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Additional file 1: Figure S1. The distribution of whether local residents need to pay for vaccine. Figure S2. Geographic distribution of overall technical platforms for vaccines. Figure S3. Proportion administered by vaccine technical platforms. Figure S4. Proportion administered by vaccine types. Figure S5. Date at which achieved one dose per 100 people in total population by country. Figure S6. Vaccine coverage over time stratified by income groups and role of vaccine seller/donor or recipient. Figure S7. Vaccine coverage stratified by SDI quintile and WHO region. Figure S8. The association between vaccine coverage with physician density and government health spending per capita. Figure S9. Corrections between vaccine coverage and country-level vaccine acceptance. Table S1. Authorization information of COVID-19 vaccines by technical platforms and country. Table S2. Target populations and contraindications recommended by regulatory agencies. Table S3. Policies on additional or booster dose of COVID-19 vaccine. Table S4. Country lists of selling/donating or receiving COVID-19 vaccines. Table S5. Categories and definitions of special population groups belonging to indication and contraindication lists. Table S6. Global, regional, and national target population (TP). Table S7. The list of variables for investigating associations with vaccine coverage. Table S8. Analysis of multicollinearity. Table S9. Global, regional, and national demand of vaccine dose.

COVID-19 vaccination is being conducted in over 190 countries/regions to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission and return to a pre-pandemic lifestyle. However, understanding when non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can be lifted as immunity builds up remain a key question for policy makers. To address it, we built a data-driven model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission for China. We estimated that to prevent the escalation of local outbreaks to widespread epidemics, stringent NPIs need to remain in place at least one year after the start of vaccination. Should NPIs alone be capable to keep the reproduction number (R t ) around 1.3, the synergetic effect of NPIs and vaccination could reduce up to 99% of COVID-19 burden and bring R t below the epidemic threshold in about 9 months. Maintaining strict NPIs throughout 2021 is of paramount importance to reduce COVID-19 burden while vaccines are distributed to the population, especially in large populations with little natural immunity.

COVID-19 vaccination programs have been initiated in several countries to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission and return to a pre-pandemic lifestyle. However, understanding when non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can be lifted as vaccination builds up and how to update priority groups for vaccination in real-time remain key questions for policy makers. To address these questions, we built a data-driven model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission for China. We estimated that, to prevent local outbreaks to escalate to major widespread epidemics, stringent NPIs need to remain in place at least one year after the start of vaccination. Should NPIs be capable to keep the reproduction number (R t ) around 1.3, a vaccination program could reduce up to 99% of COVID-19 burden and bring R t below the epidemic threshold in about 9 months. Maintaining strict NPIs throughout 2021 is of paramount importance to reduce COVID-19 burden while vaccines are distributed to the population, especially in large populations with little natural immunity., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests H.Y. has received research funding from Sanofi Pasteur, GlaxoSmithKline, Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharmaceutical Company, and Shanghai Roche Pharmaceutical Company. M.A. has received research funding from Seqirus. None of those research funding is related to COVID-19. All other authors report no competing interests.