9 results on '"Mathbout, Shifa"'
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2. Climate Extremes: Characteristics of Dry and Compound Hot - Dry Events in Syria Over the Last 120 Years
- Author
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Mathbout, Shifa, primary and Vide, Javier Martin, additional
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- 2022
- Full Text
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3. Mediterranean-Scale Drought: Regional Datasets for Exceptional Meteorological Drought Events during 1975–2019
- Author
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Mathbout, Shifa, primary, Lopez-Bustins, Joan Albert, additional, Royé, Dominic, additional, and Martin-Vide, Javier, additional
- Published
- 2021
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4. Mediterranean-Scale Drought: Regional Datasets for Exceptional Meteorological Drought Events during 1975–2019
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Universidade de Santiago de Compostela. Departamento de Xeografía, Mathbout, Shifa, López Bustins, Joan Albert, Royé, Dominic, Martín Vide, Javier, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela. Departamento de Xeografía, Mathbout, Shifa, López Bustins, Joan Albert, Royé, Dominic, and Martín Vide, Javier
- Abstract
Drought is one of the most complex climate-related phenomena and is expected to progressively affect our lives by causing very serious environmental and socioeconomic damage by the end of the 21st century. In this study, we have extracted a dataset of exceptional meteorological drought events between 1975 and 2019 at the country and subregional scales. Each drought event was described by its start and end date, intensity, severity, duration, areal extent, peak month and peak area. To define such drought events and their characteristics, separate analyses based on three drought indices were performed at 12-month timescale: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). A multivariate combined drought index (DXI) was developed by merging the previous three indices for more understanding of droughts’ features at the country and subregional levels. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to identify five different drought subregions based on DXI-12 values for 312 Mediterranean stations and a new special score was defined to classify the multi-subregional exceptional drought events across the Mediterranean Basin (MED). The results indicated that extensive drought events occurred more frequently since the late 1990s, showing several drought hotspots in the last decades in the southeastern Mediterranean and northwest Africa. In addition, the results showed that the most severe events were more detected when more than single drought index was used. The highest percentage area under drought was also observed through combining the variations of three drought indices. Furthermore, the drought area in both dry and humid areas in the MED has also experienced a remarkable increase since the late 1990s. Based on a comparison of the drought events during the two periods—1975–1996 and 1997–2019—we find that the current dry conditions in the MED are more severe, intense, and f
- Published
- 2021
5. Spatiotemporal variability of daily precipitation concentration and its relationship to teleconnection patterns over the Mediterranean during 1975–2015
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Mathbout, Shifa, primary, Lopez‐Bustins, Joan Albert, additional, Royé, Dominic, additional, Martin‐Vide, Javier, additional, and Benhamrouche, Aziz, additional
- Published
- 2019
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
6. Spatiotemporal variability of daily precipitation concentration and its relationship to teleconnection patterns over the Mediterranean during 1975–2015.
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Mathbout, Shifa, Lopez‐Bustins, Joan Albert, Royé, Dominic, Martin‐Vide, Javier, and Benhamrouche, Aziz
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TELECONNECTIONS (Climatology) , *PRECIPITATION variability , *NORTH Atlantic oscillation , *SOUTHERN oscillation , *PRECIPITATION anomalies , *TREND analysis - Abstract
This study has addressed the spatiotemporal distribution of the daily rainfall concentration and its relation to the teleconnection patterns across the Mediterranean (MR). Daily concentration index (CI) and the ordered n index (nor) are used at annual time scale to reveal the statistical structure of precipitation across the MR based on 233 daily rainfall series for the period 1975–2015. Eight teleconnection patterns, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Mediterranean Oscillation (MO), Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO), Upper‐Level Mediterranean Oscillation index (ULMO), East Atlantic (EA) pattern, East Atlantic/West Russia (EATL/WRUS) pattern, Scandinavia (SCAND) pattern and Southern Oscillation (SO) at annual time scale are selected. The spatiotemporal patterns in precipitation concentration indices, annual precipitation and their teleconnections with previous large‐scale circulations are investigated. Results show a strong connection between the CI and the nor (r = 0.70, p <.05) which present the same relative areas of high and low concentration. The annual values range from 0.57 to 0.70 for CI and 0.49 to 0.71 for nor index which show a high daily precipitation concentration across the MR. Trend analysis demonstrated mostly significant increasing trends for both indices. This increase is mainly found in south France, northern coastlands of the Iberian Peninsula (IP), Greece and Tunisia. An inverse relationship between the number of rainy days and concentration indices is evident. Both of WeMO and MO can play an important role in modulating rainfall in the northwest Mediterranean. The positive EATL/WRUS phase is mainly connected with positive precipitation mean anomalies in the eastern Mediterranean and vice versa in the west. The high daily precipitation concentration values over south France, northeast Spain, Croatia and Tunisia are linked to the low values of WeMO and high values of EA. These results could pave the way for new possibilities regarding the projection of precipitation concentration and precipitation irregularity in downscaling techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2020
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7. Spatial and temporal analysis of drought variability at several time scales in Syria during 1961–2012
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Mathbout, Shifa, primary, Lopez-Bustins, Joan A., additional, Martin-Vide, Javier, additional, Bech, Joan, additional, and Rodrigo, Fernando S., additional
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- 2018
- Full Text
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8. Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Precipitation Variability and Drought Patterns in the Eastern Mediterranean
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Mathbout, Shifa, Martín Vide, Javier, López Bustins, Joan Albert, and Universitat de Barcelona. Departament de Geografia Física i Anàlisi Geogràfica Regional
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Climatology ,Precipitacions (Meteorologia) ,Mediterráneo (Región) ,Mediterranean Region ,Sequeres ,Precipitaciones atmosféricas ,Ciències Humanes i Socials ,Sequía ,Droughts ,Mediterrània (Regió) ,Precipitations (Meteorology) ,Climatología ,Climatologia - Abstract
As precipitation is a very important parameter of climate and hydrology, exploring spatial and temporal distribution and variation of this variable can give an idea about climate conditions and water resources in the future. Therefore accurate mapping of the temporal and spatial distributions of precipitation is important for many applications in hydrology, climatology, agronomy, ecology and other environmental sciences. In this thesis, spatiotemporal distributions and variations of total annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation of the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) are analysed. The Eastern Mediterranean is one of the most prominent hot spot of climate change in the world further; extreme climatic events such as drought are expected to become more frequent and intense in this region. Main data source is instrumental data of monthly and daily precipitation at 103 and 70 meteorological stations, respectively. Spatial coherence analysis, coefficient of variation (CV), rainfall seasonality index (SI), incomplete gamma distribution and precipitation concentration index (PCI) are applied to evaluate the seasonality and variability of annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation amounts and their distribution. Daily precipitation concentration index (CI) is used as an important index for specifying daily rainfall characteristics. Additionally, rainfall entropy is also calculated for monthly and daily data for finding the most suitable probability distribution under the available information. High to moderate irregularity and rainfall concentration are the two very characteristic features of rainfall in the EM. Highest values of daily CI are detected in the southern parts of the EM. Distribution of annual precipitation CI trends indicate a statistically significant increase in the northern and northwestern regions of the EM. Four meteorological drought indices (DIs) are calculated at monthly time scale, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Modified China Z Index (MCZI), the Statistical Z -scores and the Rainfall Decile based Drought Index (DI) while the Effective Drought Index (EDI) is calculated at daily time scale. All selected DIs with multiple time steps are applied to compute the severity for five time steps of 3, 6, 9, 12 and 24-month, and compared with each other and EDI. The most significant factor affecting the spatial accuracy of drought indices is seasonality. Study of DIs shows that the DIs are highly correlated at same time steps and can alternatively be used and the DIs computed for 6 and 9-month time step are best correlated with each other. SPI and MCZI are more consistent in detecting droughts for different time steps. EDI is found to be best correlated with other DIs when considering all time steps. The investigation shows that the use of an appropriate time step is as important as the type of DI used to identify drought severities. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is employed and reveals the main modes and spatiotemporal variability of seasonal and annual precipitation and droughts over the EM. The preliminary analysis indicated tendencies towards a drier climate due to a statistically significant decrease in annual precipitation over the EM. The analysis of indicators of extreme events reveals a much more complex transformation of the climatic pattern with strong regional and seasonal variation. The results demonstrated that an extreme wet spells in the EM will shorten in all seasons, except autumn. Precipitation extremes are projected to become more pronounced in the northern parts of the EM than in southern ones and tend to be more significant during autumn. Extreme and heavy precipitation events showed a statistically significant decrease in whole parts of the EM and in the southern ones, respectively with a significant decreasing in total precipitation amount. A significant increase in daily intense precipitation events in the northern parts of the EM. In addition, climate extreme indices recommended by the joint World Meteorological Organization (CCL/CLIVAR/JCOMM) Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) are also calculated for daily precipitation data. Finally, Mann- Kendall test, cumulative sum chart (CUSUM), regime shift index (RSI) calculated by a sequential algorithm are applied for detecting the shifts in the means of seasonal and annual precipitations. Mann-Kendall test and the linear slopes of trends are calculated using Sen’s slope estimator to determine the trend magnitude for SPI, CI, extreme precipitation indices, dry and drought periods. The highest decreasing of rainfall amounts is found in spring and winter and these seasons are the overall driving factor of trends in annual precipitation. Overall results of the trend analysis on the reconstructed shows that over last 52 years the drought events are more sever and frequent after 1990s over the EM which reflects negative effects on socio- economic sectors as well as water resources in this region. The findings of this study could be used or extended in further studies in the future to gain insights regarding the precipitation variability, drought patterns and extreme events over the domain of the EM., La precipitación es una variable muy importante del clima y la hidrología. La exploración de su distribución espacial y temporal y su variación puede dar una idea acerca de las condiciones del clima y los recursos hídricos en un futuro. Por lo tanto, el mapeo amento? Preciso de la distribución temporal y espacial resulta importante para muchas aplicaciones ya sea en hidrología, climatología, agronomía, ecología, y otras ciencias ambientales. En esta tesis, se analizan las distribuciones espacio-temporales y variaciones de la precipitación total anual, estacional y mensual en el Mediterráneo Oriental (MO). El Mediterráneo Oriental es uno de los puntos calientes más prominentes al cambio climático por lo que espera que los eventos climáticos extremos, como las sequías, sean más frecuentes e intensas en esta región. La principal fuente de datos es instrumental, de estaciones meteorológicas. Con un total de 103 a escala mensual y 70 a escala diaria. El análisis espacial de coherencia, el coeficiente de variación (CV), el índice de estacionalidad y precipitaciones (SI), la distribución gamma incompleta y el índice de concentración de la precipitación (PCI), se aplican para evaluar la estacionalidad y la variabilidad de las cantidades de precipitación anual, estacional y mensual y su distribución. El índice de concentración de la precipitación diaria (CI) se utiliza como índice imprescindible para la especificación de las características diarias de lluvia. Además, la entropía de las precipitaciones también se calcula para los datos mensuales y diarios con el fin de encontrar la distribución de probabilidad más adecuada de la información disponible. Una irregularidad moderada y la concentración de las precipitaciones son los dos rasgos más característicos de las precipitaciones en la EM. Los valores más altos de CI diario se detectan en las partes meridionales de la EM. La distribución de las tendencias anuales de (CI precipitación) indican un aumento estadísticamente significativo en las regiones del norte y noroeste de la EM. Cuatro índices de sequía meteorológica (DIs) se calculan a escala de tiempo mensual, el Índice de Precipitación Estandarizada (SPI), la modificación de China Índice Z (MCZI), los -scores Z estadísticos y el Índice de Sequía basada precipitaciones débil (DI), mientras que la sequía Efectiva Índice (EDI) se calcula en la escala de tiempo diario. Todos los DIs seleccionados con múltiples pasos de tiempo se aplican para calcular la gravedad durante cinco pasos de tiempo de 3, 6, 9, 12 y 24 meses, y se compararon entre sí y con EDI. El factor más importante que afecta a la precisión espacial de índices de sequía es la estacionalidad. El estudio de DIs muestra que los DI están altamente correlacionados en mismos pasos de tiempo y de forma alternativa se pueden utilizar, y los DI calculados para los pasos de tiempo de 6 y 9 meses son los más correlacionados entre sí. SPI y MCZI son más consistentes en la detección de las sequías para los diferentes pasos de tiempo. El EDI tiene la mejor correlación con otros DIS en diferentes pasos de tiempo. La investigación muestra que el uso de un paso de tiempo apropiado es tan importante como el tipo de DIs utilizado para identificar severidades de sequía. Los análisis de los Componentes Principales (PCA) se emplean y revelan los principales modos de la variabilidad espacio-temporal de la precipitación estacional, anual y también los episodios de las sequías del MO. El análisis preliminar indica tendencias hacia un clima más seco debido a una disminución estadísticamente significativa en la precipitación anual durante el MO. El análisis de los indicadores de los fenómenos extremos revela una transformación mucho más compleja de la pauta climática con fuerte variación regional y estacional. Los resultados demostraron que episodios de lluvia extrema en el EM se acortarán en todas las estaciones, excepto otoño. Las precipitaciones extremas se proyectan a ser más pronunciadas en la parte norte de la MO que en las del sur, y tienden a ser más significativas en el otoño. Eventos extremos de precipitación mostraron una disminución estadísticamente significativa en partes enteras de la EM, y en las del sur, respectivamente, con una significativa disminución en la cantidad total de precipitación y un aumento significativo de las precipitaciones intensas diarias en la parte norte de la EM. Además, los índices de extremos climáticos recomendados por la Organización Meteorológica Mundial (CCL / CLIVAR / CMOMM), con un equipo de expertos sobre detección del cambio climático e índices (ETCCDI), también se calculan para los datos de precipitación diaria. Por último, la prueba de Mann-Kendall, carta suma acumulativa (CUSUM), el índice de cambio de régimen (RSI), calculado mediante un algoritmo secuencial fueron aplicadas para detectar los cambios en el medio de las precipitaciones estacionales y anuales. La prueba de Mann-Kendall y las pistas lineales de las tendencias se calculan utilizando la pendiente estimadora de Sen para determinar la magnitud tendencia de SPI, CI, los índices de precipitación extrema, los períodos secos y sequías. La mayor disminución de las cantidades de lluvia se encuentra en la primavera e invierno. Estas estaciones son el factor de conducción general de las tendencias de la precipitación anual. Y los resultados generales del análisis de las tendencias en los programas reconstruidos indican que durante los últimos 52 años las sequías son más frecuentes después el año 1990 sobre el MO, los cuales reflejan los efectos negativos sobre los sectores socioeconómicos, así como los recursos hídricos en esta región. Los hallazgos de este estudio podrían utilizarse o ampliarse en otros estudios en el futuro para obtener información con respecto a la variabilidad de la precipitación, patrones de sequía y fenómenos extremos sobre el dominio del MO.
- Published
- 2016
9. Relationship between precipitation amounts, precipitation concentration and teleconnection patterns in the Mediterranean basin.
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Mathbout, Shifa, López-Bustins, Joan A., Roy, Dominic, and Vide, Javier Martin
- Subjects
- *
METEOROLOGICAL precipitation - Published
- 2018
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