1. Choosing small sets of policy-relevant scenarios by combining vulnerability and diversity approaches.
- Author
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Carlsen, Henrik, Lempert, Robert, Wikman-Svahn, Per, and Schweizer, Vanessa
- Subjects
- *
PSYCHOLOGICAL vulnerability , *GEODIVERSITY , *COMPUTER simulation , *DECISION support systems , *FUTURES , *CLIMATE change research - Abstract
Computer simulation models can generate large numbers of scenarios, far more than can be effectively utilized in most decision support applications. How can one best select a small number of scenarios to consider? One approach calls for choosing scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities of proposed policies. Another calls for choosing scenarios that span a diverse range of futures. This paper joins these two approaches for the first time, proposing an optimization-based method for choosing a small number of relevant scenarios that combine both vulnerability and diversity. The paper applies the method to a real case involving climate resilient infrastructure for three African river basins (Volta, Orange and Zambezi). Introducing selection criteria in a stepwise manner helps examine how different criteria influence the choice of scenarios. The results suggest that combining vulnerability- and diversity-based criteria can provide a systematic and transparent method for scenario selection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2016
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