I have examined cross-section evidence on differential fertility in Israel, focusing on the relation between education and fertility. The interpretation of this relation as reflecting the relation between education and the cost of women's time and the relation between cost of time and the "price" of children is helpful in understanding some of the phenomena; what is left unexplained is the large decline in fertility at the bottom of the education ladder.
This sharp decline may be dominated by informational and cultural differences concerning family planning, of the sort suggested by sociologists (see, e.g., the evidence presented by Bachi and Matras [1962], Matras and Auerbach [1962], and Peled [1969]). Several pieces of evidence are consistent with a view that most of the cross-section and time-series variation in fertility reflects differential movement to a low level of fertility where the long-term optima do not vary much. (Thus, see the very flat curve relating fertility to education among couples of European origin married in Israel.)
Even if such a view were to be accepted, the need for explaining the mechanisms of transition remains. The possibilities of the simple cost-of-time hypothesis are far from exhausted in this paper: a more explicit treatment of the cost of time (see Gronau's paper in this Supplement), a more satisfactory treatment of husbands' lifetime or permanent income, and a fertility variable that takes timing and survival into account are some of the more immediate needs. What seems to be quite important is a simultaneous examination of several aspects of behavior.
In the specific Israeli context, I regard as the main challenge the understanding of the differentials between those born in Europe-America, Asia-Africa, and Israel and the linking of the cross section to the changes over time. The unexplained differences between these groups are partly a result of measurement problems of the economic variables. Better u... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]