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Copyright of Demography (Springer Nature) is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper is concerned with analyzing one structural source of pressure for wives to contribute to family income. This is the "life-cycle squeeze"--the situation where a man's resources are inadequate to meet the needs engendered by the number and ages of his children. Studies of how economic needs vary by family life-cycle stage indicate that one high point of need occurs when men are in their forties and early fifties. However, 1960 Census data on earnings patterns by age indicate that in only relatively high-level professional, managerial and sales occupations do average earnings peak at the same time family income needs are peaking. For most blue-collar and many medium- and low-level white collar occupations, median earnings are highest for younger men, and men at an age when family costs are at their maximum are earning somewhat less, on the average. As a consequence, the families of such men run the risk of a deterioration in their level of living unless an additional income is brought into the household. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the design effect of counting rules, for linking deaths to housing units where they are enumerated in the survey, on the sampling variance of dual system and single system estimators of death registration completeness. It investigates estimators based on conventional rules that uniquely link each death to a single housing unit as well as estimators based on multiplicity rules which permit deaths to be linked to more than one housing unit. Sampling variance formulas are derived containing parameters that reflect the efficiency of the counting rule. Estimates of these parameters for different counting rules are compared utilizing information that was collected in a mortality survey experiment. Finally, the design of a national death registration test is considered and the sample size implications of different counting rules are compared. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Demography (Springer Nature) is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Demography (Springer Nature) is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Demography (Springer Nature) is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Demography (Springer Nature) is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Demography (Springer Nature) is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Demography (Springer Nature) is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Demography (Springer Nature) is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Demography (Springer Nature) is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

As a follow-up on the studies by Dorn and Beale, this paper examines differences between Iowa counties with natural decrease and those with natural increase and analyzes the part that migration and fertility played in bringing about an excess of deaths over births in Iowa counties. The county groups are distinctly different in demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Out-migration as a mode of response adopted by the rural population in Iowa is by far the most dominant factor leading to natural decrease. Sustained net out-migration is more likely to touch off natural decrease in counties of comparatively low fertility than in those with higher fertility. Low fertility is, therefore, a contributing factor to the imbalance between births and deaths, but the amount of influence of fertility adjustment over the fertility differentials among county groups cannot be ascertained in this study because of the correlation between fertility and Catholic Church membership in counties. The data of this study were obtained from the population censuses and vital statistics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper tests a set of hypotheses about the impact of urbanization and geographical mobility on the linguistic Russification of 46 Soviet nationalities. The hypotheses are based on theoretical literature regarding the differing career aspirations of urban and rural residents, Soviet policies of providing native-language cultural facilities to non-Russian groups, and the probable levels of contact between non-Russians and Russians in specific residential settings. The data are aggregate data on place of residence, nationality, and native language derived from the 1959 Soviet Census. It is shown that (a) both urbanization and geographical dispersion have substantial Russificatory effects, (b) geographical dispersion (residence outside the official national area of the group) alone has a stronger impact on Russification than does urban residence, and (c) residence inside the official national territory partially suppresses what might otherwise be an even stronger Russificatory effect of urbanization, so that (d) urban residence and residence outside the official national area interact to produce a higher level of Russification than one might predict on the basis of the simple additive effects of urban and outside residence. It is a]so shown that males are more highly Russified than females in all of the residential settings examined but that these differences are quite small, especially for urbanites and residents outside the official national area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a socioeconomic occupational grouping of the foreign-born gainful workers of the United States at each census from 1870 through 1930. This series is then used to estimate the net immigration of gainful workers into the United States during each of the six decades from 1870 to 1930 cross classified by occupational group and sex. The following three conclusions are then drawn from the above two series. First, the socioeconomic position of the foreign-born population of the United States remained relatively stable from 1870 to 1910 but then increased appreciably from 1910 to 1930. Second, although most of the contribution that immigration made to the United States labor force was in the form of semiskilled and unskilled workers, the relative importance of professional, clerical, and skilled workers increased almost continuously from 1870 to 1930. Third, the "new immigration" was not less skilled than the "old immigration". On the contrary it was actually more skilled than the "old immigration". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers social and economic correlates of age-specific 1950-1960 net migration of Negro males from a sample of 150 southern counties. A model is developed with five components: (1) economic activity and urbanization, (2) white traditionalism, (3) demographic and ecological pressure, (4) nonwhite poverty, and (5) nonwhite home ownership. The dominant migration forces, as evidenced by correlations with component indicator variables, are the "pull" factor of change in non-primary industrial employment, the "push" factor of population pressure in the nonwhite rural-farm sector, and the "push" of white traditionalism. However, the significance of model components varied when analyzed along age and industrial development continua. In the younger age groupings, industrial employment growth, population pressure, and white traditionalism were dominant migratory forces while in the older age groupings, industrial employment growth and non-home ownership were most significant. For Negro males in agricultural counties, the major migration propellents appeared to be the "push" of population pressure in the rural farm sector and non-ownership of homes. On the other hand the statistical explanation for Negro migration in more industrialized southern counties rests primarily with the "pull" of increased employment in non-primary industries along with population pressure. The importance of the findings for migration theory is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The physical development of the live born infant is the single most important variable governing its survival: infant mortality among those weighing 2,500 grams (5 1/2 pounds) or less at birth is 17 times the mortality among those weighing more than 2,500 grams at birth. The variation in mortality according to birth weight (or gestation) is greater than for subclasses of color, sex, maternal age, or birth order. Infant mortality in the United States is significantly higher than in a number of other countries e.g., Sweden, Netherlands, Norway. The difference is thought, by some, to be due to underregistration of low birth weight infants in other countries. In this paper, distributions of live births by birth weight for Denmark, England and Wales, New Zealand, and the United States, and infant mortality data for Denmark and the United States are examined. The data do not support a hypothesis of gross underregistration of live born infants in other countries. The results indicate that some index of physical development (birth weight, gestation, or a combination of both) should be included in any appraisal of infant mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Demography (Springer Nature) is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Demography (Springer Nature) is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Demography (Springer Nature) is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Demography (Springer Nature) is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Demography (Springer Nature) is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Demography (Springer Nature) is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Demography (Springer Nature) is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Demography (Springer Nature) is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article summarizes findings on the nature of long swings or Kuznets cycles in the growth of U.S. population and labor force and on their apparent cause-effect relations in the period prior to World War I to similar movements in the rate of economic development. Many of the findings for population and labor force are based on the decennial population censuses of 1870 to 1950. The timing of the censuses during this period occurred sufficiently close to turning points in the demographic swings to permit use of this valuable detailed source. The growth of both population and labor force has been characterized by roughly synchronous long swings since at least 1870 and probably since early in the nineteenth century. The swings were typically of substantial amplitude and averaged around 15-25 years in duration. The color-nativity components of population and labor force reflect the predominant influence that immigration has typically played in the swings. Historically the swings are most apparent in the growth of the foreign born population and labor force.

The article focuses on the farm population and differential fertility. Recent studies have suggested that within the non-farm population the classic pattern of differential fertility is confined to couples in which one or both spouses grew up on the farm. Neither study provides national data on couples with completed fertility. The present paper fills these gaps of demographic information. The data come from the March 1962 Current Population Survey of the Bureau of the Census, in which standard information on cumulative fertility was collected. The Occupational Changes in Generation (OCG), which asked each male respondent 20-64 years old to state the occupation of his father and his father-in-law. Questionnaires were completed by five-sixths of the eligible respondents, after a sub-sample of initial non-respondents was followed up so that unbiased estimates could be calculated. The OCG questionnaire asked the respondents to indicate the kind of work their father or other person who was the head of the family did when they were about 16 years old.

The article presents a full discussion of census methods and their effects on the quality of census data is essential if the Bureau of the Census is to meet the needs of the many users of its data. Actually, in the tests and uses which researchers have made of self-enumeration, researchers have used a mixed approach. Forms are mailed to respondents to be filled out and returned by mail; these are inspected and those which are identified as failing to meet the tests of acceptability are followed up by telephone or personal visit in an effort to obtain acceptable results. Respondents who fail to submit returns are visited by enumerators to obtain acceptable results. In recruiting census and Current Population Survey field workers, researchers use a referral system to secure nominees. In both cases a large proportion of the persons actually hired comes from other sources. All field personnel must pass our tests before they can be employed, all must be trained, their work is inspected for acceptability, and corrective action is taken when it is identified as needed.

The article presents an evaluation of new estimates of the African American population. The first step consists of correcting single-year-of-age data of each census 1930-60 for age heaping. The adjustment involves cumulating census data or census-equivalent data in single years of age for African Americans into five-year age groups with the mid-ages ending in digits 4 or 9, mathematically smoothing the distributions and interpolating for single years of age (using Sprague multipliers), and then regrouping into the conventional five-year age groups. If the authors are suggesting that the (assumed) greater underregistration of deaths in 1930 than in 1940 was responsible in part or in total for showing that the 1930 Census was more completely enumerated than the 1940 Census, and that even higher levels of underregistration of deaths in 1930 would lead to even lower enumeration errors in 1930, then they are either incorrect or have not adequately described their methodology. Although the differences for African Americans between the complete counts and the sample counts for all ages combined are relatively small, more substantial differences are implied for some age groups.

The article has two purposes. The first is to contribute to a common understanding of terminology and concepts on the subject of response variability. The second is to present sonic results obtained from the Response Variance Study of the 1960 Censuses of Population and Housing. The estimate for a single pair of interviewers may turn out to be negative, that is, the estimated sampling variance will turn out to be greater that the estimated total variance. In general, the results for a single pair or for small samples of pairs are quite unreliable and the distribution of the interviewer-variance estimates from randomized pairs of interviewers is highly skewed. To determine the response re-variance of the average result obtained in larger areas than in 1950 and 1960, the response re-variance should be divided by a factor, which is the ratio of the population of the area of interest to the population of the area of randomization. In 1960, the range was about three to about nineteen times. It is interesting to note that the between--interviewer variability for non-response on educational items in 1960 are higher than this type of variability in 1950, whereas for income the variability in non-response was higher in 1950 than in 1960.

Copyright of Demography (Springer Nature) is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article presents an abstract of an article on the statistical methodology of the National Jewish Population Survey in the U.S. This paper reports on the three aspects of the recently conducted study. The first section outlines the survey's sample design detailing the complexities of sampling American Jewry. The second section reports the response rates and sample weights. While the third section estimated the American Jewish population.

Trends and interregional differences in the birth rate in Brazil between 1950 and 1970 are examined. Estimates are based on data from the 1950 and 1970 censuses. Regional differences in birth measures (crude and general rates) were found to widen between 1950 and 1970 despite a decline in fertility at the national level and a narrowing of regional differences in important socioeconomicvariables like income and urbanization, The substantial interregional migration flows which occurred in Brazil between 1950 and 1970 are examined for their possible impact on differentials. The effects are mixed, but the conclusion is that migration contributed to widening differences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several estimates of total net underenumeration and of net census errors by sex, race (white, Negro-and-other-races, Negro), and age (five-year groups) in the 1960 and 1970 Censuses, for the total population of the United States, derived by the methods of demographic analysis, are presented. The different data, procedures, and assumptions employed in developing the various estimates are described briefly, and the findings are then discussed in terms of a "preferred" set of estimates. The preferred set of estimates of corrected population for 1970 combines estimates for persons under age 35 based directly on birth, death, and migration statistics, estimates for females aged 35 to 64 based on the Coale-Zelnik estimates (white) for 1950 or the Coale-Rives estimates (Negro) for 1960, estimates for males aged 35 to 64 based on the use of expected sex ratios, and estimates for the population 65 and over based on "Medicare" enrollments and expected sex ratios. These estimates indicate an overall net underenumeration of 5.3 million persons or 2.5 percent in 1970, as compared with 5.1 million or 2.7 percent in 1960, and a net underenumeration of 1.9 percent for whites and of 7.7 percent for Negroes in 1970, as compared with 2.0 percent and 8.0 percent, respectively, in 1960. As in 1960, undercoverage in 1970 was greatest for Negro males (9.9 percent); net error rates exceeded 12 percent in each age group 20 to 49 and reached 17 to 19 percent at ages 25 to 44. All sex-race groups showed marked in- creases between 1960 and 1970 for children under ten and marked declines at ages ten to 24. Equally reliable estimates of population coverage cannot be prepared for states and smaller geographic units or for the population of Spanish ancestry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article comments on George Zito's article "A Note on the Population of Seventeenth Century London," published in the 1972 issue of the journal "Demography." This article shows his concern in hypothesis of linear population growth for London and whether he has provided sufficient statistical evidence to warrant his conclusions. Even if the resulting t-value were large enough to lead to a rejection of the hypothesis, one should not discard his equation because this equation might be the best estimate of the underlying relationship up to 1690, whereas some other model of London's population growth might pertain to the period from 1690 to 1801. By judging the suitability of different equations, on the basis of how close they come to the 1801 census value, Zito seems to be assuming that the linear model describing London's population growth is appropriate throughout the entire 250-year period from 1550 to 1801. This t-value is not strong enough to reject a one-tailed test of the hypothesis at the five percent level.

Using data from the 1970 National Fertility Study, the trend in the initiation of contraception prior to the first pregnancy is examined. This trend is of interest because of its relationship to the tempo of family-building. Using data from a recent marriage cohort, it is shown that use before the first pregnancy is related to age at marriage, age at termination of first pregnancy and the probability of having a premarital conception. For women first married during the decade of the 1960's, there was a substantial increase in the proportion using contraception before the first pregnancy. This trend is found among both white Catholics and white non-Catholics, but not among blacks. An examination of the specific method used by women using contraception before the first pregnancy reveals a shift from reliance on the traditional methods of diaphragm, condom and douche by the earlier birth cohorts to the use of the pill by the more recent cohorts. An appendix examines the reliability of various measures of the interval of first use of contraception. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Do couples at given parities who expect to have additional births differ on selected characteristics from their counterparts who do not expect to have any more children? This question is examined herein focusing attention on the wife's age, age at marriage, religion, and education and the husband's education and income. The method used is the discriminant-function analysis. The data are from the 1965 U. S. National Fertility Study. The combined discriminatory power of the social and economic background characteristics examined herein has been found to be greater at higher parities than at lower ones, while the opposite is true of demographic characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A share of the recent decline in birth expectations of young American wives may be due to the historically unique stimulus of intense public attention to population growth and family size. Data on whites from numerous national surveys provide at least four types of evidence favoring this thesis: a sudden massing of responses in the two-child category (the ZPG formula); a tolerance for the large family; an aversion to childlessness and the one-child family; and an inconsistency between respondents' evaluations of the family cycle and childspacing, on the one hand, and their personal acceptance of the two-child norm, on the other. The lack of congruence in American reproductive attitudes at present suggests that some conservatism might be wise in accepting current birth expectations as valid indicators of the long-run intentions of youthful cohorts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of the present communication is to generalize a model of Brass's (1958), relating to the Probability distribution of births to mothers with completed fertility. A simple method of estimating the parameters of the model, based on successive iterations, has been dealt with. Finally, the improvement obtained by generalizing the Brass model has been tested by fitting the same to the maternity data of 5190 women in the United States in the age sector 45-49. An alternative variant of the model for quick computation of probabilities for higher order of births has been included. The application of the model for obtaining a refined index of fecundability and sterility has also been discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although birth order is recognized as an important social variable, the incidence of various birth orders is often difficult to assess using vital statistics. A technique is described whereby the incidence of birth orders in a population may be estimated directly from census data on the number of children ever born to post-menopausal women. The technique has the advantages of allowing ready utilization of existing and widely available data, based on very large samples on which considerable supplementary information is available. In addition, it draws attention to a relatively neglected aspect of differential fertility, namely, the child's perspective as opposed to the mother's view. Limitations of the technique relating to quality of data, to multiple births, and to differentials in infant and maternal mortality are discussed, and possible applications in demography and sociology are suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Differences in the distribution of population within and across metropolitan areas are seen as a product of the development of the metropolis during different transportation epochs. Age cohorts of census tracts in Cleveland, Ohio, may be split into three groups of development patterns based on the time of their early development: (1) before the development of the automobile, (2) during the early period of the auto's diffusion to the population, and (3) during the period of the mass diffusion of the auto. Patterns of population concentration and congestion across metropolitan areas are heavily selective of places with large population growth before the development of the streetcar and the automobile. More recent population growth has had little effect on population congestion but has led to a deconcentrated metropolis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A study was made of the factors that affected the casefinding of internal migrations in Liberia using the Chandrasekar-Deming dual enumeration and tabulation methods. The results of this work suggest that the recording and not recording of a migration is not a random occurrence but is associated with a particular enumeration system, origin and destination of the migration, and the migrant's age, sex, and location of current residence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Religious preference and educational level appear to be the major characteristics accounting for variation by age at marriage among Americans. Differences in age at marriage by educational attainment have been definitively documented in census reports, while those by religion have been based largely on analyses of the experience in the two states where religion is a separate item on the marriage certificate. This current study of category of ceremony data, as reported on marriage certificates, indicates that this item can, for some purposes, fairly adequately serve as a substitute source of data for specific religious information. Data for Maryland residents, showing that persons involved in Jewish and Catholic weddings marry later than those in Protestant ceremonies, are in close agreement with findings obtained in a national probability sample which ascertained religious preference and age at marriage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study empirically investigates the relationship between the economic structure of populations and their level of fertility, using data from censuses recently conducted in some 50 nations. Findings show that high rates of female labor force participation outside the home and low rates of economic activity of children depress a society's fertility level, as measured by the crude birth rate or the child-woman ratio. It is also hypothesized, but not confirmed, that the per cent of unpaid family work- ers in a society is positively related to its fertility level. A model is presented that treats these three components of economic structure as intervening variables through which the exogenous variables, urbanization, industrialization, and education, operate in influencing the fertility level of a society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 1970 census included numerous procedural innovations, of which the most important was the use of mail-out/mail-back techniques. A state- wide survey of Wisconsin households (conducted in May and June, 1970) included questions designed to elicit information on the degree of cooperation rendered, ease of comprehension of the form, possible objectionable items on the census, whether or not contacts were made by enumerators, and respondent judgments of the adequacy of enumerators' performance. The results indicate that Wisconsin respondents tended to comply with census procedures, that they found very little difficulty in filling out the mailed forms, and that they regarded the census enumerators as doing a "good job" in most cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been considerable interest in the relation between familysize desires and completed fertility. Longitudinal data from the Princeton Fertility Study provide a unique opportunity to compare the number of children desired after the birth of a second child to the size of completed families. The average number of children desired by women after the birth of their second child predicts very well the average size of their completed families. The average family size desired at the first interview and average estimated completed family size some eight years later are identical for the total sample, and vary hardly at all within religious or education subgroups. One-third of the variance in the completed fertility of couples is "explained" by wife's family-size desires and the proportion of explained variance increases to two-fifths when we include the husband's first interview desires and the interval between marriage and second birth. Yet in spite of the relatively high correlation between desires and achievement, only 41 percent of these women achieved exactly the number of children they desired at the first interview, while 14 percent had two children more or fewer than originally desired. Nevertheless, data on contraceptive efficiency indicate that desires after the birth of the second child constitute meaningful goals in terms of which the respondents regulate their subsequent behavior-efficacy of contraceptive practice shows substantial improvement after the desired number has been achieved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A sample of death certificates matched with 1960 Census records permitted comparison of response data for items asked on both records. Estimates of bias in death rates which are based on information from the two records are derived from the comparison data. Most of the comparisons yielded small discrepancies of inconsequential effect on the mortality rates. Some large inconsistencies, however, of potentially serious impact on the death rates were observed. The comparisons are examined and the implications of the results for the relevant mortality rates are discussed. In addition, age-specific death rates "corrected" for the disparities found in the age information on the two records are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since October, 1965, births and deaths in rural Gujarat State, India, have been recorded under two independent systems in a random sample of units. First, a part-time local "registrar" is appointed in each sample unit (village or segment thereof) who: prepares a house list; conducts a baseline survey showing the individuals in each household; and maintains a list of the vital events reported by informants whom he contacts fortnightly. Second, a staff member at the rural health centre is assigned part-time supervisory and survey duties: to check the initial listings of the registrar; thereafter, to inspect the registrar's records at least quarterly; and to conduct a household survey each six months, updating the household register and recording births and deaths independently. The registrar's list is sent to the district office immediately before the survey, where it is matched with the survey list forwarded by the local supervisor. A list of unmatched events is returned to the supervisor who with the registrar revisits households to resolve the discrepancies. Under-registration is estimated to be 13 to 20 percent by the registrar method, 8 to 17 percent by the survey method. The birth rate is estimated to be about 44 and the death rate about 19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most Western societies have gone through a process of population change during the past 100-150 years. One important aspect is the socalled demographic transition: the shift from high to low birth and death rates, and accelerated growth resulting from the lag between falling mortality and falling fertility, in national populations. Equally important has been the "rural-to-urban" transition, which involved the migration of millions of people from rural areas. It is hypothesized, following the suggestion of Davis (Theory of the Multi-Phasic Demographic Response), that the adjustment in reproductive behavior made by a community in response to a rising "strain," such as that resulting from higher natural increase, is likely to differ depending upon the ease with which the community can relieve the strain through out migration. Relationships among such characteristics of modernization as intensity of industrialization, speed of urbanization, structural changes in the agricultural system, and declining fertility are implied. Case studies of England and Sweden lend support to the hypothesis: more rapid urban-industrial development, larger-scale movement from rural areas, and a delayed decline in the rural birth rate distinguish the English transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The value of national sample survey data relating to birth expectations for projecting births is reassessed in the light of data limitations pointed out by Ryder and Westiff among others and of the methods of projection used by the United States Bureau of the Census. The annual level of fertility under the cohort-fertility projection method depends on the assumptions regarding completed fertility, about which the available survey data are fairly informative, and on the assumptions regarding the timing of births, about which the survey data tell us very little. Test calculations suggest that Ryder and Westoff have overstated the significance of timing relative to completed family size for the level of future births. We believe that the fall in the annual total fertility rate in the first half of the sixties is to be explained only in part by a general delay in childbearing; a moderate to substantial decrease in completed family size has also occurred. Analysis of the latest set of fertility projections of the Census Bureau also suggests that the assumptions about completed fertility are a much more important determinant of the level of future births than timing, both in the short and long term. Although the available expectations data cannot help in predicting short-term annual changes in fertility, they appear useful for making long-term projections of annual fertility. Expansion of the size, frequency, and content of the sample surveys and incorporation of parity and birth interval into the projection method may improve projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Movements of young men into and out of the armed forces and youth entering and leaving the college population are an important component of the migration between 1955 and 1960 recorded in the 1960 Census of the United States. Measures of the migration behavior of persons in the armed forces or attending college at the end of the period (1960) are presented to show the substantial volume of these special types of movement. Under 1960 Census procedures, no corresponding measures of the migration behavior of persons in the armed forces or attending college at the beginning of the period (1955) can be obtained. A sizeable number of the "migrants," especially the young and well educated, identified in the 1960 Censuses must be persons who were in the armed forces or away at college in 1955 and, by 1960, had completed their military service or their education and returned to their previous places of residence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]