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We introduce NEOviz, an interactive visualization system designed to assist planetary defense experts in the visual analysis of the movements of near-Earth objects in the Solar System that might prove hazardous to Earth. Asteroids are often discovered using optical telescopes and their trajectories are calculated from images, resulting in an inherent asymmetric uncertainty in their position and velocity. Consequently, we typically cannot determine the exact trajectory of an asteroid, and an ensemble of trajectories must be generated to estimate an asteroid's movement over time. When propagating these ensembles over decades, it is challenging to visualize the varying paths and determine their potential impact on Earth, which could cause catastrophic damage. NEOviz equips experts with the necessary tools to effectively analyze the existing catalog of asteroid observations. In particular, we present a novel approach for visualizing the 3D uncertainty region through which an asteroid travels, while providing accurate spatial context in relation to system-critical infrastructure such as Earth, the Moon, and artificial satellites. Furthermore, we use NEOviz to visualize the divergence of asteroid trajectories, capturing high-variance events in an asteroid's orbital properties. For potential impactors, we combine the 3D visualization with an uncertainty-aware impact map to illustrate the potential risks to human populations. NEOviz was developed with continuous input from members of the planetary defense community through a participatory design process. It is exemplified in three real-world use cases and evaluated via expert feedback interviews.

We simulate and analyse the contribution of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) to the rate of discovery of Near Earth Object (NEO) candidates, their submission rates to the NEO Confirmation page (NEOCP), and the resulting demands on the worldwide NEO follow-up observation system. We find that, when using current NEOCP listing criteria, Rubin will typically contribute ~129 new objects to the NEOCP each night in the first year, an increase of ~8x relative to present day. Only 8.3% of the objects listed for follow-up will be NEOs, with the primary contaminant being a background of yet undiscovered, faint, main belt asteroids (MBAs). We consider follow-up prioritisation strategies to lessen the impact on the NEO follow-up system. We develop an algorithm that predicts (with 68% accuracy) whether Rubin itself will self recover any given tracklet; external follow-up of such candidates can be de-prioritised. With this algorithm enabled, the follow-up list would be reduced to 64 NEO candidates per night (with ~8.4% purity). We propose additional criteria based on trailing, apparent magnitude, and ecliptic latitude to further prioritise follow-up. We hope observation planners and brokers will adopt some of these open-source algorithms, enabling the follow-up community to effectively keep up with the NEOCP in the early years of LSST., Comment: 16 pages, 14 figures. In review in AJ, comments welcome!

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) dataset will dramatically alter our understanding of the Universe, from the origins of the Solar System to the nature of dark matter and dark energy. Much of this research will depend on the existence of robust, tested, and scalable algorithms, software, and services. Identifying and developing such tools ahead of time has the potential to significantly accelerate the delivery of early science from LSST. Developing these collaboratively, and making them broadly available, can enable more inclusive and equitable collaboration on LSST science. To facilitate such opportunities, a community workshop entitled "From Data to Software to Science with the Rubin Observatory LSST" was organized by the LSST Interdisciplinary Network for Collaboration and Computing (LINCC) and partners, and held at the Flatiron Institute in New York, March 28-30th 2022. The workshop included over 50 in-person attendees invited from over 300 applications. It identified seven key software areas of need: (i) scalable cross-matching and distributed joining of catalogs, (ii) robust photometric redshift determination, (iii) software for determination of selection functions, (iv) frameworks for scalable time-series analyses, (v) services for image access and reprocessing at scale, (vi) object image access (cutouts) and analysis at scale, and (vii) scalable job execution systems. This white paper summarizes the discussions of this workshop. It considers the motivating science use cases, identified cross-cutting algorithms, software, and services, their high-level technical specifications, and the principles of inclusive collaborations needed to develop them. We provide it as a useful roadmap of needs, as well as to spur action and collaboration between groups and individuals looking to develop reusable software for early LSST science., Comment: White paper from "From Data to Software to Science with the Rubin Observatory LSST" workshop

We present a tool for the comparison and validation of the integration packages suitable for Solar System dynamics. iCompare, written in Python, compares the ephemeris prediction accuracy of a suite of commonly-used integration packages (JPL/HORIZONS, OpenOrb, OrbFit at present). It integrates a set of test particles with orbits picked to explore both usual and unusual regions in Solar System phase space and compares the computed to reference ephemerides. The results are visualized in an intuitive dashboard. This allows for the assessment of integrator suitability as a function of population, as well as monitoring their performance from version to version (a capability needed for the Rubin Observatory's software pipeline construction efforts). We provide the code on GitHub with a readily runnable version in Binder (https://github.com/dirac-institute/iCompare)., Comment: 3 pages, 1 figure, accepted to RNAAS

Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) provide a window into the history of the Solar System, but they can be challenging to observe due to their distance from the Sun and relatively low brightness. Here we report the detection of 75 moving objects that we could not link to any other known objects, the faintest of which has a VR magnitude of $25.02 \pm 0.93$ using the KBMOD platform. We recover an additional 24 sources with previously-known orbits. We place constraints on the barycentric distance, inclination, and longitude of ascending node of these objects. The unidentified objects have a median barycentric distance of 41.28 au, placing them in the outer Solar System. The observed inclination and magnitude distribution of all detected objects is consistent with previously published KBO distributions. We describe extensions to KBMOD, including a robust percentile-based lightcurve filter, an in-line graphics processing unit (GPU) filter, new coadded stamp generation, and a convolutional neural network (CNN) stamp filter, which allow KBMOD to take advantage of difference images. These enchancements mark a significant improvement in the readiness of KBMOD for deployment on future big data surveys such as LSST., Comment: Accepted: Astronomical Journal

We present "Tracklet-less Heliocentric Orbit Recovery" (THOR), an algorithm for linking of observations of Solar System objects across multiple epochs that does not require intra-night tracklets or a predefined cadence of observations within a search window. By sparsely covering regions of interest in the phase space with "test orbits", transforming nearby observations over a few nights into the co-rotating frame of the test orbit at each epoch, and then performing a generalized Hough transform on the transformed detections followed by orbit determination (OD) filtering, candidate clusters of observations belonging to the same objects can be recovered at moderate computational cost and little to no constraints on cadence. We validate the effectiveness of this approach by running on simulations as well as on real data from the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF). Applied to a short, 2-week, slice of ZTF observations, we demonstrate THOR can recover 97.4% of all previously known and discoverable objects in the targeted ($a > 1.7$ au) population with 5 or more observations and with purity between 97.7% and 100%. This includes 10 likely new discoveries, and a recovery of an $e \sim 1$ comet C/2018 U1 (the comet would have been a ZTF discovery had THOR been running in 2018 when the data were taken). The THOR package and demo Jupyter notebooks are open source and available at https://github.com/moeyensj/thor., Comment: 22 pages, 11 figures

Here we revisit an initial orbit determination method introduced by O. F. Mossotti employing four geocentric sky-plane observations and a linear equation to compute the angular momentum of the observed body. We then extend the method to topocentric observations, yielding a quadratic equation for the angular momentum. The performance of the two versions are compared through numerical tests with synthetic asteroid data using different time intervals between consecutive observations and different astrometric errors. We also show a comparison test with Gauss's method using simulated observations with the expected cadence of the VRO-LSST telescope., Comment: 22 pages, 9 figures

We outline the challenges faced by the planetary science community in the era of next-generation large-scale astronomical surveys, and highlight needs that must be addressed in order for the community to maximize the quality and quantity of scientific output from archival, existing, and future surveys, while satisfying NASA's and NSF's goals., Comment: 7 pages, 1 figure, submitted to the Planetary Science and Astrobiology Decadal Survey 2023-2032 call for white papers

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) is expected to increase known small solar system object populations by an order of magnitude or more over the next decade, enabling a broad array of transformative solar system science investigations to be performed. In this white paper, we discuss software tools and infrastructure that we anticipate will be needed to conduct these investigations and outline possible approaches for implementing them. Feedback from the community or contributions to future updates of this work are welcome. Our aim is for this white paper to encourage further consideration of the software development needs of the LSST solar system science community, and also to be a call to action for working to meet those needs in advance of the expected start of the survey in late 2022., Comment: 82 pages

We publicly release ATM, a Python package designed to model asteroid flux measurements to estimate an asteroid's size, surface temperature distribution, and emissivity. The full multi-dimensional posterior pdf is found using Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Data files with $\sim$ 2.5 million WISE flux measurements for $\sim$ 150,000 asteroids and additional MPC data are also included with the package, as well as Python Jupyter Notebooks with examples of analysis. The entirety of the analysis presented here, including all the figures, tables, and catalogs, can be easily reproduced with these publicly released Notebooks. We show that ATM can match the best-fit size estimates for well-observed asteroids published in 2016 by the NEOWISE team (Mainzer et al. 2016) with a sub-percent bias and a scatter of only 6%. We estimate that the accuracy of WISE-based asteroid size estimates is approximately in the range of 15-20% for most objects. We also study optical data collected by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and show that correlations of optical colors and WISE-based best-fit model parameters indicate robustness of the latter. Our analysis also gives support to the claim by Harris & Drube (2014) that candidate metallic asteroids can be selected using the best-fit temperature parameter and infrared albedo. We investigate a correlation between SDSS colors and optical albedo derived using WISE-based size estimates and show that this correlation can be used to estimate asteroid sizes with optical data alone, with a precision of about 21% relative to WISE-based size estimates. After accounting for systematic errors, the difference in accuracy between infrared and optical color-based size estimates becomes less than a factor of two. (abridged), Comment: 33 pages, 17 figures

A foundational goal of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) is to map the Solar System small body populations that provide key windows into understanding of its formation and evolution. This is especially true of the populations of the Outer Solar System -- objects at the orbit of Neptune $r > 30$AU and beyond. In this whitepaper, we propose a minimal change to the LSST cadence that can greatly enhance LSST's ability to discover faint distant Solar System objects across the entire wide-fast-deep (WFD) survey area. Specifically, we propose that the WFD cadence be constrained so as to deliver least one sequence of $\gtrsim 10$ visits per year taken in a $\sim 10$ day period in any combination of $g, r$, and $i$ bands. Combined with advanced shift-and-stack algorithms (Whidden et al. 2019) this modification would enable a nearly complete census of the outer Solar System to $\sim 25.5$ magnitude, yielding $4-8$x more KBO discoveries than with single-epoch baseline, and enabling rapid identification and follow-up of unusual distant Solar System objects in $\gtrsim 5$x greater volume of space. These increases would enhance the science cases discussed in Schwamb et al. (2018) whitepaper, including probing Neptune's past migration history as well as discovering hypothesized planet(s) beyond the orbit of Neptune (or at least placing significant constraints on their existence)., Comment: White Paper submitted in response to the Call for LSST Cadence Optimization White Papers

We introduce a new computational technique for searching for faint moving sources in astronomical images. Starting from a maximum likelihood estimate for the probability of the detection of a source within a series of images, we develop a massively parallel algorithm for searching through candidate asteroid trajectories that utilizes Graphics Processing Units (GPU). This technique can search over 10^10 possible asteroid trajectories in stacks of the order 10-15 4K x 4K images in under a minute using a single consumer grade GPU. We apply this algorithm to data from the 2015 campaign of the High Cadence Transient Survey (HiTS) obtained with the Dark Energy Camera (DECam). We find 39 previously unknown Kuiper Belt Objects in the 150 square degrees of the survey. Comparing these asteroids to an existing model for the inclination distribution of the Kuiper Belt we demonstrate that we recover a KBO population above our detection limit consistent with previous studies. Software used in this analysis is made available as an open source package., Comment: Accepted to AJ

Using the most recent prototypes, design, and as-built system information, we test and quantify the capability of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) to discover Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) and Near-Earth Objects (NEOs). We empirically estimate an expected upper limit to the false detection rate in LSST image differencing, using measurements on DECam data and prototype LSST software and find it to be about $450$~deg$^{-2}$. We show that this rate is already tractable with current prototype of the LSST Moving Object Processing System (MOPS) by processing a 30-day simulation consistent with measured false detection rates. We proceed to evaluate the performance of the LSST baseline survey strategy for PHAs and NEOs using a high-fidelity simulated survey pointing history. We find that LSST alone, using its baseline survey strategy, will detect $66\%$ of the PHA and $61\%$ of the NEO population objects brighter than $H=22$, with the uncertainty in the estimate of $\pm5$ percentage points. By generating and examining variations on the baseline survey strategy, we show it is possible to further improve the discovery yields. In particular, we find that extending the LSST survey by two additional years and doubling the MOPS search window increases the completeness for PHAs to $86\%$ (including those discovered by contemporaneous surveys) without jeopardizing other LSST science goals ($77\%$ for NEOs). This equates to reducing the undiscovered population of PHAs by additional $26\%$ ($15\%$ for NEOs), relative to the baseline survey., Comment: 66 pages, 18 figures, accepted to Icarus

We report on $g$, $r$ and $i$ band observations of the Interstellar Object 'Oumuamua (1I) taken on 2017 October 29 from 04:28 to 08:40 UTC by the Apache Point Observatory (APO) 3.5m telescope's ARCTIC camera. We find that 1I's colors are $g-r=0.41\pm0.24$ and $r-i=0.23\pm0.25$, consistent with the visible spectra of Masiero (2017), Ye et al. (2017) and Fitzsimmons et al. (2017), and most comparable to the population of Solar System C/D asteroids, Trojans, or comets. We find no evidence of any cometary activity at a heliocentric distance of 1.46 au, approximately 1.5 months after 1I's closest approach distance to the Sun. Significant brightness variability was seen in the $r$ observations, with the object becoming notably brighter towards the end of the run. By combining our APO photometric time series data with the Discovery Channel Telescope (DCT) data of Knight et al. (2017), taken 20 h later on 2017 October 30, we construct an almost complete light curve with a most probable lightcurve period of $P \simeq 4~{\rm h}$. Our results imply a double peaked rotation period of 8.1 $\pm$ 0.02 h, with a peak-to-peak amplitude of 1.5 - 2.1 mags. Assuming that 1I's shape can be approximated by an ellipsoid, the amplitude constraint implies that 1I has an axial ratio of 3.5 to 10.3, which is strikingly elongated. Assuming that 1I is rotating above its critical break up limit, our results are compatible with 1I having having modest cohesive strength and may have obtained its elongated shape during a tidal disruption event before being ejected from its home system. Astrometry useful for constraining 1I's orbit was also obtained and published in Weaver et al. (2017)., Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Letters, data are available at: https://github.com/dhuppenkothen/CometPeriodSearch and https://zenodo.org/record/1068392

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) is a large-aperture, wide-field, ground-based survey system that will image the sky in six optical bands from 320 to 1050 nm, uniformly covering approximately $18,000$deg$^2$ of the sky over 800 times. The LSST is currently under construction on Cerro Pach\'on in Chile, and expected to enter operations in 2022. Once operational, the LSST will explore a wide range of astrophysical questions, from discovering "killer" asteroids to examining the nature of Dark Energy. The LSST will generate on average 15 TB of data per night, and will require a comprehensive Data Management system to reduce the raw data to scientifically useful catalogs and images with minimum human intervention. These reductions will result in a real-time alert stream, and eleven data releases over the 10-year duration of LSST operations. To enable this processing, the LSST project is developing a new, general-purpose, high-performance, scalable, well documented, open source data processing software stack for O/IR surveys. Prototypes of this stack are already capable of processing data from existing cameras (e.g., SDSS, DECam, MegaCam), and form the basis of the Hyper-Suprime Cam (HSC) Survey data reduction pipeline., Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures, to appear in the Proceedings of ADASS XXV

(Abridged) We describe here the most ambitious survey currently planned in the optical, the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). A vast array of science will be enabled by a single wide-deep-fast sky survey, and LSST will have unique survey capability in the faint time domain. The LSST design is driven by four main science themes: probing dark energy and dark matter, taking an inventory of the Solar System, exploring the transient optical sky, and mapping the Milky Way. LSST will be a wide-field ground-based system sited at Cerro Pach\'{o}n in northern Chile. The telescope will have an 8.4 m (6.5 m effective) primary mirror, a 9.6 deg$^2$ field of view, and a 3.2 Gigapixel camera. The standard observing sequence will consist of pairs of 15-second exposures in a given field, with two such visits in each pointing in a given night. With these repeats, the LSST system is capable of imaging about 10,000 square degrees of sky in a single filter in three nights. The typical 5$\sigma$ point-source depth in a single visit in $r$ will be $\sim 24.5$ (AB). The project is in the construction phase and will begin regular survey operations by 2022. The survey area will be contained within 30,000 deg$^2$ with $\delta<+34.5^\circ$, and will be imaged multiple times in six bands, $ugrizy$, covering the wavelength range 320--1050 nm. About 90\% of the observing time will be devoted to a deep-wide-fast survey mode which will uniformly observe a 18,000 deg$^2$ region about 800 times (summed over all six bands) during the anticipated 10 years of operations, and yield a coadded map to $r\sim27.5$. The remaining 10\% of the observing time will be allocated to projects such as a Very Deep and Fast time domain survey. The goal is to make LSST data products, including a relational database of about 32 trillion observations of 40 billion objects, available to the public and scientists around the world., Comment: 57 pages, 32 color figures, version with high-resolution figures available from https://www.lsst.org/overview