1. The Discovery of Areas of Potential Social Disturbance in the City.
- Author
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Bechtel, Robert B.
- Subjects
- *
SOCIOECONOMICS , *ECONOMIC forecasting , *POPULATION , *HYPOTHESIS , *MOTIVATION (Psychology) , *SOCIOLOGY - Abstract
One of the most enduring hypotheses concerning which aggregate of a population is likely to rebel was put forth by Kropotkin (1930). Simply stated, this hypothesis sees the "emerging groups," those not at the lowest socio-economic level but on some higher level as being the most likely for social disturbance or revolt. But this hypothesis by itself is not comprehensive enough to account for the fact that some emerging groups experience social disturbance and others do not. A dynamic or motivational component is necessary. Cantril (1965) provides such a mechanism with his aspirational theory and the self-anchoring scale to operationalize his concept. The dynamic component that accounts for social disturbance is the unsatisfied aspiration level. In various studies in foreign countries Cantril (1967) showed that revolt in the Dominican Republic or lack of support for any attempt to overthrow Castro could be predicted by measuring aspiration levels on the self-anchoring scale. His predictions were confirmed by subsequent events. The riot of April, 1968, in Kansas City, Missouri provides a definitive example to test Cantril's aspiration theory. This riot is especially instructive in that it shows how with the use of the self-anchoring scale and a very few socio-economic measures one can predict the areas of the city most likely to have social disturbances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 1971
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