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Background: Our current understanding of demographic and clinical modifiers of the effectiveness of multiple sclerosis (MS) therapies is limited. Objective(s): To assess whether patients' response to disease modifying therapies (DMT) in MS varies by disease activity (annualised relapse rate, presence of new MRI lesions), disability, age, MS duration or disease phenotype. Method(s): Using the international MSBase registry, we selected patients with MS followed for >=1 year, with >=3 visits, >=1 visit per year. Marginal structural models (MSMs) were used to compare the hazard ratios (HR) of 6-month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability (EDSS), and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated periods. MSMs were continuously re-adjusted for patient age, sex, pregnancy, date, time from first symptom, prior relapse history, disability and MRI activity. Result(s): Among 23 687 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMT experienced 20% greater chance of disability improvement [HR 1.20 (95% CI 1.0-1.5)], 47% lower risk of disability worsening [HR 0.53 (0.39-0.71)] and 51% reduction in relapses [HR 0.49 (0.43-0.55)]. The effect of DMT on relapses and EDSS worsening was attenuated with longer MS duration and higher prior relapse rate. The effect of DMT on EDSS improvement and relapses was more evident in low EDSS categories. DMT was associated with 51% EDSS improvement in patients without new MRI lesions [HR 1.51 (1.00-2.28)] compared to 4% in those with MRI activity [HR 1.04 (0.88-1.24)]. Among 26329 participants with relapsing or progressive MS, DMT was associated with 25% reduction in EDSS worsening and 42% reduction in relapses in patients with relapsing MS [HR 0.75 (0.65-0.86) and HR 0.58 (CI 0.54-62), respectively], while evidence for such beneficial effects of treatment in patients with progressive MS was not found [HR 1.11 (0.91-1.46) and HR 1.16 (0.91-1.46), respectively]. Conclusion(s): DMTs are associated with reduction in relapse frequency, pro

Objective: To assess whether patients' response to disease modifying therapies (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS) varies by disease activity (annualised relapse rate, presence of new MRI lesions), disability, age, MS duration or disease phenotype. Background(s): Our understanding of demographic and clinical modifiers of the effectiveness of MS therapies is limited. Design/Methods: Using the international MSBase registry, we selected patients with MS followed for >=1 year, with >=3 visits, >=1 visit per year. Marginal structural models were used to compare the hazard ratios (HR) of 6-month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability (EDSS), and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated periods. Models were continuously re-adjusted for patient age, sex, pregnancy, date, time from first symptom, prior relapse history, disability and MRI activity. Result(s): Among 23687 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMTs experienced 48% reduction in relapse incidence [HR=0.52 (0.44-0.61)], 48% lower risk of disability worsening [HR=0.52 (0.38-0.71)] and 33% greater chance of disability improvement [HR=1.33 (95%CI 1.0-1.5)]. The effect of DMTs on EDSS worsening and improvement and the risk of relapses was attenuated with more severe disability. The effect of DMTs on reducing relapses declined with higher prior relapse rate and in patients with prior cerebral MRI activity. Among 26329 participants with relapsing or progressive MS, DMTs were associated with 25% reduction in EDSS worsening and 42% reduction in relapses in patients with relapsing MS [HR=0.75 (0.65-0.86) and HR=0.58 (0.54-62), respectively], while evidence for such beneficial effects of treatment in patients with progressive MS was not found [HR=1.11 (0.91-1.46) and HR=1.16 (0.91-1.46), respectively]. Conclusion(s): DMTs are associated with reduction in relapse frequency, progression of disability, and increased chance of recovery from disability. The DMTs are most effective among patients with lower

Background: Some cohort studies have reported similar onset age and disability accrual in primary and secondary progressive MS (PPMS, SPMS); others have reported later onset and faster disability accrual in SPMS. Comparisons are complicated by differences in baseline disability and exposure to disease-modifying therapies (DMT), and by lack of a standardized definition of SPMS. Objective(s): We compared hazards of disability accrual in PPMS and SPMS patients from the MSBase cohort using multivariable Cox models, applying validated diagnostic criteria for SPMS (Lorscheider et al., Brain 2016). Method(s): Inclusion required adult-onset progressive MS; >= 3 recorded Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores; and, for SPMS, initial records with EDSS <= 3 to allow objective identification of SPMS conversion. Phenotypes were subgrouped as active (PPMS-A, SPMS-A) if >= 1 progressive-phase relapse was recorded, and inactive (PPMS-N, SPMS-N) otherwise. Disability accrual was defined by sustained EDSS increases confirmed over >= 6 months. Hazard ratios (HR) for disability accrual were obtained using Andersen-Gill Cox models, adjusted for sex and time-varying age, disability, visit frequency, and proportion of time on DMT or immunosuppressive therapy. Sensitivity analyses were performed using (1) PPMS and SPMS diagnosed since 1995, and (2) physician-diagnosed SPMS. Cumulative probability of reaching EDSS >= 7 (wheelchair required) was assessed (Kaplan-Meier). Result(s): 5461 patients were included (1257 PPMS-N; 1308 PPMS-A; 1731 SPMS-N; 1165 SPMS-A). Age at progression onset was older in SPMS than PPMS (47.2 +/- 10.2, vs. 41.5 +/- 10.7 [mean +/- SD]), and in the inactive subgroups of each phenotype. Hazard of disability accrual was decreased in SPMS relative to PPMS (HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.78-0.92); decreased by proportion of time on DMT (HR 0.99 per 10% increment; 0.98-0.99); and higher in males (1.18; 1.12-1.25). Relative to PPMS-N, hazard was decreased in SPMS-A (0.79; 0.71

Objective: Using global MSBase registry, this study establishes 6-month confirmed disability progression events as indicators of long-term disability worsening suitable for use in randomized clinical trials in multiple sclerosis (MS). Background(s): Randomized clinical trials evaluate short-term treatment effect on disability in the form of 3-6-month confirmed disability progression, but whether these translate into long-term disability outcomes is unknown. Design/Methods: A Cox proportional hazards model identified associations between patients' demographic and clinical characteristics and the probability of recovery from disability progression events. The coefficients from this model were used to calculate a sustained progression score, which was evaluated in a validation cohort and applied to a trial cohort. Result(s): 902 patients (development cohort), patient characteristics at the time of progression associated with lower probability of subsequent improvement were age (hazard ratio (HR)=0.98), primary progressive (HR=0.37) and progressive-relapsing (HR=0.36) MS, expanded disability status scale score >=6 (HR=0.71) and its change from baseline (HR=0.67), number of affected functional system scores (HR=0.92) and pyramidal (HR=0.79) functional system score (p<0.05). The strength of the association with pyramidal score decreased with time (HR=1.01). A relapse within previous month (HR=1.46) and worsening in sensory functional system score (HR=1.17) were associated with higher probability of improvement after progression. The sustained progression score (range 0.39-4.79) in the validation cohort with 1,271 progression events, estimated a 53% lower chance of improvement for each unit increase in the score (HR=0.47). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 68%, 2: 79%, 3: 94%, 4: 100%. The progression scores were then applied to the CLARITY trial data. Conclusion(s): Estimate of the probability of disability progress

Introduction: Prevention of disability over the long-term is currently the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS). Randomized clinical trials evaluate short-term treatment effect on disability in the form of 3-6-month confirmed disability progression. Using global MSBase registry, this study establishes 6-month confirmed disability progression events as indicators of long-term disability worsening suitable for use in randomized clinical trials. Method(s): A Cox proportional hazards model in the development cohort identified associations between demographic and clinical variables at the time of disability progression and the probability of an event not being sustained in the future. The coefficients from this model were used to calculate a sustained progression score. Its association with the risk that an event will be sustained over timewas evaluated with a Cox model in the validation cohort. Result(s): 11,435 confirmed progression events identified in 6,902 patients constituted the development cohort. Patient characteristics at the time of progression associated with lower probability of subsequent improvement were age (hazard ratio (HR)=0.98), primary progressive (HR=0.37) and progressive-relapsing (HR=0.36) MS, expanded disability status scale score >=6 (HR=0.71) and its change from baseline (HR=0.67), number of affected functional system scores (HR=0.92) and pyramidal(HR=0.79) functional system score (p< 0.05). The strength of the association with pyramidal score decreased with time(HR=1.01). Occurrence of a relapse within previous month (HR=1.46) and worsening in sensory functional system score (HR=1.17) were associated with higher probability of improvement after progression. The associations were confirmed by two sensitivity analyses. The sustained progression score, ranged 0.39-4.79 in the validation cohort with 1,271 progression events, estimated a 53% lower chance of improvement with each unit increase in the score (HR=0.47, 95% confidence interval

A. Background and Goals: It is now well known that patient medical history (or trajectories) is of crucial importance for both prognosis and optimal treatment selection for Multiple Sclerosis (MS) patients. This longitudinal data is nowadays being collected more systematically and its availability in patient registries opens the way towards precision medicine in MS. However, this information is very challenging to process computationally. By their observational nature, longitudinal patient data are scarcely and irregularly observed (i.e. only few observations are scattered over the whole patient history). Several works have recently attempted to address this issue by substituting full patient history with summary statistics in the modelling (i.e. using metrics such as the maximum and minimum disability score over the patient history as a proxy for the full medical trajectory). This strategy potentially discards relevant prognostic information. In this work, we present a method capable of handling the full information about disease history and its value for individual prognostic modelling. B. Method(s): We propose a novel statistical method relying on state-of-the-art machine learning models (Bayesian Probabilistic Tensor Factorisation, BPTF). Due to its generative nature, this method is able to process the full MS patient trajectories as input to deliver predictions. We infer the tensor decomposition (rank 70) with Gibbs sampling. To illustrate the performances of our approach, we consider the challenging task of predicting patient worsening within 2 years from current visit using 3 years clinical history. Patient worsening was defined with the 2 strata definition of disability progression as in Kalincik et al. (Brain, 2015). Available longitudinal data include Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), magnetic resonance imaging and relapses. Patient static covariates include, among others, age at onset, gender, disease course and first observed EDSS. C. Result(s): W

Introduction: A decision to discontinue MS immunotherapies is common in clinical practice - whether in order to switch to another therapy or at an advanced stage of progressive MS without relapses. The evidence regarding individual risk of MS re-activation after treatment discontinuation is limited. Aim(s): To evaluate associations of demographic and clinical patient characteristics with the risk of relapses after discontinuing treatment. Both overall and treatment-specific associations are explored. Method(s): Using the global MSBase registry, we identified all patients who discontinued MS immunotherapy after >=3 months on treatment, with the recorded disability score (EDSS) at the time of discontinuing treatment, and prospectively recorded follow-up of >=6 months. The probability of experiencing a relapse after discontinuing treatment, conditional on patient characteristics, was analysed with Cox proportional hazards model. Differences in these associations among different therapies were studied with interaction terms. Result(s): 24,989 episodes of treatment discontinuation were recorded from 17,871 patients (74% female, mean age at discontinuation 39 years, 88% relapsing-remitting MS, mean MS duration 10 years, median EDSS 2.5). The patient characteristics associated with a lower hazard of MS re-activation were male sex (b=0.87, p< 0.001), older age (b=0.98, p< 0.001), MS duration (b=1.01, p< 0.001), secondary progressive MS (b=0.73, p< 0.001), longer treatment duration (0.95, p< 0.001), greater number of prior treatments (1: b=0.62, p< 0.001; >=2: b=0.39, p< 0.001) and greater number of relapses during the previous year (1: b=1.30, p< 0.001; >=2: b=1.62, p< 0.001). The characteristics associated with a greater risk of MS re-activation were clinically isolated syndrome (b=1.87, p< 0.001) and greater EDSS (4-5.5: b=1.41, p< 0.001; >=6: b=1.17, p=0.001). Therapies used more recently (dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, natalizumab) tended to be associated with a lower h

BACKGROUND: Several natural history studies on primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) patients detected a consistent heterogeneity in the rate of disability accumulation. OBJECTIVES: To identify subgroups of PPMS patients with similar longitudinal trajectories of Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) over time. METHODS: All PPMS patients collected within the MSBase registry, who had their first EDSS assessment within 5 years from onset, were included in the analysis. Longitudinal EDSS scores were modeled by a latent class mixed model (LCMM), using a nonlinear function of time from onset. LCMM is an advanced statistical approach that models heterogeneity between patients by classifying them into unobserved groups showing similar characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 853 PPMS (51.7% females) from 24 countries with a mean age at onset of 42.4 years (standard deviation (SD): 10.8 years), a median baseline EDSS of 4 (interquartile range (IQR): 2.5-5.5), and 2.4 years of disease duration (SD: 1.5 years) were included. LCMM detected three different subgroups of patients with a mild ( n = 143; 16.8%), moderate ( n = 378; 44.3%), or severe ( n = 332; 38.9%) disability trajectory. The probability of reaching EDSS 6 at 10 years was 0%, 46.4%, and 81.9% respectively. CONCLUSION: Applying an LCMM modeling approach to long-term EDSS data, it is possible to identify groups of PPMS patients with different prognosis.

Objective: This study evaluated the effect of relapse phenotype on disability accumulation in multiple sclerosis. Methods: Analysis of prospectively collected data was conducted in 19,504 patients with relapse-onset multiple sclerosis and minimum 1-year prospective follow-up from the MSBase cohort study. Multivariable linear regression models assessed associations between relapse incidence, phenotype and changes in disability (quantified with Expanded Disability Status Scale and its Functional System scores). Sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results: In 34,858 relapses recorded during 136,462 patient-years (median follow-up 5.9 years), higher relapse incidence was associated with greater disability accumulation (β = 0.16, p < 0.001). Relapses of all phenotypes promoted disability accumulation, with the most pronounced increase associated with pyramidal (β = 0.27 (0.25–0.29)), cerebellar (β = 0.35 (0.30–0.39)) and bowel/bladder (β = 0.42 (0.35–0.49)) phenotypes (mean (95% confidence interval)). Higher incidence of each relapse phenotype was associated with an increase in disability in the corresponding neurological domain, as well as anatomically related domains. Conclusion: Relapses are associated with accumulation of neurological disability. Relapses in pyramidal, cerebellar and bowel/bladder systems have the greatest association with disability change. Therefore, prevention of these relapses is an important objective of disease-modifying therapy. The differential impact of relapse phenotypes on disability outcomes could influence management of treatment failure in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Alemtuzumab, an anti-CD52 antibody, is proven to be more efficacious than interferon beta-1a in the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, but its efficacy relative to more potent immunotherapies is unknown. We compared the effectiveness of alemtuzumab with natalizumab, fingolimod, and interferon beta in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis treated for up to 5 years. METHODS: In this international cohort study, we used data from propensity-matched patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis from the MSBase and six other cohorts. Longitudinal clinical data were obtained from 71 MSBase centres in 21 countries and from six non-MSBase centres in the UK and Germany between Nov 1, 2015, and June 30, 2016. Key inclusion criteria were a diagnosis of definite relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, exposure to one of the study therapies (alemtuzumab, interferon beta, fingolimod, or natalizumab), age 65 years or younger, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score 6·5 or lower, and no more than 10 years since the first multiple sclerosis symptom. The primary endpoint was annualised relapse rate. The secondary endpoints were cumulative hazards of relapses, disability accumulation, and disability improvement events. We compared relapse rates with negative binomial models, and estimated cumulative hazards with conditional proportional hazards models. FINDINGS: Patients were treated between Aug 1, 1994, and June 30, 2016. The cohorts consisted of 189 patients given alemtuzumab, 2155 patients given interferon beta, 828 patients given fingolimod, and 1160 patients given natalizumab. Alemtuzumab was associated with a lower annualised relapse rate than interferon beta (0·19 [95% CI 0·14-0·23] vs 0·53 [0·46-0·61], p<0·0001) and fingolimod (0·15 [0·10-0·20] vs 0·34 [0·26-0·41], p<0·0001), and was associated with a similar annualised relapse rate as natalizumab (0·20 [0·14-0·26] vs 0·19 [0·15-0·23], p=0·78). For the disability outcome

Timely initiation of effective therapy is crucial for preventing disability in multiple sclerosis; however, treatment response varies greatly among patients. Comprehensive predictive models of individual treatment response are lacking. Our aims were: (i) to develop predictive algorithms for individual treatment response using demographic, clinical and paraclinical predictors in patients with multiple sclerosis; and (ii) to evaluate accuracy, and internal and external validity of these algorithms. This study evaluated 27 demographic, clinical and paraclinical predictors of individual response to seven disease-modifying therapies in MSBase, a large global cohort study. Treatment response was analysed separately for disability progression, disability regression, relapse frequency, conversion to secondary progressive disease, change in the cumulative disease burden, and the probability of treatment discontinuation. Multivariable survival and generalized linear models were used, together with the principal component analysis to reduce model dimensionality and prevent overparameterization. Accuracy of the individual prediction was tested and its internal validity was evaluated in a separate, non-overlapping cohort. External validity was evaluated in a geographically distinct cohort, the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry. In the training cohort (n = 8513), the most prominent modifiers of treatment response comprised age, disease duration, disease course, previous relapse activity, disability, predominant relapse phenotype and previous therapy. Importantly, the magnitude and direction of the associations varied among therapies and disease outcomes. Higher probability of disability progression during treatment with injectable therapies was predominantly associated with a greater disability at treatment start and the previous therapy. For fingolimod, natalizumab or mitoxantrone, it was mainly associated with lower pretreatment relapse activity. The probability of disability

BACKGROUND: Characteristics at clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) examination assist in identification of patient at highest risk of early second attack and could benefit the most from early disease-modifying drugs (DMDs). OBJECTIVE: To examine determinants of second attack and validate a prognostic nomogram for individualised risk assessment of clinical conversion. METHODS: Patients with CIS were prospectively followed up in the MSBase Incident Study. Predictors of clinical conversion were analysed using Cox proportional hazards regression. Prognostic nomograms were derived to calculate conversion probability and validated using concordance indices. RESULTS: A total of 3296 patients from 50 clinics in 22 countries were followed up for a median (inter-quartile range (IQR)) of 1.92 years (0.90, 3.71). In all, 1953 (59.3%) patients recorded a second attack. Higher Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) at baseline, first symptom location, oligoclonal bands and various brain and spinal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) metrics were all predictors of conversion. Conversely, older age and DMD exposure post-CIS were associated with reduced rates. Prognostic nomograms demonstrated high concordance between estimated and observed conversion probabilities. CONCLUSION: This multinational study shows that age at CIS onset, DMD exposure, EDSS, multiple brain and spinal MRI criteria and oligoclonal bands are associated with shorter time to relapse. Nomogram assessment may be useful in clinical practice for estimating future clinical conversion.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate variability and predictability of disability trajectories in moderately advanced and advanced multiple sclerosis (MS), and their modifiability with immunomodulatory therapy. METHODS: The epochs between Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) steps 3-6, 4-6 and 6-6.5 were analysed. Patients with relapse-onset MS and having reached 6-month confirmed baseline EDSS step (3/4/6) were identified in MSBase, a global observational MS cohort study. We used multivariable survival models to examine the impact of disease-modifying therapy, clinical and demographic factors on progression to the outcome EDSS step (6/6.5). Sensitivity analyses with varying outcome definitions and inclusion criteria were conducted. RESULTS: For the EDSS 3-6, 4-6 and 6-6.5 epochs, 1560, 1504 and 1231 patients were identified, respectively. Disability trajectories showed large coefficients of variance prebaseline (0.92-1.11) and postbaseline (2.15-2.50), with no significant correlations. The probability of reaching the outcome step was not associated with prebaseline variables, but was increased by higher relapse rates during each epoch (HRs 1.58-3.07; p<0.001). A greater proportion of each epoch treated with higher efficacy therapies was associated with lower risk of reaching the outcome disability step (HRs 0.72-0.91 per 25%; p≤0.02). 3 sensitivity analyses confirmed these results. CONCLUSIONS: Disease progression during moderately advanced and advanced MS is highly variable and amnesic to prior disease activity. Lower relapse rates and greater time on higher efficacy immunomodulatory therapy after reaching EDSS steps 3, 4 and 6 are associated with a decreased risk of accumulating further disability. Highly effective immunomodulatory therapy ameliorates accumulation of disability in moderately advanced and advanced relapse-onset MS.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to analyse the effect of the introduction of fingolimod, the first oral disease-modifying therapy, on treatment utilisation and persistence in an international cohort of patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: MSBASIS, a prospective, observational sub-study of the MSBase registry, collects demographic, clinical and paraclinical data on patients followed from MS onset (n=4718). We conducted a multivariable conditional risk set survival analysis to identify predictors of treatment discontinuation, and to assess if the introduction of fingolimod has altered treatment persistence. RESULTS: A total of 2640 patients commenced immunomodulatory therapy. Following the introduction of fingolimod, patients were more likely to discontinue all other treatments (hazard ratio 1.64, p<0.001) while more patients switched to fingolimod than any other therapy (42.3% of switches). Patients switched to fingolimod due to convenience. Patients treated with fingolimod were less likely to discontinue treatment compared with other therapies (p<0.001). Female sex, country of residence, younger age, a high Expanded Disability Status Scale score and relapse activity were all independently associated with higher rates of treatment discontinuation. CONCLUSION: Following the availability of fingolimod, patients were more likely to discontinue injectable treatments. Those who switched to fingolimod were more likely to do so for convenience. Persistence was improved on fingolimod compared to other medications.

OBJECTIVE: To identify predictors of 10-year Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) change after treatment initiation in patients with relapse-onset multiple sclerosis. METHODS: Using data obtained from MSBase, we defined baseline as the date of first injectable therapy initiation. Patients need only have remained on injectable therapy for 1 day and were monitored on any approved disease-modifying therapy, or no therapy thereafter. Median EDSS score changes over a 10-year period were determined. Predictors of EDSS change were then assessed using median quantile regression analysis. Sensitivity analyses were further performed. RESULTS: We identified 2,466 patients followed up for at least 10 years reporting post-baseline disability scores. Patients were treated an average 83% of their follow-up time. EDSS scores increased by a median 1 point (interquartile range = 0-2) at 10 years post-baseline. Annualized relapse rate was highly predictive of increases in median EDSS over 10 years (coeff = 1.14, p = 1.9 × 10(-22) ). On-therapy relapses carried greater burden than off-therapy relapses. Cumulative treatment exposure was independently associated with lower EDSS at 10 years (coeff = -0.86, p = 1.3 × 10(-9) ). Furthermore, pregnancies were also independently associated with lower EDSS scores over the 10-year observation period (coeff = -0.36, p = 0.009). INTERPRETATION: We provide evidence of long-term treatment benefit in a large registry cohort, and provide evidence of long-term protective effects of pregnancy against disability accrual. We demonstrate that high annualized relapse rate, particularly on-treatment relapse, is an indicator of poor prognosis. Ann Neurol 2016;80:89-100.

Contains fulltext : 152846.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access), BACKGROUND: There is a growing need to offer persons with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) possibilities for self-management and to integrate multidisciplinary health data. In 2009-2014 we developed a patient-reported outcome based, interactive, web-based program (MSmonitor) for (self-)monitoring, self-management and integrated, multidisciplinary care in MS. METHODS: The notions underlying the MSmonitor concept and the program's elements are described. We analyze MSmonitor's role in the self-management of fatigue by retrospective comparison of fatigue and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) before and after usage of specific elements of MSmonitor, and by a correlative analysis between frequency of usage and fatigue change. RESULTS: After a step-wise development the program comprises six validated questionnaires: Multiple Sclerosis Impact Profile, Modified Fatigue Impact Scale-5 items (MFIS-5), Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, Multiple Sclerosis Quality of Life-54 items, and the 8-item Leeds Multiple Sclerosis Quality of Life (LMSQoL) questionnaires; two inventories: Medication and Adherence Inventory, Miction Inventory; two diaries: Activities Diary, Miction Diary; and two functionalities: e-consult and personal e-logbook. The program is now used in 17 hospitals by 581 PwMS and their neurologists, MS nurses, physical therapists, rehabilitative doctors, continence nurses, and family doctors. Those PwMS (N=105) who used the LMSQoL and MFIS-5 questionnaires at least twice in a period of up to 6 months, showed improved HRQoL (P<0.026). In the subgroup (N=56) who had also used the Activities Diary twice or more, the frequency of diary usage correlated modestly with the degree of fatigue improvement (r=0.292; P=0.028). CONCLUSION: MSmonitor is an interactive web-based program for self-management and integrated care in PwMS. Pilot data suggest that the repeated use of the short MFIS-5 and LMSQoL questionnaires is associated with an increase in HRQoL, and that a repeated

Limited data suggest that multiple sclerosis (MS) in Latin America (LA) could be less severe than in the rest of the world. The objective was to compare the course of MS between LA and other regions. Methods Centers from 18 countries with >20 cases enrolled in the MSBase Registry participated. Patients with MS with a disease duration of >1 year and <30 years at time of EDSS measurement were evaluated. The MS Severity Score (MSSS) was used as a measure of disease progression. Comparisons among regions (North America, Europe, Australia and LA), hemispheres and countries were performed. Results A total of 9610 patients were included. Patients were from: Europe, 6290 (65.6%); North America, 1609 (16.7%); Australia, 1119 (11.6%); and LA, 592 (6.1%). The mean MSSS in patients from LA was 4.47 ± 2.8, 4.53 ± 2.8 in North America, 4.51 ± 2.8 in Europe and 4.49 ± 2.7 in Australia. Mean MSSS in the northern hemisphere was 4.51 ± 1.6 compared to 4.48 ± 1.9 in the southern hemisphere. No differences were found for MSSS among hemispheres ( p = 0.68), regions ( p = 0.96) or countries ( p = 0.50). Conclusions Our analyses did not discover any difference in mean MSSS among patients from different regions, hemispheres or countries.

OBJECTIVE: To assess demographic, clinical, magnetic resonance imaging, and treatment exposure predictors of time to 3 or 12-month confirmed disability worsening in clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) and early multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: We utilized the MSBase Incident Study (MSBasis), a prospective cohort study of outcome after CIS. Predictors of time to first 3 and 12-month confirmed expanded disability status scale worsening were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: About 1989 patients were analyzed, the largest seen-from-onset cohort reported to-date. A total of 391 patients had a first 3-month confirmed disability worsening event, of which 307 were sustained for 12 months. Older age at CIS onset (adjusted hazard ratio: aHR 1.17, 95% 1.06, 1.30), pyramidal (aHR 1.45, 95% CI 1.13, 1.89) and ambulation (HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.09, 2.34) system dysfunction, annualized relapse rate (aHR 1.20, 95% CI 1.18, 1.22), and lower proportion of observation time on treatment were associated with 3-month confirmed worsening. Predictors of time to 12-month sustained worsening included pyramidal system dysfunction (Hazard ratio: aHR 1.38, 95% CI 1.05, 1.83), and older age at CIS onset (aHR 1.17, 95% CI 1.04, 1.31). Greater proportion of follow-up time exposed to treatment was associated with greater reductions in the rate of worsening. INTERPRETATION: This study provides class IV evidence for a strong protective effect of disease-modifying treatment to reduce disability worsening events in patients with CIS and early MS, and confirms age and pyramidal dysfunction at onset as risk factors.

Prevention of irreversible disability is currently the most important goal of disease modifying therapy for multiple sclerosis. The disability outcomes used in most clinical trials rely on progression of Expanded Disability Status Scale score confirmed over 3 or 6 months. However, sensitivity and stability of this metric has not been extensively evaluated. Using the global MSBase cohort study, we evaluated 48 criteria of disability progression, testing three definitions of baseline disability, two definitions of progression magnitude, two definitions of long-term irreversibility and four definitions of event confirmation period. The study outcomes comprised the rates of detected progression events per 10 years and the proportions of the recorded events persistent at later time points. To evaluate the ratio of progression frequency and stability for each criterion, we calculated the proportion of events persistent over the five subsequent years once progression was achieved. Finally, we evaluated the clinical and demographic determinants characterising progression events and, for those that regressed back to baseline, determinants of their subsequent regression. The study population consisted of 16 636 patients with the minimum of three recorded disability scores, totalling 112 584 patient-years. The progression rates varied between 0.41 and 1.14 events per 10 years, with the length of required confirmation interval as the most important determinant of the observed variance. The concordance among all tested progression criteria was only 17.3%. Regression of disability occurred in 11-34% of the progression events over the five subsequent years. The most important determinant of progression stability was the length of the confirmation period. For the most accurate set of the progression criteria, the proportions of 3-, 6-, 12- or 24-month confirmed events persistent over 5 years reached 70%, 74%, 80% and 89%, respectively. Regression post progression was more common in

BACKGROUND: Multiple Sclerosis is more common in women than men and females have more relapses than men. In a large international cohort we have evaluated the effect of gender on disability accumulation and disease progression to determine if male MS patients have a worse clinical outcome than females. METHODS: Using the MSBase Registry, data from 15,826 MS patients from 25 countries was analysed. Changes in the severity of MS (EDSS) were compared between sexes using a repeated measures analysis in generalised linear mixed models. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to test for sex difference in the time to reach EDSS milestones 3 and 6 and the secondary progressive MS. RESULTS: In relapse onset MS patients (n = 14,453), males progressed significantly faster in their EDSS than females (0.133 vs 0.112 per year, P<0.001,). Females had a reduced risk of secondary progressive MS (HR (95% CI) = 0.77 (0.67 to 0.90) P = 0.001). In primary progressive MS (n = 1,373), there was a significant increase in EDSS over time in males and females (P<0.001) but there was no significant sex effect on the annualized rate of EDSS change. CONCLUSION: Among registrants of MSBase, male relapse-onset patients accumulate disability faster than female patients. In contrast, the rate of disability accumulation between male and female patients with primary progressive MS is similar.

IMPORTANCE: After multiple sclerosis (MS) relapse while a patient is receiving an injectable disease-modifying drug, many physicians advocate therapy switch, but the relative effectiveness of different switch decisions is often uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To compare the effect of the oral immunomodulator fingolimod with that of all injectable immunomodulators (interferons or glatiramer acetate) on relapse rate, disability, and treatment persistence in patients with active MS. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Matched retrospective analysis of data collected prospectively from MSBase, an international, observational cohort study. The MSBase cohort represents a population of patients with MS monitored at large MS centers. The analyzed data were collected between July 1996 and April 2014. Participants included patients with relapsing-remitting MS who were switching therapy to fingolimod or injectable immunomodulators up to 12 months after on-treatment clinical disease activity (relapse or progression of disability), matched on demographic and clinical variables. Median follow-up duration was 13.1 months (range, 3-80). Indication and attrition bias were controlled with propensity score matching and pairwise censoring, respectively. Head-to-head analyses of relapse and disability outcomes used paired, weighted, negative binomial models or frailty proportional hazards models adjusted for magnetic resonance imaging variables. Sensitivity analyses were conducted. EXPOSURES: Patients had received fingolimod, interferon beta, or glatiramer acetate for a minimum of 3 months following a switch of immunomodulatory therapy. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Annualized relapse rate and proportion of relapse-free patients, as well as the proportion of patients without sustained disability progression. RESULTS: Overall, 379 patients in the injectable group were matched to 148 patients in the fingolimod group. The fingolimod group had a lower mean annualized relapse rate (0.31 vs 0.42; 95% CI

OBJECTIVES: The aim was to analyse risk of relapse phenotype recurrence in multiple sclerosis and to characterise the effect of demographic and clinical features on this phenotype. METHODS: Information about relapses was collected using MSBase, an international observational registry. Associations between relapse phenotypes and history of similar relapses or patient characteristics were tested with multivariable logistic regression models. Tendency of relapse phenotypes to recur sequentially was assessed with principal component analysis. RESULTS: Among 14,969 eligible patients (89,949 patient-years), 49,279 phenotypically characterised relapses were recorded. Visual and brainstem relapses occurred more frequently in early disease and in younger patients. Sensory relapses were more frequent in early or non-progressive disease. Pyramidal, sphincter and cerebellar relapses were more common in older patients and in progressive disease. Women presented more often with sensory or visual symptoms. Men were more prone to pyramidal, brainstem and cerebellar relapses. Importantly, relapse phenotype was predicted by the phenotypes of previous relapses. (OR = 1.8-5, p = 10(-14)). Sensory, visual and brainstem relapses showed better recovery than other relapse phenotypes. Relapse severity increased and the ability to recover decreased with age or more advanced disease. CONCLUSION: Relapse phenotype was associated with demographic and clinical characteristics, with phenotypic recurrence significantly more common than expected by chance.

OBJECTIVES: To compare treatment persistence between two dosages of interferon β-1a in a large observational multiple sclerosis registry and assess disease outcomes of first line MS treatment at these dosages using propensity scoring to adjust for baseline imbalance in disease characteristics. METHODS: Treatment discontinuations were evaluated in all patients within the MSBase registry who commenced interferon β-1a SC thrice weekly (n = 4678). Furthermore, we assessed 2-year clinical outcomes in 1220 patients treated with interferon β-1a in either dosage (22 µg or 44 µg) as their first disease modifying agent, matched on propensity score calculated from pre-treatment demographic and clinical variables. A subgroup analysis was performed on 456 matched patients who also had baseline MRI variables recorded. RESULTS: Overall, 4054 treatment discontinuations were recorded in 3059 patients. The patients receiving the lower interferon dosage were more likely to discontinue treatment than those with the higher dosage (25% vs. 20% annual probability of discontinuation, respectively). This was seen in discontinuations with reasons recorded as "lack of efficacy" (3.3% vs. 1.7%), "scheduled stop" (2.2% vs. 1.3%) or without the reason recorded (16.7% vs. 13.3% annual discontinuation rate, 22 µg vs. 44 µg dosage, respectively). Propensity score was determined by treating centre and disability (score without MRI parameters) or centre, sex and number of contrast-enhancing lesions (score including MRI parameters). No differences in clinical outcomes at two years (relapse rate, time relapse-free and disability) were observed between the matched patients treated with either of the interferon dosages. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment discontinuations were more common in interferon β-1a 22 µg SC thrice weekly. However, 2-year clinical outcomes did not differ between patients receiving the different dosages, thus replicating in a registry dataset derived from "real-world" database the results of t

The aim of this work was to evaluate sex differences in the incidence of multiple sclerosis relapses; assess the relationship between sex and primary progressive disease course; and compare effects of age and disease duration on relapse incidence. Annualized relapse rates were calculated using the MSBase registry. Patients with incomplete data or <1 year of follow-up were excluded. Patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis were only included in the sex ratio analysis. Relapse incidences over 40 years of multiple sclerosis or 70 years of age were compared between females and males with Andersen-Gill and Tweedie models. Female-to-male ratios stratified by annual relapse count were evaluated across disease duration and patient age and compared between relapse-onset and primary progressive multiple sclerosis. The study cohort consisted of 11 570 eligible patients with relapse-onset and 881 patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Among the relapse-onset patients (82 552 patient-years), 48,362 relapses were recorded. Relapse frequency was 17.7% higher in females compared with males. Within the initial 5 years, the female-to-male ratio increased from 2.3:1 to 3.3:1 in patients with 0 versus ≥4 relapses per year, respectively. The magnitude of this sex effect increased at longer disease duration and older age (P < 10(-12)). However, the female-to-male ratio in patients with relapse-onset multiple sclerosis and zero relapses in any given year was double that of the patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Patient age was a more important determinant of decline in relapse incidence than disease duration (P < 10(-12)). Females are predisposed to higher relapse activity than males. However, this difference does not explain the markedly lower female-to-male sex ratio in primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Decline in relapse activity over time is more closely related to patient age than disease duration.

Introduction: Only one large retrospective cohort study and several smaller analyses examined predictors of relapse incidence in MS. Sex, age and MS duration were suggested as determinants of relapse activity. While in relapsing-remitting MS women are overrepresented in the ratio of 3:1 to men, in primary progressive disease both sexes are represented equally. A lower probability of relapse in men could be the reason for this change, with primary progressive (PP) MS representing the “extreme” of low relapse activity. Aims: To evaluate effect of sex on the incidence of MS relapses. To assess the hypothesis that the female-to-male ratio increases gradually with relapse activity and that PPMS represents a non-relapsing extreme along this continuum. To directly compare effects of age and MS duration on relapse incidence. Methods: Annualised relapse rates were calculated using the MSBase registry. Patients with incomplete data or less than one year of follow-up were excluded. Patients with PPMS were only included in the sex ratio analysis. Relapse incidences over 40 years of MS duration or up to 70 years of age were compared between females and males using Andersen-Gill and Poisson models. Female-to-male ratios stratified by annual relapse count were evaluated across disease duration and patient age and compared between relapse-onset and PPMS. All models were adjusted for therapy and pregnancy. Results: Among 11,570 eligible patients with relapse-onset MS (82,552 patient-years), 48,362 relapses were recorded. Relapse frequency was 17.7% higher in females compared to males. Within the initial five years, the female-to-male ratio increased from 2.3:1 to 3.3:1 in patients with 0 to >=4 relapses per year, respectively. The magnitude of this sex effect increased at longer MS duration and older age. However, the female-to-male ratio in patients with relapse-onset MS and zero relapses in any given year was double that of the patients with PPMS. Patient age was a more important

Introduction: Our knowledge of incidence and outcomes of MS relapses with specific symptomatology is limited. For example, optic neuritis is more common in early MS and the ability to recover deteriorates with longer disease duration. However, a comprehensive evaluation of multiple sclerosis relapse phenotypes, comprising clinical presentations, severity, impact and recovery, and capturing full spectrum of MS courses, duration and patient demography, has not yet been done. Aim: To identify patterns of clinical MS relapses, their impact on specific neuroanatomical locations and their associations with demographic and clinical parameters. Methods: Information about relapse symptomatology was collected prospectively in 17,555 eligible patients and 104,333 patient-years recorded in MSBase, an international observational MS registry. In a proportion of the relapses, information about relapse severity, impact on activities of daily living and recovery was available. Associations between relapse phenotype and patient characteristics were tested with a series of multivariable logistic regression models. Principal component analysis was conducted to assess the tendency of the specific relapse locations to be involved sequentially in individual patients. Results: Of 63,343 relapses, the majority affected pyramidal and sensory functions. Visual and brainstem relapses occurred more frequently in early disease and in younger patients. Sensory relapses were recorded mostly in earlier disease and less commonly in relapsing-progressive disease. Pyramidal, sphincter and cerebellar relapses were more common in older patients and in progressive disease. Women more commonly presented with sensory or visual symptoms, while men were more prone to pyramidal, brainstem and cerebellar relapses. Relapses were likely to recur within the previously affected locations (odd ratios 1.8 – 5, p = 10^-13), with pyramidal, sphincter and sensory relapses often converging within the same individuals (e

The aim of this work was to evaluate sex differences in the incidence of multiple sclerosis relapses; assess the relationship between sex and primary progressive disease course; and compare effects of age and disease duration on relapse incidence. Annualized relapse rates were calculated using the MSBase registry. Patients with incomplete data or <1 year of follow-up were excluded. Patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis were only included in the sex ratio analysis. Relapse incidences over 40 years of multiple sclerosis or 70 years of age were compared between females and males with Andersen-Gill and Tweedie models. Female-to-male ratios stratified by annual relapse count were evaluated across disease duration and patient age and compared between relapse-onset and primary progressive multiple sclerosis. The study cohort consisted of 11 570 eligible patients with relapse-onset and 881 patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Among the relapse-onset patients (82 552 patient-years), 48,362 relapses were recorded. Relapse frequency was 17.7% higher in females compared with males. Within the initial 5 years, the female-to-male ratio increased from 2.3:1 to 3.3:1 in patients with 0 versus ≥4 relapses per year, respectively. The magnitude of this sex effect increased at longer disease duration and older age (P < 10(-12)). However, the female-to-male ratio in patients with relapse-onset multiple sclerosis and zero relapses in any given year was double that of the patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Patient age was a more important determinant of decline in relapse incidence than disease duration (P < 10(-12)). Females are predisposed to higher relapse activity than males. However, this difference does not explain the markedly lower female-to-male sex ratio in primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Decline in relapse activity over time is more closely related to patient age than disease duration.