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Roadsides can be vectors for tree invasion within rangelands by bisecting landscapes and facilitating propagule spread to interior habitat. Current invasive tree management in North America’s Great Plains focuses on reducing on-site (i.e., interior habitat) vulnerability through on-site prevention and eradication, but invasive tree management of surrounding areas known to serve as invasion vectors, such as roadsides and public rights-of-ways, is sporadic. We surveyed roadsides for invasive tree propagule sources in a central Great Plains grassland landscape to determine how much of the surrounding landscape is potentially vulnerable to roadside invasion, and by which species, and thereby provide insights into the locations and forms of future landcover change. Invasive tree species were widespread in roadsides. Given modest seed dispersal distances of 100–200 m, our results show that roadsides have potential to serve as major sources of rangeland exposure to tree invasion, compromising up to 44% of rangelands in the study area. Under these dispersal distances, funds spent removing trees on rangeland properties may have little impact on the landscape’s overall vulnerability, due to exposure driven by roadside propagule sources. A key implication from this study is that roadsides, while often neglected from management, represent an important component of integrated management strategies for reducing rangeland vulnerability to tree invasion.

On the Ground • Rangeland management has entered a new era with the accessibility and advancement of satellite-derived maps. • Maps provide a comprehensive view of rangelands in space and time, and challenge us to think critically about natural variability. • Here, we advance the practice of using satellite-derived maps with four guiding principles designed to increase end user confidence and thereby accessibility of these data for decision-making.

Non-native organisms have invaded novel ecosystems for centuries, yet we have only a limited understanding of why their impacts vary widely from minor to severe. Predicting the impact of non-established or newly detected species could help focus biosecurity measures on species with the highest potential to cause widespread damage. However, predictive models require an understanding of potential drivers of impact and the appropriate level at which these drivers should be evaluated. Here, we used non-native, specialist herbivorous insects of forest ecosystems to test which factors drive impact and if there were differences based on whether they used woody angiosperms or conifers as hosts. We identified convergent and divergent patterns between the two host types indicating fundamental similarities and differences in their interactions with non-native insects. Evolutionary divergence time between native and novel hosts was a significant driver of insect impact for both host types but was modulated by different factors in the two systems. Beetles in the subfamily Scolytinae posed the highest risk to woody angiosperms, and different host traits influenced impact of specialists on conifers and woody angiosperms. Tree wood density was a significant predictor of host impact for woody angiosperms with intermediate densities (0.5–0.6 mg/mm3) associated with highest risk, whereas risk of impact was highest for conifers that coupled shade tolerance with drought intolerance. These results underscore the importance of identifying the relevant levels of biological organization and ecological interactions needed to develop accurate risk models for species that may arrive in novel ecosystems.

Quantifying resource selection (an organism's disproportionate use of available resources) is essential to infer habitat requirements of a species, develop management recommendations, predict species responses to changing conditions, and improve our understanding of the processes that underlie ecological patterns. Because study sites, even within the same region, can differ in both the amount and the arrangement of cover types, our objective was to determine whether proximal sites can yield markedly different resource selection results for a generalist bird, northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus). We used 5 years of telemetry locations and newly developed land cover data at two, geographically distinct but relatively close sites in the south‐central semi‐arid prairies of North America. We fit a series of generalized linear mixed models and used an information‐theoretic model comparison approach to identify and compare resource selection patterns at each site. We determined that the importance of different cover types to northern bobwhite is site‐dependent on relatively similar and nearby sites. Specifically, whether bobwhite selected for shrub cover and whether they strongly avoided trees, depended on the study site in focus. Additionally, the spatial scale of selection was nearly an order of magnitude different between the cover types. Our study demonstrates that—even for one of the most intensively studied species in the world—we may oversimplify resource selection by using a single study site approach. Managing the trade‐offs between practical, generalized conclusions and precise but complex conclusions is one of the central challenges in applied ecology. However, we caution against setting recommendations for broad extents based on information gathered at small extents, even for a generalist species at adjacent sites. Before extrapolating information to areas beyond the data collected, managers should account for local differences in the availability, arrangement, and scaling of resources., Though it is known that animals can show conditional selection responses (e.g., differential habitat selection in different areas of their range, under variable weather conditions, or in response to variable food availability), we test a scenario where ecologists might reasonably assume habitat selection patterns to be static. Specifically, we found marked differences in the direction, magnitude, and scale of habitat selection by a generalist bird at two, proximal study sites in the same area of the species' range. Our study demonstrates that—even for one of the most intensively studied species in the world—we are likely to oversimplify habitat selection by using a single study site approach.

Woodland expansion is a global challenge documented under varying degrees of disturbance, climate, and land ownership patterns. In North American rangelands, mechanical and chemical brush management practices and prescribed fire are frequently promoted by agencies and used by private landowners to reduce woody plant cover. We assess the distribution of agency-supported cost sharing of brush management (2000−2017) in the southern Great Plains, United States, and evaluate the longevity of treatment application. We test the general expectation that the current brush management paradigm in the southern Great Plains reduces woody plants and conserves rangeland resources at broad scales. This study represents the most comprehensive assessment of treatment longevity following brush management in the southern Great Plains by linking confidential private lands management data to a national inventory program (US Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service National Resources Inventory). We observed regional differences in the types of brush management techniques used in cost-sharing programs throughout the study area. Mechanical brush management was the most common practice cost shared in Texas, while a mixture of mechanical and chemical application was most common in Oklahoma. Prescribed fire was most common in Kansas with some areas receiving chemical treatment. Our analysis showed brush management, as implemented, did not reduce tree cover long term and minimally reduced shrub cover. Evidence to support the current brush management paradigm only existed at local site-level scales of analysis (40- to 50-acre area), but treatment effectiveness was short-lived. At regional scales, observed changes in woody plant cover showed little to no overall net reduction from 2000 to 2017. These findings bring into question the philosophy of the current brush management paradigm, its implementation as the default rangeland conservation practice, and its prioritization over alternative practices that prevent new woody plant establishment and enhance resilience of rangelands in the southern Great Plains region.

Some introduced species cause severe damage, though the majority have little impact. Robust predictions of which species are most likely to cause substantial impacts could focus efforts to mitigate those impacts or prevent certain invasions entirely. Introduced herbivorous insects can reduce crop yield, fundamentally alter natural and managed forest ecosystems, and are unique among invasive species in that they require certain host plants to succeed. Recent studies have demonstrated that understanding the evolutionary history of introduced herbivores and their host plants can provide robust predictions of impact. Specifically, divergence times between hosts in the native and introduced ranges of a non-native insect can be used to predict the potential impact of the insect should it establish in a novel ecosystem. However, divergence time estimates vary among published phylogenetic datasets, making it crucial to understand if and how the choice of phylogeny affects prediction of impact. Here, we tested the robustness of impact prediction to variation in host phylogeny by using insects that feed on conifers and predicting the likelihood of high impact using four different published phylogenies. Our analyses ranked 62 insects that are not established in North America and 47 North American conifer species according to overall risk and vulnerability, respectively. We found that results were robust to the choice of phylogeny. Although published vascular plant phylogenies continue to be refined, our analysis indicates that those differences are not substantial enough to alter the predictions of invader impact. Our results can assist in focusing biosecurity programs for conifer pests and can be more generally applied to non-native insects and their potential hosts by prioritizing surveillance for those insects most likely to be damaging invaders.

Harnessing energy for cooking, heating, eating, and travel is a fundamental human requirement and, prior to fossil fuel adoption, much energy was derived from local landscapes. In the North American Great Plains, the nineteenth century was a period of rapid social-ecological change, and adaptive fuel procurement was at its core. Here, we review nineteenth-century accounts of energy acquisition and use in Great Plains landscapes, documenting the utilities, renewabilities and geographic distributions of important organic fuels, excluding coal. Native and Euro-Americans devised and adopted diverse strategies for accessing energy stored in herbaceous biomass and woody biomass, which, although variable in form, availability, specific energy and energy density, could generally be obtained locally and regenerate relatively quickly. Three forms of herbaceous biomass - forage (undigested), buffalo chips (partially digested) and pemmican (metabolized) - were associated with ubiquity of prairie vegetation and bison, whereas woody biomass was a rarer fuel largely restricted to lowlands and decreasing from east to west. Amidst transformational waves of colonisation in dynamic environments, seasonal strategies for securing energy locally were supplanted by strategies of fuel storage and importation. All fuel-based adaptations had social-ecological causes and consequences and, in nineteenth century plains landscapes, colonisation facilitated rapid, cross-cultural exchanges of fuel sources, technologies, strategies for increasing energy access and human environmental influences that collectively shaped regional environmental history.

In the absence of technology-driven monitoring platforms, US rangeland policies, management practices, and outcome assessments have been primarily informed by the extrapolation of local information from national-scale rangeland inventories. A persistent monitoring gap between plot-level inventories and the scale at which rangeland assessments are conducted has required decision makers to fill data gaps with statistical extrapolations or assumptions of homogeneity and equilibrium. This gap is now being bridged with spatially comprehensive, annual, rangeland monitoring data across all western US rangelands to assess vegetation conditions at a resolution appropriate to inform cross-scale assessments and decisions. In this paper, 20-yr trends in plant functional type cover are presented, confirming two widespread national rangeland resource concerns: widespread increases in annual grass cover and tree cover. Rangeland vegetation monitoring is now available to inform national to regional policies and provide essential data at the scales at which decisions are made and implemented.

Roadsides can be vectors for tree invasion within grasslands by bisecting landscapes and facilitating propagule spread to interior habitat. Current invasive tree management in North America’s Great Plains focuses on reducing on-site (i.e., interior habitat) vulnerability through on-site prevention and eradication, but invasive tree management of surrounding areas known to serve as invasion vectors, such as roadsides and public rights-of-ways, is sporadic. We surveyed roadsides for invasive tree propagule sources in a southeastern Nebraska grassland landscape to determine how much of the surrounding landscape is potentially vulnerable to roadside invasion, and by which species, and thereby, provide insights into the locations and forms of future landcover change. Invasive tree species were widespread in roadsides. Given modest seed dispersal distances of 100-200 m, our results show that roadsides have potential to serve as major sources of grassland exposure to tree invasion, compromising up to 44% of grasslands in the Denton Hills. Under these dispersal distances, funds spent removing trees on grassland properties may have little impact on the landscape’s overall vulnerability, due to exposure driven by roadside propagule sources. A key implication from this study is that roadsides, while often neglected from management, represent an important component of integrated management strategies for reducing grassland vulnerability to tree invasion.

In this era of global environmental change and rapid regime shifts, managing core areas that species require to survive and persist is a grand challenge for conservation. Wildlife monitoring data are often limited or local in scale. The emerging ability to map and track spatial regimes (i.e., the spatial manifestation of state transitions) using advanced geospatial vegetation data has the potential to provide earlier warnings of habitat loss because many species of conservation concern strongly avoid spatial regime boundaries. Using 23 yr of data for the lek locations of Greater Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus cupido; GPC) in a remnant grassland ecosystem, we demonstrate how mapping changes in the boundaries between grassland and woodland spatial regimes provide a spatially explicit early warning signal for habitat loss for an iconic and vulnerable grassland-obligate known to be highly sensitive to woody plant encroachment. We tested whether a newly proposed metric for the quantification of spatial regimes captured well-known responses of GPC to woody plant expansion into grasslands. Resource selection functions showed that the grass:woody spatial regime boundary strength explained the probability of 80% of relative lek occurrence, and GPC strongly avoided grass:woody spatial regime boundaries at broad scales. Both findings are consistent with well-known expectations derived from GPC ecology. These results provide strong evidence for vegetation-derived delineations of spatial regimes to serve as generalized signals of early warning for state transitions that have major consequences to biodiversity conservation. Mapping spatial regime boundaries over time provided interpretable early warnings of habitat loss. Woody plant regimes displaced grassland regimes starting from the edges of the study area and constricting inward. Correspondingly, the relative probability of lek occurrence constricted in space. Similarly, the temporal trajectory of spatial regime boundary strength increased over time and moved closer to the observed limit of GPC lek site usage relative to grass:woody boundary strength. These novel spatial metrics allow managers to rapidly screen for early warning signals of spatial regime shifts and adapt management practices to defend and grow habitat cores at broad scales.

ObjectivePublic response monitoring is critical to reducing COVID-19 infections and developing effective public health strategies. This study explored Google search trends to understand public responses to COVID-19 concerns in Bangladesh.MethodsWe used country-level Google search trends data to examine the association between Google search terms related to COVID-19 deaths, face masks, and COVID-19 vaccines and the actual and one-week lagged actual COVID-19 death counts from February 2, 2020, to December 19, 2020, in Bangladesh. Results: Search terms related to COVID-19 deaths, face masks, and COVID-19 vaccines increased and peaked during March and April, but then began declining gradually after June 2020. The mean relative search volume for face masks (35 points) was higher than for death information (8 points) and vaccines (16 points) throughout the study period, and searching for masks peaked (100 points) during the third week of March. Search interests for death information and face masks were negatively correlated with the actual and one-week lagged actual COVID-19 death counts.ConclusionIn response to declining trends in COVID-19-related google search terms, policymakers should strengthen ongoing risk communication and preventive information dissemination programs to control and prevent COVID-19 cases and deaths.

The identity of an ecological regime is central to modern resilience theory and our understanding of how systems collapse and reorganize following disturbance. However, resilience-based models used in ecosystem management have been criticized for their failure to integrate disturbance outcomes into regime identity. Assessments are needed to understand how well these classifications represent ecosystem responses that occur over management relevant time scales. We tracked post-wildfire forest and grassland dynamics 27 years after wildfire in eastern ponderosa pine savanna. We tested for differences between the assigned identity of a site (forest or grassland) versus classifications based on the site's disturbance history (burned/unburned and fire severity). Under current ecosystem models used to manage these forest-grassland ecotones, forests that experience high severity fire are expected to resemble an unburned grassland following fire, while forests and grasslands that experience low severity fire are expected to resemble unburned forests and grasslands, respectively. Twenty-seven years after wildfire, burned forests and grasslands displayed a high degree of departure from their expected regime identity. Plant and bird communities deviated significantly on sites that experienced low severity fire from undisturbed sites classified under the same ecological regime (grassland or forest). Forest sites that experienced high severity fire were the most unique of all disturbance history classes. Our results demonstrate that structures and communities predicted under resilience-based models used for eastern ponderosa pine management do not emerge over management relevant time scales following disturbance. Over 20% of variation in ecological structures and communities was explained by a single, 27-year-old disturbance. Integrating disturbance legacies will help improve applied models of ecosystem dynamics.

Woody encroachment is a global driver of grassland loss and management to counteract encroachment represents one of the most expensive conservation practices implemented in grasslands. Yet, outcomes of these practices are often unknown at large scales and this constrains practitioner&rsquo, s ability to advance conservation. Here, we use new monitoring data to evaluate outcomes of grassland conservation on woody encroachment for Nebraska&rsquo, s State Wildlife Action Plan, a statewide effort that targets management in Biologically Unique Landscapes (BULs) to conserve the state&rsquo, s natural communities. We tracked woody cover trajectories for BULs and compared BUL trajectories with those in non-priority landscapes (non-BULs) to evaluate statewide and BUL-scale conservation outcomes more than a decade after BUL establishment. Statewide, woody cover increased by 256,653 ha (2.3%) from 2000&ndash, 2017. Most BULs (71%) experienced unsustainable trends of grassland loss to woody encroachment, however, management appeared to significantly reduce BUL encroachment rates compared to non-BULs. Most BULs with early signs of encroachment lacked control strategies, while only one BUL with moderate levels of encroachment (Loess Canyons) showed evidence of a management-driven stabilization of encroachment. These results identify strategic opportunities for proactive management in grassland conservation and demonstrate how new monitoring technology can support large-scale adaptive management pursuits.

Wildfires are ecosystem‐level drivers of structure and function in many vegetated biomes. While numerous studies have emphasized the benefits of fire to ecosystems, large wildfires have also been associated with the loss of ecosystem services and shifts in vegetation abundance. The size and number of wildfires are increasing across a number of regions, and yet the outcomes of large wildfire on vegetation at large‐scales are still largely unknown. We introduce an exhaustive analysis of wildfire‐scale vegetation response to large wildfires across North America's grassland biome. We use 18 years of a newly released vegetation data set combined with 1,390 geospatial wildfire perimeters and drought data to detect large‐scale vegetation response among multiple vegetation functional groups. We found no evidence of persistent declines in vegetation driven by wildfire at the biome level. All vegetation functional groups exhibited relatively rapid recovery to pre wildfire ranges of variation across the Great Plains ecoregions, with the exception being a persistent decrease in the abundance of trees in the Northwestern Great Plains. Drought intensity magnified immediate vegetation response to wildfire. Persistent declines in vegetation cover were observed at the scale of single pixels (30 m), suggesting that these responses were localized and represent extreme cases within larger wildfires. Our findings echo over a century of research demonstrating a biome resilient to wildfire.

The concept of adaptive capacity has received significant attention within social-ecological and environmental change research. Within both the resilience and vulnerability literatures specifically, adaptive capacity has emerged as a fundamental concept for assessing the ability of social-ecological systems to adapt to environmental change. Although methods and indicators used to evaluate adaptive capacity are broad, the focus of existing scholarship has predominately been at the individual- and household- levels. However, the capacities necessary for humans to adapt to global environmental change are often a function of individual and societal characteristics, as well as cumulative and emergent capacities across communities and jurisdictions. In this paper, we apply a systematic literature review and co-citation analysis to investigate empirical research on adaptive capacity that focus on societal levels beyond the household. Our review demonstrates that assessments of adaptive capacity at higher societal levels are increasing in frequency, yet vary widely in approach, framing, and results; analyses focus on adaptive capacity at many different levels (e.g. community, municipality, global region), geographic locations, and cover multiple types of disturbances and their impacts across sectors. We also found that there are considerable challenges with regard to the ‘fit’ between data collected and analytical methods used in adequately capturing the cross-scale and cross-level determinants of adaptive capacity. Current approaches to assessing adaptive capacity at societal levels beyond the household tend to simply aggregate individual- or household-level data, which we argue oversimplifies and ignores the inherent interactions within and across societal levels of decision-making that shape the capacity of humans to adapt to environmental change across multiple scales. In order for future adaptive capacity research to be more practice-oriented and effectively guide policy, there is a need to develop indicators and assessments that are matched with the levels of potential policy applications.

This study investigates the influence of climate change on groundwater availability, and thereby, irrigation across political boundaries within the US High Plains aquifer. A regression model is developed to predict changes in irrigation according to predicted changes in precipitation and temperature from a downscaled dataset of 32 general circulation models (GCMs). Precipitation recharge changes are calculated with precipitation-recharge curves developed for prognostic representations of precipitation across the Nebraska-Colorado-Kansas area and within the Republican River Basin focal landscape. Irrigation-recharge changes are scaled with changes in irrigation. The groundwater responses to climate forcings are then simulated under new pumping and recharge rates using a MODFLOW groundwater flow model. Results show that groundwater pumping and recharge both will increase and that the effects of groundwater pumping will overshadow those from natural fluctuations. Groundwater levels will decline more in areas with irrigation-driven decreasing trends in the baseline. The methodologies and predictions of this study can inform long-term water planning and the design of management strategies that help avoid and resolve water-related conflicts, enabling irrigation sustainability.

The Chinese mystery snail, Bellamya chinensis (Gray, 1834) is a gastropod native to East Asia and is considered an invasive species in North America where its impacts on native species and ecosystems are not well understood. Scientific literature describing its biology and life history are sparse. Thermal tolerance limits, or the maximum and minimum temperature under which a species can survive, are key to identifying the potential geographical range of a species. The ability of managers to control invasive species is directly impacted by the thermal tolerance limits of a species. We attempted to identify the thermal tolerance limits of B. chinensis in a laboratory setting. Using a random sampling design, we exposed groups of wild-caught B. chinensis to either extreme high or low temperature treatments. We identified the upper temperature tolerance limit as between 40 and 45 °C. This result indicates some hot water management techniques may successfully prevent spread of B. chinensis among waterways. Despite exposing B. chinensis to freezing temperatures for extended periods of time we did not identify a lower temperature limit. Identifying the thermal tolerance limits of this and other invasive species informs predictions of range expansion and identification of potential prevention efforts.

Screening is a strategy for detecting undesirable change prior to manifestation of symptoms or adverse effects. Although the well-recognized utility of screening makes it commonplace in medicine, it has yet to be implemented in ecosystem management. Ecosystem management is in an era of diagnosis and treatment of undesirable change, and as a result, remains more reactive than proactive and unable to effectively deal with today’s plethora of non-stationary conditions. In this paper, we introduce spatial imaging-based screening to ecology. We link advancements in spatial resilience theory, data, and technological and computational capabilities and power to detect regime shifts (i.e., vegetation state transitions) that are known to be detrimental to human well-being and ecosystem service delivery. With a state-of-the-art landcover dataset and freely-available, cloud-based, geospatial computing platform, we screen for spatial signals of the three most iconic vegetation transitions studied in western USA rangelands: (1) erosion and desertification; (2) woody encroachment; and (3) annual exotic grass invasion. For a series of locations that differ in ecological complexity and geographic extent, we answer the following questions: (1) Which regime shift is expected or of greatest concern? (2) Can we detect a transition signal associated with the expected regime shift? (3) If detected, is the transition signal transient or persistent over time? (4) If detected and persistent, is the transition signal stationary or non-stationary over time? (5) What other signals do we detect? Our approach reveals a powerful and flexible methodology, whereby professionals can use spatial imaging to verify the occurrence of alternative vegetation regimes, image the spatial boundaries separating regimes, track the magnitude and direction of regime shift signals, differentiate persistent and stationary transition signals that warrant continued screening from the more concerning persistent and non-stationary transition signals, and then leverage disciplinary strength and resources for more targeted diagnostic testing (e.g., inventory and monitoring) and treatment (e.g., management) of regime shifts. While the rapid screening approach used here can continue to be implemented and refined for rangelands, it has broader implications and can be adapted to other ecological systems to revolutionize the information space needed to better manage critical transitions in nature.

Charting trajectories toward sustainable agricultural development is an important goal at the food–energy–water–ecosystem services (FEWES) nexus of agricultural landscapes. Social–ecological adaptation and transformation are two broad strategies for adjusting and resetting the trajectories of productive FEWES nexuses toward sustainable futures. In some cases, financial incentives, technological innovations, and/or subsidies associated with the short-term optimization of a small number of resources create and strengthen unsustainable feedbacks between social and ecological entities at the FEWES nexus. These feedbacks form the basis of rigidity traps, which impede adaptation and transformation by locking FEWES nexuses into unsustainable trajectories characterized by control, stability, and efficiency, but also an inability to adapt to disturbances or changing conditions. To escape and avoid rigidity traps and enable sustainability-focused adaptation and transformation, a foundational understanding of FEWES nexuses and their unique trajectories and traps is required. We present a framework for tracing trajectories and traps at the FEWES nexuses of intensive agricultural landscapes. Framework implementation in a case study reveals feedbacks characteristic of rigidity traps, as well as opportunities for modifying and dissolving them. Such place-based understanding could inform sustainable agricultural development at the FEWES nexus of intensive agricultural landscapes worldwide.

The utilization of species distribution model(s) (SDM) for approximating, explaining, and predicting changes in species’ geographic locations is increasingly promoted for proactive ecological management. Although frameworks for modeling non-invasive species distributions are relatively well developed, their counterparts for invasive species—which may not be at equilibrium within recipient environments and often exhibit rapid transformations—are lacking. Additionally, adaptive ecological management strategies address the causes and effects of biological invasions and other complex issues in social-ecological systems. We conducted a review of biological invasions, species distribution models, and adaptive practices in ecological management, and developed a framework for adaptive, niche-based, invasive species distribution model (iSDM) development and utilization. This iterative, 10-step framework promotes consistency and transparency in iSDM development, allows for changes in invasive drivers and filters, integrates mechanistic and correlative modeling techniques, balances the avoidance of type 1 and type 2 errors in predictions, encourages the linking of monitoring and management actions, and facilitates incremental improvements in models and management across space, time, and institutional boundaries. These improvements are useful for advancing coordinated invasive species modeling, management and monitoring from local scales to the regional, continental and global scales at which biological invasions occur and harm native ecosystems and economies, as well as for anticipating and responding to biological invasions under continuing global change.

Mismatches between invasive species management policies and ecological knowledge can lead to profound societal consequences. For this reason, natural resource agencies have adopted the scientifically-based density-impact invasive species curve to guide invasive species management. We use the density-impact model to evaluate how well management policies for a native invader (Juniperus virginiana) match scientific guidelines. Juniperus virginiana invasion is causing a sub-continental regime shift from grasslands to woodlands in central North America, and its impacts span collapses in endemic diversity, heightened wildfire risk, and crashes in grazing land profitability. We (1) use land cover data to identify the stage of Juniperus virginiana invasion for three ecoregions within Nebraska, USA, (2) determine the range of invasion stages at individual land parcel extents within each ecoregion based on the density-impact model, and (3) determine policy alignment and mismatches relative to the density-impact model in order to assess their potential to meet sustainability targets and avoid societal impacts as Juniperus virginiana abundance increases. We found that nearly all policies evidenced doublethink and policy-ecology mismatches, for instance, promoting spread of Juniperus virginiana regardless of invasion stage while simultaneously managing it as a native invader in the same ecoregion. Like other invasive species, theory and literature for this native invader indicate that the consequences of invasion are unlikely to be prevented if policies fail to prioritize management at incipient invasion stages. Theory suggests a more realistic approach would be to align policy with the stage of invasion at local and ecoregion management scales. There is a need for scientists, policy makers, and ecosystem managers to move past ideologies governing native versus non-native invader classification and toward a framework that accounts for the uniqueness of native species invasions, their anthropogenic drivers, and their impacts on ecosystem services.

Ecological reserves provide important wildlife habitat in many landscapes, and the functional connectivity of reserves and other suitable habitat patches is crucial for the persistence and resilience of spatially structured populations. To maintain or increase connectivity at spatial scales larger than individual patches, conservation actions may focus on creating and maintaining reserves and/or influencing management on non-reserves. Using a graph-theoretic approach, we assessed the functional connectivity and spatial distribution of wetlands in the Rainwater Basin of Nebraska, USA, an intensively cultivated agricultural matrix, at four assumed, but ecologically realistic, anuran dispersal distances. We compared connectivity in the current landscape to the historical landscape and putative future landscapes, and evaluated the importance of individual and aggregated reserve and non-reserve wetlands for maintaining connectivity. Connectivity was greatest in the historical landscape, where wetlands were also the most densely distributed. The construction of irrigation reuse pits for water storage has maintained connectivity in the current landscape by replacing destroyed wetlands, but these pits likely provide suboptimal habitat. Also, because there are fewer total wetlands (i.e., wetlands and irrigation reuse pits) in the current landscape than the historical landscape, and because the distribution of current wetlands is less clustered than that of historical wetlands, larger and longer dispersing, sometimes nonnative species may be favored over smaller, shorter dispersing species of conservation concern. Because of their relatively low number, wetland reserves do not affect connectivity as greatly as non-reserve wetlands or irrigation reuse pits; however, they likely provide the highest quality anuran habitat. To improve future levels of resilience in this wetland habitat network, management could focus on continuing to improve the conservation status of non-reserve wetlands, restoring wetlands at spatial scales that promote movements of shorter dispersing species, and further scrutinizing irrigation reuse pit removal by considering effects on functional connectivity for anurans, an emblematic and threatened group of organisms. However, broader conservation plans will need to give consideration to other wetland-dependent species, incorporate invasive species management, and address additional challenges arising from global change in social-ecological systems like the Rainwater Basin.

Conversion of native prairie to agriculture has increased food and bioenergy production but decreased wildlife habitat. However, enrollment of highly erodible cropland in conservation programs has compensated for some grassland loss. In the future, climate change and production of second-generation perennial biofuel crops could further transform agricultural landscapes and increase or decrease grassland area. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) is an alternative biofuel feedstock that may be economically and environmentally superior to maize (Zea mays) grain for ethanol production on marginally productive lands. Switchgrass could benefit farmers economically and increase grassland area, but there is uncertainty as to how conversions between rowcrops, switchgrass monocultures and conservation grasslands might occur and affect wildlife. To explore potential impacts on grassland birds, we developed four agricultural land-use change scenarios for an intensively cultivated landscape, each driven by potential future climatic changes and ensuing irrigation limitations, ethanol demand, commodity prices, and continuation of a conservation program. For each scenario, we calculated changes in area for landcover classes and predicted changes in grassland bird abundances. Overall, birds responded positively to the replacement of rowcrops with switchgrass and negatively to the conversion of conservation grasslands to switchgrass or rowcrops. Landscape context and interactions between climate, crop water use, and irrigation availability could influence future land-use, and subsequently, avian habitat quality and quantity. Switchgrass is likely to provide higher quality avian habitat than rowcrops but lower quality habitat than conservation grasslands, and therefore, may most benefit birds in heavily cultivated, irrigation dependent landscapes under warmer and drier conditions, where economic profitability may also encourage conversions to drought tolerant bioenergy feedstocks.

The exoskeleton of gastropods provides a convenient surface for carrying marks, and in the interest of improving future marking methods our laboratory assessed the performance of an enamel paint. The endurance of the paint was also compared to other marking methods assessed in the past. We marked the shells of 30 adult Chinese mystery snails Bellamya chinensis and held them in an aquarium for 181 days. We observed no complete degradation of any enamel-paint mark during the 181 days. The enamel-paint mark was superior to a nail-polish mark, which lasted a median of 100 days. Enamel-paint marks also have a lower rate of loss (0.00 month -1 181 days) than plastic bee tags (0.01 month -1 , 57 days), gouache paint (0.07 month -1 , 18.5 days), or car body paint from studies found in scientific literature. Legibility of enamelpaint marks had a median lifetime of 102 days. The use of enamel paint on the shells of gastropods is a viable option for studies lasting up to 6 months. Furthermore, visits to a capture-mark-recapture site 1 year after application of enamel-paint marks on B. chinensis shells produced several individuals on which the enamel paint was still visible, although further testing is required to clarify durability over longer periods.

The Chinese mystery snail (Bellamya chinensis) is a non-indigenous, invasive species in freshwater ecosystems of North America. We provide fecundity estimates for a population of these snails in a Nebraska reservoir. We dissected 70 snails, of which 29 were females. Nearly all female snails contained developing young, with an average of 25 young per female. Annual fecundity was estimated at between 27.2 and 33.3 young per female per year. Based on an estimated adult population and the calculated fecundity, the annual production for this reservoir was between 2.2 and 3.7 million young.

IRRIGATION AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION Irrigation increases agricultural productivity, but it also stresses water resources (Huffaker and Hamilton 2007). Drought and the potential for drier conditions resulting from climate change could strain water supplies in landscapes where human populations rely on finite groundwater resources for drinking, agriculture, energy, and industry (IPCC 2007). For instance, in the North American Great Plains, rowcrops are utilized for livestock feed, food, and bioenergy production (Cassman and Liska 2007), and a large portion is irrigated with groundwater from the High Plains aquifer system (McGuire 2011). Under projected future climatic conditions, greater crop water use requirements and diminished groundwater recharge rates could make rowcrop irrigation less feasible in some areas (Rosenberg et al. 1999; Sophocleous 2005). The Rainwater Basin region of south central Nebraska, United States, is an intensively farmed and irrigated Great Plains landscape dominated by corn ( Zea mays L.) and soybean ( Glycine max L.) production (Bishop and Vrtiska 2008). Ten starch-based ethanol plants currently service the region, producing ethanol from corn grain (figure 1). In this study, we explore the potential of switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.), a drought-tolerant alternative bioenergy feedstock, to impact regional annual groundwater withdrawals for irrigation under warmer and…

To date, cellulosic ethanol production has not been commercialized in the United States. However, government mandates aimed at increasing second-generation biofuel production could spur exploratory development in the cellulosic ethanol industry. We conducted an in-depth analysis of the fuelshed surrounding a starch-based ethanol plant near York, Nebraska that has the potential for cellulosic ethanol production. To assess the feasibility of supplying adequate biomass for year-round cellulosic ethanol production from residual maize (Zea mays) stover and bioenergy switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) within a 40-km road network service area of the existing ethanol plant, we identified ∼14,000 ha of marginally productive cropland within the service area suitable for conversion from annual rowcrops to switchgrass and ∼132,000 ha of maize-enrolled cropland from which maize stover could be collected. Annual maize stover and switchgrass biomass supplies within the 40-km service area could range between 429,000 and 752,000 metric tons (mT). Approximately 140–250 million liters (l) of cellulosic ethanol could be produced, rivaling the current 208 million l annual starch-based ethanol production capacity of the plant. We conclude that sufficient quantities of biomass could be produced from maize stover and switchgrass near the plant to support year-round cellulosic ethanol production at current feedstock yields, sustainable removal rates and bioconversion efficiencies. Modifying existing starch-based ethanol plants in intensive agricultural fuelsheds could increase ethanol output, return marginally productive cropland to perennial vegetation, and remove maize stover from productive cropland to meet feedstock demand.

Aim To provide the first analysis of predictors of both establishment and spread, both within and across taxa, for all vertebrate taxa within a region. We used Florida, USA, as our study system because it has a well-documented history of introduction and invasion, and is a hotspot for biological invasions. Location Florida, USA. Methods We analysed non-indigenous species (NIS) data from peninsular Florida – which included both successful and unsuccessful introductions from all vertebrate classes – to determine the best predictors of both establishment and spread for fish (65 species), herpetofauna (63 species), birds (71 species) and mammals (25 species). We used 10 variables proposed to be associated with the establishment and spread of NIS: body mass, geographic origin, reproductive rate, diet generalism, native-range size, latitude of native range, number of NIS present at date of introduction, presence of NIS congeners, morphological proximity to other NIS (in terms of body mass) and propagule pressure. A multimodel selection process was used with an information-theoretic approach to determine the best fit models for predicting establishment and spread of NIS. We selected a priori plausible predictive models for establishment and spread. Results Large native-range size and small body mass best predicted establishment of non-indigenous herpetofauna. The presence of NIS congeners had the largest positive effect on the establishment of non-indigenous fish. For mammals, the number of NIS present at the time of introduction best explained establishment. No single model best explained bird establishment. For all taxa but birds, the number of NIS present at time of introduction was included in at least one of the best-supported models for explaining spread.

Eighty-five percent of United States citizens live in urban areas. However, research surrounding the resilience and sustainability of complex urban systems focuses largely on coastal megacities (>1 million people). Midsize cities differ from their larger counterparts due to tight urban-rural feedbacks with their immediate natural environments that result from heavy reliance and close management of local ecosystem services. They also may be less path-dependent than larger cities due to shorter average connection length among system components, contributing to higher responsiveness among social, infrastructural, and ecological feedbacks. These distinct midsize city features call for a framework that organizes information and concepts concerning the sustainability of midsize cities specifically. We argue that an integrative approach is necessary to capture properties emergent from the complex interactions of the social, infrastructural, and ecological subsystems that comprise a city system. We suggest approaches to estimate the relative resilience of midsize cities, and include an example assessment to illustrate one such estimation approach. Resilience assessments of a midsize city can be used to examine why some cities end up on sustainable paths while others diverge to unsustainable paths, and which feedbacks may be partially responsible. They also provide insight into how city planners and decision makers can use information about the resilience of midsize cities undergoing growth or shrinkage relative to their larger and smaller counterparts, to transform them into long-term, sustainable social-ecological systems.

The Chinese mystery snail (Bellamya chinensis) is an aquatic invasive species in North America. Little is known regarding this species' impacts on freshwater ecosystems. It is believed that population densities can be high, yet no population estimates have been reported. We utilized a mark-recapture approach to generate a population estimate for Chinese mystery snail in Wild Plum Lake, a 6.47-ha reservoir in southeast Nebraska. We calculated, using bias-adjusted Lincoln-Petersen estimation, that there were approximately 664 adult snails within a 127 m 2 transect (5.2 snails/m 2 ). If this density was consistent throughout the littoral zone (

Switchgrass research has been conducted cooperatively by the US Department of Agriculture and the University of Nebraska since the mid-1930s, with a primary focus on bioenergy since 1990 at several institutions. Progress has been made in switchgrass breeding and genetics, molecular genetics, establishment, fertility management, production economics, production energetics, harvest and storage management, ecosystem services and ethanol yield. A complete field-validated biomass production system has been developed for the Midwest and Central Plains. Even with favorable economic and sustainability results from field trials, switchgrass for bioenergy has not been adopted on a large scale. Lack of adoption is likely due to lower than needed efficiencies for conversion technologies, farmers not wanting to plant switchgrass without a viable bioenergy market and biorefineries not wanting to build without a viable long-term feedstock supply already in place. Answers to 22 of the most pressing questions concerning t...

Global transformations extend beyond local habitats; therefore, larger-scale approaches are needed to assess community-level responses and resilience to unfolding environmental changes. Using long-term data (1996–2011), we evaluated spatial patterns and functional redundancies in the littoral invertebrate communities of 85 Swedish lakes, with the objective of assessing their potential resilience to environmental change at regional scales (that is, spatial resilience). Multivariate spatial modeling was used to differentiate groups of invertebrate species exhibiting spatial patterns in composition and abundance (that is, deterministic species) from those lacking spatial patterns (that is, stochastic species). We then determined the functional feeding attributes of the deterministic and stochastic invertebrate species, to infer resilience. Between one and three distinct spatial patterns in invertebrate composition and abundance were identified in approximately one-third of the species; the remainder were stochastic. We observed substantial differences in metrics between deterministic and stochastic species. Functional richness and diversity decreased over time in the deterministic group, suggesting a loss of resilience in regional invertebrate communities. However, taxon richness and redundancy increased monotonically in the stochastic group, indicating the capacity of regional invertebrate communities to adapt to change. Our results suggest that a refined picture of spatial resilience emerges if patterns of both the deterministic and stochastic species are accounted for. Spatially extensive monitoring may help increase our mechanistic understanding of community-level responses and resilience to regional environmental change, insights that are critical for developing management and conservation agendas in this current period of rapid environmental transformation.

Biological invasions threaten native species and ecosystems worldwide. Estimating the level of risk that an invasive alien species poses to native species across landscapes is important for prioritizing mitigation efforts. We describe a risk assessment approach that incorporates spatial heterogeneity in effects and illustrate this method by considering the risk that the red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta) presents to two native birds. The common ground-dove (Columbina passerina), an oviparous, ground-nesting species with altricial young that prefers open habitats, is more susceptible to impacts from fire ants than the swallow-tailed kite (Elanoides forficatus), which occupies closed-canopy forests, nests high in trees, is oviparous and has altricial young. Risk approaches that consider land scapes and that are spatially explicit are of particular relevance as remaining un-developed lands become increasingly un common, disjointed and more important for the management and recovery of native species and ecosystems.

Reservoir characterization is a process that describes the rock and fluid properties for a volume of the subsurface that produces or has the potential to produce hydrocarbons. This process integrates measurements into models of the subsurface from the disciplines of geology, geophysics and reservoir engineering, e.g. well log, seismic, and dynamic pressure data, respectively.

In the present period of rapid, worldwide change in climate and landuse (i.e., global change), successful biodiversity conservation warrants proactive management responses, especially for long-distance migratory species. However, the development and implementation of management strategies can be impeded by high levels of uncertainty and low levels of control over potentially impactful future events and their effects. Scenario planning and modeling are useful tools for expanding perspectives and informing decisions under these conditions. We coupled scenario planning and statistical modeling to explain and predict playa wetland inundation (i.e., presence/absence of water) and ponded area (i.e., extent of water) in the Rainwater Basin, an anthropogenically altered landscape that provides critical stopover habitat for migratory waterbirds. Inundation and ponded area models for total wetlands, those embedded in rowcrop fields, and those not embedded in rowcrop fields were trained and tested with wetland ponding data from 2004 and 2006–2009, and then used to make additional predictions under two alternative climate change scenarios for the year 2050, yielding a total of six predictive models and 18 prediction sets. Model performance ranged from moderate to good, with inundation models outperforming ponded area models, and models for non-rowcrop-embedded wetlands outperforming models for total wetlands and rowcrop-embedded wetlands. Model predictions indicate that if the temperature and precipitation changes assumed under our climate change scenarios occur, wetland stopover habitat availability in the Rainwater Basin could decrease in the future. The results of this and similar studies could be aggregated to increase knowledge about the potential spatial and temporal distributions of future stopover habitat along migration corridors, and to develop and prioritize multi-scale management actions aimed at mitigating the detrimental effects of global change on migratory waterbird populations.

In this case study from a fractured, locally karstified, and hydrothermally leached carbonate platform we show how proper selection of prognostic seismic attributes significantly rejuvenates a mature play by reducing drilling risk. To optimize rewards from applied subsurface geophysical interpretation, it proves beneficial to place seismic attributes into their proper regional geological context. The complex interplay between physical, geometric, and elastic formation parameters may assist exploration/exploitation efforts in advance by high-grading attribute selection during prospecting. The field-tested exploration strategy presented here encapsulates all pertinent play characteristics into a viable geological model within which each dominant reservoir property is expressed as a risk parameter that in turn can be resolved by a seismic attribute. Seismic attribute analysis permits illumination of discrete reservoir properties, specifically: 1.) fracturing, 2.) lithology (dolomitization), and, 3.) porosity.

Seismic interpreters are required to work with larger and larger seismic volumes as the amount of seismic data we acquire and process continues to increase. Rapid advances in seismic attribute methods further increase our data-set sizes by providing many coincident seismic attribute volumes for each data set.