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Over the past decade, considerable progress has been made in the control, elimination, and eradication of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Despite these advances, most NTD programs have recently experienced important setbacks; for example, NTD interventions were some of the most frequently and severely impacted by service disruptions due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modeling can help inform selection of interventions to meet the targets set out in the NTD road map 2021-2030, and such studies should prioritize questions that are relevant for decision-makers, especially those designing, implementing, and evaluating national and subnational programs. In September 2022, the World Health Organization hosted a stakeholder meeting to identify such priority modeling questions across a range of NTDs and to consider how modeling could inform local decision making. Here, we summarize the outputs of the meeting, highlight common themes in the questions being asked, and discuss how quantitative modeling can support programmatic decisions that may accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets.

BACKGROUND: Global interest in malaria elimination has prompted research on active test and treat (TaT) strategies. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted to assess the effectiveness of TaT strategies to reduce malaria transmission. RESULTS: A total of 72 empirical research and 24 modelling studies were identified, mainly focused on proactive mass TaT (MTaT) and reactive case detection (RACD) in higher and lower transmission settings, respectively. Ten intervention studies compared MTaT to no MTaT and the evidence for impact on malaria incidence was weak. No intervention studies compared RACD to no RACD. Compared to passive case detection (PCD) alone, PCD + RACD using standard diagnostics increased infection detection 52.7% and 11.3% in low and very low transmission settings, respectively. Using molecular methods increased this detection of infections by 1.4- and 1.1-fold, respectively. CONCLUSION: Results suggest MTaT is not effective for reducing transmission. By increasing case detection, surveillance data provided by RACD may indirectly reduce transmission by informing coordinated responses of intervention targeting.

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many key neglected tropical disease (NTD) activities have been postponed. This hindrance comes at a time when the NTDs are progressing towards their ambitious goals for 2030. Mathematical modelling on several NTDs, namely gambiense sleeping sickness, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), trachoma, and visceral leishmaniasis, shows that the impact of this disruption will vary across the diseases. Programs face a risk of resurgence, which will be fastest in high-transmission areas. Furthermore, of the mass drug administration diseases, schistosomiasis, STH, and trachoma are likely to encounter faster resurgence. The case-finding diseases (gambiense sleeping sickness and visceral leishmaniasis) are likely to have fewer cases being detected but may face an increasing underlying rate of new infections. However, once programs are able to resume, there are ways to mitigate the impact and accelerate progress towards the 2030 goals.

Cambodia’s goal to eliminate malaria by 2025 is challenged by persistent transmission in forest and forest fringe areas, where people are exposed to Anopheles mosquito bites during the day and night. Volatile pyrethroid spatial repellents (VPSRs) and insecticide-treated clothing (ITC) could address these gaps. This study evaluated the outdoor application of one passive transfluthrin-based VPSR, four etofenprox-ITCs paired with a picaridin topical repellent, and a combination of VPSR and ITC against wild Anopheles landing in Cambodia. A 7 × 7 Latin-square study was conducted over 49 collection nights in temporary open structures in Mondulkiri Province. All interventions substantially reduced Anopheles landing, with protective efficacy ranging from 61 to 95%. Mathematical modeling showed significant reductions in vectoral capacity, especially with the combined ITC and VPSR and VPSR alone, albeit with decreased effectiveness over time. These interventions have the potential to reduce outdoor and daytime Anopheles biting, offering valuable contributions to malaria elimination efforts in Cambodia and the Greater Mekong Subregion, contingent upon achieving effective coverage and adherence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundDespite great achievements by insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) in reducing malaria transmission, it is unlikely these tools will be sufficient to eliminate malaria transmission on their own in many settings today. Fortunately, field experiments indicate that there are many promising vector control interventions that can be used to complement ITNs and/or IRS by targeting a wide range of biological and environmental mosquito resources. The majority of these experiments were performed to test a single vector control intervention in isolation; however, there is growing evidence and consensus that effective vector control with the goal of malaria elimination will require a combination of interventions.Method and findingsWe have developed a model of mosquito population dynamic to describe the mosquito life and feeding cycles and to optimize the impact of vector control intervention combinations at suppressing mosquito populations. The model simulations were performed for the main three malaria vectors in sub-Saharan Africa, Anopheles gambiae s.s, An. arabiensis and An. funestus. We considered areas having low, moderate and high malaria transmission, corresponding to entomological inoculation rates of 10, 50 and 100 infective bites per person per year, respectively. In all settings, we considered baseline ITN coverage of 50% or 80% in addition to a range of other vector control tools to interrupt malaria transmission. The model was used to sweep through parameters space to select the best optimal intervention packages. Sample model simulations indicate that, starting with ITNs at a coverage of 50% (An. gambiae s.s. and An. funestus) or 80% (An. arabiensis) and adding interventions that do not require human participation (e.g. larviciding at 80% coverage, endectocide treated cattle at 50% coverage and attractive toxic sugar baits at 50% coverage) may be sufficient to suppress all the three species to an extent required to achieve local malaria elimination.ConclusionThe Vector Control Optimization Model (VCOM) is a computational tool to predict the impact of combined vector control interventions at the mosquito population level in a range of eco-epidemiological settings. The model predicts specific combinations of vector control tools to achieve local malaria elimination in a range of eco-epidemiological settings and can assist researchers and program decision-makers on the design of experimental or operational research to test vector control interventions. A corresponding graphical user interface is available for national malaria control programs and other end users.

Entomological evaluations of vector control tools often use human landing catches (HLCs) as a standard measure of a direct human-vector contact. However, some tools have additional characteristics, such as mortality, and HLCS are not sensitive for measuring other effects beyond landing inhibition. Therefore, additional measures may need to be considered when evaluating these tools for public health use. This study has two main aims (1) the evaluate the accuracy of HLCs as a proxy for feeding and (2) to compare the predicted reduction in vectorial capacity when we do and do not consider these additional characteristics. To achieve this, we analyse previously published semi-field data from an experiment which used HLCs and another where mosquitoes were allowed to feed in the presence of different dosages of the volatile pyrethroid spatial repellent, transfluthrin. We compare results for two mathematical models: one which only considers the reduction in feeding effect and one which also considers mortality before and after feeding (using data gathered by the aspiration of mosquitoes after the semi-field feeding/landing period and 24 h survival monitoring). These Bayesian hierarchical models are parameterised using Bayesian inference. We observe that, for susceptible mosquitoes, reduction in landing is underestimated by HLCs. For knockdown resistant mosquitoes the relationship is less clear; with HLCs sometimes appearing to overestimate this characteristic. We find HLCs tend to under-predict the relative reduction in vectorial capacity in susceptible mosquitoes while over-predicting this impact in knockdown-resistant mosquitoes. Models without secondary effects have lower predicted relative reductions in vectorial capacities. Overall, this study highlights the importance of considering additional characteristics to reduction in biting of volatile pyrethroid spatial repellents. We recommend that these are considered when evaluating novel vector control tools. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider a Darwinian (evolutionary game theoretic) version of a standard susceptible-infectious SI model in which the resistance of the disease causing pathogen to a treatment that prevents death to infected individuals is subject to evolutionary adaptation. We determine the existence and stability of all equilibria, both disease-free and endemic, and use the results to determine conditions under which the treatment will succeed or fail. Of particular interest are conditions under which a successful treatment in the absence of resistance adaptation (i.e. one that leads to a stable disease-free equilibrium) will succeed or fail when pathogen resistance is adaptive. These conditions are determined by the relative breadths of treatment effectiveness and infection transmission rate distributions as functions of pathogen resistance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]