1. Analysis of risk factors and prediction model construction for varicella encephalitis in children: A retrospective cohort study.
- Author
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Wang C, Tang L, and Guo D
- Subjects
- Humans, Risk Factors, Female, Male, Retrospective Studies, Child, Preschool, Child, Infant, Chickenpox epidemiology, Chickenpox complications, Chickenpox diagnosis, Herpesvirus 3, Human, Encephalitis, Varicella Zoster diagnosis, Encephalitis, Varicella Zoster epidemiology, Encephalitis, Varicella Zoster complications, ROC Curve
- Abstract
Introduction: This study aimed to analyze the risk factors for varicella encephalitis in children and establish a predictive model., Methods: This retrospective cohort study included a varicella encephalitis group ( n = 75) and a varicella-non-encephalitis group ( n = 135). Logistic regression analysis was employed to find risk factors for varicella encephalitis and create a predictive model., Results: Older age, vomiting, poor mental status, and prolonged rash duration were independent risk factors for varicella encephalitis ( p < .05). The predictive model for varicella encephalitis combined above four factors. The ROC curve of the predictive model showed an area under the curve of 0.955 (95% CI 0.925-0.986) for varicella encephalitis in children with a sensitivity of 94.7%, and a specificity of 86.0%., Conclusion: Children with varicella who are older, experience vomiting, exhibit poor mental status, or have a prolonged rash duration should be closely monitored clinically. The predictive model combining these four factors demonstrates good predictive efficiency., Competing Interests: Declaration of conflicting interestsThe author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.
- Published
- 2024
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