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2. An attribution study of very intense rainfall events in Eastern Northeast Brazil

Author

Vasconcelos Junior, Francisco das Chagas, Zachariah, Mariam, Silva, Thiago Luiz do Vale, Santos, Edvânia Pereira dos, Coelho, Caio.A.S., Alves, Lincoln M., Martins, Eduardo Sávio Passos Rodrigues, Köberle, Alexandre C., Singh, Roop, Vahlberg, Maja, Marchezini, Victor, Heinrich, Dorothy, Thalheimer, Lisa, Raju, Emmanuel, Koren, Gerbrand, Philip, Sjoukje Y., Kew, Sarah F., Bonnet, Rémy, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Sun, Jingru, Vecchi, Gabriel, and Otto, Friederike.E.L.

Published
2024
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3. Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021

Author

Philip, Sjoukje Y, Kew, Sarah F, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Anslow, Faron S, Seneviratne, Sonia I, Vautard, Robert, Coumou, Dim, Ebi, Kristie L, Arrighi, Julie, Singh, Roop, van Aalst, Maarten, Marghidan, Carolina Pereira, Wehner, Michael, Yang, Wenchang, Li, Sihan, Schumacher, Dominik L, Hauser, Mathias, Bonnet, Rémy, Luu, Linh N, Lehner, Flavio, Gillett, Nathan, Tradowsky, Jordis S, Vecchi, Gabriel A, Rodell, Chris, Stull, Roland B, Howard, Rosie, and Otto, Friederike EL

Subjects
Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate Change, Climate-Related Exposures and Conditions, Climate Action, Oceanography, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, Climate change science, Geoinformatics
Abstract

Towards the end of June 2021, temperature records were broken by several degrees Celsius in several cities in the Pacific Northwest areas of the US and Canada, leading to spikes in sudden deaths and sharp increases in emergency calls and hospital visits for heat-related illnesses. Here we present a multi-model, multi-method attribution analysis to investigate the extent to which human-induced climate change has influenced the probability and intensity of extreme heat waves in this region. Based on observations, modelling and a classical statistical approach, the occurrence of a heat wave defined as the maximum daily temperature (TXx) observed in the area 45-52N, 119-123W, was found to be virtually impossible without human-caused climate change. The observed temperatures were so extreme that they lay far outside the range of historical temperature observations. This makes it hard to state with confidence how rare the event was. Using a statistical analysis that assumes that the heat wave is part of the same distribution as previous heat waves in this region led to a first-order estimation of the event frequency of the order of once in 1000 years under current climate conditions. Using this assumption and combining the results from the analysis of climate models and weather observations, we found that such a heat wave event would be at least 150 times less common without human-induced climate change. Also, this heat wave was about 2 C hotter than a 1-in-1000-year heat wave would have been in 1850-1900, when global mean temperatures were 1.2 C cooler than today. Looking into the future, in a world with 2 C of global warming (0.8 C warmer than today), a 1000-year event would be another degree hotter. Our results provide a strong warning: our rapidly warming climate is bringing us into uncharted territory with significant consequences for health, well-being and livelihoods. Adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare societies for a very different future.

Published
2022

5. Explaining Extreme Events of 2020 from a Climate Perspective

Author

Stone, Dáithí A., Lawal, Kamoru A., Lennard, Chris, Tadross, Mark, Wolski, Piotr, Wehner, Michael F., Hope, Pandora, Zhao, Mei, Abhik, S., Tolhurst, Gen, McKay, Roseanna C., Rauniyar, Surendra P., Bettio, Lynette, Ramchurn, Avijeet, Lim, Eun-Pa, Pepler, Acacia S., Cowan, Tim, Watkins, Andrew B., Barsugli, Joseph J., Easterling, David R., Arndt, Derek S., Coates, David A., Delworth, Thomas L., Hoerling, Martin P., Johnson, Nathaniel, Kapnick, Sarah B., Kumar, Arun, Kunkel, Kenneth E., Schreck, Carl J., Vose, Russell S., Zhang, Tao, Otto, Friederike E. L., Kew, Sarah, Philip, Sjoukje, Stott, Peter, Van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Hoell, Andrew, Quan, Xiao-Wei, Hoerling, Martin, Fu, Rong, Mankin, Justin, Simpson, Isla, Seager, Richard, He, Cenlin, Lehner, Flavio, Lisonbee, Joel, Livneh, Ben, Sheffield, Amanda, Christidis, Nikolaos, Stott, Peter A., Kam, Jonghun, Min, Seung-Ki, Kim, Yeon-Hee, Kim, Byeong-Hee, Kug, Jong-Seong, Liu, Zhongwei, Eden, Jonathan M., Dieppois, Bastien, Drobyshev, Igor, Gallo, Carolina, Blackett, Matthew, Liu, Yujia, Li, Chao, Sun, Ying, Zwiers, Francis, Zhang, Xuebin, Jiang, Zhihong, Zheng, Fei, Pei, Lin, Yan, Zhongwei, Chen, Deliang, Miao, Shiguang, Yu, Hongyong, Yu, Xiaojing, Zhou, Ziwei, Wang, Yu, Li, Yingxin, Nanding, Nergui, Freychet, Nicolas, Dong, Buwen, Wang, Dongqian, Lott, Fraser C., Tett, Simon F. B., Sparrow, Sarah, Du, Jizeng, Fu, Kaiqi, Wang, Kaicun, Cui, Baoshan, Ma, Yuanyuan, Hu, Zhiyuan, Meng, Xianhong, Liu, Fei, Dong, Wenjie, Tang, Haosu, Wang, Ziyue, Tang, Bin, Ma, Yayu, Tian, Fangxing, Wang, Jun, Jo, Seo-Young, Seong, Min-Gyu, Son, Seok-Woo, Byun, Young-Hwa, Lu, Chunhui, Tradowsky, Jordis S., Bird, Leroy, Kreft, Peter V., Rosier, Suzanne M., Soltanzadeh, Iman, Bodeker, Greg E., Qian, Cheng, Ye, Yangbo, Zhang, Wenxia, Zhou, Tianjun, Kawase, Hiroaki, Watanabe, Shunichi, Hirockawa, Yasutaka, Imada, Yukiko, Luo, Fu, Wang, Shanshan, He, Yongli, Wang, Yanxin, and Wang, Hao

Published
2022

7. Attribution of the heavy rainfall events leading to severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021

Author

Tradowsky, Jordis S., Philip, Sjoukje Y., Kreienkamp, Frank, Kew, Sarah F., Lorenz, Philip, Arrighi, Julie, Bettmann, Thomas, Caluwaerts, Steven, Chan, Steven C., De Cruz, Lesley, de Vries, Hylke, Demuth, Norbert, Ferrone, Andrew, Fischer, Erich M., Fowler, Hayley J., Goergen, Klaus, Heinrich, Dorothy, Henrichs, Yvonne, Kaspar, Frank, Lenderink, Geert, Nilson, Enno, Otto, Friederike E. L., Ragone, Francesco, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Singh, Roop K., Skålevåg, Amalie, Termonia, Piet, Thalheimer, Lisa, van Aalst, Maarten, Van den Bergh, Joris, Van de Vyver, Hans, Vannitsem, Stéphane, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Van Schaeybroeck, Bert, Vautard, Robert, Vonk, Demi, and Wanders, Niko

Published
2023
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8. EXPLAINING EXTREME EVENTS OF 2016 : From A Climate Perspective

Author

Herring, Stephanie C., Christidi, Nikolaos, Hoell, Andrew, Kossin, James P., Schreck, Carl J., Stott, Peter A., Webb, Robert S., Werner, Francisco E., Knutson, Thomas R., Kam, Jonghun, Zeng, Fanrong, Wittenberg, Andrew T., Brainard, Russell E., Oliver, Thomas, McPhaden, Michael J., Cohen, Anne, Venegas, Robert o, Heenan, Adel, Vargas-Ángel, Bernardo, Rotjan, Randi, Mangubhai, Sangeeta, Flint, Elizabeth, Hunter, Susan A., Oliver, Eric C. J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Holbrook, Neil J., Bindoff, Nathaniel L., Tett, Simon F. B., Falk, Alexander, Rogers, Megan, Spuler, Fiona, Turner, Calum, Wainwright, Joshua, Dimdore-Miles, Oscar, Knight, Sam, Freychet, Nicolas, Mineter, Michael J., Lehmann, Caroline E. R., Martins, Eduardo S. P. R., Coelho, Caio A. S., Haarsma, Rein, Otto, Friederike E. L., King, Andrew D., van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Kew, Sarah, Philip, Sjoukje, Vasconcelos, Francisco C., Cullen, Heidi, Jézéquel, Aglaé, Yiou, Pascal, Radanovics, Sabine, Vautard, Robert, Sippel, Sebastian, El-Madany, Tarek S., Migliavacca, Mirco, Mahecha, Miguel D., Carrara, Arnaud, Flach, Milan, Kaminski, Thomas, Otto, Friederike E. L., Thonicke, Kirsten, Vossbeck, Michael, Reichstein, Markus, Yuan, Xing, Wang, Linying, Wood, Eric F., Funk, Chris, Davenport, Frank, Harrison, Laura, Magadzire, Tamuka, Galu, Gideon, Artan, Guleid A., Shukla, Shraddhanand, Korecha, Diriba, Indeje, Matayo, Pomposi, Catherine, Macharia, Denis, Husak, Gregory, Nsadisa, Faka Dieudonne, Imada, Yukiko, Shiogama, Hideo, Takahashi, Chiharu, Watanabe, Masahiro, Mori, Masato, Kamae, Youichi, Maeda, Shuhei, Sun, Qiaohong, Miao, Chiyuan, Zhou, Chunlüe, Wang, Kaicun, Qi, Dan, Yuan, Xing, Wang, Shanshan, Hu, Zeng-Zhen, Qian, Cheng, Wang, Jun, Dong, Siyan, Yin, Hong, Burke, Claire, Ciavarella, Andrew, Dong, Buwen, Freychet, Nicolas, Lott, Fraser C., Tett, Simon F. B., Sun, Ying, Hu, Ting, Zhang, Xuebin, Wan, Hui, Stott, Peter, Lu, Chunhui, Christidis, Nikolaos, Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan, Ciavarella, Andrew, Stott, Peter A., Hope, Pandora, Lim, Eun-Pa, Hendon, Harry, Wang, Guomin, Lewis, Sophie C., Mallela, Jennie, Grose, Michael R., Black, Mitchell, Risbey, James S., Uhe, Peter, Hope, Pandora K., Haustein, Karsten, Mitchell, Dann, Stott, Peter A., Christidis, Nikos, Herring, Stephanie C., Hoell, Andrew, Kossin, James P., and Schreck, Carl J.

Published
2018

10. Frontiers in attributing climate extremes and associated impacts.

Author

Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Alexander, Lisa V., King, Andrew D., Kew, Sarah F., Philip, Sjoukje Y., Barnes, Clair, Maraun, Douglas, Stuart-Smith, Rupert F., Jézéquel, Aglaé, Bevacqua, Emanuele, Burgess, Samantha, Fischer, Erich, Hegerl, Gabriele C., Kimutai, Joyce, Koren, Gerbrand, Lawal, Kamoru Abiodun, Min, Seung-Ki, New, Mark, Odoulami, Romaric C., and Patricola, Christina M.

Subjects
CLIMATE change, CAPACITY building, ATMOSPHERIC models, ENVIRONMENTAL sciences, CLIMATE extremes
Abstract

The field of extreme event attribution (EEA) has rapidly developed over the last two decades. Various methods have been developed and implemented, physical modelling capabilities have generally improved, the field of impact attribution has emerged, and assessments serve as a popular communication tool for conveying how climate change is influencing weather and climate events in the lived experience. However, a number of non-trivial challenges still remain that must be addressed by the community to secure further advancement of the field whilst ensuring scientific rigour and the appropriate use of attribution findings by stakeholders and associated applications. As part of a concept series commissioned by the World Climate Research Programme, this article discusses contemporary developments and challenges over six key domains relevant to EEA, and provides recommendations of where focus in the EEA field should be concentrated over the coming decade. These six domains are: (1) observations in the context of EEA; (2) extreme event definitions; (3) statistical methods; (4) physical modelling methods; (5) impact attribution; and (6) communication. Broadly, recommendations call for increased EEA assessments and capacity building, particularly for more vulnerable regions; contemporary guidelines for assessing the suitability of physical climate models; establishing best-practice methodologies for EEA on compound and record-shattering extremes; co-ordinated interdisciplinary engagement to develop scaffolding for impact attribution assessments and their suitability for use in broader applications; and increased and ongoing investment in EEA communication. To address these recommendations requires significant developments in multiple fields that either underpin (e.g., observations and monitoring; climate modelling) or are closely related to (e.g., compound and record-shattering events; climate impacts) EEA, as well as working consistently with experts outside of attribution and climate science more generally. However, if approached with investment, dedication, and coordination, tackling these challenges over the next decade will ensure robust EEA analysis, with tangible benefits to the broader global community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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11. Changing dynamics of Western European summertime cut‐off lows: A case study of the July 2021 flood event.

Author

Thompson, Vikki, Coumou, Dim, Galfi, Vera Melinda, Happé, Tamara, Kew, Sarah, Pinto, Izidine, Philip, Sjoukje, de Vries, Hylke, and van der Wiel, Karin

Subjects
CLIMATE extremes, ATMOSPHERIC circulation, ATMOSPHERIC models, RAINFALL, PRECIPITABLE water
Abstract

In July 2021, a cut‐off low‐pressure system brought extreme precipitation to Western Europe. Record daily rainfall totals led to flooding that caused loss of life and substantial damage to infrastructure. Climate change can amplify rainfall extremes via thermodynamic processes, but the role of dynamical changes is uncertain. We assess how the dynamics involved in this particular event are changing using flow analogues. Using past and present periods in reanalyses and large ensemble climate model data of the present‐day climate and 2°C warmer climate, we find that the best flow analogues become more similar to the cut‐off low‐pressure system observed over Western Europe in 2021. This may imply that extreme rain events will occur more frequently in the future. Moreover, the magnitude of the analogue lows has deepened, and the associated air masses contain more precipitable water. Simulations of future climate show similar events of the future could lead to intense rainfall further east than in the current climate, due to a shift of the pattern. Such unprecedented events can have large consequences for society, we need to mitigate and adapt to reduce future impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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12. Interplay between climate change and climate variability: the 2022 drought in Central South America

Author

Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, Environmental Sciences, Arias, Paola A., Rivera, Juan Antonio, Sörensson, Anna A., Zachariah, Mariam, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Vecchi, Gabriel A., Otto, Friederike E. L., Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, Environmental Sciences, Arias, Paola A., Rivera, Juan Antonio, Sörensson, Anna A., Zachariah, Mariam, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Vecchi, Gabriel A., and Otto, Friederike E. L.

Published
2024

13. Interplay between climate change and climate variability:the 2022 drought in Central South America

Author

Arias, Paola A., Rivera, Juan Antonio, Sörensson, Anna A., Zachariah, Mariam, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Vecchi, Gabriel A., Otto, Friederike E.L., Arias, Paola A., Rivera, Juan Antonio, Sörensson, Anna A., Zachariah, Mariam, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Vecchi, Gabriel A., and Otto, Friederike E.L.

Abstract

Since 2019, Central South America (CSA) has been reeling under drought conditions, with the last 4 months of 2022 receiving only 44% of the average total precipitation. Simultaneously to the drought, a series of record-breaking heat waves has affected the region. The rainfall deficit during October–November-December (OND) is highly correlated with the Niño3.4 index, indicating that the OND 2022 rainfall deficit is partly driven by La Niña, as observed in previous droughts in this region. To identify whether human-induced climate change was also a driver of the OND 2022 rainfall deficit, we analysed precipitation over the most impacted region. Our findings revealed a pattern of decreased rainfall over the past 40 years, although we cannot definitively conclude whether this trend exceeds what would be expected from natural variations. To clarify if this trend can be attributed to climate change, we looked at 1-in-20-year low rainfall events over the same region in climate models. The models show that the severity of low rainfall events decreases (i.e. they become wetter, the opposite of the trend observed in most weather records), although this trend is again not significant and is compatible with natural variability. Therefore, we cannot attribute the low rainfall to climate change. Moreover, our analysis of effective precipitation potential (evapotranspiration minus rainfall) shows that, in climate models, the increase in temperature does partly compensate for the increase in rainfall but only to offset the wetting, and does not lead to a significant climate change signal in effective precipitation. However, higher temperatures in the region, which have been attributed to climate change, decreased water availability in the models in late 2022, indicating that climate change probably reduced water availability over this period also in the observations, increasing agricultural drought, although this study did not quantify this effect. This means that even though th

Published
2024

14. Human-Induced Climate Change Increased 2021-2022 Drought Severity in Horn of Africa

Author

Kimutai, Joyce, primary, Barnes, Clair, additional, Zachariah, Mariam, additional, Philip, Sjoukje, additional, Kew, Sarah, additional, Pinto, Izidine, additional, Wolski, Piotr, additional, Koren, Gerbrand, additional, Vecchi, Gabriel, additional, Yang, Wenchang, additional, Li, Sihan, additional, Vahlberg, Maja, additional, Heinrich, Dorothy, additional, Arrighi, Julie, additional, Marghidan, Carolina Pereira, additional, Thalheimer, Lisa, additional, Singh, Roop, additional, Kane, Cheikh, additional, Raju, Emmanuel, additional, and Otto, Friedereke EL, additional

Published
2024
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16. EXPLAINING EXTREME EVENTS OF 2017 : From A Climate Perspective

Author

Herring, Stephanie C., Christidis, Nikolaos, Hoell, Andrew, Hoerling, Marty, Stott, Peter A., Owen, Rebecca, Vano, Julie A., Dettinger, Michael D., Cifelli, Rob, Curtis, David, Dufour, Alexis, Miller, Kathleen, Olsen, J. Rolf, Wilson, Anna M., Nerem, R. S., Fasullo, J., Hoell, Andrew, Perlwitz, Judith, Dewes, Candida, Wolter, Klaus, Rangwala, Imtiaz, Quan, Xiao-Wei, Eischeid, Jon, Wang, Hailan, Schubert, Siegfried D., Koster, Randal D., Chang, Yehui, Christidis, Nikolaos, Betts, Richard A., Stott, Peter A., de Abreu, Rafael C., Cunningham, Christopher, Rudorff, Conrado M., Rudorff, Natalia, Abatan, Abayomi A., Dong, Buwen, Lott, Fraser C., Tett, Simon F. B., Sparrow, Sarah N., Navarro, Juan C. Acosta, Ortega, Pablo, García-Serrano, Javier, Guemas, Virginie, Tourigny, Etienne, Cruz-García, Rubén, Massonnet, François, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J., Kew, Sarah F., Philip, Sjoukje Y., van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Otto, Friederike E. L., Vautard, Robert, van der Schrier, Gerard, Funk, Chris, Hoell, Andrew, Nicholson, Sharon, Korecha, Diriba, Galu, Gideon, Artan, Guleid, Teshome, Fetene, Hailermariam, Kinfe, Segele, Zewdu, Harrison, Laura, Tadege, Abebe, Atheru, Zachary, Pomposi, Catherine, Pedreros, Diego, Rimi, Ruksana H., Haustein, Karsten, Barbour, Emily J., Allen, Myles R., Takahashi, Chiharu, Shiogama, Hideo, Imada, Yukiko, Kosaka, Yu, Mori, Masato, Arai, Miki, Kamae, Youichi, Watanabe, Masahiro, Min, Seung-Ki, Kim, Yeon-Hee, Park, In-Hong, Lee, Donghyun, Sparrow, Sarah, Wallom, David, Stone, Dáithí, Sun, Ying, Dong, Siyan, Zhang, Xuebin, Stott, Peter, Hu, Ting, Wang, Shanshan, Yuan, Xing, Wu, Renguang, Chen, Yang, Chen, Wei, Su, Qin, Luo, Feifei, Sparrow, Sarah, Tian, Fangxing, Dong, Buwen, Tett, Simon F. B., Lott, Fraser C., Wallom, David, Zhou, Chunlüe, Wang, Kaicun, Qi, Dan, Tan, Jianguo, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., King, A. D., Cougnon, E. A., Grose, M. R., Oliver, E. C. J., Holbrook, N. J., Lewis, S. C., Pourasghar, F., Hope, Pandora, Black, Mitchell T., Lim, Eun-Pa, Dowdy, Andrew, Wang, Guomin, Pepler, Acacia S., and Fawcett, Robert J. B.

Published
2019

21. Attribution Analysis of the Ethiopian Drought of 2015

Author

Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah F., van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Otto, Friederike, O’Keefe, Sarah, Haustein, Karsten, King, Andrew, Zegeye, Abiy, Eshetu, Zewdu, Hailemariam, Kinfe, Singh, Roop, Jjemba, Eddie, Funk, Chris, and Cullen, Heidi

Published
2018

22. Challenges in the attribution of river flood events

Author

Scussolini, Paolo, primary, Luu, Linh Nhat, additional, Philip, Sjoukje, additional, Berghuijs, Wouter R., additional, Eilander, Dirk, additional, Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H., additional, Kew, Sarah F., additional, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, additional, Toonen, Willem H. J., additional, Volkholz, Jan, additional, and Coumou, Dim, additional

Published
2023
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23. Interplay between climate change and climate variability: the 2022 drought in Central South America

Author

Arias, Paola A., primary, Rivera, Juan Antonio, additional, Sörensson, Anna A., additional, Zachariah, Mariam, additional, Barnes, Clair, additional, Philip, Sjoukje, additional, Kew, Sarah, additional, Vautard, Robert, additional, Koren, Gerbrand, additional, Pinto, Izidine, additional, Vahlberg, Maja, additional, Singh, Roop, additional, Raju, Emmanuel, additional, Li, Sihan, additional, Yang, Wenchang, additional, Vecchi, Gabriel A., additional, and Otto, Friederike E. L., additional

Published
2023
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25. Challenges in the attribution of river flood events.

Author

Scussolini, Paolo, Luu, Linh Nhat, Philip, Sjoukje, Berghuijs, Wouter R., Eilander, Dirk, Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H., Kew, Sarah F., van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Toonen, Willem H. J., Volkholz, Jan, and Coumou, Dim

Subjects
FLOODS, FLOOD risk, DAM design & construction, HYDROLOGIC models, GLOBAL warming, CLIMATE change
Abstract

Advances in the field of extreme event attribution allow to estimate how anthropogenic global warming affects the odds of individual climate disasters, such as river floods. Extreme event attribution typically uses precipitation as proxy for flooding. However, hydrological processes and antecedent conditions make the relation between precipitation and floods highly nonlinear. In addition, hydrology acknowledges that changes in floods can be strongly driven by changes in land‐cover and by other human interventions in the hydrological system, such as irrigation and construction of dams. These drivers can either amplify, dampen or outweigh the effect of climate change on local flood occurrence. Neglecting these processes and drivers can lead to incorrect flood attribution. Including flooding explicitly, that is, using data and models of hydrology and hydrodynamics that can represent the relevant hydrological processes, will lead to more robust event attribution, and will account for the role of other drivers beyond climate change. Existing attempts are incomplete. We argue that the existing probabilistic framework for extreme event attribution can be extended to explicitly include floods for near‐natural cases, where flood occurrence was unlikely to be influenced by land‐cover change and human hydrological interventions. However, for the many cases where this assumption is not valid, a multi‐driver framework for conditional event attribution needs to be established. Explicit flood attribution will have to grapple with uncertainties from lack of observations and compounding from the many processes involved. Further, it requires collaboration between climatologists and hydrologists, and promises to better address the needs of flood risk management. This article is categorized under:Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate ChangePaleoclimates and Current Trends > Detection and AttributionAssessing Impacts of Climate Change > Observed Impacts of Climate Change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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26. THE EXCEPTIONAL SUMMER HEAT WAVE IN SOUTHERN EUROPE 2017

Author

Kew, Sarah F., Philip, Sjoukje Y., van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Otto, Friederike E.L., Vautard, Robert, and van der Schrier, Gerard

Subjects
Europe -- Environmental aspects, Mediterranean region -- Environmental aspects, Meteorological research, Human-environment interactions -- Research, Hot weather -- Research, Business, Earth sciences
Abstract

Across the Euro-Mediterranean the likelihood of a heat wave at least as hot as summer 2017 is now on the order of 10%. Anthropogenic climate change has increased the odds [...]

Published
2019
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29. Attribution of 2022 early-spring heatwave in India and Pakistan to climate change: lessons in assessing vulnerability and preparedness in reducing impacts

Author

Zachariah, Mariam, primary, T, Arulalan, additional, AchutaRao, Krishna Mirle, additional, Saeed, Fahad, additional, Jha, Roshan, additional, Dhasmana, Manish Kumar, additional, Mondal, Arpita, additional, Bonnet, Remy, additional, Vautard, Robert, additional, Philip, Sjoukje, additional, Kew, Sarah, additional, Vahlberg, Maja, additional, Singh, Roop, additional, Arrighi, Julie, additional, Heinrich, Dorothy, additional, Thalheimer, Lisa, additional, Marghidan, Carolina Pereira, additional, Kapoor, Aditi, additional, van Aalst, Maarten, additional, Raju, Emmanuel, additional, Li, Sihan, additional, Sun, Jingru, additional, Vecchi, Gabriel A, additional, Yang, Wenchang, additional, Hauser, Mathias, additional, Schumacher, Dominik L, additional, Seneviratne, Sonia I, additional, Harrington, Luke James, additional, and Otto, Friederike E L, additional

Published
2023
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30. Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan

Author

Otto, Friederike E L, Zachariah, Mariam, Saeed, Fahad, Siddiqi, Ayesha, Kamil, Shahzad, Mushtaq, Haris, Arulalan, T, AchutaRao, Krishna, Chaithra, S T, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Wolski, Piotr, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Arrighi, Julie, van Aalst, Maarten, Thalheimer, Lisa, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Harrington, Luke J, Clarke, Ben, Otto, Friederike E L, Zachariah, Mariam, Saeed, Fahad, Siddiqi, Ayesha, Kamil, Shahzad, Mushtaq, Haris, Arulalan, T, AchutaRao, Krishna, Chaithra, S T, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Wolski, Piotr, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Arrighi, Julie, van Aalst, Maarten, Thalheimer, Lisa, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Harrington, Luke J, and Clarke, Ben

Abstract

As a direct consequence of extreme monsoon rainfall throughout the summer 2022 season Pakistan experienced the worst flooding in its history. We employ a probabilistic event attribution methodology as well as a detailed assessment of the dynamics to understand the role of climate change in this event. Many of the available state-of-the-art climate models struggle to simulate these rainfall characteristics. Those that pass our evaluation test generally show a much smaller change in likelihood and intensity of extreme rainfall than the trend we found in the observations. This discrepancy suggests that long-term variability, or processes that our evaluation may not capture, can play an important role, rendering it infeasible to quantify the overall role of human-induced climate change. However, the majority of models and observations we have analysed show that intense rainfall has become heavier as Pakistan has warmed. Some of these models suggest climate change could have increased the rainfall intensity up to 50%. The devastating impacts were also driven by the proximity of human settlements, infrastructure (homes, buildings, bridges), and agricultural land to flood plains, inadequate infrastructure, limited ex-ante risk reduction capacity, an outdated river management system, underlying vulnerabilities driven by high poverty rates and socioeconomic factors (e.g. gender, age, income, and education), and ongoing political and economic instability. Both current conditions and the potential further increase in extreme peaks in rainfall over Pakistan in light of anthropogenic climate change, highlight the urgent need to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather in Pakistan.

Published
2023

31. Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan

Author

Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, Environmental Sciences, Otto, Friederike E L, Zachariah, Mariam, Saeed, Fahad, Siddiqi, Ayesha, Kamil, Shahzad, Mushtaq, Haris, Arulalan, T, AchutaRao, Krishna, Chaithra, S T, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Wolski, Piotr, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Arrighi, Julie, van Aalst, Maarten, Thalheimer, Lisa, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Harrington, Luke J, Clarke, Ben, Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, Environmental Sciences, Otto, Friederike E L, Zachariah, Mariam, Saeed, Fahad, Siddiqi, Ayesha, Kamil, Shahzad, Mushtaq, Haris, Arulalan, T, AchutaRao, Krishna, Chaithra, S T, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Wolski, Piotr, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Arrighi, Julie, van Aalst, Maarten, Thalheimer, Lisa, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Harrington, Luke J, and Clarke, Ben

Published
2023

32. Attribution of the heavy rainfall events leading to severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021

Author

Landdegradatie en aardobservatie, Landscape functioning, Geocomputation and Hydrology, Tradowsky, Jordis S., Philip, Sjoukje Y., Kreienkamp, Frank, Kew, Sarah F., Lorenz, Philip, Arrighi, Julie, Bettmann, Thomas, Caluwaerts, Steven, Chan, Steven C., De Cruz, Lesley, de Vries, Hylke, Demuth, Norbert, Ferrone, Andrew, Fischer, Erich M., Fowler, Hayley J., Goergen, Klaus, Heinrich, Dorothy, Henrichs, Yvonne, Kaspar, Frank, Lenderink, Geert, Nilson, Enno, Otto, Friederike E.L., Ragone, Francesco, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Singh, Roop K., Skålevåg, Amalie, Termonia, Piet, Thalheimer, Lisa, van Aalst, Maarten, Van den Bergh, Joris, Van de Vyver, Hans, Vannitsem, Stéphane, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Van Schaeybroeck, Bert, Vautard, Robert, Vonk, Demi, Wanders, Niko, Landdegradatie en aardobservatie, Landscape functioning, Geocomputation and Hydrology, Tradowsky, Jordis S., Philip, Sjoukje Y., Kreienkamp, Frank, Kew, Sarah F., Lorenz, Philip, Arrighi, Julie, Bettmann, Thomas, Caluwaerts, Steven, Chan, Steven C., De Cruz, Lesley, de Vries, Hylke, Demuth, Norbert, Ferrone, Andrew, Fischer, Erich M., Fowler, Hayley J., Goergen, Klaus, Heinrich, Dorothy, Henrichs, Yvonne, Kaspar, Frank, Lenderink, Geert, Nilson, Enno, Otto, Friederike E.L., Ragone, Francesco, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Singh, Roop K., Skålevåg, Amalie, Termonia, Piet, Thalheimer, Lisa, van Aalst, Maarten, Van den Bergh, Joris, Van de Vyver, Hans, Vannitsem, Stéphane, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Van Schaeybroeck, Bert, Vautard, Robert, Vonk, Demi, and Wanders, Niko

Published
2023

33. Attribution of 2022 early-spring heatwave in India and Pakistan to climate change:lessons in assessing vulnerability and preparedness in reducing impacts

Author

Zachariah, Mariam, T, Arulalan, Achutarao, Krishna Mirle, Saeed, Fahad, Jha, Roshan, Dhasmana, Manish Kumar, Mondal, Arpita, Bonnet, Remy, Vautard, Robert, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Arrighi, Julie, Heinrich, Dorothy, Thalheimer, Lisa, Marghidan, Carolina Pereira, Kapoor, Aditi, Van Aalst, Maarten, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Sun, Jingru, Vecchi, Gabriel A, Yang, Wenchang, Hauser, Mathias, Schumacher, Dominik L, Seneviratne, Sonia I, Harrington, Luke James, Otto, Friederike E L, Zachariah, Mariam, T, Arulalan, Achutarao, Krishna Mirle, Saeed, Fahad, Jha, Roshan, Dhasmana, Manish Kumar, Mondal, Arpita, Bonnet, Remy, Vautard, Robert, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Arrighi, Julie, Heinrich, Dorothy, Thalheimer, Lisa, Marghidan, Carolina Pereira, Kapoor, Aditi, Van Aalst, Maarten, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Sun, Jingru, Vecchi, Gabriel A, Yang, Wenchang, Hauser, Mathias, Schumacher, Dominik L, Seneviratne, Sonia I, Harrington, Luke James, and Otto, Friederike E L

Abstract

In March 2022, large parts over the north Indian plains including the breadbasket region, and southern Pakistan began experiencing prolonged heat, which continued into May. The event was exacerbated due to prevailing dry conditions in the region, resulting in devastating consequences for public health and agriculture. Using event attribution methods, we analyse the role of human-induced climate change in altering the chances of such an event. To capture the extent of the impacts, we choose March-April average of daily maximum temperature over the most affected region in India and Pakistan as the variable. In observations, the 2022 event has a return period of ~1-in-100 years. For each of the climate models, we then calculate the change in probability and intensity of a 1-in-100 year event between the actual and counterfactual worlds for quantifying the role of climate change. We estimate that human-caused climate change made this heatwave about 1°C hotter and 30 times more likely in the current, 2022 climate, as compared to the 1.2 °C cooler, pre-industrial climate. Under a future global warming of 2°C above pre-industrial levels, heatwaves like this are expected to become even more common (2–20 times more likely) and hotter (by 0-1.5°C) compared to now. Stronger and frequent heat waves in the future will impact vulnerable groups as conditions in some regions exceed limits for human survivability. Therefore, mitigation is essential for avoiding loss of lives and livelihood. Heat Action Plans (HAPs) have proved effective to help reduce heat-related mortality in both countrie, In March 2022, large parts over the north Indian plains including the breadbasket region, and southern Pakistan began experiencing prolonged heat, which continued into May. The event was exacerbated due to prevailing dry conditions in the region, resulting in devastating consequences for public health and agriculture. Using event attribution methods, we analyse the role of human-induced climate change in altering the chances of such an event. To capture the extent of the impacts, we choose March–April average of daily maximum temperature over the most affected region in India and Pakistan as the variable. In observations, the 2022 event has a return period of ∼1-in-100 years. For each of the climate models, we then calculate the change in probability and intensity of a 1-in-100 year event between the actual and counterfactual worlds for quantifying the role of climate change. We estimate that human-caused climate change made this heatwave about 1 °C hotter and 30 times more likely in the current, 2022 climate, as compared to the 1.2 °C cooler, pre-industrial climate. Under a future global warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, heatwaves like this are expected to become even more common (2–20 times more likely) and hotter (by 0 °C–1.5 °C) compared to now. Stronger and frequent heat waves in the future will impact vulnerable groups as conditions in some regions exceed limits for human survivability. Therefore, mitigation is essential for avoiding loss of lives and livelihood. Heat Action Plans have proved effective to help reduce heat-related mortality in both countries.

Published
2023

34. 2022 early-summer heatwave in Southern South America: 60 times more likely due to climate change

Author

Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, Environmental Sciences, Rivera, Juan Antonio, Arias, Paola A. A., Soerensson, Anna A. A., Zachariah, Mariam, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Vecchi, Gabriel A. A., Harrington, Luke J. J., Otto, Friederike E. L., Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, Environmental Sciences, Rivera, Juan Antonio, Arias, Paola A. A., Soerensson, Anna A. A., Zachariah, Mariam, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Vecchi, Gabriel A. A., Harrington, Luke J. J., and Otto, Friederike E. L.

Published
2023

35. 2022 early-summer heatwave in Southern South America: 60 times more likely due to climate change

Author

Rivera , Juan Antonio, Arias, Paola A, Sörensson, Anna A., Zachariah, Mariam, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Vecchi, Gabriel, Harrington, Luke, Otto, Friederike E.L., Rivera , Juan Antonio, Arias, Paola A, Sörensson, Anna A., Zachariah, Mariam, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Vecchi, Gabriel, Harrington, Luke, and Otto, Friederike E.L.

Abstract

A large area including the central-northern part of Argentina, southern Bolivia, central Chile, and most of Paraguay and Uruguay, experienced record-breaking temperatures during two consecutive heatwaves in late November and early December 2022. During the second heatwave, nine locations in northern Argentina registered their highest maximum temperature of December since at least 1961. Our analysis based on observational and reanalysis datasets indicate that South America, like the rest of the world, has experienced heatwaves increasingly frequently in recent years. The December 2022 heatwave has an estimated return time of 1 in 20 years in the current climate, meaning it has about a 5% chance of happening each year. To estimate how human-caused climate change has influenced the likelihood and intensity of the observed heatwave, we combined climate models with the observation-based data. We found that human-caused climate change made the event about 60 times more likely. A heatwave with a return period of 20 years would be about 1.4 °C less hot in a world without anthropogenic global warming. Heatwaves this early in the summer season pose a substantial risk to human health and are potentially lethal. This risk is aggravated by climate change, but also by other factors such as an aging population, urbanisation and the built environment, and individual behavior and susceptibility to the heat. This highlights the importance of attribution studies in a region already threatened and vulnerable to climate change.

Published
2023

36. Detecting the human fingerprint in the summer 2022 western–central European soil drought.

Author

Schumacher, Dominik L., Zachariah, Mariam, Otto, Friederike, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Heinrich, Dorothy, Arrighi, Julie, van Aalst, Maarten, Hauser, Mathias, Hirschi, Martin, Bessenbacher, Verena, Gudmundsson, Lukas, Beaudoing, Hiroko K., Rodell, Matthew, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, and Vecchi, Gabriel A.

Subjects
HUMAN fingerprints, SOIL moisture, GLOBAL warming, ATMOSPHERIC models, DROUGHTS, SOILS, HIGH temperatures
Abstract

In the 2022 summer, western–central Europe and several other regions in the northern extratropics experienced substantial soil moisture deficits in the wake of precipitation shortages and elevated temperatures. Much of Europe has not witnessed a more severe soil drought since at least the mid-20th century, raising the question whether this is a manifestation of our warming climate. Here, we employ a well-established statistical approach to attribute the low 2022 summer soil moisture to human-induced climate change using observation-driven soil moisture estimates and climate models. We find that in western–central Europe, a June–August root zone soil moisture drought such as in 2022 is expected to occur once in 20 years in the present climate but would have occurred only about once per century during preindustrial times. The entire northern extratropics show an even stronger global warming imprint with a 20-fold soil drought probability increase or higher, but we note that the underlying uncertainty is large. Reasons are manifold but include the lack of direct soil moisture observations at the required spatiotemporal scales, the limitations of remotely sensed estimates, and the resulting need to simulate soil moisture with land surface models driven by meteorological data. Nevertheless, observation-based products indicate long-term declining summer soil moisture for both regions, and this tendency is likely fueled by regional warming, while no clear trends emerge for precipitation. Finally, our climate model analysis suggests that under 2 ∘ C global warming, 2022-like soil drought conditions would become twice as likely for western–central Europe compared to today and would take place nearly every year across the northern extratropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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37. 13. A MULTIMETHOD ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF THE PROLONGED NORTHEAST BRAZIL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT (2012-16)

Author

Martins, Eduardo S.P.R., Coelho, Caio A.S., Haarsma, Rein, Otto, Friederike E.L., King, Andrew D., Van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Kew, Sarah, Philip, Sjoukje, Junior, Francisco C. Vasconcelos, and Cullen, Heidi

Subjects
Droughts -- Research -- Brazil, Climate change -- Environmental aspects, Meteorological research, Water shortages -- Causes of, Business, Earth sciences
Abstract

Northeast Brazil experienced profound water shortages in 2016 due to a five-year drought. Using multiple methods, we could not find sufficient evidence that anthropogenic climate change increased drought risk. Introduction. [...]

Published
2018
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39. Supplementary material to "Detecting the human fingerprint in the summer 2022 West-Central European soil drought"

Author

Schumacher, Dominik L., primary, Zachariah, Mariam, additional, Otto, Friederike, additional, Barnes, Clair, additional, Philip, Sjoukje, additional, Kew, Sarah, additional, Vahlberg, Maja, additional, Singh, Roop, additional, Heinrich, Dorothy, additional, Arrighi, Julie, additional, van Aalst, Maarten, additional, Hauser, Mathias, additional, Hirschi, Martin, additional, Bessenbacher, Verena, additional, Gudmundsson, Lukas, additional, Beaudoing, Hiroko K., additional, Rodell, Matthew, additional, Li, Sihan, additional, Yang, Wenchang, additional, Vecchi, Gabriel A., additional, Harrington, Luke J., additional, Lehner, Flavio, additional, Balsamo, Gianpaolo, additional, and Seneviratne, Sonia I., additional

Published
2023
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40. Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan

Author

Otto, Friederike EL, Zachariah, Mariam, Saeed, Fahad, Siddiqi, Ayesha, Kamil, Shahzad, Mushtaq, Haris, Arulalan, T, AchutaRao, Krishna, Chaithra, ST, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Wolski, Piotr, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Arrighi, Julie, Van Aalst, Maarten, Thalheimer, Lisa, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Harrington, Luke J, Clarke, Ben, European Climate Foundation, Commission of the European Communities, Otto, Friederike EL [0000-0001-8166-5917], Saeed, Fahad [0000-0003-1899-9118], Vautard, Robert [0000-0001-5544-9903], Koren, Gerbrand [0000-0002-2275-0713], Thalheimer, Lisa [0000-0002-3737-3586], Yang, Wenchang [0000-0003-0053-9527], Harrington, Luke J [0000-0002-1699-6119], Clarke, Ben [0000-0002-9498-6266], and Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository

Subjects
13 Climate Action, 3701 Atmospheric Sciences, 4101 Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, 37 Earth Sciences, Climate-Related Exposures and Conditions, 41 Environmental Sciences
Abstract

As a direct consequence of extreme monsoon rainfall throughout the summer 2022 season Pakistan experienced the worst flooding in its history. We employ a probabilistic event attribution methodology as well as a detailed assessment of the dynamics to understand the role of climate change in this event. Many of the available state-of-the-art climate models struggle to simulate these rainfall characteristics. Those that pass our evaluation test generally show a much smaller change in likelihood and intensity of extreme rainfall than the trend we found in the observations. This discrepancy suggests that long-term variability, or processes that our evaluation may not capture, can play an important role, rendering it infeasible to quantify the overall role of human-induced climate change. However, the majority of models and observations we have analysed show that intense rainfall has become heavier as Pakistan has warmed. Some of these models suggest climate change could have increased the rainfall intensity up to 50%. The devastating impacts were also driven by the proximity of human settlements, infrastructure (homes, buildings, bridges), and agricultural land to flood plains, inadequate infrastructure, limited ex-ante risk reduction capacity, an outdated river management system, underlying vulnerabilities driven by high poverty rates and socioeconomic factors (e.g. gender, age, income, and education), and ongoing political and economic instability. Both current conditions and the potential further increase in extreme peaks in rainfall over Pakistan in light of anthropogenic climate change, highlight the urgent need to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather in Pakistan.

Published
2023

41. Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan

Author

Otto, Friederike E L, primary, Zachariah, Mariam, additional, Saeed, Fahad, additional, Siddiqi, Ayesha, additional, Kamil, Shahzad, additional, Mushtaq, Haris, additional, Arulalan, T, additional, AchutaRao, Krishna, additional, Chaithra, S T, additional, Barnes, Clair, additional, Philip, Sjoukje, additional, Kew, Sarah, additional, Vautard, Robert, additional, Koren, Gerbrand, additional, Pinto, Izidine, additional, Wolski, Piotr, additional, Vahlberg, Maja, additional, Singh, Roop, additional, Arrighi, Julie, additional, van Aalst, Maarten, additional, Thalheimer, Lisa, additional, Raju, Emmanuel, additional, Li, Sihan, additional, Yang, Wenchang, additional, Harrington, Luke J, additional, and Clarke, Ben, additional

Published
2023
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42. Human influence on growing-period frosts like in early April 2021 in central France

Author

Vautard, Robert, primary, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, additional, Bonnet, Rémy, additional, Li, Sihan, additional, Robin, Yoann, additional, Kew, Sarah, additional, Philip, Sjoukje, additional, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, additional, Dubuisson, Brigitte, additional, Viovy, Nicolas, additional, Reichstein, Markus, additional, Otto, Friederike, additional, and Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, Iñaki, additional

Published
2023
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44. An extreme cold Central European winter such as 1963 is unlikely but still possible despite climate change.

Author

Sippel, Sebastian, Barnes, Clair, Cadiou, Camille, Fischer, Erich, Kew, Sarah, Kretschmer, Marlene, Philip, Sjoukje, Shepherd, Theodore G., Singh, Jitendra, Vautard, Robert, and Yiou, Pascal

Subjects
CLIMATE change, GLOBAL warming, WINTER, ATMOSPHERIC models, INFRASTRUCTURE (Economics)
Abstract

Central European winters have warmed markedly since the mid-20th century. Yet cold winters are still associated with severe societal impacts on energy systems, infrastructure and public health. It is therefore crucial to anticipate storylines of worst-case cold winter conditions, and to understand whether an extremely cold winter, such as the coldest winter in the historical record of Germany in 1963 (−6.3 °C or −3.4 σ seasonal DJF temperature anomaly relative to 1981–2010), is still possible in a warming climate. Here, we first show based on multiple attribution methods that a winter of similar circulation conditions to 1963 would still lead to an extreme seasonal cold anomaly of about −4.9 to −4.7 °C (best estimates across methods) under present-day climate. This would rank as second-coldest winter in the last 75 years. Second, we conceive storylines of worst-case cold winter conditions based on two independent rare event sampling methods (climate model boosting and empirical importance sampling): winter as cold as 1963 is still physically possible in Central Europe today, albeit very unlikely. While cold winter hazards become less frequent and less intense in a warming climate overall, it remains crucial to anticipate the possibility of an extreme cold winter to avoid potential maladaptation and increased vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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45. Limited role of climate change in extreme low rainfall associated with southern Madagascar food insecurity, 2019–21

Author

Harrington, Luke J, primary, Wolski, Piotr, additional, Pinto, Izidine, additional, Ramarosandratana, Anzelà Mamiarisoa, additional, Barimalala, Rondrotiana, additional, Vautard, Robert, additional, Philip, Sjoukje, additional, Kew, Sarah, additional, Singh, Roop, additional, Heinrich, Dorothy, additional, Arrighi, Julie, additional, Raju, Emmanuel, additional, Thalheimer, Lisa, additional, Razanakoto, Thierry, additional, van Aalst, Maarten, additional, Li, Sihan, additional, Bonnet, Remy, additional, Yang, Wenchang, additional, Otto, Friederike E L, additional, and van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, additional

Published
2022
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46. IMILAST : A Community Effort to Intercompare Extratropical Cyclone Detection and Tracking Algorithms

Author

Neu, Urs, Akperov, Mirseid G., Bellenbaum, Nina, Benestad, Rasmus, Blender, Richard, Caballero, Rodrigo, Cocozza, Angela, Dacre, Helen F., Feng, Yang, Fraedrich, Klaus, Grieger, Jens, Gulev, Sergey, Hanley, John, Hewson, Tim, Inatsu, Masaru, Keay, Kevin, Kew, Sarah F., Kindem, Ina, Leckebusch, Gregor C., Liberato, Margarida L. R., Lionello, Piero, Mokhov, Igor I., Pinto, Joaquim G., Raible, Christoph C., Reale, Marco, Rudeva, Irina, Schuster, Mareike, Simmonds, Ian, Sinclair, Mark, Sprenger, Michael, Tilinina, Natalia D., Trigo, Isabel F., Ulbrich, Sven, Ulbrich, Uwe, Wang, Xiaolan L., and Wernli, Heini

Published
2013

47. SUPPLEMENT : IMILAST A Community Effort to Intercompare Extratropical Cyclone Detection and Tracking Algorithms

Author

Neu, Urs, Akperov, Mirseid G., Bellenbaum, Nina, Benestad, Rasmus, Blender, Richard, Caballero, Rodrigo, Cocozza, Angela, Dacre, Helen F., Feng, Yang, Fraedrich, Klaus, Grieger, Jens, Gulev, Sergey, Hanley, John, Hewson, Tim, Inatsu, Masaru, Keay, Kevin, Kew, Sarah F., Kindem, Ina, Leckebusch, Gregor C., Liberato, Margarida L. R., Lionello, Piero, Mokhov, Igor I., Pinto, Joaquim G., Raible, Christoph C., Reale, Marco, Rudeva, Irina, Schuster, Mareike, Simmonds, Ian, Sinclair, Mark, Sprenger, Michael, Tilinina, Natalia D., Trigo, Isabel F., Ulbrich, Sven, Ulbrich, Uwe, Wang, Xiaolan L., and Wernli, Heini

Published
2013

49. Climate change increased heavy rainfall, hitting vulnerable communities in Eastern Northeast Brazil

Author

Zacharia, Mariam, das Chagas Vasconcelos Junior, Francisco, Luiz do Vale Silva, Thiago, dos Santos, Edvania Pereira, dos Santos Coelho, Caio, Muniz Alves, Lincoln, Martins, Eduardo Sávio Passos Rodrigues, Köberle, Alexandre, Singh, Roop, Vahlberg, Maja, Marchezini, Victor, Heinrich, Dorothy, Thalheimer, Lisa, Raju, Emmanuel, Koren, Gerbrand, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Bonnet, Remy, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Sun, Jingru, Vecchi, Gabriel, Otto, Friederike, E.L, Zacharia, Mariam, das Chagas Vasconcelos Junior, Francisco, Luiz do Vale Silva, Thiago, dos Santos, Edvania Pereira, dos Santos Coelho, Caio, Muniz Alves, Lincoln, Martins, Eduardo Sávio Passos Rodrigues, Köberle, Alexandre, Singh, Roop, Vahlberg, Maja, Marchezini, Victor, Heinrich, Dorothy, Thalheimer, Lisa, Raju, Emmanuel, Koren, Gerbrand, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Bonnet, Remy, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Sun, Jingru, Vecchi, Gabriel, and Otto, Friederike, E.L

Published
2022

50. Climate change exacerbated heavy rainfall leading to large scale flooding in highly vulnerable communities in West Africa: World Weather Attribution Scientific Report

Author

Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, Environmental Sciences, Zachariah, Mariam, Barnes, Clair, Wainwright, Caroline, Balogun, Richard Ayodeji, Vondou, Derbetini A., Adefisan, Elijah Adesanya, Olaniyan, Eniola, Lawal, Kamoru Abiodun, Brouillet, Audrey, Sultan, Benjamin, Philip, Sjouke, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Wolski, Piotr, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Kane, Cheikh, van Aalst, Maarten, Thalheimer, Lisa, Li, Sihan, Otto, Frederieke E.L., Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, Environmental Sciences, Zachariah, Mariam, Barnes, Clair, Wainwright, Caroline, Balogun, Richard Ayodeji, Vondou, Derbetini A., Adefisan, Elijah Adesanya, Olaniyan, Eniola, Lawal, Kamoru Abiodun, Brouillet, Audrey, Sultan, Benjamin, Philip, Sjouke, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Wolski, Piotr, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Kane, Cheikh, van Aalst, Maarten, Thalheimer, Lisa, Li, Sihan, and Otto, Frederieke E.L.

Published
2022

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