compare the calculated RI for each map and the plausibility of observed differences as a basis for calibrating the RI. 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.