Search

This paper assesses the genealogy of competitive indices in international trade and theoretically develops a measure of export threat which estimates direct competition in vertical market segments. We identify the assumption of homogeneity in these export threat measures as a weakness that undermines accuracy. Hence, we develop a new measure of export threat, the direct intra-market threat (DIMT), which incorporates relative vertical and market share changes over time to accurately estimate a country’s direct threat to other exporters in a third market. We argue that the market segmentation method applied in complement to the DIMT estimate provides an all-encompassing methodology in the estimation of export threat, which we argue is superior to the Dynamic Index of Competitive Threat (DICT) and Direct Threat methodologies. The paper uses the case of China and India (CHINDIA) and the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) to assess the empirical estimates of the DIMT relative to DICT and Direct Threat over the period 2000–2021. Our study is motivated by a research gap in the estimation of the competitive threat posed by a large, diversified exporter on Small Island Developing States (SIDS). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the long-run relationship among energy exports, manufacturing exports, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in Trinidad and Tobago using animal data from 1971 to 2015. Using the autoregressive distributed lag bounds test approach to determine cointegralion and long-run estimates among the variables and the Toda-Yamamoto test to examine long-run causality between the variables, we find a positive relationship between energy exports and GDP per capita and a negative relationship between manufacturing exports and GDP per capita. We also find evidence of both unidirectional causality and bidirectional causality among the variables, a fiding that has implications for policy recommendations. Keywords: Trinidad and Tobago, energy exports, manufacturing exports, economic growth, ARDL bounds test, Toda-Yamamoto causality test. Cet article examine la relation a long terme entre les exportations d'energie, les exportations manufacturieres et le produit interieur brut (PIB) par habitant a Trinite-et-Tobago en se servant des donnees annuelles de 1971 a 2015. En utilisant le modele autoregressif a retards echelonnes ou distribuis pour determiner la cointegration et les estimations a long terme entre les variables et le test de Toda-Yamamoto pour examiner la causalite a long terme entre les variables, nous trouvons une relation positive entre les exportations d'energie et le PIB par habitant et une relation negative entre les exportations manufacturieres et le PIB par habitant. Nous trouvons egalement des preuves de causalite unidirectionnelle et bidirectionnelle entre les variables, un resultat qui a des implications pour les recommandations politicoes. Mot-cles: Trinite-et-Tobago, exportations d'energie, exportations manufacturieres, croissance economique, modelisation ARRE, test de cau Este articulo examina la relacion a largo plazo entre las exportaciones de energia, las exportaciones manufactureras v el producto interno bruto (PIB) per capita en Trinidad v Tobago, a partir de datos anuales desde 1971 a 2015. Utilizando el enfoque de prueba de limites de rezagos distribuidos autorregresivos para determinar la cointegracion, y los estimados a largo plazo entre las variables, y la prueba de Toda-Yamamoto para examinar la causalidad a largo plazo entre las variables, encontramos una relacion positiva entre las exportaciones de energia y el PIB per capita v una relacion negativa entre las exportaciones manufactureras y el PIB per capita. Tambien encontramos evidencia, tanto de causalidad unidireccional como de causalidad bidirectional, entre las variables, un hallazgo que tiene implicaciones para las recomendaciones de politicas a seguir. Palabras clave: Trinidad v Tobago, exportaciones de energia, exportaciones manufactureras, crecimiento economico, prueba de limites de ARDI., prueba de causalidad Toda-Yamamoto., INTRODUCTION Oil-rich economies are highly dependent on the energy sector in their countries. Trinidad and Tobago, being an oil-rich economy, is no exception, with its economy being highly dependent on [...]

For developing economies, exporting broadens the horizon for facilitating effective integration into the global economy and improving overall competitiveness. While small developing states are particularly at high risk given their fundamental characteristics, the expected impact of these exogenous shocks on small resource dependent economies are amplified given the high possibility of lower levels of diversification. This paper therefore assesses the determinants of exports and exporting potential of SIDS (small island developing states) with a focus on Caribbean resource-based countries. Using non resource exports, in an aggregate and disaggregate form, as the dependent variable, the traditional gravity model was augmented to include a revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index, the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the exporter and the export sophistication (EXPY) index. The main findings indicate that an appreciation of the REER has an inverse impact on exports of non-resource commodities and that trade according to comparative advantage and differences in export sophistication occurs mainly in the agricultural sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines trade complementarity as a basis for the natural trading partner hypothesis from a sectoral view of trade for the petroleum-based economy of Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) over the period of 2000 to 2015. Gravity modeling and an Intercountries Trade Force (ITF) model are adopted to determine the nature of sectoral trade complementarities in T&T over time. The results shows that trade complementarity and manufacturing trade complementarity significantly contribute to trade for T&T, which is important when choosing trade partners. This provides incentives for manufacturing which can dampen the effect of the Dutch Disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The gravity model framework is employed to test the impact of the incidence of sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) and technical regulations (TBT) on exports of food and agriculture products from Guyana to selected markets within the Caribbean Community including Barbados, Trinidad & Tobago, Jamaica, Suriname, Grenada, Dominica and Antigua & Barbuda; as well as the attempt to coordinate and strengthen agricultural health and food safety systems through the creation of the Caribbean Agricultural Health and Food Safety Agency (CAHFSA). The analysis covers ten years, 2005-2014. The results suggest that TBT regulations are generally trade-reducing while the incidence of SPS regulations enhance exports. CAHFSA has also had trade-enhancing effects.Keywords: Exports, food and agriculture, gravity, Guyana, SPS, Sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) and technical regulations (TBT) are non-tariff measures that serve the goals of protecting human, animal, and plant life against health risks associated with imported products. However, [...]

An integrated framework for studying the effects of COVID-19 policies on women selfemployment rates is not available despite the increased economic activity of women in selfemployment across several countries. The main objective of this paper is to develop a conceptual framework for the effects of COVID-19 policies on women self-employment rates, and the moderators of the relationship. Based on a critical review of the literature, we develop a conceptual framework, which consists of two types of COVID-19 policies, namely hostile lockdown policies (i.e., those that restrict community movement) and less/non-hostile policies (i.e., those that do not restrict movement). We then theorize the direct effects of these policies on women self-employment rates, and the factors that moderate the relationship. First, compared to men, hostile COVID-19 lockdown policies are more likely to have negative effects on women self-employment rates. Secondly, hostile COVID-19 lockdown policies are more likely to have a negative impact on women in self-employment, relative to women in wage employment. Third, the effects of COVID-19 policies on women self-employment rates are moderated by social factors (i.e., marriage and caring responsibilities) and economic development factors (i.e., level of human development, income support measures, size of the informal economy, and informal cross-border trading). The paper offers several guidelines for the formulation of public policies related to epidemics/pandemics and their effects on women self-employment rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]