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The Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) is losing mass at a high rate1. Given the short-term nature of the observational record, it is difficult to assess the historical importance of this mass-loss trend. Unlike records of greenhouse gas concentrations and global temperature, in which observations have been merged with palaeoclimate datasets, there are no comparably long records for rates of GIS mass change. Here we reveal unprecedented mass loss from the GIS this century, by placing contemporary and future rates of GIS mass loss within the context of the natural variability over the past 12,000 years. We force a high-resolution ice-sheet model with an ensemble of climate histories constrained by ice-core data2. Our simulation domain covers southwestern Greenland, the mass change of which is dominated by surface mass balance. The results agree favourably with an independent chronology of the history of the GIS margin3,4. The largest pre-industrial rates of mass loss (up to 6,000 billion tonnes per century) occurred in the early Holocene, and were similar to the contemporary (ad 2000–2018) rate of around 6,100 billion tonnes per century5. Simulations of future mass loss from southwestern GIS, based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios corresponding to low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration trajectories6, predict mass loss of between 8,800 and 35,900 billion tonnes over the twenty-first century. These rates of GIS mass loss exceed the maximum rates over the past 12,000 years. Because rates of mass loss from the southwestern GIS scale linearly5 with the GIS as a whole, our results indicate, with high confidence, that the rate of mass loss from the GIS will exceed Holocene rates this century. Rates of ice-mass loss from southwestern Greenland this century will exceed the maximum rate over the past 12,000 years, and would not be the result of natural variation.

We investigate changing precipitation patterns in the Kangerlussuaq region of western central Greenland during the Holocene thermal maximum (HTM), using a new chronology of ice sheet terminus position through the Holocene and a novel inverse modeling approach based on the unscented transform (UT). The UT is applied to estimate changes in annual precipitation in order to reduce the misfit between modeled and observed terminus positions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the UT for time-dependent data assimilation, highlighting its low computational cost and trivial parallel implementation. Our results indicate that Holocene warming coincided with elevated precipitation, without which modeled retreat in the Kangerlussuaq region is more rapid than suggested by observations. Less conclusive is whether high temperatures during the HTM were specifically associated with a transient increase in precipitation, as the results depend on the assumed temperature history. Our results highlight the important role that changing precipitation patterns had in controlling ice sheet extent during the Holocene.

Fire managers often make decisions about wildfire incidents on a landscape scale. While several well developed models can predict fire behaviour at these scales, the paucity of data they draw upon can limit their range of validity. Other models explicitly represent the physical complexities of a fire environment, but at increased computational costs and increased sensitivity to boundary conditions. In this paper, we explore a middle ground between landscape level, data-driven fire behaviour predictions and physics-based, computationally expensive models. As a first step, we employ machine learning to predict fire severity from a set of well recognized covariates such as weather, fuel, and topography. A gradient boosted regression tree is used for the classification task, and sets of model hyperparameters tested to determine their role in the classification. The model demonstrates skill in prediction of the burn severity, but is limited by the dynamically evolving set of features; especially the weather. Results were found to be biassed towards under-predicting the severity of wildfires. We conclude with a discussion of approaches available to improve model performance and future applications of the predicted burn severity.

Spatial modelling and machine learning are powerful techniques that can be used to identify patterns within data and build complex relationships between response and predictor variables. While powerful, many of these techniques are computationally intensive and are not designed to fully leverage high performance computing resources, especially when used within a geospatial context. To fully leverage system resources, while facilitating various spatial, machine-learning, and statistical modelling workflows, we developed a Python-based processing library called raster_tools. The raster_tools library automates delayed reading and parallel processing through Dask and integrates seamlessly into popular spatial, machine learning, and visualisation libraries such as geopandas, rasterio, xarray, scikit-learn, xgboost, pygeos, shapely, matplotlib, plotly, folium, and many more. Combined, these open-source libraries provide users with free and powerful analytical capabilities that can be used at scale and that can dynamically display textual, tabular, spatial and graphical in a real-time fashion. In this paper, we will provide a brief overview of the raster_tools library and demonstrate how the described open-source stack can be used to perform GIS analyses using Jupyter-Lab in both a web and desktop environment.

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) is losing mass at a high rate

Moulins permit access of surface meltwater to the glacier bed, causing basal lubrication and ice speedup in the ablation zone of western Greenland during summer. Despite the substantial impact of moulins on ice dynamics, the conditions under which they form are poorly understood. We assimilate a time-series of ice surface velocity from a network of eleven Global Positioning System receivers into an ice sheet model to estimate ice sheet stresses during winter, spring, and summer in an approx. 30 x 10 km region. Surface-parallel von Mises stress increases slightly during spring speedup and early summer, sufficient to allow formation of 16% of moulins mapped in the study area. In contrast, 63% of moulins experience stresses over the tensile strength of ice during a short (hours) supraglacial lake drainage event. Lake drainages appear to control moulin density, which is itself a control on subglacial drainage efficiency and summer ice velocities.

It will be shown that one can obtain from a differential-difference equation reformulation exact closed-form solutions to a class of Stefan problems in cylinders with inverse-square thermal heterogeneity: in particular, new interfacial evolutions were discovered for this class of problems, which Gottlieb's approach [Appl. Math. Lett. 15 (2002) 167–172] had not been able to produce, alongside their associated exact closed-form temperature distributions.

To assess the influence of various mechanisms of heat transfer on the near-surface ice of Greenland's ablation zone, we incorporate highly resolved measurements of ice temperature into thermal modeling experiments. Seven separate temperature strings were installed at three different field sites, each with between 17 and 32 sensors and extending up to 20 m below the surface. In one string, temperatures were measured every 30 minutes, and the record is continuous for more than three years. We use these measured ice temperatures to constrain modeling analyses focused on four isolated processes to assess the relative importance of each to the near-surface ice temperature: 1) the moving boundary of an ablating surface, 2) thermal insulation by snow, 3) radiative energy input, and 4) temperature gradients below the seasonally active near-surface layer. In addition to these four processes, transient heating events were observed in two of the temperature strings. Despite no observations of meltwater pathways to the subsurface, these heating events are likely the refreezing of liquid water below 5–10 m of cold ice. Together with subsurface refreezing, the five heat transfer mechanisms presented here account for measured differences of up to 3 °C between the ice temperature at the depth where annual temperature variability is dissipated and the mean annual air temperature. Thus, in Greenland's ablation zone, the mean annual air temperature cannot be used to predict the near-surface ice temperature, as is commonly assumed.

Englacial radar reflectors in the ablation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet are derived from layering deposited in the accumulation zone over past millennia. The original layer structure is distorted by ice flow toward the margin. In a simplified case, shear and normal strain incurred between the ice divide and terminus should align depositional layers such that they closely approximate particle paths through the ablation zone where horizontal motion dominates. It is unclear, however, if this relationship holds in western Greenland where complex bed topography, three dimensional ice flow, and historical changes to ice sheet mass and geometry since layer deposition may promote a misalignment between present-day layer orientation and the modern ice flow field. We investigate this problem using a suite of analyses that leverage ice sheet models and observational datasets. Our findings suggest that across a study sector of western Greenland, the radiostratigraphy of the ablation zone is closely aligned with englacial particle paths, and is not far departed from a state of balance. The englacial radiostratigraphy thus provides insight into the modern, local, internal flow field, and may serve to further constrain ice sheet models that simulate ice dynamics in this region.

We use a new discretization technique to solve the higher-order thermomechanically coupled equations of glacier evolution. We find that under radially symmetric continuum equations, small perturbations in symmetry due to the discretization are sufficient to produce the initiation of nonsymmetric thermomechanical instabilities which we interpret as ice streams, in good agreement with previous studieswhich have indicated a similar instability. We find that the inclusion of membrane stresses regularizes the size of predicted streams, eliminating the ill-posedness evident in previous investigations of ice stream generation through thermomechanical instability. Ice streams exhibit strongly irregular periodicity which is influenced by neighboring ice streams and the synoptic state of the ice stream. Ice streams are not always the same size but instead appear to follow a temperature-dependent distribution of widths that is robust to grid refinement. The morphology of the predicted ice streams corresponds reasonably well to extant ice streams in physically similar environments.

We present a numerical method for calculating vertically averaged velocity fields using a mass conservation approach, commonly known as balance velocities. This allows for an unstructured grid, is not dependent on a heuristic flow routing algorithm, and is both parallelizable and efficient. We apply the method to calculate depth-averaged velocities of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and find that the method produces grid-independent velocity fields for a sufficient parameterization of horizontal plane stresses on flow directions. We show that balance velocity can be used as the forward model for a constrained optimization problem that can be used to fill gaps and smooth strong gradients in InSAR velocity fields.

The surface and basal boundary conditions exert an important control on the thermodynamic state of the Greenland Ice Sheet, but their representation in numerical ice sheet models is poorly constrained due to the lack of observations. Here we investigate a land-terminating sector of western Greenland and (1) quantify differences between new observations and commonly used boundary condition data sets and (2) demonstrate the impact of improved boundary conditions on simulated thermodynamics in a higher-order numerical flow model. We constrain near-surface temperature with measurements from two 20 m boreholes in the ablation zone and 10 m firn temperature from the percolation zone. We constrain basal heat flux using in situ measurement in a deep bedrock hole at the study area margin and other existing assessments. To assess boundary condition influences on simulated thermal-mechanical processes, we compare model output to multiple full-thickness temperature profiles collected in the ablation zone. Our observation-constrained basal heat flux is 30 mW m−2 less than commonly used representations. In contrast, measured near-surface temperatures are warmer than common surface temperature data sets by up to 15°C. Application of lower basal heat flux increases a model cold bias compared to the measured temperature profiles and causes frozen basal conditions across the ablation zone. Temperate basal conditions are reestablished by our warmer surface boundary. Warmer surface ice and firn can introduce several times more energy to the modeled ice mass than what is lost at the bed from reduced basal heat flux, indicating that the thermomechanical state of the ice sheet is highly sensitive to near-surface effects.

Force-balance calculations on Byrd Glacier, East Antarctica, reveal large spatial variations in the along-flow component of driving stress with corresponding sticky spots that are stationary over time. On the large scale, flow resistance is partitioned between basal (~80%) and lateral (~20%) drag. Ice flow is due mostly to basal sliding and concentrated vertical shear in the basal ice layers, indicating the bed is at or close to the pressure-melting temperature. There is a significant component of driving stress in the across-flow direction resulting in nonzero basal drag in that direction. This is an unrealistic result and we propose that there are spatial variations of bed features resulting in small-scale flow disturbances. The grounding line of Byrd Glacier is located in a region where the bed slopes upward. Nevertheless, despite a 10% increase in ice discharge between December 2005 and February 2007, following drainage of two subglacial lakes in the catchment area, the position of the grounding line has not retreated significantly and the glacier has decelerated since then. During the speed-up event, partitioning of flow resistance did not change, suggesting the increase in velocity was caused by a temporary decrease in basal effective pressure.

We introduce a novel, higher order, finite element ice sheet model called VarGlaS (Variational Glacier Simulator), which is built on the finite element framework FEniCS. Contrary to standard procedure in ice sheet modelling, VarGlaS formulates ice sheet motion as the minimization of an energy functional, conferring advantages such as a consistent platform for making numerical approximations, a coherent relationship between motion and heat generation, and implicit boundary treatment. VarGlaS also solves the equations of enthalpy rather than temperature, avoiding the solution of a contact problem. Rather than include a lengthy model spin-up procedure, VarGlaS possesses an automated framework for model inversion. These capabilities are brought to bear on several benchmark problems in ice sheet modelling, as well as a 500 yr simulation of the Greenland ice sheet at high resolution. VarGlaS performs well in benchmarking experiments and, given a constant climate and a 100 yr relaxation period, predicts a mass evolution of the Greenland ice sheet that matches present-day observations of mass loss. VarGlaS predicts a thinning in the interior and thickening of the margins of the ice sheet.

Atmospheric, oceanic, and subglacial forcing scenarios from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) project are applied to six three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet models to assess Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity over a 500 year timescale and to inform future modeling and field studies. Results indicate (i) growth with warming, except within low-latitude basins (where inland thickening is outpaced by marginal thinning); (ii) mass loss with enhanced sliding (with basins dominated by high driving stresses affected more than basins with low-surface-slope streaming ice); and (iii) mass loss with enhanced ice shelf melting (with changes in West Antarctica dominating the signal due to its marine setting and extensive ice shelves; cf. minimal impact in the Terre Adelie, George V, Oates, and Victoria Land region of East Antarctica). Ice loss due to dynamic changes associated with enhanced sliding and/or sub-shelf melting exceeds the gain due to increased precipitation. Furthermore, differences in results between and within basins as well as the controlling impact of sub-shelf melting on ice dynamics highlight the need for improved understanding of basal conditions, grounding-zone processes, ocean-ice interactions, and the numerical representation of all three.

Ten ice-sheet models are used to study sensitivity of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to prescribed changes of surface mass balance, sub-ice-shelf melting and basal sliding. Results exhibit a large range in projected contributions to sea-level change. In most cases, the ice volume above flotation lost is linearly dependent on the strength of the forcing. Combinations of forcings can be closely approximated by linearly summing the contributions from single forcing experiments, suggesting that nonlinear feedbacks are modest. Our models indicate that Greenland is more sensitive than Antarctica to likely atmospheric changes in temperature and precipitation, while Antarctica is more sensitive to increased ice-shelf basal melting. An experiment approximating the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s RCP8.5 scenario produces additional first-century contributions to sea level of 22.3 and 8.1 cm from Greenland and Antarctica, respectively, with a range among models of 62 and 14 cm, respectively. By 200 years, projections increase to 53.2 and 26.7 cm, respectively, with ranges of 79 and 43 cm. Linear interpolation of the sensitivity results closely approximates these projections, revealing the relative contributions of the individual forcings on the combined volume change and suggesting that total ice-sheet response to complicated forcings over 200 years can be linearized.

Ice flows when gravity acts on gradients in surface elevation, producing driving stresses. In the Isunnguata Sermia and Russell Glacier catchments of western Greenland, a 50% decline in driving stress along a flow line is juxtaposed with increasing surface flow speed. Here, these circumstances are investigated using modern observational data sources and an analysis of the balance of forces. Stress gradients in the ice mass and basal drag which resist the local driving stress are computed in order to investigate the underlying processes influencing the velocity and stress regimes. Our results show that the largest resistive stress gradients along the flowline result from increasing surface velocity. However, the longitudinal coupling stresses fail to exceed 15 kPa, or 20% of the local driving stress. Consequently, computed basal drag declines in proportion to the driving stress. In the absence of significant resistive stress gradients, other mechanisms are therefore necessary to explain the observed velocity increase despite declining driving stress. In the study area, the observed velocity—driving stress feature occurs at the long-term mean position of the equilibrium line of surface mass balance. We hypothesize that this position approximates the inland limit where seasonal surface meltwater penetrates the bed, and that the increased surface velocity reflects enhanced basal motion associated with these meltwater perturbations.

Ice-penetrating radar and ice core drilling4 have shown that large parts of the north-central Greenland ice sheet are melting from below. It has been argued that basal ice melt is due to the anomalously high geothermal flux, that has also influenced the development of the longest ice stream in Greenland. Here we estimate the geothermal flux beneath the Greenland ice sheet and identify a 1,200-km-long and 400-km-wide geothermal anomaly beneath the thick ice cover. We suggest that this anomaly explains the observed melting of the ice sheet’s base, which drives the vigorous subglacial hydrology and controls the position of the head of the enigmatic 750-km-long northeastern Greenland ice stream5. Our combined analysis of independent seismic, gravity and tectonic data implies that the geothermal anomaly, which crosses Greenland from west to east, was formed by Greenland’s passage over the Iceland mantle plume between roughly 80 and 35 million years ago. We conclude that the complexity of the present-day subglacial hydrology and dynamic features of the north-central Greenland ice sheet originated in tectonic events that pre-date the onset of glaciation in Greenland by many tens of millions of years.

A framework for refining and hybridizing the heat balance integral method is proposed. While showing the non-uniqueness of a combined integral method in the sense of Myers and Mitchell [T.G. Myers, S.L. Mitchell, Application of the combined integral method to Stefan problems, Applied Mathematical Modelling 35 (9) (2011) 4281–4294], it is evinced through the hybrids advanced and benchmarks undertaken, that for the class of finite Puiseux series commonly employed, there are no globally efficient exponents. Synthesis of local regions of high accuracy of these hybrids is realized through the introduction of an applicable splicing algorithm.

Subglacial lakes beneath Antarctica’s fast-moving ice streams are known to undergo ∼1 km3 volume changes on annual timescales. Focusing on the MacAyeal Ice Stream (MacIS) lake system, we create a simple model for the response of subglacial water distribution to lake discharge events through assimilation of lake volume changes estimated from Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimetry. We construct a steady-state water transport model in which known subglacial lakes are treated as either sinks or sources depending on the ICESat-derived filling or draining rates. The modeled volume change rates of five large subglacial lakes in the downstream portion of MacIS are shown to be consistent with observed filling rates if the dynamics of all upstream lakes are considered. However, the variable filling rate of the northernmost lake suggests the presence of an undetected lake of similar size upstream. Overall, we show that, for this fast-flowing ice stream, most subglacial lakes receive >90% of their water from distant distributed sources throughout the catchment, and we confirm that water is transported from regions of net basal melt to regions of net basal freezing. Our study provides a geophysically based means of validating subglacial water models in Antarctica and is a potential way to parameterize subglacial lake discharge events in large-scale ice-sheet models where adequate data are available.

A full-stress, thermomechanically coupled, numerical model is used to explore the interaction between basal thermal conditions and motion of a terrestrially terminating section of the west Greenland ice sheet. The model domain is a two-dimensional flowline profile extending from the ice divide to the margin. We use data-assimilation techniques based on the adjoint model in order to optimize the basal traction field, minimizing the difference between modeled and observed surface velocities. We monitor the sensitivity of the frozen/melted boundary (FMB) to changes in prescribed geothermal heat flux and sliding speed by applying perturbations to each of these parameters. The FMB shows sensitivity to the prescribed geothermal heat flux below an upper threshold where a maximum portion of the bed is already melted. The position of the FMB is insensitive to perturbations applied to the basal traction field. This insensitivity is due to the short distances over which longitudinal stresses act in an ice sheet.

In order to retrieve phylogenetic information from distance matrices generated from large-scale clone libraries, and to explore OTU distribution among them, we have developed downstream applications for use with the already available DOTUR program. These programs enhance and ease data extraction, providing phylogeny to the already generated distance data.

Two distinct and novel formalisms for deriving exact closed solutions of a class of variable-coefficient differential-difference equations arising from a plate solidification problem are introduced. Thereupon, exact closed traveling wave and similarity solutions to the plate solidification problem are obtained for some special cases of time-varying plate surface temperature.

The areal distribution and elevation of glacial drifts in Vernier Valley, southern Victoria Land, are used to reconstruct the Plio-Pleistocene history of upper Ferrar Glacier. 21 Ne cosmogenic-nuclide analyses of surface cobbles on four moraines, Ferrar 1, 2, 3, and 4, provide age control. A minimum-age estimate for Ferrar Drifts calculated by assuming zero surface erosion indicates that the oldest moraine, Ferrar 4, was deposited at least ∼ 3400 ka. Our preferred age model, which applies a very conservative erosion rate of 5 cm Ma − 1 in age calculations, suggests that Ferrar 4 is ∼ 4000 ka; Ferrar 3 is ∼ 1200 ka; and Ferrar 2 is ∼ 700 ka. Based on glacial geologic data, Ferrar 1 is modern; cosmogenic ages for cobbles on this moraine suggest a value for nuclide inheritance of ∼ 50 ka. The Ferrar drifts are most easily interpreted in terms of a progressive reduction in the ice-surface elevation of upper Ferrar Glacier during Plio-Pleistocene time. Relative to today, the surface of upper Ferrar Glacier was ∼ 100 to 125 m higher during the Pliocene Climatic Optimum and ∼ 50 m higher during early to mid Quaternary time. Conversely, during MIS 2, the ice-surface elevation of upper Ferrar Glacier was likely no larger than today and may have stood below modern levels. The texture and sedimentology of all Ferrar drifts indicate that during ice recession from Vernier Valley the upper Ferrar Glacier lacked surface-melting ablation zones, even during the Pliocene Climatic Optimum. Results from a simple 2-D glaciological flow-band model demonstrate that upper Ferrar Glacier also lacked basal-melting zones during ice recession. We show that the development of weathering pits and desert varnish on cobbles exposed at the surface of Ferrar drifts varies in accord with cosmogenic age. The mean width and depth of the largest surface pits on boulders from Ferrar drifts increases by ∼ 10 mm Ma − 1 and ∼ 6.7 mm Ma − 1 , respectively; the maximum thickness of desert varnish on surface boulders increases by ∼ 1.5 mm Ma − 1 . These rates may be used to help calculate ages for dolerite-rich drifts elsewhere in the western Dry Valleys region. The general stability of the ice-surface elevation of upper Ferrar Glacier, and of the landscape in Vernier Valley, suggests minimal climatic amelioration in the upland region of the Dry Valleys during the last ∼ 4 Ma.

Field evidence based on sedimentology, geomorphology, and sediment provenance, supported by thermo-mechanical ice sheet model simulations, are used to classify the thermal regime of paleo-ice cover in northern central Baffin and evaluate the spatial and temporal variability of those conditions. A new means to identify paleo-glacier polythermal conditions from the measurement of terrestrial in situ cosmogenic nuclides (TCN) in till was developed to test the assertion that glacial erosion and till production are partially controlled by the thermal regime at the base of a glacier. Concentrations of cosmogenic 10 Be and 26 Al in 19 till samples from north central Baffin Island reflect the spatial pattern of areas classified as warm-based or cold-based (end member) systems. An ice sheet simulation of bed conditions produces the same pattern. The 26 Al/ 10 Be ratio is also used to confirm the long cold-based ice burial histories of surfaces that have not been significantly eroded. The data suggest that till and regolith near the current terminus of the Oliver Glacier preserve a record of >3 Ma of continuous glacial cover. In three localities resembling intermediate cases (i.e., where field observations yield conflicting interpretations of basal thermal regime), the TCN concentrations and 26 Al/ 10 Be reveal that the surface experienced a combination of cold-based ice burial and glacial erosion. When coupled with a high-resolution ice sheet model, the 10 Be concentrations in till provide a more robust means of establishing the temporal and spatial variability in glacial erosion, and can be an important new tool for mineral exploration in glaciated terrain.

The juxtaposition of wet-based erosive ice in valleys and cold-based, non-erosive ice atop felsenmeer-covered interfluve plateaus has generated relief in the Torngat Mountains of northeastern Canada. Measurements of in situ terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide (TCN) concentrations from 31 bedrock sites, coupled with soils and geomorphology, indicate that erosion of the valleys has been >2 m during a single glacial–interglacial cycle. However, on summit plateaus the long-term (over several glacial–interglacial cycles) erosion rate is

The floating terminal of Jakobshavn Isbræ, the fastest Greenland ice stream, has disintegrated since 2002, resulting in a doubling of ice velocity and rapidly lowering inland ice elevations. Conditions prior to disintegration were modeled using control theory in a plane-stress solution, and the Missoula model of ice-shelf flow. Both approaches pointed to a mechanism that inhibits ice flow and that is not captured by either approach. Jamming of flow, an inherent property of granular materials passing through a constriction (Jakobshavn Isfjord), is postulated as the mechanism. Rapid disintegration of heavily crevassed floating ice accompanies break-up of the ice jam.

The Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) effort explores the sensitivity of the current generation of ice sheet models to external forcing to gain insight into the potential future contribution to sea level from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. All participating models simulated the ice sheet response to three types of external forcings: a change in oceanic condition, a warmer atmospheric environment, and enhanced basal lubrication. Here an analysis of the spatial response of the Greenland ice sheet is presented, and the impact of model physics and spin-up on the projections is explored. Although the modeled responses are not always homogeneous, consistent spatial trends emerge from the ensemble analysis, indicating distinct vulnerabilities of the Greenland ice sheet. There are clear response patterns associated with each forcing, and a similar mass loss at the full ice sheet scale will result in different mass losses at the regional scale, as well as distinct thickness changes over the ice sheet. All forcings lead to an increased mass loss for the coming centuries, with increased basal lubrication and warmer ocean conditions affecting mainly outlet glaciers, while the impacts of atmospheric forcings affect the whole ice sheet. Key Points Sensitivity study of Greenland to atmospheric, oceanic and subglacial forcings Each forcing result in a different regional thickness response All forcings lead to an increased mass loss for the coming centuries ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Salva and Tarzia, [N.N. Salva, D.A. Tarzia, J. Math. Anal. Appl. 379 (2011) 240 - 244], gave explicit solutions of a similarity type for a class of free boundary problem for a semi-infinite material. In this paper, through an elementary approach and less stringent assumption on data, we obtain more general results than those given by their central result, and thereby construct explicit solutions for a wider class of Stefan problems with a type of variable heat flux boundary conditions. Further, explicit solutions of certain forced one-phase Stefan problems are given.

Results from the Heinrich Event Intercomparison (HEINO) topic of the Ice-Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP) are presented. ISMIP HEINO was designed to explore internal large-scale ice-sheet instabilities in different contemporary ice-sheet models. These instabilities are of interest because they are a possible cause of Heinrich events. A simplified geometry experiment reproduces the main characteristics of the Laurentide ice sheet, including the sedimented region over Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait. The model experiments include a standard run plus seven variations. Nine dynamic/thermodynamic ice-sheet models were investigated; one of these models contains a combination of the shallow-shelf (SSA) and shallow-ice approximation (SIA), while the remaining eight models are of SIA type only. Seven models, including the SIA–SSA model, exhibit oscillatory surges with a period of ∼1000 years for a broad range of parameters, while two models remain in a permanent state of streaming for most parameter settings. In a number of models, the oscillations disappear for high surface temperatures, strong snowfall and small sediment sliding parameters. In turn, low surface temperatures and low snowfall are favourable for the ice-surge cycles. We conclude that further improvement of ice-sheet models is crucial for adequate, robust simulations of cyclic large-scale instabilities.

To thoroughly investigate the bacterial community diversity present in a single composite sample from an agricultural soil and to examine potential biases resulting from data acquisition and analytical approaches, we examined the effects of percent G+C DNA fractionation, sequence length, and degree of coverage of bacterial diversity on several commonly used ecological parameters (species estimation, diversity indices, and evenness). We also examined variation in phylogenetic placement based on multiple commonly used approaches (ARB alignments and multiple RDP tools). The results demonstrate that this soil bacterial community is highly diverse, with 1,714 operational taxonomic units demonstrated and 3,555 estimated (based on the Chao1 richness estimation) at 97% sequence similarity using the 16S rRNA gene. The results also demonstrate a fundamental lack of dominance (i.e., a high degree of evenness), with 82% of phylotypes being encountered three times or less. The data also indicate that generally accepted cutoff values for phylum-level taxonomic classification might not be as applicable or as general as previously assumed and that such values likely vary between prokaryotic phyla or groups.

A major obstacle in understanding the evolution of Cenozoic climate has been the lack of well dated terrestrial evidence from high-latitude, glaciated regions. Here, we report the discovery of exceptionally well preserved fossils of lacustrine and terrestrial organisms from the McMurdo Dry Valleys sector of the Transantarctic Mountains for which we have established a precise radiometric chronology. The fossils, which include diatoms, palynomorphs, mosses, ostracodes, and insects, represent the last vestige of a tundra community that inhabited the mountains before stepped cooling that first brought a full polar climate to Antarctica. Paleoecological analyses, 40 Ar/ 39 Ar analyses of associated ash fall, and climate inferences from glaciological modeling together suggest that mean summer temperatures in the region cooled by at least 8°C between 14.07 ± 0.05 Ma and 13.85 ± 0.03 Ma. These results provide novel constraints for the timing and amplitude of middle-Miocene cooling in Antarctica and reveal the ecological legacy of this global climate transition.

We present the results of the first ice sheet model intercomparison project for higher-order and full-Stokes ice sheet models. These models are compared and verified in a series of six experiments of which one has an analytical solution obtained from a perturbation analysis. The experiments are applied to both 2-D and 3-D geometries; five experiments are steady-state diagnostic, and one has a time-dependent prognostic solution. All participating models give results that are in close agreement. A clear distinction can be made between higher-order models and those that solve the full system of equations. The full-Stokes models show a much smaller spread, hence are in better agreement with one another and with the analytical solution.

[1] The Ferrar Glacier extends from the Taylor Dome, through the Royal Society Range, to the Ross Sea. Its pathway is strongly influenced by large-scale topographic features. Ice thins and flows over these features, like water over a dam. Recently acquired evidence demonstrates that the profile of the Ferrar Glacier has been relatively static for the last ∼4 million years. This long record of stability is in sharp contrast to numerous other features in Antarctica and motivates an exploration of the stability with a numerical model. Large variations in ice thickness along the Ferrar profile make necessary a thermomechanically coupled model which includes higher-order stress terms. Such a model is presented here and then is used to investigate (1) glacial ice flow patterns, (2) stress fields, and (3) sensitivity to climate forcing. In all three cases, the Ferrar Glacier is shown to be generally insensitive to the changes and to have stability consistent with cosmogenic nuclide evidence. The modeling is novel in that the Ferrar Glacier is a member of a class of glaciers which has never before been modeled. Ice flow results indicate that curious flow patterns arise in the glacier, producing very old ice (∼100,000 years) near the surface up glacier of thinning points. This flow pattern is demonstrated to be of consequence when interpreting the inheritance of cosmogenic nuclides in two ways. First, the velocity field is used to determine the maximum time a cobble found on the glacier surface could have been exposed to cosmic radiation. Second, the flow entrains supraglacial material from the glacier's surface, shielding it from cosmic rays for a period, and then deposits the material at the surface down glacier. Both flow effects are discussed in relation to cosmogenic nuclide inheritance and are quantified. The sensitivity of the results to past climates and glacier surfaces is also considered.

[1] Absorption of cosmic rays by atmospheric mass varies temporally due to a redistribution of atmospheric pressure by ice sheets during glaciations, the compression and expansion of the atmosphere due to cooling and warming, and changes in katabatic winds near large ice masses. These atmospheric processes can result in changes in production rates of cosmogenic nuclides which, when integrated over long exposure durations may result in 0% to >5% adjustments in site production rates depending on location. Combining a CCM3 model with imbedded ice sheets for 20 ka, we show that production rates changes (relative to today) are greatest at high elevations (6–7% at 5 km altitude) due to atmospheric compression from decreased temperature. Production rates at specific times for sites near ice sheet margins can be reduced more than 10% due to a combination of katabatic winds draining off the ice sheet margins and atmospheric cooling. Nunatak settings may be significantly affected by the climate effect due to persistent glacial atmospheric conditions. Atmospheric variability may explain some of the disparities among cosmogenic nuclide production rate calibrations.

Recent observations show that ice sheets can respond to climate change on annual to decadal timescales and that the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass at an increasing rate. The current generation of ice sheet models cannot provide credible predictions of ice sheet retreat, as underscored by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fourth Assessment Report (2007). The IPCC provided neither a best estimate nor an upper bound for 21st-century sea level rise because of uncertainties in the dynamic response of ice sheets. In response to this need, a workshop was held at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The workshop was sponsored by the LANL Institute for Geophysics and Planetary Physics, with additional support from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Science Foundation. The workshop's goal was to create a detailed plan (including commitments from individual researchers) for developing, testing, and implementing a Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) to aid in predicting sea level rise. This model will be freely available to the glaciology and climate modeling communities and will be the ice sheet component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), a major contributor to IPCC assessments.

Large ice sheets, such as those presently covering Greenland and Antarctica, are important in driving changes of global climate and sea level. Yet numerical models developed to predict climate change and ice sheet-driven sea level fluctuations have substantial limitations: Poorly represented physical processes in the ice sheet component likely lead to an underestimation of sea level rise forced by a warming climate. The resultant uncertainty in sea level projections, and the implications for climate policy, have been widely discussed since the publication of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [IPCC, 2007]. The assessment report notes that current models do not include “the full effects of changes in ice sheet flow, because a basis in published literature is lacking.” The report also notes that the understanding of rapid dynamical changes in ice flow “is too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level rise.”