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Although research examining loyalty point redemption has focused almost exclusively on fixed exchange rates between points and money (e.g., 100 points = $1), variable exchange rates are observed frequently in practice (e.g., 100 points might equate to more or less than $1, depending on the monetary price and the required points for a flight redemption within the continental United States). Such variable rates are particularly common in loyalty programs in the hospitality industry. In this research, the authors show that the stability of the exchange rate—whether the exchange rate is fixed or variable across offers—systematically influences point redemption. Consumers are less likely to redeem loyalty points and instead spend money when they observe a variable exchange rate between money and points than when they observe a fixed exchange rate, even when the average value of points is the same. This effect is demonstrated in a series of studies across contexts, including an incentive-compatible retail loyalty program and a hotel loyalty program. The findings show that a variable point exchange rate induces more optimism than a fixed exchange rate, reducing point redemption. This effect is moderated by individual differences in optimism and by point expiration date. The authors conclude by discussing the implications for managers of loyalty programs and for consumers. Note : This manuscript was submitted to JMR before Rebecca Hamilton's appointment as Editor in Chief. The editor team that began the review process, Sachin Gupta and Vikas Mittal, finished the review process and final acceptance, per the AMA policy on submissions by journal editors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High unemployment, volatile exchange rates and hyperinflation contest the steady economy of Ethiopia. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between inflation, unemployment, exchange rate and economic growth in the steady transition economy of Ethiopia. For this purpose, descriptive and econometric analyses with VAR and Granger causality estimations have been employed by using the annual time series data from 1980 to 2022. The descriptive results show that after 2010, in Ethiopia, stagnant economic growth, extreme volatile exchange rates and hyperinflation were observed. The VAR estimate is consistent with the results of the Granger causality test. It showed that in the long run, economic growth and currency depreciation are directly associated, but unemployment has a negative impact on inflation and economic growth. Economic growth and unemployment have an enlightened impact on the exchange rate devaluation, but they are not ultimately impacted by the rate of inflation. The study implied that between 1980 and 2022, in Ethiopia, there were high rates of unemployment, slow economic growth coupled with hyperinflation and a high exchange rate. The study suggested that boosting industry and agricultural productivity through the adoption of innovation, replacing foreign commodities with domestic commodities and expanding the supply of domestic commodities in international markets can resolve the inspected Ethiopian macroeconomic problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current work adds to the present research by exploring the asymmetric impact of gold prices, interest rates, oil prices and the currency exchange movements in the Indian equity market. The study considers the monthly price of interest rate, crude oil, USD versus INR, BSE Sensex closing value and the prices of gold. A non-linear method promoted by Shin et al. (2014) is applied to 27 years of data from 1990 to 2018 to examine short-term and long-term asymmetrical relationships. The empirical outcome revealed that the variables analysed have an asymmetrical influence on the equity index. Positive shocks on crude oil prices affect the stock index negatively, while gold price changes tend to generate a favourable effect on the stock indices in a short interval yet suggest the adverse impact in the long-run. A positive short and long-term reaction on the equity indices is seen due to the negative move in currency exchange. The results are essentially significant due to the commodities' volatility pattern that plays a determining role to value derivatives and hedging instruments. The asymmetric relation of explanatory variables with stock index offers a superior understanding of the risky environment, especially in emerging financial markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study seeks to test the validity of the Marshall–Lerner (M-L) condition between Egypt and BRICS countries (five countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) to determine which industries will benefit from depreciation in the long run by employing the import and export models between Egypt and the BRICS countries at the bilateral and commodity levels by selecting 69 commodities according to the harmonized system (H.S.) 2-digits—these commodities represent a significant portion of Egypt–BRICS trade—and applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test over 2001–2022. The results indicate that the M-L condition is not met at the bilateral trade level. At the commodity level, the M-L condition is held only in 8 out of 69 industries. Egypt has a comparative advantage in five of these eight industries—coded 17, 32, 55, 62, and 96—while 71, 79, and 84 have a comparative disadvantage. However, all these industries' sizes, reflected by their trade share in 2022, are small. The paper builds on previous theoretical and empirical work in this field and fills a knowledge gap by examining the M-L condition in Egypt–BRICS trade. Moreover, addressing aggregation bias through disaggregated analysis—at the bilateral level as well as at the commodity level—the study results may motivate the government and policymakers to ask for more consideration of the structure of Egypt's exports and imports with BRICS countries to capture the benefits of devaluation and joining the BRICS bloc and provide comprehensive backing for the industries where the M-L condition was met. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We shed new light on the long- and short-run asymmetric impact of exchange rate on tourism inflows over the period of 1995–2019 for selected ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand; ASEAN-5). The investigation utilized Shin et al. (2014) recently developed NARDL model and the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) causality test. The asymmetric effect was introduced via decomposing the real exchange rate into positive and negative innovations. The key findings show that long-run relationship was found for all countries, when incorporating structural breaks. Additionally, findings support asymmetric long-run effect of exchange rate for Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore. Finally, the Toda and Yamamoto causality test revealed diverse findings regarding the exchange rate- tourism inflows nexus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model, this study analyzes how inbound tourist arrivals (TOUR) respond to EPU in Australia. Empirical results show that EPU can Granger cause TOUR in most cases before COVID-19, whereas little evidence supports this finding after the pandemic. At the national level, it is found that EPU was the net risk transmitter before COVID-19 but became the net risk receiver after COVID-19, while TOUR was the net risk receiver over March 2007-March 2020 but became the net risk transmitter in the remaining months. The impulse response functions reflect that a 2.81% decline in the total TOUR was observed due to a 1% increase in EPU, which gradually decayed within 9 months for the sub-sample before COVID-19. Similar findings hold at the state/territory level. These findings provide profound evidence for the national and state/territory governments to allocate tourism resources and formulate supportive tourism policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of International Journal of Professional Business Review (JPBReview) is the property of Open Access Publications LLC and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This research was conducted to determine the short-term and long-term effects of inflation, exchange rates, interest rates, and the money supply on economic growth in Indonesia from 2009 to 2022 using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method. The VECM method is used to analyze the interaction between these variables over different time horizons, offering valuable insights into their respective roles in influencing economic growth. The results show that in the short run, the exchange rate variable does not have a significant effect on the economic growth, while in the long run the interest rate variable has a positive impact on the economy with a negative coefficient value. The short run variable interest rates do not have significant effects on the growth of the economy, but in the longer run interest rates have an important effect on growth. In conclusion, the effect of exchange rates on the Indonesian economy is still a controversial research topic. The findings enhance the current literature on macroeconomic policy and provide a foundation for policymakers to design more effective economic strategies, especially in addressing the challenges posed by inflation and exchange rate volatility in both the short and long terms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research aims to empirically test the influence of the short-term equilibrium relationship and long-term equilibrium relationship of economic growth, interest rate, inflation, and exchange rate on IHSG (IDX Composite) using empirical Error Correction Model (ECM) data from 2000 to 2023. During the observation period, the macroeconomic variables showed no significant influence on the movement of the IHSG (IDX Composite) in the short-term equilibrium relationship, whereas in the long-term equilibrium relationship almost all variables, namely economic growth, interest rate, and exchange rate, had a significant influence on the IHSG (IDX Composite), while inflation has no short or long term effect on the IHSG. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transfer pricing is a significant issue in the sphere of business and taxation. In various countries, the development of international and multinational corporations can boost the practice of transfer pricing. However, some of them are not based on the arm's length price. This research is aimed to analyze the effextivity profitability tax rate and exchange rate toward the firm decision of transfer pricing. The dependent variable in this research is transfer pricing substituted by the value of related party transaction (RPT) of sales. The independent variables in this research are effective tax rate, profitability, and exchange rate. This study employs secondary data obtained from accessible annual report of 29 multinational corporations listed on Indonesian stock exchange in 2016-2019. The data analysis utilizes regression analysis method or a sample selection according to specific criteria. The results of the analysis in this research show that effective tax rate and exchange rate have a positive and significant influence toward the firm decision of transfer pricing. While profitability does not affect the firm decision of transfer pricing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the Self-exciting Threshold Autoregressive Model (SETAR_M) and linear models such as the vector error correction model (VECM), and univariate models, this article specifies forecasting models for exchange rate volatilities in Ghana and compares their forecasts accuracy using Diebold–Mariano and Pesaran-Timmermann tests statistics. The relevance of this research is to equip business owners and businesses on managing forex losses and to reduce their impact on profits, productivity and employment in high volatile and unstable currency environments. The research concludes that the non-linear SETAR model is superior to the linear models in predicting short-term volatilities in exchange rates, while the fundamentally based linear model is superior for predicting long-term volatility in exchange rates. Therefore, short-term business commitments or transactions such as raw material purchases, cash expenses or incomes in foreign currencies should be planned or managed using SETAR or a non-linear model, whereas long-term contractual obligations like futures and forward contracts should be planned with a fundamentally based multivariate linear model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The pandemic crisis and associated lockdown have led to diminution in demand on one hand and different types of supply side bottlenecks on the other. The article makes a theoretical attempt to assess macroeconomic dimensions of COVID-19 along with consequences of such crisis using a two-sector dependent economy model. In particular, the article investigates the implications of unanticipated adverse shock such as COVID-19 and wage cut for the dynamic interaction of Tobin's q, price of non-traded goods and the exchange rate and sectoral composition of output and level of employment. The effects of expansionary fiscal policy and increase in risk premium are also highlighted as the part of concluding remarks. The results in this article critically depend on the difference in the speeds of adjustments in the Tobin's q, exchange rate and price of non-traded goods and different types of cross effects emanating from changes in interconnected macroeconomic variables. While the pandemic crisis leads to contraction of all the sectors and decrease in level of employment in the short-run with uncertain medium-run implications, the wage cut somewhat arrests the fall in employment. JEL Codes: E24, F41, G12 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes to the literature by analysing shock propagation mechanisms between world uncertainty, exchange rates and country-specific commodity terms of trade. Using monthly data from 2008 to 2020 for eight commodity currencies' exchange rates, we analyse the impulse responses based on local projections. The study results show that a shock from the exchange rates which are net transmitters of shocks through the direct United States (US) dollar effect causes world uncertainty to rise and subsequently fall due to the indirect commodity terms of trade effect. Also, in response to world uncertainty shock, the exchange rates fall in the risk-on period and subsequently overshoot during the risk-off period when investors seek the safe haven of the dollar. The world uncertainty shock on the exchange rate is predominantly experienced in the economies that largely trade commodities with the US, particularly Russia and Canada. The study finds evidence that the dollar is a prime cause of world uncertainty. Hence, for policy implications, the study discusses that policymakers, investors, or traders pay attention to the dollar which is the main invoicing currency in the international market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of International Journal of Professional Business Review (JPBReview) is the property of Open Access Publications LLC and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The Nigerian currency has experienced a significant depreciation due to its exchange with foreign currencies, particularly the dollar. This exchange rate depreciation affects purchasing power, real wages, foreign trade, debt servicing, macroeconomic stability, and interest rates. The study then seeks to fill a knowledge gap on the asymmetric link between exchange rate depreciation, trade balance, and economic growth in Nigeria. The Phillip-Perron and Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests found mixed stationarity, whereas the ARDL bound cointegration test revealed a long-term link between these variables. As such, the study revealed that the depreciation of the exchange rate and trade balance positively affects economic growth. As the currency weakens, interest rates and money supply rise, and the economic growth rate rises. The study uses the error correction model to correct the disequilibrium by 59.8% to correct this economic hardship in the Nigerian economy, demonstrating that exchange rate depreciation considerably influences economic growth in the long run but not in the short term. Therefore, the practical implication is that the cost of production, importation, and inflation is high, causing fiscal restraints, governmental regulations, and economic shocks to macroeconomic stability, which may all influence economic growth. They recommend that interest rates be readjusted and that the government give grants and non-interest rate loans to small and medium enterprises to mash up with the import and export of consumable goods.

Abstract This study seeks to test the validity of the Marshall–Lerner (M-L) condition between Egypt and BRICS countries (five countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) to determine which industries will benefit from depreciation in the long run by employing the import and export models between Egypt and the BRICS countries at the bilateral and commodity levels by selecting 69 commodities according to the harmonized system (H.S.) 2-digits—these commodities represent a significant portion of Egypt–BRICS trade—and applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test over 2001–2022. The results indicate that the M-L condition is not met at the bilateral trade level. At the commodity level, the M-L condition is held only in 8 out of 69 industries. Egypt has a comparative advantage in five of these eight industries—coded 17, 32, 55, 62, and 96—while 71, 79, and 84 have a comparative disadvantage. However, all these industries’ sizes, reflected by their trade share in 2022, are small. The paper builds on previous theoretical and empirical work in this field and fills a knowledge gap by examining the M-L condition in Egypt–BRICS trade. Moreover, addressing aggregation bias through disaggregated analysis—at the bilateral level as well as at the commodity level—the study results may motivate the government and policymakers to ask for more consideration of the structure of Egypt’s exports and imports with BRICS countries to capture the benefits of devaluation and joining the BRICS bloc and provide comprehensive backing for the industries where the M-L condition was met.

This research aims to analyze the dependence of the IDR-USD exchange rate on the volume of mining exports in Indonesia using the copula approach. This dependence is important to understand considering that the exchange rate and mineral exports have a direct impact on the country's economy which depends on foreign exchange from this sector. Mineral exports are one of the country's main sources of foreign exchange, while the exchange rate influences the competitiveness of exports on the international market. The mining products taken are iron and steel, copper and nickel, which are Indonesia's leading commodities. The copula method was chosen because of its ability to capture and model non-linear dependencies between variables, without considering the distribution of each variable. Copula makes it possible to model the marginal distribution of exchange rates and export volumes separately from their dependency structures, which is in line with the complex and dynamic nature of the Indonesian mining sector economy. The results show that there is no significant dependence between the exchange rate and the volume of commodity exports taken. Therefore, this commodity export volume policy will not have a significant effect on fluctuations in the IDR-USD exchange rate and vice versa. This article can be a recommendation for exporters to understand that export volumes do not need to pay attention to exchange rate fluctuations.

This study aims to demonstrate the impact of exchange rate changes on the velocity of money in the Egyptian economy, especially after the exchange rate underwent several changes that led to a significant depreciation of the Egyptian pound. The velocity of money has been influenced by various economic variables, including the interest rate, gross domestic product (GDP), per capita income, foreign reserves, exports and imports, the degree of financial development, and the broad money supply.Among these, the exchange rate is considered one of the most significant influencing variables, as it serves as a dual economic adjustment tool to achieve both internal and external balance.To achieve this goal, the study utilized annual time series data spanning from 2000 to 2024. It employed two approaches: the analytical approach, which encompasses economic theories that identify the key determinants of exchange rate fluctuations and the velocity of money, aiming to uncover the pathways through which the exchange rate influences the velocity of money. Additionally, the econometric approach was applied, using time series data for both independent variables and the dependent variable through the ARIMA model.The results of the study indicated a significant positive correlation between the exchange rate, per capita income, and the velocity of money. Conversely, the study found a significant negative correlation between foreign currency reserves, the broad money supply, and the velocity of money.

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'deki katılım bankalarının finansal performansını değerlendirmek amacıyla 2016:Q1-2023:Q4 dönemlerindeki finansal verileri içeren bir veri seti kullanılmıştır. Veri seti; Albaraka, Kuveyt Türk, Türkiye Finans, Vakıf Katılım ve Ziraat Katılım bankalarının her bir çeyrek dönem için çeşitli finansal göstergelerini kapsamakta ve toplamda 160 gözlem içermektedir. Çalışmada aktif karlılık ve özkaynak karlılığı bağımlı değişken; büyüme oranı, kredi temerrüt takas oranı, finansal hizmetlere güven değişkeni, döviz kuru ve kar pay oranı bağımsız değişken olarak belirlenmiştir. Çalışmada, bankaların finansal performansını belirleyen faktörlerin analiz edilmesinde hem zaman, hem de yatay kesit etkilerini dikkate alan panel veri analizi kullanılmıştır. Araştırmadan elde edilen bulgulara göre, kredi temerrüt takası, döviz kuru ve kar payı oranının katılım bankalarının performansı üzerinde anlamlı etkileri bulunmaktadır. Ayrıca büyümenin aktif karlılık üzerindeki etkisi anlamlı iken özkaynak karlılığı üzerindeki etkisinin anlamlı olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Finansal hizmetlere güvenin ise katılım bankalarının performansı üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi yoktur.

Inflation is one of the basic problems in any economy that has adverse and unavoidable effects. Economists and policymakers have always paid attention to the issue of inflation and investigated ways to reduce it. One of the crucial economic issues in Iran is identifying the factors that affect the inflation rate. Among these, the monetary base and its various components play an important role in this field. Therefore, this study attempts to compare the impact of the components of monetary base resources on inflation in Iran. In this research, the influence of the components of monetary base resources on inflation in Iran in the period 1975–2020 has been compared using the random forest model. The results of parameter estimation using random forest regression for the main influential variables are currency growth rate, GDP growth rate, expected inflation, growth rate of public sector debt to the central bank, and growth rate of net foreign assets of the central bank. The growth rate of bank debt to the central bank does not affect inflation, so the relationship between the government and the central bank should be such that it removes the burden of the money volume caused by the budget deficit of the government and can relate the money volume to changes in production. Some of these results confirm the results of some previous research. In previous research, the growth rate of the exchange rate and the growth rate of the public sector debt to the central bank have been listed as the most important factors affecting the monetary base, and the variables that did not have an effect on inflation in this research were mostly unaffected in the previous researches as well.

This paper analyses the causal relationship between Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI), Equities Market Volatility, Exchange Rate and Inflation in Zimbabwe using a monthly time series data between October 2018 and November 2021. The granger causality model was used to present the link between the variables, and EGARCH was used to account for volatility and asymmetric effects on the variables. To incorporate innovations and responses into the Granger model, impulse response functions were used. Links between exchange rate and foreign portfolio investments were found. This only suggests that exchange rate volatility will vary when overseas investors purchase and sell financial securities on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE). In contrast, foreign investors sell local financial securities when local stock market returns are negative, leading to a significant outflow of foreign portfolio investment thereby reducing demand for currency. A significant causal relationship was found between the volatility of the exchange rate and stock market returns. It is assumed that stock market returns, and foreign portfolio investments are caused by fluctuating currency rates. The relationship between exchange rate and ZSE returns, and inflation was found based on Granger causality. This implies that stocks are not suitable for long-term investments that compensate investors for their diminished purchasing power. Policy makers should advise the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange to recommend a reduction in capital gains tax and withholding tax and this encourages investors to hold local equities for a long time.

This research paper attempts to test the applicability of the Purchasing Power Parity theory to the Algerian economy. Annual data from 1990 to 2023, specifically concerning the official exchange rate and the consumer price index, were used. By conducting a series of econometric tests, such as stationarity tests, cointegration tests, and causality studies, the study concludes that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the official exchange rate and the consumer price index. Hence, it can be inferred that the PPP theory holds true for the Algerian context. This implies that purchasing power parity is maintained in the long run, and therefore, this theory can be relied upon to determine and interpret the exchange rate of the Algerian dinar in the current scenario. The results of the error correction model estimation from the joint integration test also showed a direct relationship between the nominal exchange rate and the consumer price index, such that a relative change in the exchange rate by one unit leads to a relative change in the consumer price index by 0.14. The error correction model coefficient, estimated at 0.024, reveals the speed of the return to the equilibrium position and is a relatively weak correction coefficient. Based on the R² value, it can be said that exchange rates represent 69% of the changes in the consumer price index. The Granger causality test revealed a causal relationship running from the official exchange rate to the consumer price index for the Algerian economy.

This study investigates the impacts of the nominal exchange rate on Turkish stock prices using a structural break cointegration test with endogenously determined multiple structural breaks and an asymmetric cointegration test for the period of 2002-2021. The study differs from previous research on this relation in two respects. First, it takes into account structural breaks in relation to both regimes and trends (C/S/T). Second, it extends the asymmetric cointegration with multiple structural breaks. The findings of structural break cointegration capture the break dates in line with the Turkish economics dynamics and reveal the negative effects of the exchange rates on stocks, with their significance and magnitude differing in regimes. Similarly, NARDL results indicate that negative and positive exchange rate shocks exhibit asymmetric effects on stocks for both the whole period and regimes. The overall findings demonstrate that exchange rate variations have distinctive impacts on stock prices when considering structural break and asymmetrical dynamics. In this background, policymakers and foreign investors need to take into account these dynamics when dealing with Turkish financial markets.

Investors should consider the Indonesia Composite Index (ICI) as a key indicator before making investment decisions, as it reflects the performance of industries and the broader economic growth. In Indonesia, the ICI exhibits fluctuating movements, making accurate forecasting essential for understanding the country's economic conditions, which are closely tied to capital flows, growth, and tax revenues. This study aims to forecast the ICI using the SARIMAX-GARCH model, incorporating macroeconomic factors such as the inflation rate and exchange rate. The findings reveal that both variables significantly impact the ICI, with the model achieving a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.952% for training data and 5.233% for test data. The model's performance is supported by an R² value of 0.9782 and a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.0003. This research not only improves the accuracy of ICI forecasts but also supports Indonesia's 8th Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for decent work and economic growth. Doi: 10.28991/HIJ-2024-05-03-014 Full Text: PDF

Transfer pricing can be misapplied by the company by transferring taxable income to subsidiaries and companies with special relationships to significantly push down the tax expense. This research aims to determine factors that can affect transfer pricing decisions. Those factors include tax income, exchange rates, tunnelling incentives, and multinationals. The research object of this research is a company from the consumer non-cyclical sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) from 2017 to 2021. The samples are eight companies selected with purposive sampling technique, resulting in 40 observation data. The analysis technique implemented in this research is panel data regression tested Eviews12. This research reveals that tax income and tunnelling incentives negatively influence transfer pricing decisions. At the same time, the exchange rate and multi-nationality do not affect transfer pricing decisions. Variable tax income, exchange rate, tunnelling incentives, and multinationals have simultaneously affected transfer pricing decisions.