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Mosquitoes have the potential to transmit a large variety of pathogens to humans and other vertebrate hosts. No effective technique has been found to properly control and reduce the density of mosquito populations in a sustainable manner. Endosymbionts, particularly Wolbachia, represent a promising alternative to control medically important mosquito species and reduce their disease transmission capacity. The presence of Wolbachia endosymbionts was screened in mosquito populations of Guadeloupe Island (French West Indies). Mosquitoes were collected across 39 sites that were representative of major biotopes in Guadeloupe and were categorized into natural, rural and urban landscapes. Natural and rural landscapes showed higher mosquito species diversity when compared to urban landscapes. The presence of Wolbachia was revealed by real-time PCR in six mosquito species belonging to five genera: Deinocerites, Culex, Mansonia, Ochlerotatus and Uranotaenia. Wolbachia was detected in mosquitoes collected at sites attributed to the three landscape categories. However prevalence of Wolbachia infection was heterogeneous among mosquito species and collection sites. Phylogeny based on Wolbachia surface protein (wsp) sequences showed that Wolbachia isolates from field collected mosquitoes were distributed across three major clades belonging to Wolbachia supergroups A and B. Some of the Wolbachia wsp sequences represent new haplotypes. The presence of Wolbachia in Neotropical mosquito species is expected to trigger new research on the control of mosquitoes and the pathogens they transmit. In mosquitoes, Wolbachia is able to reduce the fitness and pathogen transmission, thus being a potential target for population reduction and replacement strategies. Posterropods in terms of public and veterinary health.

International audience; Anaplasmataceae family includes obligate intracellular pathogenic Ehrlichia and endosymbiotic Wolbachia bacteria. A key factor of bacterial pathogenesis and symbiosis with eukaryotic cells is the ability to evade the innate immune system and hijack the host cellular pathways. Anaplasmataceae use effector proteins (T4Es) to manipulate cellular processes in order to survive and proliferate. It is still difficult to predict and study the repertoires of T4Es in Anaplasmataceae. Identifying such type IV effectomes is crucial to comprehend how the bacterium establishes symbiosis or patho-genesis. Deciphering bacterial interactions with mammalian or vector cells will foster development of alternative strategies to fight against the pathogen or prevent pathogen transmission by the vector. We propose a pipeline to identify T4 effectomes in Anaplasmataceae. We first use S4TE 2.0 software as a prediction tool for T4Es. The predicted effectors are confirmed using secretion assays in Legionella pneumophila and with cellular biology approaches. Then, we screen the effectome library for intracellu-lar localization, for particular cellular phenotypes, and for protein partners or chromatin interactions. We then investigate for potential post-translational modifications of effectors after secretion (phosphoryla-tion, truncation). Finally, we do phenotypic screening after ectopic expression in yeast. For each re-markable phenotype, the corresponding effector genes is silenced using PNA technology. This computational based- medium-throughput screening of Anaplasmataceae type IV effectors will accelerate the dissection of bacteria-host mutualistic or pathogenic interactions and will highlight the evolutionary history shared by these bacteria. These results will promote the development of novel strategies to prevent vector-borne transmission of pathogens and alternative therapeutics

Decades of subjection to the policies of separate development in South Africa have left the majority of its people in a state of poverty. One of the solutions to address poverty is the provision of basic needs, which assists poor people to escape the grip of poverty and to participate fully in community life. The scarcity of basic needs, however, prevents poor people from living normal lives. For most poor communities, participation in sport is deemed a low priority activity with basic needs prioritised. The aim of the research was to investigate the influence of the provision of basic needs on sport participation in poor communities. The research methodology included a literature review of theoretical aspects of basic needs and participation in sport, as well as a quantitative household survey conducted in the low income township of Sicelo, located in Southern Gauteng. The results suggest that sport participation levels there are low with just 21 percent of households participating in any type of sport. Findings revealed that the scarcity of basic needs may have a negative impact on sport participation, where the provision of basic needs may possibly enhance the levels of participation. The provision of basic needs such as decent housing, sufficient food and access to essential services, including water and electricity, could allow for increased participation in sport. Recommendations based on the results of the study were formulated to influence policy makers in policy formulation, specifically at the local sphere for low-income communities.Keywords: Basic needs, sport participation, poverty, policy, Sicelo township

Local economic development (LED) has been identified as a prominent tool in the facilitation of the development of local regions. The so-called “LED-triangle” of partners has been identified on the local level as business, government and communities. Business chambers represent business and need to play a leading role in the coordination of, in many cases, stagnating local economies. The objective of this study was to analyse the roles of business chambers in the development of local regions. The Vaal Triangle in South Africa was selected as the study region with its three functional business chambers: the Vanderbijlpark Business Chamber (VBC), the Sasolburg Business Chamber (SBC) and the National African Federated Chamber of Commerce (NAFCOC), Sedibeng branch. The management committees of the three business chambers were interviewed by means of semi-structured interviews and questionnaires which included both quantitative and qualitative assessments. Some of the results indicated that the role of a business chamber should be to allow flow of information, promote network opportunities, assist with the creation of an enabling environment and facilitate entrepreneurship training. Business chambers, together with other role players such as government, play a major role in the facilitation of economic development

The provision of basic needs is one of the integrated approaches to poverty alleviation. This study has its focus on the physical and material components of the concept of basic needs. Physical and material basic needs consist of a bouquet of components which are to a large extent interlink and related. Basic needs components include for example housing, basic services, income, food security and education. This study aims to identify the main basic needs components and also to test the validity and reliability of the basic needs scale used by Afrobarometer known as the "Lived Poverty Index" (LPI) in Africa. The scale officially consists of six statements focusing on basic needs. For the purpose of this study, the authors have added three additional statements, based on the literature review of basic needs, to the LPI. The additional statements complement the six original statements. It was confirmed that the LPI (basic needs) is a one-dimensional construct, and this finding is consistent with findings across various samples and groups within other countries. The study could serve as a standard concerning LPI (basic needs) for communities in South Africa and other developing countries.

The purpose of this study was to determine what role tourism plays in the economic development of local regions. Tourism is globally recognised as one of the largest and fastest growing economic sectors. In developing countries, tourism is specifically seen as a tool to promote economic development, and alleviate poverty as an alternative to other traditional economic sectors such as industrialization. The study was conducted using tourism statistical data from two geographical areas namely the Metsimaholo municipal area and the Emfuleni municipal area (region previously known as the “Vaal-Triangle”), South Africa. Secondary data were used from the Global Insight data base. Global Insight is one of the world’s largest sources of global financial, economic and sectoral data. Data obtained from this source were further analysed, refined and reported on. The results indicated that tourism trips in both areas have shown a steady growth from 2001 to 2013. Within the Emfuleni municipal area, business tourism specifically has shown rapid growth of 8.36 percent per annum, while holiday tourism has grown at a relatively slower rate of 3.31 percent. The Metsimaholo municipal area on the other hand has shown much lower tourism growth. If the two areas in the study region are compared with international standards on the percentage contribution of gross domestic product (GDP) of tourism, the Emfuleni area compares well with a 7.7 percent contribution and Metsimaholo with only a 2.2 percent contribution. Globally the contribution of tourism is between 8 to 10 percent of GDP. Tourism as a low skilled, labour intensive industry, has many benefits for local regions including poverty alleviation and a key sector for local economic development (LED). http://reference.sabinet.co.za/document/EJC172415

Appropriate municipal institutional structures and arrangements are important for successful local economic development (LED), policy development and implementation. The purpose of this article is to analyse the status quo of the municipal institutional arrangements in the local government sphere. While community involvement is critical, changes are required at the institutional level to ensure effective LED. Successful implementation of development strategies and interventions requires appropriate institutional arrangements in the local sphere. Since 1994, local government in South Africa has been tasked to fulfil a developmental role, which places significant pressure on institutional capacities. Due to a lack of capacity, skills, funding and appropriate policies, local government has achieved limited success with its developmental mandate. The Northern Free State region (also known as Fezile Dabi District Municipality) has been selected as the case study region to test the institutional arrangements for LED at the five municipalities (one district municipality and four local municipalities) within the region. The analysis highlights the effect of the lack of institutional arrangements for LED at the municipal level, and that LED is as yet not well embedded in municipal practice. Furthermore, this article seeks to identify possible solutions for LED with specific reference to municipal institutional arrangements. Although this article does not claim to give definitive solutions to the problem which could cause municipalities to fail in delivering on their developmental mandate, it nevertheless serves as a starting point for seeking sustainable solutions for LED institutional arrangements. It should be noted that the physical and socio-economic conditions of a specific locality have an impact on the preferred LED institutional arrangements. This article also provides solutions to foster local development optimally, such as dynamic local leadership, effective partnership formation, skills training and an integrated approach to LED http://www.assadpam.za.net/Portals/5/DocumentsAP/8042%20Administratio%20Publica%2021%20No%204%20for%20web%20copy.pdf

The notion that Local Economic Development (LED) is a mechanism for poverty alleviation has led to heated debates over the last few decades.The two concepts have been intertwined and in some cases, confused with each other. LED strategies usually form part of a comprehensive poverty alleviation plan, a total onslaught on poverty, which are meant to address the socio-economic needs of a specific community, within a defined geographical area. In similar vein, the pillars of any poverty alleviation strategy should, at least, contain strategies such as provision in the basic needs of local people, creation of sustainable economic development, job creation opportunities, development of human resources and skills, ensuring safety and security and a well-managed quality environment. The current weaknesses in government interventions regarding poverty alleviation and LED could be overcome with explicitly “pro-poor” strategies. Such strategies place the formulation of strategies for job creation, sustainable rural and urban development and the central place of poor as the focus of all interventions. Poverty alleviation must be the top priority in a LED strategy and it must be accepted that the poor needs a “safety net” due to their high levels of vulnerability. LED has in some instances being misunderstood as being limited to community projects only. This article explores the theoretical interface of LED strategic planning at the local government sphere in South Africa. The purpose of the article is to highlight the premium of LED as a strategy for poverty alleviation, and to help clear ambiguities on the nature of LED. The article involves a theoretical exposition and practical realities as methodology.

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In dieser Arbeit werden die Eigenschaften keramischer Siliziumnitrid-Pulver verschiedener Hersteller bei der Verarbeitung durch Trockenpressen charakterisiert und der Formgebungsprozeß numerisch simuliert. Um ein besseres Verständnis für die besonderen Eigenschaften keramischer, Pulver zu erreichen, wird ein mikromechanisches Materialmodell entwickelt. Die hier gewonnenen Erkenntnisse fließen in ein gängiges Materialmodell für granulare Materialien (Drucker-Prager Cap) ein. Die Anpassung dieses Modells an die verschiedenen Siliziumnitrid-Pulver erfolgt mit Literaturwerten und über eigene Versuche mit einem instrumentierten Preßwerkzeug. Aus den gemessenen Preßdruck-Gründichtekurven wird das Verfestigungsverhalten bei einfacher und zyklischer Verdichtung in einem Modell beschrieben und freie Parameter numerisch an die Ergebnisse der Experimente angepaßt. Die Reibkoeffizienten der verschiedenen Pulver mit der Matrizenwandung werden im Experiment bestimmt Anschließend wird die Verdichtung beim Trockenpressen mit der Methode der Finiten Element simuliert. Die Rechnungen werden im Experiment überprüft und das Gefüge der Grünlinge im Licht- und im Rasterelektronenmikrioskop untersucht. Nach der systematischen Variation der Herstellungsparameter wird als weitere wichtige Eigenschaft der Grünlinge deren Festigkeit im Doppelringversuch ermittelt. Fraktografische Untersuchungen geben Aufschluß über die bruchauslösenden Fehler.

MCom (Economics), North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2018 There is a need for understanding the movement of freight and its characteristics, because of its importance in promoting efficiency and economic growth. Therefore, freight involves the movement of goods, across infrastructure elements using vehicles, to where people needs them most. Freight movement activities are normally performed by private companies using public infrastructure and governed by regulations that are implemented by public authorities. The study seeks to examine and get insight into freight movement activities, as related to economic growth by the private companies as well as how the public authorities respond in providing necessary public transporting infrastructure, plans and regulations. The National Freight Logistic Strategy defines freight system in South Africa as fraught with inefficiencies at the system and firm levels. There are infrastructure shortfalls and mismatches, the institutional structure of the freight sector is inappropriate, and there is a lack of integrated planning. Information gaps and asymmetries abound, the skill base is deficient and regulatory frameworks are incapable of resolving problems in the industry (Gauteng Fright, 2017:4). The Sedibeng Integrated Transport Plan (ITP) has identified a gap in the need to assess the state of the freight and logistics in the region (Sedibeng District Municipality, 2008:170). The largest contributor to the Gross Value Added by Region (GVA-R) is manufacturing, followed by finance, community services, trade, transport, electricity, construction, mining and agriculture. The total contribution of transport increased from R2.946 billion in 2005 to R3.567 billion in 2015, which amounts to an increase of 2.11% per annum over the last ten years. In Gauteng, contribution increased from R70.623 billion to R98.520 billion over the same period and amounts to an increase of 3.95% per annum, which is above the Sedibeng region. The total employment in transport for the Sedibeng Region increased from 6 558 in 2005 to 11 005 in 2015, which amounts to an increase of 6.78% per annum. Manufacturing, the largest sector in terms of number of employment in the Sedibeng Region, increased from 38 227 in 2005 to 42 405 in 2015, which amounts to 1.09% per annum, over the last ten years. In comparison to the Gauteng Province, which increase its employment in the transport sector from 155,291 in 2005 to 259,726 in 2015, which amounts to 6.73% per annum over the last ten years. The study took a route of pragmatic paradigm, a clear mixed method approach, using qualitative and quantitative questionnaire for respondents. The respondents consisted of 20 top transport-related businesses within the Sedibeng District Municipal region and 8 relevant departments from Gauteng province, Sedibeng district and local municipalities. The departments targeted were Transport, Economic Development, Traffic and Roads, according to their level of authority as related to the function. There were five sets of questionnaires. The first directed to road authorities, second to economic departments, third to traffic departments, fourth to transport departments and fifth to private sector businesses. The survey results showed that there are significant freight movement activities that come in and out of the region. The areas that showed strong trade with the region were the City of Johannesburg, the City of Tshwane and the City of Ekurhuleni. What were also found were significant trading movement activities within the region and noticeable trading with Africa and rest of the world. There was also absence of relationship on freight movement activities between private and public sector. The European Commission affirmed that transport and logistics represent a substantial share of business and of household expenditure. Transport and logistics account to around 9-10% of GDP, 10-15% of production costs of individual companies and 12% of house-holds total final consumption. The People’s Republic of China in 2014, has invested about 8.5% national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to infrastructure with railway increased by 54% in 2015 and planning to increase container terminal by 132% by the year 2020.The African Development Group invested in major project of 240km of roads in the Southern Ethiopia which targets to grow the economy by unlocking the agricultural prospects of the region. There is direct and indirect relationship between transport and economic growth. The developed and developing countries in their studies to grow regional economies came to the same conclusion. The study concluded that the road infrastructure must be given attention and strong cooperation between the private and public sector should be forged for planning the positive contribution of freight movement activities to regional economic development. The study found a strong indication that freight movement activities have a direct relationship with the economic growth in the region. The production and consumption of goods or services contributes towards the economic growth of the region or country. Therefore, the efficient movement of freight adds value to goods or services and contributes to costs of such goods or services. The local economic strategies and studies should also take into account the contribution of transport in regional economy. The development of Regional Freight Transport Strategy is essential in planning for integration of transport, regional economy, regulation, transport infrastructure and institutional arrangement to enhance contribution of transport to economic growth. Masters

MCom (Economics), North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2018 The manufacturing sector plays an integral part in driving industrialisation of a country and inducing economic progression by precipitating structural change, technological innovation, sustainable GDP growth and productive employment. The reason for that rests in the features of the manufacturing sector (e.g. high magnitude of capital; (2) technology, increasing returns as well as the multiplier effects; (3) employment potential; and (4) forward and backward linkages) that collectively corroborate the sector necessary for economic progression. As such, the manufacturing sector impels economic growth and employment in various countries. In South Africa, a resilient manufacturing base is established and, over the years, the country has managed to induce substantial competence in the automotive, metal, chemical, food and beverages, and clothing sectors of manufacturing. However, production in the South African manufacturing sector and its sub-sectors has been experiencing a downswing over the last two decades and this is due to impediments or challenges to effective manufacturing production arising from both the domestic and global constraints. This involves the inadequate electricity supply, high administrative costs, skills inadequacies, antiquated technologies, effects of the 2008/09 global financial crisis and global competition. As a result of the aforementioned constraints, production in the South African manufacturing sector has been lacklustre, despite the efforts undertaken to induce effective South African manufacturing production. The Economic Development Department of South Africa have annunciated that the manufacturing sector has long been a vehicle for economic growth and is one of the labour-absorbing economic sectors in South Africa. Thus, suggesting that the modern-day poor performance of the South African manufacturing sector has mirrored the country’s sluggish GDP growth rates and high unemployment levels. This imposes negative implications to the South African economy. In view of the above discussion, the primary objective of the study is to appraise the existing South African manufacturing base and analyse the impact of production in the manufacturing sector and its predominant sub-sectors on GDP and employment in South Africa. Considering this, the empirical objectives of the study were: (1) to establish the effect of production in the manufacturing sector and its predominant sub-sectors on the South African economy; (2) to analyse the relationship between GDP, employment, production in the manufacturing sector and its predominant sub-sectors in South Africa; and (3) to formulate policy recommendations for improved sectoral development regarding manufacturing production and job creation. In achieving these empirical objectives, secondary data were derived from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). The secondary data used covered a period 1998 Q1 to 2017 Q1 (i.e. 77 quarterly observations) and the choice of using data that covers the aforementioned period was motivated by the availability of data. As such, to analyse the data, an econometric models used included the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and error correction model (ECM). The results of the study indicated that production in the manufacturing sector and its predominant sub-sectors under study has a long-run impact on GDP and employment in the South African economy. However, production in the total manufacturing sector and four (automotive, chemical, food and beverage and metal) of the five predominant sectors of manufacturing under study increases South Africa’s GDP in the long run. In other words, production in the clothing sector decreases South Africa’s GDP in the long run. At the same time, production in the total manufacturing sector and four (i.e. automotive, food and beverage, clothing and metal) of the five predominant sectors of manufacturing under study has a positive long-run impact on employment in the South African economy. That is to say, production in the chemical sector of manufacturing decreases employment in the long run. In the short run, production in the manufacturing sector increases both GDP and employment, however, only production in the automotive and metal sectors of manufacturing increase GDP in the short run. While production in the metal and food and beverages sectors of manufacturing increases employment in the short run. Therefore, based on the discussed empirical findings, the study provides recommendations for improved sectoral development regarding manufacturing production and job creation. The study also concludes that the South African government should spend its limited fiscal resources to support and boost overall effective manufacturing production, as this can induce both GDP growth and employment in the short- and long run. Masters

PhD (Economics), North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2018 The saga encompassing the economy of South Africa during the apartheid era finally came to an end after an expansive series of negotiations among political parties which led to the first ever free elections in the Republic in 1994. Thus, such free elections gave birth to democracy in South Africa with the introduction of local economic development (LED) to improve local economies. Despite the introduction of local economic development (LED), unemployment and poverty remain common to the majority of South Africans. This is illustrated by the fact that the majority of the people in South Africa are without jobs. As an attempt to alleviate such problems, the government has made efforts to minimise unemployment but to no avail as the unemployment rate, for example in Limpopo remained high at 38.4 percent compared to 34 percent in 1994. In addition, the poverty rate in the Capricorn District municipality is recorded at 41.1 percent which is significantly high. Thus, a combination of unemployment and poverty has harboured poor economic growth in the region. In spite of these epidemics, the key sectors are supposed to contribute to or improve local development. Therefore, the aim of the study was to analyse the contribution of key sectors to LED in the Capricorn District. To achieve the aim of the study, the study employed a quantitative research methodology to analyse key economic sectors that contribute to local economic development. The secondary annual data of four municipalities namely Blouberg, Molemole, Polokwane and Lepelle-Nkumpi which comprise the Capricorn District Municipality was used. Notable is that, this secondary annual data was from 1996 to 2015. This gave the researcher a sample size of nineteen years. The data included the local economic development index (LEDI) economic growth (lngrowth), employment (lnemploy) and poverty alleviation (lnnon-poor) as the proxies for local economic development. Thus, the local economic development index, economic growth, employment and poverty alleviation were used as dependent variables. The productivity of all the key sectors in the Capricorn District Municipality were used as independent variables such as the community service sector, trade sector, agriculture sector, tourismsector, construction sector, finance sector, mining sector, manufacturing sector, electricity sector and transport sector. The data was obtained from the Global Insight and the statistical tests were thus used to analyse the trend analysis, descriptive statistics, correlation and a unit root test. The study further employed a panel pooled mean group (PMG) model, based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to test the short-run and long-run relationship. Therefore, four models were estimated namely the local economic development index, economic growth, employment and poverty alleviation. The results of the first model (with LEDI as a dependent variable) showed a positive relationship between the productivity of community service sector, trade sector, construction sector, the finance sector, electricity sector and local economic development. In contrast, the productivity in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors had an inverse relationship with local economic development. The short run showed that 68% of disequilibrium in the municipality is reinstated in the next period provided these sectors improve to influence local economic development. Thus, it takes about 1.45 years for local economic development to adjust to change in the productivity of the key sectors. In the short-run analysis, the productivity in the community service sector, trade sector, agriculture sector and manufacturing sector contributed to local economic development in the short-run. The productivity of the finance sector, construction sector and electricity sector, however, were found to negatively affect local economic development. The second model (with economic growth as a dependent variable) revealed a positive relationship between the productivity of the construction sector, community service sector, finance sector, manufacturing sector, trade sector and transport sector and economic growth in the long-run. The mining sector and tourism sector, however, revealed a negative relationship with economic growth. The short run showed that 48% of disequilibrium in the municipality is reinstated in the next period, thus it takes 2.05 years for economic growth to adjust to change in the productivity of the key sectors. In the short run analysis, the productivity of the construction sector, finance sector, manufacturing sector, mining sector and tourism sector contributed to economic growth in the short-run. The results of the third model, with employment as a dependent variable, showed a positive relationship between the productivity of the trade sector, the tourism sector, the finance sector and employment in the long-run. On the other hand, the productivity of the construction sector, mining sector, agricultural sector, community service sector and manufacturing sector revealed an inverse relationship with employment. In the short-run, the employment model indicated a speed of adjustment of 46 percent. Thus, it takes about 2.13 years for employment to fully adjust to change in the productivity of the key sectors. The key sectors that contributed to employment in the short-run were agriculture, community service sector and manufacturing sector. In contrast, the productivity of the construction sector, finance sector, mining sector, tourism sector and trade sector influenced employment negatively. Furthermore, the results of the last model, with poverty alleviation as a dependent variable showed a positive relationship between the productivity of the tourism sector, finance sector, electricity sector, trade sector and poverty alleviation in the long-run. Conversely, a negative association between poverty and the productivity of the manufacturing, agriculture and construction sectors was established. In the short run, the poverty alleviation model showed a speed of adjustment of -0.6750. Thus, it takes 1.4 years for poverty alleviation to be reinstated with the productivity of key sectors. The key sectors that contributed to poverty alleviation in the short-run were the manufacturing and finance sector. Noteworthy is that, the manufacturing and finance sectors were the most critical sectors promoting LED in the Capricorn District Municipality since, economic growth, poverty alleviation and employment were the most important economic elements in local economic development. As a result thereof, anything that is a barrier to economic growth, poverty alleviation and employment should be eliminated. Thus, the study formulated a strategy for policy implications such as restructuring of agricultural sector, infrastructure development, ensuring capacity of all essential services, improving production methods, prioritising important projects, investing in skill development and technical skills. Doctoral

MCom (Economics), North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2018 Maintaining the growth and sustainability of jobs in a changing global market environment is crucial for establishing an enabling social and economic atmosphere for economic development, growth and wellbeing. Economic theory shows that the trade environment is an important determinant of the domestic economy’s industry productivity, and growth. Factors constituting the trade environment such as trade openness, the exchange rate and foreign direct investment (FDI), may contribute to job creation especially across tradable and non-tradable sectors. Nevertheless, the effect of these factors on job patterns within a fast changing and highly integrated global market economy remains a point of debate. Empirical declarations have presented mixed findings on the subject matter and thus no single empirical consensus has been presented. Meanwhile, economic theory argues that potential effects of the aforementioned trade factors on a country’s job patterns varies according to the orientation of jobs in either tradable or non-tradable sectors. This study examined the effects of trade openness, the real effective exchange rate and FDI on job creation in South Africa’s grouped tradable and grouped non-tradable sectors, as well as the individual tradable and non-tradable private sectors. It thus ascertained the long-run and short-run relationships between South Africa’s tradable and non-tradable jobs against the country’s trade openness, the real effective exchange rate and net-FDI from 1995 to 2016. The study also established the causal direction between trade openness and employment in the tradable and nontradable sectors, the real effective exchange rate and employment in the tradable and non-tradable sectors, as well as FDI and employment in the tradable and non-tradable sectors. Results of employment in the grouped tradable sector and the grouped non-tradable sector were compared with the individual tradable and non-tradable private sectors/and or industries. The study employed various econometric statistical models inclusive of descriptive analyses, Panel Autoregressive Distributive Lag model (ARDL), the standard ARDL bounds test to cointegration, Error Correction Model and Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test. The study also made use of a quantitative research methodology and included time series macro-economic variables such as non-agricultural employment in South Africa’s selected economic sectors (manufacturing, mining, wholesale and retail trade, finance and construction), trade openness, the real effective exchange rate and net-FDI from 1995 to 2016. Employment in the grouped tradable sector revealed a statistically significant and positive longrun relationship with trade openness. The long-run effects of both the real effective exchange rate and net-FDI on employment was not significant. The short-run findings exhibited non-significant relationships between trade openness, the real effective exchange rate and net-FDI with employment in the grouped tradable sector. Moreover, results of employment in individual tradable sectors established no long-run and short-run relationships between employment trade openness, the real effective exchange rate and net-FDI in the mining tradable sector. Employment in the manufacturing tradable sector presented significant and negative long-run relationships with trade openness, the real effective exchange rate and net-FDI. Meanwhile, the short-run findings exhibited a significant and positive relationship between employment in the manufacturing tradable sector with trade openness, and significantly negative for net-FDI. Results of the shortrun relationship between employment in the manufacturing tradable sector with the real effective exchange rate were not significant. Results of the Toda-Yamamoto Granger non-Causality results showed evidence of a bidirectional causal relationship between South Africa’s trade openness and employment within the manufacturing tradable sector. Furthermore, evidence of a significant and positive long-run relationship was revealed between employment in the grouped non-tradable sector with both South Africa’s trade openness and the real effective exchange rate. Employment in the grouped non-tradable sector exhibited no longrun relationship with net-FDI. The short-run results established a significant relationship between employment in the grouped non-tradable sector and the real effective exchange rate. Whereas, the short-run relationship between employment in the grouped non-tradable sector with trade openness and net-FDI was not significant. Findings of employment in the individual non-tradable sectors such the wholesale and retail trade, finance and construction sector, revealed positive and significant long-run relationships between employment in all the individual non-tradable private sectors (wholesale and retail trade, finance and construction) with trade openness and the real effective exchange rate. Nevertheless, there was a negative and significant long-run relationship between employment in the wholesale and retail trade sector with net-FDI, while the long-run relationships between employment in the nontradable individual finance sector and employment in the individual non-tradable construction sector exhibited positive relationships with net-FDI. The short-run findings exhibited insignificant short-run relationships between employment in the wholesale and retail non-tradable sector with trade openness, the real effective exchange and net-FDI. Results revealed a positive short-run relationship between employment in the finance non-tradable sector and trade openness, and negative with the real effective exchange rate. Findings established in the Toda-Yamamoto granger non-causality test further revealed a unidirectional causal relationship from South Africa’s real effective exchange rate and employment in the finance sector. Lastly, employment in the construction non-tradable sector revealed a positive short-run relationship with trade openness, while no significant short-run relationship was revealed between employment in the construction sector with the real effective exchange rate and net-FDI. Conclusively, in light of the tradable and non-tradable grouped sectors, increased trade openness is revealed to have a positive effect on employment in both grouped sectors in the long-run. Such long-run positive effects are only maintained by all non-tradable individual sectors when each private sector is distinctively tested for cointegration. South Africa’s individual tradable sectors however, do not capture the positive employment effects of trade openness in the long-run. The positive employment effects of trade openness are only witnessed in the manufacturing sector’s short-run period, nevertheless, these conditions are not able to be translated towards the long-run. Evenly, no cointegration was found in the mining sector. These findings thus conclusively suggest that South Africa’s increased external exposure to the global market (trade openness) largely favours employment in the grouped non-tradable sector and its distinctive private sectors, as opposed to the tradable sector. Also, with both factors having a negative effect on employment in the long-run, the empirical nature of South Africa’s exchange rate and FDI patterns do not significantly affect employment in the tradable sector, while employment in the mining sector does not respond to changes in the former and latter economic factors having not shown any form of cointegration. The manufacturing sector exhibited a negative and significant relationship. Despite FDI being non-significant, a positive long-run effect on employment was revealed for the real exchange rate and FDI in the grouped non-tradable sector, whilst it was also positive but significant for the finance and construction sectors. Only employment in the wholesale and retail trade sector displayed a negative FDI relationship, but maintained a positive employment and real exchange rate interrelatedness. These results highlight the major differences between the tradable sector and non-tradable sector, as well as their distinct private sectors. The responsiveness of employment in each sector towards trade openness, the real exchange rate and FDI underlining South Africa’s trade environment, has shown distinct patterns depending on whether it is tradable or non-tradable. The employment benefits obtained by one sector may conversely imply a negative effect on the other sector, being tradable or non-tradable. Findings also established that trade openness and the real effective exchange rate hold the most impact on employment or job patterns relative to FDI. This may be led by FDI’s relatively low growth trajectories over the years. Masters

PhD (Economics)--North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2015. Foreign trade is increasingly becoming a powerful tool when it comes to the promotion of economic growth in modern economies. This is especially so in the face of the continued rise of globalisation. In consideration of this fact, this thesis assessed the impact of foreign trade on the growth process of Namibia’s economy for the period stretching from 1990 to 2012. This main objective was further developed into primary, theoretical and empirical objectives. In order to realise these multiple objectives, two modern econometric time series techniques were employed, namely vector autoregressive (VAR) and auto-regression distributed lag (ARDL) models. Based on these two techniques, the following procedures featured during the study: Stationary tests, error correction modelling, co-integration tests, Granger causality tests, generalised impulse response functions and generalised forecast error variance decomposition. The following constitutes the main findings arising from this study: First, the study found that there is a positive relationship among the variables that were investigated. Indeed, this positive relationship suggests that the economy of Namibia can be expanded potentially by means of foreign trade. The result is also in line with economic theory. Secondly, the empirical findings also show that export, foreign direct investment and exchange rate endogenously respond to shocks in economic growth. Thirdly, economic growth itself accounted for most of the innovations that occurred during the period under consideration concerning economic growth. Fourthly, amongst the three explanatory variables used in the model, exports and foreign direct investment contributed more towards innovations in economic growth during the forecast period. Initially, exports and foreign direct investment dominated over the forecast horizon with each contributing almost an equal share of over 5 percent after 12 quarters. Thereafter, exports’ contribution relatively exceeded that of foreign direct investment. Fifthly, it is particularly important to note that the exchange rate variable made the weakest contribution towards explaining economic growth for the forecast period of 24 quarters. In consideration of the general constraints associated with this study, the thesis puts forward a number of proposals for possible further investigation by any theorist who is keen about probing the issue that the thesis investigated. The thesis considers the following as its significant contributions to the existing literature: First, this study primarily examined the relationship between exports and economic growth. By adding the effect of foreign direct investment and exchange rate to the analysis, this study became more comprehensive. This further widens the scope for policymaking for Namibia, as well as other developing economies on a similar route. Secondly, the study employed two modern econometric time series techniques, namely VAR and ARDL models in investigating the research topic under consideration. Most of the related studies that were reviewed either utilised ordinary least squares (OLS) or VAR or ARDL approach on its own. By implication, the results obtained from this study, therefore, are from a technical point of view more robust. Thirdly, through constructive comments, this thesis made valuable contributions to the relevant empirical literature as reviewed during the course of the study. Fourthly, since this study has a focus on Namibia, it provided the opportunity for the thesis to present a comprehensive analysis on issues pertaining to Namibia specifically. Lastly, the various recommendations put forward by this thesis will assist Namibia, as well as other developing countries, on a related path when it comes to formulating policies for the promotion of exports in particular and economic growth in general. Doctoral

MCom (Economics), North-West University, Vanderbijlpark Campus, 2021 The economy of any country, be it developed or developing, is constituted and based on the performance of three major economic sectors, namely the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors. The primary sector is mostly built on primary or natural resources and serves as the supplier to raw materials which are transformed into the semi-final and final products by the secondary sector. Thus, the secondary sector comprises industries whose role is the transformation of raw materials into a usable finished product. Contrary to both primary and secondary sectors that are tangible, the tertiary sector is naturally intangible, and it consists of the provision of various services that include technology, finance, and education. Although the global economy has been evolving from the primary sector to the tertiary sector through the secondary sector, each of these sectors is still playing its significant role in the social and economic development of countries. The secondary sector and its sub-sectors (industries) play an integral and significant role in support of national economic growth. The textile and clothing industry is one of the sub-sectors of the South African secondary sector that play an important role in both economic and social life. During recent decades, the South African manufacturing sector has been faced with serious challenges from both domestic and global constraints. These challenges include the volatile exchange rate, unbalance between imports and exports, high unemployment rate, global competition, output reduction, and negative repercussions of the 2008 global financial crisis. The aforementioned limitations impose adverse implications on the South African economy. Based on the above discussion, the main objective of this study was the assessment of the role of the textile and clothing industry in the South African economy. In support of the primary objective, the study set the following as empirical objectives: (i) to analyse the share of the South African textile and clothing industry towards economic growth and national income; (ii) to analyse the long-run relationships between employments, exports, real effective exchange rate and output of the textile and clothing industry on South African economic growth; (iii) to determine the short-run relationships between exports, employment, real effective exchange rate and output in the textile and clothing industry on South African economic growth; and (iv) to investigate the causal relationships between employment, exports, real effective exchange rate and output in the South African textile and clothing industry and economic growth in the country. Secondary time-series data from 1994 to 2018 acquired from the South African Reserve Bank and Quantec website were used to achieve the above mentioned empirical objectives. The data were analysed using different statistical and econometric approaches. These approaches comprise descriptive statistics, pairwise correlation, unit root, and stationarity tests, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, error correction model (ECM), and the Toda-Yamamoto causality tests. The study findings indicated that the textile and clothing employment, gross value added, and exports and exchange rate are jointly significant to impact on long term behaviour of the South African economy. It was also found that each of the explanatory variables possesses a long term effect on the South African economy. Gross value-added and the exchange rate were found to have more effect on the South African economy compared to the other underlined variables taking into consideration the gravity of effects from the above variables towards economic growth. The results from the ECM analysis suggested that both employment and exports have a positive short term impact on the South African economy whilst the real effective exchange rate negatively impacts the economic short term improvement. Based on the empirical findings, with the aim of the South African economic improvement, the study recommended the promotion of both domestic and foreign direct investment policies; promotion of local firms and domestic markets; labour skills empowerment, innovation, and technology promotion; promotion of textile and clothing production model aiming at high-value markets and export-orientated products; and the introduction and implementation of textile-clothing recycling model. Some constraints accounted for in conducting this study include a limited data sample size, selection of most significant variables in the textile and clothing industry, and the time constraints. Thus, grounded on these limitations, future studies should consider more textile and clothing industry features that may influence the country’s economy; analyse the impact of textile and clothing industry on economic performance using data with low frequency (quarterly or monthly data); and lastly, apply an alternative approach to test the asymmetric effect of the textile and clothing industry on economic growth. Masters

MCom (International Trade), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus Over the last three decades there has been a significant increase in FDI flows across the globe. This attracted the interest to investigate the impact that such an increase in FDI has on the economic growth of a host country. Subsequently, the relationship between FDI and economic growth has become a widely controversial topic among researchers. Theoretically, researchers argue that FDI contributes to economic growth through cross-border technology and information transfer, increasing employment and increasing the skill capacity of a host country. However, this has been challenged by several researchers, arguing that too much FDI threatens domestic companies. East Africa has been on the receiving end of this phenomenon and has become one of the biggest FDI destinations on the African continent. Some East African countries have managed to successfully utilise the increase in FDI, which made the region even more competitive. As more East African countries are changing and implementing new investment policies to attract more foreign investors, this study investigates the impact of FDI on economic growth in selected East African countries. Using a fixed effects panel data analysis, the study first examined the data from 10 selected East African countries over the period 1998-2018. The overall findings show a positive relationship between FDI and economic growth in the selected East African countries. The results are in line with the predictions of similar empirical studies and growth theorists. The study then examined the influence of external factors on the FDI and economic growth nexus. The study found that the FDI and economic growth is vulnerable to external factors, highlighting the importance of a country’s economic structure. Lastly, the study examined whether the relationship between FDI and economic growth differs according to income classification, specifically low income countries and lower-middle income countries. The results show that the growth enhancing potential of FDI is greater in lower-middle income countries. As such, the economic structure and income classification of a country are deemed important growth enhancing factors. Given the importance of FDI for economic growth in East Africa, the study concludes by recommending that investment policies not only focus on attracting FDI, but also promote economic development. FDI can be a valuable development tool for East African countries if it is correctly utilised by the host country. Masters

PhD (Economics), North-West University, Vanderbijlpark Campus, 2020 Labour markets around the world are undergoing significant changes which has seen the rate of secure and stable employment decline significantly. South Africa has also not been spared from this wave of change, where besides the country’s high unemployment rate, both at national level and among the youth by global standards, non-standard employment such as casual and part-time work has been on the rise. At the same time, higher education has also proven to no longer be a guarantee of employment, let alone secure/stable and full-time employment. Such rising labour market instability has therefore necessitated the exploration of alternative measures of labour underutilisation, over and above the typical measures of unemployment. Hence the primary objective of the study was to analyse underemployment among university graduates in South Africa. The empirical process followed in the study was based on the post-positivism paradigm which necessitated the use of a quantitative research approach which entailed primary data collection through a survey. The overall sample size after data cleaning was 576 in total. The survey data was subject to a three stage analysis. Firstly, descriptive statistics of the frequency distribution for discrete data. Secondly, a binary logistic regression to determine factors that contribute or influence underemployment status. Lastly, an OLS regression model was employed where three different types of regressions were used to analyse the determinants of the three types of underemployment. The regressions were conducted based on the three main perceptions of underemployment status as indicated in the newly-validated scale called the Subjective Underemployment Scale (i.e. underpayment, hours’ discrepancy and field). The results of the study showed that 82.6 percent of the sampled graduates were employed (part-time or full time) and that only 17.4 percent were unemployed. Of those that were unemployed, more than 26 percent had been so for more than a year which is indicative of long-term unemployment. The employment findings by gender showed that female graduates constituted a large share of the employed (61.6%) compared to 38.4 percent male graduates. At the same time and as expected, females assumed a large percentage of the unemployed at 63.3 percent compared to males (36.7%). In terms of underemployment, approximately 45 percent of the participants considered themselves underemployed. Concerning the various categories of underemployment, the study found that 36.4 percent were underemployed by income, which entailed workers whose earnings were 20 percent less than what they earned in their previous job1 or 20 percent less than the occupational average income for those in their first jobs. Only 5.1 percent of the sampled graduates were time-underemployed, inter alia, working less than 35 hours a week. About 58.5 percent considered themselves to be underemployed in terms of skills which was defined as those who perceived themselves to be in jobs where they were overqualified or had the most skills and experience that their counterparts in the same jobs. South Africa’s higher education institutions have a history of being dualistic which can be divided into historically advantaged institutions (HAI - white) and historically disadvantaged institutions (HDI - black). The study found that out of 351 young people who graduated from HAI, 42.7 percent were underemployed while of the 124 that graduated from HDI, 52.9 percent were underemployed. The study found that in terms of the specific age categorisation, 45.6 percent of the underemployed participants are between the ages of 25 and 29, 31.6 percent are in the 15-24 age category while 22.8 percent are in the age category of 30-34 years. In addition, despite the findings reporting that more female participants are employed relative to their male counterparts, the study’s findings on gender show that in all the underemployment types, young females are over-represented, which raises concerns of the kinds of employment they are in. About 56 percent of those that were income-underemployed are females compared to 44 percent males. Also, in terms of skills, 64.6 percent of those that were underemployed by skills are females relative to only 35 percent males. These findings are also mirrored in the time-underemployment status suggesting that typical employment indicators do not provide a true picture of employment or rather kinds of jobs that workers are in. Surprisingly, the study found that out of the total number of underemployed participants, 59.9 percent were White, followed by 35.8 percent Blacks, 3.8 percent Coloured and 0.5 percent Asian/Indians. However, within each race group, the findings still mirror themes to emerge from literature that underemployment is more prevalent among non-white workers. In terms of the perceptions, the results show that a larger share of the participants seems to be in agreement with the underpayment factor where the perception seems to be that their jobs were not paying them sufficient income, relative to their counterparts. Similar findings were also observed with regards to the status factor where a substantial number of the participants perceived themselves as being in positions that were inferior to their level of skills and abilities they possess. The results, however, did indicate a disagreement among the participants when it comes to perceiving themselves as being underemployed in terms of working hours. Perceptions relating to involuntary temporary employment similarly to the hours’ discrepancy factor show that a higher number of graduates did not perceive themselves to be involuntary and temporary employment, suggesting that a higher share is in fact in permanent positions of a full-time nature. In terms of the fifth factor which relates to skills, more than 30 percent of the participants in each scale item strongly disagreed with this factor (68.4%). Last but not least, the perception regarding poverty wage employment showed very small differences between those that identified themselves with this factor (48.3%) and those that did not (51.5%). The results of the binary logistic regression confirmed what is already in the literature that the younger graduates were more likely to be underemployed compared to their more mature counterparts, that is, those in the 30-34 age category. With regards to marital status, those that were unmarried have a higher likelihood of being underemployed when contrasted with their married counterparts. In terms of geographical location, the regression results found that urban graduates were less vulnerable to underemployment as compared to their counterparts, which in other words imply that rural graduates were more vulnerable to underemployment. Career guidance was also statistically significant in the model where the study found that graduates who received career guidance were less likely to fall in underemployment and that the odds of this was 0.596 higher than participants who did not receive career guidance. Lastly, in regards with race, Blacks and Coloured youth have an increased probability of being underemployed compared to their White and Asian/Indian counterparts. The second part of the regression analysis entails the use of the OLS model to measure income underemployment, skills underemployment and time underemployment. Pertaining to the first OLS regression on income underemployment, participants who were not married tended to be underpaid which again corresponds with the findings of the logistic regression. Participants who received career guidance perceived themselves as being underemployed due to the income they were receiving at the time of the survey. More findings in terms of age and race show that respondents who were below the age of 24 perceived themselves as underemployed due to the income they were receiving similarly Black youth perceived themselves as being underpaid. The findings of the second OLS regression on skills underemployment showed that again the unmarried graduates were most likely to agree with the perception that they were employed in jobs which were outside their field of studies. In terms of graphical location, the regression analysis found that graduates situated in urban areas tended to agree with the perception that they were underemployed by skills. Lastly, Black graduates relative to white graduates seem to agree with the perception of being underemployed by skills. The third OLS regression found that again, young people in the 15-24 age group are most likely to identify with time underemployment compared to their mature counterparts. In terms of race, Asians/Indians relative to graduates of other races were most likely to be in agreement with perception that they are working less hours than they would like to. From these findings, a model was conceptualised in Figure 7.2 which contributes to a broader understanding of the dynamics present in the South African graduate labour market and may explain the predictors of underemployment among young graduates. Figure 7.3 also provides a framework for reducing graduate underemployment. Government needs to work with higher education institutions and the private sector to try and better prepare graduates for work. It is crucial to go beyond just getting graduates into employment but ensuring that they are in stable and sustainable employment. The main aim should not just be about reducing youth unemployment numbers through any kinds of jobs but good jobs which utilises an individual’s time and skills while at the same time earning decently. There is also a need for graduates to play their part in their career prospects by ensuring that they also are soft-skills ready, and reduce their unrealistic expectations in their initial entry into the labour market. Doctoral

MCom (Economics), North-West University, Vanderbijlpark Campus, 2020 It has become evident that for countries to become sustainable and prosperous, a handful of economic variables have to stable; more specifically political risk has been a growing phenomenon in the 20th century and has been prevalent for many economies including Britain’s Brexit; the trade wars between China and the USA. For South Africa, political instability has evolved into one of the most prominent determinant of economic growth, although unmeasured; one can relate this to the immense government corruption, the Nenegate and parliamentary conflicts that have affected the rand’s volatility and investor confidence through FDI outflows. The study’s primary objective was to analyse the interactions between political risk, the exchange rate and foreign direct investment inflows in South Africa, using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for a period ranging from 1995 to 2018. The study provided a background by delivering a detailed cultivation from a global observation where the impact of political risk and a fluctuating currency ultimately affects foreign direct investment inflows in a specific country. The study will contribute to political risk literature as well as provide insights to policy makers regarding this variable as an important component to economic growth and other macroeconomic variables. In South Africa, the Apartheid era indicated the first signals of interaction between political risk, the real exchange rate and foreign direct investment inflows in the country. The theoretical and empirical review involves studies of developed and developing countries, regarding the interaction amongst political risk, the real exchange rate and foreign direct investment inflows. It was concluded from the study that political risk and the real exchange rate have no short run changes on FDI inflows, while the added balancing variable the gross domestic product was found to poses that short run relationship. It was also established that a long-run relationship between political risk rating (PRR), real effective exchange rate (REER) and inflows exist. Two causal relationships was established, using the Toda-Yamamoto causality test. The real effective exchange rate Granger-causes political risk rating. Foreign direct investment was established to Granger-cause the gross domestic product, whilst no other causal relationship was identified for the real effective exchange rate and the political risk rating. Other sources of political risk in South Africa was relatively high concerning controlling corruption and political stability; 2017 was also accentuated from various results in the study as an eminent turn of South Africa’s progress where the country downgraded to sub-investment by two major credit rating agencies, Fitch and S&P. According to this study, South Africa reached a stage where politics severely affects the Rand value directly and foreign direct investment no longer holds importance. In this regard, the study recommends that, because evidence suggests that political risk seems to affect these relationships, it should be included in policymaking decision as it clearly performs a vital function in South Africa’s economy. The study also gives a recommendation that a baseline for FDI returns should be established in the light that these returns will give insight to further research. Moreover, a framework for political risk rating can also be established in order to remedy the exposure to political risk; further opportunities for research can be the comparisons of the same study and variables for SADC and Sub-Saharan countries and the utilization of panel data instead of time series. Masters

MCom (Economics), North-West University, Vanderbijlpark Campus, 2020 Government plays a crucial role in facilitating and enhancing economic growth and development within a country. The South African government, although faced with many unique socio-economic and macro-economic challenges, makes decisions based on selected economic objectives deemed important. Increasing levels of unemployment, inequality and subdued economic activity are among the challenges identified as most important in much of national economic policy, and remain key issues which the government continues to focus on. The interventionist role of government can be carried out in a variety of ways, including the way government spends collected revenue, the economic policies adopted as well as regulatory framework enforced by the government. However, despite the recognition of the above mentioned challenges the South African government continues to battle against these important issues concerning the overall health of the economy. The study had the primary objective of analysing the impact of the size and type of the South African government on economic growth. This involved categorising types of government spending according to the national budget’s over the period of the study, spending was broken down into three broad categories, namely economic development spending, social welfare spending and spending that went towards servicing the country’s debt. Moreover, the study included indexes such as the Government Effectiveness Index and the Corruption Control Index as variables in order to better understand the current state of affairs within the country, and the possible relationship they may have with economic growth. Furthermore, two main types of economic interventionism were reviewed and discussed, namely the developmental state and the welfare state approach. Contrasting the two mentioned methods of intervention, are key in understanding the behaviour of government and actions taken by government. In order to investigate the aforementioned variables, the study employed both a descriptive and an econometric analysis on the South African government spending patterns and interventionist action. Throughout the descriptive section, trends and graphs were used to analyse variables including government debt, government size, corruption, social welfare spending, economic development spending, government effectiveness and economic growth in South Africa. The econometric analysis ascertains the long-run and short-run relationship between the independent variables (mentioned above) and the dependent variable being economic growth. The study made use of a quantitative research methodology and the sample consisted of 21 annual observations collected for the period 1998 to 2018. The models employed under the econometric section of the study include the correlation matrix, ARDL bounds test for co-integration and the Toda-Yamamoto Granger non- causality test. The correlation matrix found that total government spending, social welfare spending, economic development spending and debt-service spending to have a positive relationship with economic growth, and all of the above variables were statistically significant at the one percent significance level. However, the Corruption Control Index and the Government Effectiveness Index were found to have a negative relationship with economic growth and were statistically significant at the one percent significance level. Long-run relationships were found, using the ARDL bounds test, between the independent variables total government spending, social welfare spending and economic development spending and the dependent variable economic growth. All were statistically significant at the five percent level of significance. The short-run Toda-Yamamoto Granger non-casualty found a unidirectional causal relationship between social welfare spending and economic growth at ten percent. This means that social welfare spending causes economic growth but not the other way around. There is also a bilateral causal relationship between the size of government and government debt-service costs at the one percent level of significance. This means that the size of government Granger causes debt-service costs, and debt-service costs Granger cause the size of government. There is also evidence that economic growth has a bilateral causal relationship with economic development spending at the five percent level of significance. This study contributed to the literature by theoretically and empirically reviewing the role of the South African government in achieving improved economic growth and economic development. This study is one of the few to make use of the ARDL estimation method with regards to disaggregated expenditure and economic growth in South Africa. Masters

PhD (Economics), North-West University, Vanderbijlpark Campus, 2020 The study investigated the impact of financial inclusion on poverty reduction in Manicaland province of Zimbabwe among smallholder farmers, using household data collected through a structured household questionnaire. Further investigation was done on households that were not in farming, to compare the results. Zimbabwe is divided into ten provinces with different demographics and agricultural opportunities. The study, therefore, took Manicaland Province as a case study because of the level of farming activities in the area. The study emanated from the premise of the increasing link between financial inclusion and poverty reduction. Since many households in Zimbabwe managed to get land from the land reform programme, there was, therefore, an interest to investigate if access to finance by the newly resettled farmers can transform to prosperity and poverty reduction. The objectives of the study were two-tiered: the theoretical and empirical. The theoretical objectives were to review literature on theories of poverty and their applicability to developing countries, review measures of poverty and their applicability to the context of developing countries, specifically Zimbabwe, review literature on the measures of financial inclusion, review and analyse a theoretical framework on the determinants of financial inclusion and, finally, highlight the theoretical argument on the relationship between financial inclusion and poverty. The empirical objectives were to: profile poverty and financial inclusion among the smallholder farmers in the sampled area and develop an index to measure financial inclusion, determine the determinants of financial inclusion among smallholder farmers in Zimbabwe as well as to analyse the impact of financial inclusion on poverty in Zimbabwe among smallholder farmers and, finally, make recommendations as to how financial inclusion can be used to deal with poverty in Zimbabwe. The study employed a combination of econometric models to fulfil the objectives of the study. To get the determinants of financial inclusion, the study used the logistic regression, the multinomial logistic regression and multiple regression analysis. This study used different models so that comparisons can be made between results generated from the different models. Since the overarching aim of the study was to investigate the impact of financial inclusion on poverty reduction, the first step taken was to assess the profile of poverty and financial inclusion using the data collected. The data on financial inclusion showed that financial inclusion was low in the province. This was shown by the percentage of households who borrowed, those who saved and those with insurance, for instance, more than 70 percent of household heads indicated that they did not save with formal financial institutions. On the profile of poverty, the study used the various welfare indicators and two measures of poverty, the absolute poverty line and the income plus asset index, to assess the profile of poverty in the province. The two measures of poverty showed that poverty is generally high in the province, especially among the smallholder farmers compared to those who were not in farming. The study went on to assess the determinants of financial inclusion using various models. The factors found to influence financial inclusion from all the models were off-farm income, education level, distance, financial literacy, age of the household, distance, transaction costs and financial literacy, agricultural extension service and size of the household. Using the multiple regression to investigate the determinants of financial inclusion among the smallholder farmers, the study found out that off-farm income, education level, distance to the nearest financial institution, financial literacy and age of the household were the variables significantly influencing financial inclusion. Additionally, the determinants of financial inclusion among the non-farmers were age, the income of the household, education level, distance, transaction costs and financial literacy. The difference between farmers and non-farmers was that non-farmers were further influenced by transaction costs, the costs charged by financial institutions to perform various transactions. The study went on to use the logit model with bank account ownership as a proxy of financial inclusion to investigate further the determinants of financial inclusion so that the results obtained can be compared. However, the analysis showed that there was not much difference in terms of factors influencing financial inclusion. After estimating the logit model, the study found that age of the individual, family size, off-farm income, agricultural extension service, distance to the nearest financial institution and transaction costs were the factors influencing financial inclusion, while for households who were not in farming financial inclusion was influenced by age, household size, income, agricultural extension service, distance to the nearest financial institution and transaction costs. Closely looking at the results, we found out that, when using the index of financial inclusion and bank account ownership, there was not much difference in the determinants of financial inclusion. Agricultural extension service was the additional factor influencing financial inclusion when the logit model was used. Even among the farmers and non-farmers, there was not much difference. The study also investigated the determinants of financial inclusion in terms of the factors influencing households to use different financial services, that is, the factors that influence households to have a transaction account, to save, and to have insurance. Using the multinomial logistic regression for smallholder farmers, the study found that household size, transaction costs, age and agricultural extension service were the factors influencing demand for a transaction account. While off-farm income and age of the household were the factors influencing households to borrow. When households who were not in farming were taken into account, the factors significantly influencing access to a transaction account were household size, age of the individual and distance to the nearest financial access point, while borrowing or credit was influenced by transaction costs, age of the households and off-farm income. Looking closely there were no significant differences in the factors influencing demand for different financial services by households who were farmers and those who were not in farming. Also, the impact of financial inclusion on poverty was investigated using the developed index of financial inclusion and poverty from the two measures, the absolute poverty line and the income plus asset measure. The analysis was done separately for households who were into farming and those households who indicated that were not directly involved in farming. For both farmers and non-farmers, the results indicated that financial inclusion had an impact on poverty. A rise in the level of financial inclusion is associated with a fall in the level of poverty. An additional analysis was done to investigate the impact of various financial services like saving, borrowing, performing transactions and insurance on poverty reduction. The results indicated that having a transaction account and saving were the significant variables in influencing poverty reduction in Zimbabwe. Though other variables were not significant, the negative sign on each of the variables supported our a priori expectation that the access to financial services such as insurance and credit can reduce the level of poverty. The study concluded that policies that are intended to fight poverty should be geared towards promoting financial inclusion. There is also a requirement to create an atmosphere that enables the poor to get access to loans at reasonable interest rates and charges. Agricultural extension services, the establishment of financial access points near the households to promote financial inclusion should continue be the prime goal of the government. There is also the need for the Zimbabwe Statistics Agency to reexamine the definition and measurement of poverty so that government works with practical figures, which are not inflated and sometimes deflated poverty rates that may be reported yearly in the country. Doctoral

PhD (Economics), North-West University, Vanderbijlpark Campus, 2020 The need to attain robust growth and sustainable development has led most sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries to adopt different policies and strategies at various stages of their development since independence. However, owing to distortions in the economic, financial and institutional arrangements in this region in the 1960s, recourse to external debt to galvanise the economies towards a path of sustainable development became the norm from the 1970s. Indeed, in the past few decades, the external debt stock of SSA countries has increased significantly, thus, making the debate on its sustainability and role in financing the development process of these countries particularly important. Moreover, beyond the issue of sustainability or otherwise of foreign borrowing and the controversy over its effect on growth, the impact of institutions in the borrowing countries has also come to the fore in recent years. Thus, this thesis investigated the relationship between external debt, institutional quality and economic growth in SSA countries. The overarching aim of the study was subsequently divided into primary, theoretical and empirical objectives. To achieve the empirical objectives of the study, a quantitative research approach was adopted. Specifically, three major econometric models (one for each empirical objective) were estimated by means of panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique. The first model examined the nonlinear effect of external debt on economic growth, while the second model investigated the channels of transmission between external debt and economic growth. The third model examined the role of institutional quality in the relationship between external debt and economic growth. Each model estimation was preceded by statistical tests: summary of descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and panel unit root tests. While both descriptive statistics and correlation analysis shed light on the various characteristics of the data, results from the panel unit root tests conducted showed that the variables employed in each of the models were of mixed stationarity, in which case some were stationary at level, while others became stationary, only at first difference. Furthermore, annual secondary data between 1985 and 2017 for thirty SSA countries were employed in the study. The data sets were obtained from different sources comprising the World Bank’s WDI and WGI, the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s WEO, the World Penny Table (version 9.1) and the ICRG) database. Results from the panel ARDL regression for investigating the nonlinear effect of external debt on economic growth in SSA reported both long-run and short-run estimates. The long-run PMG estimates established that external debt exerts a nonlinear impact on economic growth in SSA over the study period. In particular, the relationship between the two variables was found to be hump-shaped, which indicates that external debt stock at moderate levels enhances economic growth before reaching a threshold, beyond which it begins to depress economic growth. This threshold was determined for different measures of external debt. On the other hand, the short run estimates established that external debt has no impact on economic growth in the short run. Moreover, these results were found to be robust to alternative measures of external debt. Furthermore, a second set of models were estimated to establish the channels of transmission in the relationship between external debt and economic growth. Results from the PMG estimators affirmed private investment, public investment and total factor productivity as the channels through which the nonlinear effect of external debt is transmitted to economic growth. Furthermore, the PMG estimates confirmed that interest rate is a channel transmitting linear and positive effect from external debt to economic growth. On the other hand, the results established that savings is not a channel of transmission between the two variables. The third model investigated the role of institutional quality in the relationship between external debt and economic growth. Results from the various regressions showed that while external debt exerts a negative effect on economic growth, institutional quality mitigates the adverse effect in countries with good institutions. Furthermore, the minimum level of institutional quality beyond which external debt becomes beneficial to economic growth was determined. The results of the sensitivity analysis conducted also showed that the estimates were robust to alternative measures of institutional quality. The study concludes that SSA countries should drastically reduce their reliance on external debt in their quest to fund their developmental efforts, through efficient use of existing accumulated debt, deepening of tax base, implementation of export-led growth strategy, strict adherence to external debt thresholds and greater emphasis on aids. Further, it is suggested that monetary authorities in SSA should endeavour to stimulate private investment by reducing interest rate, while the government should enhance total factor productivity by providing enabling environment and support for massive acquisition of productive equipment, investing in human capital and by stimulating international best-practice corporate governance. Lastly, the study concludes that there is urgent need for SSA countries to consciously pursue rapid improvement in governance infrastructure. Doctoral

PhD (Economics), North-West University, Vanderbijlpark Campus Labour markets around the world are undergoing significant changes which has seen the rate of secure and stable employment decline significantly. South Africa has also not been spared from this wave of change, where besides the country’s high unemployment rate, both at national level and among the youth by global standards, non-standard employment such as casual and part-time work has been on the rise. At the same time, higher education has also proven to no longer be a guarantee of employment, let alone secure/stable and full-time employment. Such rising labour market instability has therefore necessitated the exploration of alternative measures of labour underutilisation, over and above the typical measures of unemployment. Hence the primary objective of the study was to analyse underemployment among university graduates in South Africa. The empirical process followed in the study was based on the post-positivism paradigm which necessitated the use of a quantitative research approach which entailed primary data collection through a survey. The overall sample size after data cleaning was 576 in total. The survey data was subject to a three stage analysis. Firstly, descriptive statistics of the frequency distribution for discrete data. Secondly, a binary logistic regression to determine factors that contribute or influence underemployment status. Lastly, an OLS regression model was employed where three different types of regressions were used to analyse the determinants of the three types of underemployment. The regressions were conducted based on the three main perceptions of underemployment status as indicated in the newly-validated scale called the Subjective Underemployment Scale (i.e. underpayment, hours’ discrepancy and field). The results of the study showed that 82.6 percent of the sampled graduates were employed (part-time or full time) and that only 17.4 percent were unemployed. Of those that were unemployed, more than 26 percent had been so for more than a year which is indicative of long-term unemployment. The employment findings by gender showed that female graduates constituted a large share of the employed (61.6%) compared to 38.4 percent male graduates. At the same time and as expected, females assumed a large percentage of the unemployed at 63.3 percent compared to males (36.7%). In terms of underemployment, approximately 45 percent of the participants considered themselves underemployed. Concerning the various categories of underemployment, the study found that 36.4 percent were underemployed by income, which entailed workers whose earnings were 20 percent less than what they earned in their previous job1 or 20 percent less than the occupational average income for those in their first jobs. Only 5.1 percent of the sampled graduates were time-underemployed, inter alia, working less than 35 hours a week. About 58.5 percent considered themselves to be underemployed in terms of skills which was defined as those who perceived themselves to be in jobs where they were overqualified or had the most skills and experience that their counterparts in the same jobs. South Africa’s higher education institutions have a history of being dualistic which can be divided into historically advantaged institutions (HAI - white) and historically disadvantaged institutions (HDI - black). The study found that out of 351 young people who graduated from HAI, 42.7 percent were underemployed while of the 124 that graduated from HDI, 52.9 percent were underemployed. The study found that in terms of the specific age categorisation, 45.6 percent of the underemployed participants are between the ages of 25 and 29, 31.6 percent are in the 15-24 age category while 22.8 percent are in the age category of 30-34 years. In addition, despite the findings reporting that more female participants are employed relative to their male counterparts, the study’s findings on gender show that in all the underemployment types, young females are overrepresented, which raises concerns of the kinds of employment they are in. About 56 percent of those that were income-underemployed are females compared to 44 percent males. Also, in terms of skills, 64.6 percent of those that were underemployed by skills are females relative to only 35 percent males. These findings are also mirrored in the time-underemployment status suggesting that typical employment indicators do not provide a true picture of employment or rather kinds of jobs that workers are in. Surprisingly, the study found that out of the total number of underemployed participants, 59.9 percent were White, followed by 35.8 percent Blacks, 3.8 percent Coloured and 0.5 percent Asian/Indians. However, within each race group, the findings still mirror themes to emerge from literature that underemployment is more prevalent among non-white workers. In terms of the perceptions, the results show that a larger share of the participants seems to be in agreement with the underpayment factor where the perception seems to be that their jobs were not paying them sufficient income, relative to their counterparts. Similar findings were also observed with regards to the status factor where a substantial number of the participants perceived themselves as being in positions that were inferior to their level of skills and abilities they possess. The results, however, did indicate a disagreement among the participants when it comes to perceiving themselves as being underemployed in terms of working hours. Perceptions relating to involuntary temporary employment similarly to the hours’ discrepancy factor show that a higher number of graduates did not perceive themselves to be involuntary and temporary employment, suggesting that a higher share is in fact in permanent positions of a full-time nature. In terms of the fifth factor which relates to skills, more than 30 percent of the participants in each scale item strongly disagreed with this factor (68.4%). Last but not least, the perception regarding poverty wage employment showed very small differences between those that identified themselves with this factor (48.3%) and those that did not (51.5%). The results of the binary logistic regression confirmed what is already in the literature that the younger graduates were more likely to be underemployed compared to their more mature counterparts, that is, those in the 30-34 age category. With regards to marital status, those that were unmarried have a higher likelihood of being underemployed when contrasted with their married counterparts. In terms of geographical location, the regression results found that urban graduates were less vulnerable to underemployment as compared to their counterparts, which in other words imply that rural graduates were more vulnerable to underemployment. Career guidance was also statistically significant in the model where the study found that graduates who received career guidance were less likely to fall in underemployment and that the odds of this was 0.596 higher than participants who did not receive career guidance. Lastly, in regards with race, Blacks and Coloured youth have an increased probability of being underemployed compared to their White and Asian/Indian counterparts. The second part of the regression analysis entails the use of the OLS model to measure income underemployment, skills underemployment and time underemployment. Pertaining to the first OLS regression on income underemployment, participants who were not married tended to be underpaid which again corresponds with the findings of the logistic regression. Participants who received career guidance perceived themselves as being underemployed due to the income they were receiving at the time of the survey. More findings in terms of age and race show that respondents who were below the age of 24 perceived themselves as underemployed due to the income they were receiving similarly Black youth perceived themselves as being underpaid. The findings of the second OLS regression on skills underemployment showed that again the unmarried graduates were most likely to agree with the perception that they were employed in jobs which were outside their field of studies. In terms of graphical location, the regression analysis found that graduates situated in urban areas tended to agree with the perception that they were underemployed by skills. Lastly, Black graduates relative to white graduates seem to agree with the perception of being underemployed by skills. The third OLS regression found that again, young people in the 15-24 age group are most likely to identify with time underemployment compared to their mature counterparts. In terms of race, Asians/Indians relative to graduates of other races were most likely to be in agreement with perception that they are working less hours than they would like to. From these findings, a model was conceptualised in Figure 7.2 which contributes to a broader understanding of the dynamics present in the South African graduate labour market and may explain the predictors of underemployment among young graduates. Figure 7.3 also provides a framework for reducing graduate underemployment. Government needs to work with higher education institutions and the private sector to try and better prepare graduates for work. It is crucial to go beyond just getting graduates into employment but ensuring that they are in stable and sustainable employment. The main aim should not just be about reducing youth unemployment numbers through any kinds of jobs but good jobs which utilises an individual’s time and skills while at the same time earning decently. There is also a need for graduates to play their part in their career prospects by ensuring that they also are soft-skills ready, and reduce their unrealistic expectations in their initial entry into the labour market. Doctoral

PhD (Economics), North-West University, Vanderbijlpark Campus, 2020 Various developments spearheaded by social, political and economic behaviour have shaped both the soundness and the vulnerability of the market economy through direct and indirect mechanisms. Retrospective observation of past and present economic and financial patterns indicate that the economy undergoes alternating phases, characterised by periods of recessions and expansions caused by different factors. Knowledge and understanding of such patterns, their basic and scientific nature as well as their causes and potential indicators, has proved to be socially, politically and economically profitable for policy setting, including the uplifting of the social and economic agendas. To prevent or, at least, curb or mitigate the potential effects of likely financial crises, which may resultantly affect both the financial and real economy, it is important that a large contingent of economic agents, specifically investors, scholars and practitioners, predict behavioural dynamics of market fluctuations and their potential ramifications. For an emerging economy such as South Africa’s, ensuring the stability of the financial sector is critical for avoiding further economic stagnation amid pre-existing heightened unemployment, poverty and inequality as well as relatively low growth trajectories. This study examined the co-movement or the explanatory capacity of South Africa’s subcomponent variables of the composite business cycle indicators (BCIs) in explaining the behaviour and patterns of the financial market. Specifically, the financial market’s capital markets included the stock, bond and commodity and exchange rate markets. The aim of the research was to identify whether the component series of the composite BCIs can serve as leading, lagging or coinciding indicators of each of the capital market segments. A diverse set of econometric models and methods were employed. These included the cross-correlations test, the Granger causality model, variance decomposition, the Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) process, and an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Results revealed that South Africa’s official component series of the composite BCIs have explanatory power over the capital market segments. Based on the observation of turning points showcased by the chart analysis, varying time-series of the BCIs were identified to exhibit leading, lagging and coinciding properties with the stock, bond, commodity and exchange rate market. Accordingly, these indicators provided causal signals of the various capital markets with cyclical attributes of pro-cyclicality and counter-cyclicality with the capital markets. Nevertheless, a small sample of BCIs were acyclical to the market segments. Findings of concordance between identified leading series of each capital market were at least reiterated by the analysed short and long-run cointegration analysis based on the ARDL model. The study conclusively established that South Africa’s official subcomponents of the composite BCIs are not only valuable resource indicators on a macroeconomic context, they are also key signals for the interpretation of financial market or capital market analysis. These indicators can thus be useful in formulating macroprudential or monetary policy for maintaining financial market stability and are not limited to mere macroeconomic policy. The combined use of both financial and real economic time-series for financial market analysis can amplify the understanding of turning points of the stock, bond, commodity and exchange rate. Likewise, component series of the composite BCIs can also be used by investors in gauging the market sentiments for sound and value judgement to increase profitability. Thus, business cycle aggregates cannot only serve as a reflection of the real economy, but also, as a metric and gauge for financial sector dynamics and attitudes. Doctoral

PhD (Economics), North-West University, Vanderbijlpark Campus Fiscal policy and monetary policy are important macroeconomic tools used to achieve macroeconomic objectives. The dominant objective of fiscal policy is to increase the aggregate output of the economy while the overriding objective of monetary policy is to regulate and control the interest and inflation rates. Conventionally, both fiscal and monetary policies were under the control of the national governments. Consequently, traditional economic analyses were made with respect to both policies to attain the optimum policy mix of the two in order to achieve the broad macroeconomic goals. But more recently, as a result of the transfer of monetary policy control and monetary policy formulation to central banks, there has been a significant and notable structural change in the way in which fiscal and monetary policies interact. There has been a dilemma as regard whether these two policies are complementary, or are substitutes to each other for achieving macroeconomic goals. The issue of fiscal and monetary policies interaction and the idea of complementarity or substitutability for each other comes up only when both fiscal and monetary policies authorities are independent of each other. But when the goals of either of the authority, mostly monetary policy authority, is made subservient to the fiscal authority simply because national government controls the fiscal authority, then fiscal authority solely dominates the policy making and as a result hinder the monetary policy objective. This study revisits the discussion on fiscal and monetary policies interaction by econometrically analyzing the interdependence between fiscal and monetary policies interactions in Nigeria and South Africa. Consequently, the study aimed at estimating the degree of fiscal and monetary policies interdependence in Nigeria and South Africa; analyse the trend of inflation with respect to the degree of fiscal and monetary policies interdependence; and evaluate the dynamic responses between fiscal and monetary policies variables. In order to achieve the objectives of the study, the study employed a quantitative research methodology. Time series data on nominal consumption expenditure, money supply, government debt, inflation rate, interest rate, tax revenue, output level, and government spending for the period 1981-2016 were adopted for the analysis and simulation was also done within the DSGE modelling. The data were sourced from the World Bank Development indicator (WDI), a publication of World Bank. The study made use of dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) proposed by Stocks and Watson to estimate the degree of fiscal and monetary policies interdependence in Nigeria and South Africa while a trend analysis was carried out to examine the trend of inflation with respect to the degree of fiscal and monetary policies interdependence. Dynamic Stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) and Bayesian vector autoregressive model (BVA) were used to evaluate the dynamic responses between fiscal and monetary policies variables. The result of the first model used to estimate the degree of fiscal and monetary policies interdependence showed that the degree of fiscal and monetary interdependence in Nigeria is 0.84 while it is found to be 0.67 in the South African economy. This empirical finding suggests that the degree of fiscal and monetary policies interdependence in both Nigeria and South Africa is greater than 0.5 and closer to 1. This implies that in coordination of fiscal and monetary policies interactions in both economies, central bank is more active and first mover. Put differently, because the degree of fiscal and monetary policies interdependence is greater than 0.5 in both countries, the apex bank enjoys a high degree of autonomy in coordination of fiscal and monetary policies. The implication is that about 84% and 67% of government debt are backed up by fiscal authority in Nigeria and South Africa respectively while remaining percentage is accommodated by monetary authority, and that monetary authorities in both countries fixed their policies ahead and enforce discipline on fiscal authorities. Hence, both economies could be said to be under a low fiscal dominance hypothesis. This is because the zero or low fiscal dominance requires that the degree of fiscal and monetary policies interaction be greater than zero and closed to one as found under the present study. Also the results of the trend analysis showed that the inflation rate has been consistently higher in the Nigerian economy than in the South African economy, while average annual inflation rate under the study period in Nigeria was 19.6% and 9.1% in South Africa. The empirical findings suggest that though Nigeria has a higher degree of fiscal and monetary policies interdependence than the South African economy, average inflation rate in Nigeria is higher than in South Africa. This result does not find evidence of low inflation being associated with higher degree of fiscal and monetary policies interdependence. Findings from the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) and Bayesian vector autoregressive model (BVA) reveal that fiscal and monetary policy interacts with each other in both the Nigerian and South African economy. Inflation responds to fiscal policy shocks in the form of government spending, revenue and borrowing shocks. Monetary authority’s decisions also affect fiscal policy variables. However, monetary and fiscal policies interactions are largely stronger in South Africa than Nigeria. The empirical results show that the dominant sources of variation in output level in Nigeria are shocks to government debt while shocks to tax, interest rate and government spending are found to be dominant sources of variation in output level in South Africa. Also, output level, government debt and interest rate are important sources of variation in government spending in Nigeria while they are found to be output level, tax revenue and interest rate shocks in South Africa. Government debt and inflation shocks are significant and dominant of sources variation in interest rate in Nigeria while all the variables seemed to be significant sources of variation in South Africa. Tax revenue, government debt and government spending shocks are significant sources of variation in inflation in South Africa, while all the variables are found to be a significant sources of variation in inflation in Nigeria. The study concludes based on the empirical findings, that monetary policy authorities in Nigeria and South Africa should strive more to maintain the current level of their autonomy given their higher degree of fiscal and monetary policies interdependence. Current level of autonomy can be maintained by ensuring that the fiscal authority plans its inter-temporal budget constraints such that current level of government outstanding debt and its interest would always be offset by future primary surpluses rather than seigniorage. The productive base of Nigeria needs to be awakened as is almost moribound in terms of perfomance. This can be done through elimination of various structural rigidities in Nigerian economy, provision of adequate and modern infrastructure such as good roads, power suppy which aid productive activities, discouraging importation of already inflated products into the country and tax concessions to producers of essential commodities. Meanwhile, though the average level of inflation in South Africa is lower than that of Nigeria, South African inflation rate can still be brought lower given the degree of fiscal and monetary policies interdependence by also further strengthening the productive base of the economy. Doctoral

MCom (Economics), North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2019 The aim of this study was to investigate the determinants of tourism destination competitiveness in order to develop an index that could empirically measure tourism competitiveness in a region where the tourism sector has many resources that could contribute to the economic and social welfare of South Africa. This country experiences exceptionally high unemployment rates and its key sectors (manufacturing and mining) are underperforming, causing a poorly performing economy. Since competitiveness is essential to fuel economic growth and economic development to ensure the success of a region, South Africa should identify a viable sector in which investment could encourage competitiveness and in turn, economic prosperity. The tourism sector is known for its easy market entry, various and multiple employment opportunities and export contribution, and furthermore, because South Africa is characterised as a country with diverse cultures, beautiful scenery and abundant fauna and flora, the correct management and branding could attract tourism arrivals. While the importance of tourism destination competitiveness and national tourism competitiveness have been investigated through various studies, most of these have focussed on factors influencing the tourism destination competitiveness of a nation. This study therefore set out to fill a gap in the body of knowledge by focussing on the said determinants of tourism destination competitiveness to develop a method of empirically measuring the competitiveness of a region. To achieve these, it focussed on a Regional Tourism Destination Competitiveness Index which was formulated as an empirical measure of tourism competitiveness for which determinants were identified and selected through a literature review of theories and models relating to the competitiveness of tourism destinations. Subsequently, a Regional Tourism Destination Competitiveness questionnaire was formulated and given to selected respondents with knowledge of tourism and development research and who are active in the tourism sector. In addition, a statistical time–series analysis was conducted by use of Panel Pooled Mean Group–Autoregressive Distributes Lag models. The models analysed the relationship between tourism and economic variables (Model 1) and tourism and social variables (Model 2) for all nine provinces of South Africa from 2001 to 2017. This method investigated the correlation and long– and short–run relation between these variables. Firstly, the results indicated that the most crucial determinants required for achieving tourism destination competitiveness are: natural environmental resources, safety and security, transportation facilities, accommodation facilities as well as food and drink. Those with the least significant impact on tourism destination competitiveness are: private–public partnerships, education facilities, labour force and health facilities. Secondly, results from the econometric analysis revealed that a long–run relationship exists between tourism and the economic variables: Ltrade_gdp, Lgdp, Lunemp, Leap and Linc and between tourism and social variables: Lhdi, Lcrim, Linfra, Lgini, Lpov and Lpop. In the short–run, it was found that a relationship exists between tourism and economic variables as well as tourism and social variables. It is recommended that collaboration between the private and public sector should increase in their participation in the activities of the tourism industry as well as tourism research. Creating a positive tourism destination brand and, relaxing tourism regulation will encourage tourist arrivals. Future research could investigate the perceptions of the three types of participants in tourism namely, tourist, businesses and government on the importance and level of success of specific determinants. Masters

MCom (Economics), North-West University, Vanderbijlpark Campus, 2019 In the ever-changing global market environment, it is crucial for national governments to establish an enabling social economic atmosphere for the upliftment of individuals’ quality of life and well-being. International institutions state that social security has become one of the most important forms of assistance provided by a national government, which is now seen as an overall human right. Economic theory expresses a viewpoint of justice and a theoretical agenda for instituting radical organisations designed to maintain social justice and individual independence. Factors constituting the social security system include the number of social security recipients, the amount spent on social security, the economic environment, the level of human development, the amount of individuals without a job, the amount of individuals within a household, distribution of income and the number of individuals in income poverty. Empirical declarations have presented mixed findings on the subject matter and thus no single empirical consensus has been presented. Meanwhile, international institutions combined with the economic theory argue that potential effects of the aforementioned social factors on an economy’s social security patterns vary according to the orientation of the economy’s condition of need. This study examined the South African social security system, stated in the Republic of South Africa Constitution, Section 27 (1c) as, “every individual has the right to have access to social security, including if they are unable to support themselves and their households, proper social assistance” and requires legislative measures which should be employed by the national government to create awareness of this right in order to alleviate poverty and income inequality as well as to uplift individuals standard of living, included in Section 27 (2). In order to investigate the aforementioned Constitutional statements, the study employed both a descriptive and an econometric analysis on the South African social security system. Throughout the descriptive section, trends and graphs are used to analyse the different social security systems found across the globe and it culminates with an in-depth analysis of the different social security assistance types in South Africa. The econometric analysis ascertains the long-run and short-run relationship between three econometric models, namely the number of individuals in poverty, income inequality (as measured by the GINI coefficient) and human development (as measured by the Human Development Index (HDI)), with the number of social security recipients, the amount spent on social security, the number of individuals without a job, economic activity and the number of individuals within a household from 1996 to 2017. The study also establishes a causal direction between the aforementioned factors. The models employed under the econometric section include the correlation matrix, ARDL bounds test to co-integration and the Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test. The study made use of a quantitative research methodology and includes time series macro-economic variables from 1996 to 2017. The correlation matrix found that the correlation between poverty and the aforementioned independent variables, indicates that two (social security recipients and the number of individuals within a household) out of the five variables have a positive relationship with the alleviation of poverty; however, these positive relationships are not significant at any significance level. Three (amount spent on social security, economic activity, number of individuals without a job) out of the five variables have a negative relationship with poverty and only social security expenditure and economic activity has a significant impact on poverty at 1 percent significance level. On the other hand, the correlation matrix for human development found that four (number of social security recipients, amount spent on social security, economic activity, unemployment) out of the five independent variables have a positive relationship with HDI and these positive relationships are all statistically significant at 1 and 5 percent significance level, except for the number of social security recipients (not significant) and one (number of individuals within a household) of the five independent variables having a negative relationship with the improvement of HDI and is statistically significant at the 1 percent significance level. The correlation matrix for income inequality found that two (number of social security recipients and the number of individuals within a household) of the five sectors under the study have a positive relationship with income inequality. However, these positive relationships are only statistically significant for the number of social security recipients and three (amount spend on social security, the number of individuals without a job and economic activity) of the five variables have a negative relationship with income inequality where only the number of individuals without a job is not statistically significant. The long-run relationships were insignificant between the number of individuals in poverty, income inequality (GINI) and human development (HDI) with the number of individuals receiving social security benefits, total amount spent on social security, number of individuals within a household, number of individuals without a job and economic activity. The short-run Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality found a unidirectional causal relationship between human development and the number of individuals without a job. This means that human development Granger causes unemployment but not the other way around. There is also a causal relationship between HDI and all the independent variables combined, at 5 percent significance level. A unidirectional causality exists between the number of social security recipients and the number of individuals in poverty. This means that the total number of social grant recipients Granger causes poverty but not the other way around. There is also a causal relationship between the number of social security recipients and all the independent variables combined, at 5 percent significance level. A unidirectional causal relationship exists between the number of individuals in poverty and the number of individuals without a job. This means that poverty Granger causes unemployment but not the other way around. Furthermore, there is a causal relationship between the number of individuals in poverty and all the independent variables combined, at 1 percent significance level. A unidirectional causal relationship exists between the income inequality and the human development. This means that income inequality Granger causes HDI but not the other way around. Furthermore, there is evidence of a unidirectional relationship between income inequality and economic activity, indicating income inequality Granger causes GDP but not the other way around. Lastly, there is evidence of a unidirectional relationship between income inequality and the number of individuals within a household, indicating income inequality Granger causes household size but not the other way around. There is also a causal relationship between income inequality and all the independent variables combined, at 1 percent significance level. No causal relationship exists between the number of individuals within a household and all the independent variables combined. Whereas, there is evidence of a causal relationship between the amount spent on social security systems and all the independent variables combined, at 5 percent significance level. There is also evidence that a causal relationship exists between economic activity and all the independent variables combined, at 1 percent significance level, however, not individually. A unidirectional causality exists between the number individuals without a job and the amount spent on social security. This means that unemployment Granger causes social security expenditure but not the other way around. There is also a causal relationship between the number of individuals without a job and all the independent variables combined, at 1 percent significance level. Masters

PhD (Economics), North-West University, Vanderbijlpark Campus, 2019 Maintaining a growing and sustainable level of employment within the unstable global market is crucial for establishing an enabling economic and social atmosphere for economic growth, development and social wellbeing. Different economic theories indicate that investment spending, labour productivity and real wage are some of vital indicators or determinants of employment levels. Nonetheless, the effect of these factors on employment patterns in a fast fluctuating and significantly unified global market economy remains a subject of discussion. Additionally, since employment and unemployment are depicted based on different factors, it is difficult to establish a common definition that includes various factors in distinct periods. Consequently, a number of theories suggest various solutions to create new jobs and reduce the unemployment rate. Manifold empirical studies have shown a mixture of findings on the relationship between employment, labour productivity, and investment spending and real wage. Consequently, no single, unique or mutual empirical consensus has ever been presented. Additionally, various economic theories argue that potential effects of labour productivity, investment spending and real wage either in primary, secondary or tertiary sectors on country’s employment patterns differ according to job orientation within distinct economic sectors. In consideration to the abovementioned facts, this study was conducted with the main objective of investigating the interaction between investment spending, labour productivity, real wage and sectoral employment. The study considered the role of each category of economic sector (primary, secondary and tertiary) towards employment fluctuations. It was, therefore, ascertained that the long-run and short-run relationship exist between the mentioned economic variables from 1995 and 2017. Similarly, the study established the causal relationship and the direction of causality between investment spending, labour productivity, real wage and sectoral employment. Furthermore, the effect and causality between sectoral employments was analysed and the study depicted how changes in one sector’s employment affects other sectors’ employment. The study employed several statistical and econometric approaches and models, which included the descriptive analysis, the standard ARDL, the nonlinear ARDL, bound test for co-integration, the Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test and the dynamic multipliers analysis. These statistical and econometric approaches were applied on a set of macroeconomic time series namely investment spending, labour productivity, real wage and sectoral employment (employment in construction, financial, manufacturing, mining, trade and transport) for the period stretching from 1995 to 2017. The empirical results revealed that both standard ARDL and NARDL reached the same core conclusion suggesting the existence of a long-run relationship between sectoral employment, investment spending, labour productivity and real wage. However, despite this general conclusion, the NARDL failed to determine positive and negative impacts from one variable to the other. It was found that growth within investment spending leads to job creation in most of the analysed sectors. In line with the growth theory, the results also revealed that an increase in real wage negatively influences job growth in most of the analysed sectors with the exception of the mining sector. Labour productivity does not influence sectoral employment and ineffectiveness of labour productivity towards employment growth can be a result of other factors, not investigated by the current study, such as advanced technology. Comparing the effect of changes in one sector’s employment towards other sectors’ job creation, employment in construction sector was found more influential. Jobs created in this sector have a positive spill-overs in other four sectors’ employment namely; finance, manufacturing, mining and trade sectors. The trade sector seconded the construction sector in affecting job creation across the South African major economic sectors. Positive changes in trade sector employment leads to job growth in construction, finance and mining. Although the finance sector was found to be positively influenced by wages, investment and productivity, its job growth has a positive effect only on trade and transport sectors; with negative effects towards employment growth in construction, manufacturing and mining sector. Analysing how sectoral employment affect investment spending, labour productivity and real wage, the study findings indicate that changes of employment in manufacturing, mining and trade sectors cause changes in investment spending. Employment level in finance and mining sectors are the short-term predictors of labour productivity, while real wage, in the short-run, can be predicted using only employment in mining sector. Considering the interplay between labour productivity, investment spending and real wage, it was found that real wage possesses a long-run effect on investment spending and labour productivity. Finally, the study highlighted the significance of investment growth towards job creation in the South African economy. Additionally, without ignoring other economic sectors, financial and construction sectors require more support to boost employment in other sectors. The findings from this study can assist policymakers and economic authorities in developing strategies that are able to increase employment in South Africa and hence, reduce the consequences of unemployment on the South African economy and welfare. Doctoral

MCom (Economics), North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2019 Emerging market economies, such as South Africa, frequently struggle to maintain a stable and economically viable inflation rate due to economic factors of a cost-push and structural nature. These factors not only influence inflation within the economy, but also the efficacy of monetary policy in its pursuit of its many goals. The South African economy has thus long been a victim of volatile inflation, low growth and low employment creation, which are all matters that form part of the mandate of monetary policy. This could be because of the indirect measures that have been used by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to control both money supply as well as inflation in the economy have become increasingly inefficient over time. Therefore, the primary objective of the study was to analyse the efficiency of monetary policy in South Africa, in terms of reaching its goals as set out by the mandate of the SARB regarding inflation, employment and economic growth and in having done so, investigating the existence of cost-push and structural inflationary factors within the South African economy. This study examined the effects of official interest rate, broad money supply, the exchange rate, government debt and government revenue on CPI inflation, as well as on the efficiency of monetary policy in reaching its objectives. It thus determines the long- and short-run relationships between the aforementioned variables from 2001 to 2017. The study further establishes the causal direction between the variables under study. Therefore, the study employed various econometric models inclusive of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the standard ARDL bounds test to cointegration, the Error Correction Model and Toda-Yamamoto granger noncausality test. Furthermore, the study made use of a quantitative research design and included time series, macro-economic variables such as gross domestic product, employment, the repo rate, broad money supply, the nominal effective exchange rate, government debt, government revenue and consumer price inflation, quarterly from 2001 to 2017. These variables were used in two separate econometric models, one of which had consumer price inflation as its dependent variable, with all other variables as independent. The other combined gross domestic product, employment, consumer price inflation to create the Monetary Policy Success Index or MPSI. By employing the unit root and stationarity tests, the study found that all the variables under study comprised of variables that are stationary at either I(0) or I(1), with none of the variables stationary at I(2). This allowed the ARDL model to be used, which produced results that indicated that the South African economy is consistent with cost-push and structural inflation, which leads to inefficiency in the achievement of the objectives of monetary policy as it takes roughly 5.34 quarters for changes in monetary policy to affect the economy. Both long- and short-run relationships exist between independent and dependent variables. The study further performed the Toda-Yamamoto Granger non-causality test and found that variables such as government revenue and government debt have a short-run impact on consumer price inflation, supporting the existence of structural and cost-push inflation in the South African economy. Equally as important, the results of the residual and stability diagnostic tests, which were performed on both models of the study proved that the study models are normally distributed, none are serially correlated nor heteroscedastic and are both stable. This, in turn, ensured that the results of the study are not inaccurate or misleading. Masters

MCom (Economics), North-West University, Vanderbijlpark Campus Since gaining political liberation, the South African government has developed growth-focused policies, with the aim of reducing income inequality and poverty alleviation. However, given all that has been achieved, South Africa still remains one of the highest in the world in terms of income inequality. The Inequality is demonstrated through a two-tiered educational failing system; lack of access to natural resources; a dual health system; and other socio-economic dimensions. This increasing income inequality is an issue of concern to social scientists and policy makers. The purpose of this study is to analyse the relationship between income inequality, economic growth and poverty in South Africa, which also serves as the primary objective of the study. Focusing on what has been achieved but identifying the gaps that remain, causality, as well as the short and long-run relationship between the aforementioned variables. In addition, policy options, consequences and recommendations are suggested. This study employed quantitative research to analyse the relations between the variables. Making use of secondary data from IHS Global insight 2018 database for the years ranging from 1997 to 2017. Data included economic growth (GDP), income inequality (GINIco), poverty (PVT) and the human development index (HDI) as a control variable. The statistical tests and econometric models used to analyse the data included trend analysis, descriptive statistics, a correlation (multicollinearity) test first and second generation unit root tests. The panel mean group (MG) model, based on the panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, was employed to test the cointegration among variables, and the error correction model (ECM) was used to determine the adjustment of the system to the equilibrium. Due to the presence of cross-sectional dependency, the common corrected effects model (CCEMG) was employed as an advanced technique of the MG estimator. The findings of the study revealed that in the long-run, GDP growth and poverty have a negative relationship whilst income inequality and economic growth have a positive relationship. Furthermore, the human development index has a positive relationship with income inequality and a negative relationship with poverty in the long-run. These results are an indication that since income inequality has a positive effect on growth, by implementing inequality- focused strategies/policies, in the long-run there will be economic growth which in turn impacts poverty alleviation. Literature has indicated that actions on reducing income inequality can be highly complementary to poverty reduction thus improving the standard of living of South Africans. Masters

MCom (Economics), North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2018 The manufacturing sector plays an integral part in driving industrialisation of a country and inducing economic progression by precipitating structural change, technological innovation, sustainable GDP growth and productive employment. The reason for that rests in the features of the manufacturing sector (e.g. high magnitude of capital; (2) technology, increasing returns as well as the multiplier effects; (3) employment potential; and (4) forward and backward linkages) that collectively corroborate the sector necessary for economic progression. As such, the manufacturing sector impels economic growth and employment in various countries. In South Africa, a resilient manufacturing base is established and, over the years, the country has managed to induce substantial competence in the automotive, metal, chemical, food and beverages, and clothing sectors of manufacturing. However, production in the South African manufacturing sector and its sub-sectors has been experiencing a downswing over the last two decades and this is due to impediments or challenges to effective manufacturing production arising from both the domestic and global constraints. This involves the inadequate electricity supply, high administrative costs, skills inadequacies, antiquated technologies, effects of the 2008/09 global financial crisis and global competition. As a result of the aforementioned constraints, production in the South African manufacturing sector has been lacklustre, despite the efforts undertaken to induce effective South African manufacturing production. The Economic Development Department of South Africa have annunciated that the manufacturing sector has long been a vehicle for economic growth and is one of the labour-absorbing economic sectors in South Africa. Thus, suggesting that the modern-day poor performance of the South African manufacturing sector has mirrored the country’s sluggish GDP growth rates and high unemployment levels. This imposes negative implications to the South African economy. In view of the above discussion, the primary objective of the study is to appraise the existing South African manufacturing base and analyse the impact of production in the manufacturing sector and its predominant sub-sectors on GDP and employment in South Africa. Considering this, the empirical objectives of the study were: (1) to establish the effect of production in the manufacturing sector and its predominant sub-sectors on the South African economy; (2) to analyse the relationship between GDP, employment, production in the manufacturing sector and its predominant sub-sectors in South Africa; and (3) to formulate policy recommendations for improved sectoral development regarding manufacturing production and job creation. In achieving these empirical objectives, secondary data were derived from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). The secondary data used covered a period 1998 Q1 to 2017 Q1 (i.e. 77 quarterly observations) and the choice of using data that covers the aforementioned period was motivated by the availability of data. As such, to analyse the data, an econometric models used included the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and error correction model (ECM). The results of the study indicated that production in the manufacturing sector and its predominant sub-sectors under study has a long-run impact on GDP and employment in the South African economy. However, production in the total manufacturing sector and four (automotive, chemical, food and beverage and metal) of the five predominant sectors of manufacturing under study increases South Africa’s GDP in the long run. In other words, production in the clothing sector decreases South Africa’s GDP in the long run. At the same time, production in the total manufacturing sector and four (i.e. automotive, food and beverage, clothing and metal) of the five predominant sectors of manufacturing under study has a positive long-run impact on employment in the South African economy. That is to say, production in the chemical sector of manufacturing decreases employment in the long run. In the short run, production in the manufacturing sector increases both GDP and employment, however, only production in the automotive and metal sectors of manufacturing increase GDP in the short run. While production in the metal and food and beverages sectors of manufacturing increases employment in the short run. Therefore, based on the discussed empirical findings, the study provides recommendations for improved sectoral development regarding manufacturing production and job creation. The study also concludes that the South African government should spend its limited fiscal resources to support and boost overall effective manufacturing production, as this can induce both GDP growth and employment in the short- and long run North-West University (South Africa). Vaal Triangle Campus. Faculty of Economic Sciences and Information Technology Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA) Masters

MCom (Economics) at the Vaal TriangleCampus of theNorth-West University, 2016 Local Economic Development (LED) is a concept that is synonymous with the improvement of living standards for people in local communities. The development of a local region is mostly influenced by the way in which the government develops policy, which creates an enabling environment for both businesses and individuals. Organisations, local government, and the people of the community are the three major pillars that form part of the “LED triangle”. These parties are identified as the stakeholders working together in order to improve the coordination of future projects. An enabling environment, alternatively, focuses on the role of government in improving the delivery of services to local communities. The 12 factors aspects discussed in terms of this topic comprise the formation of partnerships, leadership, safety and security, agricultural improvement, human resource development, poverty alleviation, economic development, environmental and spatial plans, policies and structures, entrepreneurship development, infrastructure plans, as well as the improvement of transportation. The aim of the National Development Plan (NDP) is to ensure that poverty and inequality will be reduced, and that employment will increase by at least 11 million by the year 2030. South Africa is currently facing numerous economic, social and political problems and obstacles. Various protests across the country have left citizens feeling distressed by the lack of service delivery from local government. Development is one aspect that South Africa needs to maintain economic, social and political stability. Local Economic Development (LED) and an enabling environment are two very important tools that should be used to determine the level of economic development within a specific geographical area. A quantitative research design was used in this study by means of the survey method in a cross sectional approach. The respondents included 50 business owners in the Midvaal, 50 respondents in the Lesedi, and 100 business owners in the Emfuleni areas. This was as a result of the non-probability sampling method that was used. The data in this study were analysed using SPSS version 22 (Statistical Package for Social Sciences). The questionnaire distributed to the business owners included four aspects: demographic information, public service perceptions, municipal practices, as well the factors contributing to the creation of an enabling environment, which was rated on a five-point likert scale. Economic development and the improvement in the development of the standards of living will always have a positive influence on the enabling environment. From the empirical results obtained in the survey results it was found that the municipality with the best performances in service delivery as well as the highest number of factors contributing to the creation of an enabling environment will have a significant impact on the overall standards of living and development of the community. The statistics revealed that the Midvaal Local Municipality have the highest level of development in terms of standards of living and income inequalities, as such, the overall delivery of services and the enabling environment factors are significantly better than those of the Lesedi and Emfuleni Local Municipalities. The study concluded that if an enabling environment is created and provided it will have a significant impact on the overall economic development initiatives such as job creation initiatives and the alleviation of poverty. This study revealed the empirical findings of the study both in terms of primary and secondary data. Masters