Search

Laser-scanned point clouds of forests make it possible to extract valuable information for forest management. To consider single trees, a forest point cloud needs to be segmented into individual tree point clouds. Existing segmentation methods are usually based on hand-crafted algorithms, such as identifying trunks and growing trees from them, and face difficulties in dense forests with overlapping tree crowns. In this study, we propose TreeLearn, a deep learning-based approach for tree instance segmentation of forest point clouds. TreeLearn is trained on already segmented point clouds in a data-driven manner, making it less reliant on predefined features and algorithms. Furthermore, TreeLearn is implemented as a fully automatic pipeline and does not rely on extensive hyperparameter tuning, which makes it easy to use. Additionally, we introduce a new manually segmented benchmark forest dataset containing 156 full trees. The data is generated by mobile laser scanning and contributes to create a larger and more diverse data basis for model development and fine-grained instance segmentation evaluation. We trained TreeLearn on forest point clouds of 6665 trees, labeled using the Lidar360 software. An evaluation on the benchmark dataset shows that TreeLearn performs as well as the algorithm used to generate its training data. Furthermore, the performance can be vastly improved by fine-tuning the model using manually annotated datasets. We evaluate TreeLearn on our benchmark dataset and the Wytham Woods dataset, outperforming the recent SegmentAnyTree, ForAINet and TLS2Trees methods. The TreeLearn code and all datasets that were created in the course of this work are made publicly available.

In this article, a utility function framework is developed, serving to determine the demand for an upcoming demand responsive transportation system. A linear’public-good game’ (PGG) model is modified in a way that maximizing the consumer surplus is assumed to determine individual decision-making. This modification allows for considering the endowment effect in the function, which is expected to enable for a more precise distinction among customer segments. The purpose of this approach is to create a possibility for including descriptive behavioral economic findings in a normative modeling concept. It shall serve as a theoretical basis for coming empirical investigations.

Abstract Background Due to contradictory results in current research, whether age at menopause is increasing or decreasing in Western countries remains an open question, yet worth studying as later ages at menopause are likely to be related to an increased risk of breast cancer. Using data from breast cancer screening programs to study the temporal trend of age at menopause is difficult since especially younger women in the same generational cohort have often not yet reached menopause. Deleting these younger women in a breast cancer risk analyses may bias the results. The aim of this study is therefore to recover missing menopause ages as a covariate by comparing methods for handling missing data. Additionally, the study makes a contribution to understanding the evolution of age at menopause for several generations born in Portugal between 1920 and 1970. Methods Data from a breast cancer screening program in Portugal including 278,282 women aged 45–69 and collected between 1990 and 2010 are used to compare two approaches of imputing age at menopause: (i) a multiple imputation methodology based on a truncated distribution but ignoring the mechanism of missingness; (ii) a copula-based multiple imputation method that simultaneously handles the age at menopause and the missing mechanism. The linear predictors considered in both cases have a semiparametric additive structure accommodating linear and non-linear effects defined via splines or Markov random fields smoothers in the case of spatial variables. Results Both imputation methods unveiled an increasing trend of age at menopause when viewed as a function of the birth year for the youngest generation. This trend is hidden if we model only women with an observed age at menopause. Conclusion When studying age at menopause, missing ages must be recovered with an adequate procedure for incomplete data. Imputing these missing ages avoids excluding the younger generation cohort of the screening program in breast cancer risk analyses and hence reduces the bias stemming from this exclusion. In addition, imputing the not yet observed ages of menopause for mostly younger women is also crucial when studying the time trend of age at menopause otherwise the analysis will be biased.

Mixed models can be considered as a type of penalized regression and are everyday tools in statistical genetics. The standard mixed model for whole genome regression (WGR) is ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction (RRBLUP) which is based on an additive marker effect model. Many publications have extended the additive WGR approach by incorporating interactions between loci or between genes and environment. In this context of penalized regressions with interactions, it has been reported that translating the coding of single nucleotide polymorphisms -for instance from -1,0,1 to 0,1,2- has an impact on the prediction of genetic values and interaction effects. In this work, we identify the reason for the relevance of variable coding in the general context of penalized polynomial regression. We show that in many cases, predictions of the genetic values are not invariant to translations of the variable coding, with an exception when only the sizes of the coefficients of monomials of highest total degree are penalized. The invariance of RRBLUP can be considered as a special case of this setting, with a polynomial of total degree 1, penalizing additive effects (total degree 1) but not the fixed effect (total degree 0). The extended RRBLUP (eRRBLUP), which includes interactions, is not invariant to translations because it does not only penalize interactions (total degree 2), but also additive effects (total degree 1). This observation implies that translation-invariance can be maintained in a pair-wise epistatic WGR if only interaction effects are penalized, but not the additive effects. In this regard, approaches of pre-selecting loci may not only reduce computation time, but can also help to avoid the variable coding issue. To illustrate the practical relevance, we compare different regressions on a publicly available wheat data set. We show that for an eRRBLUP, the relevance of the marker coding for interaction effect estimates increases with the number of variables included in the model. A biological interpretation of estimated interaction effects may therefore become more difficult. Consequently, comparing reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) approaches to WGR approaches modeling effects explicitly, the supposed advantage of an increased interpretability of the latter may not be real. Our theoretical results are generally valid for penalized regressions, for instance also for the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). Moreover, they apply to any type of interaction modeled by products of predictor variables in a penalized regression approach or by Hadamard products of covariance matrices in a mixed model.

Model selection in mixed models based on the conditional distribution is appropriate for many practical applications and has been a focus of recent statistical research. In this paper we introduce the R package cAIC4 that allows for the computation of the conditional Akaike information criterion (cAIC). Computation of the conditional AIC needs to take into account the uncertainty of the random effects variance and is therefore not straightforward. We introduce a fast and stable implementation for the calculation of the cAIC for (generalized) linear mixed models estimated with lme4 and (generalized) additive mixed models estimated with gamm4. Furthermore, cAIC4 offers a stepwise function that allows for an automated stepwise selection scheme for mixed models based on the cAIC. Examples of many possible applications are presented to illustrate the practical impact and easy handling of the package.

Automated species classification from 3D point clouds is still a challenge. It is, however, an important task for laser scanning-based forest inventory, ecosystem models, and to support forest management. Here, we tested the performance of an image classification approach based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with the aim to classify 3D point clouds of seven tree species based on 2D representation in a computationally efficient way. We were particularly interested in how the approach would perform with artificially increased training data size based on image augmentation techniques. Our approach yielded a high classification accuracy (86%) and the confusion matrix revealed that despite rather small sample sizes of the training data for some tree species, classification accuracy was high. We could partly relate this to the successful application of the image augmentation technique, improving our result by 6% in total and 13, 14, and 24% for ash, oak and pine, respectively. The introduced approach is hence not only applicable to small-sized datasets, it is also computationally effective since it relies on 2D instead of 3D data to be processed in the CNN. Our approach was faster and more accurate when compared to the point cloud-based “PointNet” approach.

This paper introduces distributional regression also known as generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) as a modeling framework for analyzing treatment effects beyond the mean. In contrast to mean regression models, GAMLSS relate each distributional parameter to covariates. Therefore, they can be used to model the treatment effect not only on the mean but on the whole conditional distribution. Since they encompass a wide range of different distributions, GAMLSS provide a flexible framework for modeling non-normal outcomes in which additionally nonlinear and spatial effects can easily be incorporated. We elaborate on the combination of GAMLSS with program evaluation methods including randomized controlled trials, panel data techniques, difference in differences, instrumental variables, and regression discontinuity design. We provide practical guidance on the usage of GAMLSS by reanalyzing data from the Mexican Progresa program. Contrary to expectations, no significant effects of a cash transfer on the conditional consumption inequality level between treatment and control group are found.

Oil palm plantations are intensively managed agricultural systems that increasingly dominate certain tropical regions. Oil palm monocultures have been criticized because of their reduced biodiversity compared to the forests they historically replaced, and because of their negative impact on soils, water, and climate. We experimentally test whether less intensive management schemes may enhance biodiversity and lessen detrimental effects on the environment while maintaining high yields. We compare reduced vs. conventional fertilization, as well as mechanical vs. chemical weed control (with herbicides) in a long-term, full-factorial, multidisciplinary experiment. We conducted the experiment in an oil palm company estate in Sumatra, Indonesia, and report the results of the first 2 years. We measured soil nutrients and functions, surveyed above- and below-ground organisms, tracked oil palm condition and productivity, and calculated plantation gross margins. Plants, aboveground arthropods, and belowground animals were positively affected by mechanical vs. chemical weed control, but we could not detect effects on birds and bats. There were no detectable negative effects of reduced fertilization or mechanical weeding on oil palm yields, fine roots, or leaf area index. Also, we could not detect detrimental effects of the reduced fertilization and mechanical weeding on soil nutrients and functions (mineral nitrogen, bulk density, and litter decomposition), but water infiltration and base saturation tended to be higher under mechanical weeding, while soil moisture, and microbial biomass varied with treatment. Economic performance, measured as gross margins, was higher under reduced fertilization. There might be a delayed response of oil palm to the different management schemes applied, so results of future years may confirm whether this is a sustainable management strategy. Nevertheless, the initial effects of the experiment are encouraging to consider less intensive management practices as economically and ecologically viable options for oil palm plantations.

Structured additive regression (STAR) models provide a flexible framework for model- ing possible nonlinear effects of covariates: They contain the well established frameworks of generalized linear models and generalized additive models as special cases but also allow a wider class of effects, e.g., for geographical or spatio-temporal data, allowing for specification of complex and realistic models. BayesX is standalone software package providing software for fitting general class of STAR models. Based on a comprehensive open-source regression toolbox written in C++, BayesX uses Bayesian inference for estimating STAR models based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques, a mixed model representation of STAR models, or stepwise regression techniques combining penalized least squares estimation with model selection. BayesX not only covers models for responses from univariate exponential families, but also models from less-standard regression situations such as models for multi-categorical responses with either ordered or unordered categories, continuous time survival data, or continuous time multi-state models. This paper presents a new fully interactive R interface to BayesX: the R package R2BayesX. With the new package, STAR models can be conveniently specified using Rs formula language (with some extended terms), fitted using the BayesX binary, represented in R with objects of suitable classes, and finally printed/summarized/plotted. This makes BayesX much more accessible to users familiar with R and adds extensive graphics capabilities for visualizing fitted STAR models. Furthermore, R2BayesX complements the already impressive capabilities for semiparametric regression in R by a comprehensive toolbox comprising in particular more complex response types and alternative inferential procedures such as simulation-based Bayesian inference.

In 2011, a large outbreak of entero-hemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC) and hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) occurred in Germany. The City of Hamburg was the first focus of the epidemic and had the highest incidences among all 16 Federal States of Germany. In this article, we present epidemiological characteristics of the Hamburg notification data. Evaluating the epicurves retrospectively, we found that the first epidemiological signal of the outbreak, which was in form of a HUS case cluster, was received by local health authorities when already 99 EHEC and 48 HUS patients had experienced their first symptoms. However, only two EHEC and seven HUS patients had been notified. Middle-aged women had the highest risk for contracting the infection in Hamburg. Furthermore, we studied timeliness of case notification in the course of the outbreak. To analyze the spatial distribution of EHEC/HUS incidences in 100 districts of Hamburg, we mapped cases' residential addresses using geographic information software. We then conducted an ecological study in order to find a statistical model identifying associations between local socio-economic factors and EHEC/HUS incidences in the epidemic. We employed a Bayesian Poisson model with covariates characterizing the Hamburg districts as well as incorporating structured and unstructured spatial effects. The Deviance Information Criterion was used for stepwise variable selection. We applied different modeling approaches by using primary data, transformed data, and preselected subsets of transformed data in order to identify socio-economic factors characterizing districts where EHEC/HUS outbreak cases had their residence.

There has been much recent interest in Bayesian inference for generalized additive and related models. The increasing popularity of Bayesian methods for these and other model classes is mainly caused by the introduction of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation techniques which allow realistic modeling of complex problems. This paper describes the capabilities of the free software package BayesX for estimating regression models with structured additive predictor based on MCMC inference. The program extends the capabilities of existing software for semiparametric regression included in S-PLUS, SAS, R or Stata. Many model classes well known from the literature are special cases of the models supported by BayesX. Examples are generalized additive (mixed) models, dynamic models, varying coefficient models, geoadditive models, geographically weighted regression and models for space-time regression. BayesX supports the most common distributions for the response variable. For univariate responses these are Gaussian, Binomial, Poisson, Gamma, negative Binomial, zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial. For multicategorical responses, both multinomial logit and probit models for unordered categories of the response as well as cumulative threshold models for ordered categories can be estimated. Moreover, BayesX allows the estimation of complex continuous time survival and hazard rate models.

The third special volume in the "Foometrics in R" series of the Journal of Statistical Software collects a number of contributions describing statistical methodology and corresponding implementations related to ecology and ecological modelling. The scope of the papers ranges from theoretical ecology and ecological modelling to statistical methodology relevant for data analyses in ecological applications.