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Using a dynamic transfer function model-based methodology, this study analyzes the joint influence of legislation changes, enforcement and compliance with driving regulations in terms of road fatalities in Spain during the 2005–2015 time period. Three robust econometric models demonstrate that two of the road safety law reforms recently implemented in Spain, the points-based driver's license and the toughening of the Penal Code, have had positive impacts, albeit with varying durations. Their impacts are also seen to have been reinforced by the application of a range of monitoring instruments to track compliance. The most effective of these include radar speed measuring devices, the mere presence of which has the desired deterrent effect irrespective of the positive proof that they might detect. However, lack of compliance with maximum alcohol limits seems to increase road fatalities, which suggests that a more complex preventive strategy needs to be developed through a combination of programmed actions. Lastly, the irreplaceable deterrence role of traffic police who enforce compliance with driving laws stands out, with the number of officers deployed being decisive.

Successive changes to the legal framework affecting the Spanish Port System have been implemented over the last 25 years, forcing maritime operators to adapt to new rules. Based on a comprehensive literature review of studies addressing Spanish port devolution, our paper provides the most up-to-date evaluation of the impacts of these changes. Apart from the correlation between port activity and the economic cycle, an encouraging finding highlighted here is that legal reforms underpinned by broad political and port community consensus appear to be effective in attracting passenger and container traffic.

Using a robust transfer function model methodology, the present paper seeks to offer empirical evidence regarding the size and type of effects that low-cost carriers (LCCs) have had on traffic for charter carriers (CCs) in the Spanish airport system by geographic market. We show an unmistakable substitution relationship between CCs and LCCs in the latter’s typical niche markets, national and European flights, while there is no reaction from the CCs in the segment of international flights outside the EU. Furthermore, substitution effects are smaller between CCs and LCCs on the domestic level than effects between LCCs and network carriers (NCs) and slightly larger on the European level. Lastly, CC traffic’s different sensitivity to terrorist attacks, day of the week, air accidents and the economic crisis is also evident. CCs should therefore be considered an independent category that warrants individualized analyses.

This paper reviews the way that air, rail, and toll motorways infrastructure have evolved in Spain since the beginning of the century, when all these types of transport have been subjected to a far-reaching economic crisis. Investments made in infrastructure during this time will also be analyzed in relative terms and compared to other countries in the European Union, as will the various policies applied to each of these modes of transport. The methodology applied in this paper is of the bottom-up type, in the sense that a thorough univariate–uniequational analysis is performed before proceeding to more complex, multivariate models. We found that the policy to drop fare prices for the HSR (AVE) has had an almost 14% positive effect on the number of passengers per kilometer for HS and long-distance trains, but it has also had a negative effect of as much as 16.7% on the number of domestic air passengers. The increase in airport taxes has not affected any of the endogenous variables, or major public investments in air terminals and new HSR lines, except for the Madrid–Barcelona AVE and Barcelona's T1. Domestic air transport has been seen to be more sensitive to the economic cycle than the other modes of transport. This paper contains a set of results that justify the need to use full and accurate “economic modeling” in the planning and management of what is generally very costly transport infrastructure.

This article examines the trends in road traffic fatality rates in a sample of European States over the 1970–2010 period. Taking into account that previous research seems to find that the Europeanization process has had a favorable impact on national road safety performance, our main contribution is to test whether the same mechanism might lead to the convergence of Member States as a whole as a possible outcome. Based on typical convergence methodology for Economic Growth Theory, our findings reveal evidence of the full convergence of road fatality rates across a sample of EU countries during said time period. Compared to the uncertain results obtained by the literature on macroeconomic convergence, we do not find support for the convergence of sub-groups of countries, but a one-speed-convergence for all EU countries. This fact shows that convergence is achievable in certain EU areas even beyond economic convergence through successful efforts made jointly at national and community levels.

Nowadays, speeding is one of the most relevant problems for traffic safety and most resistant to change in motorized countries. The key instruments in Speed Management Policy are speed limits. This road safety strategy is often established or changed, in order to save fuel during periods of rising prices. However, the relationship between speed limits and traffic accidents, is a topic widely discussed by researchers, and there seems to be some consensus about “speed kills.” By applying advanced time series models of unobserved components, our study investigates the impact of a temporary reduction of maximum speed limits, implemented in Spain in 2011, in terms of fuel consumption and fatalities. Our analysis shows that this measure caused a positive effect, although with a limited statistical significance, on fuel consumption and a discrete reduction in road mortality.

Nowadays, speeding is one of the most relevant problems for traffic safety and most resistant to change in motorized countries. The key instruments in Speed Management Policy are speed limits. This road safety strategy is often established or changed, in order to save fuel during periods of rising prices. However, the relationship between speed limits and traffic accidents, is a topic widely discussed by researchers, and there seems to be some consensus about 'speed kills.' By applying advanced time series models of unobserved components, our study investigates the impact of a temporary reduction of maximum speed limits, implemented in Spain in 2011, in terms of fuel consumption and fatalities. Our analysis shows that this measure caused a positive effect, although with a limited statistical significance, on fuel consumption and a discrete reduction in road mortality. The costs associated with this temporary change seem to explain the discrepancies between these estimates and the forecasts that initially held the Spanish government.

This article seeks to analyse the factors that determine the dynamics of the balance between supply and demand in the Spanish fresh fish market. For this, the time-series of fresh fish landed in the 1973–2009 period is analysed through an estimation of the series of transfer function models. Among other things, the findings in the Spanish case show a complex relationship between the amount of fish landed and price; a clear substitution relationship between fresh fish and aquaculture; a negative impact of labour costs in a manual labour-intensive sector such as fishing, which in developed countries is being affected by an exodus of manpower to other sectors where there is less uncertainty surrounding labour conditions; the impact of Spain being barred from international fishing grounds a result of the delimitation of exclusive economic zones (EEZs); and the dwindling importance of fisheries traffic as a result of the port devolution process begun in Spain in the early 1990s. The non-significance of a priori key factors, such as the price of oil and Spain's entry into the EEC, can be explained by widespread energy subsidies and contradictions in the objectives of the Common Fisheries Policy, respectively.

Responsabilizar a los individuos de su propio consumo doméstico de agua es una de las medidas utilizadas para reducir la creciente demanda de este recurso y conseguir un consumo sostenible compatible con el objetivo de equidad. La utilización de contadores individuales, en lugar de colectivos, o la tarificación por habitante y no por vivienda son dos medidas encaminadas a conseguir dichos objetivos. En esta ponencia, se evalúan estas medidas aplicadas en el aérea metropolitana de Sevilla en las dos últimas décadas mediante un modelo de componentes no observables

Los límites de velocidad son el instrumento fundamental en la Política de Gestión de la Velocidad, importante causa de muertes en la carretera en todo el mundo. Mediante la aplicación de Modelos de series temporales de Componentes no Observables, el presente estudio investiga los efectos de la reducción coyuntural de los límites de velocidad máximos, implementada en España durante la primavera de 2011 (dentro del Plan Nacional de Ahorro y Eficiencia Energética). Nuestro análisis demuestra que dicha medida causó un limitado efecto positivo, próximo al 1,5%, aunque de escasa significatividad estadística, sobre la principal variable en la que se pretendía incidir, el consumo de gasolina. Además provocó una reducción del 8%, en la siniestralidad en carreteras (que se reduce al 6,5% si se tiene en cuenta la siniestralidad total tanto en carretera como en vías urbanas). Estos resultados, en primer lugar, discrepan con las previsiones mucho más optimistas tanto del Gobierno Español como de otros organismos internacionales, como la IRTAD.

Making individuals take charge of their own domestic water consumption is one of the measures used to reduce the growing demand for this resource and to achieve sustainable consumption compatible with the goal of equity. The use of individual meters instead of communal meters and fixing tariffs by inhabitant rather than by household are two measures aimed at achieving these objectives. This article assesses the measures put in place in the Seville metropolitan area during the last 20 years with an unobserved component model set up in a statespace framework estimated using maximum likelihood. Water consumption elasticity to individual meters has changed from –0.307 to –1.317 with the introduction of per inhabitant tariffs, which demonstrates that there are watersaving synergies when the two measures are implemented together. The reductions in water consumption achieved with these measures are also longer lasting than the changes in consumption habits during the frequent droughts in Seville.

This paper analyses the effects that the largest aviation accident in Spain in the last 25 years affected decisions by potential passengers. There evidence is of a long-lasting “Rainman effect”, with passengers penalising the airline involved with a 20% long-term reduction in traffic. There were also substitution effects towards other means of transport at Madrid-Barajas, where the accident happened, although these were limited in time. There have been no significant effects on other companies or on the total traffic at the aeroplane’s destination airport, Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (Canary Islands), where there are no comparable substitutes for air transport.

At the beginning of the 21st century, the punishment strategies used by the Spanish administration were considerably hardened to achieve a reduction in road accidents. This hardening could also be seen in the mass-media public advertising campaigns, with a marked shift from gentle messages to threat-based advertisements. The goal of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of this radical change in terms of main road accident indicators and the time that the effects last using multivariate unobserved component models set up in a state space framework applied to monthly series for the 1980–2008 period. The main conclusion is that the effect on reducing road accidents is no greater when citizens are subjected to a greater level of threats in advertising campaigns than would on average be achieved using campaigns with a low level of threats. Secondly, the impact of bloody advertising in Spain is limited to the most serious accidents, those that cause deaths, either on highways or in built-up areas. Moreover, the positive effects progressively decrease as the average lifespan for significant effects of medium and high level campaigns on deaths on highways or in built-up areas was 8 months and almost 12 days. The results show that a reduction in numbers of deaths and injuries is always achieved when the level of harshness in the messages is increased after a period of several years of mild advertising

Airport systems organized spatially as hub-and-spoke systems where traditional airlines (Full-Service Network Carriers – FSNCs) dominate have been impacted by the continuing expansion of Low-Cost Carriers (LCCs) in mainly point-to-point connection systems. Using a methodology based on linear transfer function models, the objective of this paper is to reflect on the future of hubs and on whether their role as large geographical air transport nodes is in doubt. Although Spanish hubs have continued to strengthen their position of dominance, the consequences of this enforced coexistence has manifested itself in a substitution effect, with LCCs replacing FSNCs at the hubs for international, primarily intra-European, flights. The market for national flights, however, has not experienced any significant changes as this new development of LCCs in this market is fundamentally based on new demand from both new passengers and the greater travel frequency of current passengers. There is also room for complementarity between the two models, as national connections with LCC hubs feed long-distance destinations exploited solely by the FSNCs.

This paper quantifies the Ryanair Effect on the Spanish airline network. It proposes new methodology based on an advanced time series approach that allows both the direct and indirect effects of the incorporation of a new airline to be measured and that can be easily extrapolated to other airport systems. The findings show the mean indirect effect on other airlines, in absolute value, is 8.6 per cent of the total airport traffic, peaking at a maximum of almost 29 per cent. Also, surprisingly, there is found to be a negative indirect effect at only four of the ten airports analysed.

Este trabajo analiza mediante una aproximación avanzada de series temporales con el añadido de funciones de transferencia lineal de efectos las repercusiones que sobre las decisiones tomadas por los pasajeros tuvo el mayor accidente de aviación acontecido en los últimos 25 años en España. En primer lugar se aporta evidencia clara de que sí existe un ―Efecto Rainman‖ duradero, al penalizar los pasajeros a la aerolínea implicada, con una reducción a largo plazo del 20 por ciento en sus tráficos que ha marcado desde entonces el devenir de la aerolínea. También se dieron efectos sustitución claros, aunque limitados en el tiempo, hacia otros medios de transporte en el hinterland del aeropuerto de origen y lugar del siniestro Madrid-Barajas. En cambio no hay efectos significativos ni sobre otras compañías, ni sobre el tráfico total del aeropuerto de destino, Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, cuyo hinterland carece de sustitutos cercanos al transporte aéreo.

A principios del siglo XXI, hemos asistido a un endurecimiento considerable de las estrategias de prevención y sanción aplicadas por la Administración española en materia de seguridad vial, con objeto de lograr una reducción en los accidentes de tráfico. Este endurecimiento puede apreciarse de manera particular, en las campañas públicas de publicidad vial dirigidas a los diferentes medios de comunicación, a través de un cambio profundo en el diseño de los mensajes emitidos, pasando de un contenido suave a otro basado en imágenes impactantes cargadas de crudeza visual. Nuestro objetivo es evaluar la eficacia de este cambio radical en términos de los principales indicadores de accidentes de tráfico y el tiempo que duran esos efectos, mediante un modelo de componentes no observables multivariante establecido en un marco de espacio de los estados. La principal conclusión es que, cuyo los ciudadanos están sometidos a un mayor nivel de amenazas y dramatismo en las campañas de publicidad, el impacto logrado en términos de la reducción de los accidentes de tráfico, no es mayor de lo que en promedio se consigue mediante campañas más suaves, con un nivel más bajo de amenazas y crudeza visual. En segundo lugar, el verdadero impacto de la publicidad basada en imágenes sangrientas en España, se limita a los accidentes más graves, es decir, los que causan muertes, ya sea en carreteras o en las zonas urbanas, aunque estos efectos positivos disminuyen progresivamente. En definitiva, los resultados muestran que, para lograr una reducción significativa en el número de muertos y heridos por accidentes de tráfico, es necesario incrementar también significativamente el nivel de dureza en los mensajes emitidos, después de un cierto periodo con publicidad más leve.

El objetivo de esta ponencia es cu antificar el efecto de Ryanair en el sistema aeroportuario español. La principal contribución de la misma es ofrecer una nu eva propuesta metodológica, basada en un modelo de componentes no observables con función de transferencia, fácilmente extrapolable a otros sistemas aeroportuarios y/o aerolíneas. A diferencia de estudios previos, en nuestro modelo se diferencia el aumento en los tráficos generado por la propia co mpañía, de los efectos sustitución (negativo) y de llamada o sinergia (positivo) que sobre los tráficos de las restantes aerolíneas haya podido tener la llegada de la nueva aerolínea. Los resultados obtenidos evidencian una clara sobrevaloración de los efectos sustitución que provocaría Ryanair sobre las demás aerolíneas, y que han sido señalados generalmente por las asociaciones de agencias de viajes, mientras que se aporta una sólida evidencia de los efectos llamada o sinergia, es decir, que el modelo de Ryanair es generalmente compatible con la operativa de las restantes aerolíneas

The goal of this article is to evaluate the impact of the drastic Spanish Penal Code reform on the number of road deaths in Spain and the time that the effects might last. This is achieved by means of multivariate unobserved component models set up in a state space framework estimated using maximum likelihood. In short, with this reform Spain might be considered to be closing the final gap that kept it apart from other developed countries as far as the road accident rate is concerned. We have found two different types of effects on Spanish road traffic fatalities. Initially, a month before the reform was passed there was a 24.7 percent fall in Spanish road deaths. After the Bill had been passed and for the following thirteen months, the reduction stayed at a constant sixteen percent. This reform has reduced Spanish road fatalities by 534 in all between November 2007 and December 2008 and the effects will foreseeably continue during 2009

El objetivo de esta ponencia es evaluar los efectos de la reforma del Código Penal español de diciembre de 2007 sobre el número de muertes en carreteras españolas y la posible duración de los mismos. La metodología empleada es un modelo multivariable de componentes no observables en una state space framework estimado por maximización del logaritmo de verosimilitud. En resumen, se han encontrado dos clases diferentes de efectos sobre los accidentes de carretera. Inicialmente, un mes antes de la aprobación de la reforma, se produce una reducción de un 28.4 por ciento sobre los muertos en carretera. Tras la aprobación de la ley y durante los 13 meses siguientes, se ha mantenido constante una reducción del 16 por ciento. En total con esta reforma se han reducido las muertes en carretera en unas 534 víctimas entre noviembre de 2007 y diciembre de 2008 y previsiblemente los efectos continuaron durante 2009.

This article seeks to quantify the effects of the penalty points system driver’s license during the 18- month period following its coming into force. This is achieved by means of univariate and multivariate unobserved component models set up in a state space framework estimated using maximum likelihood. A detailed intervention analysis is carried out in order to test for the effects and their duration of the introduction of the penalty points system driver’s license in Spain. Other variables, mainly indicators of the level of economic activity in Spain, are also considered. Among the main effects, we can mention an average reduction of almost 12.6% in the number of deaths in highway accidents. It would take at least 2 years for that effect to disappear. For the rest of the safety indicator variables (vehicle occupants injured in highway accidents and vehicle occupants injured in accidents built-up areas) the effects disappeared 1 year after the law coming into force.