1. ON THE STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY IN THE REVISED U. S. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS.
- Author
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Adams, F. Gerard and de Janosi, Peter E.
- Subjects
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ACCOUNTS , *ERRORS , *STATISTICS , *IRREGULARITIES of distribution (Number theory) , *NATIONAL income accounting , *ESTIMATES , *GROSS national product , *ECONOMETRIC models , *STATISTICAL correlation - Abstract
As is well known, the U. S. national accounts contain a "Statistical Discrepancy" which serves to reconcile estimates of GNP from the product and from the income side. While the Discrepancy is a measure only of overall consistency rather than of error, its magnitude and pattern over time (to give some indication of the quality of the nation:d accounts data. In the past, the Statistical Discrepancy has not always behaved as a quantitatively unimportant random error term--a disturbing sign with regard to the GNP statistics. The presence of a systematic Discrepancy also causes difficulties in some specific problems. For example, it is necessary to assume a value for the Discrepancy in the identities of an econometric model when forecasts are made. The Discrepancy can also seriously affect estimates involving those GNP categories, such as savings, which are customarily calculated as residuals with the consequence that the Discrepancy is allocated to them. Earlier studies of the Discrepancy by Gartaganis and Goldberger [3], and by de Janosi [2], have shown: (1) A positive mean value for the Statistical Discrepancy (in the 1929-1959 data, X=$485 million, and sigma=$1,515 million) (2) No significant evidence of non-normality (3) Some evidence of autocorrelation (4) A declining trend in the statistical discrepancy relative to GNP in the most recent data. The purpose of the present note is, first, to see how the Discrepancy has behaved since the completion of this earlier work and, specifically, to examine the Discrepancy in the 1965 revision of the United States national accounts statistics. Secondly, we will study the movement of the Discrepancy with respect to GNP and with respect to the main components of the national accounts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 1966
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