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Purpose Missing data is a key methodological consideration in longitudinal studies of aging. We described missing data challenges and potential methodological solutions using a case example describing five-year frailty state transitions in a cohort of older adults. Methods We used longitudinal data from the National Health and Aging Trends Study, a nationally-representative cohort of Medicare beneficiaries. We assessed the five components of the Fried frailty phenotype and classified frailty based on their number of components (robust: 0, prefrail: 1–2, frail: 3–5). One-, two-, and five-year frailty state transitions were defined as movements between frailty states or death. Missing frailty components were imputed using hot deck imputation. Inverse probability weights were used to account for potentially informative loss-to-follow-up. We conducted scenario analyses to test a range of assumptions related to missing data. Results Missing data were common for frailty components measured using physical assessments (walking speed, grip strength). At five years, 36% of individuals were lost-to-follow-up, differentially with respect to baseline frailty status. Assumptions for missing data mechanisms impacted inference regarding individuals improving or worsening in frailty. Conclusions Missing data and loss-to-follow-up are common in longitudinal studies of aging. Robust epidemiologic methods can improve the rigor and interpretability of aging-related research.

Purpose: We aim to assess the reporting of key patient-level demographic and clinical characteristics among COVID-19 related randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Methods: We queried English-language articles from PubMed, Web of Science, clinicaltrials.gov, and the CDC library of gray literature databases using keywords of “coronavirus,” “covid,” “clinical trial” and “randomized controlled trial” from January 2020 to June 2021. From the search, we conducted an initial review to rule-out duplicate entries, identify those that met inclusion criteria (i.e., had results), and exclude those that did not meet the definition of an RCT. Lastly, we abstracted the demographic and clinical characteristics reported on within each RCT. Results: From the initial 43 627 manuscripts, our final eligible manuscripts consisted of 149 RCTs described in 137 articles. Most of the RCTs (113/149) studied potential treatments, while fewer studied vaccines (29), prophylaxis strategies (5), and interventions to prevent transmission among those infected (2). Study populations ranged from 10 to 38 206 participants (median = 100, IQR: 60–300). All 149 RCTs reported on age, 147 on sex, 50 on race, and 110 on the prevalence of at least one comorbidity. No RCTs reported on income, urban versus rural residence, or other indicators of socioeconomic status (SES). Conclusions: Limited reporting on race and other markers of SES make it difficult to draw conclusions about specific external target populations without making strong assumptions that treatment effects are homogenous. These findings highlight the need for more robust reporting on the clinical and demographic profiles of patients enrolled in COVID-19 related RCTs.

Background While vaccination is the most important way to combat the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, there may still be a need for early outpatient treatment that is safe, inexpensive, and currently widely available in parts of the world that do not have access to the vaccine. There are in-silico, in-vitro, and in-tissue data suggesting that metformin inhibits the viral life cycle, as well as observational data suggesting that metformin use before infection with SARS-CoV2 is associated with less severe COVID-19. Previous observational analyses from single-center cohorts have been limited by size. Methods Conducted a retrospective cohort analysis in adults with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) for associations between metformin use and COVID-19 outcomes with an active comparator design of prevalent users of therapeutically equivalent diabetes monotherapy: metformin versus dipeptidyl-peptidase-4-inhibitors (DPP4i) and sulfonylureas (SU). This took place in the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) longitudinal U.S. cohort of adults with +SARS-CoV-2 result between January 1 2020 to June 1 2021. Findings included hospitalization or ventilation or mortality from COVID-19. Back pain was assessed as a negative control outcome. Results 6,626 adults with T2DM and +SARS-CoV-2 from 36 sites. Mean age was 60.7 +/- 12.0 years; 48.7% male; 56.7% White, 21.9% Black, 3.5% Asian, and 16.7% Latinx. Mean BMI was 34.1 +/- 7.8kg/m2. Overall 14.5% of the sample was hospitalized; 1.5% received mechanical ventilation; and 1.8% died. In adjusted outcomes, compared to DPP4i, metformin had non-significant associations with reduced need for ventilation (RR 0.68, 0.32–1.44), and mortality (RR 0.82, 0.41–1.64). Compared to SU, metformin was associated with a lower risk of ventilation (RR 0.5, 95% CI 0.28–0.98, p = 0.044) and mortality (RR 0.56, 95% CI 0.33–0.97, p = 0.037). There was no difference in unadjusted or adjusted results of the negative control. Conclusions There were clinically significant associations between metformin use and less severe COVID-19 compared to SU, but not compared to DPP4i. New-user studies and randomized trials are needed to assess early outpatient treatment and post-exposure prophylaxis with therapeutics that are safe in adults, children, pregnancy and available worldwide.

OBJECTIVE Using the 2016 Medicare Part D coverage gap as an example, we explored effects of increased out-of-pocket costs on adherence to branded dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors (DPP-4i) in patients without financial subsidies relative to subsidized patients who do not experience increased spending during the gap. We also explored seasonality of reinitiation, because discontinuers may be more likely to reinitiate in January when benefits reset. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We identified DPP-4i or sulfonylurea initiators, aged ‡66 years, from a 20% sample of 2015–2016 Medicare claims. Difference-in-differences Poisson regression was used to compare adherence before and after entering the coverage gap between nonsubsidizedand subsidized patients.Among discontinuers, monthly hazardratios (HRs) for reinitiation relative to January 2016 were derived with Cox models. As a second control, we repeated analyses using sulfonylureas, generic low-cost alternatives. RESULTS In 2016, 8,096 subsidized and 6,173 nonsubsidized DPP-4i initiators entered the coverage gap. For nonsubsidized patients, copayment in the coverage gap was 45% ($227 per DPP-4i prescription), and adherence decreased from 68.4% to 49.0% after gap entry. Accounting for adherence differences in subsidized patients, nonsubsidized patients demonstrated reduced adherence to DPP-4i (differencein-difference: 216.9%; 95% CI 218.7%, 215.1%) but not sulfonylureas (21.6%; 95% CI 23.4%, 0.2%). Reinitiation was lowest in the months before January (HR 0.4–0.5) among nonsubsidized DPP-4i patients, demonstrating a strong seasonal pattern. CONCLUSIONS Increased out-of-pocket costs negatively affect adherence and reinitiation of branded antihyperglycemic drugs among patients without financial subsidies. Despite closure of the coverage gap, affordability remains a concern given increasing list prices for many drugs on Medicare and the growing use of deductibles and coinsurance by commercial health plans.

Aims: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) accelerates progression of chronic liver disease to cirrhosis, yet the effects of most glucose-lowering drugs (GLDs) on cirrhosis risk in T2D are unknown. To address this gap, we compared cirrhosis risk following initiation of newer second-line GLDs vs. thiazolidinediones (TZDs), which improve histology in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Materials and methods: Using the US Medicare Fee-for-Service database (2007–2015) and an active comparator, new-user design, we estimated crude incidence rates (IRs) and propensity-score adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for incident cirrhosis, comparing newer GLDs (dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i), glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP1RA), and sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i)) vs. TZDs. Results: Among 239,549 total initiators, we observed 318, 151, and < 30 cirrhosis events when comparing DPP4i vs. TZD, GLP1RA vs. TZD, and SGLT2i vs. TZD, respectively. IRs ranged from 1.7 [95% CI, 0.8–3.6] to 3.6 [2.5–5.2] events per 1000 person-years. Point aHR estimates for cirrhosis were elevated among newer GLD initiators vs. TZD (DPP4i: 1.15 [0.89–1.50]; GLP1RA: 1.34 [0.82–2.20]; SGLT2i: 1.16, [0.44–3.08]), although estimates were imprecise due to short durations of drug exposure. Conclusions: We observed mildly elevated cirrhosis risk with newer GLDs vs. TZD; however, uncertainty remains due to imprecise and statistically non-significant effect estimates.

Background Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) have been associated with increased occurrence of Fournier's gangrene (FG), a rare but serious form of necrotizing fasciitis, leading to a warning from the Food and Drug Administration. Real-world evidence on FG is needed to validate this warning. Methods We used data from IBM MarketScan (2013-2017) to compare the incidence of FG among adult patients who initiated either SGLT2i, a dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor (DPP4i), or any non-SGLT2i antihyperglycemic medication. FG was defined using inpatient International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Edition and Tenth Edition diagnosis codes 608.83 and N49.3, respectively, combined with procedure codes for debridement, surgery, or systemic antibiotics. We estimated crude incidence rates (IRs) using Poisson regression, and crude and adjusted HRs (aHR) and 95% CIs using standardized mortality ratio-weighted Cox proportional hazards models. Sensitivity analyses examined the impact of alternative outcome definitions. Results We identified 211 671 initiators of SGLT2i (n=93 197) and DPP4i (n=118 474), and 305 329 initiators of SGLT2i (n=32 868) and non-SGLT2i (n=272 461). Crude FG IR ranged from 3.2 to 3.8 cases per 100 000 person-years during a median follow-up of 0.51-0.58 years. Compared with DPP4i, SGLT2i initiation was not associated with increased risk of FG for any outcome definition, with aHR estimates ranging from 0.25 (0.04-1.74) to 1.14 (0.86-1.51). In the non-SGLT2i comparison, we observed an increased risk of FG for SGLT2i initiators when using FG diagnosis codes alone, using all diagnosis settings (aHR 1.80; 0.53-6.11) and inpatient diagnoses only (aHR 4.58; 0.99-21.21). Conclusions No evidence of increased risk of FG associated with SGLT2i was observed compared with DPP4i, arguably the most relevant clinical comparison. However, uncertainty remains based on potentially higher risk in the broader comparison with all non-SGLT2i antihyperglycemic agents and the rarity of FG. Trial registration number EUPAS Register Number 30018.

Much has been written about real-world evidence (RWE), a concept that offers an understanding of the effects of healthcare interventions using routine clinical data. The reflection of diverse real-world practices is a double-edged sword that makes RWE attractive but also opens doors to several biases that need to be minimised both in the design and analytical phases of non-experimental studies. Additionally, it is critical to ensure that researchers who conduct these studies possess adequate methodological expertise and ability to accurately implement these methods. Critical design elements to be considered should include a clearly defined research question using a causal inference framework, choice of a fit-for-purpose data source, inclusion of new users of a treatment with comparators that are as similar as possible to that group, accurately classifying person-time and deciding censoring approaches. Having taken measures to minimise bias ‘by design’, the next step is to implement appropriate analytical techniques (for example propensity scores) to minimise the remnant potential biases. A clear protocol should be provided at the beginning of the study and a report of the results after, including caveats to consider. We also point the readers to readings on some novel analytical methods as well as newer areas of application of RWE. While there is no one-size-fits-all solution to evaluating RWE studies, we have focused our discussion on key methods and issues commonly encountered in comparative observational cohort studies with the hope that readers are better equipped to evaluate non-experimental studies that they encounter in the future.

Background and objectives Intravenous iron therapy for chronic anemia management is largely driven by dosing protocols that differ in intensity with respect to dosing approach (i.e., dose, frequency, and duration). Little is known about the safety of these protocols. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Using clinical data from a large United States dialysis provider linked to health care utilization data from Medicare, we constructed a cohort of patients with ESKD aged ≥65 years who initiated and continued center-based hemodialysis for ≥90 days between 2009 and 2012, and initiated at least one of the five common intravenous iron administration strategies; ranked by intensity (the amount of iron given at moderate-to-high iron indices), the order of strategies was 3 (least intensive), 2 (less intensive), 1 (reference), 4 (more intensive), and 5 (most intensive). We estimated the effect of continuous exposure to these strategies on cumulative risks of mortality and infection-related events with dynamic Cox marginal structural models. Results Of 13,249 eligible patients, 1320 (10%) died and 1627 (12%) had one or more infection-related events during the 4-month follow-up. The most and least commonly initiated strategy was strategy 2 and 5, respectively. Compared with the reference strategy 1, more intensive strategies (4 and 5) demonstrated a higher risk of all-cause mortality (e.g., most intensive strategy 5: 60-day risk difference: 1.3%; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.8% to 2.1%; 120-day risk difference: 3.1%; 95% CI, 1.0% to 5.6%). Similarly, higher risks were observed for infection-related morbidity and mortality among more intensive strategies (e.g., strategy 5: 60-day risk difference: 1.8%; 95% CI, 1.2% to 2.6%; 120-day risk difference: 4.3%; 95% CI, 2.2% to 6.8%). Less intensive strategies (2 and 3) demonstrated lower risks of all-cause mortality and infection-related events. Conclusions Among dialysis patients surviving 90 days, subsequent intravenous iron administration strategies promoting more intensive iron treatment at moderate-to-high iron indices levels are associated with higher risks of mortality and infection-related events.

Aim: To examine whether sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors are associated with a higher risk of lower-extremity amputation than dipeptidyl-peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors and sulphonylureas. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study, using the MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters Database (2013-2015), to compare the incidence of lower-extremity amputation (LEA) between initiators of SGLT2 inhibitors and initiators of two second-line drugs, DPP-4 inhibitors and sulphonylureas (SUs). We estimated crude incidence rates (IRs) and adjusted hazard ratios (aHR), with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), before and after propensity-score weighting. We additionally conducted sensitivity analyses using a comparator group of all non-metformin, non-SGLT2 inhibitor glucose-lowering drugs, as previous studies used this approach. Results: In a cohort of 328 150 individuals aged 18 to 64 years, the IR of LEA ranged from 1.5 to 2.4 per 1000 person-years. In as-treated analysis, the estimated hazard of LEA was increased among SGLT2 inhibitor initiators compared to DPP-4 inhibitor initiators (aHR 1.69, 95% CI 1.20-2.38), but not compared to SU initiators (aHR 1.02, 95% CI 0.67-1.55) or non-metformin, non-SGLT2 inhibitor initiators (aHR 1.02, 95% CI 0.54-1.93). Results were consistent in intention-to-treat analysis and across a number of sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: Among commercially insured patients in the United States, our results suggest that initiation of SGLT2 inhibitors may increase the risk of LEA compared to initiation of DPP-4 inhibitors. Contrasting results when comparing SGLT2 inhibitor initiators to DPP-4 inhibitor and SU initiators highlight the importance of choosing appropriate comparator drugs when addressing comparative effectiveness and safety questions that can inform clinical decision-making.

Final Report - Directorate-General for Research and Innovation (European Commission), Most iron ore sinter plants use permeability bars to raise productivity. This project investigated their influences on the process by laboratory and operational trials and special measurements of local profiles. A new transient 2D model basing on Comsol Multiphysics was developed which is able to describe the differences across bed height and width. General knowledge and recommendations were derived. The permeability bars were proven to raise the cold permeability to some extent but even more effective is the folding of the burn-through profile across the strand width. The bars raise the cold permeability just locally with a width of a few centimeters beyond the bars in similar fashion even for very different sinter mixes. The influences of horizontal and vertical bars interact and may cause detrimental effects if not properly tuned. Vertical bars had the best effect when mounted inclined, raising in direction of the strand movement. With optimum bar configuration the sinter speed can be raised by up to 40%. High sinter speed demands higher coke rate to retain the time-temperature profiles during sintering. Since even properly designed bars increase the local inhomogeneities, the average sinter strength usually decreases slightly. Optimum results were obtained either with two stacked rows of horizontal bars with approximately 20cm spacing or with a combination of vertical bars with 30-40cm spacing and horizontal bars in-between. The bar design can be optimized basing on a statistic analysis of the thermal profiles at discharge supported by calculations with the new 2D model.

Aims: To examine the outcomes of dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitor initiation with and without concurrent metformin treatment. Materials and methods: We identified Medicare enrollees initiating a DPP-4 inhibitor, a sulphonylurea or a thiazolidinedione. Using propensity-score-weighted Poisson models, we evaluated 1-year cardiovascular (CV) outcome incidence among initiators of DPP-4 inhibitors versus comparators in subgroups with and without concurrent metformin use, and assessed the interaction between initiation drug and metformin. Outcomes included mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and a composite outcome. Results: For the DPP-4 inhibitor (n = 13 391) versus sulphonylurea (n = 33 206) comparison, rate differences in composite outcome incidence favoured DPP-4 inhibitors: −2.0/100 person-years among metformin users (95% confidence interval [CI] −2.7 to −1.3) and − 1.0/100 person-years (95% CI −1.8 to −0.2) among metformin non-users. Similar rate difference trends among metformin users and non-users were seen for mortality (−1.5/100 person-years [95% CI −2.1 to −0.9] and −0.7/100 person-years [95% CI −1.4 to 0.0]) and non-fatal MI (−0.5/100 person-years [95% CI −0.8, −0.3] and 0.1/100 person-years [95% CI −0.2 to 0.4]). The interaction between DPP-4 inhibitor initiation and metformin was statistically significant for non-fatal MI (P = 0.008). For the DPP-4 inhibitor (n = 22 210) versus thiazolidinedione (n = 9517) comparison, rate differences in composite outcome incidence for DPP-4 inhibitor initiation were −0.6/100 person-years (95% CI −1.5 to 0.2) among metformin users and 1.0 (95% CI 0.0 to 2.0) among metformin non-users. Similar rate difference trends among metformin users and non-users were seen for mortality (−0.5/100 person-years [95% CI −1.3 to 0.1] and 0.8/100 person-years [95% CI −0.0 to 1.7]) and non-fatal MI (−0.1/100 person-years [95% CI −0.4 to 0.2] and 0.2/100 person-years [95% CI −0.1 to 0.6]). The interaction between DPP-4 inhibitor initiation and metformin was statistically significant for the composite outcome (P = 0.024) and mortality (P = 0.023). Conclusion: Incidence rate differences in multiple CV outcomes appeared more favourable when DPP-4 inhibitor initiation occurred in the presence of metformin, suggesting a possible interaction between DPP-4 inhibitors and metformin.

Aim: The aim of the study was to empirically demonstrate the effect of varying study designs when evaluating the safety of pioglitazone in treating bladder cancer. Methods: We identified Medicare beneficiaries above 65 years of age with diabetes between 2008 and 2015 and with classified exposure (at least two claims within 180 days) to glucose-lowering drugs (GLD), pioglitazone or another drug. The effects of varying the following study design parameters on bladder cancer risk were assessed: use of a new vs existing drug, choice of referent (all non-users and users of GLDs, non-insulin GLDs and DPP-4s) and whether or not censoring accounted for treatment change. We used the Cox proportional hazards model to obtain adjusted HRs and 95% CIs. Results: We included 1,510,212 patients classified as pioglitazone users (N = 135,188) or non-users (N = 1,375,024). Users had more diabetic complications than non-users, but fewer than insulin users. The HR ranged from 1.10 (1.01-1.20) to 1.13 (0.99-1.29) when censoring ignored treatment change, suggesting a weak association or none between pioglitazone and bladder cancer, probably under-estimating risk. However, the HR was 1.20 (1.01-1.42) when cohorts were restricted to new users, censored upon treatment change, and when DPP-4 was used as the referent, suggesting an increased risk of bladder cancer associated with pioglitazone. Conclusions: The continued demand for new GLDs indicates the need for more robust observational methods to improve the value of generating real-world evidence in equipping clinicians to make informed prescribing decisions. Although there is no one-size-fits-all approach, we recommend active comparator new user study designs that compare therapeutically equivalent drugs and account for treatment changes during follow-up to present the least biased comparative safety estimates.