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This paper is written with three objectives in mind. First, to point out that the problem of grouping, where a larger number of elements n are combined into m mutually exclusive groups (m ~n) should be recognized as a problem in Integer Programming, and that such recognition can help us in avoiding complete enumeration of stages in grouping from n to n - 1 ... to m, and of alternative possibilities in each stage. Second, to formulate mathematically some simple versions of the relevant Integer Programming Problem, so that the available computer codes can solve it. When the grouping attempts to minimize the within groups sums of squares, the so-called string property is proved to be necessary for the minimum (Lemma 1). It is shown that the string property can be exploited to write the non-linear within group sums of squares as a linear function (Lemma 2). An attempt is made to generalize the string property for the higher dimensional case. Third, to give some numerical examples to clarify the mathematical models and to illustrate the advantages of Integer Programming formulation by comparing with the numerical examples appearing in the literature [8], [13 ]. Zero-one programming where the integer variables can take values of zero or one only appears to be most efficient from the limited experience of the author. The paper is divided into three sections which closely correspond to the three objectives noted above. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Various methods based on Student t variates have been suggested and used for obtaining simultaneous confidence intervals for several means, or for several contrasts among means. Determination of an overall confidence level for such intervals involves evaluating the probability mass of a multivariate t distribution over a hypercube centered at the origin, with sides paralleling the coordinate planes, or obtaining bounds for this probability mass. Since such distributions involve many nuisance parameters, an impossible number of tables would be necessary in order to make exact confidence intervals. In the virtual absence of tables, approximations and bounds become important. In this paper, an attempt has been made to investigate the adequacy of certain suggested approximations [2], [5], [8] by computing the exact distributions for some particular cases. These exact distributions have been compared with approximations. This paper is concerned with two-sided confidence intervals, rather than one-sided intervals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The decision-theoretic approach to point estimation involves the choice of an estimate to minimize the expected loss associated with the estimate. The purpose of this paper is to indicate the influence of risk aversion on point estimates for classes of payoff functions including the piecewise linear and quadratic payoff functions. Increased risk aversion results in a point estimate closer to zero for a quadratic pay. off function and a lower estimate with a piecewise linear payoff function, for example. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Matrix differentiation, the procedure of finding partial derivatives of the elements of a matrix function with respect to the elements of the argument matrix, is the subject matter of this paper. The method followed here amounts to linking the differentials of the matrix function and the argument matrix, and then identifying matrices of partial derivatives. The basic assumption made is mathematical independence of the elements of the argument matrix. Matrix functions are divided into two categories: Kronecker matrix products and non-Kronecker (= ordinary) matrix products. Three definitions of partial derivatives matrices are used, to be denoted by D[sub 1], D[sub 2] and D[sub 3] in this abstract. D[sub 2] and D[sub 3] are applied to Kronecker products, D[sub 1] is applied to ordinary products. This is a matter of efficiency only. D[sub 1] is developed first. Transforming matrices into column vectors turns out to be very convenient. D[sub 2] and D[sub 3] are developed then. D[sub 3] is a generalisation of D[sub 1]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the early years of the eighteenth century A. De Moivre, N. Bernoulli, and P. R. Montmort found three solutions for the following problem of games of chance: Two players, A and B, play a series of games. In each game, independently of the others, either A wins a counter from B with probability p or B wins a counter from A with probability q (p + q = 1). The series ends if either A wins a total number of a counters from B or B wins a total number of b counters from A. What is the probability that A wins the series in at most n games? Denote this probability by P[sub n](a,b). In this paper simple and elementary proofs are given for the various formulas for P[sub n](a,b). Furthermore, it is shown how these formulas can be applied in the theories of order statistics, random walks, storage, queues, Brownian motion, and dams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a theoretical framework for the unrelated question randomized response technique suggested by Walt R. Simmons. The statistical efficiency of this technique is compared with the Warner technique under situations of both truthful and untruthful responses. Methods of allocating the total sample to each of two subsamples required by the unrelated question approach are developed. Recommendations are made concerning choices of values for those parameters which can be assigned at the discretion of the investigator. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to make the reader aware of the applicability and advantage of a particular mathematical model. The application is typified by an example and the advantage is via confidence intervals; that is, shorter confidence intervals are possible using the model than if one ignores it, providing the applicability is valid. It is also shown that an improved estimate can be obtained through use of the model. Let f(y|mu, sigma) be a normal density with mean mu and variance sigma[sup 2] and let g(mu|lambda, beta) be a normal density with mean lambda and variance beta[sup 2]. A sequence y[sub 1], y[sub 2],..., y[sub n+1] of independent observations from the mixture off and g can be considered as follows: An unobservable mu [sub i] is first drawn from g(mu|lambda, beta) and then y[sub i] which can be observed is drawn from f(y|mu[sub i], sigma). Confidence intervals on mu[sub n+1] are obtained which are based on the observations y[sub 1],..., y[sub n+1] and which are shorter than the standard interval based on y[sub n+1] only for any n. Shorter intervals are obtained for two cases: (i) lambda unknown, sigma, beta known; (ii) only sigma/beta = c known. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a linear regression model, when errors are autocorrelated, several asymptotically efficient estimators of parameters have been suggested in the literature. In this paper we study their small sample efficiency using Monte Carlo methods. While none of these estimators turns out to be distinctly superior to the others over the entire range of parameters, there is a definite gain in efficiency to be had from using some two-stage procedure in the presence of moderate high levels of serial correlation in the residuals and very little loss from using such methods when the true rho is small. Where computational costs are a consideration a mixed strategy of switching to a second stage only if the estimated rho is higher than some critical value is suggested and is shown to perform quite well over the whole parameter range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a reparameterization of the conventional log-linear regression model. This reparameterization is shown to be more reasonable than the conventional specification. The stochastic assumptions of this reparameterized model are derived from the expected value properties of the dependent variable. Comparison with the conventional method of fitting log-linear models shows the regression intercept and the variance of the regression intercept to be different. A minimum variance unbiased estimate and another consistent estimate of the intercept are derived. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of a Monte Carlo study of the accuracy of an approximation to the power of the chi-square goodness of fit test with small but equal expected frequencies. Various combinations of sample size, number of groups, and alpha level are considered, and in most instances the actual power of the test is estimated to be less than the nominal power. The degree of accuracy appears to be more related to the size of the sample than to the size of the expected frequencies. The following rule of thumb is offered for obtaining crude estimates of the actual power from the nominal power for sample sizes from 10 to 50: The actual power of the test equals about eight-tenths of the nominal power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper takes a few steps toward alleviating problems of data analysis that arise from the fact that elementary expressions for density and cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.'s) for most stable distributions are unknown. In section 2 results of Bergstrom [3] are used to develop numerical approximations for the c.d.f.'s and the inverse functions of the c.d.f.'s of symmetric stable distributions. Tables of the c.d.f.'s and their inverse functions are presented for twelve values of the characteristic exponent. In section 3 the usefulness of the numerical c.d.f.'s and their inverse functions in estimating the parameters of stable distributions and testing linear models involving stable variables is discussed. Finally, section 4 presents a Monte Carlo study of truncated means as estimates of location. In every case but the Gaussian, some truncated mean is shown to have smaller sampling dispersion than the full mean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sequence of births occurring in a closed female population subject to constant schedules of fertility and mortality can be represented as [Multiple line equation(s) cannot be represented in ASCII text] where only one coefficient (Q[sub 0]) and one exponent (r[sub 0]) are real. Convergence to a stable population occurs a few years after all complex components in B(t) have become negligible relative to the one real component. The rate of convergence of B(t) to a real exponential function depends on the age schedules of fertility and mortality, and on the initial age distribution. Methods of determining the coefficients and exponents of the terms of B(t) by use of a large computer are described in this paper, and various significant characteristics of the terms are given. Methods are described for visualizing how convergence would occur in a particular human population on the basis of recorded features of its fertility, mortality, and age composition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objectives of this paper are to examine the mean square error criterion for rejecting or adopting restrictions on the parameter space in a regression model, and to develop a uniformly most powerful testing procedure for the criterion. We present a tabulation of critical points for the test for one restriction and selected points of the power function. The mean square error criterion suggests a framework for thinking about the problem of multicollinearity in a linear model. To this end we present some examples to illustrate the linkage of the mean square error criterion with multicollinearity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An algorithm for the determination of the economic design of X-charts based on Duncan's model is described in this paper. This algorithm consists of solving an implicit equation in design variables n (sample size) and k (control limit factor) and an explicit equation for h (sampling interval). The use of this algorithm not only yields the exact optimum but also provides valuable information so that the sensitivity of the optimum loss-cost (L*) can be evaluated. Loss-cost contours are used to discuss the nature of the loss-cost surface and the effect of the design variables. The effect of two parameters, the delay factor (e), and the average time for an assignable cause to occur (1/lambda), on the optimum design is evaluated. Numerical examples are used for illustrations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a method of constructing conservative joint confidence regions for the parameters of a linear model and the volumes of these regions are compared with the volume of an exact confidence region. Confidence regions on the entire surface are obtained from the confidence region on the parameters. The procedures are illustrated for the case of a simple linear model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper carries on work in [2] and [4] on the asymptotic effects of small specification error in simultaneous equation estimation. The specification errors considered are inherent in the approximate nature of econometric models. It is shown that for any parameter and small enough specification error, the probability limits of two-stage least squares and limited-information maximum-likelihood, while different, lie on the same side of the true parameter value, the difference between them being of the second order of smalls relative to the effects of the specification error on either one of them. A method of consistently estimating the sign of the difference of the effects of specification error on the two estimators is given and a procedure suggested for choosing an estimator to reduce those effects. Two relatively simple examples are worked out. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper the problem of choosing among point estimators on the basis of their small sample properties is discussed from the sampling point of view. The indeterminacy of most Monte Carlo studies is analysed and resolved within the framework of statistical decision theory. A first order autoregressive model is worked through in detail both for its own sake and to illustrate how a complete Monte Carlo study might be done. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In applied problems one often wishes to compare the mortality experience of two or more groups of individuals who are known not to be comparable with respect to a covariable. This paper presents an approach to this problem by assuming that the force of mortality for each individual is a function of the covariable. Extension to the case where more than one covariable is present is indicated. It is also suggested that the present method is adaptable to an actuarial type analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Revenue Act of 1954 permitted entrepreneurs for the first time to make use of the double declining balance (DDB) and sum of the year's digits (SYD) methods of depreciation in place of the customary straight line method (SL). The tax advantages from using such methods are well known.(n1) In spite of these advantages, however, the accelerated methods in many cases appear to have been adopted only slowly over the years. Clearly any attempt to determine the effect on investment of such provisions must rely on knowledge of the extent of their use. Unfortunately there is no direct information available, nor do estimates exist, for the two-digit manufacturing industries on the fraction of investment in each year since 1954 written off by accelerated methods. In this paper an attempt is made simultaneously to estimate such figures on an annual basis and to fit a learning curve to them.(n2) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We derive Neyman's locally asymptotically most powerful test criterion to test a linear hypothesis, and in particular, obtain such criteria to test linear hypotheses in binomial and multinomial experiments. We also discuss testing log-linear hypotheses in the parameters of a multinomial experiment, and give a simple criterion for testing the hypothesis of no second order interaction in a p x q x r (p, q, r, > 2) contingency table. Asymptotic tests of the hypotheses mentioned above are available in the literature, but the tests proposed in this paper are simple and are based on explicit optimality consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper confidence bands are given for simple linear model. The confidence bands that are given are straight lines rather than curves and are either (1) parallel or (2) trapezoidal. The confidence bands are over a finite length interval. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we review the derivation of the predictive density function for the normal multiple regression model, state and prove a general theorem on optimal point prediction, and show how the predictive density can be employed in the analysis of an illustrative investment problem. Then we derive the predictive density function for the multivariate normal regression model and indicate how it can be used in the analysis of several problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Jorgenson and Lovell axiomatizations of the process of seasonal adjustment are contrasted in this paper. It is argued that dummy variables rather than data subject to prior seasonal adjustment should be employed when time series are utilized in estimating the parameters of a linear economic model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]