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The United States national forest inventory (NFI) serves as the foundation for forest aboveground biomass (AGB) and carbon accounting across the nation. These data enable design-based estimates of forest carbon stocks and stock-changes at state and regional levels, but also serve as inputs to model-based approaches for characterizing forest carbon stocks and stock-changes at finer resolutions. Although NFI tree and plot-level data are often treated as truth in these models, they are in fact estimates based on regional species-group models known collectively as the Component Ratio Method (CRM). In late 2023 the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program introduced a new National Scale Volume and Biomass Estimators (NSVB) system to replace CRM nationwide and offer more precise and accurate representations of forest AGB and carbon. Given the prevalence of model-based AGB studies relying on FIA, there is concern about the transferability of methods from CRM to NSVB models, as well as the comparability of existing CRM AGB products (e.g. maps) to new and forthcoming NSVB AGB products. To begin addressing these concerns we compared previously published CRM AGB maps to new maps produced using identical methods with NSVB AGB reference data. Our results suggest that models relying on passive satellite imagery (e.g. Landsat) provide acceptable estimates of point-in-time NSVB AGB and carbon stocks, but fail to accurately quantify growth in mature closed-canopy forests. We highlight that existing estimates, models, and maps based on FIA reference data are no longer compatible with NSVB, and recommend new methods as well as updated models and maps for accommodating this step-change. Our collective ability to adopt NSVB in our modeling and mapping workflows will help us provide the most accurate spatial forest carbon data possible in order to better inform local management and decision making., Comment: Manuscript: 16 pages, 7 figures; Supplements: 3 pages, 2 figures; Submitted to: Remote Sensing of Environment

Understanding historical forest dynamics, specifically changes in forest biomass and carbon stocks, has become critical for assessing current forest climate benefits and projecting future benefits under various policy, regulatory, and stewardship scenarios. Carbon accounting frameworks based exclusively on national forest inventories are limited to broad-scale estimates, but model-based approaches that combine these inventories with remotely sensed data can yield contiguous fine-resolution maps of forest biomass and carbon stocks across landscapes over time. Here we describe a fundamental step in building a map-based stock-change framework: mapping historical forest biomass at fine temporal and spatial resolution (annual, 30m) across all of New York State (USA) from 1990 to 2019, using freely available data and open-source tools. Using Landsat imagery, US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data, and off-the-shelf LiDAR collections we developed three modeling approaches for mapping historical forest aboveground biomass (AGB): training on FIA plot-level AGB estimates (direct), training on LiDAR-derived AGB maps (indirect), and an ensemble averaging predictions from the direct and indirect models. Model prediction surfaces (maps) were tested against FIA estimates at multiple scales. All three approaches produced viable outputs, yet tradeoffs were evident in terms of model complexity, map accuracy, saturation, and fine-scale pattern representation. The resulting map products can help identify where, when, and how forest carbon stocks are changing as a result of both anthropogenic and natural drivers alike. These products can thus serve as inputs to a wide range of applications including stock-change assessments, monitoring reporting and verification frameworks, and prioritizing parcels for protection or enrollment in improved management programs., Comment: Manuscript: 24 pages, 7 figures; Supplements: 12 pages, 5 figures; Submitted to Forest Ecology and Management

Evaluating models fit to data with internal spatial structure requires specific cross-validation (CV) approaches, because randomly selecting assessment data may produce assessment sets that are not truly independent of data used to train the model. Many spatial CV methodologies have been proposed to address this by forcing models to extrapolate spatially when predicting the assessment set. However, to date there exists little guidance on which methods yield the most accurate estimates of model performance. We conducted simulations to compare model performance estimates produced by five common CV methods fit to spatially structured data. We found spatial CV approaches generally improved upon resubstitution and V-fold CV estimates, particularly when approaches which combined assessment sets of spatially conjunct observations with spatial exclusion buffers. To facilitate use of these techniques, we introduce the `spatialsample` package which provides tooling for performing spatial CV as part of the broader tidymodels modeling framework., Comment: 18 pages, 6 figures, 5 tables. Submitted to Environmental Modelling & Software

Estimating forest AGB at large scales and fine spatial resolutions has become increasingly important for greenhouse gas accounting, monitoring, and verification efforts to mitigate climate change. Airborne LiDAR is highly valuable for modeling attributes of forest structure including AGB, yet most LiDAR collections take place at local or regional scales covering irregular, non-contiguous footprints, resulting in a patchwork of different landscape segments at various points in time. Here, as part of a statewide forest carbon assessment for New York State (USA), we addressed common obstacles in leveraging a LiDAR patchwork for AGB mapping at landscape scales, including selection of training data, the investigation of regional or coverage specific patterns in prediction error, and map agreement with field inventory across multiple scales. Three machine learning algorithms and an ensemble model were trained with FIA field measurements, airborne LiDAR, and topographic, climatic and cadastral geodata. Using a strict set of plot selection criteria, 801 FIA plots were selected with co-located point clouds drawn from a patchwork of 17 leaf-off LiDAR coverages (2014-2019). Our ensemble model was used to produce 30 m AGB prediction surfaces within a predictor-defined area of applicability (98% of LiDAR coverage), and the resulting AGB maps were compared with FIA plot-level and areal estimates at multiple scales of aggregation. Our model was overall accurate (% RMSE 22-45%; MAE 11.6-29.4 Mg ha$^{-1}$; ME 2.4-6.3 Mg ha$^{-1}$), explained 73-80% of field-observed variation, and yielded estimates that were consistent with FIA's design-based estimates (89% of estimates within FIA's 95% CI). We share practical solutions to challenges faced in using spatiotemporal patchworks of LiDAR to meet growing needs for AGB mapping in support of applications in forest carbon accounting and ecosystem., Comment: Manuscript: 19 pages, 8 figures; Supplements: 13 pages, 4 figures; Submitted to: International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geodata, Earth Observations for Carbon Neutrality and Sustainable Development Goals Special Issue

Novel plant communities reshape landscapes and pose challenges for land cover classification and mapping that can constrain research and stewardship efforts. In the US Northeast, emergence of low-statured woody vegetation, or shrublands, instead of secondary forests in post-agricultural landscapes is well-documented by field studies, but poorly understood from a landscape perspective, which limits the ability to systematically study and manage these lands. To address gaps in classification/mapping of low-statured cover types where they have been historically rare, we developed models to predict shrubland distributions at 30m resolution across New York State (NYS), using a stacked ensemble combining a random forest, gradient boosting machine, and artificial neural network to integrate remote sensing of structural (airborne LIDAR) and optical (satellite imagery) properties of vegetation cover. We first classified a 1m canopy height model (CHM), derived from a patchwork of available LIDAR coverages, to define shrubland presence/absence. Next, these non-contiguous maps were used to train a model ensemble based on temporally-segmented imagery to predict shrubland probability for the entire study landscape (NYS). Approximately 2.5% of the CHM coverage area was classified as shrubland. Models using Landsat predictors trained on the classified CHM were effective at identifying shrubland (test set AUC=0.893, real-world AUC=0.904), in discriminating between shrub/young forest and other cover classes, and produced qualitatively sensible maps, even when extending beyond the original training data. Our results suggest that incorporation of airborne LiDAR, even from a discontinuous patchwork of coverages, can improve land cover classification of historically rare but increasingly prevalent shrubland habitats across broader areas., Comment: 43 pages (35 main text, 8 supplementary materials); 11 figures (10 main text, 1 supplementary materials), 10 tables (4 main text, 6 supplementary materials)