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In his comment (Kowalski 2023) on our recent publication (Heiskanen et al. 2022) where we present the Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) research infrastructure, Andrew Kowalski introduces three important and, [...]

Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) are a crucial component of biosphere-atmosphere interactions. In northern latitudes, climate change is amplified by feedback processes in which BVOCs have a recognized, yet poorly quantified role, mainly due to a lack of measurements and concomitant modeling gaps. Hence, current Earth system models mostly rely on temperature responses measured on vegetation from lower latitudes, rendering their predictions highly uncertain. Here, we show how tundra isoprene emissions respond vigorously to temperature increases, compared to model results. Our unique dataset of direct eddy covariance ecosystem-level isoprene measurements in two contrasting ecosystems exhibited Q10 (the factor by which the emission rate increases with a 10 °C rise in temperature) temperature coefficients of up to 20.8, that is, 3.5 times the Q10 of 5.9 derived from the equivalent model calculations. Crude estimates using the observed temperature responses indicate that tundra vegetation could enhance their isoprene emissions by up to 41% (87%)-that is, 46% (55%) more than estimated by models-with a 2 °C (4 °C) warming. Our results demonstrate that tundra vegetation possesses the potential to substantially boost its isoprene emissions in response to future rising temperatures, at rates that exceed the current Earth system model predictions.

Wetland methane (CH4) emissions ([Formula: see text]) are important in global carbon budgets and climate change assessments. Currently, [Formula: see text] projections rely on prescribed static temperature sensitivity that varies among biogeochemical models. Meta-analyses have proposed a consistent [Formula: see text] temperature dependence across spatial scales for use in models; however, site-level studies demonstrate that [Formula: see text] are often controlled by factors beyond temperature. Here, we evaluate the relationship between [Formula: see text] and temperature using observations from the FLUXNET-CH4 database. Measurements collected across the globe show substantial seasonal hysteresis between [Formula: see text] and temperature, suggesting larger [Formula: see text] sensitivity to temperature later in the frost-free season (about 77% of site-years). Results derived from a machine-learning model and several regression models highlight the importance of representing the large spatial and temporal variability within site-years and ecosystem types. Mechanistic advancements in biogeochemical model parameterization and detailed measurements in factors modulating CH4 production are thus needed to improve global CH4 budget assessments.

Peatlands store substantial amounts of carbon and are vulnerable to climate change. We present a modified version of the Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model for simulating the hydrology, surface energy, and CO2 fluxes of peatlands on daily to annual timescales. The model includes a separate soil tile in each 0.5° grid cell, defined from a global peatland map and identified with peat-specific soil hydraulic properties. Runoff from non-peat vegetation within a grid cell containing a fraction of peat is routed to this peat soil tile, which maintains shallow water tables. The water table position separates oxic from anoxic decomposition. The model was evaluated against eddy-covariance (EC) observations from 30 northern peatland sites, with the maximum rate of carboxylation (Vcmax) being optimized at each site. Regarding short-term day-to-day variations, the model performance was good for gross primary production (GPP) (r2 Combining double low line 0.76; Nash-Sutcliffe modeling efficiency, MEF Combining double low line 0.76) and ecosystem respiration (ER, r2 Combining double low line 0.78, MEF Combining double low line 0.75), with lesser accuracy for latent heat fluxes (LE, r2 Combining double low line 0.42, MEF Combining double low line 0.14) and and net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE, r2 Combining double low line 0.38, MEF Combining double low line 0.26). Seasonal variations in GPP, ER, NEE, and energy fluxes on monthly scales showed moderate to high r2 values (0.57-0.86). For spatial across-site gradients of annual mean GPP, ER, NEE, and LE, r2 values of 0.93, 0.89, 0.27, and 0.71 were achieved, respectively. Water table (WT) variation was not well predicted (r2

The processes responsible for methane (CH4) emissions from boreal wetlands are complex; hence, their model representation is complicated by a large number of parameters and parameter uncertainties. The arctic-enabled dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Lund–Potsdam–Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) is one such model that allows quantification and understanding of the natural wetland CH4 fluxes at various scales, ranging from local to regional and global, but with several uncertainties. The model contains detailed descriptions of the CH4 production, oxidation, and transport controlled by several process parameters. Complexities in the underlying environmental processes, warming-driven alternative paths of meteorological phenomena, and changes in hydrological and vegetation conditions highlight the need for a calibrated and optimised version of LPJ-GUESS. In this study, we formulated the parameter calibration as a Bayesian problem, using knowledge of reasonable parameters values as priors. We then used an adaptive Metropolis–Hastings (MH)-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to improve predictions of CH4 emission by LPJ-GUESS and to quantify uncertainties. Application of this method on uncertain parameters allows for a greater search of their posterior distribution, leading to a more complete characterisation of the posterior distribution with a reduced risk of the sample impoverishment that can occur when using other optimisation methods. For assimilation, the analysis used flux measurement data gathered during the period from 2005 to 2014 from the Siikaneva wetlands in Southern Finland with an estimation of measurement uncertainties. The data are used to constrain the processes behind the CH4 dynamics, and the posterior covariance structures are used to explain how the parameters and the processes are related. To further support the conclusions, the CH4 flux and the other component fluxes associated with the flux are examined. The results demonstrate the robustness of MCMC methods to quantitatively assess the interrelationship between objective function choices, parameter identifiability, and data support. The experiment using real observations from Siikaneva resulted in a reduction in the root-mean-square error (RMSE), from 0.044 to 0.023 gC m -2 d -1 , and a 93.89 % reduction in the cost function value. As a part of this work, knowledge about how CH4 data can constrain the parameters and processes is derived. Although the optimisation is performed based on a single site's flux data from Siikaneva, the algorithm is useful for larger-scale multi-site studies for a more robust calibration of LPJ-GUESS and similar models, and the results can highlight where model improvements are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Significant climate risks are associated with a positive carbon-temperature feedback in northern latitude carbon-rich ecosystems, making an accurate analysis of human impacts on the net greenhouse gas balance of wetlands a priority. Here, we provide a coherent assessment of the climate footprint of a network of wetland sites based on simultaneous and quasi-continuous ecosystem observations of CO2 and CH4 fluxes. Experimental areas are located both in natural and in managed wetlands and cover a wide range of climatic regions, ecosystem types, and management practices. Based on direct observations we predict that sustained CH4 emissions in natural ecosystems are in the long term (i.e., several centuries) typically offset by CO2 uptake, although with large spatiotemporal variability. Using a space-for-time analogy across ecological and climatic gradients, we represent the chronosequence from natural to managed conditions to quantify the "cost" of CH4 emissions for the benefit of net carbon sequestration. With a sustained pulse-response radiative forcing model, we found a significant increase in atmospheric forcing due to land management, in particular for wetland converted to cropland. Our results quantify the role of human activities on the climate footprint of northern wetlands and call for development of active mitigation strategies for managed wetlands and new guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) accounting for both sustained CH4 emissions and cumulative CO2 exchange.

In this study, we use a data assimilation framework based on the Adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to constrain process parameters in LPJ-GUESS using CH4 eddy covariance flux observations from 14 different natural boreal and temperate wetlands. The objective is to derive a single set of calibrated parameter values. These parameters are then used in the model to validate its CH4 flux output against 5 different types of natural wetlands situated in different locations, assessing their generality for simulating CH4 fluxes from different boreal and temperate wetlands. The results show that the MCMC framework has substantially reduced the cost function (measuring the misfit between simulated and observed CH4 fluxes) and facilitated detailed characterisation of the posterior distribution. A reduction of around 95 % in the cost function and approximately 50 % in RMSE were observed. The validation experiment results indicate that four out of 5 sites successfully reduced RMSE, demonstrating the effectiveness of the framework for estimating CH4 emissions from wetlands not included in the study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic terrestrial greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO 2), methane (CH 4), and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) play an important role in the global GHG budget. However, these GHG fluxes are rarely studied simultaneously, and our understanding of the conditions controlling them across spatial gradients is limited. Here, we explore the magnitudes and drivers of GHG fluxes across fine-scale terrestrial gradients during the peak growing season (July) in sub-Arctic Finland. We measured chamber-derived GHG fluxes and soil temperature, soil moisture, soil organic carbon and nitrogen stocks, soil pH, soil carbon-to-nitrogen (C/N) ratio, soil dissolved organic carbon content, vascular plant biomass, and vegetation type from 101 plots scattered across a heterogeneous tundra landscape (5 km 2). We used these field data together with high-resolution remote sensing data to develop machine learning models for predicting (i.e., upscaling) daytime GHG fluxes across the landscape at 2 m resolution. Our results show that this region was on average a daytime net GHG sink during the growing season. Although our results suggest that this sink was driven by CO 2 uptake, it also revealed small but widespread CH 4 uptake in upland vegetation types, almost surpassing the high wetland CH 4 emissions at the landscape scale. Average N 2 O fluxes were negligible. CO 2 fluxes were controlled primarily by annual average soil temperature and biomass (both increase net sink) and vegetation type, CH 4 fluxes by soil moisture (increases net emissions) and vegetation type, and N 2 O fluxes by soil C/N (lower C/N increases net source). These results demonstrate the potential of high spatial resolution modeling of GHG fluxes in the Arctic. They also reveal the dominant role of CO 2 fluxes across the tundra landscape but suggest that CH 4 uptake in dry upland soils might play a significant role in the regional GHG budget. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term, continuous observations are needed for Earth system investigations and evaluation of simulations. The atmospheric and ecological communities have independently established field sites that have been running for many decades and are integrated into global networks. In the past decade, the importance of long-term observational networks focused on land ecosystem-atmosphere exchange, and the processes controlling land-atmosphere coupling, had been increasingly recognized and has led to the building of a global network of water, carbon and energy flux sites. This is an important step but further enhancements are necessary in order to quantify all of the land-atmosphere processes that need to be included in Earth system models. This paper describes the current land ecosystem-atmosphere measurement capabilities and presents the status and needs for global observational networks.

The processes responsible for methane (CH4) emissions from boreal wetlands are complex, and hence their model representation is complicated by a large number of parameters and parameter uncertainties. The arctic-enabled dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS is one such model that allows quantification and understanding of the natural wetland CH4 fluxes at various scales ranging from local to regional and global, but with several uncertainties. The model contains detailed descriptions of CH4 production, oxidation, and transport controlled by several process parameters. Complexities in the underlying environmental processes, warming-driven alternative paths of meteorological phenomena, and changes in hydrological and vegetation conditions are highlight the need for a calibrated and optimised version of LPJGUESS. In this study we formulated the parameter calibration as a Bayesian problem, using knowledge of reasonable parameters values as priors. We then used an adaptive Metropolis Hastings (MH) based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to improve predictions of CH4 emission by LPJ-GUESS and to quantify uncertainties. Application of this method on uncertain parameters allows greater search of their posterior distribution, leading to a more complete characterisation of the posterior distribution with reduced risk of sample impoverishment that can occur when using other optimisation methods. For assimilation, the analysis used flux measurement data gathered during the period 2005 to 2014 from the Siikaneva wetlands in southern Finland with an estimation of measurement uncertainties. The data are used to constrain the processes behind the CH4 dynamics, and the posterior covariance structures are used to explain how the parameters and the processes are related. To further support the conclusions, the CH4 flux and the other component fluxes associated with the flux are examined. The results demonstrate the robustness of MCMC methods to quantitatively assess the interrelationship between objective function choices, parameter identifiability, and data support. As a part of this work, knowledge about how the CH4 data can constrain the parameters and processes is derived. Though the optimisation is performed based on a single site's flux data from Siikaneva, the algorithm is useful for larger-scale multi-site studies for more robust calibration of LPJ-GUESS and similar models, and the results can highlight where model improvements are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic terrestrial greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) play an important role in the global GHG budget. However, these GHG fluxes are rarely studied simultaneously, and our understanding of the conditions controlling them across spatial gradients is limited. Here, we explore the magnitudes and drivers of GHG fluxes across fine-scale terrestrial gradients during the peak growing season (July) in sub-Arctic Finland. We measured chamber-derived GHG fluxes and soil temperature, soil moisture, soil organic carbon and nitrogen stocks, soil pH, soil carbon-to-nitrogen (C/N) ratio, soil dissolved organic carbon content, vascular plant biomass, and vegetation type from 101 plots scattered across a heterogeneous tundra landscape (5 km²). We used these field data together with high-resolution remote sensing data to develop machine learning models to predict (i.e., upscale) daytime GHG fluxes across the landscape at 2-m resolution. Our results show that this region was on average a daytime net GHG sink during the growing season. Although our results suggest that this sink was driven by CO2 uptake, it also revealed small but widespread CH4 uptake in upland vegetation types, shifting this region to an average net CH4 sink at the landscape scale during growing season, despite the presence of high-emitting wetlands. Average N2O fluxes were negligible. CO2 fluxes were controlled primarily by annual average soil temperature and biomass (both increase net sink) and vegetation type, CH4 fluxes by soil moisture (increases net emissions) and vegetation type, and N2O fluxes by soil C/N (lower C/N increases net source). These results demonstrate the potential of high spatial resolution modelling of GHG fluxes in the Arctic. They also reveal the dominant role of CO2 fluxes across the tundra landscape, but suggest that CH4 uptake might play a significant role in the regional GHG budget. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Termites play an essential role in decomposing dead plant material in tropical ecosystems and are thus major sources of gaseous C emissions in many environments. In African savannas, fungus-growing termites are among the ecologically most influential termite species. We studied the gas exchange from mounds of two closely related fungus-growing species (Macrotermes subhyalinus and M. michaelseni, respectively) in shaded and open habitats together with soil fluxes around the mounds. The fluxes from active termite mounds varied from 116 to 2105 mg CO2-C m-2 h-1 for CO2 and from 0.06 to 3.66 mg CH4-C m-2 h-1 for CH4 fluxes. Mound CO2 fluxes varied seasonally with a 64 % decrease and 35 % increase in the fluxes from dry to wet season at the open grassland and shaded bushland sites, respectively. During the wet season, the CO2 fluxes were significantly correlated with termite mound volume. The diurnal measurements from two M. michaelseni mounds suggest that the gas fluxes peak during daytime and midnight supporting the previously presented model of thermally driven air circulation inside the mound and possibly enhanced ventilation during the night by the opening of foraging routes. The stability of the mound gas fluxes over diurnal and annual scales coincides with the constant nature of the nest internal gas and thermal environment that guarantees continuously favorable conditions for the fungal symbiont. Soil fluxes of both CO2 and CH4 were enhanced at up to 2 m distance from the mounds compared to the local soil respiration, indicating that, in addition to mound ventilation structures, a small proportion of the produced metabolic gases leave the nest also via surrounding soils. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]